2010 BCB Community Projections: Starting Pitchers
by Al Yellon on Mar 30, 2010 8:00 AM CDT
in Community Projections
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PrintAt last, I have received the projections for starting pitchers from SWL. Since these were done quite some time ago, it was before Carlos Silva was named to the starting rotation; his projection will appear in the bullpen post.
I've been assured that the numbers are calculated properly for these. Frankly, I find them a bit optimistic, but if they all come out the way we call 'em -- or even close -- this is likely to be a good year.
Full numbers after the jump.
Carlos Zambrano: W-17 L-8 IP-205 H-170 ER-85 BB-83 SO-181 ERA-3.75 WHIP-1.23
For Z, projections for ejections ranged from 0 to 3.14, and for HR, from 0 to 73. Most common HR number for Z was 4.
Ryan Dempster: W-15 L-8 IP-203 H-177 ER-74 BB-67 SO-171 ERA-3.30 WHIP-1.20
Randy Wells: W-13 L-9 IP-187 H-170 ER-73 BB-53 SO-125 ERA-3.53 WHIP-1.19
Ted Lilly: W-13 L-8 IP-175 H-150 ER-70 BB-48 SO-144 ERA-3.60 WHIP-1.13
For Ted, "catchers run over" ranged from 0 to 9841. Most common number was 1; someone mentioned "A.J." as the one.
Tom Gorzelanny: W-9 L-7 IP-131 H-123 ER-55 BB-51 SO-99 ERA-3.78 WHIP-1.33
For Gorz, holds ranged from 0 to 18; most common number was 5.
Sean Marshall: W-6 L-5 IP-94 H-86 ER-39 BB-36 SO-69 ERA-3.72 WHIP-1.30
For Marshall, holds ranged from 7 to 40; most common number was 9. Also for Sean, for both saves and blown saves, numbers ranged from 0 to 5.
As I noted, some of these seem optimistic, but if the starting staff can put up these numbers -- and each of these pitchers is capable of such a year -- it'll be a good year on the North Side.
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That would be 67 wins among the starters
Best in the league last year was, what, 70? I know Boston was second with 68.
If the starters are good for 67 wins, we’ll easily get 92 or more overall.
[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."
Do people really think the Cubs have the best (or one of the best) rotations in the league?
Because like you say, that is what the average person thinks here (not just the most optimistic — these are averages of koolaid guzzlers and ledge jumpers).
The number of wins wasn’t quite as out-there as the winning % of .619 across all starters, and the fact the no starter has a sub-.500 winning %, and the fact that no starter has an ERA over 3.78….
And that high win %
indicates people think the offense is going to be real good too…..
Remember, Zambrano pitched pretty well last year and came up short on W’s….
All in fun. I’m an optimist, but I also don’t like being disappointed all the time!
Like I said.
I think these are a bit optimistic.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Not unlike the offensive predictions
although those were toned down somewhat when SWL recalculated them.
yes
I think that the Cubs have one of the best rotations in the league.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Mar 30, 2010 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions
There's a surprise...
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Mar 30, 2010 10:00 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I think it's a stretch
With Silva taking over for Harden. (Or even Gorz/Marshall, as was projected earlier).
Silva is a #5. I don't care about Silva.
With Z, Demp, Lilly and Wells, we have the best rotation in the NL central.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Mar 30, 2010 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions
It's not necessarily 'the best' rotations that get that many W's
It’s the rotations that get good run production consistently. It was the Cubs’ big flaw last year. If RISP improves and the scoring average goes up, I don’t see this as impossible.
[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."
by NobodySpecial on Mar 30, 2010 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions
It's not the run production.
It’s the bullpen. Last year’s Cubs had 94 quality starts — 2nd in the NL. If the Cubs had any decent relievers last year, they might have stayed in contention longer.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Then I'd say it's both
A quality start is nice, but not if your team scores fewer than three runs as well, which we all know was a problem last year with so many bats out of the lineup. They were 5th in the NL in runs against. but 10th in runs scored – behind even the lowly Nationals.
[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."
by NobodySpecial on Mar 30, 2010 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions
Oh, I'm not saying offense wasn't a problem last year.
Clearly, it was. But the bullpen was also a serious issue.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
A reason, no doubt, why Marshall will start the year in the bullpen
One of Lee Elia's 15%
by waiting4cubs on Mar 30, 2010 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Starters are Ok and our pen is OK, I worry about Marmol.
I did not like what I’ve seen with the walks again. Our youthful pen knows they have to fight every day to stay or they will be replaced. I like that. but Marmol has to throw strikes.
This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).
Agree!
Not only do balls and walks cause no end of trouble, but they build up Marmol’s pitch count which can limit the number of games he can appear in.
One of Lee Elia's 15%
by waiting4cubs on Mar 30, 2010 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions
Fortunately...
… there are a couple of relievers who could step in and close if Marmol fails. Grabow, for example. Or even Caridad.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Stolen base total
I’d like to see us push 80—one every other game—but not a speed team.
Sori—15
Colvin-10
Byrd 10
Theriot-20 (conservative?)
Fontenot-5
Where the other 20 gonna come from? Last year I think we stole around 50. Fook isn’t a thief and Lee hardly ever runs anymore, gonna be tough to get over 60 it appears unless an infusion of speed from somehwere. Maybe Byrd can get closer to 15 and Sori 20, Theriot 25-30 tops (he gets thrown out a lot, too).
Wins from starters unrealistic I’d take 60 though and hope pen can pick up another 30.
I'd be astonished if Soriano stole 15 bases.
I think his running days are over.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
agreed-if he gets 5 I will be shocked
He looks like he is always limping in the field and on the bases.
I'd be okay with this so long as we dont have 40 CS's to go with them
Stolen bases are nice, but you need to be successful much more often than not to have a net positive effect.
At least 70%.
Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.
To get to 20 SB,
Theriot would probably have 20+ CS, he’s not a good base-stealer. This team as currently constructed is not a real threat to steal bases.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Yeah....
Like you said, Al. A bit optimistic. This is spring though… :)
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Man how I'd love them to be true!
I think Gorz is fitted more for a mid 4 ERA. I’ve just never been that high on the guy.
And I’d like to throw something out here:
Mitch Williams is AWFUL on MLB Network. I like the guy, but he chews it on the air big time. I heard two things come out of his mouth yesterday.
He was speaking of Mark Reynolds and his habit of striking out way too much. He said, “I could care less about strike outs. I don’t care how you make your outs. An out is an out. They’re all the same.” Yes, that is correct Mitch. Sac flies hold the same value as a K.
This one needs no setup. Speaking of Aaron Heilmann: “He had a tremendous year last year”. Uhhhh, what?
Its funny, you spend most of your life gripping a baseball. And in the end, its almost always the other way around.
I usually like Mitch Williams on MLBN.
He really said that about Heilman? What games was he watching?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
it was
tremendously bad.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Mar 30, 2010 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions
I like Mitch.
I think he adds a little something to the broadcast. But there are times he starts trying to keep his head above water and then grasps for anything he can blurt out. But, like I said. I still actually like him.
Its funny, you spend most of your life gripping a baseball. And in the end, its almost always the other way around.
Clearly,
None of the games Heilman pitched in.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 30, 2010 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions
A suggestion, Al ...
when you show the community projections next year, include the projections from the established non-BCB folks. These numbers look optimistic to me, but not being a stat guy, I wonder how optimistic they are in comparison.
If Da Gorz goes 9-7 I will literally
eat my own hat. I highly doubt he gets much about .500… and I think we’re all a little optimistic w/ those spring ERA’s.
We should re-do these predictions during the All Star Break and see how much our optimism has turned to pessimism (or vice versa for the haters out there, you all know who you are… BLou) and then compare. Could be a fun exercise in that horrible week without real baseball.
What is a horse shoe? What does a horse shoe do? Are there any horse socks? Is anybody listening to me?
by lswaidz on Mar 30, 2010 9:25 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I just hope we're not in a position where his W/L's
will decide whether or not the team is doing well… Hopefully the top of the rotation anchors things nicely and the 5th starter is an afterthought.
What is a horse shoe? What does a horse shoe do? Are there any horse socks? Is anybody listening to me?
And who knows, maybe Silva will continue to astound us all... :) :) :)
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
FanGraphs introduced "fan projections" this year
They found that fans tended to be unrealistically optimistic.
There are 2430 wins and 2430 losses in a MLB season, and the fans under-projected the losses by about 400, or about 7 per 162 games. Also, fans projected a cumulative ERA of 3.98, rather than the roughly 4.3 that is the norm. It’s unsurprising to me that a community of Cubs fans would be bullish on these projections.
http://www.fivetoolfans.com
For Ted, “catchers run over” ranged from 0 to 9841. Most common number was 1; someone mentioned “A.J.” as the one.
That would be AWESOME.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
If it had to be one, I'm hopeful it's AJ
Not because he’s on the other team in town. Just don’t like the guy
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
I've lowered my ceiling for Zambrano. I'm done thinking he can be a legit ace. He's a high- paid #2.
Wells doesn’t have a string of success (yet), Lilly is recovering, etc. I see success from Dempster, and the rest I have no idea. We need another starter that doesn’t suck.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Mar 30, 2010 10:05 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
I think Dempster should start game one since Lilly isn't ready.
I agree Z is not an ace.
Though the numbers are a bit high in the predictions, it won’t matter if the bullpen does not do the job. I hope the starters are ready to go deep into games…..
I think Z is going to surprise a lot of you this year.
BTW, the rotation will have Dempster starting the home opener on April 12.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Z looks pretty trim from the ST pics I've seen
Hopefully that means he’s serious about staying in shape (physically AND mentally). If he’s got a renewed dedication to his craft, and really plans to hang them up soon, maybe he can rip off a few 20-win seasons before he rides off into the sunset.
What is a horse shoe? What does a horse shoe do? Are there any horse socks? Is anybody listening to me?
I'm with you on that Al,
Z might not be an “ace” but he’s the best we’ve got when he’s on. Looking forward to seeing how Demp looks up close during the home opener, I’ll be sitting behind the scouts behind home plate. We need big seasons from both guys to compete this year.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Al, we say that EVERY SINGLE YEAR.
We hear the same crap—THE SAME CRAP!—from Zambrano every spring:
“I’m healthy”
“I’m more focused”
“I’ve learned to keep my cool”
“I’ve stopped IMing”
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Over the last two years for those with 300 or more innings pitched
and judging by combined ERA+ over those seasons, Big Z would qualify as the best pitcher on about one-third of all teams (20th best in MLB). Dempster was 11th best, but I have no qualms giving the guy with the longest tenure the honorary title.
The high numbers for the predictions are done by Cub fans. Lots of hopeful thinking..I hope they are correct.
It would be fun to see what we would come up with if the same people (us) did predictions for a team we didn’t like (White Sox, Cardinals). I am sure the numbers would be much lower….
IMHO
Dempster will lead the team in W’s and ERA… I love Z but every year of spring training we are fed “this is the year..I have matured.” Fool me once shame on you..Fool me twice..Shame on me.
Fool me seven years straight...
And I’m a Cubs fan.
"You’re playing a baseball game. You’re not playing Tiddlywinks. There is competition, for God’s sake."— Lou Piniella
Fool me
seven101 years straight…
And I’m a Cubs fan.
http://www.fivetoolfans.com
by mykalmorgan on Mar 30, 2010 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions
been fooled
for 101 years, have you?
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Mar 30, 2010 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm an old soul.
http://www.fivetoolfans.com
by mykalmorgan on Mar 30, 2010 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
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