The Cubs 1st inning blues

by tharr on Jul 13, 2010 9:58 AM CDT

We’re all aware that the Cubs offense is the team’s Achilles heel. We’re not a team famous for comeback victories. Through 89 games, we’ve come from behind only 12 times and the largest comeback was 3 runs. The Cubs have been held to 2 or fewer runs 36 of the 89 games played so far. Their record in those games is 3-33 or 30 games under. On the contrary, Cubs pitchers have held opposing teams to 2 or less runs 25 times. However, because of our poor offense, we’re only 19-6 in those games or 13 games over .500. If our offense was only league average, it would result in an improvement of 17 games. We'd be 6 games over .500 and in the thick of the race.

It all starts in the first inning. The Cubs have scored 31 runs in the first, the fewest in the NL. On the contrary, we have given up 61 runs, 13th of 16 teams. So how have our starters done in their 1st innings. Here are the numbers :

Pitcher Games Runs

Lilly 15 5

Silva 17 6

Wells 18 16

Dempster 18 11

Gorzelanny 12 10

Zambrano 9 13

Obviously, only Lilly and Silva have hit the ground running in the first inning.

As for the offense, the numbers are self explanatory. Theriot has lead off the game 52 times and Fukudome 28. In the 80 games, they have been on base only 16 times, 13 hits and only 3 walks. Between them they’ve scored only 7 runs, league worst.

What would you do differently if you were manager? Nothing is an option.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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I'd say it's a product of the opponent's approach and confidence vs the Cubs.

Much in the way that mediocre or inexperienced pitchers on the Pirates and other teams have had great success vs the Cubs this year. Face it… opposing pitchers have attacked the strike zone vs Cubs with confidence, because they aren’t threatened by a poor hitting team.

So, perhaps opposing hitters have been overly aggressive in the first inning of games, as part of the game plan… knowing if they jump to an early lead it’s probably a victory.

"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)

Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)

by SackMan on Jul 13, 2010 10:14 AM CDT reply actions

I personally

think Lou is (or maybe was) a great manager. But the Cubs production in the 1, 3, and 4 spots is largely a function of who has been in those spots. Lou has done a ton of juggling the lineup, but keeping Lee, Ramirez and Theriot in those key spots has ruined the Cubs this year, imo.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jul 13, 2010 10:41 AM CDT reply actions

Put anybody not named Ryan in the top two spots.

Seriously, anybody.

by pygreg on Jul 13, 2010 12:43 PM CDT reply actions

Ditka.

"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach

by Sandberg's evil twin on Jul 13, 2010 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions

National League vs. Ditka?

by Fonzie2178 on Jul 13, 2010 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions

He'd win, buried in the sand with only his arms available.

"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach

by Sandberg's evil twin on Jul 14, 2010 2:02 AM CDT up reply actions

Ditka 147, National League, 1

Sympathy hanging curveball over the plate. lol

by Fonzie2178 on Jul 14, 2010 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions

I realize that this is sacrilegious,

but I would move Sori back to the lead-off spot.

Dome’s weakness — the outer half of the plate — has been discovered by NL pitchers and is being routinely exploited. It takes a lot of walks to have a .350 OBA with a .260 BA, and Dome doesn’t have enough power to scare pitchers out of the strike zone.

Riot reminds me a lot of Juan Pierre (minus the drag-bunting and genuine base-stealing ability). He has so little power that pitchers will generally throw strike one right down the middle. If he gets a hit, it is only a single; if he takes it, he is down in the count. Thus, he has very little chance to draw walks, and he definitely isn’t a .350 hitter.

IMO, Byrd should be #3, at least until DLee finds his swing.

That leaves Sori. He is very unlikely to have a .350 OBA, but he has a much better chance than Dome or Riot to lead off with an XBH.

In short, if I don’t have any truly high OBA guys available to lead off, I’d rather have my high-OPS guy lead off. At least Sori would get more ABs batting leadoff than #6, and he’s having a much better year than Ramy or DLee.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Jul 13, 2010 12:48 PM CDT reply actions

Soriano's OBA as of today is .342

Overall team OBA in the leadoff spot is .319.

Theriot’s OBA in the leadoff spot is .310.

Fukudome’s OBA in the leadoff spot is .287. (This surprised me; I thought he’d be better, but he hits best batting second: .353/.441/.612)

I think in general, focus on batting orders is overdone. Nevertheless, here is a clear example of why the Cubs don’t score many runs in the first inning.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 13, 2010 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions

Like I said before try SOTO

I don’t care if he has NO speed at least he knows HOW TO GET ON BASE and if he does get on base he is not likely to commit a TOOTBLAN. Lou is inexplicably batting his best OBP guy 8th ,WHEN he lets him play. As I mentioned a few days ago, Soto he has been healthy all year, but DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH ABs to qualify in batting categories. This is just nuts. We have nothing to lose by trying a guy who at the very least takes pitches at leadoff.

"Lou Piniella's been a great manager for a long time and I stand by him completely"

by Doggie Stalker on Jul 13, 2010 1:20 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

I don't think Soto is the solution.

But he definitely should be moved up and just as much, played instead of riding the pine so we get to watch Hill fail repeatedly.

"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach

by Sandberg's evil twin on Jul 13, 2010 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions

I'd like to try Soto in the #2 hole

right behind Castro leading off who has a .385 OBP the past 28 days. Ideal for hit and run. The playoff season is over. It’s criminal to use Theriot or Kosuke leading off when there is little chance they’ll be here next year and no chance they’ll be leading off.

If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.

by tharr on Jul 13, 2010 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions

castro wont be a lead off guy in his career

dont make him one

by jesus christos on Jul 13, 2010 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions

And you know this how?

If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.

by tharr on Jul 13, 2010 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions

In his career?

Why not?

(Not saying he will or he won’t. Just curious as to why you’re so certain.)

Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!

by daver on Jul 13, 2010 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions

i dont think hell draw enough walks to be a stud leadoff guy

but his speed and contact skills will make him a damn good #2 hitter imo

by jesus christos on Jul 13, 2010 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions

Except...

… Fukudome is hitting .353/.441/.612 batting second. There’s a place he might actually be useful.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 13, 2010 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, that's the problem here.

Dome has not done well at leadoff and really shouldn’t be there. But no one has performed at leadoff, so who do you put there to languish? I’d try Fonty myself at least at a platoon. Soto has a good OPS but is too slow to do well there, there’s really few options for it.

"The ones who want to achieve and win championships motivate themselves." - Da Coach

by Sandberg's evil twin on Jul 14, 2010 2:07 AM CDT up reply actions

I wonder if....

… any manager would try someone as slow as Soto at leadoff. Remember, you are only guaranteed to lead off once per game.

Speed in that spot is overrated.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 14, 2010 7:29 AM CDT up reply actions

But getting your best OBP more plate appearances is not.

Lou would never do this. He did not know and obviously did not care that Theriot
had not drawn a walk for nearly a month so I doubt he even knows Soto has the best OBP on the team by a wide margin. Also the reason hit OBP is so high is that he drawing a LOT of walks which is something most managers would love in a lead off hitter, but it is clear Lou doesn’t.

"Lou Piniella's been a great manager for a long time and I stand by him completely"

by Doggie Stalker on Jul 14, 2010 7:53 AM CDT up reply actions

Agreed and Rec'd.

He and Kosuke at the top of the lineup (assuming he was in the lineup) would at least force pitchers to throw a lot of pitches at the top of the order.

Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!

by daver on Jul 13, 2010 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions

I don't necessarily agree with Soto leading off

however, I think batting Soto in the 8th spot it absolutely ridiculous. To be completely honest, we have no one who would flourish in the #1 spot, which is what we all have to realize. We can argue for Soto, Soriano, Byrd, etc., but at the end of the day, they are all sub par choices.

It’s sad that with a 146MM payroll, the Cubs have year in year out failed to produce a top of the order hitter. For all this talk about lefty/righty, middle of the order righty guy, and other issues with the team, it’s amazing how little we hear (outside of a crush on a certain Oriole second baseman) the organization discussing the need for a true leadoff man. Are the Cubs really content running Theriot, the one pitch wonder out there every year?

by bdlugz on Jul 13, 2010 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions

And with having said that...

I hope Lee continues to improve throughout the year and gives us all a little hope that we may in the next 3 years see a true leadoff hitter on the Cubs roster.

by bdlugz on Jul 13, 2010 7:19 PM CDT up reply actions

I see Castro as a #2 hitter in the future..

he doesn"t strike out much , he handles the bat well, and he has pretty good pop that is only going to get better

by wfree0104 on Jul 13, 2010 3:08 PM CDT reply actions

There's not a good leadoff option on this roster...

so you might as well put Fukudome there since he does see a lot of pitches. and he does run the bases better than most current Cubs

by wfree0104 on Jul 13, 2010 3:10 PM CDT reply actions

He's hitting .180 as a leadoff batter

with 1 SB and 3 CS. Are you really suggesting he’s the best option?

If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.

by tharr on Jul 13, 2010 6:26 PM CDT reply actions

I knew the first inning woes were bad, but your numbers really nail it

How would you like to be an opposing team that, if you get a lead on the Cubs, your chances are winning are 7:1. Give me those odds any day.

"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse

by BigJohnAZ on Jul 13, 2010 8:57 PM CDT reply actions

Byrd & either Colvin or Dome 1-2, depending on who is playing.

Or bat Byrd 1st and Soto 2nd. Soto should play everyday (with needed rest for a catcher), and he should be getting far more plate appearances than Theriot. I know the order can be over rated, but when making such a pathetic showing, you have to make some changes that make sense, i.e., at least stop giving away so many damn outs to start the games.

Also, I wouldn’t mind seeing Soriano bat 2nd.

by DudeVf11 on Jul 14, 2010 8:20 PM CDT reply actions