When is a team out of contention?
by tharr on Apr 19, 2010 11:22 PM CDT
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PrintObviously we can all understand when a team has been mathematically eliminated. However, we all have different ideas about when we feel a season is over and it's time to look ahead to the following year. Since 2000 the Cubs have had only 1 season where they won 90 games. St. Louis, on the other hand, has had six, including two over 100. While the rest of our division has only one season with 90 wins, you would suspect our win totals should have been higher.
The wild card seems to add a possibility to win fewer games and sneak into the playoffs, but the win total for wild card teams since 2000 include only two with less than 90 wins, one at 89, the other at 88. So essentially we will probably need close to 90 wins to either win the division or enter as a wild card team.
With that in mind, let's assume the Cubs will need a minimum number of 88 wins to make the playoffs. Now the question I propose is this. At what point would you essentially suggest the season was over to make the playoffs? I know it's possible to win 15 in a row, but let's be honest. Is it reasonable to expect any team to go on a streak like that?
There is no right or wrong answer. We all look at a Cub season from an emotional bias. None of us want them to be eliminated. We all hope miracles happen. But how many times have we been surprised by a mid season comeback that propelled us into October baseball? I'm not talking about miracle teams that surprised us out of the gate but teams that struggled and suddenly caught fire.
How many games under .500 would make you think it was unreasonable to make the playoffs? Not impossible, merely unreasonable.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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There's really no way to answer this.
Being a certain amount of games over .500 doesn’t guarantee you anything. It all depends on the record of the other teams your division and, to a lesser degree, on the records of the teams in the wild-card race.
It depends
If we’re say 10 games under .500 on June 15, but have had a massive number of injuries with players set to come back, we’re in better shape than if we were only 5 games under .500 at full strength. It also depends on how well our opponents are doing. I will say that nobody’s out of contention in April.
Brad Miller is god.
Obviously it depends on how many games under .500 and that point in the season
and that point in the season they are at. Basically, to have 88 wins means you need to be 88-74, which is 14 games over .500
If on Aug 1 they were .500, they would need to play 18-11 in Aug and Sept for them to sniff a CHANCE at post season play. Let’s be real, if this particular team is is only .500 on Aug 1, I’d say they’re toast.
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
As an aside
So far, this team, even without the Bradley circus, looks the same as last year. I think most folks agreed that the Cubs needed to get out of the gate in good shape, and thus far, we are making poor teams look good. We have a knack of not being able to hit pitchers that we haven’t seen before and our bases loaded run production is in the mud still.
I hope that our window didn’t close with this team 2 years ago and Cubs management is hoping to catch fire in a bottle again. All I see is the more of the same.
I like Colvin and Wells and they are good players to build around, but this may be the last hurrah for this squad. The Bradley/DeRosa/Wood debacle cost this team dearly. Z is still Z, thankfully Demp is still Demp. The bull pen is a mess and Lou still doesn’t use them properly.
I continue to cheer them on, but like last year, I am not emotionally invested in this team like in 2007 and 2008. My outlook is simply “meh” for the 2010 Cubs. I thought that they would be better than the pundits said coming out of ST, but I don’t see it. I don’t see the Cards as a juggernaut, but they are more sound than the Cubs by a long shot.
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
Wow
My comments in a post made after this (but in a different thread) are similar to yours, so I apologize. I hadn’t seen your comments when I posted my thoughts (window closing two years ago, catching lightning in a bottle, etc.). I wasn’t in any way trying to steal what you wrote.
"See the stars they're shining bright, everything's alright tonight."
by markleonette on Apr 20, 2010 3:38 AM CDT up reply actions
No worries
Superior minds tend to think alike, I always say! ;)
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
I have to agree with you
As we saw the past winter, Hendry was effectively limited in his options because of all the bad back loaded contracts. I would have thought our starters might compensate for the lack of offense. But his inability to get a quality setup man looks to be the kiss of death. When you settle for a guy with a lifetime 1.45 WHIP, you asking for for problems. And Lou’s already showing his poor judgment in pitching decisions. I’m fearful he may go overboard with high pitch counts after already placing 2 guys over the 120 pitch count this past week.
I’m hard pressed to see much improvement over last year. Theriot seems a shell of his former self and Zambrano hasn’t had a good start yet. Soto is improved but this offense is worse than last year’s. Anything is possible but I sense another long frustrating year.
I looked at our playoff years and the furthest we fell behind was 1998 when we finished 2nd to the Astros who won 102 that year. However we did win 90. All other years we were a playoff team since 1984, we won the division.
If I was to bet, I’d think the new owners will clear the decks of many veterans by the trade deadline. The minor league talent seems deeper than ever and by 2012 we won’t be seeing a lot of familiar faces. I’d be surprised to see Zambrano here next year. I’d much rather see young talent out there if we aren’t in the hunt. As we’ve seen, Lou isn’t going to replace a veteran with a rookie so I think this is his swan song.
Until this team gets out from under the contracts of
Soriano, Fukudome and Z they’re kind of hamstrung. Especially having guys at the corner outfield positions producing as they do for the amount they make. It seems like there’s light at the end of the minor league tunnel, but Soriano’s contract alone is equal to 1/7th of the Cubs’ entire annual payroll. And they have the third highest payroll in baseball. I can’t even imagine how bad he’ll be in a year or two, let alone in four years. The Cubs’ best hope is that the division comes back to them. This team’s not winning anything close to 95 games.
Gee, I dunno...
Maybe when the number of games left to play is less than the number of games out of a playoff spot? I know I’m going out on a limb with my reasoning there, but I think it’s pretty solid.
What is a horse shoe? What does a horse shoe do? Are there any horse socks? Is anybody listening to me?
A lot of good points
Bad contracts, Lou’s inability to manage a bullpen, a bullpen that is way young, the continuance of hitters not to hit with runners on, poor defense, and baserunning that would embarrass a High School coach.
I thought this team would compete for a playoff spot. However ( yes its early) early returns: This team is not that good. This falls on Hendry and Lou.
Guess what the Cubs' record was in 2007 after 13 games?
Same as now: 5-8. And they went to nine games under .500 before recovering to win the division.
Plenty of contending teams have started out slowly. It’s way too early to declare this over.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al Yellon on Apr 20, 2010 7:18 AM CDT reply actions 5 recs
that's a good point ...
but one difference: The Cubs in April 2007 looked very different than the Cubs in July 2007. Barrett gone, Izturis benched, Soriano in left, Jones in center, Theriot at short.
I don’t see how the Cubs can change things up to that degree this year.
Why not?
We already know SS is changing, and there are seeds of change with all the OFs on roster.
It’s a lot easier to fix a bullpen than all your up-the-middle talent.
One encouraging sign – Fontenot, Soto, and Soriano all look better at the plate than last year, while Baker continues to look good.
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
I disagree...
…and as I have stated before, you may see Lou manage in a similar fashion that he did in 07.
Remember, the 08 and 09 teams were pretty established and there wasn’t much change you were going to do throughout the year. 2010, is a different story, because there are more options/depth that can be manipulated with the day to day lineup.
By late May early June, you will probably see some changes, depending on how things move along here in the next several weeks:
Colvin may get more playing time
Nady may as well
Soriano could be used less often
Castro could get the call
They may trade for a 2nd baseman
Lot’s of stuff could happen, and I think Lou will pull out all the stops this year to get the best guys on the field despite what their paycheck says.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
That's what I like to hear.
I needed some optimism.
"Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air."-Pat Hughes
It's never too early to declare it over
There were sages on this site that said it’s over as long as Hendry is the GM. It’s over this year and years into the future. It’s over for this decade for sure and most likely it’s over for the rest of the century.
I don’t even know why we are talking about this.
by jerry morales rules on Apr 20, 2010 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
That team only won 85 games.
The furthest they were under .500 was 9 on June 2. The furthest behind was 8.5 games on June 23. The Division was 54 games under .500 and was by far the worst in baseball. I’d be willing to bet 85 games won’t win a playoff spot this year. And, to be honest, I haven’t given up on the season.
The question posed was: At what point in a season would it be unreasonable to expect a playoff spot? I’d guess anytime after June when they were 10 behind and/or 10 under.
Generally, I'd agree with you there.
Thus, it’s way too early to give up.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Obviously
HOWEVER….and this is critical……
The team needs to address the problems with a sense of urgency. If we wait until the trading deadline or assume the team is just going through a slump, we are probably dooming ourselves to a poor finish. The playoffs cannot be won this early in the season. However, it can damn well be lost.
While I agree with you that wins in April are just as important as wins in September....
… it is still too early to panic.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
But it's not too early
to make changes.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
The W-L record is part of it
but you’ll also want to look at how many runs are scored by and against the team. Then, also you’ll want to look at what’s been done to change the run production and prevention. For example, I expect this bullpen to struggle a lot in the opening of the season, but we can hope Lou figures out who’s ready and who’s not and the guys themselves settle in a bit.
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
The Cubs have scored 53 runs and allowed 64.
Throw out Opening Day, and they’re exactly even at 48-48, four runs a game both for and against.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Glad you refilled your prescription, Al.
I thought you went to the dark side two weeks into the season yesterday. I look to you for the silver lining.
Me however? The season thus far can be summed up with: Starting pitching great, everything else bad. Although the food at the park has improved.
The Shark Experiment
needs to be over. The guy just can’t pitch right at the major league level right now. IMO, Cashner needs to be called up to try to stabilize the bullpen. He has strikeout stuff which is want you want in the late innings. An argument can be made that you don’t want to stunt his growth but the cardinals did this in 2006 with Wainwright and look at him now. If Cashner has the stuff to start, it is not going to go away.
Frustration for me is that this team is performing exactly as the 09 squad did…inability to hit with the bases loaded, inability to string multiple hits together, bullpen that can’t hold a lead, and starting pitching that has been awesome. It is like the 09 season never ended…
"All I want is food and creative love" - Rusted Root
by TheRiot Police on Apr 20, 2010 7:45 AM CDT up reply actions
you already answered your own question
when the team is mathematically eliminated.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
That's when you and I might give up,
but I think what tharr is asking is when do we all feel it’s over-our opinion about when we personally consider the season is done or at what point do we give up.
I just answered for myself (sort of). I do try to wait til they’re mathematically out of it. Sometimes that is hard though.
"Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air."-Pat Hughes
yeah, I know.
Was just giving my stance too. I understand if people want to give up at an earlier stage. Everyone gets to make their own choices.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 20, 2010 7:55 AM CDT up reply actions
So the question becomes:
WHAT’S OUR MAGIC NUMBER?!
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
http://www.cubsmagicnumber.com/
However, it doesn’t have yesterday’s game up yet, so subtract one from that.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 20, 2010 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions
10 games out of the wild card on July 30
Back up the truck and trade all these hairy bastards
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
A trade, like the tango, takes two.
You can’t trade people if no one will take them. And with these absurd contracts, who, exactly, is going to be shopping at Cubs Market?
I'd take a bag of balls and some spittle for Zambrano
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
I would give it till Aug 15
but depends on who can trade and for what.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 20, 2010 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions
LOL
"Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air."-Pat Hughes
by katie casey on Apr 20, 2010 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions
"Out of contention" is basically the same thing as "impossible odds"
And right now the Cubs still have around a 12% chance of winning the division.
So “not yet” would be the answer to that.
14% chance of making the playoffs.
That’s included in “contention”, correct?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Definitely.
The difference there being whether or not the slim odds of winning the wild card are included.
I think the better question is -
1) what does this team have to show for JH to spend trade chips on bullpen help sooner rather than later
and
2) where’s the line that puts the Cubs into sell mode?
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
IMO...
…Ricketts is thinking long term, and I’d bet he wouldn’t want to give up any prospects for bullpen help.
Behind closed doors, Rickett’s attitude is likely this; Jim, you have the highest payroll in the NL, and you should be able to field what you need with what you have. If they acquire anyone, I’m thinking they have to trade players to free up payroll.
At the deadline, he may be willing to up the payroll (if they are close) somewhat, but it won’t be a lot.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Rickett’s attitude is likely this; Jim, you have the highest payroll in the NL
I hope his attitude isn’t that, because it would mean he can’t count. The Mets have a higher payroll. However, I agree with the rest of what you say. :D
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 20, 2010 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions
You know what I mean.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Cots has the Mets at $126M, Cubs at $144M. Are they missing someone?
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
I thought so...
…and I believe the Cubs are number 3 in all of baseball behind the yanks and sox.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I thought
they were #3 behind the Yanks and the Mets?
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 20, 2010 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions
this confuses things:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4ew-fwu2XT3cpPRtt9qIGw
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 20, 2010 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions
You gotta love...
…a post like this after 13 of 162 games.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
When they are called the Astros, Royals, Nationals, or Pirates
and perhaps the Indians, Orioles, and Padres.
For the record, I would have started Blanco at SS and Theriot at 2B for 2010, and released either Baker or Fontenot.
by DisCUBbobulated on Apr 20, 2010 10:33 AM CDT reply actions
My throw at the Dart Board
I think the Cubs are out of contention when they need to win more than 65% of their remaining games to get to 88 wins. 88 wins is a 54% winning percentage. So when the Cubs need to win more than 10% above that season winning percentage, I think they are out of contention.
Just taking a shot and thinking about it in terms of standard deviations. At this point, not fun to think about.
"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas
Well thought out.
And I agree. Beyond officially being eliminated (it ain’t over until we decide it is), this makes the most sense. When it is hard to fathom a team sustaining an extended period of exceptional play (10% above sounds fine), then you’re probably done.
At some point the teams play will settle
That settling point might be at 54% (88 wins) for the season, or it might be at 50%. And if the team does start to settle around the 50% mark, you can’t expect it to just jump up and wins those extra games to get to 88 wins.
"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas
by RiskyBusiness on Apr 20, 2010 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Too early to tell.
This team isn’t where they want to be, but they are by no means out of it when they are 4 back with 149 games to go.
A-well-a Byrd, Byrd, Byrd, well the Byrd is the word.
Reasonable But Not Certain
This year 3 of the 4 NL postseason teams currently lead their division. I don’t pay as much attention to the AL, but possibly 2 of the 4 AL postseason teams currently lead their division. Most of the time it doesn’t strike me as being this obvious in April.
After 54 games, 1/3rd of the season, a Cub fan should be able to reasonabley hold-on to contention hopes or adjust the expectations downward. Look at the record, how they’ve played over the prior 12-14 games, and what is going on with the team such as injury status of key players and any team controversies. If the division has at least one dominant team, then the standings would tell alot too at the 1/3rd mark.
LOL
But this is by far the earliest I’ve seen or heard this quote in a season in the many years I’ve followed the Cubs.
"Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air."-Pat Hughes
4 Back with 149 to Go
(Sarcasm) It’s not mathematically possible for the Cubs to win the central given that math. It is time to jump!
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
It should be noted by those
that didn’t read the Fan post, no where in it was a white flag presented. Nor were any ledges jumped from. It was merely an attempt to examine the diversity of opinion on when the fat lady begins singing. For those that want to paint criticism by anyone other than Al as traitorous, so be it. For those who want to paint every loss as a reason to fire everyone and bring up the AA team, that’s your right.
However, for those willing to have reasoned dialogue, thank you. We all have more in common than that which separates us.
I think some missed your post entirely
it’s a fair question—when is when?
I was suprised to see the % chance that Wreckard posted. Only a 14% chance to make the post-season as of today—that is scary. Let’s Go Cubs! Kick it gear!
Right, but since it is so early...
… those percentages can change a lot with just a couple of wins.
Now, to get those wins!
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
yep
It was just shocking. I thought it would be in the upper 20’s with a bad start.
You ever watched the Gameday on ESPN? After 2 1/2 innings last night as we were down 2-0, the Mets had a 78% chance of winning that game. Since the data goes back to 2000, that is 10 years worth of games where the Home team wins 78% of the games they lead 2-0 after the visitor bats in the 3rd. That was a suprise.
We are fighting a lot of uphill battles lately.
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