Five Questions in My Mind as the Season Opens

by DGU on Apr 4, 2010 5:35 PM CDT

Ready for the season to open!

This is what I'm wondering.

1. Young pitching is fun to watch - for me at least, if not for Lou! Which arms will step up and which will shuttle back and forth? Is Caridad for real? Which other rookies will secure long-term jobs? Will Gorzelanny live up to the potential his peripherals showed last season?

2. 32 of the Cubs' first 38 games are against teams that finished below .500 in '09. Will a hot start convince the Cub decision makers that this team is better than it is? By no means am I writing the season off, but if the Cubs don't end up a championship caliber team, I want them to be able to trade off veteran talent... which leads to...

3. Are Ricketts and Hendry capable of a solid mid-season sell-off? In particular, Lilly and Lee sound like they might want to stick with the Cubs, but if the team is not a contender, keeping them probably doesn't make sense. So, what might we get for them if they're having a good season and Ricketts oks a fire sale and Hendry accomplishes it?

4. Whither Aramis Ramirez? Will he opt out again? If so, will the Cubs re-sign him or let him go? Even if the Cubs do rebuiid, Aramis could easily be a part of a winning team later. I'd keep him and I suspect Hendry will, too.

5. When the Cubs chose Fukudome and Bradley versues the other options on the market, Hendry prioritized OBP and defense, which was a break from previous trends. With Bradley out and Dome following fast, has Hendry soured on that type of player, or just these particular players?

Anyway, our speculation will only take us so far, which is why I'm glad the season itself will start to answer these questions. Three cheers for opening day!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

Tweet Comment 55 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Bullpen

and hitting with runners in scoring position are my worries.
Winning will have a long way in what the Cubs do with Ramy and Lee, and vise/versa.

by Grockcubs on Apr 4, 2010 6:22 PM CDT reply actions

Aramis Ramirez is probably past his peak

Which is another problematic element facing this Cub franchise in the next few years. Ramirez is starting to enter a “broken down” phase I’m afraid….still supremely important to the Cubs and this team’s best and most vital run producer mind you, but not the player he was.

The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.

by BLou on Apr 4, 2010 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions

I beg to differ

His OPS+ last year was 130. From ‘06-’08, his OPS+ was 126, 128, and 126, in each respective season. His production hasn’t dipped at all, when he’s been healthy. The only question is whether he can stay healthy. I would have to be blown away by an offer to move him.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Apr 4, 2010 7:57 PM CDT up reply actions

Actually I sort of take that back

Assuming we get a good package of prospects in return, I’d move him. And here’s the funny thing about that: the better Ramirez plays, the more likely he’ll be to opt out, AND the better package of prospects we’ll be able to get in return. It’s a double-whammy. If he’s hitting like his usual self, and we’re not contending, I think we’d have to move him since he’ll opt out anyways.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Apr 4, 2010 8:01 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm not sure Ramirez can stay all that healthy anymore

And that is the crux of my contention that he is past his peak. Again, still a good ballplayer and supremly important to the Cubs. But not the player he once was for this team. And hence another reason for my bearish outlook for this team.

The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.

by BLou on Apr 4, 2010 8:05 PM CDT up reply actions

Why?

Because of a shoulder that’s healed?

He does miss time every year. That’s why it’s good the Cubs have Chad Tracy to back him up — that’s way better than what the team had last year.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Apr 4, 2010 8:11 PM CDT up reply actions

He was never a 162-games-a-year guy anyways

Which is why I question your contention of him falling off.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Apr 5, 2010 1:32 AM CDT up reply actions

He dives for a ball and dislocate his shoulder and you say he can't stay healthy?

That’s an unrealistic level for any player. When he got hurt on 5/9/09 here were his splits: .364/.417/.591.

"On offense, your most precious possessions are your 27 outs" - Earl Weaver

by RiskyBusiness on Apr 5, 2010 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions

I hope for a mid-season selloff

I really do. My bearish viewpoint on the 2010 Cubs is abundantly clear. Come June and July I would like nothing more than to see Jim Hendry somehow, someway going into sell mode while meanwhile Starlin Castro (and perhaps and Andrew Cashner) show that they are nearing major league readiness.

If Ted Lilly comes back and pitches well, he is going to have definite market value. Any number of contenders would welcome his addition to their staff, especially given his expiring contract. Derrek Lee might also look awfully good to San Francisco come mid-season.

The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.

by BLou on Apr 4, 2010 7:41 PM CDT reply actions

Let's assume the bearish view for a moment...

… do you think Ricketts will sign off on a sell off – especially if the team’s record looks better than the team really is?

… do you think Hendry will effect a sell off if Ricketts has not signed off on one?

"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts

by DGU on Apr 4, 2010 8:07 PM CDT up reply actions

sell off = lost season

which I dont see RIcketts accepting in his first season of ownership. I see the Cubs competing and Ricketts opening the wallet alittle around the deadline

Unofficial Self Appointed President of the Castro Blocker Fan Club

by Cubbie-Tim on Apr 4, 2010 8:11 PM CDT up reply actions

Hard, cold OBJECTIVITY is what has been missing in this organization

Tom Ricketts strikes me as an acutely intelligent and pragmatic business man. He’s gonig to hopefully let objective analysis rule decision-making. NOT denial and rationalization run amuk.

The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.

by BLou on Apr 4, 2010 8:21 PM CDT up reply actions

That being the case....

… you’ll surely understand why such an acutely intelligent and pragmatic businessman doesn’t just run around the office handing out “YOU’RE FIRED!” cards, until he has a good handle on his employees and how they do their jobs.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Apr 4, 2010 8:31 PM CDT up reply actions

you beat me to it Al

a new owner doesnt just fire everyone and start fresh, that would set them too far back, and would also be a reason others lose interest, since people dont want to be in a job always looking over their shoulder wondering when the ax comes for them.

Unofficial Self Appointed President of the Castro Blocker Fan Club

by Cubbie-Tim on Apr 4, 2010 8:41 PM CDT up reply actions

What would the "YOU’RE FIRED!" cards look like?

Would the come with the Cubs logo on them? Maybe the Cubs walking bear logo would be appropriate.

"On offense, your most precious possessions are your 27 outs" - Earl Weaver

by RiskyBusiness on Apr 5, 2010 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Apr 5, 2010 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions

Nice

Wonder if Zambrano got that yesterday for his non-Ace performance.

"On offense, your most precious possessions are your 27 outs" - Earl Weaver

by RiskyBusiness on Apr 6, 2010 8:05 AM CDT up reply actions

This team

will not go into blow up mode, those days are over. You view this team as a 70 win team, which is far from the truth. Cubs will sprinkle in youth, but as far as a complete over-haul, you will wait a long time.

by Grockcubs on Apr 4, 2010 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions

A 70-win team isn't that far from the truth

Any realistic person can’t possibly predict more than about 85 wins from this team. They might exceed expectations and do a little better, or they might underperform and win 70 games or fewer.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Apr 5, 2010 1:35 AM CDT up reply actions

there's no way

this team loses 13 more games than last year without something REALLY catastrophic. Practically every starting player was injured at some time with Ramirez gone for 60 days. This team simply isn’t that bad.

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Apr 5, 2010 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions

And every starting player could get injured again.

Lightning does strike twice.

And considering how many of our key players are over the age of 30, it’s not unreasonable to expect further regression for a bunch of them. And it’s not like everybody underperformed last year. Lee, Lilly, and Wells repeating last year’s performances isn’t exactly a given. I’d really like to be optimistic about this year’s team, but I just can’t.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Apr 5, 2010 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions

sure

but it’s not likely. I think it’s much more likely that while Lee and Lilly regress some, the players who did really poorly will improve. Soto and Rami especially.

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Apr 5, 2010 8:59 PM CDT up reply actions

Seriously BLou ?

I thought you might have a heart attack when you read part of Ricketts interview with the Sun-Times re Hendry and this being a make or break season for him and the front office you so detest. I am sure you can dismiss it as fluff, but
does not sound like he wants to throw Hendry out to me. I guess that is why you are so eager for the Cubs to lose. You believe if they are bad , Hendry will get fired and you want him fired more than you want the Cubs to win. Anyway here is what Rickets said

“TR: First of all, it’s been a great six months to start to get to know these guys better in the front office. As I’ve said many times, it’s been the most pleasant surprise that we’ve had, how good the people are on the baseball side, how well the organization appears to be running and developing players and getting toward putting a great team on the field. And on the business side, too, the dedication and the commitment of the people there and what they’ve been able to accomplish.

With respect to this season being any more important than any other season in their careers, I don’t ‘think so. It’s a matter of everyone knows that they have to perform at a high level every year, and we really do want a very high level of performance out of everyone in the organization, and we want to make them accountable. There’s nothing about this year that’s any different than years past in terms of how important it is, but it will be really enlightening for us. We’ll learn a lot about everybody this year. But so far so good."

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim

by Doggie Stalker on Apr 4, 2010 9:24 PM CDT up reply actions

Don't confuse him with the facts.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Apr 4, 2010 9:42 PM CDT up reply actions

When was the last time you saw a major market team like the Cubs execute a wholesale

selloff? They just don’t operate that way. They have to stay competitive because they have to satisfy their fanbase. The Cubs have some pretty nice players coming up and they can move these guys in and still stay competitive. The Cubs, Yankees and Dodgers don’t “back up the truck”. As much as you want to see sweeping changes, it’s not going to happen that way. Guys like Lee and Lilly will be moved out as their contracts expire and Fukudome might be traded if the money is right, but you won’t be seeing a fire sale around here anytime soon.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Apr 4, 2010 11:25 PM CDT up reply actions

Moving Lilly and Lee (arguably our two best players) would constitute a fire sale in my mind.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Apr 5, 2010 1:39 AM CDT up reply actions

a fire sale

is what the Pirates do whenever their players get good enough to demand real money. A fire sale for the Cubs would have to include every movable contract — Lee, Lilly, Riot, Rami, Dome.

It’s just not happening. Teams like the Cubs retool, not rebuild.

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Apr 5, 2010 9:26 AM CDT up reply actions

I guess I just have a different view of the term fire sale

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Apr 5, 2010 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions

Great questions...

…and these questions are one reason I would be more comfortable if the Cubs had someone between Hendry and Ricketts who was a good baseball man and had a track record of organization building.

With that said, with the wild card, you have to be in pretty bad shape to be out of it at the trade deadline. Basically, a .500 record usually has you within 5 games of the playoff hunt at the end of July. If by chance, they are clearly out of it at that point, the season would have gone quite badly up until that point and would be the true test as to whether Ricketts has the balls to sell of name players in exchange for a better chance to win 2-3 years down the road.

I’ll say this again – Ramirez’ loose shoulder scares the shit out of me and I hope that is a false concern.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Apr 5, 2010 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions

I count at least 11 questions

:=)

Unofficial Self Appointed President of the Castro Blocker Fan Club

by Cubbie-Tim on Apr 4, 2010 8:19 PM CDT reply actions

Some of them

were sacrifice questions meant to move over the questions already on base.

by DGU on Apr 4, 2010 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions

well played!

"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is." -- Yogi Berra

by vonde6 on Apr 5, 2010 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions

I could see the Cubs selling DLee and Lilly and still competing for the WC

To me the first issue is DLee and moving Soriano or actually finding a place for Colvin. Could Soriano play an adequate 1B? DLee could provide the Cubs a couple of future major leaguers but remember the trade value would be competing with SD.

Lilly of course would also be a valuable sell off…pitching and a lefty is always important.

Of course this is a stroke of brilliance if Cashner or Jackson or both are ready and Silva & Gorz can hold the fort as well.

To me the long term on Ramirez is whether the Cubs could actually trade Soriano in 2011 and move Ramirez to 1B through 2014? But again Ramirez has to take his option, this way the Cubs could bring up Vitters for 2011along with Castro and have a very young left side. By 2012 Cubs will need to have a RF’er ready as well and probably a 2B.

To me the question is how do you trade Soriano?

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Apr 4, 2010 10:25 PM CDT reply actions

I don't think Soriano is tradeable for 3 months at least

at least – and even then he has to hit like he did the first two years of his time with the Cubs.

by DGU on Apr 4, 2010 11:00 PM CDT up reply actions

oh I know that is a pipedream

He is a Cubs Giambi——load somewhere…

But when you start seeing the pipeline and the contracts you can see moving Soriano out of LF and opening a place for Colvin, then moving Ramirez and opening a place for Vitters.

The rotation can have an orderly transition if the young arms are for real.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Apr 4, 2010 11:18 PM CDT up reply actions

It really depends on how much they want to gid rid of Soriano and

how big of a dent Ricketts can handle. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him moved. The good thing about a large market team like the Cubs is that they can afford to to make mistakes like the Soriano contract and still recover. Kansas City? not so much.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Apr 4, 2010 11:50 PM CDT up reply actions

Double edged sword....

…because chances are, if Soriano is doing real well, the Cubs will be in the race and won’t trade him. If Soriano is doing poorly, they could be in a poor playoff position and have the difficulty of trying to deal Soriano with absolutely no bargaining power.

IMO, Soriano will be here for at least 2 more years regardless of his performance. There is no way Ricketts is going to eat the money required to move him anywhere, it’s just too damn expensive.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Apr 5, 2010 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions

You think that, with all the question marks on this team, that we could make the playoffs without Lee and Lilly?

And you can’t trade Soriano without eating a lot of salary, which would defeat the point.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Apr 5, 2010 1:41 AM CDT up reply actions

Soriano is not going to be traded.

For one thing, as noted elsewhere, he has a full NTC.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Apr 5, 2010 5:06 AM CDT up reply actions

so does everyone else

on the team

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 5, 2010 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions

Even if he didn't its hard to imagine

by ol Pete on Apr 6, 2010 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions

I dont think a firesale is realistic

For one, we’re not going to get much for Lee or Lilly given they’re impending FA’s.

I also don’t think the organization is going to wholesale rebuild anymore, which is fine. I’m pessimistic on the team’s immediate future, but I don’t think a fire-sale is necessary to cure things. I think not giving long-term extensions is what is necessary and not tying up financial flexibility

If Lee and Lilly want to come back and want to do it on 2 year extensions at reasonable levels (think $10 million a year), I think that’s fine. They’re not blocking any prospects immediately and there’s enough larger contracts around them coming off the books (Fukudome, Silva) that they could reasonably be fit into a budget of 130-140 million.

The problem is in tying up flexibility in positions where we could have prospects coming down the line and doing it for a long number of years 3+. For example I think whether we pursue an extension with Aramis will come down to Vitters minor league season. If Vitters looks like he’s putting it together it would make sense to let Aramis walk and try to plug the hole for a year or two until Vitters is ready. If Vitters looks awful and there’s no immediate 3B help in the pipeline it makes sense to potentially extend him and pass on Lee or Lilly

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 5, 2010 10:52 AM CDT reply actions

Does Vitters really impact Aramis as much as DLee?

by DGU on Apr 5, 2010 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions

It could be either or

but my take on Vitters is you’re planning on him being your 3B of the future and then shifting if need be

Since Aramis has higher cost both per year and in years based on age, I think he becomes the guy you’re more willing to let walk

but if Vitters doesn’t look like the replacement than there’s no obvious guy in the organization in the next 2-3 years and it becomes more difficult to let Ramirez walk

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 5, 2010 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions

Why not let Lee walk, resign Rami, try to plug the hole at 1B and move Rami to 1B when Vitters is ready?

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Apr 5, 2010 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions

because Rami

will cost more years, you’re not getting Ramirez on a 2 year extension, you’re likely going to have go 4-5 years and that’s the type of mistake we should be looking to avoid with a guy on the wrong side of 30

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 5, 2010 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions

Except he's also younger

The choice is between Lee at ages 35 and 36 and Ramirez at ages 32, 33, 34, 35, and 36. I’ll take the latter.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Apr 5, 2010 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions

i disagree

because of cost and projectability

Ramirez will cost more in average annual salary so lets say Ramirez costs 14 million a year, and DLee costs 10 for years 35 and 36 for Ramirez you’re paying him 4 more million a year

plus DLee is much more projectable right now for the next two years than Ramirez will be for the next 5

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 5, 2010 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions

I'd argue that Rami's the type of player that probably won't fall off the map in terms of production.

His game is predicated on power and plate discipline, so odds are he’ll still be at least an average player at age 35. And even if he declines in a major way, all our big contracts besides Soriano will be off the books, so we’ll be able to stomach that. Also, last I checked we have 0 1B/3B prospects projected to become starting-quality players in our system, besides Vitters, who’s far from a sure thing.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Apr 5, 2010 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions

those would be fair arguments

i addressed the Vitters thing before in posts above, I think the choice between DLee and Ramirez would come down to in some way how Vitters had performed this year and how close the organization believed him to be

Remember within projection its not only skills but health and while neither are easy to project, you have a far greater likelihood of being accurate in 2 years as opposed to 5.

In general I’m a proponent of flexibility and shorter term contracts allow more flexibility, which is why in this instance i’d lean (slightly) towards Lee (if willing to do a 2 year extension) as opposed to Aramis

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 5, 2010 10:56 PM CDT up reply actions

The other factor that may play into the Cubs' consideration

is the free agent market. Aramis may be the only good 3B on the market (we’ll see if Beltre revives his value in Boston). On the other hand, there are a number of LH 1B options. Chad Tracy could be in consideration.

by DGU on Apr 6, 2010 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions

that works both ways though

the FA market could be very thin at 3B and the Cubs could convince themselves they can’t let Ramirez go OR it could make it so that Ramirez gets an offer way beyond what he should and the Cubs are forced to let him walk

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 6, 2010 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions

Well

Aramis will be an interesting case because he’s taken a whole lot less to play for the Cubs before and because of the buy-out clause. If he takes less again, and he has a reasonably healthy season, it’s hard to let walk one of the top 5 3B in the game.

Additionally making things interesting is his propensity for the opt-out contract which might finally come back to bite the signing team this contract, but could also mean we’re only signing another 2-3 year contract.

by DGU on Apr 6, 2010 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions

i agree

it will be an EXTREMELY interesting case this offseason as a whole presents

my concern is that he leverages the “i took a discount before” talk into more years this time along with that player option

that’s the worst-case scenario, giving Aramis a 5-6 year deal with an opt out that he’s never likely to exercise

Looking at the budget construction for the next few years my hope is that the Cubs could give a 1 year extension to DLee OR a 2-3 year extension to Aramis, and a 2 year extension to Lilly. If we can’t get Lee for 1 year or Aramis for 2-3, i’d prefer we sit out.

The problem is I just don’t think Aramis is likely for anything less than 4 years, which starts to get to an age I don’t want to deal with paying a guy 10+ million a year

The reason being the players likely to hit FA after the 2011 season is LOADED at 1B

Pujols
Adrian Gonzalez
Prince Fielder
Ryan Howard

This is why you don’t want to go beyond 1 year with Lee as to not block the opportunity to go after one of those guys

In fact given some of the elite hitting options that may be available that winter, it might make sense not to extend Lilly knowing you have Zambrano/Dempster tied up and hope to fill the other 3 slots in the rotation with prospects

Grady Sizemore, for example, is also set to be a FA

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 6, 2010 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions

5 Questions, 5 Answers

1. Pitching. I think a better question might be “Which reliever will be in Lou’s doghouse?” Lou and Larry like to carry 7 relief pitchers because one of them will end up in Lou’s doghouse. So Lou effectively uses only 6 relievers and a 24 man-roster. Actually, with the rookie-laden bullpen the Cubs have the option to taxi the bullpen to AAA a lot.

2. A big trade-off seems so doubtful in the “Year One” of the Ricketts. No way that Ricketts will go “white flag” if the Cubs are near the division leader.

3. I’m not much for trade predictions. But the best value for both Lilly and Lee is that neither of them are signed past this year.

4. Ramirez transitioning to 1B sounds realistic if he does not opt out. That also lowers his odds of dislocating that same shoulder again.

5. I think the Cubs still value OBP and defense and Fukudome still possesses both of those skills. The souring on Fukudome should be for his batting average and power numbers. But his OBP-to-BA gap is great – over 100 points each year.

"On offense, your most precious possessions are your 27 outs" - Earl Weaver

by RiskyBusiness on Apr 5, 2010 1:24 PM CDT reply actions