Cards the favorite?  Why?

You answered the question in that paragraph alone as to why the so-called experts are all picking the Cardinals in the NL Central. Quite simply, they view the Cards’ 1-2 starting pitchers, and their 3-4 hitters in the lineup, and their closer as being better than any of the other NL Central team’s. It’s really as simple as that.

Pre-season predictions are just that. Predictions. Meaning that if every player on every team in the league plays exactly how their track record in the past indicates they should play, and if every player in the league stays completely healthy, and if there are no surprises, no improvements or drop-offs from the previous year of any kind, then on paper, this is how the season should play out. When you consider that this is essentially what all pre-season predictions mean, and how ridiculous this scenario is, it’s easy to simply view pre-season predictions for what they really are: TV and radio air time that needs to be filled with a lot of words, and newspaper, magazine, and Internet space that needs to be filled with a lot of words. In other words, just go play ball, guys.

but I could pick apart every team in the division even worse.

 The Cubs need big bounce backs from Soto and Soriano and healthy seasons from Ramirez and Lee to have a decent offense. They’re counting on Randy Wells to repeat his somewhat fluky 2009 and either Tom Gorzelanny or Carlos Silva to be decent. They also need Carlos Marmol to be both effective and healthy.

The Brewers have no starting pitching beyond Gallardo. They’re counting on Casey McGehee to repeat his somewhat fluky season. They’re counting on Rickie Weeks to stay healthy. They’ve got Carlos Gomez and Corey Hart in the outfield.

The Pirates are the Brewers minus Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun.

The Reds are counting on Dusty Baker not destroying their pitching staff. Beyond Votto and maybe Phillips, they’ve got a lot of question marks on offense.

The Astros just stink.

in September. So sayeth my gut feeling. I don’t think that any team has the “stuff” to really dominate the NL Central this year. The Cubs, realistically, could end up being fourth as they could end up winning the division.

I am looking forward to a season with a lot of suspense Including many ups and downs.

Eamus Catuli

We missed our window. I’m just in it for the beer now.

They are the defending champs, they have the two best pitchers in the division, a proven closer, and they have Pujols, the best hitter in the game. No reason to assume they won’t win. All of the other teams in the NL Central have more and bigger question marks.

Well that’s just flat out ridiculous. He’s not even in the conversation with best closers in baseball.

Remember how the Cubs were a lock to take the division in 2009, based on their performance in 2008? Same thing.

Even with all the stats pointing to a Cards division title, there’s always injuries, hot/cold hitters and pitchers, etc etc. They’re only predictions, they aren’t cold, hard fact.

is let everyone pick the Cards. Place all the pressure on them and let’s play the games. Sure they have the arguably the best 3-4 combo in the majors in Pujols and Holliday and the best 1-2 rotation with Carpenter and Wainwright, but just like you said, can any of these guys improve on last year’s numbers? Pujols, probably has the best shot. Holliday, not likely, but his numbers will be solid. Carpenter is injury-prone and Wainwright pitched a ton of innings last year.

 I like that the Cubs are flying under the radar this year. Let’s play a 162 and see what happens.

Everyone picked us to win last yr.

players are humans. Injuries may arise and you may end up losing Pujols or Halliday or Molina for a chunk of the season [not saying I want it to happen]. Never underestimate any team for they may come out and surprise you in the end.

the one-eyed man is king.

Good pitching, solid offense, reasonable health, and arguably the best coaching in the division. The won the division last year by what, seven games? There’s really no team that you can look at, and say that they’ve made that up.

Personally, I don’t feel good about their ability to catch the ball, which may come back to bite them hard. But until I see it become a major problem, they’re my pick too.

I can understand it if the Cardinals are favored now, but anointing them to win the division before a single game has even been played? Nothing against St. Louis, but they also have a very right-handed lineup. Their only left-handed regulars are Rasmus and Schumaker. So, the fact that the Cubs also have a something of a right-handed-heavy lineup is somewhat a wash when played against St. Louis.

Will the Cardinals win the division? It’s too early to say IMO. Will it be a close race? To be honest, I really think the Cubs/Cardinals race will be a lot closer than most people expected at the outset of the season.

The Cardinals are not unstoppable by any means but why would they not be the favorite? In the division best 1-2 pitching, best 3-4-5 hitting, best closer, best catcher not to mention the best player in baseball. Why would you not choose the Cardinals? Things change over the course of the season and players aren’t always the same as in previous years but the Cards are the obvious smart choice to win the division. I’m not saying the Cubs can’t win the division but at this point in time its the Cards who should be chosen. Given I still would take the Cubbies for Wildcard and in the playoffs its anybody’s game. That said let’s go Cubbies!!!!!

It’s not like the Cubs did enough to make themselves the preseason favorite.

When your first priority is moving “He Who Has Been Shipped To Seattle”, you are not off to a riveting off-season. The payroll is bloated with aging players and the top free agent moves were Marlon Byrd and Xavier “I hope the 2nd surgery was the trick” Nady. No killer move on the pitching side at all. Other than letting Kevin Gregg go.

Sure, some Cubs should rebound from 2009. That was a steep offensive drop-off from 2008. But what if others have bad seasons?

When you win the division by 7.5 games and keep your core players, you will probably be the preseason favorite. No real stretch here.

To be honest, I don’t see him repeating last year’s performance. It was his “lightning in a bottle” year. They used him out of desperation, and not as a stroke of genius. Jason Motte was the closer coming out of ST, but he blew his first couple chances, and they turned to Franklin.

I fear Pujols, Carpenter, and Wainwright, but I do not fear the Cardinals. As far as Holliday’s concerned, after early success with the Cards post deadline, teams started to figure him out down the stretch – he can’t hit, or lay off, good hard high fastballs. The Dodgers scouted him well, and the only damage he did in the NLDS was on a slow curve from Kershaw. They overpaid in $$ and years for the guy, and will regret it in the same way we’ve regretted the Soriano deal.

All this said, they could stil win the division going away, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they didn’t.

1. Franklin
2. Marmol
3. Hoffman
4. Cordero
5. Lindstrom
6. Dotel

Is Franklin really the best – as a few people here have said? I think I’d say Hoffman and Cordero are better in terms of a consistent track record in that role. I don’t know too much about Lindstrom – I believe this is his first year as a closer, no? Seems like Marmol and Franklin are both question marks in a sense. Could Dotel be the dark horse?

I don’t see the Cardinals winning at all. I think they’ve got more flaws than the Cubs. A weak bullpen, besides their 1 and 2 starters, all the others have struggled (unless Kyle Loshe lives up to his contract), they lost a good starter in Joel Piniero to free agency, and they have done absolutely nothing to improve their bullpen. What they did last year is history, and if they do manage to win this division, they’re doing it in the last week of the season, not as early as September 1st.

so someone may have already mentioned this. But…

LaRussa is a guy who relies very heavily on his bench. He loves to shift guys around, go with matchups, etc. A lot. But the Cards bench is very weak this year, which is odd because it doesn’t fit the manager’s style. Something to keep an eye on.

…as has been stated here before has the Cubs in second, below .500.
They project ALL NL Central teams but the Cards below .500

I can see second place as a possibility, but…79 wins??? Absurd.

It’s simple. EVERY team in the Central has flaws. The Cardinals just don’t have as many, at least ON PAPER.

They have two Cy Young candidates at the front of their rotation.
They have two Triple Crown candidates in the middle of their lineup.

Nine times out of ten they will just pick last year’s winners.

Cardinals have as many holes if not more than the Cubs if you don’t buy into Franklin. Theoretically they have solved their biggest issue in years when they traded for and kept Holliday. But the devil is always in the details.

I’m picking the Cards for third in 2010.

thinking ryan franklin is a good closer

there’s a reason VEB has a “franklin sucks” meme

Drink your beer and prognosticate all you want. The Cubs are going to be in the middle of this and the Cards will fall apart. Have a round on me for that one. It’s free.

Can you name one major hole the Cardinals have?

Almost all projection systems have the Cardinals with around 90 wins and finishing first in the division by a huge margin. I know, I know, they are just projections – but they are the baseline from which we should judge a team. Unless you have any reason to believe that many players on the Cardinals will underperform their career numbers or that many players on the Cubs and the Brewers will overperform – significantly – I don’t see how you cannot believe the Cards are the favorite.

I think the points that are being made all actually agree with one another. I think if the entire Cardinals team was abducted by space aliens, then injected with typhoid, and forced to listen to Go Cubs Go 24/7 from now until October 15th, AND the Cubs were allowed 4 outs every inning and all fielding and mental errors reversed into outs (it’s the effort that counts after all, isn’t it?), then the Northsiders would have a pretty good shot at finishing first in the division.

That said, the Cubs have a history of having just as many – if not more – nagging injuries (can I grab a chair for you? A Kleenex? A shorter dugout fence, perhaps?) than their opponents.

Of course, we’re just one day into this thing, and the Cubs are already the Cubs.

And I still love them.