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The Larry Rothschild Effect


Larry Rothschild has seen a lot. He's been through the Prior and Wood Fiasco, he's survived the Dusty Era, and well he's been based a lot.  The man is just not respected enough. The thing is he has a great effect on his pitchers. 

 

To keep things current I'll run down the current starting rotation under Larry.

Star-divide

Let's first start with Ted Lilly. After coming out of a pretty mediocre 2005 Jim Hendry signed Lilly to a 40MM deal. Lilly was (and still is) a extreme fly ball pitcher. A fly ball pitcher and Wrigley seemed like a match made in hell. But under Larry Ted has had the most success of his career. Take a look at this.

833_p_season_full_2_20100724_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

And This 

833_p_season_full_6_20100724_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

 

Lilly has decreased his walk rate ever since 05. He now is only walking about 2 a game. Lilly gives up a lot of home runs but the reason he's been successful with the Cubs is because he doesn't walk anybody. With no one on base that leads to a solo home run and little damage done.

 

Now let's take a look at the former closer turned starter Ryan Dempster. It seemed like it was a controversial thing when he moved into the rotation. Dempster was terrible as a reliever, walking almost 5 batters sometimes but look at his numbers now.

 

517_p_season_full_3_20100724_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

 

Dempster has cut down on the walks and is maintaing a high K level . He's on pace for over 170 innings pitched and a ERA under 4. This again at the time looked like a bad signing.

Now on to the largest member of the cubs rotation. Big fat Carlos Silva. Carlos Silva has alway had the ability to not walk people. While in Minnesota and Seattle the big righty posted a BB per 9 of 1.5 which is ridiculous. But the problem was Silva's strikeout rate. It was only at three per game. People were putting the ball in play against him and doing it hard.

But have no fear Larry is here!

 

973_p_season_full_1_20100724_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

As you can see Silva is striking out 6 per game. Not great but it will get the job done. As noted in this article Silva is throwing less fastball and throwing more changeups and sliders. This is the reason for the higher strikeout totals. But Silva couldn't have just changed his style by himself. Somebody must have told him to stop throwing his terrible 88MPH fastball. I think it's pretty safe to assume Larry told him that.

Now on to the weird looking Tom Gorzelanny. Gorzy was acquired in a trade from pissburgh in 09 and has been all the Cubs could have hoped for. Like all the other pitchers the results have been the same.

6244_p_season_full_3_20100724_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

Gorzy has increased his K rate to about 9 per game. He still has trouble walking people. But for a guy who was acquired in exchange for next to nothing he's been pretty good.

 

Now the last member of the Cubs (current rotation) Randy Wells. Randy had a great rookie year and its been the same this year. Randy Wells' baseball card numbers don't look all that impressive. But those are decieving. Randy is like every Rothschild pitcher striking out more while continuing his excellent control. As a result is xFIP is 3.71 which is the best in the rotation.

 

As you can See Larry has a profound effect on pitchers. For some reason he's poked fun at. He's never mentioned as a great pitching coach by broadcasters, fans, and even players. I don't get it. Some pitchers have failed under Larry (Zambrano) but most of the see an uptick in their current performance. The k rate usually goes up and the walks go down. Hopefully whoever the new manager is appreciates what Larry does and keeps him around.

 

 


This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Most baseball people outside Chicago

consider Rothschild one of the best pitching coaches in the business. Dave Duncan probably is the best, but Larry isn’t terribly far behind.

by Not Bruce Froemming on Jul 25, 2010 5:48 PM CDT reply actions  

It's taken me a few years of paying attention to him after the injury problems,

But I’ve seen that myself. When our rotation was a mash unit and we had so many problems with pitching as a result, I let that make me think he wasn’t doing his job well. Faulty logic. I hope we are able to keep him for the future.

Starlin Castro singles on a pop up to catcher Jason LaRue.
Ryan Theriot scores. Two out -Gameday 7/23/10

by Sandberg's evil twin on Jul 28, 2010 10:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm a Rothschild fan as well

I’m sure he had a hand in Marmol’s success as well. Marmol was primarily a catcher as late as 2002 and now he is a closer.

by rlpete on Jul 25, 2010 6:02 PM CDT reply actions  

I've said it before and I'll say it again

There are people that like to bash Rothschild because they think it’s trendy. They’ll tell you he’s never improved anyone and point out shortcomings in the team’s pitching – but point out anyone who has had success, and the same people will say that’s all because of the individual pitcher’s talent.

by Shanghai Badger on Jul 26, 2010 6:56 AM CDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

This post was well thought out and illustrated with the charts.

Rothschild isn’t the best pitching coach around, but he’s far from the worst. He got no credit for the fine 2008 season the staff had, and the starting pitching has been very good this year.

I don’t have a problem at all with Larry Rothschild as pitching coach.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 26, 2010 7:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

You mean the next manager?

Larry Rothschild will be Cubs pitching coach as long as Jim Hendry is GM.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 26, 2010 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

I did mean manager

I figured the new guy might want his own people.

by Not Bruce Froemming on Jul 26, 2010 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

he won't GET his own people.

Larry and Rudy are already pretty much guaranteed to be here with the next manager.

by HuskerCorner on Jul 29, 2010 8:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

He'll get SOME of his own people....

… but not all.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 29, 2010 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

I was critical of Rothschild...

…in years past, and it was because of the number of walks the Cub’s staff would give up each and every year. I understand some of that was due to the fact they had a lot of power arms, but they also had a tendency to “nibble” way too much as opposed to attacking the strike zone.

IMO, Piniella has had a positive influence in this area, because from the get go, he made it clear that he absolutely loathed pitchers walking guys. I think this is one main reason the Sox pitching coach has had the success he has, by preaching attacking the strike zone and getting ahead of hitters. I have seen a change in the Cub’s pitchers approach in this area in the last few years.

One thing I never blamed Rothschild for was the injuries to Wood, Prior etc., as there wasn’t anything he could do about that. Technically, he probably is a decent pitching coach and it appears the Cub’s pitchers have gotten more aggressive which I like.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jul 28, 2010 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

Randy Wells...

…recently said on Chicago Tribune Live that Oneri Fleita was the big reason why Marmol and himself were converted from catchers to pitchers.

As for the sucess they’ve had at the Major League level, I agree with you that Larry is a big part of that.

"Pounding sand since 1982...."

by cubswynn on Jul 26, 2010 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

Larry is Dave Duncan-lite

Anyone that thinks Rothschild is a problem (suprisingly there are some here) needs to have their head examined.

by JSB on Jul 25, 2010 6:52 PM CDT reply actions  

Duncan...

…has proven over many years, that he is “head and shoulders” above anyone else.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jul 28, 2010 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

This.

Duncan is the best and it’s silly to use him to compare, have expectations that our pitching coach will be as good as him. There’s only one Duncan, he’s always going to work with Tony, and Tony does not want to manage the Cubs. So if you want someone better than Rothschild, fine, find someone who is and is available….but don’t tell me he has to work the same or as good as Duncan as that’s impossible to get. Whether Rothschild is as good as him is irrelevant. I get that JSB and you are not saying he should, but I sure have seen that as part of criticism of Rothschild before.

Starlin Castro singles on a pop up to catcher Jason LaRue.
Ryan Theriot scores. Two out -Gameday 7/23/10

by Sandberg's evil twin on Jul 28, 2010 11:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

see my sig line

I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119

by hansman1982 on Jul 25, 2010 8:33 PM CDT reply actions  

Great diary...

The casual fan tends not to appreciate the work Rothschild has done for this team.

Now… if we could only get some hitting…

Proud recipient of a hot dog shot from the Iowa Cubs hot dog gun.

by IowaCubs- on Jul 26, 2010 11:50 AM CDT reply actions  

I apprciate what Larry

has done/is doing for the pitchers on this team. He’s always bashed when they fail but hardly praised when they do well. I think some people just like to bitch.

A lovely story:

One day, long, long ago, there lived a woman who didn't whine, nag or bitch. That would be me....

But that was a long time ago and it was just that one day.

The end

by sue369 on Jul 26, 2010 12:13 PM CDT reply actions  

Rothschild has really grown on me as a pitching coach. He has taken marginal guys

like Silva and Dempster and turned them into serviceable starters. It is no fluke that this team leads the league in quality starts. If Hendry had aquired some decent help in the bullpen, that group would be leading as well. In my opinion, Rothschild is a top-notch pitching coach.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Jul 26, 2010 12:59 PM CDT reply actions  

you Rothschild sympathizer

how dare you try to back a guy…what are you going to stand by him while he single-handedly helps to keep this rotation as one of the best in the biz? God next you will say that when Ramirez is healthy he is one of the best hitters in the league or that Byrd is a good team player and busts his butt on every play…god this is worse than people saying that Bradley needed to go….

I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119

by hansman1982 on Jul 26, 2010 1:13 PM CDT reply actions  

What has been the rap against Rothschild?

I’m not sure what fans have had against him. Is it the mound visits, after which the Cubs pitcher may or may not be effective? Is it that he is not Dave Duncan? Or some fans just want someone – look for Greg Maddux’s face in the night sky – else? Or is Larry just an easy name to rag on?

"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas

by RiskyBusiness on Jul 26, 2010 1:20 PM CDT reply actions  

Probably all of the above, RiskyBusiness...

which is unfortunate. Larry Rothschild has done good work here. I suspect the pitchers who don’t respond well to his work would struggle with someone else too. Ultimately, the pitcher himself has to decide if he’s going to use what coaching Rothschild is offering.

"Pinky, are you pondering what I'm pondering?"--The Brain

by brook on Jul 26, 2010 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

I guess I held the Prior/Wood fiasco against him.

I will fess up and say I wasn’t a Rothschild fan until I read this post.

I had thought Oscar Acosta (Rothschild’s predecessor) was the reason Prior and Wood turned out so good, and then, Rothschild came in and they went down the tubes (didn’t Acosta leave because he got in a dispute with someone, possibly Dusty?). However, it’s occurred to me that, after decades of watching the Cubs, it would be hard to beat the consistency of their starting pitching in the last decade, most of which was on Rothschild’s watch. I especially appreciate the points made by made by the poster, which really objectively make the point.

Rock on Larry!

By the way, Acosta died in a car accident in 2006. His son, Ryan Acosta, was drafted by the Cubs in ‘07 and is in their minor league system. Here’s a link:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Oscar_Acosta

IF IT TAKES FOREVER!!

by Cubfansince1957 on Jul 27, 2010 12:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

It was Don Baylor who forced Acosta out.

For whatever reason, those two simply could not work together. I can’t remember if Rothschild came in while Baylor or Bruce Kimm was still there in ’02, but Rothschild was been here at least since the beginning of the Dusty Baker era. He was the pitching coach in 2003 for sure.

I think the fact that the 2003 rotation of Wood-Prior-Clement-Zambrano-Estes (I still want to cry when I look at that rotation) never panned out the way it should have was a big reason that Rothschild has always had his critics. I’ve said this before, but if Rothschild was ever fired by the Cubs, he’d have another lucrative Major League job within an hour, and the only reason it would take that long would be to give him time to sort through all the offers coming in.

"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Jul 27, 2010 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions  

I suppose the 2003 theory is a possible cause

But Rothschild’s not the one that threw the hissy fit in the LF corner or missed a routine 6-4-3 . . . and neither were any of his starters.

by Shanghai Badger on Jul 27, 2010 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions  

Agreed, SB

I’ll always maintain that if Alou hadn’t blown up like that, nobody ever would have heard of Bartman.

by Not Bruce Froemming on Jul 27, 2010 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

The only time that Larry has failed was the inability to get the best out of Zambrano

but the large part in that failure was Carlos himself. Oh, and how has Marshall done as a reliever??? I give credit to him and Larry for that.

by braziliancubsfan on Jul 26, 2010 2:30 PM CDT reply actions  

I'm not sure...

…too many guys get the best out of Zambrano. Although, I would be interested in seeing what either Don Copper or Duncan could do with him.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jul 28, 2010 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

That's good stuff

I’m one of the more vocal critics in game threads….all the gascan references on mound visits…..but I do recognize his value with starters.

Ultimately it just boils down to my own inability to let go of the notion that the Cubs had two aces at one point…and even though injury/circumstance/other factors conspired to prematurely dismantle that foundation, Rothschild and his damn towel drills are the lasting image…

WWOZ.org - New Orleans Jazz and Heritage Station

by Gibbon Jockey on Jul 26, 2010 5:45 PM CDT reply actions  

Blame it on Larry?

My one issue with the Cubs pitching staff has always been there seeming lack of execution/ability to convert once they get ahead in counts. I have no stats to back me up but they seem to get to alot of good counts and then have no closing pitch in crunch time. Maybe that’s not Larry’s fault because he got them deep in the game and in position but damn is it frustrating.

by KyCubsFan on Jul 26, 2010 10:23 PM CDT reply actions  

That's a decent article.

I didn’t go through the whole list but you can make stats say what you want. Examples below. Also there is no mention of the pitchers who left the Cubs and had success elsewhere.

I am just saying from a fan’s perspective its always been frustrating our guys get up 0-2 or 1-2 and end up walking the guy or having one drilled for a home run. If Rothy is Dave Duncan lite then these rooks with 95 MPH stuff would be ok. As Al pointed out in his recap 5 games won by the young bullpen would have made a huge difference this year.

Clement ages 26-29 so could be expected w/out LR
Alfonseca ERA+ less with Cubs than before and after
Mike Remlinger ages 37 and 38 as the OP said about Maddux I assume he didn’t learn anything he didn’t already know.
LaTroy Hawkins, Kevin Gregg, and Aaron Heilman: I will throw open to the board if they view this trio’s time with the Cubs as a success

by KyCubsFan on Jul 27, 2010 8:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure Larry works with that much

I thought that was the bullpen coach. But I’m not 100% sure

by LouPiniellaIsRetiring on Jul 27, 2010 11:22 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Nicely reasoned post

Much appreciated

"Wait, are you saying I'm a sunshine-pumping, koolaid-drinking, Soriano-loving, rainbow-rising, unicorn-riding, double-clutching, Sweet Lou-backing, Hendry-supporting, hey hey whaddya saying, Cubs are going all the waying, glass is overflowing, Rothschild is all-knowing, Cubs fan? - ballhawk

by vonde6 on Jul 26, 2010 11:39 PM CDT reply actions  

Dempster

Was a starter before he was a reliever.

by zam on Jul 27, 2010 2:35 AM CDT reply actions  

has to

be a reason larry has survived 3 possibly 4 managers. kept harden healthy,silva has doubled his wins. just a couple of examples. im sure if sandberg is given the job larry will be kept.

by NOMAR on Jul 28, 2010 7:37 AM CDT reply actions  

I think he's keeping the job

regardless of who the next manager is. According to Al, so long as Hendry is around, so will be Larry.

by Not Bruce Froemming on Jul 28, 2010 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

That's what I've heard.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

Not acceptable.

What’s your point here? Got one? Got a reasonable critique of him?

Save remarks like this for the cubs.com message board.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Aug 1, 2010 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

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