Is Alfonso Soriano a Better Leadoff Hitter than Ryan Theriot?
by DGU on Apr 19, 2010 7:48 AM CDT
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This fanpost is not arguing we should return Soriano to the leadoff spot. Rather, the point is that if you thought Soriano was bad as a lead-off hitter, Ryan Theriot is worse. This claim isn't based on the small sample of 2010 stats, but rather based on what we know about these hitters, without overlooking Soriano's disastrous 2009.
What do we want out of a lead-off hitter? First and foremost, we want a hitter who gets on base a lot to give the middle of the lineup RBI chances. Because he's on base before our best hitters, we want him to be a good base-runner, not just fast. Next, we want our lead-off hitter to create runs with his bat, because he'll be batting more than anyone else. It would also help if the lead-off hitter sees a lot of pitches to show the rest of the lineup the starter's repertoire and to get him laboring early. One of the complaints about Soriano as a lead-off hitter was his inconsistency. The argument is that a lead-off hitter should be counted on to have a professional approach day in and day out.
By this criteria, Theriot is a worse lead-off hitter than Soriano. As for consistency, in 2010, Theriot was a different kind of hitter month to month, but that may be on account of the power hitting experiment, which we shouldn't expect to be repeated. More to the point of consistency, note how he really struggled against fly ball pitchers and power pitchers, hitting .216/.287/.328 against the latter.
Last year, Theriot ranked 15th in the number of pitchers he saw per plate appearance, behind Soriano. He was 12th in runs created per 27 outs, again behind Soriano, despite Soriano's bad season. Over the past two seasons, Theriot was caught stealing on roughly a third of his attempted steals, whereas Soriano, since coming to the Cubs, has sported an excellent success rate at base-stealing.
The one thing Theriot projects to do better than Soriano is get on base. But Theriot's OBP projections top out in the low .350s, which is only slightly above Soriano's mark as Cub lead-off hitter. On his career, Theriot has hit .194/.286/.226 as the first batter in the game, and his OBP is only .326 when leading off an inning. On his career, Soriano has hit .310/.350/.620 as the first batter in the game.
The fact is that the Cubs don't have anyone who does all we want from a lead-off hitter. That fact makes it worth prioritizing what is most important from a lead-off hitter with a willingness to look for outside-the-box options.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Fukudome & Byrd would be a good solution.
Unfortunately, Lou appears willing to do only half of that, and leading off Byrd vs LHP only gets him there for maybe 1/4 to 1/3 of games.
It should happen three times vs. the Mets, though.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Who do you hit 5th v. RHP?
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
Oh, so who hits #2 v. RHP?
I thought you were suggesting Fukudome and Byrd bat 1-2 v. RHP.
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
No, I think you misunderstood me.
Fukudome should lead off vs. RHP, Byrd should lead off vs. LHP.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
who bats second against RHP?
Theriot?
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
by Nunyabidness on Apr 19, 2010 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions
I'd go with Fontenot, and hit Theriot 8th.
But that’s just me.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
That still leaves a top-of-the-order hole...
Against RHP, if Byrd moves down to fifth, then the question remains open. Who joins Fukudome in the 1/2 slots. That’s, as you said, like 70-75% of the games.
A big part of me wants to just say “Byrd and Fukudome at the top all of the time.” That would make the bottom of the order Soriano (5th), Fontenot/Baker, Soto, Theriot.
If Theriot could get into the .360-.370 OBP, I’d be okay with him in the top 2.
I wonder if he does well that they would leave him alone there?
Who is the leadoff man when Byrd isn’t? According to Lou?
I can't think of too many people on here who wanted either player to hit leadoff.
I believe the choice of most was Dome.
My position on this hasn't changed.
Theriot has hit LHP well in his career, so there’s no reason to move him out of the lead-off spot vs. lefties. Lou is overracting to a tiny sample size this season. Against RHP, however, Theriot should be in the eighth spot – precisely where Lou is moving him to vs. lefties. Blurg.
All I know is...
…the last time the Cubs had a legit leadoff hitter, they finished of the year pretty damn good in 03 and go within 5 outs of a WS.
Since that time, not only have the Cubs been piss poor from the leadoff spot, they haven’t exactly been stellar in the 2 hole since that time either.
With cold weather and good pitchers, it’s very difficult to be successful in the playoffs if you aren’t strong in the 1 and 2 holes (and we saw that in 07 and 08).
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Do you think Dome
works as a 1 or 2 hitter? Or does his lack of base-stealing ability nix it for you?
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
Against righties...
…the best leadoff candidate they have is Dome.
He gets on base, which is priority number one and although he doesn’t have great speed, he is one of the Cub’s better baserunners (sort of like being the tallest midget)
I also like him at 2 (against RH’s), but he is their best choice to leadoff IMO.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Also...
…the Cubs don’t really have a guy that is going to put legit concern into an oppossing pitcher in regards to stealing bases.
In time, the best base stealing threat they may have is Tyler Colvin.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
So, would you bat
Dome and Colvin in some 1-2 combo, ideally?
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
Considering their roster...
…I don’t see why you couldn’t.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Ryan Theriot is currently our worst hitter:
.235/.273/.255/.528 OPS +: 37
I don’t care where he hits, as long as it’s with another team.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
If he doesn't turn things around
He probably won’t end up anywhere except as a coach.
And the eighth and final rule: if this is your first time at Fight Club, you have to fight.
He will hit better...
…than he has, but he is still an 8 hitter on a team that is going anywhere.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
yeah, I know.
but they’re all at leadoff!
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 19, 2010 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions
You can't use small sample sizes to your advantage when you feel like it and ignore them other times.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
The larger sample sizes don't paint a pretty picture of Theriot at leadoff either
However, the one situation where it does make a lot of sense to stick him there is against LHP. Which, for some reason, Lou has decided not to do.
when you can demonstrate that I've done this
I suppose you can make that statement. I’ve wanted Riot to not hit leadoff since the first day he hit leadoff.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 19, 2010 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions
I think Lou knows...
…that Theriot will end up hitting better than he has been, but he also if very aware of Theriot’s limitations.
Lou has been known to experiment quite a bit in April and May to find the right fit for the roster he has. In 07, he did this very well and it paid off. In 08 and 09, the team was more set and he didn’t have the bench depth to do a lot of experimenting.
Here is the bottom line; the Cubs don’t have a well rounded leadoff hitter on their roster and they haven’t for several years. Now is the time to see what you have and how the pieces fit together.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I miss Kenny Lofton.
"It's Spring Training. You know how many home runs Barry Bonds hit off me? One - in Spring Training." - Big Z
I don't know how to use the quote feature, but...
You said… “The one thing Theriot projects to do better than Soriano is get on base.”
That IS the ultimate job of the leadoff hitter. Any hitter, but especially the leadoff hitter.
And as for Theriot seeing less pitches per plate appearance… who cares? It’s not about see as many pitches as you can in an at bat. It’s about waiting for the right pitch and then swinging at it. Being selective. And I don’t think anyone on this site will argue that Soriano is more selective than Theriot.
They’re both bad options to leadoff. But if it has to be between the two of them, I’ll take the guy who gets on base more.
Seeing more pitches in the leadoff spot...
…wears down the pitcher and allows the leadoff hitter and his teammates to see more of that pitcher’s, uh, pitches. So it is an important stat for top-of-the-order batters. Kosuke has always excelled in this category.
Well right...
I’m aware of the value that it can provide to your teammates. But taking pitches just for the sake of taking pitches is counter-productive.
My point was that it shouldn't be either one of them.
And if OBP is the only issue, then why not Soto over Theriot?
As for pitches per plate appearance, I disagree. You want at least one if not both of yoru 1-2 guys to see a lot of pitches for two reasons: 1) because starting pitchers are limited in the number of pitches they can throw, and 2) because you want to give your hitters a chance to see what this guy’s pitches look like today. If the starter only has to throw his fastball and changeup in the first inning, because your hitters all thought the first pitch they saw was their pitch to hit…
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
Rickey Says.......
That Rickey Henderson could be the leadoff hitter the Cubs need. Has he officially retired yet?
Well, he's in the Hall of Fame.
So, yes. That doesn’t mean he can’t UNretire. He’s only 50…
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
So the poll surprised me.
At this point, Starlin Castro is the leader, running at nearly 1-in-5 respondents. Those who think Castro should be the guy, do you think he’s ready for that right out of the chute? Or do you hope he can end up there eventually?
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
eventually
sticking a stud in the limelight right away isnt smart, even heyward started out in the 7 hole
"The roar from the crowd really fired me up," Burish said. "In warmups there were a lot of signs. One said 'Burish, my grandma is pregnant.' I don't know what that means. I skated by it and said, 'it's not mine.' "
by jesus christos on Apr 19, 2010 9:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree with this
But if he hits well for a couple weeks with the big club and we’re still having this discussion, throw him up there.
Ya i meant Eventually.
I just figured at some point he will be with the big league club this season.
SKOL VIKINGS 2010!!
Another interesting question is:
who is the better defensive Cub left fielder, Alfonso Soriano or Cliff Johnson? And Johnson does get to wear his batting helmet in the field.
Ok -
and who hits #2 – this is the big question. It’s easy to put Dome at 1. But Riot at 2 makes no more sense than Riot at 1. At least batting first, Riot’s less likely to hit into a GIDP, something that will always plague him with his hitting style.
Right now, I’m pretty sold on:
Soto
Dome
Lee
Rami
Byrd
Sori
Fonty
Riot
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
Well, Geo has been very selective at the plate...
…and he’s lost quite a bit of weight. (Hey, that rhymes.)
Sue would like to take him
on a date.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 20, 2010 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions
I can write them on time, and not at all late.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 20, 2010 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
He really does look great.
It’s just those eyebrows I hate.
"Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air."-Pat Hughes
by katie casey on Apr 20, 2010 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Why not?
He can’t run, but no one on the team really bugs pitching staffs with their running, so with that taken away….
Who’s the best bet to walk to get on base? Soto.
Who’s got the discipline to work the count and see a lot of pitches? Soto.
Who’s one of our best OBP sources when his AVG is working? Soto.
Who’s currently leading the team in RC27? Soto.
And where’s Soto’s slow speed least likely to hurt the team – ahead of the guys most likely to get XBH.
Once you say, “We’ve got no one who can annoy pitchers with their speed” Soto answers all the other lead-off wishes. Plus, Soto’s not really going to slow down Dome or DLee on the basepaths. If it’s really a concern about him slowing DLee, then swap DLee and Rami in the lineup and see if that gets Rami going anyway.
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
Wouldn't Kosuke still be the better choice vs. RHP?
I mean, I would answer as “Fukudome” to your first couple questions.
Soto-Dome 1-2
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
For me
Dome fits so well at #2 on our team, that moving him to #1, only shifts the question down one lineup spot.
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
So Kosuke would be better as the No. 2 hitter because...
…he hits left-handed and would be better at advancing the runner?
Well
I do believe in breaking up the righties; and you also like having the hole on the the right side opened up for the lefty hitter.
That’s the one negative to batting Dome first – batting behind Riot and the pitcher, he’ll rarely have someone on 1B to open that hole.
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
Dome would be good at 2...
…but the question becomes this; are there other guys on the club that can do ok in the 2 hole vs how much better Dome would be at leadoff?
It really comes down to the combination you have in the 1 and 2 hole, and I just believe this combo is critical to having a balanced offense.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I know you're big on the base-running at the top
so what do you say to Soto-Dome 1-2?
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
Don't like that...
….and as the year goes on, Soto it will be clear why Soto should not sniff the one or two hole.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
TWS...
aw, never mind…
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 20, 2010 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Is that because you don't buy Soto at all?
I at least buy him for a .365 OBP, if not the SLG of prior years.
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
I'd put whoever plays 2B 2nd..........
Baker or Fontenot. Both are hitting well.
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