Is Castro ready to bat leadoff?
by tharr on Jun 20, 2010 2:47 AM CDT
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PrintLet's see what we have this year. The only two guys that have really been given a chance are Theriot and Fukudome. Ryan is .277/,314/.303/.617 in 2010. But since he was moved to 2B he has plunged to .221/.264/.229/.492 for 34 games and his sOPS+39. Worse yet, these are his numbers leading off the game. .174/.191/.217/.409 and sOPS+21. Add to that his zero SB and 1BB in 47 games. So while Lou apparently doesn't know what he can do. he might ask someone in the stats department if those are decent numbers.
Fukudome's numbers aren't much better batting #1. .206/.313/.294/.607 with 2BB and again zero SB. So how does this impact the team? We've been outscored 50-28 in the 1st inning. That's a 22 run deficit in the beginning. For the season we've been outscored by 26 runs, almost all of them accumulated by inning 2. When we trail going into the 2nd inning, we have a 2-16 record. Incidentally, we're outscored in the 7th inning 56-33, but that's another matter.
Bruce Miles suggests we move Soriano back to leadoff. Lou tried Colvin the other day. Some suggest Soto and others Fontenot. My opinion leans to getting someone at the top with good speed. But I also want someone who plays every day and isn't a power hitter because we've had our share of problems in the middle of the lineup. Those parameters suggest that Castro should be given an extended trial leading off. His numbers are .272/.327/.360/.687 with 12BB/19K. He's only been sent to steal twice but that's a reflection of his usual position ahead of either the pitcher or Lee. His speed is being wasted in those spots.
The biggest problem many claim is that he's a rookie and we don't want to put too much pressure on him. Ok. Let's look at some of the rookies who were put at #1 and succeeded in the past. Rickey Henderson and Suzuki both began their careers at the top. How about recent players? Pierre. Furcal, Nyjer Morgan, Dexter Fowler, Ellsbury, Hanley Ramirez and Denard Span. Unless there is credible evidence elsewhere, I can't imagine Starlin can't handle the job. The reality is that unless we find someone on the roster capable of leading off in 2011, we'll have to buy or trade a valuable player to win games. And anyone with a memory can tell you how successful we were getting Roberts or Furcal.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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That isn't the biggest problem
The biggest problem is that he’s not an ideal leadoff hitter, a guy with good patience. I love Castro, huge fan, but he also sports a fairly (for a leadoff hitter) pedestrian P/PA (it’s at 3.6, having climbed up from 3.4ish a few weeks ago). He’s also not a great baserunner (decent-solid raw speed, solid lateral movement, but his baserunning capabilities are fairly average).
Compared to our other options, he’s not bad, but he really isn’t an ideal leadoff hitter. Long run, depending on his power development, he might be a 2 hitter (good contact, won’t strike out a lot, puts the ball in play). If he develops some of the high end power expectations, he might fit somewhere from 3-6, but that’d be a best case scenario.
In fact, I expect Jackson
to ultimately lead off for us. However, for the here and now, who is a better option? Castro’s quickest path to the majors was putting balls in play.not taking walks. And while he hasn’t shown great base stealing ability, he does have excellent speed which is more than anyone but Colvin can claim.
He has shown the ability to be selective recently. and it seems shortsighted to suggest he can’t adapt to leading off. Here are his minor league numbers along with those of some other current leadoff guys.
Castro .310/.362/.421/.783 51SB/23CS 75BB/121BB 1098PA
H Ramirez .297/.352/.430/.783 99SB/45CS 120BB/232K 1700PA
Ellsbury .315/.391/.426/.917 106SB/27CS 113BB/127K 1167PA
N Morgan .293/.370/.365/.735 234SB/80CS 167BB/370K 2287PA
Furcal .308/.385/.386/.771 172SB/47CS 116BB/131K 1135PA
As far as minor league comps. he comes closest to Ramirez. But his overall splits appear in line with the others except for SB. althoug his success rate is about 70% which is good.
The bottom line to me is we have no other viable choices at leadoff. As such, why wouldn’t we at least give him a long look there? Perhaps he can refine his abilities as a #1 hitter with good coaching.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
other than Ramirez
we’re talking about 80 pt splits between AVG and OBP, Castro’s is 45 points
my point being the other guys listed were made to be leadoff hitters, Castro isn’t
As Toonster noted he doesn’t take enough pitches and he doesn’t walk enough
This is Corey Patterson and Felix Pie all over again. Round Pegs into square holes. Castro’s not meant to be a leadoff hitter
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Jun 20, 2010 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions
for the here and now
I don’t mind if they want to throw Castro in there. I’m not one that believes throwing him in there will damage his future. My only point is to suggest that, based on history and his skillset, he isn’t really an ideal leadoff guy.
I’m also hoping that Brett Jackson isn’t our leadoff hitter. I’m hoping his power develops and that he settles into a solid 3-6 hitter. He also isn’t a great baserunner, and while he takes BB’s, you’d ideally want a leadoff hitter that doesn’t strike out more than 20% of the time. The K’s don’t bother me overall, unless the expectation is that he’s leading off. Considering the lack of power in the system, he’s more useful later on.
He's not a good leadoff hitter now and I don't think anyone really knows yet what he's going to be in the future.
The Cubs are so slow as a team he gets mentioned as a leadoff hitter by default, really. I do think putting him there puts pressure on him to perform at something he isn’t good at, whether that damages his future is certainly debateable…but I don’t think doing it either way helps the team.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jun 20, 2010 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions
He might be.
One comp I’ve heard for Jackson is Steve Finley. Finley was quite a good leadoff hitter for a long time.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Never liked the comp
is it possible? Sure, but as of now, it makes very little sense to me, outside of athletic, white CF. Why don’t I like it? Well, the biggest difference is discipline. Finley was a low K rate guy. For his career, he averaged his K% each year was 13.8. With Jackson, you hope for improvement, but realistically, he’ll be a guy who, as of now, looks likely to K around 20% or more each year.
There’s some other differences. Finley’s power spike came late in his career. Right now, most anticipate Jackson’s power level in his prime to be around what Finley managed to put up late in his career, when he went to Arizona. He did have two very good power years in 96 and 97.
I also anticipate Jackson to walk more.
Are these substantial differences? IMO, yes, which is why I’ve never really bought that comparison.
On the other hand, I can really see the Jim Edmonds comparisons, although I don’t know if Jackson will have that level of power. That’d be wishing on a best case scenario.
Long term looking at the system
Hak-Ju Lee probably appears to be the future lead off hitter although it probably won’t be in Wrigley uniform until 2012 at the earliest. He might develop some occasional power but his speed and aggressive baserunning nature fits the mold. Naturally he would have to develop plate discipline et cetera.
I think Castro fits better as a #2 hitter, someone who appears to be able to spray the ball up the middle to right field, he should develop some power 15-20 HR’s a year and might fit into the quintessential La Russa #2 hitter.
Jackson might develop into another 20-30 HR hitter with speed and athleticism seems to have high ceiling. And of course we are hoping that Colvin grows into a cleanup or #5 power/average hitter.
That leaves Vitters and hopefully a surprise like LaMathieu who might be interesting as the real 3B prospect. It would mean moving Vitters to 1B where someone like Burke might ascend to the other corner OF spot.
To me possibly having three shortstop’s as the 3B-SS-2B and a glove that played 3B at 1B engineer an infield defense of some significance. If Burke and Jackson also ascend with Colvin the outfield defense could also be a strength. This kind of prospect flow also appears to be quite athletic, fast and maybe not 40 HR oriented but a projected lineup with many 15-25 HR hitting types.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
LeMahieu
would have to seriously improve his offense for me to be okay with him at 3rd. Right now, he’s a singles hitter who might occasionally luck into some gap doubles, and on a blue moon, get a HR.
Burke has a long ways to go in regards to consistency.
I think that Burke making the bigs
is looking more and more optimistic at this point. He has some issues to fix right now. Hope that he can get it figured out, but his clock is ticking.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
just curious why you feel that way
he hasn’t exactly had an inspiring season.
I dunno if Castro will ever have that many HRs though he sure has more power
than our current bloop single threat. Guess I can hope. I sure don’t care one bit how LaRussa would use him.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jun 22, 2010 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions
i know some folks
that are more in tune with this scouting, tools, swings, wrist explosion, and what not, and they swear that they feel like if Castro isn’t a 20 HR hitter in his prime, that they will be stunned.
I’m not that optimistic, but I can dream.
Jackson is only 21
and his career OBP in the minors is .412. Tell me that his 20% K rate would preclude his choice as a leadoff man.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
it wouldn't preclude him
first off, i am a huge fan of jackson. i was one of the few on here that liked the pick when it was made last year. that said, would you rather have jackson develop power and become a middle of the order hitter, or have him focus on his discipline and be a top of the order hitter?
beyond that, no, i tend not to think a guy that K’s 20+% of the time is ideal for the leadoff role. It doesn’t preclude him, but it’s far from ideal.
Like you
I was pleased with his selection. Similar background as Colvin. Good tools, played at big time college, lefty and good size. The question I have is…..Why can’t power hitters develop discipline? Pujols certainly has both. I want our players to aspire for greatness, not merely settle for being a niche type player.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
Your sentiment is exactly correct, its what makes
a player go from being a one or two year wonder into a Ramirez (bad year I know to use that). Though I wouldn’t use Pujols as an example of that…he’s just superhuman besides being the best hitter in the league, can’t expect that of a player.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jun 22, 2010 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't expect it
but I do want my players to aspire to be that good and diverse.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
Unless they cannot become
a Pujols then they should play to their strengths…Juan Pierre will never hit 10 home runs so he shouldnt strive to hit for power, just put the ball in play.
Sipping the Kool-Aid since 1982 - Kinda
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
But that also means
that Pierre can strive to add more power to his game. He doesn’t have to give up on improving that part of his game.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
I agree.
My lineup would be(at least until we make some moves—and lord PLEASE let us do SOMETHING)
Castro SS
Colvin RF
Byrd CF
Lee 1B
Soto C
Soriano LF
Fontenot 2B
Ramirez 3B(if he must be in there)
I don’t see it happening. I don’t believe Castro is a true leadoff though. I think he, if Hak Ju Lee ever makes it, will hit second and play second base.
Just to say for every sucessful rookie leadoff there are plenty of failures.
Also, it seems like most people have Castro moving to second, if Hak Ju Lee makes it to the majors. Don’t know why, just saw it. If we go by OBP % I say Soto. But, I guess it wouldn’t hurt to put Castro first, not like he’s gonna be any worse than those already batting there.
by infinityzero.systemerror on Jun 20, 2010 4:23 AM CDT up reply actions
I would flip Sori and Castro in your lineup
and put Soto in the three slot and slide everyone else down…also hopefully Ramirez can return to his former self on Wednesday.
Sipping the Kool-Aid since 1982 - Kinda
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
Answer to question posed in your headline
No. In fact, he may never be “ready” for that. I suspect as he gets older, he’ll become a good #2 hitter.
I think people sometimes forget he’s only 20 years old.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Henderson was 20
when he hit the majors. But my question is….Why do you think he may never be ready or even passably ready now? Who is a better choice on this team?
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
There really isn't one, but...
… I’d like to see Castro get more experience before he does that.
FWIW, I don’t see Castro as a superstar, as Rickey Henderson was. A solid regular player? Sure. But he doesn’t have extraordinary speed, and he might have midrange power as he gets older. Think Edgar Renteria.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
We can all debate Castro's
future. But right now we must make a decision about our leadoff hitter, So if you agree that there isn’t a better choice right now, isn’t it incumbent that we try him out at #1? Only then can we know for certain if he’s capable.
The way this season is going allows us to try different things that would have appeared too risky if we were in the thick of a pennant race. And certainly everyone but Lou seems to understand that Theriot is a terrible leadoff hitter for this team this year. And Fukudome isn’t much better,
The worst thing we can do is to do nothing. Let’s think outside the box and be proactive,
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
Except I don't agree there isn't better choice
Fontenot, Soriano and Fukudome are better right now to me.
In the past 28 days, Castro’s line is .203 / .253 / .241. He needs the pressure off of him.
It’s still deck chairs on the Titanic but I wouldn’t put Castro there.
ok so damn the torpedos and full speed ahead?
Screw with a rookie that has a chance to be an excellent hitter in the future by asking to to try to become something he never has been, a leadoff hitter? If Castro was 26 and had the same prospect status as Colvin I would say go for it, but right now I want Castro hitting in the 8 hole so that in 3-5 years when the Cubs have retooled he can be slotted where his skills will allow…no screwing with a players development.
Sipping the Kool-Aid since 1982 - Kinda
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
That's an assumption
not a conclusion. I showed a number of guys who entered the majors right at the top of the lineup and none of them had a problem with being a leadoff man. Castro isn’t a China doll that needs to be babied. We have enough veterans that fit that description.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
where did he hit in the minors?
if you can show me that he hit leadoff more than not then I will concede your point and join the Castro for Leadoff bandwagon.
Sipping the Kool-Aid since 1982 - Kinda
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
All I could find
were the stats from 2008-2009 and he had 138 AB as leadoff. However, it must be noted that he played with Tony Campana for most of the time who is an obvious leadoff man.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
Count me in with the Soriano to leadoff crowd
It worked. Sometimes, things work for no reason. It’s best not to mess with them.
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
Absolutely.
Listen there are a very few elite true lead off hitters. We aren’t lucky enough to have that. Compound that with the idea leadoff hitters are only important 162 at bats a year and it makes a lot of sense. Stop obsessing over the idea of having a lead off guy fans.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
by cubswynn on Jun 20, 2010 1:05 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
The one thing I liked about Soriano leading off
is that, during his infamous hot streaks, you had a good chance to be up 1-0 on the road after the first AB.
"One of the things I like about baseball is that between innings you can go to the restroom.'' ~Manny Acta.
Yeah, I think everyone misses that.
Not sure I agree with it…but seeing the parade of guys through the position that seem very unsuited for it, I’m getting to the point I’d say its better than the alternatives. Still, Sori is having a good season batting in the middle and I hate messing with that.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jun 20, 2010 7:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Can you imagine
How much better of a season he might even be having batting in a spot he’s “most comfortable” in?
Look at the numbers
Sori has a .342 OBP and .521 SLG. Castro has .323 OBP and .350 SLG. Do you really think it’s a good idea for a few points of OBP to move our best RBI guy into the leadoff position where he won’t have nearly the number of men on base ahead of him? And why won’t Castro have a higher OBP when he isn’t hitting ahead of the pitcher?
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
Actually our problem is
Nobody gets on base enough for Soriano no matter where he hits.
My point was, the team did better when he was in leadoff. There is no rhyme or reason to it but they did. Soriano can be slumping but the team would still win.
Soriano injured gave the team a bad record. In fact, Cubs fell out of contention when Soriano was moved out of leadoff.
Again, I have no explanations for anything other than the fact, when Soriano is in leadoff the Cubs win. Plain and simple.
In 2009
which was the tear he was moved from 1st to 6th, they were 2 under ,500 when he batted 1st and 4 over ,500 when he batted 6th, So much for the mythical winning record of a leadoff Soriano. And while we were in the playoffs in 07 and 08, if you look at the OPS of our other lineup players, I think you can make a case that we were a much better team then, While he was a part of our success, I can see the same if not better record batting him with men on base.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
I fully agree
But as I said before, him leading off just seemed to “work”. I know he’s not being moved and he’s had a good year so it’s a moot point.
But I don’t want to read articles where Piniella said he’s out of ideas because putting Soriano in leadoff as an experiment is an option.
Of course Lou has options
Only people who have given up talk like that. It also sends a bad message to the players that there is no hope. Do Cub fans really deserve a manager with over 90 games left in the season with that type leadership?
Lou, if you can’t do anything, step aside and let a real man do your job?
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
And there were seldom
men on base. Sluggers bat somewhere in the middle for good reason. You want men on base ahead of them. This blog had millions of people demanding we move Sori out of the leadoff position. Now some of those seem to feel he belongs there. History be damned, now he’s the answer.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
I always liked Sori
in the leadoff spot…
Sipping the Kool-Aid since 1982 - Kinda
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
To be clear, I did say
“the one thing I liked about Soriano leading off” for a reason. That was really the only thing I liked about him leading off.
"One of the things I like about baseball is that between innings you can go to the restroom.'' ~Manny Acta.
The cubs won when Soriano was in leadoff
I don’t understand why and how but they did.
I’d put him back there and see if the team can turn itself around.
If Piniella is out of answers, here’s a new idea for him!
That's not a new idea.
That’s an idea that everyone opposed and was finally dismissed as a bad option.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
Everyone opposed it, yes. It was a bad idea, yes.
But when you’re 7 games under .500 in late June and on the verge of waving the white flag for the season, insane ideas start to look sane. And crazy ideas get considered more than they normally would. Soriano batting leadoff always drove me nuts. But they won two division titles with him batting leadoff. They way things are going this year, I’m open to any lineup tinkering at this point. Soriano could not possibly be worse at the top than Theriot and Fukudome have been.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
You're right about the season
and Piniella is not one to think outside the box. But if we’re thinking outside the box, why not try a guy like Castro at leadoff rather than Soriano? As you said, it couldn’t get worse.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
While I agree with you completely about the season,
That thinking outside the box thing is an old argument. Not worth starting again.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jun 22, 2010 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Here is why I dont like Castro batting leadoff
found the game by game splits here
June – .196/.277/.250 – yes his slugging for June is lower than his OBP – 0 for 1 in the SB department
LAst ten games – 7/32 – .218
With only 1 SB since being called up and 3 extra base hits in June and only 7 since being called up it seems possibly the 2 hole might be a good spot for him to be right now so he gets a few more pitches, althought his .196 average this month isnt looking too good and a pitcher might want to face him over Z…need to see if he can adjust and get up to a .275 average and get the OBP over .300…
Sipping the Kool-Aid since 1982 - Kinda
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
FYI
his OBP is .323 and his SB is low because he’s been hitting in front of the pitcher and Lee. Last 7 days .263/.375. Last 14 days .250/.326.
A rookie is typically going to have to make adjustments and go through swings of good and bad. But unless we want to take one of our few sluggers out of the middle of the lineup, he’s the best option, IMHO.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
that is why
I dont want to see him in the #1 slot – let him make the adjustments that he needs to to return to the level of success that he was having in AA then I think you could try him for the leadoff position – you are correct, I was wrong about his OBP needing to get above .300 – I guess the larger point that I was trying to make is that I want to see him make the adjustments and steal more before I try him in the leadoff spot and hopefully he has made those adjustments and that is why his BA and OBP are increasing…
To me being a leadoff hitter is more than just seeing plenty of pitches, it is getting on base and running, which castro did in the minors with a reasonable amount of success but lets see if he can start to do that in the Major Leagues before throwing him
Sipping the Kool-Aid since 1982 - Kinda
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
his SB is also low
because he’s not an adept base-stealer yet
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Jun 22, 2010 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions
That's not the case
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
Watching him run.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
I just don't see him having that much speed.
Above average? Yes. Fast enough to steal 40-50 bases a year? No.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I never claimed
he was a 50 SB guy. However, he is certainly fast enough to get 25-30 a year. It’s not only top end speed. It’s also reading pitchers. Typically the Cubs have had poor base stealers. I’d get a quality 1st base coach who has had success on the bases and let him help improve their reads every time they are on first.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
Maybe.
I’d rather see him develop mid-range power.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Why do you feel
it is either or?
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
Because I don't see him with the kind of speed you do.
Also, obviously, speed goes as you get older. Power can be developed. I think some of us forget at times that Castro is only 20.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
right now
The Cubs system is solid in regards to base running. Dernier (I think it’s Dernier) does a good job working with the kids. Castro, for one reason or another, simply isn’t an adept base runner, and it’s hard to imagine him improving significantly. Doesn’t mean he can’t steal 25. He probably could, but typically, base running quality is also viewed through the prism of success rate, and Castro will have his issues there.
Over time, as he physically matures, and with his approach, he’ll probably run less. It isn’t really either/or, it’s more a byproduct of the fact that, if he does add power, asking him to expend energy base running wouldn’t really be a positive move.
With due respect
how can you claim the organization is solid in base running? Daily we see base running blunders on the major league level. Last night Soriano doubled on a routine fly ball.
And Castro’s SB% of about 70 is certainly adequate. How can you insist he isn’t an adequate base runner? Frankly I can’t understand anyone making broad judgments about his lack of skills on the bases when he’s mostly had a collar put on him due to Lou’s general unwillingness to run and his place in the batting order in front of the pitcher or Lee.
Finally, I am amazed you feel that being a good base runner would cause him to expend too much energy to the point of diminishing his power. Good god, it’s only 90 lousy feet between bases and he probably won’t be on base more than twice a game. If his energy level is that low, let’s dump him now. .
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
scouts
have lauded his speed, but noted he doesn’t get good jumps and thus has struggled as a base-stealer
just going off the scouting reports i’ve read
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Jun 22, 2010 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions
He's on the exact wrong team to learn that skill.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jun 22, 2010 5:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Exactly
He has good speed but it’s unrefined. I’ve said for years that the Cubs have a horrible record developing base runners. Too many in the organization still feel that we’re a HR club that shouldn’t take chances on the bases. Yet we’ve seen team after team with good base running skills embarrass us in trying to hold them down.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
I'd vote for Colvin and Byrd at leadoff
Get Kosuke and Fontenot in there at #2 sometimes vs. righties. Baker vs. lefties.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
The Cubs power
is way down this year. Do we really want to take two of our best sluggers out of the middle and waste their RBI opportunities with fewer men on base? Castro and Byrd have OBP of around .364. Castro is .323. Personally I believe his OBP will go up not having to bat in front of the pitcher. With this season falling apart, I can’t see any reason not to give him a try at leadoff. We just flip him and Theriot and see what happens. It’s not like we’re destroying the push for the playoffs.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
Leadoff hitters...
…and the Cubs have not mixed since the end of 2003.
The biggest question for me, will Ricketts fire Hendry after this year and hire a guy who understands the importance of the top of the order?
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
What I want to know
is why the Cubs abandoned Juan Pierre – was it because of Pie? I LOVE his type as a leadoff hitter – fast, stolen bases, and his 162 game average he has 23 2b’s and if you combine that with his 53 sb in a year that translates into (at least for me) 40 doubles – not bad from your leadoff spot, plus it distracts the pitcher which leads to success in the 2, 3, 4 holes…
Sipping the Kool-Aid since 1982 - Kinda
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
Ugh.
Pierre was an awful leadoff hitter. Never walked; in his year as Cubs leadoff hitter he had a .330 OBA. He had 32 doubles, 13 triples, 3 HR and 58 stolen bases, but only 32 walks. That means he reached scoring position under his own power 106 times — in 750 plate appearances. That’s not very good. A good leadoff hitter ought to have an OBA at least 50 points higher, and draw 80-90 walks a year.
That “distraction” is overrated, especially if you’re not on base. You can’t steal first base. One of the reasons the White Sox had struggled until recently, is that Pierre had a .304 OBA until the end of May. His .347 OBA this month is one of the reasons the Sox have won more games. But even that’s not high enough.
As MPH73 notes, the Cubs have not had a really good leadoff hitter since Kenny Lofton. Yes, Lofton stole bases. But he also had a high OBA — .381 in his 56 games as a Cub.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Ok
so basically the limited number of walks…thank you! I still like him…
Sipping the Kool-Aid since 1982 - Kinda
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
You have the Dusty Baker attitude toward leadoff men.
That has been proven over and over and over and over to not work.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Juan Pierre was definitely a bust for us and not a good leadoff hitter.
But I don’t get the Kenny Lofton stuff as much as everyone does here. Yes, he did a great job for us, yes he helped us get a division…but he was a good leadoff hitter for Cleveland, he only was on the team for 50 some games in his career. Guess it’s just semantics I suppose, but counting him as one of our leadoff men seems a little of a stretch for me for a rental.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jun 22, 2010 8:52 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
What Lofton did was simple....
….the dude got on base and was a legit threat to steal. This equals pressure on the opposing pitcher right out of the chute. When you added in Gruds back in 03, you had a 2nd hitter who had a clue and complimented what a good leadoff hitter could do for you.
All of this means making a pitchers life difficult which means he makes more mistakes to your 3,4 and 5 hitters. We saw this in 03 and the 84 team had this down pat with Denier and Sandburg. When you are solid in the one and two holes, it makes everybody else in the lineup better.
When you look at other teams who go deep in the playoffs, they all have this same top of the order ingrediant (which was abscent from the 07 and 08 clubs and is most important in the playoffs). Why or why Hendry did not make this more of a priority years ago, is beyond explanation.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I agree with everyone that Lofton was a good leadoff hitter
and so was Dernier with the Daily Double. I would just say and I know its semantics, that Dernier on the team for long enough to be called a Cub and Lofton was just a rental. I very much agree a genuine leadoff hitter helps and the Cubs have not had a good one in a very long time.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jun 22, 2010 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions
My main point...
…is even if you have a lot of star power in your lineup (07 and 08), you can become easily exposed against better pitchers and better teams (especially come playoff time), it you don’t have right guys at the top.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Agreed.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jun 22, 2010 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Lofton was a rental because team management wasn't bright enough to keep him
He was allowed to walk as a FA and signed for the massive sum of $1M for a one-year deal for 2004. He would have stayed, but the Cubs sent him on his way. His replacement was Corey Patterson swinging at balls in the dirt. And the #1 spot in the lineup has been a black hole ever since.
Yes, Lofton was an important part of the 2003 surge. And, yes, letting him go was part of the 2004 disappointment.
That's definitely true. Keeping him a year or two would have been good.
Especially when you compare him to how Corey Patterson turned out. 1Mil was definitely a steal for him the next year. Yet another wonderful move.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jun 23, 2010 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions
athough
with his low walk number is the low number of K’s…even up for his career and since 2006 his 162 game average is in the 30’s…
Sipping the Kool-Aid since 1982 - Kinda
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
Low Ks ... so what?
what matters is OBP and Pierre has not been a good OBP guy. Whether he grounds out, flies out or strikes out, he makes too many outs.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jun 22, 2010 7:58 AM CDT up reply actions
That's because he grounds into a 4-3 like 65% of his plate appearances.
A Pierre at-bat with men on base is overwhelmingly likely to result in a chopper on the infield, with a runner at first forced out at second, or a runner on 2nd or 3rd stranded.
Why do we care if he strikes out or grounds into a 4-3? His low K rate means very little — he’s not getting on base either way.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Yep because he's not walking there either.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jun 22, 2010 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions
That’s because he grounds into a 4-3 like 65% of his plate appearances.
at first i thought you talking about aaron miles
by jesus christos on Jun 22, 2010 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions
They abandoned Pierre because he was a horrific leadoff hitter.
He couldn’t get on base, could not drive in a runner from second (difficult when your entire game is pounding the ball into the dirt and trying to beat out high hoppers), and repeatedly led the league in outs made.
Also he was a terrible outfielder. And he couldn’t throw.
His contract was up at the end of his only Cub year – the epically horrible 2006 – and the Cubs couldn’t run the other direction fast enough.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
It was painful to me to see him excel for LA when the Manny was out for female problems.
Course he didn’t continue it as could be expected, but still pissed me off lol.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jun 22, 2010 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions
Yup - suddenly he was getting on base at a .350 clip for a month.
Of course, he was still a terrible OF. But they hid him in LF.
Then, in his 2nd month with Manny out, his OBP fell to .301…. and then LA ran him out of town at the first opportunity, cost be damned.
But yes, for that moment when he suddenly looked like a viable MLB player, I was equally pained.
The thing that annoyed me most about Pierre was that he was categorically unable to drive in a runner from 2nd, and incredibly unlikely to drive in a runner from 3B. His career high for sac flies is 3. In the last 6 years he has had 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, and 2.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
He was horrid to watch as our leadoff hitter.
I think Al said it best to me though, you can’t steal first. All that speed and nothing to show for it. Just teased you and made paying for him even worse.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jun 22, 2010 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions
The worst thing about Pierre....
is IIRC, he got a leadoff double or triple in his first Cubs at bat on Opening Day, then basically was not on base again until about June. For most of April and May, he just kind of took up space on the field. Then, once the Cubs were effectively out of the race, he starting hitting at about a .450 clip, and I think ended up with close to 200 hits, all of them meaningless since he didn’t start hitting until it was too late. Ramirez, I think, did the same thing that year. God, that was an awful year.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
That's exactly my memory of Pierre.
I was actually shocked when I looked back and saw what his numbers were for the season. Knowing how horrible he was when we needed him, I think it pissed me off to see how he turned it around some at the end and padded his numbers, as awful as they still were. I sure wasn’t paying attention to numbers at the end.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jun 22, 2010 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions
He made 532 outs that year.
He was just horrible at baseball for us.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
And at-bats.
He is the only player to have a 200-hit season and not hit over .300 — he hit .292. That’s pathetic.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
most pathetic of all
his pathetic OBP. A leadoff hitter with 200 or more hits should have a much better OBP than .330! He may not be a terrible leadoff hitter, but he is definitely not a good one.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jun 25, 2010 8:26 AM CDT up reply actions
The biggest disappointment for me....
in a season already filled with disappointment and frustration, is that Theriot never developed into the leadoff hitter we all thought he could be back in ‘07 and ’08. Remember how good he hit in the leadoff spot when Soriano pulled a hamstring in ’07 I think it was? On the occasional instances where he did bat leadoff, he looked like a natural with the way he could slap the ball to the opposite field. He never had great speed, but he could at least keep the pitcher honest when he got on base. He never was the most patient hitter in the league, but he wasn’t just a guess-hitting hack either. Always seemed like a career leadoff man to me. Huge, huge disappointment.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
Matt Szczur
Am I the only one with the guilty pleasure of skipping all the “ifs” (if he signs, if he keeps up his obp through the minors, if the cubs have a place in CF for him, if he learns to read pitchers well) and imagining him as the Cubs leadoff hitter?
High OBP and 80 speed?
Puts a smile on my face every time!
2011 can't get here soon enough.
by Castro Por Presidente on Jun 22, 2010 4:33 PM CDT reply actions
Tyler Colvin
I said it before, we need guys to set the table and that get on base. I see him in the middle of the lineup when Castro eventually moves in to the lead off hole, sometime next year. He’s a power lefty, but right now, being in the lead off hole would be the best for the team. Of course, our manager thinks otherwise
by braziliancubsfan on Jun 22, 2010 5:12 PM CDT reply actions
No!
I love Colvin but he strikes out too much for a leadoff hitter.
"Lou Piniella's been a great manager for a long time and I stand by him completely"
by Doggie Stalker on Jun 23, 2010 7:52 AM CDT up reply actions
and that matters how? OBP matters not K rate.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jun 23, 2010 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions
This debate is gonna go on forever about the leadoff hitter.
We just don’t have anyone that fits in it right now. Castro could be in the future …but isn’t right now. There’s no one on the team that’s right for it. It may end up with Lou (or hopefully someone else) continuing to switch guys around until he either is happy enough with his pet player Riot or finds the guy whom he thinks sucks less.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jun 23, 2010 9:27 AM CDT up reply actions
K Rate doesn't matter if he walks
I’m not saying Colvin is a leadoff hitter but the K-Rate doesn’t matter to me.
Adam Dunn strikes out a lot but also walks a lot. While he isn’t a leadoff hitter, I’m fine with a leadoff hitter that K’s if he also takes pitches. Theriot’s problem is that he doesn’t take pitches.
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