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Timing of Castro Promotion to Bigs - An Arbitration Explanation

With 20 yr old SS Starlin Castro's blazing start in TN this spring (.380/.396/.620), all of us are counting the days until his arrival at Wrigley. All (and I do mean all at this point) of the consensus about Castro is that he is a certain major league SS for many years. So what are we waiting for? Promote him already, right? Theriot isn't getting it done. Let's get someone in there who is the future and let him get going!

There are many arguments on both sides of this issue from a player development standpoint. I will leave it to others to debate the pros and cons of that. Here, though, a quick tutorial for those who may not understand the business side of the decision. It is certainly a factor.

When a player is called up to the major league club, there is a service clock that begins ticking. A club has a player under salary control for his first 3 years. If the team and the player don't come to an agreement on salary, the club can just renew this player's salary unilaterally. This happened to Prince Fielder in 2008, as some of you may remember. Its why Marmol got paid $430k in 2008 and $575k last year. After year 3, a player becomes arbitration eligible, but is still under the control of his current club. Typically, this means a large increase in salary, though not what the player would usually be able to demand on the open market as a free agent. (Marmol got $2.125mm this year in a deal that avoided arbitration.) The player remains arbitration eligible for an additional 3 years; so although the club is paying them more, they are still retaining exclusive rights to this player. Only after 3 years of arbitration is a player eligible to become a free agent. This is why young players that come up through the farm system are so valuable. The club has them under some form of cost control for 6 years; 3 years at a significant discount and 3 more at somewhat of a discount.

Now, there is a wrinkle in the arbitration rules. A player can qualify for arbitration after only 2 years in the major leagues as a "Super Two" player if he:

  • Played in the majors for at least 86 days the previous season - AND -
  • Is among the top 17 percent for cumulative playing time in the majors amongst others with at least 2 years, but less than 3 years experience.

So a Castro who is called up in April of 2010 could qualify for arbitration after 2012 even though he has not played three full seasons. In order to keep this from happening, the Cubs would need to wait until 17% of the players had been called up, or wait until Castro has passed into the 86 day window, thereby making this season not count towards "Super Two" status.

Waiting to call up Castro until June 1, will avoid the possibility of him achieving this "Super Two" status and keep Castro under cost control for the Cubs for an additional year. Now recognize that I am not making an argument one way or another for whether he should be called up now or after June 1. I am simply stating the business side of it so that everyone can see the back office considerations that go into making decisions like this. If Castro turns into an All-Star SS like many think that he will, this extra month in the minors could save the club $10mm or more in 2016. The question becomes, is one month of Castro now worth the potential savings of $10mm in 2016.

I hope that this helps shed some light on a topic that many casual fans do not understand.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

Comment 122 comments  |  21 recs  | 

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Thanks for the cogent explanation.

I hope we see him on September 1.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Apr 22, 2010 11:23 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

its also funny that the same people to me that say so much about soriano

have little too say about our underperforming ss when castro was better than him in spring too

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

by fischisgod on Apr 23, 2010 12:06 AM CDT up reply actions  

*Ahem*

Spring training stats are meaningless.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 25, 2010 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

what did Lee hit in Spring Training?

I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119

by hansman1982 on Apr 27, 2010 12:47 AM CDT up reply actions  

WITHOUT

looking it up – and be within 10 points…now what did Lee hit in 2009 – within 10 points and without looking

I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119

by hansman1982 on Apr 27, 2010 12:48 AM CDT up reply actions  

Shouldn't the call-up be at least somewhat before September 1st?

Hoping of course that the Cubs are in contention, they should call him up before 9/1 so he is eligible for the playoff roster. They would look foolish if they called him up on 9/1 and he raked all September but couldn’t be on the playoff roster.

"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman

by BucknerKongCardenal on Apr 25, 2010 11:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

I am guessing I am wrong

but if they are on the roster come Sept 1 then they are playoff eligible – meaning the callups day 1 of the roster expansion are eligible – or do they have to be there 11:59 the night before

I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119

by hansman1982 on Apr 27, 2010 12:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

They have to be on the roster on August 31.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Apr 27, 2010 7:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

This was excellent.

It was written so even my mom a caveman could understand it.

Fukudometer: Created 3/31/08 Wrigley Debut 4/5/08 WGN and Japan TV Debut 4/6/08 Sun Times Debut: 4/20/08 Coffee Table Debut: 7/17/08 (http://www.wearecubsfans.com)

by Fukudometer on Apr 22, 2010 11:28 AM CDT reply actions  

Are you suggesting your mother is a caveman?

In the middle of difficulty, lies opportunity - Einstein

by cubbieblue86 on Apr 22, 2010 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions  

cavewoman

Fukudometer: Created 3/31/08 Wrigley Debut 4/5/08 WGN and Japan TV Debut 4/6/08 Sun Times Debut: 4/20/08 Coffee Table Debut: 7/17/08 (http://www.wearecubsfans.com)

by Fukudometer on Apr 22, 2010 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

if the shoe fits

I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119

by hansman1982 on Apr 27, 2010 12:49 AM CDT up reply actions  

I was not aware of the "super two" rule

Thank you for the excellent summary


"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze

by eths on Apr 22, 2010 11:34 AM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Fontenot

I believe was a super-two guy last year

I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119

by hansman1982 on Apr 22, 2010 11:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

Correct

Fontenot, Adam Jones and Micah Owings all had 2 years and 139 days of service, but Fontenot was the only super-two of the bunch.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091111&content_id=7655452&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

A big league season is considered 172 days, and the cutoff point for super twos usually falls between the 2yr 128 day and 2yr 140 day….so between 32 and 44 days into the season.

"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman

by BucknerKongCardenal on Apr 25, 2010 11:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Cubs could wait

Until Giants call up Posey and Indians call up Santana to increase their odds of holding onto Castro for one more non-arbitration year. I would guess a lot of the Cubs decision on calling up Castro will depend on how well Theriot and the platoon at second are playing by mid to late May.

"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman

by BucknerKongCardenal on Apr 25, 2010 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

Excellent Post

I would rec if I could from my Iphone. On a business trip in Cape Girardeau, MO.

"...but you the living, you're stuck here with the Cubs. So it is ME who feels sorry for you." - Steve Goodman, "A Dying Cub Fan's Last Request"

by HoSs. on Apr 22, 2010 12:06 PM CDT via mobile reply actions   1 recs

+2

Come visit me inside Wrigley along the Addison side mezzanine fence straight up from 1st base.

by section229beer on Apr 22, 2010 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Thanks y'all

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Apr 22, 2010 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

say hello

to el rushbo for me………….

I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119

by hansman1982 on Apr 22, 2010 11:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Woooooo!

The f***in’ Cape! Let’s buy liquor for Poplar Bluff teens and get lucky later!

Oh, wait – who’s playing?

"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root

by Clutch16 on Apr 23, 2010 2:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

Cape Girardeau, is where I live.

Nice town, but lots of die hard Cardinal fans.

After Tuesday, even the calendar says WTF.

by Mars10 on Apr 28, 2010 12:06 AM CDT up reply actions  

Now that April 19th has passed...

Castro will not become eligible until after 2013 and won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2016. Look at what the Mets did with Ike Davis. I’m not sure when the date will be for Super Two status as it depends on when other players are called up, but as of now all minor leaguers can be called up without earning the required 172 service days and will now be under team control until 2016.

The 1st commandment of the Chicago Cubs Bullpen: "Though shall not throw strikes."

by Rossy on Apr 22, 2010 12:09 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Rossy is right

Further delay only (potentially) helps the Cubs put off arbitration for a year; calling him up now would have no impact on his free agency, which has already been pushed back.

by MrSportsKnowItAll.com on Apr 22, 2010 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yes

You are right. My explanation made it seem otherwise, didn’t it. I just re-read it. Sorry. This is correct for free agency. Keeping him arb. ineligible for one more year could have a major impact on salary in year six, though as the below article linked about Strasburg explains well.

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Apr 22, 2010 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

It seems that

we only know if a player is in the 17% grouping at the end of the season. That makes the drop dead date questionable.

If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.

by tharr on Apr 22, 2010 12:41 PM CDT reply actions  

That's correct, because...

… it’s “the top 17% in cumulative playing time” for that season. That amount of time cannot be known till the end of the year.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Apr 22, 2010 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

which is why

you simply wait for the June deadline.

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Apr 22, 2010 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Exactly

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Apr 22, 2010 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

Actually its not a hard deadline

Its just the time each year when you are safe to bring up prospects and have them not qualify. Late May is usually safe, but you run some risk. June 1 is typically considered a safe time where the player will not qualify. If you calculate the actual numbers, 86 days from the end of September puts you somewhere around the first of July. However, June 1 has always been safe from the percentage test before. The date usualy falls somewhere in mid-May.

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Apr 22, 2010 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

It actually technically can't be known until the end of 2 years...

But you can make a pretty good guess that he won’t be a super 2 if you wait til June 1, based on the fact that historically, the cutoff for Super 2s tends to move right around that date.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Apr 22, 2010 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

Simlar for Strasburg and others...

The thrust is simple: If a team parks a player in the minor leagues for at least 20 days to begin the season, it can delay his free agency by one year. Teams looking to save money go a step further and keep players down for about two months, which prevents them from gaining the Super 2 status that gives the top 17 percent of any service class an extra year of salary arbitration.

Because of the service-time rules, the Nationals could save upward of $20 million by keeping Strasburg in the minors until their June 4 series against Cincinnati.

Link

And another good article with all the numbers etc. Link

by mph3 on Apr 22, 2010 12:58 PM CDT reply actions  

still learning block quotes I guess...

between the boxes is a direct quote from the first link…

by mph3 on Apr 22, 2010 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

I got your blockquote right here
June 26 is Game 87

"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root

by Clutch16 on Apr 23, 2010 2:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

That is very cool.

Too bad there’s no way to break up the lines and make a maze out of it.

Follow me on Twitter here and catch my twice-weekly Cubs news updates here.

by daver on Apr 23, 2010 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions  

This reminds me of that old TV show "Time Tunnel" for some reason.

"One of the things I like about baseball is that between innings you can go to the restroom.'' ~Manny Acta.

by Goodie1969 on Apr 25, 2010 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions  

I loved that show!

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Apr 25, 2010 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

A very clear explanation.

However, could his fielding be a reason why he’s not up yet? Not saying it is or isn’t.

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Apr 22, 2010 1:16 PM CDT reply actions  

Maybe

I’m not conjecturing why Castro is or isn’t up. It may have nothing to do with Super 2, arbitration, or free agency. Just wanting people to understand the business side a little bit before they just yell, “bring him up now!”

There are obviously other variables.

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Apr 22, 2010 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

That may have something to do with it.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Apr 22, 2010 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

From what I understand

His glove is more than playable at the position already. I think they just want a 20-year-old kid to get a few more PAs above Single-A under his belt.

If you like my posts, read more at MrSportsKnowItAll.com and become a fan on Facebook. Actually, even if you don't like my stuff, you should do those things, because it'll make you feel all tingly inside.

by MrSportsKnowItAll on Apr 22, 2010 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

He's already made 3 errors this year. There have been questions about his glove. That above all

has probably kept him from being the Cubs starting SS right now. I believe that the Cubs are hoping that the time spent this year in te minors will give him a chance to hone his defensive skills.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Apr 22, 2010 11:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

Rec'ed...

Maybe this should be added as a sticky some place

"Why people, who have not committed any punishable offense, listen to Country and Western music is absolutely beyond me" - John Cleese

by Endrick on Apr 22, 2010 1:20 PM CDT reply actions  

Yes, it should.

Everyone's thought process with this team is that the playoffs start now. Tomorrow is going to be Day One of our run to October.

-- Marlon Byrd

by Ryno Runner on Apr 24, 2010 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

When Is Castro Coming to Chicago?

It would be nice if Theriot were playing better, so the big club didn’t feel as if it needed to rush Castro. There is the issue of a young player still developing needing to play every day to get better. With all due respect to Castro, who I believe will be a good MLB shortstop for many years to come, I don’t believe at this particular moment in time that he is better than Ryan Theriot. I do think Castro will end up becoming a much better player than Theriot. Castro just isn’t at that point currently. I’m concerned that if he were called up to the big club right now that he wouldn’t get much playing time.

I believe the best thing for Castro would be to finish the first half of the season as an everyday player with Tennessee before getting called up to Iowa, where he could still play every day and develop. Then, depending on how well he does at Iowa, consider him for a September call-up. I understand the concern over Theriot’s lack of production, but I don’t think the Cubs need to overreact and rush Castro.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Apr 22, 2010 2:32 PM CDT reply actions  

You are forgetting the fact that Theriot could be playing 2b

I know most BCB readers feel Theriot is a average or below average SS in the field but he would be a good 2b and bringing up castro would give lou the opportunity to to finally put Theriot back in the position where he belongs.

by oeosoto on Apr 22, 2010 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Theriot at 2B

It’s something to consider, especially if Theriot continues to do so poorly at the plate. I know Castro is better than Darwin Barney at Iowa. I don’t trust Fontenot or Baker to play shortstop as well as Theriot does. I do think that Theriot’s struggles may expedite Castro’s arrival at AAA. I don’t think AAA is necessary, but I believe AAA is highly recommended for developing players before going to the bigs.

I still think Castro is going to play at least a few games at AAA before coming to Chicago. Even Albert Pujols played 14 games at AAA before getting called up to St. Louis. Pujols wouldn’t have played that many at AAA had the Memphis Redbirds not made the playoffs in 2000.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Apr 22, 2010 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Please no Theriot at second

Maybe his defense would be better, but it wouldn’t offset his weak bat, especially at a position where the Cubs have a nice platoon working right now. Whenever the club deems it time for Castro to come up, I’d prefer they send Theriot to the bench or another team.

by shoemile on Apr 22, 2010 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

Time Short for Theriot with the Cubs

Even in the best case scenario for Theriot, I don’t see him being with the Cubs past 2011. Quite frankly, I have serious doubts that he will be with the team past 2010 with Castro on the horizon. That all depends on how quickly Castro develops. The early reports this season indicate that he is developing at a good clip.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Apr 22, 2010 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

Agreed

Unless Castro starts playing poorly, I don’t see Theriot with the team after this year. Especially considering he was the first Cub to have an arbitration hearing since who, Mark Grace?

by shoemile on Apr 22, 2010 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

Going Back to 1985

Yeah, I know that was 25 years ago. Larry Bowa with a feeble bat and diminished range at shortstop eventually gave way to a much younger Shawon Dunston. Okay, Theriot isn’t nearly as old now as Bowa was back then. I believe Theriot peaked in 2008 and is already on the downside of his career. Can he hold on to his job the rest of this season or next season? That remains to be seen.

Seeing Bowa after 1983 was tough. I thought he still had enough range and just enough offense when he first got to the Cubs with his sure hands to be a plus shortstop. However, his range and bat went downhill in a hurry after 1983.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Apr 22, 2010 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

Theriot's not doing that bad.

He’s actually been better lately and is hitting .275. It’s not like he’s hitting .210. He had a double and triple last night and looks more sure of himself at the plate. I think that giving him a day off the other day (and playing Fontenot at SS) helped him.

Of course, the throw into the dugout wasn’t pretty.

by TheGrinch13 on Apr 24, 2010 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

WEAK BAT?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?!?

The guy is hitting nearly .300 for his career with 162 game average of almost 30 doubles…not to shabby for a middle infielder with average defense.

I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119

by hansman1982 on Apr 27, 2010 1:04 AM CDT up reply actions  

Weak: wanting in physical strength

I love Marian Hossa and Patrick Kane in totally manly ways. Kinda.

by jesus christos on Apr 27, 2010 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

he doesn't hit well enough

to play second base. Trade riot, release Fontenot, make Baker the starter.

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Apr 22, 2010 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

This

is what they call a good idea.

Or trade Theriot and Fontenot. While release Fontenot?

www.facebook.com/craighudak

by Craig in South Bend on Apr 22, 2010 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm assuming

we couldn’t get anything for him. Package the cajun connection together for Joba? That’d be ok with me.

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Apr 22, 2010 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, that would happen.

Theriot and Fontenot for Joba. Even if, in some insane universe, the Yankees accepted that, where would they play? I guess they’d probably just bench Jeter and Cano.

by TheGrinch13 on Apr 24, 2010 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

I guess Baker does hit well enough to play second base.

.206 sure gets things done, doesn’t it?

And let’s release Fontenot, who’s hitting .306 and playing excellent defense. Trade Theriot, too. Let’s just bring back Bobby Scales if we’re going to throw away the entire roster, while we’re at it?

by TheGrinch13 on Apr 24, 2010 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

So we should release our second baseman who is playing great defensively and is hitting .300 on the season

and trade away our everyday SS and pray to God that Castro actually works out? Brilliant!

by Pre on Apr 24, 2010 10:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

Why?

Fontenot is the better fielder and hits right handed pitching much better. Do I have to post their splits again for you?

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 25, 2010 7:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

re: Jason Heyward, the Atlanta Braves could have sent him down

taking the common “baseball business” approach with Heyward but chose to keep him on the opening day roster giving them the best chance to win NOW.

"Believe or leave."

by flachimesa on Apr 22, 2010 3:09 PM CDT reply actions  

Similar to Pujols' Ascent

Heyward tore through A, AA, and AAA in 2009 just as Pujols did in 2000. Those type of players don’t come around too often. Normally, I don’t like rushing players, but in select situations, it’s the right thing to do. I beg of fans to understand that I think a lot of Castro. I just don’t think he’s a Pujols type or maybe not even a Heyward type. Look, Castro will be with the big club soon enough and produce.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Apr 22, 2010 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

Not comparable

Hayward is the number 1 prospect in baseball. He has nothing left to prove in the minors.

Castro still has minimal power and needs to walk more. Hayward’s OBP last season in the minors was .408. Also as late as last season, Castro would still make the stupid error. So far this season that hasn’t been a problem.

If Castro is still performing this well by July then I would agree that it is time to reconsider.

by rlpete on Apr 22, 2010 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not comparing players

I’m commenting on the business side of baseball. Every team does it. The Braves chose not to do it with Heyward.

"Believe or leave."

by flachimesa on Apr 22, 2010 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

hanson

But did with Tommy Hanson. Difference being this year is Bobby Cox’s last year and Heyward was a needed power hitter who would bolster the team and last year they had a plethora of pitching.

Can we start a petition though to keep Heyward from being referred to as the J-Hey Kid?

by KyCubsFan on Apr 22, 2010 7:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

Tigers opened last year with Rick Porcello in the rotation

they could have waited a month and gotten that 7th year (before free agency), but they desperately wanted to win last year, and Porcello was one of their top starters. Detroit fell short in the end, but not because of Porcello.

by holy mackeral on Apr 24, 2010 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Great Post

I agree that Castro should get some more time under his belt before coming up. One thing to think about is the 10mil the Cubs save in 2016. I think I saw somewhere that the average win costs a team about 3.5mil. So would Castro contribute 3 wins to the Cubs between now and June 1? If so, it’s financially worth bringing him up, although there’s no telling what that does to his development.

by portlandcubfan on Apr 22, 2010 5:15 PM CDT reply actions  

One thing that I can say for certain

and that is that Castro will not produce 3 WAR (Wins Above Replacement player – which is what you are talking about) before June 1. Pujols (arguably the best first baseman EVER to play to game) has a WAR of 76.5…for his career. That is 10 years of an average of 7.6 WAR. That means in 2 months, Pujols doesn’t even produce 3 WAR on average. We won’t get 3 WAR in two months from a 20 year old doubles power shortstop.

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Apr 22, 2010 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

In that case

That makes it even easier to keep him at AA to develop and wait until September, then bring him in April or June of 2011.

by portlandcubfan on Apr 22, 2010 10:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm sorry,...

But it’s flat out hard to believe that Pujols is only worth 7.6 wins/year over the average player.

I don’t know what they use to quantify that, but baseball’s best player does a lot more for you than add just 7.6 wins per year. That’s for sure. This is a case were numbers are useless.

"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)

Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.

by SackMan on Apr 26, 2010 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

Remember

that baseball is a TEAM game. I’m just reporting what the stats are. If you think that they are wrong, that’s fine. There is only so much at ONE player can do. Babe Ruth only added 200 wins over his career (and much of that was due to his pitching early in his career.)

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Apr 27, 2010 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions  

I say

let him stay in the minors until Sept 1…this way he has a shot at the RoY next year…unless he is just absolutely lights out in AA come May 20 then promote to AAA for 2 weeks and up to the bigs where you then trade Theriot, Fontenot and Gorzo for a middle reliever come July 31.

I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119

by hansman1982 on Apr 22, 2010 11:15 PM CDT reply actions  

not being serious

I just feel better about myself when people reply to my posts so I try to throw in controversial things on occasion. I do think if he is still tearing up the minors come May 20 and still has a RF that is much greater than Theriot we bring him up after a short stay in AAA.

I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119

by hansman1982 on Apr 23, 2010 1:01 AM CDT up reply actions  

This is very simple...

Castro is our best defensive shortstop. He is also OPS’n 1.000+ in a prospect dominated league. The idiots (and yes you are idiots if you think he needs to go to AAA where he will OPS 1.300) who think he need to go to AAA dont understand this kid. This kid can straight up hit. CAN RUN (which no one else on this team can. And can play SS. We are a better team with Starlin Castro on the field.

And i am just gonna send this back to all the nay sayers. Al has said repeatedly in all of the Big Z to the bullpen threads that you cant complain until we see how it works. Well i frickin guarantee this is a better use of resources then sending 18 million to pitch 60 innings. SO in the words of AL “we dont know how it will work i think its a great idea”

dying laughing.

Castro to SS>>>>>>>>> idea than >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Z to bullpen

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

by fischisgod on Apr 23, 2010 12:11 AM CDT reply actions  

Why Isn't He at AAA Now?

I know we can argue all day about when to bring him up to the big club? If he’s doing so well at AA, why not bring him up to AAA now? He would facing better competition in the PCL than in the Southern League. If he’s the best shortstop in the system and already proven he can tear up AA pitching, bring him up to AAA now. I’m getting a might panicky about Theriot in Chicago. I’m afraid the Cubs may not be the afforded the patience with Castro that I would like.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Apr 23, 2010 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions  

My guess is...

… he’ll be at Iowa by midseason.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Apr 23, 2010 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Right now Darwin Barney is the AAA Iowa starting SS

You may be thinking something along the lines of “who cares about Darwin Barney?” but he could turn into a productive Major League player. Demoting him to AA would be a slap across the face. You don’t make minor league promotions/demotions on a whim. Right now, everybody has a secure minor league spot where they’re getting appropriate playing time and coaching. There’s no reason to suggest that Castro would develop significantly faster at AAA than at AA.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Apr 24, 2010 3:56 AM CDT up reply actions  

Wrong

You’re the idiot if you actually believe that Castro will put up an OPS of 1.300 at AAA.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 25, 2010 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

Knock off the namecalling.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Apr 26, 2010 7:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

Thanks Archie

For a good shorty story explanation to this.

by jajonez77 on Apr 23, 2010 8:54 AM CDT reply actions  

I Agree with the September 1st people

Castro has all the makings of being an all star shortstop there is no doubt. But he is still very young, and still very impatient at the plate.

To borrow from many others who have stated this, the Cubs have a history of rushing players who are impatient at the plate (Pie, Patterson, etc.).

If they did bring up Castro this soon, which I dont think they will, it will be nothing more than a panic move ala Zambrano to the bullpen. I think the Cubs are fine right now. The starting pitching has been decent, the offense and bullpen just needs to get things in gear. No need to rush a promising young player at this point.

If Castro does well enough offensively to get a promotion to Iowa by June/July and then can tear up AAA the 2nd half of the summer, I see no reason to hold Castro back. But right now I think its too early to consider bringing him up to the major leage club, arbitration constraints or not.

by backtocali on Apr 23, 2010 9:23 AM CDT reply actions  

The fact that Castro isn't on the team right now just shows that the Cubs management must not be as interested in winning as we think they are.

I understand about rushing players, but there are a number of players who have played at age 20.

Teams like the Nationals, who are a joke, make decisions to keep players like Strasburg in the minors while they play the same throw-outs from other teams every year. Guys like Strasburg would but people in the seats, and maybe increase their pathetic fan bases. But I guess saving money on arbitration is more important.

I guess it doesn’t really matter if we don’t bring him up, although this should be a rebuilding year anyway.

Things are fine right now? Zambrano’s in the bullpen with a 7.45 ERA, our bullpen consists of Marmol, Marshall and no one else, Ramirez can’t hit his weight, and our line-up is half-full of automatic outs.

Oh, and Colvin spends most of the week on the bench as a reward for playing hard (and well) in the rare times that he gets a chance to play. That monster smash he hit last night should earn him a trip to the bench for the next week or so.

by TheGrinch13 on Apr 24, 2010 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

C'mon, Castro is now hitting .406 for goodness sake.

Who cares about Darwin Barney? Are we actually going to give him a chance to play first out of respect? Castro obviously belongs in the majors, and had a similar spring to Colvin’s to prove that he is ready to face major league pitching.

by TheGrinch13 on Apr 24, 2010 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wrong

It’s neither obvious nor is he even remotely ready for the big leagues. Slow your roll ….

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 25, 2010 7:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

I remember reading an article about Ryan Braun

back at the start of the 2007 season , I suppose, which discussed exactly the whole “keep players in the minors to gain an extra cost-controlled year later on” business (Braun made his major league debut on May 25 2007).

The writer’s argument was that this kind of thing was generally restricted to players like Braun, Strasburg and (let’s all hope) Castro who are seen as sure things at the major league level. With more borderline – or less exceptional, if you prefer – players, there’s no need to manipulate their ML service time because they’re probably going to shuttle back and forth between MLB and the minors several times and you can tweak the exact dates over the course of those moves. Being held down in the minors until late May-June is a sign that the player’s expected to make it for good straight away.

by Limey Cub Fan Jay on Apr 26, 2010 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

I guess the Braves didn't read that article.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Apr 26, 2010 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

Guess not

Or maybe they did, but figured that they don’t have any power at all and having some in the lineup might be worth 10-15 mill in six years’ time.

by Limey Cub Fan Jay on Apr 26, 2010 7:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

It has nothing to do with not wanting to win

It has to do with the fact that keeping Castro in the minor leagues can save us a huge amount of money in the future. And saving money = more financial flexibility in the future = more wins in the future. And even if you don’t care about the financial aspect, he’ll hit free agency one year later, so the question becomes do I want Castro on the team now, or do I want him on the team for an extra year 6 years from now. Also, I’m not convinced that Castro isn’t that big enough of an upgrade over what we have now. Theriot’s not good, but he’s not terrible either. Replacing him with Castro (or moving him to 2B and essentially replacing Baker with Castro) wouldn’t be enough of an upgrade to justify starting the arbitration clock a year early. If we had Neifi Perez at SS, there’d be a stronger argument for Castro.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Apr 24, 2010 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

Comments like these...

… are why we need an anti-rec button.

by Orval Overall on Apr 27, 2010 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions  

This dude...

…seems to get 2 hits every night, I hope he keeps it up.

If they need him before Sept 1st, that means something isn’t going very well, so be careful what you wish for.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Apr 23, 2010 10:10 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Rec'd

The Riot better get better or the Cubs are in real trouble.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Apr 23, 2010 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

Because if Theriot does his job, the Cubs are a good team.

Lol.

Everyone's thought process with this team is that the playoffs start now. Tomorrow is going to be Day One of our run to October.

-- Marlon Byrd

by Ryno Runner on Apr 24, 2010 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well things aren't going well right now

So personally, I think they should be close to bringing him up now.

by shoemile on Apr 23, 2010 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

since a team gets only 6 (or 7) years before free agency, shouldnt they make sure he's ready?

let’s assume for a moment that Castro turns into a star. Once he gets his full 6 years, he will command a monster salary, which will limit Ricketts’ ability to pay somebody else. In that regard, he will no longer be anything special, because he will be earning the market rate. Given that you only get 6/7 years of bargain prices, I think you should maximize his value by making sure that he is ready to produce at a high level. He just turned 20. I suggest a September callup, and bring him up for good in July 2011, then keep him cost controlled through 2017. I call this “long term planning”, something that is rarely used in the same sentence as “Chicago Cubs”.

by holy mackeral on Apr 24, 2010 2:35 PM CDT reply actions  

If he is as good as theyb say he is, does it really matter? Won't the Cubs lock him up

before that 6th or 7th year?

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Apr 24, 2010 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

The Cubs have an MO

of not going to arbitration with their arb eligible players. I think that Theriot was the first Cub to go to arb in the last decade. Usually the Cubs will sign a deal with an arb player to stay away from arb.

The real big savings is the first three years of a player’s career.

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Apr 27, 2010 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

I say bring him up for the SEA and CHW road games

That would be June 22-27. Get him 3 starts during interleague play (the first game, the thu afternoon SEA getaway game, and the Sunday game) and one start at Wrigley the following week, then send him back to AAA until the ASB.

Until then, I would like to see Castro work on trying to get a few walks, even if his batting average suffers a bit. He is C-Pat-esque in his aversion to them, and we all saw what happened when Patterson faced real MLB pitchers who could control the high fastball on the top of he strike zone.

But if Castro hits .350 in May, they will have no choice but to send him to Iowa, even if Darwin Barney’s feelings get hurt. Of course, one corresponding move would be to outright Chad Tracy and promote Barney to the big league club on 6/1.

It's a simple question, Doctor: would you eat the moon if it were made of ribs??

by Invalid User on Apr 24, 2010 9:59 PM CDT reply actions  

This is a fantasy baseball move.

So are many of the moves proposed here. This is the kind of thing you’d do if you owned a fantasy team — slot a player in for a few games, then put him back on the bench, or in the “minors” if your league has such a thing.

Real life, and real baseball, simply don’t work that way.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Apr 25, 2010 7:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

logic fail

you miss the point that he has hit 100 points higher than C Pat despite being a year younger at the same level as well as his other wordly performance against top prospects in the AZ Fall League—something Patterson never had.

100 point difference is like Derek Jeter to Aaron Miles—it’s a huge gap.

by socalbob on Apr 25, 2010 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions  

Small Sample Size Fail

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 25, 2010 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

bullcraqp

full year of AA for Patterson and now 1/2 a season albeit younger as well as an outstanding AZ Fall League.

Baseball intellect failure on your part. But typical move from you. Come in well after the posts and just spew your garbage on everyone without ever once writing something where you could be critiqued on. Turn the page.

We are just lucky to live in your world, I guess. But continue on thinking you can reasonably comp Patterson to Castro.

by socalbob on Apr 26, 2010 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

So we're willing to lose...

in order to save money. I get that its a business, but that doesn’t mean i can’t bitch about it. Then again, it pays to let even a “sure thing” like Castro bubble for a while. Two words: Billy Beane.

"Hating the Yankees is as American as pizza pie, unwed mothers, and cheating on your income tax"
-Mike Royko

by Inthejungle on Apr 25, 2010 4:21 PM CDT reply actions  

Keeping Castro down isn't directly resulting in losses

Theriot isn’t playing poorly by any means, so replacing him with someone who may or may not work out isn’t going to do much for us in the wins department.

by Pre on Apr 27, 2010 5:15 AM CDT up reply actions  

No. This is the kind of hysterical nonsense that needs to be cut out.

You will probably lose more games in the short term as a result of relying on a 20 year old rookie SS instead of a veteran. In the long term, if he’s developed correctly, hopefully Castro wins many more games for you than Theriot would.

LET THE KID DEVELOP. HE’S 20 YEARS OLD FOR CRYING OUT LOUD.

by Orval Overall on Apr 27, 2010 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions  

The question seems to be "Has he already developed enough?". That's why

there are so many posts like this. A large share of people seem to think that he is developed enough and any time spent in the minors now is wasted effort that could be used to acclimate him to the big leagues. Just because he is 20 doesn’t mean he hasn’t devolped into a serviceable major league player. Some guys mature early. It’s up to the Cubs to determine if he is indeed ready for the big leagues. If he is ready, age should not be a determining factor.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Apr 27, 2010 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

Not so much . . .

I don’t think he will be that big of a game-changing factor over Theriot in the first 3 months, so now we aren’t sacrificing losing, unless it is 5-6 games max. I will take 5-6 loses this year and keep $10 mil

by CubsGuy12 on Apr 28, 2010 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

WAIT!

I say we definately need to wait until he is not eligible for the “Super Two” status. I do not think when he first comes up he will be THATT much better than Theriot, at least he wont be to the point of $10 million we could use to sign another great player.
So definately wait on him to maybe even develope even more, and then bring him up, until then Theriot will be fine.

by CubsGuy12 on Apr 28, 2010 9:41 AM CDT reply actions  

You're throwing out that $10 million like it's carved in stone. That is a huge estimate

based on questionable numbers at best. With so much money coming on and off the books, you have no way of knowing whether money paid to Castro is going to prevent the Cubs from signing another player. You are basing this on events that will happen years in the future. There’s no way of knowing what the Cubs payroll will look like when the they have to re-up with Castro.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Apr 28, 2010 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions  

That is correct . .

but we know for sure it will be money nonetheless, and the better he is the more money he is worth, correct? So in that case if we would only be losing 3 mil or even less, then that means he wouldnt be nearly as good as previously stated.
So either way we shouldnt bring him up yet, because if he is good enough to be a Super Two, then he will be paid accordingly.
As a fan, I want this talent as soon as possible, but to think about it in the manager’s perspective, I say definately wait.

by CubsGuy12 on Apr 28, 2010 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions  

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