The Second Third Of The Season Begins: Cubs vs. Astros Preview, Saturday 6/5, 6:05 CT
The first third of the 2010 season is in the books for the Cubs with a pretty awful record: 24-30, with the last four losses being consecutive. I could post a whole buncha stuff here about comebacks, winning streaks, yada yada, but how much of it are you going to believe?
The bottom line is: I still think this team is pretty good, way better than their record. They came back from a bigger deficit later in the year in 2007. But they had better start showing results on the field soon, or changes will have to come.
That's really about it. Win, please. It's been a week since the last win. It's getting hard to remember.
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Roy Oswalt threw seven shutout innings against the Cubs at Wrigley Field on April 17, one of his three wins this year. The Astros bullpen (well, Brandon Lyon) nearly blew that game, too. Current Cubs have hit 11 HR in 292 AB off Oswalt. Now, do you really think I posted that stat thinking someone would hit one tonight? Just wishin' and hopin'.
Ryan Dempster left the game on April 18 at Wrigley Field having allowed no runs and nursing a 2-0 lead. In one of his few bad outings this year, Carlos Marmol allowed a Dempster baserunner to score and then blew the lead with one out in the ninth; the Cubs lost in 10. Current Astros are hitting .300 (65-for-217) against Dempster with eight HR. Clearly, we're doomed.
Cubs lineup via tweet from Carrie:
2b riot, rf colvin, 1b lee, cf byrd, 3b ramy, lf sori, ss castro, c hill, p demp
Astros lineup in this tweet from Astros beat writer Alyson Footer. You'll have to click on the Twitpic to see it (it's a photo of the lineup board).
Today's game is on CSN Chicago and FSN Houston. Here is the complete MLB.com Mediacenter for today.
Baseball-reference.com game preview
Please visit our SB Nation Astros site The Crawfish Boxes.
Today's first pitch thread will be up at 6 pm CDT, and the overflows will post at 7, 8 and 8:45 pm CDT.
Discuss amongst yourselves.
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Comments
Getting harder and harder to keep the faith, but
the Cubs can still make a comeback and I for one wouldn’t be surprise if they get on a roll soon.
Ramirez isn't batting 4th today...
…yay…..
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
Yeah, great.
Fifth is such a huge difference. He should be hitting “DL”.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
If he isn't actually hurt though...
there is no reason not to play him and Lee. The Cubs won’t compete if they aren’t playing well anyway (we have no replacements for their potential production). The Cubs only viable option is to keep playing them in the hopes they get out of their dismal funk. Benching quite obviously isn’t going to make them hit better (since they literally wouldn’t be hitting).
I suppose we could bat them lower in the order of course, though in the scheme of things, batting order really doesn’t have much impact on wins/losses anyway…
It’s aggravating as all get out, but we just have to keep trudging them out them and hoping they remember what hitting means.
by CubsWin!Oregon on Jun 5, 2010 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think that's exactly what Lou's doing
Whoever replaces them may be better, but won’t be leading this team to the playoffs. Lou’s going down with the ship.
I just wish...
he’d stop doing moronic things around the periphery liking taking a high OBP guy like Soto out of the lineup. (The musical chairs batting order is also obnoxious to me as fan, but I suppose it may not matter terribly to the players).
by CubsWin!Oregon on Jun 5, 2010 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions
we have no replacements for their potential production
What we do have, however, is a replacement for Ramirez’s current production. That replacement is putting up a .935 OPS at Des Moines in 22 games. Does Chad Tracy propel the Cubs to the next level? Probably not, but he would likely be more entertaining to watch than the sudden decline of Aramis Ramirez.
I can’t take it anymore, I tells ya!
"One of the things I like about baseball is that between innings you can go to the restroom.'' ~Manny Acta.
"Does Chad Tracy propel the Cubs to the next level? Probably not..."
But I’d say chances of Tracy propelling us are better than a Rami hitting .150
Danwood, consider this:
Let’s say you have the choice between a really hot girl and a really really average looking girl. The really hot girl just got out of a break-up and that’s all she wants to talk about—so she isn’t that fun to be around right now. But you know once she forgets about it, it will be great—she’ll take you to your favorite movies and restaurants and you’ll get some every night!
Then there’s the really average looking girl who isn’t that much fun to be around, but is better than the hot girl right now. You spend time together and go to movies like Transformers 2 (which she thinks is great). She talks about her dog all the time and makes you take her to Applebees. It’s not hearing about her ex-boyfriend, but it’s not really that fun. You know there is no hope for this relationship, but you’re lonely and you need somebody.
Who do you choose?
by mic on Jun 5, 2010 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions
For tonight or for life?
Things work out best for those that make the best out of the way things work out - Coach Wooden
mic, I hope you answer this because it gets to the heart of the issue here
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Average looking girls are better in bed.
Trust me.
"One of the things I like about baseball is that between innings you can go to the restroom.'' ~Manny Acta.
@goodie 1969
Pretty men have little weewees
If I see one more person cite Chad Tracy's AAA stats...
by mic on Jun 5, 2010 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions
He does have a little bit of a point
Wellington Castillo is hitting .884, Jason Dubois is hitting .885, Brad F-ing Synder is hitting .967. If we are going to go on AAA stats they all might as well be brought up.
by JSB on Jun 5, 2010 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions
a good nickname for Wellington Castillo is
Beef
as in Beef Wellington. Get it?
The 2010 Randy Hundley Fantasy Camp ruled!!!!
None of those players can play 3B, though.
So it’s fair to leave them out of the discussion.
"One of the things I like about baseball is that between innings you can go to the restroom.'' ~Manny Acta.
True
But, those guys can play 1B or C, and the players that we have at those positions aren’t hitting either. The point was that AAA stats for guys in the mid-20s to early 30s are just that, AAA stats. They really give very little indication as to whether that player can be a consistent ML contributor.
by JSB on Jun 5, 2010 9:20 PM CDT up reply actions
No way, at this point have a better chance of catching hot streaks from Tracy and Nady, or Fontenot handling 3rd base
than having Ramirez and Lee find a time machine to send them back to an earlier, more productive time.
The frustrating thing with this stubborn approach of Lou’s is that the Cubs ARE good enough to turn it around WITHOUT Lee and Ramirez just on the strength of their starting pitching, closer, and outfield play.
by Jerry Mumphrey on Jun 5, 2010 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
and if he's not hurt
we can have mlb investigate the Cubs like they are with the Mets and Oliver Perez
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jun 5, 2010 5:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Not giving up
They’re frustrating the crap out of me but 6 games under .500 isn’t the end.
"...but you the living, you're stuck here with the Cubs. So it is ME who feels sorry for you." - Steve Goodman, "A Dying Cub Fan's Last Request"
by HoSs. on Jun 5, 2010 4:13 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
I would take exception with your saying that this team is "pretty good."
I agree with your earlier arguments that the Cubs could still contend (although even that seems less and less likely) because they’re in a rotten division in a weak league. They aren’t very good and, thankfully, neither is most of the competition.
I think this team was "pretty good"
Which fuels the optimism. Since guys like Aramis, Lee, and Z have done it before, fans are waiting for them to do it again. However, all good things must end.
why does lou insist on having theriot lead off
Self-Proclaimed President of the Castro Boobird Face Kicking Club
The Chicago Blackhawks: The only Chicago team worth caring about.
Fixed it for you
why does lou insist on having theriot -lead off- play
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 5, 2010 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions
thats a good question, too
Self-Proclaimed President of the Castro Boobird Face Kicking Club
The Chicago Blackhawks: The only Chicago team worth caring about.
by jesus christos on Jun 5, 2010 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions
a month is a day in the grand scheme of the world...
Self-Proclaimed President of the Castro Boobird Face Kicking Club
The Chicago Blackhawks: The only Chicago team worth caring about.
by jesus christos on Jun 5, 2010 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions
more like a blink
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 5, 2010 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Theriot is still in the majors? Wow. Is he on the Orioles?
"I'm not much of a chemistry guy, you know. Chemistry to me is a pinch-hit double with the bases loaded"--Jim Frey, Chicago Tribune, 1985.
oriots
Self-Proclaimed President of the Castro Boobird Face Kicking Club
The Chicago Blackhawks: The only Chicago team worth caring about.
by jesus christos on Jun 5, 2010 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions
The last BB Theriot took
was on May 1. He’s had 2 RBI since April 30 and he has a BA of .162 leading off the game. Who the hell wouldn’t bat him #1?
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
He was never this impatient
I don’t understand what is wrong with him and Byrd and why they refuse to take a pitch.
by JSB on Jun 5, 2010 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions
He was never this impatient
uh…
Self-Proclaimed President of the Castro Boobird Face Kicking Club
The Chicago Blackhawks: The only Chicago team worth caring about.
by jesus christos on Jun 5, 2010 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Check out his decling walk rates
BB% OBP%
2006 10.7% .412
2007 8.2% .326
2008 11.0% .387
2009 7.5% .343
2010 3.1% .308
Sure, he was never confused for Kevin Youkilis, but he was also never this bad.
by JSB on Jun 5, 2010 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions
last year he managed to get walks
but still grounded out on the first pitch many times
Self-Proclaimed President of the Castro Boobird Face Kicking Club
The Chicago Blackhawks: The only Chicago team worth caring about.
by jesus christos on Jun 5, 2010 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Wasn't this sub-thread all about walks?
His walk percentage is down significantly this year. That was my only point.
by JSB on Jun 5, 2010 5:11 PM CDT up reply actions
gotta see more than 1 pitch
to walk
Things work out best for those that make the best out of the way things work out - Coach Wooden
Sure
But at least those at-bats that did go beyond one pitch he worked a few walks. There is an obvious change in his approach post-2008 though.
by JSB on Jun 5, 2010 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh I agree
I was trying to be amusing. :-P
Things work out best for those that make the best out of the way things work out - Coach Wooden
I would be interested to see his first swing% this year as compared to last year
He jumped from seeing 3.75 pitches/plate appearance and swinging at the first pitch only 23% of the time, to swinging at the first strike 31% of the time and taking 3.68 pitcher/plate appearance.
by JSB on Jun 5, 2010 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions
That was 2008 v. 2009
Would be interested in seeing the 2010 numbers
by JSB on Jun 5, 2010 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions
2010 numbers
3.54 p/PA
32% 1st pitch swinging
His ISO is .028
OPS 60
What’s not to like for $2.6M?
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
Awful
So this year, he is swinging at an even higher % of first-pitch strikes and now his walks have all but disappeared. If we have picked up on this, makes you wonder how he can’t notice the difference between his success in 2008 and 2009/2010.
By the way, where did you find those p/PA and 1st pitch swinging stats?
by JSB on Jun 5, 2010 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions
@JSB
As long as Theriot played shortstop, he could get away with being a slap hitter, because shortstop is the most important defensive position. Trouble is – he is not much of shortstop.
Now that he is at second, he needs to produce runs, so he is swinging for the fences. A low OBP is tolerated from a hitter who bats in runs, but Theriot can’t hit for power. I wonder how long Lou is going to let him disgrace himself. The move to second base has exposed Theriot, and he keeps hoping Castro will get sent down, so he can get back to short.
what does ISO stand for?
Thats a new one to me.
Things work out best for those that make the best out of the way things work out - Coach Wooden
Isolated Power
It measures a hitter’s raw power, in terms of extra bases per AB. Basically instead of a batting average where a hitter gets credit for singles, in ISO you don’t. The formula for ISO = (2B + (3B*2) + (HR*3)) / AB.
For comparison, Pujols ISO last year was .331.
by JSB on Jun 5, 2010 5:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Ah
Pujols is a beast.
Things work out best for those that make the best out of the way things work out - Coach Wooden
No kidding
This year, Soriano is putting up a very respectable .281. It’s really a shame that almost nobody else has been able to pull their own weight, because Sori is really having close to a career year.
by JSB on Jun 5, 2010 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions
No disrespect intended
BUT, can we look at career numbers, esp since joining Cubs? I’m glad Sori’s havin a good yr…history says it ends, soon.
♪The wheels on the lineup go round and round♫
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
As long as Lou
continues to flip Cub fans the Byrd by throwing Lee and Aram in the midst of our lineup, this team will never turn things around. He’s close to the deadline Hendry imposed for getting to .500 and is rapidly heading in the wrong direction.
It seems Piniella is afraid to move Lee and Ramirez out of the middle. Imagine if he did and the team started winning. He’d actually be admitting he was wrong not to have made the move sooner. He’s going down with the ship and taking the hopes and dreams of millions of Cub fans with his foolish pride. He’ll be gone within a week to ten days and we’ll be at least 10 behind and 10 under .500.
The new manager will be instructed to look at the youngsters and the appeal of a new and better future will spike the attendance. The next issue is…..can we trust Hendry to do the deals to get rid of our overpriced baggage and actually bring us some quality prospects into the organization.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
What else would keep attendance up in a team heading to over 90 losses.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
Nobody is paying for that either
The argument was that playing the kids will boost attendance. For the vast majority that go to the games(read fairweather fans) they don’t know the difference between legitimate prospects and roster-filler.
by JSB on Jun 5, 2010 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions
With Castro and Colvin
and Cashner and Jackson and Barney on the roster. at least people will have hope. Staying the course will continue indifference to the losing ways. No, there won’t be lines. But there will be more butts in the seats.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
Sorry, I'm gonna have to disagree with you there
Other than Castro, you’re not talking about any top 25 prospects, which are the only guys who could possibly get the average fan to care. I’m excited about the Cubs prospects as well, but all the average fan sees is a couple of middle relievers and a 4th OF, and another L flag waving high in the wind.
Cub fans notoriously believe
our prospects are among the best. We’re great at PR. Trouble is we’re terrible at producing major league talent that aren’t pitchers. By the time any prospects are brought up we’d be into the last half of the season. I can well see a buzz if the players mentioned above are playing regular.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
people loved scales
Self-Proclaimed President of the Castro Boobird Face Kicking Club
The Chicago Blackhawks: The only Chicago team worth caring about.
by jesus christos on Jun 5, 2010 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions
I have been gone today......Barney is on the roster?
And what did Fontenot do to not play ahead of Theriot again?
@TJ11
No, Barney is not on the roster, but Lou did a dumb thing by saying he was going to bench Theriot, and put Fontenot in. All he did was give him 2 days off , which starters should periodically get, anyway. Theriot has been in the lineup every day, without producing, so now Lou looks like he is making empty threats. If you say you are going to bench someone, you should follow through. The one thing I have noticed is that no matter how much Theriot shits the bed, Brenley and Casper say nothing about it. They are much more critical of other Cubs.
The offense was overshadowed early in the season by Z's bad opening day start blown leads from the bullpen
now that the bullpen hasn’t been a huge story of topic and the starting pitching has been exceptional, the offense is in the middle of attention. Seems just a tad bit like the 09 season. No way you can give up hope, because baseball is a sport that you’ll never be able to predict. Who thought the Padres would be in 1st? (I did!)
by braziliancubsfan on Jun 5, 2010 4:22 PM CDT reply actions
At least we got Colvin
I think we are stuck with Theriot in the leadoff spot for now. I don’t think Lou wants to put Castro or Fontenot up there.
why doesn't Starlin lead off? He's got great speed, and would make the opposing pitchers pay attention to him
advantage hitter
by braziliancubsfan on Jun 5, 2010 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions
thats exactly why hes not in the top of the order
Self-Proclaimed President of the Castro Boobird Face Kicking Club
The Chicago Blackhawks: The only Chicago team worth caring about.
by jesus christos on Jun 5, 2010 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions
The only semi-logical reason
Is they don’t want to put undue pressure on the kid. From a skills standpoint, there is no reason not to.
by JSB on Jun 5, 2010 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions
he certainly can't be worse than fukudome and theriot
and this is the big leagues. You play to win the game
by braziliancubsfan on Jun 5, 2010 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Castro is an ideal guy
to put at the top. Who would do a better job?
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
i was for not having him in the top of the order when he first got called up
but its going on a month now
Self-Proclaimed President of the Castro Boobird Face Kicking Club
The Chicago Blackhawks: The only Chicago team worth caring about.
by jesus christos on Jun 5, 2010 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions
plus, he's one of the few cubs that has been hitting the ball, apart from Sori
but we certainly don’t want to see him in the lineup
by braziliancubsfan on Jun 5, 2010 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think so
At least, Soriano loved it
by braziliancubsfan on Jun 5, 2010 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions
there's probably more pressure on the manager to put the player in that spot
than in the player himself.
by braziliancubsfan on Jun 5, 2010 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Byrd did good in the leadoff spot yesterday why not today?
Byrd
Castro
Colvin
Sori
Lee
Rami
Riot
Hill
Demp
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
Byrd is far from an ideal lead-off hitter too
Byrd’s walk rate is about as bad as Theriot’s. The only difference is he can actually hit. The truth is there is no good option (assuming the Cubs are babying Castro).
by JSB on Jun 5, 2010 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions
@Braziliancubsfan
For now, he is a rookie, and needs to get accustomed to hitting in the big league. I think the eventual plan is for him to bat leadoff.
Caption,...
I refuse to admit their is something wrong with me and I will not sit down or accept instruction . I am just going to tough this out.
Why oh why...
can’t the Cubs get it through their thick heads that OBP is more important than a BA…..It’s not a hard concept for cripes sake.
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. …Serenity now…..
by CubsWin!Oregon on Jun 5, 2010 4:30 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I know the AARDVARK thing is tired
but hey if Lou can do it, then so can I.
AARDVARKS!
"Chicago baseball fans, who are composites of scar tissue and mortifying memories..." - George F. Will
Avatar provided courtesy of AndrewJStone.
Lou's use of Theriot ...
is starting to annoy me more than his use of Ramirez.
Agreed
At least with Ramirez we don’t know what is wrong with him and there isn’t really an alternative to replace his production. With Theriot, he is just continuing his pattern from last year only worse.
by JSB on Jun 5, 2010 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Come on, there are alternatives to Ramirez.
Just like their are alternatives to Zambrano who suddenly can’t throw harder than 90 mph.
by Jerry Mumphrey on Jun 5, 2010 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Who's replacing his production?
Please don’t give me Chad Tracy or Mike Fontentot. Those guys are marginally better than Ramirez right now, but in the long-run you aren’t going anywhere with those guys manning 3rd. Compare with Theriot, where Fontenot is flat-out a better player and really always has been.
by JSB on Jun 5, 2010 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions
I will take marginally batter, but really we're talking about a career .800 OPS for Fontenot which would blow ramirez out of the water right now.
by Jerry Mumphrey on Jun 5, 2010 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions
@Jerrymumphrey
Fontenot can play a decent third base, but is really a middle infielder. I think lots of people are starting to wonder why he sits while Theriot starts. The only thing Theriot can do better is be consistant, but he is consistantly mediocre. Even with his streakiness, Fontenot is clearly the better player. They have known each other since their teens, and now are friends, but Theriot has always known that Fontenot is better than he is, and I think Lou doesn’t know how to handle the situation. If he can’t be objective, perhaps the Cubs need a managert who can.
Anyone look at Houston's lineup card?
I didn’t know they were carrying 13 pitchers! Their bench doesn’t exactly put fear in you either.
by Les Lancaster's Mullet on Jun 5, 2010 5:58 PM CDT reply actions
I've wasted far too many summers...
to think Cubs can “comeback”. Why do we study history? To assure that it doesn’t repeat itself. Our Cubbies have failed to learn that one simple lesson. I will “try” not to pay attn… hard thing tho, after 40+ yrs as a fan… Tho I love the spirit of some optimistic banter, see all words after “comeback”. I’ll always be a cub fan, but the years have taught me to be realistic. This, aint the year. ***sighs*** nor, is “next year”.
Theriot first pitch swinging again!
The baseball experts on this board help me. If swinging at the first pitch is taboo why hasn’t Lou talked to Theriot about it. It appears he pretty much leaves his hitter alone with their aggressiveness.
CORRECT
That is indeed the mgrs j-o-b. If not his, hitting coach. Lou is responsible for both. (as is Jim H) loved lou, now hate him…need to see a Divorce Attny, sigh, just like marriage (tho never suffered thru THAT! :])
Dempster is a nibbler with non-nibbler stuff.
If that makes sense
"How's your mother?"
"She's on her way out."
"We all are. Act accordingly."
Anybody in here?
"Everything has an end, except a sausage, which has two."
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jun 5, 2010 6:54 PM CDT reply actions
The biggest difference between this year and 2007...
is that in 2007 the team was primarily chasing the Brewers, an inferior squad that had gotten pretty lucky early on in the year, while the Cubs had been unlucky. It would be similar to the situation this year if the Cardinals were as bad as they were in ‘07. Unfortunately, that’s not the case.
"You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity...No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball." - Albert Einstein
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jun 5, 2010 8:03 PM CDT reply actions
the analogy would work...
if the Cubs were only chasing the Reds…. Sorry I wasn’t clear there.
"You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity...No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball." - Albert Einstein
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jun 5, 2010 8:04 PM CDT up reply actions

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