Feel Better Now? Cubs Shut Out Braves For First 2010 Victory
by Al Yellon on Apr 9, 2010 7:30 AM CDT
in Chicago Cubs Recaps
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PrintIf you feel good this morning about the Cubs' 2-0 win over the Braves, imagine how the players feel after finally getting that "0" out of the win column.
I thought the Braves might have enough to challenge the Phillies for the NL East title, or at least contend for the wild card, before the season started. Turns out that's an accurate assessment. The Cubs lost two of three to a pretty good ballclub with solid pitching. Rookie Jason Heyward appears as advertised, a rookie of the year candidate.
Or would you rather be the Mariners? They were expected to contend, but lost three of four to a not-so-great Athletics team. Or maybe you'd like to wake up this morning a member of the White Sox? They lost two of three to the Indians, a club that's likely destined for the AL Central basement. The Red Sox, Dodgers and Rockies, all playoff teams in 2009, all looking forward to repeats this year, all lost two of three in their opening series.
I've written this before, but it bears repeating: Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. People here were reacting to the two losses in the Braves series like they were playoff losses. Relax a little; it's way too early to panic. More on last night's win after the jump.
Lou Piniella definitely picked the right game to give Tyler Colvin his first start of the year. Colvin slammed his first major league home run off Tommy Hanson in his second at-bat of the year in the second inning. That and Marlon Byrd's solo homer, his second this season, in the fourth, were the only Cub runs. That is, I admit, a cause for concern -- since Opening Day, the Cubs offense hasn't exactly pounded the ball, scoring two runs in each of the subsequent two games. Give some credit to the pitchers -- both Hanson and Jair Jurrjens are among the top righthanders in the National League.
But so is Randy Wells, coming off last night's six shutout innings. Wells gave up only five singles and a double, along with a pair of walks, and got two double plays exactly when he needed them, to end Atlanta rallies in both the fifth and sixth innings.
Lou apparently intends to make Sean Marshall into a taller version of "Everyday Eddie" Guardado; Marshall made his third appearance in as many games, retiring both hitters he faced. Esmailin Caridad threw a nice inning, and Carlos Marmol registered his first save of the year. Marmol wasn't as sharp as he might have been; he was called on to get four outs, so he threw more pitches than many closers do (25) and didn't throw as many strikes as you'd like to see (only 15). Nevertheless, he ended the game with a perfect backdoor slider to Melky Cabrera for a called strike.
Now, what to do with Colvin? Lou said before the season even started that he was going to try to get Colvin three starts a week. The Reds are throwing three righthanders against the Cubs this weekend, so I'd be almost certain Colvin will start one of the three games, maybe in center field to give Byrd a day off. Expect Xavier Nady to make his first start in right field tonight; Colvin may wind up replacing him in the later innings.
So, the Cubs finish their first series of the year exactly one game behind the Cardinals. And the Pirates. You don't really expect the Pirates to be in that spot all year, do you? Incidentally, that's precisely where the 2008 Cubs stood after three games. Patience, and on to Cincinnati.
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Colvin
will have to play. Spelling Dome seems at this point the move to make. I know the Soriano haters will want Colvin in left, however Soriano needs to play. His contract is unmovable, and when he hits the Cubs win, simple. But if we are looking at mid June and Soriano is struggling, then Colvin should get more starts in left.
To bad Colvin can’t play short.
Colvin will be "rotating" around
Cubs are not benching Dome and if Colvin plays tonight it will be in CF or LF because Lou says Nady is playing in RF, It is not a crazy idea to rotate Colvin since he can play all 3 OF positions, but the fact they are also trying to give Nady one or two starts a week does make it more complicated. Byrd seems to be hitting well, but his defense is not so had and as usual, the less said about Sori the better.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 7:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Contract withstanding, Piniella if is to gain control
of the clubhouse he must play those who are producing. It is the unspoken language in highly competitive sports….you produce you play.
Fukudome contributed greatly last night if you weren’t watching, he held two base hits that should have been doubles into loud singles and maintained the double play..
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
BTW I don't hate Soriano, I dislike his production
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
You dislike his production? I dislike his lack of production... ;-)
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
Lou doesn't
have control of the clubhouse?
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions
That fielding grab out of the corner, turn and throw all in one motion was sick.
may addition by subtraction be real
Fukudome is too good a defender to sit
Fukudome made two great defensive plays last night. When you can field a ball hit to the corner of the wall and hold a guy to a single, and the lead runner at third, you keep playing.
Rotating Colvin in is a good plan. Plus the double switches later in the game will get him extra at-bats.
"On offense, your most precious possessions are your 27 outs" - Earl Weaver
by RiskyBusiness on Apr 9, 2010 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions
Fukudome's
defense last night was impeccable! The play you mention was excellent, but he did the same thing again later in the game, cutting off a ball hit into the right center field gap and holding the hitter to a single.
Plus, he made very good contact at the plate, unfortunately the balls were right at the left fielder. I can’t see keeping Fukudome out of too many games at this point.
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living." -- Alvin Dark
From the stands, I saw where that ball got parked when Dome took off after it
and kept the damage down. WHAT an arm! Byrd wasn’t no slouch either.
NO way you bench Dome.
Soriano better get it in his head. Colvin is the real deal. That boy made us sing last night! Let Soriano count his money on the bench and Ricketts take it as a business loss. I think Tyler’s got a big future ahead of him.
Blue mountains high .. Blue valleys low
I don't know which way we shall go ..
One summer dream .. one summer dream ..
coda
ELO, 1975
And Colvin showed the Gun lasy night too
His throw from left field to first base was spot on.
"On offense, your most precious possessions are your 27 outs" - Earl Weaver
by RiskyBusiness on Apr 9, 2010 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions
Colvin could
get the start in center
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living." -- Alvin Dark
That's hopping, limping, and loafing
"On offense, your most precious possessions are your 27 outs" - Earl Weaver
by RiskyBusiness on Apr 9, 2010 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions
Marlon Byrd has exactly two hits and one walk
for a 250 OBP, he’s not exactly lighting the world on fire with his bat. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Byrd sat tonight in favor of Colvin in CF
Byrd also had a 3rd hit robbed by a terrible terrible call
and a couple of very hard hit balls that were right at people.
Just because he has a .250 OBP through 3 games, you dont sit him.
An out is an out no matter how hard or where Byrd hit the ball.
I’m not advocating benching Byrd for the rest of the season or anything. The manager said Colvin is going to get 2-3 games a week and some of those will be in CF, likely on days when Byrd has the day off.
Its not too difficult to envision Colvin subbing for Byrd at least 1 time against Cincy this weekend. I think it’ll be tonight.
Byrd has a .250 OBP
And a .000 BABIP. SSS, but that’s a little on the low side.
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
it was a joke!!
I like Byrd – I’ve been arguing WITH you against goalpost mover for the last 2 hours. Deep breaths! haha.
Yeah......
I was responding to Clutch. I’m with you lugz……deep breaths. I’m not responding to his stuff any more…….unbelieveable.
No way...
…you don’t sit a guy who has 2 dingers in his first 3 games.
I don’t care what his avg is, the dude is producing RUNS.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Lou sat Soriano last night
after he went 2-4 with a double and single.
I’m only basing my comments on what the manager has been saying. Colvin starts 2-3 times a week and Nady 1-2 times a week.
Improved defense
It was hard to not notice the improved defense that Colvin and Hill brought to the game last night. Having Colvin and Fuku in the corners is huge. Koyie Hill did an awesome job behind the plate. Can’t underestimate those contributions.
I didn't really
see improvement on defense. Colvin didn’t do anything that Soriano couldn’t and I don’t think any of the balls Hill blocked, Soto wouldn’t have. Do I think they’re better defenders, yes. But I certainly didn’t see anything note worth last night.
Its funny, you spend most of your life gripping a baseball. And in the end, its almost always the other way around.
I don't know if Colvin didn't do anything Soriano couldn't do last night
but he is certainly a better fielder & runner than Sori.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions
That sliding stop
To keep Prado to a stand-up double was heads-up. I’m not saying Sori wouldn’t have made that play, but we have seen doubles turn into triples out there in LF before. More often than I would have liked last season…
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
Definitely Feel Better
Marshall continues to pitch well out of the bullpen. The Cubs are only 1 game out with 159 to go after being 2 out with 160 to go. There’s still hope!
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
As much as you can say it's early
There is a big difference between being 3 games down and being 1 game down to start the season. Glad things went the way they day yesterday. You couldn’t help but be worried if it had gone differently.
Heyward may wind up being...
a great player, and might even have a great rookie year. But Marmol made him look like Aaron Miles last night. That was awesome to watch. He had absolutely no chance on any of those sliders.
That HR by Colvin was a laser.
Byrd needs to work on his HR trot. He got around those bases really quickly! Hopefully he’ll have plenty of opportunities to perfect that.
Randy Wells looked just as good as last year. Fortunately Grabow didn’t blow it again (Lou wasn’t going to let that happen).
I hit straight ball very much
but I not hit curve ball. That’s why I pray to Jobu.
Fukudometer: Created 3/31/08 Wrigley Debut 4/5/08 WGN and Japan TV Debut 4/6/08 Sun Times Debut: 4/20/08 Coffee Table Debut: 7/17/08 (http://www.wearecubsfans.com)
Just don't drink Jobu's rum
that very bad.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Fuck you Jobu
I do it myself
All this buttoning and unbuttoning
by Marttisdad on Apr 9, 2010 8:59 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Jobu?
Where did that name come from?
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions
he raked a Dempster slider into the corner for a 2B
in Game 2
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Hats for bats, Keep bats warm
"God watches over drunks and third baseman."- Leo Durocher
by BelieveinBlue2314 on Apr 9, 2010 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Hey, that's my sig.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Apr 9, 2010 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions
we'll see
This kid seems to be what everybody says he is. I live in ATL and he is all they are talking about. The cheers for him, even before the first homerun, were louder than McCann or Chipper.
But I feel pretty good about a couple of our young players, I think Colvin will be strong and Wells will be the Wells of last year, and if he is and we score a few more, thats good.
Ive always been a theriot backer, and I know its only three games, but he better get on base a few times in cinci or another youngster might be on the way!
I think Heyward is the next Justin Upton
He will struggle his first year, showing flashes of brilliance. Then, in his second year, he’ll be one of the best outfielders in baseball.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
I see Griffey Jr
when i see him. Ive heard he is very mature and smart, but there are alot of expectations here for him and although that HR in 1st AB was great for him, it raised those expectations even higher. Id like to see the kid do great, just not against our Cubs!
C'mon, really?
Before we go crowning him something spectacular, the guy is 3-12, for a .250 batting average. He has 1 HR, 5 RBIs, but also has 4Ks. His OPS is .833 I believe? It’s a little early to declare what he is/isn’t, but I wouldn’t say he’s that spectacular as of yet.
i believe it
just so you know, Ken Griffey, Jr., had a .748 OPS in his first season. I don’t believe he’ll have the career Griffey did, but Heyward looks special to me like Griffey was early in his career… although not as flashy.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions
he's 20
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Heyward
I think he’ll be better than Brad Komminsk but not as good as Dale Murphy was.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
somewhere in this great land of ours...
…the president of the Brad Komminsk Fan Club just shed a tear.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
LOL
I can remember when Komminsk was heralded as the next great Braves outfielder. Uh, he didn’t even come remotely close to that. He was one of the biggest disappointments of the 1980’s.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
tell me about it
I remember getting our hopes up in Cleveland that he was going to turn his career around and fulfill his promise… ;-)
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Watching Marmol
make Heyward look foolish was the highlight of the night. Marmol certainly seemed to really buckle down when Heyward came to the plate and threw three of his best pitches of this outing. Just like the announcers said, Heyward has never seen a slider as vicious as Marmol’s.
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living." -- Alvin Dark
It was especially fun
since everyone in the ballpark knew what pitches Marmol was going to throw Heyward.
Good Morning, Good Afternoon, Good Night!
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living." -- Alvin Dark
I could just sense what White Castle was thinking when Heyward came up to hit
“You may be baseball’s next great player, but you haven’t seen MY stuff yet” and then he schooled him on 3 straight sliders. Loved it!
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
Al: Yes I feel good
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
I find it disturbing
That I don’t really find that picture all that disturbing anymore. Damn you, acclimation!
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
If you want to be disturbed...
… find that picture of a face with all the features turned upside-down.
There’s an example here, though you’ll have to download the image and rotate it yourself to get the disturbing effect. I had a psych textbook in college with a much more effective picture.
I like the "Puck"
the pug/duck
"Well-behaved women seldom make History"---Laurel Thatcher Ulrich
by cooliogirl47 on Apr 9, 2010 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions
That would be the Hawks fan in you speaking?
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
by eths on Apr 9, 2010 1:38 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
by eths on Apr 9, 2010 1:51 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I feel nice, like sugar and spice
"I mean, if we can’t take Colvin after the spring he’s had, something is wrong," -- Lou
8th and 9th innings are going to be tense this year
so long as both Marmol and Grabow are pitching in them and throwing as many balls as strikes.
Yes, it’s early in the season, so I’m not just basing this on what we’ve seen so far, but I expect Lou will come to trust Caridad and Marshall to fill the Marmol role from last season and Grabow will end up being the guy we call on to walk Colby Rasmus, Prince Fielder, and Joey Votto.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
you forgot Ryan Howard
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is." -- Yogi Berra
you're coming around!
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions
I've never been a big Grabow fan
I just figure you have to give most ML managers, and especially Lou, a few veterans in that pen.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
so give him some scrap heap guys
don’t spend 7.5 million on it…
that was my argument
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions
By veterans
I mean guys of some value – unfortunately, Grabow was at the low end of that and yet he made a good first impression on Lou.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
actually i'd say
Grabow is the perfect example of not having value
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1848&position=P#value
he’s averaged 0.1 WAR the last 3 seasons
he’s replacement level
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
That's...bad
Yeah, let’s let him sit and see what Russell can do.
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
But we lost two minor league games
to Brewers farmhands. Vitters and Brett Jackson went hitless. The future is lost. Gaaaaah! We will win only 75 games in the pipeline this year, because our bullpen is so terrible.
Sarcasm.
Nashville and Huntsville Ballparks
Greer Stadium in Nashville and Joe Davis Stadium in Huntsville are the two worst minor league ballparks that I have attended that are still being used. The only thing decent at Greer is the guitar-shaped scoreboard.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
Being from Nashville and having spent a good amount of time at Greer
it is a rat trap. Literally. The team sees them in the clubhouse sometimes from what I hear. The stadium is worthy of a A club.
That said, there continues to be a push in Nashville (sidetracked a bit by the economy, but I believe it will get back on track) to build a riverfront stadium downtown ala Memphis that would be a huge upgrade.
Jury is out, but it might get better. Right now though, Greer Stadium is an embarrassment.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
The Sounds were looking to leave
before the economy tanked and no other city was willing to build them a new stadium.
They may be stuck in Nashville for a while, but they’re going to go wherever there’s a good stadium for them.
I never travel far without a little Big Star. R.I.P Alex
by Josh Timmers on Apr 9, 2010 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions
all they have to do is look at the success story in Fort Wayne
the city fathers and the community fought for years and finally, to screams and howls of excess, got that new stadium built and it is changing downtown Fort Wayne to a great degree.
Blue mountains high .. Blue valleys low
I don't know which way we shall go ..
One summer dream .. one summer dream ..
coda
ELO, 1975
Props, Al ...
for not using “All’s Wells that ends well” for today’s headline.
Big win last night. My appreciation of Randy Wells grows each time I watch him. I wish we could transfer some of Wells’ pose to Z.
Oh, and why do you think Nady will start tonight, Al? I mean, it makes sense, but have you heard or read something?
Nady's start tonight...
(Note: Paul Sullivan article, for those who don’t wish to click.)
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
ah, thanks
Hadn’t had a chance to check the dailies this morning.
At Least He'll Be in Left
He won’t throw out anybody at home, but he maybe can throw out a runner going from first to third on a single to left if the runner at first isn’t going on the pitch.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
He'll be in Right.
Because of Cinci’s smaller dimensions and the throws will be shorter according to Lou in Sullivan’s article. Don’t think he wants to sit Sori for two consecutive days.
"Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball." - Jacque Barzun
And even though I consider myself a founding father of the Sit Sori Down club....
…that bandbox the Reds play in is a perfect situation for Soriano to play all three games. Smaller outfield will minimize his defensive limitations, and those long fly balls he hits a lot of have a much greater chance of being home runs at the GABP. Hitting some dingers could very well jump-start one of his patented hot streaks. This would be a perfect example of how to maximize chances for success.
If Colvin plays tonight, it will probably be in center though Lou may not want to start 2 backup OFs in the same game. If that’s the case, I’d expect to see Colvin in center tomorrow to give Byrd a day off, and then in right on Sunday for Dome.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Really kind of bothers me...
that not only is Nady not ready yet, but the Cubs have to telegraph it to the rest of the league by explaining their OF positioning to compensate for his bad arm.
by Jerry Mumphrey on Apr 9, 2010 8:59 AM CDT up reply actions
I'd respectfully disagree........
Nowhere does it say Nady CAN’T make these throws………the Cubs are playing it CONSERVATIVELY with him and trying to minimize the stress on his arm until he’s had a lengthy enough recovery period.
If he couldn’t throw, they wouldn’t be putting him in the OF.
you know, every time someone says this, I harken waaaaaay back to last season
where people were saying “if Soriano was hurt, they wouldn’t be playing him”
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
Go ahead..........
Was it publicly known or did Soriano tell mgmt that he was injured? Nady obviously is coming off of major surgery.
They also could play Nady at first instead of OF if they were really that concerned about his throws. That would be a better signal IMO.
He sure acted hurt. Anyone with eyes could see he was limping and couldn't run.
If he wasn’t hurt than it was pure laziness.
I know he was hurt, most people knew he was hurt
and yet, he continued to play, and there were still people saying “if he was hurt, he wouldn’t be playing”
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
You guys choose to be pessimistic about stuff......
I choose to give Nady the benefit of the doubt……..you can read the article and assume one of 2 things: 1) Nady can throw, they’re just trying to take it easy on him. 2) Nady can’t throw and the Cubs are running him out there anyways. I choose to pick the former-that’s where we differ. End of story.
I think he can throw well enough. If he can't, Colvin should get the start.
Lou did say he would play the hot hand, right?
no, I simply don't take everything at face value
I didn’t say whether Nady could throw or not. I simply find it funny that after Soriano’s situation last season, the EXACT same phrase is being trotted out there like it didn’t exist
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
by Nunyabidness on Apr 9, 2010 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions
Where did......
I, or anyone say “if he was hurt he wouldn’t be playing”
this is from you
“If he couldn’t throw, they wouldn’t be putting him in the OF.”
If you want to play Semantics, that isn’t the EXACT same phrase, but if you’re going to claim that’s not INCREDIBLY similar………….
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
by Nunyabidness on Apr 9, 2010 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions
Oh man, I love Semantics
It’s almost as good as Devil’s Advocate!
www.facebook.com/craighudak
by Craig in South Bend on Apr 9, 2010 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions
::groan::
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
hey it made me laugh
"I mean, if we can’t take Colvin after the spring he’s had, something is wrong," -- Lou
Let me fix that for you...
Theriot can’t [insert baseball skill here] and he gets to play SS….
Let me fix that for you...
[Aaron Miles] can’t [insert baseball skill here] and he gets to play SS [too]….
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions
He is a decent hitting utility IF
I want him on our team. But I think if Starlin is ready its time to make the move.
Theriot needs to start taking grounders at 2B.
I'm not trying to play semantics.........
I think the situations are different. Soriano had a CURRENT injury, apparently, and by playing, was potentially only making it worse.
Nady is coming back from surgery, and while not 100% healthy, is apparently healthy enough to play the OF. I really can’t imagine the Cubs would play him in the OF, let alone not DL him, if he couldn’t throw.
As I read the original article, the Cubs are playing it conservatively with him.
Actually the HAVE admitted he can't throw far to the cut off man
and thus the cut off man has to come out an extra 15-20 feet and this DOES telegraph a player that he should be running on that arm. The arguement of Al and most others who think he should be on the roster now is that the odds of
long throw mattering are offset by his bat. I don’t happen to agree but would be very happy to be proved wrong.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions
what
you think they’re going to deliberately hit the ball to left?
Let them try.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions
No but if anyone does hit a ball to left with a runner on
that runner is going to test his arm.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions
They'll be.........
testing Soriano or Colvin b/c Nady will be in right.
OOPS
That is what I get for “listening” to Drew.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
All good......
Just making sure you knew. Still doesn’t negate your argument that they may try to run on Nady. We’ll see. I’d actually like to see him tested to see if he truly can’t throw or if the Cubs are just being cautious with him.
And let's be honest
We’ll be in a launching pad, anyway. I’m not expecting any 2-0 games at GABP between these two teams. The bottom of the Reds’ rotation seems like it’s hittable, and Harang didn’t look all that sharp on Opening Day (notwithstanding the fact he was facing the big bats of the Cards).
I’m not looking for any pitchers’ duels here. I don’t think the few times that Nady’s arm will need coddling will be deciding factors in any of the games.
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
It doesn't matter what field
they’ll be in… let them try. We’re talking an extra 20 feet for the cutoff man. That’s three strides. Well, four for Fontenot.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions
number of strides doesn't matter.
the extra amount of time it takes for infielder to make a longer throw does.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
well
I guess we’ll see.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions
I love what I've seen from Demp and Wells thus far...
The last two games have been very encouraging and I still feel as good about this club ad I did when they started the season.
Now, the Cubs are headed to Cincinnati, and so am I. Can’t wait to see them live for the first time in 2010!
A-well-a Byrd, Byrd, Byrd, well the Byrd is the word.
by mikegncb34 on Apr 9, 2010 7:58 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Enjoy the game!
I imagine there will be, as usual, many Cubs fans there.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
They will be well received
Just like on Red Reporter. :P
Thanks, Al!
I’m really looking forward to it.
Shouldn’t be as big of a crowd at tonight’s game, but there probably will be on Saturday and Sunday (unfortunately, I’m only able to go to one game this weekend—-tonight).
A-well-a Byrd, Byrd, Byrd, well the Byrd is the word.
I can't help but think...
…we should have won the series. Oh well give credit to Atlanta for winning 2 of 3 at home. After all, that’s what they are supposed to do.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
by cubswynn on Apr 9, 2010 8:01 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Turner Field
can be a tough place to take a series. Personally, I come away pretty impressed with Atlanta. They have some solid pieces in place.
And who knows what they'll get from Hudson.
If he’s the Hudson of old, that might be the best rotation in all of baseball. Sorry White Sox.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
It's Hudson
I always look at him with a bit of cautious pessimism.
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
we were outscored 19-9
we should not have won the series
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions
most of those 19
come from the blowout. Had Grabow not made two mistake pitches, we’d have won Game 2.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions
i understand how the games were played
but run differential matters over longer periods of time
if the Cubs get outscored 19-9 in a series, you shouldn’t expect them to win 2 of 3
you should be happy they got 1
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions
Run differential will give you an idea of how a team performed in the long run
and how other teams performed against them. It’s three games though, which isn’t a “long run.”
www.facebook.com/craighudak
by Craig in South Bend on Apr 9, 2010 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
i know 3 games isnt a long run
but i find it silly to say we SHOULD have won 2 of 3 when we were outscored by 10 runs over 3 games
you’re telling me if i give you a large sample of 3 game series in which one team outscores the other by 10 runs, you think the team that scored 10 less “should” win the majority of the time?
We’d have been EXTREMELY fortunate to win 2 of 3
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Dude...
It’s the first series of the season, and you’re citing the first game of the season in which some of the pitching blew up and a horrible call was made. Please tell me how this matters and why someone can’t look at that second game and say, “We should have won that.” Just because the team fell apart in the first game of the year doesn’t mean they aren’t deserving of a win in subsequent games. Relax.
www.facebook.com/craighudak
by Craig in South Bend on Apr 9, 2010 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
i'm citing basic probabilities
you’re focused on the anecdotal
i think you have this backwards
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions
He was saying that one game doesn't affect another game.
If Grabow gets his pitches down, or if Caridad comes in, there is a chance that game 2 ends up with a different outcome.
3 games into the season is a bit early to make predictions for how the team will be based upon probabilities.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thank you
www.facebook.com/craighudak
by Craig in South Bend on Apr 9, 2010 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions
In May 1979...
… the Cubs played a three-game series with the Phillies at Wrigley.
The combined score was Phillies 37, Cubs 29.
Phillies should have swept, right? No, the Cubs won one of the games 7-1, and lost 13-0 and 23-22.
Run differential means almost nothing for wins & losses over a three-game series.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
ANECDOTAL
are you not understanding?
so just to be clear, you think run differentials over 3 games have no correlation to results? “almost nothing”
really?
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions
So let's see.
…. if there’s a three game series and the scores are:
Team A 1, Team B 0
Team A 0, Team B 15
Team A 1, Team B 0
Run differential 15-2 for team B. They should have swept, right?
Too small a sample size.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
you keep citing anecdotal evidence
and now its moving to just made up evidence
i could counter with
Team A 1000 Team B 0
Team A 2000 Team B 0
Team A 1000 Team B 0
now since Team A outscored them by 4,000 runs you’d expect it to be a sweep right! Well guess what, it was! Just as the numbers would suggest…
its silly
Sure there are going to be instances where run differential doesn’t hold up over small samples (as indicated below in the 1960 WS), but in MOST samples the run differential even in small samples is going to be predictive of the team who won
the reason being there’s an extremely high correlation between scoring more runs and winning
to suggest a team that was outscored by more than 10 runs “Should” have won the series, is just plain silly
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions
If you hadn't watched the games and were looking only at numbers on a page you would be correct.
However, knowing what we know:
1. The Cubs were outscored by a large margin
2. The Cubs lost the series 2-1
3. The Cubs were 2 innings away from winning the series.
We can say with certainty – The Cubs should have won the series if it weren’t for two bad Grabow mistakes. This is true regardless of the ridiculous run differential.
Look.
I know there is a high correlation between scoring more runs and winning. If you think otherwise, you are simply wrong.
As you yourself admit, it can be different with a small sample size. You posted below the results of the first MLB series of 2010. Great — I could cherrypick 15 series and get a different result, couldn’t I? In fact, I could make a pretty good case that having three contrary results out of 15 (20%) is a pretty good argument that run differential and results in a three-game series doesn’t necessarily correlate.
Obviously, over longer periods there is a much stronger correlation.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Agreed, except he really didn't cherrypick - he took ALL the series so far in 2010.
Cherrypicking would be if he only took the 12 that supported his argument.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
My point is...
… that you could pick just about any series during the year — i.e. any three days — and probably find a day or two when the team that gets outscored wins a majority of the series.
It happens. There are teams that get outscored and win divisions (2007 Diamondbacks). There are teams that have winning records when being outscored (2009 Mariners). Happens all the time.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
it happens
but its not likely
since its not likely, making a comment like we “should” have won the series is silly
its like saying the Pirates SHOULD beat the Yankees
they might have a 20-30% chance but that doesn’t mean they should
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Still....
… any time there is a blowout in one game of a three-game series, that has a good chance of skewing the W/L outcome of that series.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
and a lot of times
its a good indication of a team being superior to the other
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Can my wish be next?
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Apr 9, 2010 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions
You said "Granted."
So….
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions
That's the thing -- you'd have to cherry pick
He picked a small sample, but one that was essentially random for these purposes because there’s no point wasting lots of time on this argument.
In one sense the Cubs had a chance to win this series, and one might even say they “should have” done so. Braves fans might disagree — they’d certainly give their team credit for its comeback in the second game and call their team a deserving winner. I’ll accept the idea that the Cubs had a chance to come away with a series win here, if not that they should have won, or that they were unlucky not to win.
But… in 27 innings of baseball the Braves outscored the Cubs by a factor of over 2. By the classic “Pythagorean Theorem” a team outscored by that amount over time will win about 18% of their games. In that sense the Cubs were lucky the Braves’ scoring was so concentrated — by the “Pythagorean Theorem” you’ll be swept 54% of the time when you’re outplayed that badly (that’s just (1-p)^3, which isn’t answering exactly the right question… I don’t actually know a good way to figure out in theory the odds of being swept when you’re outscored 19-9 in a 3-gamer, you’d probably have to look up records). On the other hand, specific game situations caused by the Braves’ scoring distribution influenced the Cubs’ decision to use and stick with certain relief pitchers that gave up lots of runs, and thus probably influenced the overall run differential.
I think you’re both right in different ways.
A couple more things about the run differential
First, the Braves played two fewer innings of offense than the Cubs, which artificially suppresses their run differential edge.
Second, if you drop the first game, over the next 17-1/2 innings the Cubs outscored the Braves 4-3. Pro-rate the Braves’ scoring to account for the lost inning of offense and it’s something like 4-3.18. That’s pretty close. Here it’s more obvious that just using the Pythagorean rates and binomial distributions is wrong — if one team outscores another by one run over two games the only possible outcome is a split.
I could read this all day and still not make sense of any of it.
Though I see where you’re getting at. At the least, I can understand enough of it to see your point.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions
What about over a seven-game World Series?
The 1960 New York Yankees are still grumbling… ;-)
From wikipedia…
The Pirates were grossly outmatched against the Yankees, who had won their tenth pennant in twelve years. Indeed, the Bronx Bombers outscored the Pirates 55–27 in this Series, outhit them 91–60, outbatted them .338 to .256, hit ten home runs to Pittsburgh’s four (three of the latter’s coming in Game 7), got two complete game shutouts from Whitey Ford—and lost.
btw, I think this might have been the only time the World Series MVP (Bobby Richardson) came from the losing team.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Anecdotal vs. Anecdotal
First series around MLB:
NYY 16 BOS 13 – NYY wins 2-1
PHI 24 WAS 11 – PHI wins 2-1
STL 18 CIN 11 – STL wins 2-1
NYM 14 FLA 11 – FLA wins 2-1
PIT 17 LAD 18 – PIT wins 2-1
CHW 12 CLE 10 – CLE wins 2-1
TOR 14 TEX 10 – TOR wins 2-1
MIL 15 COL 14 – MIL wins 2-1
DET 17 KC 10 – DET wins 2-1
ATL 19 CHC 9 – ATL wins 2-1
ARZ 14 SD 12 – ARZ wins 2-1
SF 18 HOU 6 – SF wins 3-0
MIN 22 LAA 12 – MIN wins 3-1
OAK 17 SEA 13 – OAK wins 3-1
TB 12 BAL 11 – TB wins 2-1
Out of 15 series, only 3 times did the team that scored less runs in the series win the series. In those 3 instances the average run differential was 2 runs
The Cubs were outscored by 10
Combined records of teams that outscored their opps by 10 runs or more over a series: 10-3
While run differential may have “less” correlation to win-loss over smaller samples, it still has plenty of correlation. To suggest that it means “almost nothing” is ignorant.
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions
OK, if you want to play semantics, point taken.
But it still doesn’t mean as much than it would over a larger sample size of games.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
as much could be
a correlation of .79 vs. .80
of course it has more correlation over a larger sample size
but its relevant in small sample sizes as well
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions
i find it incredibly ironic
that i’ve been cited in this thread by two different posters as:
1) using anecdotal evidence
2) playing semantics
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions
If I know you DCF....you're ALWAYS up for some antics.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Apr 9, 2010 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions
well played
a wordsmith as well as a picturesmith
picturesmith? yeah i said it.
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions
I like "picturesmith".
See? We CAN agree on something.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
we agree on a lot of things
its just not as exciting on a blog to agree with someone….
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions
see
completely uninteresting
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions
You are so very, very wrong and misguided
Feel better now?
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
I don't say
we should have one 2 of 3 based on the run differential.
I say we should have won 2 of 3 BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED.
This is one of those instances where compiling the statistic masks what actually happened in the games.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
The run differential is a slightly different account of what happened.
After the first game, over 17-1/2 innings of baseball the Cubs outscored the Braves 4-3 — there was no possibility there but a split.
Look, sometimes the bullpen gives up runs. Those runs are just as real as the ones the starters give up. The Cubs gave up 3 and scored 4 overall as a team. The Cubs had a chance to win both games, but I can’t justify the idea that they “should have” won both.
Yep...we easily could have won 2/3...
I gotta tell ya…after the poor start on Opening Day, A LOT of positives came from that series.
A-well-a Byrd, Byrd, Byrd, well the Byrd is the word.
Maybe it WAS me.
Gave up on the crappy Old Style last night. And I went topless…forgot to wear my Cubs hat (it doesn’t seem lucky anymore).
Or it was Hill bringing his magic to the game again. I ♥ him. Oh and I ♥ Colvin today too. Not to mention Byrd. And that defensive play by Kosuke was pretty awesome too.
"Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air."-Pat Hughes
yeah ...
next to Mike Fontenot, I’ve been harsher to Kosuke than any other Cub on the current roster. But Kosuke’s play in right last night does show why his offensive numbers aren’t the whole story in assessing his value.
I would like Cubbie-Tim and Drew to make note of this comment in any future debates we have about our starting rightfielder. I don’t hate on Kosuke for the sake of hating on Kosuke.
Noted-I can be pretty harsh on Kosuke as well.
That play made me do a double take.
"Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air."-Pat Hughes
I don't personally dislike Kosuke ...
I just find him to be very frustrating and, yes, overpaid — though I know the latter is a controversial comment around here.
I nixed "Jump"
after listening the first 2 nights. Good thing nobody here is superstitious.
First game I was able to watch at home this year.
But you’re right, no one here is superstitious. Least of all me.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
dont feel bad
I went to the first 2 games, but couldnt go to the 3rd. Maybe I’ll have to stay away from any more live cubs games this yr. :^(
Just the ones at The Ted
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
How many inches did your nose just grow Al?
Didn’t you forget your sarcasm font regarding your not being superstitious
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 8:29 AM CDT up reply actions
I figured you could see the sarcasm there without the graphic.
But here you go.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
And if you have any extra Old Style laying around
I’ll take it. I went the “beer, but no Cubs gear” route last night. Of course, if my T&A Cafe t-shirt ends up being the magic bullet, I can live with that.
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
My husband just got two cases of Old Style for 1.99 a case!
No kidding there was a $20 rebate going if you bought 2 cases. Couldn’t pass that up. It’s worth it even if you just wash your hair with it.
"Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air."-Pat Hughes
Wait... where?
No, seriously. WHERE?
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
Cardinal wine and liquors in Crystal Lake.
I don’t know if it’s all their stores or just the one in Crystal Lake or if it was a mistake or what. I’d call first.
"Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air."-Pat Hughes
BTW, Wells pitched very efficient
I was concerned in ST but he looks like what I saw last year plus more intelligent
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
well, was he actually efficient?
I’m sorry to quibble here, but I think it’s an important point. Wells doesn’t walk many guys (which I think saves him), but he’s not shutdown dominant, either. He was in trouble for a few innings last night and (to his credit) worked his way out of it each time.
I don't think........
Anyone said he was shutdown dominant. But I’d agree. 12-10 with a 3.05, 104 Ks in 165 innings last year. Opp avg .261. Not shutdown dominant. I think the key stat, though, is that he gave up 14 HRs in 165 innings, which isn’t terrible, but if he can cut those down, just think of how much better he may be this year.
Last night-6 innnings, 1K, 2BB, 0 HR, opponent avg =.273. He did get out of a few minor jams, but credit to him for pitching the GBs when he needed to.
I totally give him that credit.
And gave it to him in my original post.
Sorry — maybe I’m a little over-sensitive after yesterday afternoon.
All good..........
I took no offense to anything you said. Just adding my two cents.
Yeah, I wouldn't say he was all that efficient, but he ended up effective...
97 pitches through 6 innings isn’t incredibly efficient (but it isn’t bad either). Wells had a couple of very efficient innings, but he also had 2 innings in which a huge double play got him out some serious trouble. And there was a runner on third in 3 of his 6 innings. He had to work hard to get out of several innings and probably caught a nice break or two.
It’s semantics really, because I think we all agree that he had a solid outing overall.
Effective But Not Dominating
Hey, he shutout the Braves through 6 innings. I’ll go with it.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
good point
Wells, while effective last night, was not efficient.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Apr 9, 2010 9:12 AM CDT up reply actions
Lou is rearranging the rotation
Not sure this has been mentioned, but Lou announced that the top 3 starters ( Z, Demp, & Wells) will pitch every 5th day
regardless of off days. Thus Z will start Saturday, Gorzo Sunday etc. Silva will have a week off between his first two starts.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
Actually he was going to start the home opener regardless
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions
strange, isn't it?
Two years ago, people were predicting that Dempster would be a disaster in the rotation. Now, he’s arguably our best starter.
Who woulda thunk?
Ted
wants a word with you.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
I love Sir Ted, but...
Two years ago, people were predicting that Dempster would be a disaster in the rotation.
Dempster:
2008: 17-6, 2.96 ERA (5.1 WAR) (Worth: 22.7 M/yr)
2009: 11-9, 3.65 ERA (3.6 WAR) (Worth: 16.4 M/yr)
Lilly:
2008: 17-9, 4.09 ERA (2.7 WAR) (Worth: 12.0 M/yr)
2009: 12-9, 3.10 ERA (3.7 WAR) (Worth: 16.6 M/yr)
Depster has been as good or better than Lilly each of the last two years.
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Apr 9, 2010 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions
technically
Lilly was better than Demp last year by .6 mill. But what a great problem to have… :D
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions
Looks like .2 mil to me.
Hell, you can’t even buy two BMW 7-Series for that! :-)
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Apr 9, 2010 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions
augh
reading fail. My bad. .2 mill.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
well, I said "arguably"
They’ve both been very good.
Glad he's starting at home though
Remember in 2008 he didn’t get a road win til August
I think it was in SF too.
Weird how you remember those things
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
I thought that was the 2008 Cubs as a whole
They didn’t get above .500 on the road until that Marlins series.
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
So Gorz
is the 5, getting mor regular reps than the 4 (Silva). OK.
Huh?
Gorzelanny will also have at least a week between starts.
Mon. Dempster
Wed. Wells
Thur. Zambrano
Fri. Silva
Sat. Dempster
Gorz may not start again until NY
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
Take it up with Wittenmeyer
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/2148971,CST-SPT-cubnt09.article
Perhaps he knows something we don’t or perhaps he can’t count.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions
My response was to timh815
Wittenmeyer didn’t say Gorz would be getting more regular reps than Silva.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
72-90.
That’s my prediction, made back in late February. I would have stuck with it had the Cubs taken two of three from the Braves.
We have to demand more!
by copingwiththecubs on Apr 9, 2010 8:17 AM CDT reply actions
?????
Am I reading that right? You think the Cubs will lose 90 games and you would still think that if the Cubs had won two out of 3. So what exactly, having lost two out of 3 you are even more sure?
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 8:20 AM CDT up reply actions
I'll make a bet with you then.
For every game under 72-90 the Cubs are, I’ll donate $25 to charity – for every game above 72-90 the Cubs are, you only have to donate $10.
You pick the Charity, and yes, I’m completely serious.
Like it, a man/woman putting their money where their mouth is.
They gone have to stop sleeping on me one day.. I gotta be one of the best
About 3 hours ago by Eric Wright Cleveland Browns – Cornerback
When I checked this morning, I was still a man.
Will update later?? But honestly, I don’t believe people actually think that. Even giving those odds, I be there won’t be a single person willing to take that bet.
not really that great odds
since he never said they would finish lower than that. Looks to me like you risked absolutely nothing, unless they were even worse than he thinks they’ll be. So why would he ever take that bet?
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions
what???
since he never said they would finish [higher] than that. Looks to me like you risked [150% more $ per win over 70]. Unless they were even [better] than he thinks they’ll be.
See… it works exactly the same as if I said, "youre an idiot, I bet they only with 50 games!!!
I am offering $5 to every $2 he would have to donate. If he is predicting 70 wins, they are just as likely in his mind to win 69 as they are to win 71. Just as likely to win only 68 as they are to win 72…. see what I’m getting at?
::crickets::
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 9:42 AM CDT up reply actions
Not really.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions
I'll take that bet too.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions
did he actually get himself banned again?
or is he just on a mambo chicken sabbatical?
"...the internet is not something you just dump something on. It's not a truck. It's a series of tubes." - Sen. Ted Stevens
I think......
he got banned. Don’t know if Al will disclose or not. Al?
When you said that...
…I realized that I hadn’t seen him in a while, though I only read a couple of threads per week so I didn’t know if he was gone-gone or if that was just a coincidence.
"...the internet is not something you just dump something on. It's not a truck. It's a series of tubes." - Sen. Ted Stevens
Al said
he took care of it after the latest homophobia.
Of course, it’s entirely possible BLou went out and picked himself a new username. I’m thinking it might be something like “FireHendry10” or “SSSucks!”
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Fair enough...
There’s generally a precipitous (and sometimes entertaining) blow up preceding one of his bannings, but I was not aware of anything particular this time.
"...the internet is not something you just dump something on. It's not a truck. It's a series of tubes." - Sen. Ted Stevens
Me either,
I don’t know what he did that was bad. When his time as MDBNIU ended, it was after a rant in which he said “F*** you mambochicken” to several posters.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions
A copy of BLou's book
"...the internet is not something you just dump something on. It's not a truck. It's a series of tubes." - Sen. Ted Stevens
I thought that "why do you hate the cubs" thread went by too quietly.
Banned right as games get underway. Damn shame.
Well, Mr. BLou, wherever you may be… godspeed, sir. And i’m sure we will mambo again soon.
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
he got banned?!?!?!?!
my fanbase is now back to zero
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions
ill be your fan if you give me stuff
"The roar from the crowd really fired me up," Burish said. "In warmups there were a lot of signs. One said 'Burish, my grandma is pregnant.' I don't know what that means. I skated by it and said, 'it's not mine.' "
by jesus christos on Apr 10, 2010 12:09 AM CDT up reply actions
Okay, I'll do it!
The charity? American Civil Liberties Union. I really, really, really don’t want the Cubs to lose 90 but if they do, I want some good to come out of it. Al, don’t bust me for introducing politics into the thread; the man gave me my choice of charities. Anyway, I was gonna shoot the ACLU a hondo even if the Cubs win the division. bdlugz, if you hate the ACLU, maybe we can come up with another choice.
We have to demand more!
by copingwiththecubs on Apr 9, 2010 10:12 PM CDT up reply actions
OMT: Hit me on my email to e-shake on this...
… I’m super busy right now so I might not make it back to this thread.
We have to demand more!
by copingwiththecubs on Apr 9, 2010 10:17 PM CDT up reply actions
If you want to "cope" with something...
Start an addiction.
If you want to be a cubs fan, “cheer” for the cubs, lol
by bilbosbuttons on Apr 9, 2010 9:29 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
We won a game!
You can crown them now! The way they played last night that’s how they’ll play all season. World Series champs, might as well not finish the rest of the season!
This is the anti-ledge jumper post.
I wonder if they see how silly that sort of thing is to say this early?
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
It wasn't really.
I’m saying it’s silly for the ledge jumpers to say the season’s over, just like it would be silly to say the Cubs are destined to be WS champs. Get it?
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
Thank you for clarifying what would have been a terribly confusing conversation
between two people without coffee.
This conversation better get back to
how the cubs are already the champs and Selig is going to cancel the rest of the season and give them the trophy.
It's a nit but for the sake of consistency, I gotta ask...
I thought the Braves might have enough to challenge the Phillies for the NL East title, or at least contend for the wild card, before the season started. Turns out that’s an accurate assessment.
After just three games, how can you make an accurate assessment of anything? If that’s the case, then shouldn’t we be able to make accurate assessments of the Cubs bullpen, our “ace”, and many other things that resulted in losing the first two games?
Again, for consistency’s sake, I just don’t see how you can make assessments on some things but not others.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Apr 9, 2010 8:33 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
good point
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is." -- Yogi Berra
Agreed.
Three games out of 162 is too early to make any kind of judgment IMO.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions
he's not
he made the assessment before the season started, and he thinks these games support his assessment.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions
How is that different than the bullpen point?
If you thought the bullpen stunk and would be a problem before the season, then doesn’t these three games support that assumption just as much as an assumption that the Braves are going to contend?
If you’re going to say it’s too early to assess one thing, then you need to say it’s too early to assess anything.
no
because the bullpen performed pretty well, aside for two guys.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions
You're missing the forest for the trees...
If it’s too early to make any assumptions about one thing, it is too early to make assumptions about ANYthing. That’s true whether you see stuff that agrees with what you already thought or whether you see stuff that disagrees with what you thought. Logically, there is no distinction to be made.
People make this mistake all the time. When a small sample size agrees with their theory, they confirm their theory. When it doesn’t agree, they dismiss the information as too small a sample to make assessments.
I hope Silva gives us 9IP 0ER.
I’d be really happy with that.
I don’t think it’ll happen, but I’d be really happy with it.
I spent 90% of my money on women and drink. The rest I wasted - George Best
Realistic Expectation
He would have an ERA of 5.40 doing that. That ERA would be a huge improvement over last season.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
but would still be freaking awful
seriously? This has what it comes down to? Hoping the guy posts a really crappy ERA, but is better than an absolutely horrendous one?
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
What's your point?
I would take a crappy ERA over the horrendous one….especially when talking about Silva.
My point is, I'd rather not have that crappy an ERA on the mound every fifth day
We are not the Kansas City Royals. The team shouldn’t have to settle for god awful
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
If if's and but's were candy and nuts, it'd be Christmas all year round.
The only reason he is on the team is because they had to move MB, not because they actively pursued him.
He’s on the team, he is going to pitch, so why not get behind him and see what he can do?
Okay first, I understand why they acquired him
secondly I’m as behind him as I can be, I hope he pitches well. However, I will not celebrate a guy going out there every fifth day posting a 5.40 ERA. if he’s doing that, and the team continues the claim that we’re attempting to compete, then something isn’t adding up.
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
The Yankees...
…had Joba posting a 4.75 ERA last year as their 4th starter. How did that work out of them?
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
dude
are you really claiming this team has the same level of talent as the Yankees?
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
by Nunyabidness on Apr 9, 2010 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions
My point is...
…a 5th starter isn’t suppose to be great. A 5th starter needs to eat up a bunch of innings and get 10-12 wins a year. To say that a 5th starter with a 5.40ERA means the team isn’t “attempting to compete” is just silly.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
And I'm saying that if Silva is posting a 5.40 ERA
he isn’t going to be eating up innings OR winning 10-12 games. We don’t have the offense that the Yankees did to bail out Joba’s 4.75 ERA. Which by the way is better than if Silva was posting a 5.40.
Hell, there were many on here who thought Marquis blew monkey chunks, his ERA was still well under 5.40
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
by Nunyabidness on Apr 9, 2010 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions
It is better.
Again you’re failing to understand that was their 4th starter, not their 5th.
And it certainly is possible for Silva to eat innings, post 10-12 wins, and have a 5.40ERA. He’s going to have some good games and he’s going to have some really bad games.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
His ERA is 0 right now.
Let’s give him a chance before crucifying him.
IF he has a 5.40 ERA in two months, they can deal with it then. I’ll never understand your pessimistic attitude toward everything.
I'm not crucifying ANYONE
I simply don’t think Silva posting a 5.40 ERA this season would be a good thing.
I didn’t say that was what he was going to do. That’s not pessimism.
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
by Nunyabidness on Apr 9, 2010 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions
It's Silva
Of course, I would like the ERA to be more in the range of 4.40 than 5.40. I don’t believe the Cubs can expect Silva to have a decent ERA. Maybe, he’ll pleasantly surprise us. I thought putting Dempster into the starting rotation before 2008 was a mistake. That has turned out well for the Cubs.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
Agreed
I want to be optimistic, but within a range that is realistically possible.
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is." -- Yogi Berra
by vonde6 on Apr 9, 2010 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
that's what I want to be too! rec'd
"Well-behaved women seldom make History"---Laurel Thatcher Ulrich
by cooliogirl47 on Apr 9, 2010 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions
I want to be an astronaut!
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Apr 9, 2010 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions
good?
eh. It would probably be acceptable. Everyone would like better.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Time for winning.
Look at the rest of the April schedule. Is there a series left where the Cubs shouldn’t be favored to win 2 of 3? Maybe at New York or at Milwaukee?
Either way, we’ll know plenty about this team by the end of the month.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
agreed
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Saw that too. Great tag line.
"All of us are in the gutter...some of us are looking at the stars." Oscar Wilde
Milwaukee.........
Depends on if Fielder and Braun show up. Their pitching isn’t great, but those guys scare me a bit……..
I think the Cubs pitching can tame those guys.
They’ve done it in the past. The bigger question for me is if the offense shows up. Though Atlanta’s pitching staff isn’t the easiest opponent to see once the lights turn on.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
I'm much more comfortable with the Cubs O
against Milwaukee’s pitching than the top 3 starters for Atl.
Agreed.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
Marmol Pitch Selection
John Smoltz on the Peachtree broadcast reiterated what I’ve been thinking the last couple of years…Marmol needs to throw more fastballs. It’s not like his tops out at 90 or something. It has good zip,can allow him to get ahead, and will make his devastating slider that much better.
Scott Bora$ is satan.
by Canadian Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 8:41 AM CDT reply actions
Mike Krukow, ex-Cub and current color guy for the Giants
has said the same thing. His favorite pitch is his slider, but his best pitch is his fastball.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Apr 9, 2010 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions
I honestly hope this is Larry's last year with the Cubs.
It certainly seems that the Cubs have had a number of high ceiling pitchers under him…….and most have under performed. I think it’s time for a change.
To be fair
if you are blaming him for a pitcher like Zambrano not reaching full potential, he should get credit for Randy Wells outperforming expectations. I’m not sure what other high ceiling pitchers you are thinking about.
My take is that he isn’t the top pitching coach but is probably interchangable with many others. I wouldn’t mind a change though either.
Fair enough.
Z is certainly at the top of the under performing list. I won’t include Wood b/c of his injuries.
I should have clarified that I don’t think he is the worst PC in the league, rather I just think it is time for a change.
I'm a big Rothschild critic
But in fairness. Under his watch Dempster made a huge comeback both in the pen and as a starter. Lilly “blossomed” from a supposedly fly ball pitcher to down right nasty. Wells has performed way beyond expectations. Marmol is potentially a dominant closer. Let’s see if Silva can continue what he started in Spring training. If he has turned that tanker around you have to give him some props.
"All of us are in the gutter...some of us are looking at the stars." Oscar Wilde
Definitely give him credit for Demp and Lilly.
It may be too early to tell on Marmol. But as discussed above, everyone else seems to think he needs to throw more fastballs – let’s see if Larry feels the same way, or let’s him live and die with the slider.
Agree with what you said.....
However, Z has been going down. He is possibly just uncoachable.
Prior was on his watch as well. That went down the toilet.
I wonder how much Lou and Dusty have given Larry to operate over the years.
Absolutely agree
I used to call Larry “The Butcher” for what I perceived to be his abuse of Prior and Wood. Over the years though I’ve shifted the blame to Dusty. I know that can be a controversial topic here but I never tire of bashing Dusty.
"All of us are in the gutter...some of us are looking at the stars." Oscar Wilde
Let's sweep his Reds over the next three days!
Who’s with me?
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions
I want to beat the Reds just to piss him off
I hope Theriot goes 10-14 in the series just to remind the fool about how he played Perez over him when Theriot was hitting .320
I am hesitant to blame him for Prior and Wood - just because of the injuries.
But Wood never won more than, what,14 games?
How about you refrain.........
from the derogatory label?
Watch your attitude and language, or you will be asked to leave.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
You know-at first your comment offended me because my brother is gay.
But then I thought about how stupid he can sometimes be and just shrugged it off. :)
"Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air."-Pat Hughes
No, it has nothing to do with being PC
it has to do with being a decent human being and respecting others that may be different from you.
Marmol had lots of trouble with fastball command last year.
I don’t have good numbers on this, but he seemed to miss a lot with the fastball and use the slider to get called strikes. Len+Bob mentioned this in a couple outings, so it’s not just me.
It might be that his fastball has so much movement that it’s hard to control.
To my untrained eye
it would appear that his motion is difficult to repeat consistently, which would lead to his wildness. It may also be why his slider moves in so many different ways. His fastball control was a little better last night than I remember it being last year
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living." -- Alvin Dark
My question about Marmol
is his focus. Last year and last night, I keep getting the impression that he doesn’t buckle down and focus until he is in a 2-0 count or if he has some extra motivation (e.g. wanting to make Heyward look silly). I hope I’m wrong though because when he is focused he is entirely unhittable
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living." -- Alvin Dark
I suppose that I'm thinking out loud
more than anything, but I’m really perplexed with how speaking of the deficits of a team correlates to ledge jumping. I just don’t get it.
It’s not the losses, Al. It’s the manner in which they occurred. A bad bullpen took a pair of competitive games, and turned them into losses. This is a terrible trouble area that not only did the Cubs try to address virtually all offseason, but are admittedly still looking at potential changes to. Yet somehow for fans to acknowledge the elephant in the room means they’re in a panic. What gives?
by Damen Jackson on Apr 9, 2010 8:46 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
The difference is this:
The people who are speaking of the deficits pick out specific moments that frustrate them… this is not the issue. The ledge jumpers are claiming the season is over and that we may as well hibernate until 2011.
There is a big difference.
I think you're confusing a lapse with a deficit
Lapse being a occasional, specific instance of failure. A deficit is more long-standing and permanent, and if big enough, will derail a season.
I can’t argue with people who have derided this bullpen all offs-eason, then watched it tank the first two games of the season. it’s a fair debate, in my opinion.
by Damen Jackson on Apr 9, 2010 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions
Can't judge a bullpens season on 3 games.
I agree that it doesnt look promising, but what if they come out and pull off a 3.05 ERA over the next 30 days with only 2 losses?
Let’s at least get a decent sample size.
Fair enough...
I can appreciate your position. You remember though that most of its member have an actual pro resume, yes? Which in many cases, is average at best.
by Damen Jackson on Apr 9, 2010 9:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Im not saying I'm jumping for joy looking at our pen
But i’m not going to make assumptions for the next 159 games based on 3 played so far.
We agree for the most part… I just prefer larger sample sizes.
And........
It’s not fair to judge the “bullpen” based on Shark and Grabow’s terrible showings. Marshall, Marmol, Russell and Caridad all pitched well. Don’t broadbush the bullpen.
What is scary is that they are supposed to be the experienced guys along with Marmol.
You forgot Berg pitched like crap as well.
Russell has had exactly one outing. and Marmol walked a guy and gave up a hit
in the ninth. He wasn’t exactly lights out
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
I didn't claim he was lights out......
I said he had a good outing. Good outing = no runs and a save. Marshall, Marmol, Russell, and Caridad have combined to pitch 9 innings of shut out ball. Grabow, Berg and Shark have given up 8 ER in 2 2/3. So, not fair to broadbrush the bullpen based on 3 guys who have only pitched 1/4 of the total bullpen innings.
seriously?
closers aren’t perfect. Wow. Marmol’s slider was ON, and he was throwing fastballs at 96 mph.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions
And I promise not to trot it out too often...
…but I spent most of the offseason singing the praises of Valverde and imploring the Cubs should sign him. So I definitely reserve my right to deride the bullpen throughout the season.
It’s not that Marmol can’t close – he can and he can do it well. But moving him from the valuable set-up role without ensuring a viable replacement is a gamble.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
in the beginning of the offseason -sure. He was asking for $10-12M per
but not towards the end. He ended up signing for $14M for 2 years ($7M per) with a club option 3rd year for $9M. Cubs could have done that and figured out another solution to the outfield. Plenty of cheaper options than Byrd were available.
I understand Cubs were on limited funds and they had several areas to address. I just think the bullpen should have been a higher priority than outfield.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Byrd was signed...........
well in advance of Valverde dropping his pricetag.
This kind of thing has happened a couple times recently.
Hendry doesn’t seem to like bargain shopping near the end of the offseason. Throwing out how badly the MB signing turned out, Hendry gave more years and more money (IIRC) than any other GM that offseason who signed a corner OF. Dunn got fewer years, Abreu got far less money …
I see your point......
But I have this feeling that if Jim had waited, people would criticize him for the moves he didn’t make soon enough. Bradley turned out to be a bust-he hit well under his career avgs. Abreu surprised everyone. Dunn, while great offensively, is atrocious in the field. We needed a player like Milton (high OBP) more so than Dunn (power hitter).
I think MB being a switch-hitter and OF mobility & glove
would have been bigger factors than OBP if the decision came down to him or Dunn.
MB – 10 yrs – career OBP .371
Dunn – 9 yrs – career OBP .384
Big Donkey strikes out a lot but he sure knows how to take a walk – 7 seasons with 100+ BBs.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Good point.........
My perception of Big Donkey was the Ks and power-not the OBP.
that includes
IBBs, right? I wonder how many he has…
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions
I would presume it does
Got those numbers from baseball-reference.com. When I go back and click on the more stats section, it adds a few more columns one of which is IBB.
Over his first 9 seasons, he has 97, so almost 11 a season. Already has one this season.
Sounds like a lot, right? Well, it is but just to put it in perspective, Barry Bonds had 688 IBBs over his 22 year career, including an ungodly 120 in 2004. 120! That’s more IBBs than what would be a great number of just regular BBs. Unreal…
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
That's actually a really good question.
It’s interesting because on average IBBs are of no value to the offense, and they are counted as BB/PA. Subtracting IBBs from Dunn’s OBP gives .372. Doing the same for Bradley gives .363.
Caridad is the new Marmol, IMO.
He’s got the electric stuff of Marmol, and can fill that role, in the 8th (I hope). Other parts of the bullpen (a certain overrated receiver from Notre Dame, for instance), I can do without.
But I think Caridad and Grabow will work, and if Sean Marshall continues to pitch like Mike Marshall, then the bullpen has a chance.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
Oh boy...
I feel like I’m looking at Jose Ascanio again, man. I really need to see what he does in competitive situations, in games that count before I’ll speak kindly of him.
by Damen Jackson on Apr 9, 2010 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions
The last two nights, Caridad has looked solid.
Granted, the sample size is small, but I think he has the stuff to do the job. 2 K’s in 1.1 innings is small, but it’s nice to see someone in the pen missing bats.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
re: Marshall
from your post to Lou’s eyes. If only he’d let Sean pitch the # of innings Mike pitched, we’d be much better off.
ok, maybe not quite as many as Mike seeing as how he was a freak of nature for awhile there. But certainly more than what we’ve seen to date.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Well, he was a LTIGY
on Monday… which is it?!!?
Unfortunately, I can't see a manager doing that again.
Lou doesn’t even use a long man for crying out loud.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
The difference is that Caridad
has control. And Lou will like that.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
Couldn't agree more
There were plenty of bullpen options out there and the Cubs came away with none of them. Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Billy Wagner and Jose Valverde all changed teams this offseason… that’s just for starters. The Cubs didn’t even try to improve the bullpen this year other than deleting Heilman and Gregg.
The Cubs could have saved themselves $15 million by just going with Sam Fuld and Tyler Colvin in centerfield. That’s independent of whether Marlon Byrd produces or not. That $15 million easily can go to Jose Valverde or Mike Gonzalez.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions
Throwing money at free agents is rarely the answer.
Valverde would have cost more than $15 million. Gonzalez is hardly a “proven” closer.
The bullpen will be better than last year. Granted, it could hardly have been worse.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
it's better...
than doing nothing. The Cubs didn’t need a proven closer. I’m confident Marmol can do the job. They needed somebody though. They got nobody. Not really that hard of an analysis to understand. Same with last year when there were four LHPs available… Cubs got none of them and they rewarded their fans with an atrocious bullpen…. or did you forget?
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Would you rather they signed guys like Heilman and Gregg?
I’m satisfied with the young arms they have.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
no...
they certainly were not. Not for a competent GM.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions
or...
even a non-competent GM like they have in Baltimore. What does that make ours?
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions
the guy
who built the 2003, 2007, 2008 teams.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't bother.......
Drew-it’s not worth it-I should know-I’ve got 200 of the 400+ comments here in response to this circular, goal post moving Cub Fan.
Please, no.
I couldn’t forgive Gregg after what happened in San Diego last August.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions
My feelings exactly!
"All of us are in the gutter...some of us are looking at the stars." Oscar Wilde
they did!
his name is John Grabow
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions
btw...
really funny… “Throwing money at free agents is rarely the answer.” Which is what I keep saying about Marlon Byrd.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Byrd is hitting .182
his two homeruns have been nice, but I fear he’s taking an all or nothing approach at the plate
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
by Nunyabidness on Apr 9, 2010 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions
For a team that has scored 9 runs so far
He has 2 HR, 2 runs scored and 4 RBI.
I would leave him alone
it doesn't prove i'm wrong
he has two hits and two home runs. Neither of which made the difference in a win or a loss. Tuffy Rhodes would be winning MVPs right now if all that mattered is what you did in the opening series.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes, because having a 2 run cushion instead of 1 run
means nothing to the relievers going out there last night. Have you ever played baseball???
his hr last night gave us a cushion
His 3 run jack in game one gave us a lead that Z and shark couldn’t handle.
Colvins HR was the only other hit that mattered last night.
I think it being a 2 run lead rather than a 1 run lead made a big difference last night.
which is no different...
than the entire team at this point.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions
yes...
after three games he’s an all star… but that’s hardly my point. Sam Fuld does things this team sorely needs. Marlon Byrd has no track record of success outside of the Ballpark of Arlington and is getting paid like he does. Sam Fuld and Tyler Colvin cost the team nothing.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions
Nobody called him an allstar....
Give it a rest.
no you just said he was wrong
which isn’t remotely provable at this point
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
by Nunyabidness on Apr 9, 2010 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Byrd...
is just another guy. He hits homers, the Cubs still lose. They don’t have enough guys who get on base and play great defense enough to stop the bottom half of the first in the opener from happening. I’m not saying Fuld was a lock, but I would have taken my chances. Whether Byrd does or doesn’t earn his $15 million, the Cubs had other needs and didn’t address them and could have with that $15 million.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions
So Mr Fantasy GM.......
what would YOU have done with the $5M/year that they spent on Byrd? What would be different about this year in terms of the outcome? And does it really matter yet? WE’RE 3 GAMES INTO THE SEASON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
since you asked...
put colvin and Fuld in CF and signed Mike Gonzalez or found a way to pry Rafael Soriano from Atlanta… since they gave him to Tampa Bay for nothing but salary relief. I certainly wouldn’t have bid against myself to give a mediocre ball player a 3-year deal. They paid for a flashy HR total in a hitter’s park… when the guy barely had a league-average OPS. I’m on record with this all winter long. You’re using three games to make your point. That’s called fantasy GM-ing.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions
not like Arlington it isn't.
even in an extreme hitter’s park, he only put up a league-average OPS. 20 HRs look great… they don’t tell the whole story.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions
Wait a sec
I understand your point on Byrd but there is no way that anyone prior to this spring training would have ever mentioned Colvin as a starting player. Last season the question was whether he was a bust.
absolutely...
i wouldn’t have wanted to depend on him either. It was Reed Johnson being mentioned, and I would have been plenty ok with that platoon. But Colvin is another example of free talent.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions
late chiming in here but feel obligated to answer...
…seeing as how I started this sub-thread.
Agreed that Colvin wouldn’t have been on my radar this offseason. I would have spent the Byrd FA money on a closer like Valverde and gone with Reed/Fuld platoon in CF. Bargain-shop at end of off-season and during ST to see if I could improve that, but would have been fine with Reed/Fuld in CF to start the season and as it turned out, Colvin to back up the corners.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I see.........
Mr. Crockett never mentioned Valverde until I ripped his Soriano/Gonzalez choices.
I would’ve liked Valverde too, but point is, we could’ve never gotten Valverde for Byrd’s pricetag (in terms of $/year). Valverde didn’t significantly drop his price tag until well into the FA period.
I don’t think we could’ve counted on Reed to stay healthy. Not sure if he would’ve stayed around after we non tendered him either. Reed would’ve cost what Byrd does this year-$3M.
Colvin and Fuld can't play CF at the same time.
Gonzalez is not that great-he hasn’t lit the world on fire the last 2 years. 24 saves in 33 opps isn’t any better than Marmol can do, and you’re wasting money to get NO improvement.
Soriano is a maybe, but I don’t see an overwhelming argument that having Soriano over Marmol is any better than having Byrd over Fuld.
are you kidding?
This isn’t an either or thing… we would have had both Soriano (or Gonzalez) AND Marmol. And this team needs both. It doesn’t need a .250 OBP centerfielder who plays mediocre defense.
Just so you’re clear… Gonzalez wouldn’t have been the team’s closer. He’s left-handed. More than a LOOGY, less than a closer. Got it?
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions
My point is........
Either way, you’d be spending money on SOMEBODY to take another person’s position on the team. So therefore, I cannot say that the money spent on Soriano to take over the closer role from Marmol is better spent than spending money on Byrd to take over CF from Fuld. GOT IT?
And you never stated where you would play Gonzalez…….so quit being a smartass. And now that you’ve mentioned him as a LOOGY-you’ve weakened your argument, b/c I would not spend money on Gonzalez as a LOOGY when we have Marshall.
Thanks for continuing to prove that you wouldn’t spend money any better than you crucify Hendry for.
Gonzalez...
isn’t a loogy… what part of more than a loogy did you not get? Marshall similarly is not a loogy.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions
Anyone who is left-handed is a LOOGY to Lou.
If you think he cant view Marshall as anything but a LOOGY, what makes you think he’d see ANYONE else differently?
His name...
was Norm Charlton. He hasn’t had a lefty worth more than a loogy since he’s been here… and his GM has done nothing to get him one. I would be fine with the team having a loogy or two… but point is Gonzalez would be more than just that.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions
I have no idea what you're getting at with the Norm Charlton crap.
But way to totally ignore my point that Lou tends to use every lefty he has as a LOOGY, even ones as capable as Marshall.
my point...
is when he had Norm Charlton as his closer in Cincinnati and in Seattle, he knew what to do with him. He didn’t use him as just a loogy. Not really suprised you don’t know that.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions
Actually I'm shocked you think Marshall is only a LOOGY
That’s just plain wrong.
Nice comeback........
I misread. My point still remains that Marshall and Gonzalez are the SAME PLAYER and therefore, all your arguments about WHO you’d spend money on are NO BETTER than how Jim spent money. Glad you’re not the GM.
you've done nothing...
to show that he made a smart choice in signing Marlon Byrd to an over-market contract based off one season in a hitter’s ball park. Two hits in three games, homers or not, don’t prove otherwise.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't have to.........
Since you were critical of Byrd, I asked you how you would’ve spent the money. And your choices are no better in terms of value or difference than those made by Jim. Therefore, I don’t have to do anything. You have FAILED to provide better choices that Jim could’ve made to improve this team in other ways.
And I won’t listen to any other recs you will make, because you made your recs, and now, you can’t move the goalposts. You continuously prove that you don’t know what you’re talking about, and when someone proves it, you move the goalposts.
Thanks for playing.
I completely disagree with you
Not only are my choices a better chance to provide the team with more production in areas the team needs it (speed, one-base and defense), they’re cheaper too. I have statistics that back me up… years of them. You’re going off of two hits in three games. Good luck with that.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions
You're trying to debate that Fuld is a good major league player based on 124 ABs!
And you’re claiming small sample size with Byrd?? take you own advice.
And DONT come back with how fuld hit .280/.350/.400 in AAA, because honestly, minor league stats mean jack until they post those numbers for an extended time in the majors. 124 ABs does not mean anything
Byrd
hasn’t hit jack in the majors. What do you have to say about that? That’s not small sample size. That’s 3000 PAs.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions
.279/.340 /.423/.763
isn’t “jack”, especially for CF.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Drew......
are you defending Byrd or saying he sucks?
I don’t think those are terrible numbers.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions
LOL........
How was $6.35M for Soriano going to improve over Marmol? How was spending $3.45 million on Gonzalez any better than using Marshall?
Last time I checked, Soriano and Gonzalez won’t improve defense, OBP or speed. And show me the “years of stats” that prove that Fuld and/or Colvin are a better choice than Byrd.
YOU HAVE DONE NOTHING TO PROVE YOUR POINT other than throw out your opinion, which means nothing to me. And even less the deeper you get.
My god...
can you read? When did I say Soriano or Gonzalez or Valverde has to improve over Marmol? They would be in addition to Marmol. I’ve said this plenty of times. Caridad and Grabow too.
I’ll show you years of stats that show you guys like Marlon Byrd are a dime a dozen. 99 OPS+ over 3000 PAs. That’s not a small sample size, if you know what that is.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions
Do you know what you wrote?
I asked you who you would sign that would improve this team. Soriano would take the role that Marmol has (yes, we would still have Marmol-duh). Gonzalez would take the role that Marshall has (yes we would still have Marmol). I don’t see how that would improve the team, as we have those types of players already. And, Soriano cost more than Byrd, so you lose there. In fact, Byrds salary this year is 1/2 M less than Gonzalez.
You can choose to look at Byrd’s career stats, or you can chose to look at his last 3 years under Jaramillo, which are marketedly better.
And yeah, let’s see guys who at the MAJOR LEAGUE LEVEL compare to Byrd and what they cost a team.
sorry to break it to you...
but average value of a contract is all that matters. All backloading the contract did is make it harder to move Byrd when he fails.
Signing Gonzalez, Soriano, Valverde, etc… would improve the team. You need 7 relievers to fill a staff (6 really, but that’s a different argument altogether). This team will be lucky to have 3 or 4 quality arms. When the team had Wood and Marmol, they made the playoffs. Just Marmol (which is hardly a sure thing if you remember from how last year started)… not so much.
Look at what Byrd did on the road his last three years. Those numbers should tell you all you need to know about how mediocre AT BEST he is.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions
There is a difference between backloading it
And increasing slightly year over year to account for the changing value of the contract.
Byrds deal is hardly backloaded
huh?
he makes $3 million this year. Then it jumps to $5.5 and then $6.5 million. That’s called backloading.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions
I was referring from the 5.5M to the 6.5M
It had to be slightly backloaded to account for the fact that the Cubs had no money to work with this year.
Sure........
The fact that they just had Marmol had nothing to do with them not making the playoffs……….PLEASE.
You failed to answer my question.
2009:
H: .282/.336/.528
A: .285/.322/.419
2008:
H: .299/.398/.512
A: .297/.362/.411
His stats are pretty similar, with the exception of SLG. However, keep in mind that his SLG is off the charts away from home today, albeit only 3 games. And, Turner is no easy park to hit in at night.
So like I said awhile ago: 3 GAMES. We’ll see if Byrd was worth it. I’m betting he will be.
And you still haven’t answered my question nor proven how Soriano or Gonzalez would markedly improve this team.
I shouldn't have to, but I will anyway...
Gonzalez, Soriano, et al. > Justin Berg. Simple enough for you?
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions
Way to cherry pick......
especially given that Berg has pitched 1 game.
Gray and Stevens.......
Could be here instead of Shark and Berg, and that would cost nothing.
ok...
how about Russell or Caridad or hell even Grabow. I could care less… Gonzalez, Soriano and Valverde are better than every reliever not named Marmol… and that’s only when he’s not the inconsistent Marmol from the start of last year.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions
Show me proof...........
Other than your opinion. Russell and Caridad have had good outings so far.
so what?
it’s a couple of appearances. Papelbon blew a save already… would you not make a trade of one of those guys for him, right now? It’s not opinion. Gonzalez, Soriano and Valverde have major-league arms and major-league careers. They’ve performed well everywhere they’ve gone. They ARE an improvement over Marmol, unless Marmol is pitching like an all-star… and they’re an improvement over anybody they’ve had in the bullpen over the last two years
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions
And they cost more money.......
than any of the guys we have in our pen, which is your exact argument of why you don’t want Byrd and you want Fuld. You can’t argue it both ways! Nice try!
really?
you really believe a 120 OPS drop is insignificant?
As long as you’re happy with him putting up a 740 OPS, then we don’t have to talk about this anymore.
Of course, you conveniently left out 2007 where had a 715 OPS away from Texas. Nice try though
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions
I acknowledged that......
by referencing SLG, which made up 100 of the 120. Give it a rest-you’re arguing for the sake of arguing.
And I don’t need to show you that I’m satisfied with Byrd. The question remains how the Cubs could have improved themselves, which I asked you, but you failed to provide any good examples.
go ahead and say what you expect from Marlon Byrd
what’s the number? 850 OPS? 800? 750? I’m on record without seeing him hit two homers in three games that he’ll be lucky to have an OPS north of 750. I hope I’m wrong and Hendry stumbled into another Mark DeRosa… but I haven’t seen a damn thing out of him, or you to show otherwise.
The difference is you’re just throwing around anecdotes and hope (where were you before he hit two homers?)… will you be happy if he only puts up what he’s put up on the road while he’s played in Texas?
You’re not showing you know the value of OBP either. 30 pts of OBP is huge. It’s an enormous difference over 400+ PAs. And last year when his was already down to .336 (IN TEXAS!!!), it’s hard to drop further than that if you’re really trying.
The Cubs overpaid for a Texas-inflated stat line. Period.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Keep moving the goalposts.....
I asked you WHO you would spend money on that would improve this team, and you have FAILED repeatedly to do so. You keep moving the goalposts and refuse to answer the question-you keep taking it back to Byrd. I said nothing about Byrd other than you are wrong SO FAR……..which acknowledges we have plenty more games to play.
I am done with this circular crap with you, because you fail to answer questions, you move the goalposts, and you never acknowledge when you are wrong or when others have good points. Good day sir.
his last
his last three years OPS averages out to about 111 OPS+. And his OPS+ right now is 130. :D
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions
And that's with a .000 BABIP
Just imagine when he get’s a hit! haha.
You're kidding, right??
The Cubs signed a decent defensive centerfielder and immediately improved both CF and RF defense. He is signed to a contract that doesnt make him unmovable if Jackson is ready in 2 years. He has a .280/.340 career average.
We didnt sign him to be our power hitter, we signed him to improve defensively while doing what he can offensively.
decent?
Fuld was already better than decent. Byrd did not improve the team there. Now you’re using the team’s current draft picks to justify spending $15 million on a mediocre-at-best centerfielder no other team wanted?
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions
What?!
Fuld is unproven in the majors, and at $5M a year Byrd is a much safer option. The Cubs cannot afford to go into 2010 with so many questions marks.
And I’m not using draft picks to justify anything, I’m saying that if and when Jackson is ready to step up to the majors, Byrd will either be a great 4th outfielder or we can move him easily on a 1/5 deal.
Fuld has proven...
as much as Byrd has. Byrd has only proven that mediocre is his upside, as long as he gets to hit in a hitter’s ballpark. The numbers make that quite clear. Go look it up if you haven’t already.
Fuld has done nothing but prove he can play defense and get on base. The team desperately needs both. Unless Byrd continues to slug .700, he doesn’t give the Cubs anything they don’t already have. I said before they signed him, I’d rather they stick with Johnson and Fuld before they sign Marlon Byrd… and then they went and signed Marlon Byrd and paid him more than any other team would have for more years than any team would have given them. Three games doesn’t change any of this for me. We’ll revisit this at the end of April or even May.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions
Please prove that no other team would pay 3/$15M for Byrd.
And please prove how 80 ABs proves Fuld is a capable CFer?
He's played quality defense at every level
His only detraction being he takes too many risks. He’s gotten on-base and stolen bases at every level.
BTW… it was 97 PAs. I don’t even know where you got 80 from, oh that’s right… you don’t take walks into account. Which is probably why you overrate Marlon Byrd.
Marlon Byrd has nearly 3000 PAs of mediocre AT BEST performance. That’s proof, right there.
I wanted to give Sam Fuld a chance. That’s all I wanted. If he fails, at least you have the $15 million to improve the team in other areas. Now, this team is just out $15 million when Byrd predictably falters.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions
As a BIG Fuld fan ( you think)
even I understand his limitations. Byrd is a substantial upgrade and is practically a bargain in the current market. My issue has been that the Cubs have 5 rotating outfielders instead of 3 starters and two bench guys. Fuld is exactly the kind of guy you want on the bench, but you can’t go into a season with him as your starting CF.
PS those of you who think I overrate Fuld, please bookmark this post.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Appreciate your reply - means a lot coming from you.
But arguing with this guy is next to impossible.
also the issue is not that Fuld takes too many risks
but that he has no power. They are just not going to let a guy who might get 5 home runs if he started everyday, start everyday. There is no doubt Fuld understands this. Again I am just frustrated that someone who is almost the defination of perfect bench player, can’t get a spot on a bench because have 5 guys they want to start ( well maybe not WANT to start but for one reason or another have to). Some combination of injury or horribleness of play should open up the bench spot for Fuld, but I still think
he should have made the team.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Dont forget
He was robbed by a bad call in game 1. I know it doesnt count but with what, 12 at bats, his average would be up a bit. and he is hitting the ball hard.
i hate to bring up his name here
but watch what’s been happening to Milton Bradley in Seattle the first couple games. That’s getting robbed. Maybe he deserves it, and they deserve it for acquiring him, but he’s had more homers taken from over the fence than Byrd has hits. I think he has more walks than Byrd has hits too… and that’s in a pitcher’s park against really good pitchers.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions
Hate to bring it up here
But Vernon Wells has 6 runs, 4 HRs and 7RBIs. He has more HRs than most Cubs have hits, and we could have had him on our team this year!! He is clearly on his way to being the MVP and will live up to the entire value of his contract.
/sarcasm
kinda off the point
but take your own advice… three games don’t mean squat.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions
That was.... my entire point.....
You’re actually impossible to even argue with because you just don’t get it. You ignore anything you don’t like and move the posts for anything you dislike.
You make ridiculous comments and can’t back them up.
I’m personally done responding to anything from you for now.
I have 788 games of Marlon Byrd sucking on my side
what do you have? career OPS+ of 99. Yeah, he hit 20 HRs last year in a career year… and barely made a league-average OPS… hitting in Texas! The guy was the last OFer off the market. Show me one other team who wanted him… period.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Or... you could look at the fact that under Rudy J
Byrd’s last 3 years were OPS+ of 112, 121 and 106.
Byrds year last year was his worst out of his last 3, so there goes your arguement.
again...
in Texas… look at his home/road splits. They’re atrocious. It didn’t have a damn thing to do with Rudy Jaramillo. Everybody hits in Texas, then they go on the road ,and they suck. And even with that advantage he only managed a barely league-average OPS, in his ONLY full season. And the Cubs were the only team dumb enough to dump a three-year deal on him because they were desperate.
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by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions
there probably needs to be a different mode of thinking ...
for different TYPES of free agents. Frankly, I think Al and other BCBers are too gunshy about free agency after MB and some other bad signings. However, I understand not spending millions on bullpen arms when relievers are such a crapshoots.
OTOH, a pitcher is a pitcher to a point. If the Cubs have several talented arms in the system, it’s easier to make one of them an eighth-inning guy (look what the Cardinals did with Wainright in 2006). But you can’t make a good-hitting catcher into a centerfielder.
I wish...
people would look at Mark DeRosa more than just with pining eyes. They’d see what can happen when you correctly identify a good free agent signing. Low-risk, high-reward. A hitter from Texas who actually hit better AWAY from Texas! Free agent signings can work! Sure, there can be some surprises either way, but it’s not really hard to figure out the ones that won’t.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions
funny thing is ...
a lot of people were saying DeRosa was overpaid upon being signed.
Mike Gonzalez
isn’t a proven closer? Seriously, what that a joke? Not that I was for signing him, but how many games does a guy have to save to get some street cred then?
by Damen Jackson on Apr 9, 2010 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Surprising 2009 Statistic
There are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics. The Cubs only had 22 blown saves last season that later led to losses. That was the lowest number in MLB in 2009. That statistic really surprised me. Even so, I’m looking for better results out of the bullpen in 2010. Grabow is the only reliever that disappointed me in the Braves series. I’ve been impressed with Marshall. That’s just one series and a small sample size.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
Wow, that is very surprising.
I would not have guessed it.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions
Are you sure you did not make that up?
Seems really odd
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Are we talking
games in which the bullpen blew the lead?? I don’t recall 22 blown save situations.
Its funny, you spend most of your life gripping a baseball. And in the end, its almost always the other way around.
You are right this is not true
I can’t fnd any league total info but the Cubs had a total of 18 BS last year and I presume that a few did not actually result in losses (also how would you count it if a pitcher blew a save, the Cubs went ahead and another pitcher blew thath lead) Anyway Cubs had a total of 18 blown saves with our old friends
Gregg & Heilman leading the pack
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2009-pitching.shtml
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions
FYI things are not always as you remember
Gregg and Marmol had roughly the same percentage of saves 79% for Marmol & 77% for Gregg, but Heilman really was craptastic. Blew 6 out of 7. The Cubs were just mariginally better than league average. They converted 69% of saves, average was 65%
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Save percentage is worthless
Heilman rarely pitched in situations where he had a legitimate shot at getting a save. Save percentage punishes his unsuccessful outings and doesn’t reward his good ones. WPA is a much better way to measure the impact of relievers on games, though it’s subject to its own distortions.
Thanks for the Link
Even going by total number of bullpen losses, the number was 24. There was some strange statistic cited on the Peachtree TV telecast that suggested the Cubs bullpen was only responsible for 22 losses last season, whether that included blown saves or outright losses. The math is fuzzy.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
The thing about the bullpen
is that if you aren’t sure this is a competitive season to begin with, but you have a lot of interesting options ready or near ready, then spending money on the ‘pen at the start of the season doesn’t make much sense. Make Soto, Soriano, and the Cajuns prove this offense will be worth ’pen upgrades first.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
I dunno
if game 1 was really all that competitive, especially after the blown call.
Game two was… not good.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Colvin's HR was his second 2010 at-bat
Al wrote:
Colvin slammed his first major league home run off Tommy Hanson in his first at-bat of the year in the second inning.
Colvin pinch-hit for Russell in the 7th inning of the season opener and flew out to right field.
Small correction: it wasn't Colvin's first AB of the year
Due to his PH appearance the 1st game. Which reminds me that Gray surprisingly got the PH duties Wednesday; could have used a Tyler-bomb there. At any rate, I will assume his ABs will be coming and the next great wish will be for Castro to arrive and bump Theriot back over to 2nd.
Thanks.
I had tried to forget a lot about that season opener. I’ll fix the post.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Oh no... You reminded him...
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
Do we have to count that first game?
Was the official box score in pen or pencil?
"On offense, your most precious possessions are your 27 outs" - Earl Weaver
by RiskyBusiness on Apr 9, 2010 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Colvin was ranked 170 before the 2006 draft by BA
Does anyone have access to the BA pre-draft ranking from 2006? It would be interesting to see who was ranked ahead of Colvin at that point and how so of them have turned out.
"On offense, your most precious possessions are your 27 outs" - Earl Weaver
I think...
… that making any meaningful assessments regarding Colvin and the 169 individuals who were ranked ahead of him should wait a few years. I’m glad to see that Colvin had a great spring and is showing some really good signs, however he’s far from a major league fixture right now.
Just curious because it's been brought up
"On offense, your most precious possessions are your 27 outs" - Earl Weaver
by RiskyBusiness on Apr 9, 2010 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions
That seems a bit too low
Even if you believe the 4th round projections that would still make him better than 170. BA also came out and admitted they had him too low on their list. John Manuel had the following quote on a post draft blog (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/chat/2006/261643.html)
I like Colvin a lot better than the other college OFs in the draft, guys like Jon Jay and Shane Robinson. We were a little slow to react on him in our lists unfortunately.
General consensus was probably a 2nd rounder.
Thanks
That’s a very interesting perspective, especially with the Samardzija info too.
"On offense, your most precious possessions are your 27 outs" - Earl Weaver
by RiskyBusiness on Apr 9, 2010 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions
The win was great, however
Al, you’re either missing the point, or being intentionally obtuse. I was disturbed by the two losses not because we started out 0-2, and contrary to what many on here think whenever someone says anything negative, I did not say the season was over. I was disturbed by the two losses because of how incredibly crappy the team looked in getting them. EVERY thing I was concerned about as I watched Jim and Lou put this team together seemed to be coming to fruition.
While the win yesterday was nice, and needed, and hopefully it will get a little momentum heading into a very easy part of the schedule, but in that win, our offense was still moribund, and our bullpen beyond Marshall and Caridad is still very VERY frightening.
Our offense was 2-11 with RISP in this series, and 0-7 in the last two games of the series. We’ve had two sac flies, one for an RBI, which means that as far as getting a hit, with runners in scoring position, we’re 2 for 13.
The win was nice, hopefully going up against a lesser pitching staff in Cincy will help, but I don’t feel a whole lot better, and I won’t until our bullpen beyond Marshall and Caridad can actually get guys out, and we actually start hitting
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
all kinds of win!!!
Well played
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions
I will say one of my concerns was that Wells would be a one year wonder
and so far, it appears he actually is the real deal.
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
Agreed
I didn’t need two losses against Atlanta to tell me this was going to be a long season. I already thought that. Colvin and Wells producing can improve my outlook on the team a lot. Marlon Byrd producing can drastically change the view of the team.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Apr 9, 2010 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions
Agree there..
Wells appears to have it.
Nice to see a guy doesn’t need to throw 95 to be effective
The journey is the reward!
Wells
is going to benefit the most from the Cubs having Maddux around, IMO.
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living." -- Alvin Dark
I'm starting to really enjoy watching Wells pitch
He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he’s a battler and he has a lot of poise for a second year player.
Zambrano should be watching and taking notes: it’s possible to keep it together and actually pitch out of jams.
by bluekoolaide on Apr 9, 2010 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions
Marmol
didn’t prove he can get guys out?
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Do I feel better?
Not really. 7 of the 9 runs scored in the series were via the long ball. Home runs tend to come in bunches and I fear this team will be like it was a few years ago when they scored something like 80% of their runs via the home run. I hope it changes..
What I do like is Colvin. Hopefully they find enough time for him to stay in a groove..
The journey is the reward!
And for anyone who feels like ledge jumping,
Do you know how many teams are unbeaten to this point in MLB?
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 9:49 AM CDT reply actions
So what is your point?
Other than being negative, of course.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
To answer your question
Yes … yes I do feel better. :-)
"I know it is the fans that are responsible for me being here. I've always tried in each and every broadcast to serve the fans to the best of my ability." - Harry Caray
Wake me when it's June
Until then, teams still need to settle, go on winning and losing streaks, players will get injured, starting pitchers will be all warmed up, new players will be getting comfortable, etc. I feel pretty good about guys like Marmol, Zambrano, etc. in that they’ll get better over time, so I’m not exactly worried about anyone’s performance just yet. No sense in getting worked up over nothing.
www.facebook.com/craighudak
by Craig in South Bend on Apr 9, 2010 10:01 AM CDT reply actions
No you have to jump off a ledge made of Kool-Aid
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions
It was one of those 'fasten your seatbelts" kind of nights.
"Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air."-Pat Hughes
yeah it was really exciting
much more fun than the first two games
by jasperthepilot on Apr 9, 2010 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions
An anemic offense
that hit balls hard all night. This offensive appearance didn’t resemble 2009 to me in the least. See below, there were multiple balls that were hit extremely hard.
Its funny, you spend most of your life gripping a baseball. And in the end, its almost always the other way around.
Oh,
and did you see the Cards were shut out by Bronson Arroyo yesterday?? I’ll take 2 off of Tommy Hansen compared to that any day. RELAX.
Its funny, you spend most of your life gripping a baseball. And in the end, its almost always the other way around.
Correction,
1 Run. Off a HR by Holliday. Hardly any better.
Its funny, you spend most of your life gripping a baseball. And in the end, its almost always the other way around.
I love those last few words there Al
You have to (and rightfully so) tell some folks to exercise some patience.
As always, nice write up. You run a helluva site here.
Just win the next game...!
Colvin has impressed me...
…so far this spring.
I wrote a comment after the first couple of ST games, that his bat looked much quicker and his swing nice and compact compared to last year. Probably a direct affect from being stronger and being able to wait on the ball a tad longer before he commits to his swing.
I say give this guy every chance you can until the league has found a weakness and has shut him down. You just don’t know what you may have here until he gets a decent amount of at bats.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I couldn't agree more.
"I mean, if we can’t take Colvin after the spring he’s had, something is wrong," -- Lou
He hit another one that was rocketed down the line
I thought it was for sure a double but Glaus made a nice play on it.
Yeah, I'm with you here.
Lou says he’s playing Colvin three times a week? Sounds good to me, until/unless he shows he can’t hit.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Why does Theriot get to play so much then?
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Apr 9, 2010 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
because leadoff batters aren't supposed to get hits?
because of his awesome defense?
because we’re too left handed?
"...the internet is not something you just dump something on. It's not a truck. It's a series of tubes." - Sen. Ted Stevens
email me for shipping info
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Apr 9, 2010 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions
No...........
he really wants a Theriot jersey
buy two - and send the other one to Theriot...
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Anyone else's BCB home page right side bar kind of wanky?
Mine starts out with fan shots and the fan posts are way down in the pecking order… who’s messing with my world?
"I mean, if we can’t take Colvin after the spring he’s had, something is wrong," -- Lou
NM. It's fixed now. How bizarre.
"I mean, if we can’t take Colvin after the spring he’s had, something is wrong," -- Lou
Couple things...
I’m not worried about Marmol. I thought he looked pretty good last night. He had overwhelming stuff. Look at the backfoot slider he threw Mclouth; just a nasty breaking ball that I thought he went around on. Apparently McClouth has had some luck against Marmol. Most guys don’t see him well and will offer at those sliders. I think he did just fine.
As far as scoring runs. I think its been a rather unlucky 3 games. The Cubs have tattooed some balls, especially to deep right. Lee hammered one out to deep right, Kosuke crushed a few deep balls, Colvin obliterated a ball that Glaus snagged, Theriot hit a laser beam at Glaus as well. They hit the ball hard for the better part of 3 games off 3 good pitchers. When the balls start to carry a bit more a lof of those are leaving the yard, especially at Wrigley.
I also cannot understand that verbal beating Soriano is taking here. He has looked every bit as good at the plate as Lee has…but we’re calling Soriano a loser here??
Its funny, you spend most of your life gripping a baseball. And in the end, its almost always the other way around.
The next three games,
In Cincinnati, might change that. GABP is something of an airport because it is a hitter’s park to the nth degree.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions
good win last night, salvaged the series a bit
Wells recording 13 ground outs is going to be the key to his success this year. He doesn’t have good enough stuff to get K’s, so he’s going to have to live on good command and ground balls (sort of like a better version of Jason Marquis). He’s not going to be anywhere near as successful as last year, but a solid 4th starter he can certainly be
My biggest concerns coming out of this series continue to be the same concerns I noted in the offseason:
1) The pitching staff as a whole lacks depth. We don’t have SP depth, we don’t have bullpen depth and there are going to be a number of games this year where we’re trying to scratch together late innings that are going to get ugly.
2) Pineilla thinks Grabow is way better than he is
3) Theriot batting leadoff is giving way too many PA’s to your worst hitter. This is a problem when it comes to generating runs.
Marmol looks “fresher” this year and his arm angle looks a bit better. I’m hoping the transition to the closer’s role will keep him a bit insulated from the abusive usage patterns in past years
I don’t believe at all in Tyler Colvin but if we can get lightening to strike for a week or two I’m for it. Colvin’s minor league #‘s are pedestrian and his plate discipline and approach is atrocious. He tries to pull everything. His bat speed is fine, but he’ll get exposed in time.
My guess is Colvin gets the Pie treatment. Inconsistent playing time after a big spring, starts to not hit, shuffled back to AAA. The only difference is Lou seems to genuinely like Colvin and didn’t like Pie (despite Pie being the superior prospect). Perhaps that gives Colvin a bit longer leash
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 11:23 AM CDT reply actions
I think you might wait till after Silva & Gorzo get a start
to decide we lack starting pitcher depth. Right now I think it is the great unknown. I am strangely optimistic about fatso. I don’t think Grabow is that bad, but Lou still has no clue how to manage a bullpen, beyond I like vets and I will throw out the guy who did well yesterday.
Here is hoping Lou flips Theriot and Dome in the line up or at least lets Dome get some starts at leadoff. Not much to choose from for leadoff, but Dome is the best of a bad lot.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions
Especcially..........
When our top 4 starters are soon to be Z, Dempster, Wells and Lilly, in no particular order.
perhaps we have different impressions of SP depth
i’m of the belief you need 7 capable starters to get through a full season
I believe the Cubs have 4, maybe 5
Sure when healthy it looks like we have decent depth but most of our pitchers have missed time in the last three years and are good bets to miss time again
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
That's fair.......
Honest question though, does any team have 4 starting pitchers that good AND 7 guys who could start and do a good job?
i think so
Boston, Yankees, Braves, Rays, Phillies, White Sox, Twins
I think all those teams have 6 guys who can be counted on for league average innings and can start
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Not sure about the Phillies...........
Halladay, Hamels, Happ, Moyer, Contreras and ?
Or the White Sox……………
Buerhle, Danks, Garcia, Floyd, Peavy, and ?
Or the Twins…………….
Liriano, Baker, Pavano, Blackburn, Slowey
Do these guys give you more comfort than Z/Wells/Lilly/Dempster/Silva?
its the 6,7 guys
for the Phillies you’re forgetting Blanton (who is on the DL now)
for the White Sox Daniel Hudson is just about ready
the Twins i’m stretching for a 6th, 7th so you may have caught me there
I guess my issue with the Cubs SP depth is i don’t believe Silva can be a league average pitcher and if not then we have to dip into Marshall as the 6th option and then our bullpen takes a huge hit
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Fair.......
Not arguing, but if the Cubs have the 7th best rotation, that’s pretty good, right? And there are many other teams that have WORSE SP depth.
that line of reasoning
is fine, and probably worth nit-picking my original point
but the Cubs don’t have anywhere close to the 7th best pitching staff in baseball this year
the bullpen depth is really ugly so while the SP depth might be OK when compared to the rest of MLB, the bullpen depth will drag them down below teams with better bullpens
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions
DCF
Not trying to nitpick you. I like our 1-4 starters. I generally like our bullpen. Sure we have a few holes (Shark, Berg, Grabow), but you’ve also got to like it that Marshall/Russell/Marmol/Caridad have pitched 9 scoreless innings, whereas Shark/Berg/Grabow have pitched 2 2/3 with 8 ER.
Lou’s figuring out who he can count on, and who he can’t. You can’t figure it all out based solely on ST. We’ve got other potential options in Gray, Stevens, Parisi, etc in AAA.
I agree with you on 2 and 3, but I think people are a bit too negative/pessimistic/worrisome about our pitching.
wow.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions
I think
DCF greatly underestimates the quality of our starting pitchers.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Also....
… DCF has an irrational dislike for John Grabow.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Agreed...
Wednesday not withstanding, I think Grabow is likely to serve as an above league average set up man/reliever this year.
Assuming Marmol performs well in the closer role, we should have a core of 4+ solid to very good relievers. We are left with some question marks then in middle relief, but that can be said about nearly every team.
"...the internet is not something you just dump something on. It's not a truck. It's a series of tubes." - Sen. Ted Stevens
why?
may i ask?
is it because he’s averaged 0.1 WAR over the last 3 years
above replacement sure
above league average… eh…
value above his contract? no shot
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions
i find it very rational
its supported by numbers….
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions
But they're IRRATIONAL NUMBERS.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Apr 9, 2010 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions
you're right
i talked to the #7 yesterday and the ideas that guy had….
he was CRAZY
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't know about that!
Baseball stats are typically just formed through addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division.
Maybe you can get irrational numbers for a guy that throws a “circle” change…
… thus invoking pi…
worst pun ever.
Theriot needs to bat 8th
for the lineup to have a better chance at scoring runs
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions
and play 2nd base for the defense to have a better chance at preventing runs.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Apr 9, 2010 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
Riot and Colvin
Theriot batting leadoff is giving way too many PA’s to your worst hitter.
No kidding. And if the top of the order looks bad now, just wait until we trade Dome. Fontenot needs to start hitting some HRs, because Riot will give him an opening to keep that 2B job when Castro comes up.
As for Colvin, I share your skepticism, but I have more hope based on Wilken’s original hopes and projections. Perhaps added bat speed is allowing him to live up to a higher level.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
why did we argue so much this offseason?
i feel like every comment in this thread you’ve made i generally agree with
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Apr 9, 2010 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Let's give Atlanta a little credit. They're pretty good.
And their pitching is going to hold alot of teams down.
I'd like to see
How the Atlanta/Philadelphia series play out. Those should be very entertaining.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions
I love hitting the Z key a thousand times
to get past an incredibly circular and dull argument.
www.facebook.com/craighudak
by Craig in South Bend on Apr 9, 2010 11:38 AM CDT reply actions
{SHIFT + A} IS YOUR FRIEND.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Apr 9, 2010 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
Oh man
SWL, that is king sized. Thanks!
www.facebook.com/craighudak
by Craig in South Bend on Apr 9, 2010 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions
TWSS
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Apr 9, 2010 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions
sorry Craig-
I should’ve quit a long time ago, but it just pissed me off.
It's cool
I was just cracking a joke anyway
www.facebook.com/craighudak
by Craig in South Bend on Apr 9, 2010 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions
I saw the argument, bu just ignored it.
I wish I could have followed that philosophy more recently.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions
you too, hunh?
"I mean, if we can’t take Colvin after the spring he’s had, something is wrong," -- Lou
OT: At times mobile BCB is difficult to read
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
by eths on Apr 9, 2010 11:39 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Does anyone know if Tyler got his first HR ball ?
As we watched, and I don’t know if this made it onto TV last night, a fan tossed it out into LF, and the Atlanta OF’er tossed it to one of the grounds crew who stood off to the side and who then flung it into the crowd.
I hope someone went after that for Colvin. That was one elating blast.
Blue mountains high .. Blue valleys low
I don't know which way we shall go ..
One summer dream .. one summer dream ..
coda
ELO, 1975
Silva Zambrano and Gorzelanny
Looking forward to the weekend to how Silva and Gorz fair. Not expecting it, but I think they should keep Colvin in the lineup.
Unless or until the offense comes alive along with defense good enough to not blow close games, it is going to be tough on the bullpen.
Oh, BTW...
…that’s an awesome photo of Colvin at the top of the page. If they continue with the refrigeratorizing of Wrigley Field, I’d love to see that image on one of those huge banners.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
LOL @ "refrigeratorizing"
But that’s why I chose that photo for this post. I really like it, too.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
If they do the same thing next year...
I wonder how many prospects will grace those walls after the Cubs clean house in the offseason.
I think they should fill it full of 4A guys....
Let’s get some Bobby Scales and Sam Fulds up there….maybe even some classics like Big Murt.
Or put
Pictures of Corey Patterson, Felix Pie, and then Starlin Castro in order. Kind of like an evolution of man thing.
Dear Soriano, FEAR.....
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Apr 9, 2010 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Lineup...
Theriot
Colvin
Lee
Ramirez
Nady
Soriano
Fontenot
Hill
Silva
Someday we'll go all the way...
Hill two days in row sticks out
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions
He sould have called his doctor if it lasted more that 4 hours.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Apr 9, 2010 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions
LOL!
Well player, sir.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Apr 9, 2010 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Actually not crazy about this
You are sticking Colvin in between two defensively challenged outfielders. He should get a good work out.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 9, 2010 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Are you sure?
That only means he’ll be really hot and sweaty.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Apr 9, 2010 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions
It will be interesting to see what kind of pitches TC gets with Lee and Aramis behind him.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Apr 9, 2010 3:31 PM CDT reply actions
In the first two innings.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
by DGU on Apr 9, 2010 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions
There's a study a few years back that looked at relative "small sample sizes" of team W-L records and predicted out their full 162 game successes.
I’ll have to find it again, but this team has already played out just as I thought it would. Poor offense. Overall bad. Sigh.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Anybody else cheering against Silva? The less time he's on a Major League roster, the better.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
you don't cheer
against players on your own team. Of course, you forgot that last year, too.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 9, 2010 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh, Drew, a low blow!
Milton Bradley sucks.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
No.
I hope he does well and wins the Cy Young, actually. Always optimistic – that’s what makes me a fan.
Once Silva puts that Cubs jersey his past doesn’t mean a thing to me.
Now if he goes out there and puts up those numbers he did last year? I want him far away – but I’m sure Lou won’t keep him in the rotation anyway if he performs badly.
2010 is OUR year.
Guys, relax...
Dan is still sore form the anal rape NIU administered to his mighty Jayhawks last month…give him time, he’ll calm down.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Apr 9, 2010 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Is it ok to hope he is flukily good enough for 6 starts
so we can trade him to the Royals?
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
by DGU on Apr 9, 2010 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Watching the Braves/Giants game
Jason Heyward looks like he can’t hit a breaking pitchnear the zone.
2010 is OUR year.
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