Getting to know the Tennessee Smokies

We have teams without them.

Love the recaps, as always. Today, not Monday, is opening day.

Chirinos has long been tabbed as a guy that could make it as a manager. He’s long been noted for his leadership and was viewed as a big brother type. Thing is … his defense reportedly was a huge surprise, showing much better skills than anticipated. His bat likely won’t play as well as it did in Daytona, but if he hits enough, there’s some folks out there that believe he could be next man up at catcher (as a stopgap) if they don’t think Castillo is ready.

Clevenger is the same guy he’s always been – a contact bat with a decent approach but minimal power. He’s made strides defensively, and like Chirinos, is a guy that could be a backup backstop if the right situation presented itself.

Canzler has been getting work at 3rd base and will likely see time there. His best chance at moving up is if he takes well to other positions, because he hasn’t shown enough power as a corner guy. 3rd base is a black hole in the system somewhat, because after Vitters, there really isn’t that much.

Flaherty’s gone from overhyped (in his draft year) to a bit underhyped (I understand why (age/level) but he would’ve been up in Daytona last year had the D-Cubs stuck around the race, so I’m not that concerned yet), IMO. Solid top 10 prospect for us. He fixed his swing in-season last year. A middle infielder with power is a nice commodity. Here’s the thing – he actually showed well defensively as a shortstop last year. Not great, and there was never a real chance that he would make it up to the bigs as a shortstop, but in another system, he might’ve moved up the system as a shortstop. He’ll get some playing time at 3rd, where he should have enough power. I hope he gets PT at 2nd – there’s no reason to think he can’t stick there. If I have a concern, it’s actually with his bat. I want to see if he can make enough contact (say, be a .270ish hitter – fairly certain, but still have some tiny questions). Good approach, though. He also has poor platoon splits last year. Some bad luck involved, but improved consistency against lefties would help. I’ve said it before, but if Flaherty gets the opportunity at 2nd, I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re talking about whether or not we should call him up this year. The fact that Flaherty will get to work with Castro is nice.

Tony Thomas has really tumbled in stature since his summer in Boise. There are still lingering concerns with his defense at 2nd. The bigger issues are with the bat. He doesn’t really profile as a leadoff hitter (big swing, K’s a lot). He’s not a great baserunner. After a hot April of 2009, he fell hard, with a horrible June being a low-point. Does he still have the ability to put it together? Sure, but with our MI depth, he has to do it soon. If last year wasn’t make or break, then this year definitely is. Heck, he might need a hot start. Look for him to get some OF time as well.

I was really high on Opitz coming out. Had a lot of tools that made you think, well, if he makes enough contact to go with that power, he might make an intriguing MI. He also has a decent approach at the plate. That said, he hasn’t put together a great enough campaign before to garner focus and the contact issues look like they are a fair question. He’s played some OF before, and I expect to see him basically be a utility guy that moves around. Like Thomas, it’ll be tough for him to get the PT to really get attention.

Blake Lalli and Nate Samson are personal favorites of mine. They are, more than likely, system guys. Lalli was a former catcher who signed as a UDFA, IIRC. He was a do everything go in the lower levels, even coming in to pitch a few times. That said, he wasn’t going to stick behind the plate, and he simply doesn’t have the power for a CI slot. Samson has a superb approach, arguably the best in the system. His glove is actually decent at short. I know some folks still believe that there might be a tiny bit more pop that may develop. The neutralized numbers on his offense last year weren’t bad. He needs the opportunity, but I could see him make it up as a utility infielder type if the right situation presented itself. Like Thomas/Opitz, though, it’s going to be a tough fight to get enough AB’s to show himself. The organization seems willing to give him a chance. He worked a bit with Iowa this spring.

Campana’s one of the faster guys in the system, but my issue is with his approach. With his fringe bat, he can’t strike out as much, IMO. Still, with his speed, in the right situation, you never know if a team needs a pinch runner. The Cubs tasked Guyer with finding his power stroke this offseason in his assignments. Without the power, his chances of making it up are much slimmer. I’ll be curious how much power Matt Spencer shows. He needs to step it up a notch in the power development to really force some attention. He could also improve his approach at the plate. Very good arm, though (and hence why some folks believe he could make a transition to pitching if need be). Ty Wright will need more power to have a shot, and that seems unlikely.

My Cubs number 5th prospect (2nd pitching prospect) is Cashner. Last year, he lost the touch on his slider. It still had the nasty movement. It showed well in the fall. He’s working on a circle-change. The move to AA makes it clear that the Cubs will try this starting experiment as long as they can (either the need at the bigs forces their hand or Cashner forces their hand). What to watch for? K’s and innings. As great a fastball as he has (BA indicated that Cashner’s fastball was in that 2nd tier, behind Strasburg/Chapman/Feliz, 3 guys with superb fastballs), he didn’t strike out nearly enough guys last year (even in Daytona, a 7.34 K rate is decent, but not great). The inconsistent slider was definitely one factor, and no real 3rd offering is another. If the slider is on, the K’s should rise. Can Cashner work deeper and maintain his stuff? That’s an unknown. Many have doubts (including myself) but to be fair, he was on a pitch count last year. If Cashner puts it all together (goes deeper, develops the change, is consistent with the slider), he is the top pitching prospect in the system. As of now, I still favor Jay Jackson as Jay’s chances of developing into a solid starter (ceiling of a 2, likelihood more mid-rotation) is higher due to a deeper arsenal and better durability. Also, Jay could be an excellent late inning arm as well (he’s shown mid-upper 90’s in short spurts, and he has an excellent slider to go with a curve). More on him later.

One of the more frustrating things last year was seeing the Cubs trot out Chris Carpenter after a 45 minute rain delay. Considering his history, that seemed like an unnecessary risk. Granted, they claim there was no issue. His health history magnifies the health issues now. Of course, the TJ actually had nothing to do with baseball (IIRC), and the subsequent cleanup wasn’t a factor. But it is fair cause for concern. The early indications are that there is no serious issue. When on, he sports a mid 90’s fastball, to go with a big curve, and a decent change. He even got 1 vote to be on a top 150 list this offseason IIRC (I believe one BA writer gave him a vote).

I’ll be curious how the rotation fills out. I’m fairly certain that Muschko will be in it. Craig Muschko is a guy the organization is quite pleased with. He throws strikes, he works fast. He has some issues warming up. At his best, he’s a guy who locates and attacks with a low 90’s fastball, decent slider, decent change.

Hung-Wen Chen was probably a tad overhyped in some places last year, but here’s a guy with good secondary offerings and enough on his high 80’s/low 90’s fb that he has a shot to be a rubber arm type if he gets the opportunity. Jeremy Papelbon may be in the rotation as well, as he has some issues warming up. He offers a deep arsenal, but no great pitches. His future is likely in the pen … if he pushes his way up.

Austin Bibens-Dirx has a decent fast/slider/change combination. It’s reportedly tightened up a bit since his Seattle days. Could I see him be like Muschko? Definitely possible, There’s some deception to his pitches. Taking more of a wait and see, as his success last year is hard to judge since he was so much more experienced than other Low A guys.

I imagine Marcos Mateo will be in the pen. He has good life on his fastball and a slider that shows potential, but he’s inconsistent and lacks a 3rd pitch. What’s noticeable was that, once he moved to the pen last year, his K rate increased. Marco Carrillo is somewhat similar to Hung-Wen Chen as guys with average fastballs, decent secondary offerings.

Ryan Buchter and Dustin Sasser are both intriguing lefties. I give a slight edge to Buchter (who we got from the Nationals in the Matt Avery deal), as he has, reportedly, better life on the fastball, able to run it more consistently in the low 90’s. Sasser went to E. Carolina, where he had TJ once upon a time. He peaks more in the low 90’s. Both have good enough secondary options (but I’m blanking on Sasser, Buchter is a curve and a change, IIRC).

David Cales won the the MiLBY for Class A Advanced Reliever of the Year. He grew up a White Sox fan. Cales, IIRC, offers a low 90’s fastball and a good slider. He got some AA time last year (and some AAA time). He has a good approach and attacks hitters, and has some deception with his delivery. Alessandro Maestri also offers a fastball and slider, and his stuff is better than Cales (for awhile, Maestri had the best slider in the system, and reports last summer put his fastball in the mid-90’s on his return). The control was bad. Considering he was working his way back, let’s give him some time. He had fairly solid control in the low minors.

Muyco has a reported “bulldog” approach akin to Blake Parker, working fast and attacking hitters based upon his past experience as a catcher (he was an excellent defensive catcher, arguably the best in the system at times, but had no bat). The FB velo was reportedly decent, low-mid 90’s. His secondary stuff has to be sharper.

Casey Lambert will be out most of the year rehabbing from TJ.

Tennessee – Top 4 and then a jumble

1. Starlin Castro

2. Andrew Cashner – Durability and circle-change improvement would make him a starter.

3. Chris Carpenter – I want to know more on the injury.

4. Ryan Flaherty – I went from thinking he was overhyped to underhyped. Solid defensive players with some pop in the MI are nice assets. In another system, he might have a shot to move up as a SS.

5. Craig Muschko – Excellent control, enough pitches, and I think slightly better stuff than given credit for.

6. Robinson Chirinos – Possible backup backstop.

7. Matt Spencer – Does he have enough power to rise?

8. David Cales – Somewhat a more consistent Maestri.

9. Alessandro Maestri – The raw stuff is good and am willing to hope some control comes back.

10. Brandon Guyer – Show me power, I’ll give love.

11. Steve Clevenger – Possible backup backstop.

Buchter would’ve been next for me. Top 4 are in a class to themselves. I’m open to ranking 5/6 in any order.