Why aren't the Cubs scoring more runs?
by tharr on May 13, 2010 7:14 AM CDT
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PrintThe Cubs team BA at .271 and OBP of .341 is 5th highest in the league. According to Baseball Prospectus we have faced the 2nd worst pitchers in both leagues. So the obvious question should be why are we scoring so few runs so often. We've scored 4 or more runs 17 times. Our opponents have scored 4 or more 16 times. Now we come to an amazing disparity. We are 1-16 in those low scoring games. However, our opponents are 8-8.
Our OBP says we're getting men on base at a very high level. Why isn't it being translated into more runs. According to a formula based upon equivalent runs scored and equivalent runs allowed, our record through 34 games should have been 19-15 instead of the actual 14-20. It tells us that we underscored by 12 runs. However it also indicates our opponents have scored 20 more runs than they did.
Our opponents have a BA of .301 with RISP which might explain why they have scored more runs than normal. But one seldom discussed batting split may indicate where a good part of the problem lies. It has to do with getting the leadoff man in any inning on base. Our leadoff man in each inning has a BA of .246 and an OBP of .311. All other Cub hitters have numbers of .278/.360. Since there is a greater value to getting the leadoff man on base as opposed to a runner getting on with one or two outs, it seems that is causing our offense to score fewer runs than we need.
Who are the best leading off an inning Plate appearances and BA/OBP:
Soto 22 PA .353/.500
Byrd 29 PA .370/.414
Who are the worst:
Soriano 29 PA .200/.310
Theriot 66 PA .250/.273 Leading off the game 31 PA .167/.194 and in 35 games Cubs have drawn only 1 BB
Ramirez 31 PA .194/.194
Lee 29 PA .160/.276
Fukudome 22 PA .158/.273
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Seems like it's a bit of both.
Not getting the leadoff man on base, AND not hitting with RISP.
The question is, is this a temporary blip that will fix itself, or something systemic?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
The team
is 9th in OPS with RISP, slightly below league average. However, that is more than offset by having the lowest by far BAbip of .265 versus league average .303. That would indicate a certain amount of bad luck which shoud even out over the year.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
Indeed it is
AZ has the highest at .358
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
problem hasn't been
scoring runs….
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by DartmouthCubsFan on May 14, 2010 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions
Send this memo to Lou, Tharr
This is an important part of the game getting the first guy on so three guys have a chance to move him around and get him in.
I think this may even out in the long run but we cannot go back and make up the games we have already lost.
This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).
its pretty simple
you’re going to underperform your run expectation if you’re hitting your worst players most and your best players least
the Cubs refusal to move Soto towards the heart of the order and keep him largely in the 7th and 8th hole, while giving Theriot the most AB’s at the top of the lineup is the reason we can’t score
every time Soto gets on it’s usually with a pitcher using an out in the next AB
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by DartmouthCubsFan on May 13, 2010 8:26 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Soto hit fifth yesterday.
That lineup produced well. I’d use it again. However, Lou probably won’t.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Theriot leads NL with hits
In fact, Theriot, Byrd and Soriano are in the top 10 for batting average. Fukudome is #14. I’m not sure why Soto isn’t on the list but he must be short of a couple at-bats.
Unless Theriot gets a hit and Fukudome/Byrd gets a bases clearing double Cubs run into a problem. Lee and Ramirez are getting the first two outs. At this rate Lou needs to fill in the lineup based on current production. If Lee and Ramirez move to 4th and 5th (or even 5th and 6th) the team should score more runs.
Soto was short earlier this season
They gone have to stop sleeping on me one day.. I gotta be one of the best
About 3 hours ago by Eric Wright Cleveland Browns – Cornerback
Soto's hitting 8th
and being replaced 2 times a week by koyie hill is drawing his PA’s down low enough that he doesn’t quality
having your best hitter by a wide margin not even getting enough PA’s to qualify for the batting title is a perfect example of how inept the lineup construction has been
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by DartmouthCubsFan on May 13, 2010 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Theriot
may be leading the NL in hits (rather useless stat based on opportunity and not walking, but i digress) but he’s not getting on-base to start games as OP noted and he’s unlikely to keep hitting the way that he has
He has a .378 BABIP and even worse he’s got a .355 Singles Average. BABIPs can remain high if a player is racking up a lot of 2B’s on hard hit balls. The league average on Singles average is closer to .260, Theriot’s career average (including this inflated small sample) is .279
When he reverts to his career averages and the luck fades, we’re looking at a .280-.290 hitter as opposed to a .330 hitter
and as that regression takes place he’ll be getting on-base a whole lot less, since he’s not taking walks we’re looking at a likely .320-.330 OBP, which is atrocious out of the leadoff spot
yes he’s been ok for now, but he’s not likely to remain ok
so while the Cubs will likely improve when Ramirez/Lee get going it will likely be with a lot less runners on base in front of them (as Theriot regresses)
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by DartmouthCubsFan on May 13, 2010 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions
The fact that
Ramirez and Lee play most every day obviously causes a big problem. They account for 22% of team plate appearances. The two guys with the highest OPS, Soto and Fukudome account for 17%. ARam and Lee have 69 AB with RISP. In those AB, they have 25 RBI or a 36% rating. Soto and Fukudome have 41 plate appearances with RISP. They have 22 RBI for a 54% rating. The best two ratings are for Soriano and Fukudome. Their ratings are 43% and 70%. Byrd also has a 43% rating.
That would seem to suggest Soriano Fukudome and Byrd should occupy the 3-4-5 slots.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
that's accurate
for what has happened to this point this year, but there’s a few issues with this: 1) RISP for the first 35 games or so is a very small sample size, you’re talking about a couple dozen PA’s 2) it’s ignoring the likelihood that Lee and Ramirez will get better
While you’re accurate in assessing the current issue, my point was more addressing both the current (referencing Soto as the best hitter) and future (referencing Theriot as the weakest). Admittedly my point wasn’t drawn out very well.
But my point is over the long-term Theriot is likely the worst hitter in the lineup, he has a career line that suggests as such. Giving him the most PA’s and giving Soto (who probably has the 3rd best career line on the team) the least amount of PA’s is pure lunacy. And that means in the future, even when Lee and Ramirez start hitting again, we’re unlikely to improve our run-scoring significantly, because they’re likely to improve at a time when Theriot is getting on-base far less.
The long-term solution to this problem involves putting Theriot all the way down to the 8 hole and moving Soto up in the lineup.
I think our best long-term lineup vs. RHP is:
Fukudome
Soto
Lee
Ramirez
Soriano
Byrd
Castro
Theriot
Pitcher
Those who believe its necessary to have speed at the top of the lineup may want to switch Byrd and Soto, but Fukudome and Soto are the two of the most patient hitters in the lineup looking at P/PA and two of our highest OBP guys. I’ve detailed Soto’s improvements in plate discipline and its very real. That would give pitchers a tough first 5 outs that they’ll have to grind through before getting to the bottom of the lineup (where we have some free-swingers)
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by DartmouthCubsFan on May 13, 2010 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Obviously my numbers are based upon small
sample size since they include only 35 games. But we must be careful.not to assume players will revert to their career averages. So while I do expect them both to improve, I don’t predict they’ll achieve career averages. and I also believe we need to address the obvious problems in having them in the heart of the lineup. They are not in a 3-5 day slump. My contention is that they both be moved out of the heart of the order until such time as they improve their performance.
Your suggestion that Theriot is the worst hitter in the lineup doesn’t make him the worst player in the lineup this year. Certainly that award goes to Ramirez followed closely by Lee. And while you can hypothesize that Ryan will regress while Lee and ARam go to career averages is only that, a thoughtful assumption. I believe that we not act on that theory until such time as we see evidence that it is happening.
Instead I believe we should try to stop the bleeding by changing the heart of the lineup. That means we move Lee and Ramirez. At such time they appear to be earning a better place in our lineup, then we can make further changes.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
I'd be quite pleased with that lineup.
And I agree that P/PA and OBP should be huge factors in who bats first and second.
Here are a few more numbers I looked at after reading this:
Cubs are:
- 9th in baseball with 309 at bats w/Risp, 24 above average
- 14th in baseball with .256 BA w/Risp, .004 under average
- 12th in baseball with 124 runs scored w/Risp, 10 over average
- 12th with 161 total runs, 8 over average
- They are also 12th best in fewest SO and 16th in walks
They have wins with 10, 11, 12, and 14 runs scored. It was pointed out here that the 4.6 runs scored per game average is skewed by these and the median was in the threes. These are probably skewing the above stats as the team is at or above average in all those categories, but well below in wins.
If in those games 8 runs were scored, the run avg drops the team down to 20 to 25th place out of 30 teams. I’m not a statistician, I look at these for my own amusement. So, I invite any stat geeks to break it down properly. Last, the offense ranks 7th in Vorp and the pitching ranks 22nd. Marmol and Marshall are the only relievers on the positive side, all the starters are positive. (Z is negative)
What conclusion did I draw from this? Umm, the offense needs to and should be scoring more and middle relief is killing the team…
Genius, I know!!
Formerly known as BleedsbluinMi.
Situational hitting is more important
A team can hit four home runs, but still lose by a run if those home runs were all solo home runs.
And the eighth and final rule: if this is your first time at Fight Club, you have to fight.
a team can also go 4-4 with RISP
and lose the game if the team only scores 4 runs and the opponent scores more
what kind of anecdote is that?
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by DartmouthCubsFan on May 13, 2010 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions
When the Cubs have gotten a runner on
with 1 or 2 outs, they haven’t played good baseball. When they aren’t bunting, they are striking out or hitting the ball to the left side of the infield. There are so many little things that this team has done poorly, it’s inevitable that they haven’t scored as often as they should, or as the averages would suggest they should. Every time Lou says to the press, “What do you want me to do,” I want to scream- how about teaching and insisting that guys advance runners, by giving themselves up once in a while. Or, take a pitch or 2 if they pitcher has displayed wildness. If pitchers are nibling on the corner, go w/ the pitch. LaRussa may overmanage, but given the last two years, I would take it.
"Chicago Cubs fans are ninety percent scar tissue." - George F. Will
I agree
I don’t understand why this team is not bunting a runner over or hitting a sacrifice fly, instead they are concerned about swinging at the first pitch and hitting a homerun. When Theriot executed that squeeze earlier in the season, I was like “wow, I have not seen that from the Cubs in years”. I know I may be blowing this up a little, but this team needs to manufacture runs better.
Because the perception of Wrigley is flawed
Everyone seems to think that every game is/could/should be a 14-11 affair, but in the last few years the number of those games has been going down. But everyone goes in demanding a Dave Kingman special from their 4/5/6. No, it’s not Busch Stadium during the Ozzie/Vince years, but Wrigley doesn’t seem to play as small as it used to.
[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."
by NobodySpecial on May 13, 2010 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions
So you're saying
We should tear down Wrigley????
:)
Our .AVG w RISP is so low
In great part due to the lineup being centered around the only guys who aren’t hitting. Breakdown the ABs w RISP. There is a higher percentage for Ramirez and Lee than there should be. Any manager who gave a damn who bench them/move them down the order/make Ramirez see the hitting coach.
What always strikes me is how much of a station-to-station team the Cubs are
It might be a false impression (I sure don’t have the patience to sort through the numbers to confirm this) but the Cubs rarely seem to go from first to third on singles, or to score from first on doubles, or even to score from second on singles all that often. That can’t be helping the number of runs scored.
by Limey Cub Fan Jay on May 13, 2010 8:18 PM CDT reply actions
probably
because the big boys are not driving them in.a lot of guys are hitting in the 300,s but lee and rammy are just struggling too much.
Our strikeouts are down
We are 13th in strikeouts at 236, below the NL average of 250. The previous two years, the Cubs were sixth in that statistic each season. Is that a result of Jaramillo’s influence or because they’ve faced the 2nd worst pitching in the league? Texas was high in strikeout’s the last two seasons as well (1st in 2009, 4th in 2008).
And while BABIP w/ RSIP as a team might improve as the season goes along, they’ll also likely face better pitchers. So the BABIP w/ RISP could go up, while the number of oppurtunities goes down. In the end, those two possibilities may cancel each other out and the runs scored remains at a similar level.
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