I think those are the high sides for what all of those players are capable of, except for Fukudome, who will never slug .550.

…I would say yes.

Some of these may come to pass, but if everybody on this list hit these numbers, the Cubs will clearly have the best offense in baseball and probably win 115 games.

amongst the best along with ZIPS, PECOTA, etc. I’m not sure why you picked out CHONE from the group and wanted an explanation on it. If you’re really interested I’m sure you can google and read more to find out just how accurate.

But I used not only projection systems but the player’s actual career averages to make the point. In the cases of Fukudome, Lee, Ramirez, Soto, Theriot, Byrd, and Soriano the BCB projection is higher than two projection systems AND the player’s career averages. I think its safe to say that the community projections are on the high side

If your leadoff hitter is posting near .800 OPS, your 2nd hitter has a .350 OBP and your #3 and #4 hitters are looking to approach .900 OPS each, you’re going to be scoring some runs.

Player Career James Chone BCB Fantistics
Derrek Lee .873 .894 .852 .924 .902 – higher than all three
Geovany Soto .809 .830 .816 .849 .836 – higher than all three
Aramis Ramirez .847 .878 .861 .954 .869 – higher than all but James
Jeff Baker .782 .797 .741 .779 .792 – higher than all but James
Ryan Theriot .726 .709 .715 .735 .669 – lower than all three
Alfonso Soriano .836 .807 .779 .851 .825 – higher than all but James, including BCB
Marlon Byrd .762 .778 .793 .807 .755 – lower than all three
Fukudome .767 .792 .769 .950 .773 – higher than all but Chone

I don’t really disagree that the BCB numbers are likely a bit optimistic – frankly I would hope that Cub fans would be more positive on Cub players than computer projection systems.

However, it should be pointed out that your system isn’t really all that different than the BCB projections with the exceptions of Byrd and Theriot, who, it could be argued that your system is likely too negative on based on the same logic that the BCB projections are too positive on the rest of the players.

In the end, it is likely that some players will have much better years than we are expecting (Lee 2009) some far weaker years (Soriano 2009). The hope is that the happy surprises will out weigh the not so happy surprises.

that Ramirez being injured, Soto showing up fat and out of shape, and other things that happened had nothing to do with MB’s presence. I was alluding more to the idea that when there’s good chemistry within the team, results on the field can improve. Not that it’s guaranteed to, but I remember there being a Muscat interview on MLB.com that described MB’s being sent home being celebrated as if the team just won the series. That kind of a clubhouse demeanor can bring down the team as a whole. That’s why I think the changes this offseason will result in better numbers, because guys will be excited to play everyday and to put in the work they need to. Plus the sting of how bad they were will be more motivation, as already seen with Soto.

Well, he hasn’t come close in two full years with the Cubs and he’s getting older.

….I’ll bet the RBI total for Lee, Soriano, Soto and Ramirez is much closer to 300 than 400. Also, if one of these guys goes down (or has a crappy year), their total could be under 300.