Fangraphs: What The Cubs Must Do

I like how this author has the balls to suggest that the Cubs trade Carlos Marmol. It's an awesome idea, only if the Cubs are able to get a huge prospect in return.

"Like Carlos Zambrano, I have reached my boiling point with the Cubs organization. There have been worse seasons than this one, but rarely has one seemed this disappointing."

almost 2 years ago IowaCubs- 21 comments 0 recs |

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I can't agree with this math

Trading Fukudome would mean eating salary in 2011, but if that means acquiring a decent prospect, it’s worth it.

So a decent prospect is now worth up to $13.5MM, Fukudome’s salary in 2011? Half of that? What’s a decent prospect?

I would trade Lee. In the current market, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be signed as a free agent after this season, especially if the draft compensation is prohibitive to his next team. Ask Jermaine Dye.

"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas

by RiskyBusiness on Jun 29, 2010 11:28 AM CDT reply actions

Trading Lee

has been discussed in detail – if we dont trade him, offer arbitration we either get a decent 1b for next year (when we dont have one) or we get a couple draft picks…do not trade him…his value isnt worth what we can get by not trading him,

Sipping the Kool-Aid since 1982 - Kinda
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119

by hansman1982 on Jun 29, 2010 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions

Arbitration??

To a 35 year old first baseman who is making $13MM this season?? And not having a good offensive season? If the cubs offer Lee arbitration, he would accept it and make at least the $13MM that he is making this year. After seeing Jermaine Dye not get any offers, Lee would jump at arbitration.

I’ll take the one in my hand vs. the two in the bush.

"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas

by RiskyBusiness on Jun 29, 2010 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions

do we have to offer the 13 mil?

I think if we put it in front of a 3rd party I doubt he is going to get that kind of money after showing declines for 2 years in a row. Again, worst case scenario we pay for an ok 1st baseman for next year, when we dont have one anyway and he may get hot and his trade value could increase, certaintly not going to get lower than it is now.

Sipping the Kool-Aid since 1982 - Kinda
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119

by hansman1982 on Jun 30, 2010 5:43 AM CDT up reply actions

I think that is the problem with the Arbitration salary engine

I don’t think teams can offer salary arbitration at below a player’s last season’s salary. And the salary amount is either the team’s low offer or the player’s high offer.

This is what happened to Grace after the 2000 season. He wanted $6MM, the Cubs didn’t want to pay more than $5.5MM (I think), and the did not offer arbitration. Grace signed with the D-backs for $3MM.

"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas

by RiskyBusiness on Jun 30, 2010 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions

Lee may not be a Type A.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Jun 29, 2010 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions

He's not Type A right now...

that means his value is even less to someone looking to trade.

Proud recipient of a hot dog shot from the Iowa Cubs hot dog gun.

by IowaCubs- on Jun 29, 2010 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions

if I understand correctly

we still get draft picks if he is a B just not first rounders

Sipping the Kool-Aid since 1982 - Kinda
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119

by hansman1982 on Jun 30, 2010 5:43 AM CDT up reply actions

2004 was more disappointing.

So was 2008, at the end.

I thought this team could contend, but everything would have to go right for that to happen.

Clearly, everything has gone wrong.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jun 29, 2010 11:55 AM CDT reply actions

This team could be considered more disappointing than either of those teams for the reason the author cites: The window of opportunity with the current personnel is/has closed.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Jun 29, 2010 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree with Al though

Those years had higher expectations than this year. I was expecting a .500 team this year. Some of my reasons were a little different than reality (ex. I expect Silva to be awful) but many of my reasons have come true.

by rlpete on Jun 29, 2010 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions

agreed.....and if they were just .500

…they would be in it the thick of it. I think that is what makes it so frustrating, they just have to be average to have a shot at the postseason and we all know once you get in, anything can happen.

by JB 23 on Jun 29, 2010 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions

How about...

I read the OP’s referenced article after doing some research on second base possibilities and seeing the Fangraphs article on what Colorado should do. One of the suggestions was to trade for Dan Uggla. I’m thinking I really love this idea for the Cubs.
With Hanley and Josh Johnson getting an additional 4 million each next year, and Uggla up for arbitration again, this might be a great time to obtain him and I think he’d be perfect to fill the 2B chasm for us.

by John916 on Jun 29, 2010 2:07 PM CDT reply actions

Pass on Uggla

He is already 30 years old and is pretty bad defensively. I doubt that he is able to stick at 2B beyond 2012. If you have to put him at 3B or 1B he really is basically an average to slightly above average player. Not to mention that the Cubs are strongest up the middle in the farm system as far as positional players. Flaherty, Lee and Lemahiue (sp!) are all fairly decent prospects. I don’t see the Cubs contending in 2011 or 2012, so I think that it doesn’t make alot of sense to trade for Uggla now.

If you want to take a 2B prospect from outside I would be far more interested in making a run at Rickie Weeks when he enters free agency after 2011. By that time we would have a much better idea if any of our own 2B prospects are legit MLB starters and we will be closer to contending.

by JSB on Jun 29, 2010 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions

I did like this quote....

…its a swipe, but that is the perception right now for sure.

Ownership groups are not remembered for the sponsors they land, or the renovations to bathrooms they finance. The Ricketts family must be decisive, and quickly, to salvage something from their inherited regime, and to ensure some eventual success.

by JB 23 on Jun 29, 2010 2:51 PM CDT reply actions

I'm most intrigued by the idea of trading Marmol.

I’ve thought, for years, that Marmol will one day have arm problems. If I’m right, trading him now would mean a peak return.

I also wondered why the BP story didn’t suggest trading Silva?

by elgato on Jun 29, 2010 3:46 PM CDT reply actions

I love the article

I dont disagree with any of his moves. Unless Ramirez heats up big time between now and July 31 he isnt going to be tradeable – I think everyone is waiting to see the long term effects of last years injury (decrease in durability which was suspect to begin with).

I like the idea of keeping Lee – DO NOT offer him a contract but rather go the arbitration route – if he accepts that gives us a year to clear out some of the crap and maybe build towards a big 2011 FA signing at 1st base or seeing what develops with what we have – never know when Castillo might break out in the minors and we can move Soto to 1b.

I feel that what the Cubs need to do is tread water for the remainder of this year, sell the guys who are doing really well (Byrd, Marmol, Silva, Lilly…crap I have run out of guys doing well), see if we can get anything for the overpaids (Soriano, Fukudome, Ramirez, Zambrano) and just free up salary for 2012 if possible. We have a great bunch of prospects that are developing and if you add in one or two from trades/draft picks we might be able to field a young, but productive roster for 2012.

As much as it is going to hurt we just need to give up on the idea of the Cubs contending for a couple of years and restore the organization and retool it so that we are not dependent on nearly every position being a free agent signing. I would like to see Hendry stay on as perhaps a Director of Talent Acquisition (i.e. Trade guru) as he has done well there, yes done well, you dont get lucky as many times as he has.

I am hoping that Ricketts gets this and is implementing this strategy, business and sports isnt about knee-jerk reactions but rather using calculated moves and sound decisioning to create and build upon success.

Sipping the Kool-Aid since 1982 - Kinda
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119

by hansman1982 on Jun 29, 2010 4:34 PM CDT reply actions

premise was good

tone was poor (in my opinion)

instead of a calm and rational approach to the rebuild, the author took a rather emotional run at writing the article. Fire everyone, gut the club, etc

fire tim wilken? Really??? We just now have a farm system which he’s played a very large part of and you want to get rid of him?

Trade Fukudome to get a good prospect? Are you not aware of the economic situation in MLB? Nobody wants Fukudome, unless we pay the whole thing and even then… they aren’t giving up a good prospect for league average production

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jun 30, 2010 8:28 AM CDT reply actions

Firing Tim Wilken

Tim Wilken shouldn’t be fired. But, if you identify a GM candidate and he doesn’t want to work with Wilken, then Wilken goes. I like what Wilken has done with the system, but I still think we are a little light on high-ceiling prospects.

by JSB on Jun 30, 2010 8:42 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions