Start the Fire Sale Now!
by airweino on Jul 10, 2010 1:26 AM CDT
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PrintAfter watching the Cubs-Dodger game tonight, I think it is clear we must get this season salvaged quickly by starting the fire sale as soon as possible. Get on the horn, Hendry, and start selling of anything to anyone who will take them.
First, since Lou has already said this year is it for him, let's send him to retirement a bit earlier. It will put both him and us fans out of our misery. (I mean, really, Lou, Fontenot at SS tonight?) Let Trammell finish the year off and then go from there. I am still not sold on Ryno taking the reigns, but there is time to figure that out.
Second, begin tearing this team apart since even Pinella thinks we will be sellers! Some places to start:
- Xavier Nady to the Rangers.
- Derrek Lee to the Angels or Giants.
- Ryan Theriot to the Giants or Tigers.
- Mike Fontenot to the Giants or Tigers.
- Ted Lilly to the Mets (and quickly before he loses any more trade value).
- See if Carlos Silva can bring anything useful back given his success this year.
- Pay someone to take Kosuke Fukudome if possible. Yankees?
- Will anyone take Carlos Zambrano from us now?
- Move Bob Howry to someone needing some bullpen help.
- Can Aramis Ramirez be dealt at all? Maybe the Angels could shore up 3B with him.
- Am I missing anything here?
Obviously, these will not all happen, butI think we need to look to the future. If Ken Rosenthal sees a bright future for the Cubs, we can too, and start to make it happen now by getting some useful pieces for 2011 or 2012.
I think we just need to own up to the fact that the season is lost, and has been lost from Day 1. Even though we had a nice series against the lowly Diamondbacks, we cannot win anything when we cannot beat the Pirates or anyone else in our own division. This is the kind of team that will tease us with a little run here right before the All Star break, but just does not have enough to make a serious push at contention.
Sorry to vent, but I just think we need to face the facts. If we decide to hold on for now and by some miracle this team does put a real winning streak together (Heck, even the White Sox did that!), then I will be the first person to eat my words here - and be very happy to do so!
P.S. Does anyone else here hate Rafael Furcal as much as me? First, he goes to LA instead of Chicago. Then he hurts Lee. Now he is on fire and beating us while we are already down.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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get this season salvaged quickly by starting the fire sale as soon as possible
Not sure how having a fire sale ‘salvages’ THIS lost season other than through the process you usually acquire a number of ‘maybe’ prospects that CAN payoff for you down the road.
Now if we can pull off a Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz type transaction, I’m all for it. But those are the exception, rather than the rule.
A fire sale can also allow you to play other guys for the balance of the ‘lost’ season to see if they really figure in your future plans.
There is NO ‘quick’ fix for this Cubs mess or this season. What you see is what you’ll get for awhile…
We have met the enemy and they are us! ~ Walt Kelly, Pogo, 1971
Yes, you are correct.
The only way I see salvaging this season is by getting prepared for the next one.
Am I missing anything here?
Yes, the fact that no team trades ten major league players before the deadline.
Since the Rangers seem to want Nady, do it. Otherwise all your other proposals are pipedreams.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Lilly to the Mets isn't a pipe dream, Al.
Some of these deals are. But the Mets have reported interest in TRL. You know that.
Yeah, that's true too.
I’m guessing a lot of teams may call about Lilly in the next three weeks.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Most of these are pipe dreams.
There will be many more such posts in the future as there has been in the past. Just perhaps without HANNA’s flair.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jul 10, 2010 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions
None of these
aside from Zambrano and maybe Fukudome, are unrealistic in isolation. Theriot could easily be moved, as could Fontenot. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think Lee could be sent out west. We already know teams are interested in bringing in Nady and Lily.
Why do you get so defensive, and sometimes downright rude, when people suggest making deals. The original poster acknowledged that all these deals couldn’t be made as a collection. The Cubs should be aggressive as sellers—they are on pace for 90+ losses this season without reason to think next year will be any better.
In fact, there was an article in today’s trib: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0710-bits-cubs-dodgers-chicago20100709,0,4528617.story where Hendry says he thinks the Cubs should’ve been contenders next year, and that any moves he makes this year will be to set the team up for 2011. That’s fine at face value, but what it means is that Hendry STILL has no long term vision for the club. He STILL thinks he can just make a short term fix, which probably means resigning Lily, Lee, etc, instead of taking a short-term hit for the betterment of the future. Of course I’d like for the Cubs to be a contender in 2011, but short of making aggressive moves at the deadline (gathering prospects to make a run at Adrian Gonzalez in the off-season, shedding enough salary to pick up Oswalt and his salary, etc) it’s not going to happen, particularly if the debt service you allude to is so burdensome that the payroll is dropped significantly in 2011.
DEJESUS!!!
by tomas21 on Jul 10, 2010 8:50 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I disagree that Hendry will re-sign Lee and Lilly to compete next year.
I think the Cubs are ready to cut ties with Lee.
I’m more optimistic about 2011 than most, it seems. A decent year from Aramis (which could happen, based on what we’re seeing now), a decent outfield of Byrd, Colvin and Soriano, a rotation that will pretty much stay intact and a bullpen with some experience and led by Marmol and Marshall are all pluses.
The two biggest questions will be second and first, but I’d be willing to go with a Fontenot/Baker platoon if the money saved from Lilly, Lee et. al goes to signing a decent first baseman.
I don’t expect playoffs next year. But I can see a team that has a wild card run in it.
Sure hope not
this Cubs team cannot be tweaked into contention, it needs to be re-booted
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 10, 2010 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions
Hope for this collection of players to be contenders in 2011?
In a word, No. If everything fell into place, they might squeak into a playoff spot, but they are pretenders now not contenders. Time to re-boot.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 10, 2010 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes, please elaborate.
Do you want to clear out the entire 25-man roster, LDR?
The
Cubs probably won’t be adding any major free agents this offseason. They will most likely lose 1 (Lee) if not 2 (lily) major pieces between now and next season. What is going to change for the better that will allow the Cubs to add 20 wins next year?
You could argue that Colvin, Castro and Cashner will have some improvement, but is that enough for 20 extra wins? We don’t have anyone to replace Lee, and if Ramirez opts out (which I think is a significant possibility if he has a solid second half), we don’t have anyone to replace him either. And if Al is correct about the debt service being an overwhelming obstacle for Ricketts, then adding to the payroll isn’t likely.
If Hendry doens’t get aggressive at the deadline, I don’t see any way the Cubs contend next year. We need to sell of major pieces to get chips to go after Adrian Gonzalez. We need to shed enough salary that we can take on some of the contracts that other teams will be trying to shed—that’s how we got Ramirez, Lee etc that fueled the run we had since Hendry took over.
DEJESUS!!!
by tomas21 on Jul 10, 2010 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
We need to sell off major pieces to get chips to go after Adrian Gonzalez.
For the last time, Adrian Gonzalez isn’t going anywhere.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
you can say
it as much as you want. What you say isn’t the final word on Adrian Gonzalez, so your “for the last time” is meaningless.
DEJESUS!!!
he's not going anywhere this year
and there’s a chance they hold onto him through next year, but unless they find, well, money, they will most likely still have to deal him or let him go at some point in the near future. Unless they really trust their system (good chips, but need a couple years) to really supplement the squad (then perhaps they give him that mega-deal and thin out the rest of the team).
He is a FA after 2011 - that means that argument isn't closed
But if Hendry uses up all the team’s powder trying to win 85 games in 2011, then it’s sure the Cubs won’t be in contention to get him or another player like him.
There are also other bats out there to get to play first
Adam Dunn always hit well at Wrigley, so seeing if he’ll take a two-year deal to play first might not be a bad idea.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).
To your question:
“What is going to change for the better that will allow the Cubs to add 20 wins next year?”
1. The improvement of Colvin, Castro, Cashner
2. A better bullpen generally. I think the next three months will provide valuable experience for a lot of our young arms.
3. A return to form or Aramis OR his exit the possibility of spending the money elsewhere.
4. Some free-agent spending.
The last one will cause some arguments. But I doubt the Cubs will let about $30 million come off the books — Lilly, Lee, Theriot, Nady, etc. — without spending something to improve the team. I don’t expect $140-plus million in payroll next year. But $125 million? $130 million? Possibly.
A few points
the Cubs will have to make a major addition to even think of contending next year, and that’s if Ramirez comes back and performs. Someone along the lines of Adrian Gonzalez.
If Ramirez doesn’t come back, there isn’t anyone available to replace either his position or the production we expect from him.
I am not saying contending next year is impossible. But it would require a differenct approach than Hendry seems to be making, and a different budget than Ricketts seems to want.
DEJESUS!!!
The team doesn't have the money do do that
They already have $101M committed to 9 players for 2011, and the arbitration eligible players (Marmol, Soto, and Marshall are part of this plan, right?) will probably put them up to about $115M. All that is assumming Lilly, Lee, Theriot and Nady cost $0 next year. There won’t be any free agent cavalry riding over the hill for 2011, or they will be on really small horses.
And you aren’t just trying to add 20 wins next year, you are trying to add 20 wins above the guys who leave. Cashner will need to be the new Maddux (5th season Maddux, not 2nd season Maddux) and Colvin would need to find his inner Ted Williams.
I agree the Cubs will not be adding any big name FAs this offseason.
Dreaming about AGonzalez or even Fielder is a pipe dream. The Cubs will not be taking on new big contracts.
Hendry might be able to make a few moves than could make the Cubs marginally competitive (basically a .500ish team) but that’s about it.
Making the Cubs true contenders again will require them getting younger via the trading of veterans like Lilly and ARam, and the farm system.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 11, 2010 8:25 AM CDT up reply actions
as a side note
AGon isn’t a FA and has a relatively cheap salary for 2011, so the issue there is whether or not the Cubs would fork over the prospects. I don’t think we’re going to land AGon either, but it is something to note.
thanks for the correction
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 11, 2010 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions
No
First of all, you’re assuming all these prospects are not just going to work out but be very good. Big assumption.
A combination of youth AND veterans is what’s going to help the Cubs, not a Pirates-style purge.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jul 11, 2010 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions
Actually I am assuming many of the prospects will work out
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 12, 2010 8:05 AM CDT up reply actions
Because trying to contend in 2011 won't win a pennant
And is likely to mess up the chance to do that over the next few years. The Cubs don’t have the payroll space to do much for next year (already have $101M commited to 9 players before some key guys get $ out of arbitration). They still don’t have #1 and #2 starters, a leadoff hitter, a 1B, and a 2B not afflicted with terminal TOOTBLAN.
Too many holes to fill in one offseason. Better to drop back, punt, and play for a rebound in 2012-2013. And if Hendry doen’t get that, he should be fired. Yesterday.
Because trying to contend in 2011 won’t win a pennant and is likely to mess up the chance to do that over the next few years.
You don’t know this.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
If if means adding significant contracts that stretch beyond 2012, it will mess up the chance to contend in the future
The team can’t afford to add top-of-the-crop free agents in 2010-2011; too much in sunk salary costs already tied up for 2011. So the only way to “retool for 2011” is to add mid-tier FAs or trade the Cubs’ overpaid, underperforming players for another team’s overpaid, underperforming players. Assuming either of these paths will lead to success requires some serious magical thinking.
At this point, it looks like the best path for long-term success is to live out the current batch of contracts and make plans to have the next window start to open in 2012 and fully open in 2013. That or plan for a payroll of $180M……
Again, you don't know this
Has Ricketts told anybody what next year’s budget is? Far as I can tell, he hasn’t.
There is no way — no way — the Cubs will or should embrace a full-on youth movement.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jul 11, 2010 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions
The 2011 budget is pretty easy to figure out
Unless team revenues have gone up significantly, it will be about the same as 2010. The Ricketts’ ability to go all-out on payroll is constrained by debt payments – Crain’s estimated the acquistion debt at about $500M, net of subordinated debt held by the family (http://www.chicagobusiness.com/cgi-bin/article.pl?articleId=32855). Unless the family gets a visit from the debt forgiveness fairy, payroll is going to be contrained for several years – at least until the $175M in bank debt is retired in 2013.
That's all correct.
Here’s the dilemma: if you rebuild — in any way, whether by blowing it up or just by stages — and make a public statement that you can’t contend in 2011, there is no way Wrigley Field is going to draw 3 million fans at the high ticket prices currently charged.
Selling “the Wrigley experience” — which is clearly what they are doing with this “it’s a way of life” promo campaign — isn’t enough.
This is why Hendry is saying they DO intend to contend every year. And this franchise should.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
The concern
is that Hendry will give multiyear deals to Lee and Lily instead of moving them for prospects, extend Ramirez, etc—things that probably aren’t going to make the team a contender in 2011, but will put the team in another situation like this in 2012—too much money committed to players who aren’t performing or movable.
Nobody knows with certainty what next year will bring, but we can talk in likelihoods.
DEJESUS!!!
funny what happens in one year
last season most were calling ror Hendry to give Lilly and Lee extensions, now they are fearful of them getting extensions.
Unofficial Self Appointed President of the Player Formerly Known as Castro Blocker Fan Club
Bleed Castro Blue
multi year deals to players like DLee and Lilly
are exactly what the Cubs should not do. They need to start transitioning the roster towards a younger team. This core group of veterans is not going to rebound next year and make a playoff run, so it is time to start creating a new core group that will be able to make a playoff run in the near future.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 12, 2010 8:10 AM CDT up reply actions
to be honest
with 1 player, the Cubs could probably be competitive (not saying playoff worthy, as that depends on a bunch of other factors). But then again, finding that top of the order hitter is easier said than done.
wouldn't go so far to say
Theriot could be easily moved. around 1.3 million left for a middle infielder with an average glove and below average bat. Most teams have guys in the system that can provide that skillset for a much cheaper price. It’s possible someone offers something, perhaps believing him to be a gritty, team guy that’s valuable on the bench, but it’s probably more likely that he finishes the year here and is non-tendered this offseason.
Oh wow...
an orignal post…clear the books of everyone we dont want, fire lou, declare the season lost and then throw in a random hatred of someone…I have never seen this before. GITITDONE JIM!!!! Anyone on this site that honestly believes that Hendry isnt trying to trade away some of our players needs to lay off the booze-weed combo they have going on.
Sipping the Kool-Aid since 1982 - Kinda
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
Sheez.
This thread is turning into kindergarten class.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
General Manager in Training
“Let’s see, if Z waives his no trade clause… and we can move Lilly for two top-line prospects, then that will free up $24 million from next season’s payroll…
We have met the enemy and they are us! ~ Walt Kelly, Pogo, 1971
by Zeke on Jul 10, 2010 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
That would make an interesting Barney show.
gather ’round kids while I tell you what I really think of you….lol
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jul 10, 2010 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions
I can sorta get behind ...
suggesting which players should be dealt. But suggesting where they’ll be traded? Come on. What sheer and pointless speculation — except in the cases where teams have reportedly been linked to certain players.
I would like to see Z traded.
The fact that it’s been said he’ll go back to the bullpen “when” he returns is a clue. While I thought that was worth trying when it was done, it was obviously a failure — what’s the point in doing it again? You won’t get good pitching and you’ll have a pissed-off player.
The Cubs will have to eat some of the money, but it will be better than eating all of it. Sending him to the Mets for Oliver Perez still seems to be the best possible scenario.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Should have done it two years ago
Maybe next time, we won’t get so sycophantic about a player
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
Z for Perez works for me.
But I’d hope that the Cubs trade Silva to make that move work. I’d like Cashner in the rotation next year, but if Silva, Perez, Dempster, Wells and Gorzo already are on the roster, Cashner wouldn’t get his shot.
I still
like Cashner in a setup role better than as a starter.
DEJESUS!!!
why's that?
The Cashner we saw in the minors this year was a 92-95 mph fb with solid movement, a plus slider, and a solid changeup. Why is that more useful in the pen than in the rotation? I’m not saying Cashner will be able to be that guy next year, but why not give him a shot in the rotation? If you want a hard throwing guy in the setup role, then you could go with Jay Jackson (who I think could make it as a starter as well, but he can give you mid-90’s with a solid breaking ball out of the pen), Rafael Dolis (mid-upper 90’s out of the pen with a solid breaking ball), and others in our system. They might not be as good, but Cashner should definitely be given a shot in the rotation.
He seems to be mostly
a 2-pitch pitcher (I haven’t seen him using the change effectively yet), and was a reliever for his college career.
The Cubs have a history of trying to turn prospects into something they are not, just because what they are isn’t what they need. They don’t usually succeed doing that. I’d rather see them accept what he is (a set-up/closer, imo) and make him great at that, rather than try to force him into a role he’s never been.
Last, I HATE that if they plan on converting him to the rotation they are wasting him in the bullpen in a lost season. That is SO Cub like, and part of the reason I want Hendry and Fleita out of here ASAP.
DEJESUS!!!
coming out of the pen, he hasn’t had to use his change much. Most of the reports, and from what I’ve seen, has indicated that the change has gone from a developmental pitch to at least an average pitch.
Of course, the issue is he needs work with the change. I didn’t like calling him up for pen duty for a variety of reasons, as I would’ve preferred for Cashner to log consistent SP innings. That said, to be fair, this isn’t going to make or break Cashner’s SP in the log run.
I’m not saying he will succeed as a SP, but let me put it another way – if he was in the minors and had continued the success he had earlier this year, we’d likely be talking about a top 20, if not top 10, prospect in baseball, and one of the top SP prospects in the minors. That is how impressive he was, as he showed the arsenal depth and the durability to work long, along with command.
Bringing Cashner up to the pen when they did made sense at the time
as they believed he could help them make the playoffs. Now, with this team not likely to make a serious at playoffs, it would make sense to send Cashner down and put him Iowa’s rotation until he is ready for a call-up as a starter this time.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 11, 2010 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions
my partial issue then
was that they had sent Jay Jackson to the pen. Jay has potential late inning ability as well. The whole process that period seemed off – send Jackson to the pen, bump him back to the rotation with Cashner in the pen. Jay has seemed a bit off since his return to the rotation, although he had a fine start last night. Seemed like a wasted maneuver – either don’t move Jay around, or give Jay a shot in the pen before going to Andrew.
That said, Andrew going to the pen was always likely to happen this year due to an innings control issue. It was more a matter of when.
Right now Cashner is better suited in relief
He certainly has closer stuff, but he does have three pitches, two are plus pitches right now and if he masters a changeup (and sharpens his command) , he would be a big time starter, maybe even, dare I say it, an ace. So unless they have starters in the minors that they consider better starting prospects than Cashner (doubtful), Cashner needs to be transitioning to the rotation for 2011.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 11, 2010 8:30 AM CDT up reply actions
I like using him in the pen.
Keep his innings down while he’s a young guy, and give him a taste of MLB success. Worked for Santana.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
The issue with this
is that if you are looking at Cashner as a long term starter, you need to gradually begin to stretch his arm out and strengthen it for long term starter innings. He will not be ready to pitch 200 innings next year as a starter now.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
The stretching out process can be started now and completed by next year. You
have the rest of this season, fall league and spring training. He was starting in the minors so it’s not as if this is something foreign to him. Maybe not 200 innings, but he should be able to make the transition back to starter with relative ease.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Jul 13, 2010 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions
I wouldn't let him throw 200 innings next year anyway.
He’s 23 now. He’ll be 24 next year. By 25, the kid gloves can come off. In the meantime, I’d like to see the Cubs manage his workload the way the Rays did with David Price. (Albeit, with a lot more time spent in relief this first MLB season.)
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Dusty Baker would
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 13, 2010 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions
...and then he'd question the sanity and manhood of any workload critics.
And then he’d say something like “We all hate to see ‘bonus babies’ throw their arms out, but there’s really nothing you can do about it.”
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
I would feel a lot better about those comments if we weren't
looking up at the Reds in the standings. From a pretty good distance too.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Jul 13, 2010 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Imagine where they'd be if Volquez hadn't thrown his arm out.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Z should land
more than Oliver Perez a #4 starter at best. The Cubs should still be able to land a couple of Blue Chip prospects for him no matter what his salary is.
I don't think any GM
would take his salary, attitude and history while giving up 2 top prospects.
as Riney notes, that’s probably unlikely. A Z move would be a salary dump, or a bad contract swap. He’s a guy who has been declining for several years now and is considered a nuisance. I don’t believe the general perception on Z is positive. All those factors combined, and it’s quite unrealistic to believe that anyone would make that move, considering the type of season he has been having.
To be honest, I doubt he gets moved. I just don’t see the Mets making that swap, and besides the Mets, who else is there? A lot of teams could use a mid-rotation guy like Z, but most of them won’t want to deal with Z’s … personality.
The Cubs should still be able to land a couple of Blue Chip prospects for him no matter what his salary is.
haha
by jesus christos on Jul 10, 2010 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions
if lily
gets traded why put z in the pen?as punishment? grow up cubs. will this organization ever figure it out?dont destroy his trade value enhance it.theriot and fontenot traded.sure lets put baker full time at 2nd thats a good idea.
At this point, Z's trade value is what it is.
It wouldn’t be destroyed by another bullpen stint, but doing that again would be pointless.
Trade him before he plays another game for the Cubs.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Easier said then done as is a lot of the trades proposed here.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jul 10, 2010 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
It would have been easier to trade him....
….if our GM hadn’t made it so explicitly clear that Z would not be returning to the Cubs’ rotation.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
And if he gets another starting gig
and is removed after 1.1 innings and punches a wall? What would his trade value be then?
His trade value will not improve. It will only worsen.
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
When some here learn that Z destroyed his own market value already
there is nothing the Cubs can do now to make it worse.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 10, 2010 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions
You are wrong.
What you are posting is not a “Fact”. To the contrary, it is objectively wrong.
If the Cubs are expecting a return greater than zero for Z, then by definition, Z has some value.
And that value can be further diminished by, for instance, the GM degrading our bargaining position by publicly stating that Z must be moved at all costs.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Hmmm,
Your opinions = facts, while contrary opinions are “objectively wrong”?
Get over yourself.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 13, 2010 8:01 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm not citing opinion.
This is like saying it’s my “opinion” that the sky is blue.
Anything greater than zero can, by definition, be diminished.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
You opine that Hendry dimished Z's value
others like me disagree. Your problem is that you seem to believe those who disagree with you are wrong. So I say again, get over yourself.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 13, 2010 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions
That's not what you are saying.
If it’s your opinion that Hendry did not diminish Z’s value, that’s a subjective opinion, and that’s fine. I don’t agree, but that’s an opinion.
But when you say, as you do above, that Hendry cannot diminish Z’s value, that’s a statement of fact, and objectively incorrect. You said “there is nothing that the Cubs can do to make (Z’s trade value) worse”. That’s not an opinion.
If Z has any trade value greater than zero, then by definition, it can be diminished. There are plenty of things that Hendry could do to diminish the Cubs’ bargaining position.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
you need to get a hobby
you are losing it here.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 14, 2010 7:59 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't get it.
Seriously, I have no idea what you are saying.
But if you think someone is “losing it” when they make a post in a thread every so often over the course of several days, and never use any rhetoric stronger than an explanation of the difference between fact and opinion, then I’d suggest you stay home all day with the covers pulled over your head for fear of all the crazies out there….
You either don’t understand the logical fallacy you’re proposing, (in which case why are we doing this) or you DO understand it, and now you’re taking a little shot at me because you’re backed into a corner. Either way, it’s not a big deal.
You could just say “oh, yeah, that makes sense, but I don’t think that Hendry’s actions hurt Z’s value here”, and everyone moves on.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
my last post on this overwrought subject
Your problem is that you want to blame Hendry for ruining Z’s value, which is patently absurd, Z did that to himself. I suspect you now realize this position is absurd and now you are trying to argue semantics in a pathetic attempt to get out of the corner you painted yourself into.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 14, 2010 9:27 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't know what to say. I'm honestly baffled.
Are you having trouble reading this thread? I’ve been completely consistent in making one point the entire time. You’re the one trying to shift your argument.
I even posted a day or so ago that “if you believe Hendry hasn’t damaged Z’s value, that’s a fair opinion.”
My one point is that it’s still possible for the Cubs to damage Z’s trade value – which is the proposition you flatly denied at the outset.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
I think you guys should just agree to disagree.
This is getting tiresome.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Bummer
I wanted Smoak. Had Cliff Lee gone elsewhere a motivated win-now Rangers team mighta bit on Lilly, D. Lee, cash package. With shrinking opions perhaps not as much cash as everyone will assume.
I'm wet nurse to a (4th)-place, dead-to-the-neck-up ball club, and I'm choking to death!
um
that’s a bit unlikely. They weren’t going to move Smoak unless it was for an ace. They held out for a long time, but then Daniels caved on Smoak. Lilly and Lee for Smoak? If I’m the Rangers, I wouldn’t make that deal. They have enough mid-end of the rotation arms.
No, the Rangers had to have the cash
They are operating under supervision by a bankrupcty court. Any attempt to spend money over the preset limit would be vetoed.
If Ramirez gets dealt
another year is added to his contract at $16M. This will make it impossible to deal him.
As for the rest of it, I’m sure that Hendry is putting himself and the Cubs in position to make deals. It’s only a matter of time that some deals get made. My guess is that the Cubs will first be looking to get salary relief and second to get prospects. Lilly is probably the only player that might net the Cubs a decent prospect. The rest won’t get them much. The best they can hope for is to hope some other team will pay salary. Even a million here and a million there would be beneficial.
by jerry morales rules on Jul 10, 2010 11:09 AM CDT reply actions
Why stop there?!
Trade Gorzelanny to the Rays
Dempster to the Braves
Lou to the Kane County Cougars
Wrigley Field to the Northwestern Wildcats
Trade Hendry to… well you can’t trade a genius like Hendry. That’s just idiotic.
Look… I can call out names of things related to the Cubs and say they should go other places TOO. It’s easy AND fun!
Rumors are rumors.
And there is no way that all of this happens… if any of them happen. What is the point of yelling FIRE SALE when it’s not that easy. You can’t just say you don’t like a player so you should give them to some other team who would be more than willing to take on their bloated contracts.
Even if we ate 99% of our players salaries there would still be difficulties finding places for them to go. Just because a team needs a SS/2b doesn’t mean they want Theriot.
Actually, Lou did not say this is his last year of managing
He has said that the Cubs are the last team he will manage.
Can we have Opposite Day at school this week?
1. How about we buy players instead of selling. And not just any players. I say we buy the most expensive. over-rated players on the market. Trade Castro for Derek Jeter, straight up.
2. And I’m tired of figuring out the tip money for a beer at Wrigley. Jack the price up to $8 or $8.50, so I can give a $10 and tell the beer vendor to keep the change.
3. And I don’t want anymore new, healthy food at Wrigley. Could the curly fries be greasier, please? And double that peanut salt.
4. Can the Cubs sell advertising on on the Cubs uniforms? How about advertising tarps on the ivy? I don’t think that’s illegal.
5. Can we bottle and sell the air at Wrigley Field?
"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas
by RiskyBusiness on Jul 10, 2010 9:01 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
how about
they bottle and sell the air at WF for 48.50 (plus tip $10) with advertising on the bottle that is covered in margarita salt and use that money to send with Colvin for Jeter
Unofficial Self Appointed President of the Player Formerly Known as Castro Blocker Fan Club
Bleed Castro Blue
maybe
no free agents is a good thing.hendry has done a lot better with his trading.thats if he is still here next year.
You can plan to be a contender without going on a fire sale
Now if our core of players were losing 90+ games for multiple seasons, you’d have to reboot and start over. They’re two-years removed from back-to-back division titles and only injuries kept them from winning the division last season. The Cubs can move some pieces, get some prospects and look to free agency or the minors to fill the gaps. They still need a power bat to replace Derrek Lee.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).
Quite right, AV
A wholesale blowup isn’t necessary, by any stretch.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jul 11, 2010 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed Ace.
I’d add they could use an upgrade over Riot and release him. Choosing Fonty seems iffy at best.
"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach
by Sandberg's evil twin on Jul 11, 2010 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions
YUPPERS
Unofficial Self Appointed President of the Player Formerly Known as Castro Blocker Fan Club
Bleed Castro Blue
You're dreaming
The skills of this core group have eroded markedly. Also, assuming that they can be players in free agency is another pipe dream. The only way that happens is if they get incredibly lucky in moving one or more of the big contracts.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 12, 2010 8:13 AM CDT up reply actions
I certainly agree with this.
I think that the offense (and the team’s record) will be improved next year, simply because they’ve underperformed pretty badly this year. The starting pitching will still be good, although it’s likely to regress a bit further.
That said, they aren’t going to be very good.
I’d amend AV’s post title to say “you can plan to be a plausible MLB team (but not really a contender) without going on a fire sale”.
The only thing that’s going to give this organization a chance to truly rebuild is time – the awful contracts need to unwind. There’s no great value to be gained through a fire sale – we have no valuable trade chips, really.
In the meantime, may as well offer Lilly and Lee arbitration, and plan to send the same old gang out again in 2011. That way, if Lilly and Lee walk, we get draft picks. If they stay, they’re on 1-year deals and we can make a big FA splash in 2012 with Dome-Lee-Lilly-Rami-Silva coming off the books.
So, basically, I’m subscribing to the “whaddaya gonna do” school of thought. A fire sale probably isn’t going to net a lot of useful salary relief (unless Z or Sori were somehow moved), and they’re not likely to bring A-List prospects, either. Keep your ears open and make any deals that are too good to refuse.
In the likely event that those types of deals don’t materialize, just suck it up and fail with the current (aging, unlikely to succeed, but still marketable) group in 2011, and then watch tens of millions of salary fall off the books. And try to spend it a little smarter this time.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Jul 12, 2010 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Agreed as well.
Never thought of it this way. The “whaddaya gonna do” school of thought is very logical given a lot of the other things discussed here. 2012 is probably the only time salary relief will come.
I don't know
if, from a business standpoint, the Cubs can afford to trot out essentially the same team that lost 90 plus games this year. The team is not holding fan interest, and the problem players on the team will only be older next year. I think Hendry needs to be bold at the deadline at the off-season and start building a new core. That may mean eating some money, but I think it’s the right baseball decision and business decision.
DEJESUS!!!
I think you're right, but...
… we’ll see if they are willing to do that. They don’t need to do a total reboot — because that would probably doom the team to several 90+ loss sesons — but retooling is definitely needed.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I certainly agree with this.
I mean, they’re going to have to do something around the margins, if only to save face. But I don’t think it should be something expensive – unless it’s signing Cliff Lee with our Ted Lilly money – just for the sake of doing something.
I’m just trying to be realistic. I am not sure that the team can move the more troublesome contracts, and I’m not sure whether it would be worth it to move some of the less troublesome contracts. Obviously, I’d make any helpful deal that came down the line.
I keep coming back to Dan Uggla. I know he’s not all that great at 2B, and I know that he’s going to be kind of expensive, but he seems to fit right into that “moderately sized move at the margins at a need position” that could be the “big” face-saving splash for 2011.
Hopefully he’s not going to command eight figures at age 30, in which case never mind. But a 3-year deal in the high seven figures could be timed well for Lee’s eventual arrival, while adding a legit bat at a position that’s been pretty lousy offensively. The Theriot + Nady money would get us a long way toward Uggla’s 2011 salary.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
And to clarify
Uggla isn’t a FA until after 2011. But I am assuming he could be had, based on FLA’s MO. Still, that one year may throw too many monkeys into this wrench.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Uggla might be traded before July 31.
There are teams in the race this year who are interested in him.
There are other ideas. How about this one, suggested in the Sun-Times this morning: Paul Konerko on a short-term deal to play 1B (maybe two years)?
If nothing else, it’d really piss off the Sox fans.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I'd obviously prefer Adrian Gonzalez, but that's a fine Plan B.
Konerko is having an awesome year, obviously. But I’m not really opposed to just hanging on to Lee for another arb year and then going after a bigger, younger name when the team is flush with cash after next season.
As for Uggla, I read that COL is trying to get him, and would play him at 3B.
Barring a contract extension that takes him beyond his arb years, however, he’ll still be a FA after next season, and an “Uggla type” (i.e., a primarily offense-minded player at a traditionally defense-heavy position) will likely be necessary – we need to be above-average somewhere offensively.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
By 2012...
… Hak-Ju Lee might be ready to play SS, and Starlin Castro could move to 2B.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Why does it always seem to be assumed
that it is Castro who moves to 2B if he and Lee are together?
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 14, 2010 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions
Because Lee has better range and a better arm, even at his age.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Fair enough
Here’s hoping both turn into solid MLB middle infielders. I am not expecting Trammel and Whitaker, but I would be okay with it.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 14, 2010 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions
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