The Offense, plus What's Wrong with Aramis' Swing?
by DGU on Apr 22, 2010 11:07 AM CDT
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PrintComing into the season, the players we were concerned about were Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto, and the middle IF mishmash. Well, so far Soriano and Soto are leading the team in OPS, while Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker look like the makings of a productive-enough platoon. We can be concerned that Fukudome has given up his patience without getting a return in SLG, but it's early. (Check here for a nice summary of the Cubs' hitting.)
What really stands out is Aramis Ramirez' awful cold streak. And, yes, it's early. Yes, as I say over and over again, all hitters have bad months some time. But look more closely at Rami's numbers. His strikeout rate has ballooned to 34%. His line drive rate is way down at 7%. His fly ball rate has jumped to 70%. It seems safe to conclude that while part of this is bad luck (.132 BABIP), another part is a swing that is just off.
So, I want to hear from the eyes on the ground what they're seeing in Rami's swing. Has anyone seen something? Has anyone heard or read something about Rudy tinkering with Rami's swing?
I expect Ramirez will get this worked out. He's too good a hitter for this to continue. And the luck alone will change and help.
And that said, it is early, but this is part of why I'm optimistic about this offense right now. The overall RS line is not good, but when you break the team down into its component parts, I like what I'm seeing from the players that were question marks going into the season.
Soriano will have a cold streak and cool down. But he looks like he's a lot closer to the old Sori than the '09 injured Sori.
Fontenot's AVG will fall, and if he doesn't add some SLG, he won't be as productive as he looks right now. But I think by mid-season, we'll have a SS-2B rotation that will be above average.
Soto's 2009 had a bad BABIP; it looks like he's going to be closer to '08 than '09.
Dome concerns me; he just doesn't fit with Lou. But I think we'll trade him eventually anyway, and Colvin is hanging in there v. MLB pitching.
Yes, it's early. Some of these things will change. But I'm less worried about this offense now than I was in the off-season.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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his swing is looks pretty messed up at the moment
I’m not an expert by any means, but just watching the last few games, I think his posture looks different from last year, and he’s constantly swinging underneath the ball, leading to all the fly balls/Ks. He’s always “unhinged” his back elbow earlier in his swing than most hitters, leading to a little bit more of an uppercut, but his bat speed has been so good that it hasn’t mattered. He seems to be unhinging even before his bat enters the hitting zone now, though. It could just be a temporary timing thing, but I’m concerned that his shoulder isn’t still 100%, which would have a definite effect on his bat speed and his ability to make contact. I haven’t read anything about Rudy tinkering, but I’m sure after the last few games, they’re watching a lot of tape to figure out what’s going on.
He had the shoulder issue the 2nd half of last year.
Didn’t seem to affect him then.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
IIRC
he obviously hit well, but he did have a cortisone shot at some point after returning, so it must have been giving him some sort of problem, which may or may not have resolved itself in the offseason. I have a vague recollection of a spring training quote where he said it was still a little bothersome, but I can’t find it off google, so I may be misremembering.
Either way, it seems like it’s probably a timing thing that can be fixed…but worst case, it could be a residual physical issue.
by PrincetonCubs on Apr 22, 2010 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
if memory serves ...
Aramis started horribly in 2006, which ended up as one of his best years. Now, he’s four years older and has a potentially gimpy shoulder, but I just think we’re seeing one helluva slump.
BTW, Soriano’s performance since the Milwaukee series is the single most hopeful thing about the Cubs right now.
You're right about 2006.
A-Ram was hitting .212 as late as May 17. Wound up with a .912 OPS and career highs in HR and RBI.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I'm not worried about Aramis
He’s the one guy on the team I know will come out of a funk.
And when he starts hitting the ball, we can finally see a nice win streak!
I expect Aramis to hit.
But I’m noting that the stats-to-date do have meaning. His Ks are way up, as are his fly ball %. This is a swing that is off more than usual. I’m noting this not as if it’s a fact going forward, but to see if I can get some perspective from people watching him in person.
And my expectation that he’ll hit is why the second part of this fanpost is about optimism for the hitting in general. It’s too early to say it will be significantly better than pre-season projections, but it’s not too early to say we’re looking closer to 2008 than 2009.
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
I think Brenly said last night..
that his mechanics are in a funk and its most likely mental, due to he is probably pressing right now. The slowed his swing down, and he is pulling his head when he swing; so he is not getting a good look at any pitches.
IMHO if we give him a few days off, I think he can straighten himself out.
Yeah, Brenly said Ramirez told him it wasn’t his swing, but he’s been having trouble seeing the ball. He usually starts slow. By May he’ll be tearing the cover off of the ball, I’m sure.
Bears, beets, Battlestar Galactica. - Jim Halpert as Dwight Schrute
Interesting that Rami thinks it's not his swing but his sight.
Thanks for that.
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
Maybe he should have his vision checked.
Seriously.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
The longer this goes on
the more they should be checking everything.
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
I saw that last night...
His head was already looking down the third base line as his bat missed the ball. Not what we’re used to seeing from an Aramis swing.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Apr 22, 2010 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions
It becomes a legitimate question at some point
but one I’m not ready to pose yet.
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
16 comments thus far
and no one has mentioned he missed an awful lot of Spring Training. He just hasn’t had the reps that he has had in the past heading into the regular season.
His mechanics are slightly off. To my eye, he seems to be standing furhter away from the plate and bending more from thre waist.
I am not ariied about Rami. He’s too good and been too good for a long time to not get this corrected. He will still finish .300, 25+ HR, & 100 RBI.
Ramirez is underneath every pitch and getting worse.
He needs elevator shoes or something.
DFA! DFA! DFA!
Fer cryin’ out loud…
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
Move Aramis to the bullpen...
Light a fire under this team!……… /sarcasm.
Someday we'll go all the way...
Man, that poll is a tough one.
I guess, if the offense continues to struggle to produce runs, I could see the Cubs calling up Castro sometime after June 1 and maybe dealing Baker for pitching.
Who has more trade value, do you think?
Theriot or Baker?
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
Wow, that's a tough one, too.
I want to say Baker, because he can hit for some power as well as play three postions – or even four or five, if you include the outfield. But Theriot has a more proven track record as a hitter (not saying he’s a great hitter, but he’s more of a known quantity), and he can play shortstop (premium position). I guess it depends on what the prospective trade partner is looking for.
Not much difference...
…I would think.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Aramis...
…will be fine.
Give it a month, and you will have other things to worry about.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Aramis is likely A) hurting and B) in decline phase
Which is problematic given his status as the best and most important run producer on this team over the past 8 seasons. I’m not suggesting he is about to suck, rather than his production expectation should be lowered and it can be expected that he spends increasing time on the DL.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Hurting would be a definite explanation
although he’s said he’s not hurting. Do you think he’s covering?
4/9/10: Carlos Silva strikes out Joey Votto on three pitches. Is that what you mean by "small sample size"?
A lot of once very good ballplayers hit a "broken down" state of their career all too early
I fear that Aramis may be the latest victim of this phenomenon.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
what
he’s not coming off the juice?
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 23, 2010 11:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Or could it be that he's in a slump? Isn't that possible? Players have been known to slump badly
just because they have developed a bad habit. They don’t have to be hurt. They don’t have to in a decline phase. They just happen to be in a slump. We’ve all see it before. It happens to the best of players. Eventually, they come out of it and start to hit again. Let’s not over-analyze this.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Apr 24, 2010 1:01 AM CDT up reply actions
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