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Tyler Colvin = Alfonso Soriano


Tyler Colvin is the new young player everybody likes and Alfonso Soriano is the aging left fielder who is still having a productive season. You wouldn't think they would be similar players but they are.

Star-divide

This is Strikeout Rate

5310_847_of_cseason_full_4_20100724_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

 

This is Walk Rate

5310_847_of_cseason_full_3_20100726_medium

via www.fangraphs.com


 

via www.fangraphs.com

 

 

This is OBP

5310_847_of_cseason_full_1_20100724_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

 

 

This is SLG

5310_847_of_cseason_full_2_20100724_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

 

 

This is AVG

5310_847_of_cseason_full_0_20100724_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

 

This is ISO

5310_847_of_cseason_full_6_20100724_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

 

This is a pretty small sample size for Colvin but still it shows how similar these players are.

Yep Alfonso Soriano and Tyler Colvin are the same exact player. Yes Colvin's numbers aren't exactly like Soriano's numbers but they are both pretty similar: both strikeout a ton, they don't walk, they hit for power, and are not adept at getting on base.

That's not to say those players aren't good. Colvin and Soriano have been huge bright spots this season. Colvin is a better defender but they still are basically the same player.

This begs the question why in gods name is Colvin leading off? People got fed up with Soriano leading off so why aren't people mad now?

I really don't understand why Colvin leading off is all right with people but Soriano leading off is a bad idea (actually both leading off are bad ideas)

 

Think about how many more runs that Cubs would score with Colvin and Soriano in the middle of the order.

Hopefully next year Tyler will be the middle of the order. His power is just too good to keep in the leadoff spot.

Poll
Why is Tyler Colvin leading off?
Lou's the manager
121 votes
He runs fast
42 votes
He's a lefty
31 votes
I have no idea
100 votes

294 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

Comment 47 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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More AB's (and 0 alternatives)

Theriot’s doing better in 8-hole and Byrd (who also doesn’t walk) is producing in middle of order. Colvin gets the slot by default; certainly not a long-term answer. Bring in Brian Roberts to play 2B in 2011!! He’s a leadoff hitter with another few good years left if healthy.

by QuincyCub on Jul 27, 2010 2:29 PM CDT reply actions  

Starlin Castro isn't an alternative?

However, I would keep him there until the Cubs starting losing with him there.

"Get up or GET OUT THE WAY!"
~Stacy King

by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 27, 2010 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

Do NOT move Castro from the 2nd spot.

Im sorry, but if a 20 year old kid can walk in and hit .450+ with an OPS of over 1.200 so far in the 2nd half, you let him keep doing whatever the hell he’s doing.

by bdlugz on Jul 27, 2010 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's what I'm saying

Colvin probably DOESN’T belong in the leadoff spot, but the Cubs have been winning with him there, so, keep him there.

"Get up or GET OUT THE WAY!"
~Stacy King

by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 27, 2010 6:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

You love your Fangraphs charts, don't you?

That’s OK – I do, too. I know you mentioned it, but I think we need to REALLY emphasize sample size here. We’re talking about a rookie with 268 career PAs to a big league veteran with 6,204. Colvin is still developing, so we really don’t know what kind of player he is. Maybe he’ll still end up being comparable to Soriano, maybe not.

A simple answer to your question is this (and this is how I’m looking at it): Batting Tyler Colvin lead-off (and Castro second, for that matter), ensures him the maximum number of at-bats per game – which is good for his development. He needs major league ABs to develop and he’s getting them. Period.

By the way, I screwed up my poll vote. I voted for “He runs fast,” but meant to vote for “Lou’s the manager.” I think, in this case, Lou is doing the team a parting favor by giving Colvin and Castro this opportunity to get a lot of plate appearances. At this point in the season, the lineup order really isn’t all that important any more, and Lou knows this. Of course, the fact that Tyler does have good speed doesn’t hurt.

Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!

by daver on Jul 27, 2010 2:34 PM CDT reply actions  

Right - I don't think Tyler's a good candidate for the lead-off spot at all.

But, at the risk of being indelicate, this season is essentially over. So why not put him and Castro at the top of the order where they’ll get max ABs?

Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!

by daver on Jul 27, 2010 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

If Tyler Colvin continues to progress into what a young Alfonso Soriano was

then we have a gem on our hands. Especially since he’s actually better defensively

by HuskerCorner on Jul 27, 2010 2:45 PM CDT reply actions  

You have the strikeout rate graph posted twice

once as strikeout rate, once as walk rate

"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella

by El Borto on Jul 27, 2010 2:50 PM CDT reply actions  

and thanks for the post - quality

"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella

by El Borto on Jul 27, 2010 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

He is batting lead-off because the Cubs are winning games with the 1-2 punch of Colvin/Castro at the top of the lineup

A-well-a Byrd, Byrd, Byrd, well the Byrd is the word.

My new blog/ebay auction site: http://mikessportscards.weebly.com/

by mikegncb34 on Jul 27, 2010 2:51 PM CDT reply actions  

And there's no one else to hit lead off

It’s “pick a name out of a hat” time. I have no doubt that Piniella said “What the heck, why not?” as his justification to bat Colvin lead off. Honestly, at this point, I have no issues with that.

by jerry morales rules on Jul 27, 2010 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Also...

because he “should” see more fastballs. Yes, this was the same argument with Soriano leading off. The competition has found out that he does not lay off the low curveball. Hopefully, he will be able to adjust and not swing at the bad pitches. The difference with Colvin is that he is still young and learning in the big leagues, unlike Soriano who is a seasoned veteran.

by bazfan1234 on Jul 27, 2010 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

If Colvin is the lead off hitter in 2011 and 2012, then I'll get upset.

Also, if Covin can do in his rookie year what Soriano is doing in his 10th, I think that’s really good.

by jerry morales rules on Jul 27, 2010 2:58 PM CDT reply actions  

colvin isnt a long term solution

but nice stuff is happening when he does lead off

by jesus christos on Jul 27, 2010 2:59 PM CDT reply actions  

Question:

I’ve been wondering why it isn’t Castro/Colvin instead.

"Fasten those seatbelts!"-Pat Hughes

by katie casey on Jul 27, 2010 2:59 PM CDT reply actions  

TWSS

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Jul 27, 2010 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

wow. just wow.

"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin

by davidalanu on Jul 28, 2010 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions  

Colvin $ < Soriano $

If you want to know why fans aren’t upset with Colvin’s leading off and were with Soriano’s leading off, it’s that Soriano makes a lot more money than Colvin. Because Soriano made in the leadoff spot and is still making a lot more money than Colvin, fans expected more out of Soriano. Soriano came to the Cubs as a leadoff hitter. That added to the expectations. Colvin’s just a rookie that few envisioned to be a leadoff hitter.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Jul 27, 2010 3:02 PM CDT reply actions  

Injuries Have Slowed Him Down

I expected his stolen base total to decline as he got older, but the injuries have expedited that process. I believe fans expected too much out of Soriano anyway. It isn’t Soriano’s fault that he got the fat contract.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Jul 27, 2010 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's a pretty bad reason

Why does Lou care what the fans / media think?

That’s really the sole reason for this decision though.

by Wreckard on Jul 27, 2010 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

OPS+ 123 So Far

I’ve been impressed with Soriano this season, and he could end up with 30+ HR’s. This could very well be his best season since 2007. I haven’t been unhappy with his defense either.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Jul 27, 2010 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

Injury free too.

"Get up or GET OUT THE WAY!"
~Stacy King

by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 27, 2010 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yes

Props to Sori for a great year so far. Too bad it came when every other vet had a terrible one.

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Jul 28, 2010 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions  

The two do appear to have similarities as hitters...

I’ll say this:

1. Colvin would be fortunate to be compared to Soriano as a hitter
2. I don’t think Colvin is a long-term fit at leadoff, for the same reasons that Soriano wasn’t a great fit at leadoff.
3. I’m okay with Colvin getting the extra AB now (by batting leadoff) to develop as a hitter – so long as the team doesn’t envision him there long-term.

by SouthernCub on Jul 27, 2010 3:27 PM CDT reply actions  

And

1. Soriano would be fortunate to be compared to Colvin in terms of hustle.
2. Soriano would be fortunate to be compared to Colvin in terms of baseball IQ.
3. Soriano would be fortunate to be compared to Colvin in terms of OF defense even when you consider Soriano’s accurate arm.

Compare them if you will as hitters but don’t mistake that side of the game by saying they are similar “players”. They’re not. Colvin plays much harder and actually runs the bases.

"When the day comes with that last winning run and I'm crying and covered in beer. I'll look to the sky and know I was right to think someday we'll go all the way." - Vedder

by krummy12 on Jul 28, 2010 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

No disagreement about that...

Let’s just leave it at this:
1. Colvin will be fortunate to be compared to Soriano as an overall baseball player.

As hitters, they have some potential similaries. Defensively and hustle-wise, Colvin is better. Overall though, until Colvin proves himself, he’s still looking up at Soriano as a player.

Let’s hope Colvin continues to prove himself.

by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

There is no comparison between them as hitters

Soriano has put up monster seasons, Colvin has not … no comparison.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Jul 28, 2010 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Because in order for them to be the same player

You have to bat him leadoff for many years….duh.

by Arbusto on Jul 27, 2010 3:41 PM CDT reply actions  

I think I can answer this
This begs the question why in gods name is Colvin leading off? People got fed up with Soriano leading off so why aren’t people mad now?

I think people were fed up with Soriano because:
1. He was not hitting well enough to hit at the top of the order. In 07 and 08, it was the lack of SBs compared to 06. In 09, it was everything.
2. He was reluctant to move down in the order.

Colvin, of course, has shown none of that.

Best thing for Soriano in 2010 – He has been practically locked in at 6th in the order. 83% of his ABs there.

"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas

by RiskyBusiness on Jul 27, 2010 3:49 PM CDT reply actions  

I think people were fed up with Soriano because:



2. He was reluctant to move down in the order.

Colvin, of course, has shown none of that.

So… in order to be accepted as a leadoff hitter you have to not want to bat there?

by Wreckard on Jul 27, 2010 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

I didn't imply that

Fans got mad at Soriano batting first. I think mostly for his lack of lead-off hitter skills (take walks, SBs) and then for his reluctance to moving down in the order.

Colvin, as you would expect from a rookie, will bat wherever Lou writes his name down.

Comparing the 2 players stats and then concluding that people should fed up with Colvin batting lead-off is incorrect. I don’t think the two situations are comparable.

"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas

by RiskyBusiness on Jul 27, 2010 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

funny thing is

despite all the fervor about soriano as a leadoff hitter, he wasn’t actually bad at it until 2009. his splits in hitting leadoff as a cub:

2007: 308/345/579 in 577 PAs
2008: 287/350/544 in 492 PAs
2009: 228/294/421 in 332 PAs

maybe the conclusion isn’t that people should be fed up with colvin leading off, maybe it’s that they never should have been fed up with soriano leading off.

by circuitclout on Jul 27, 2010 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

Right

I think the fact that an comparable player is being regarded as a success in the leadoff spot says more about why you shouldn’t make personnel decisions based on press / fan pressure.

by Wreckard on Jul 27, 2010 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

From what I heard

Soriano wasn’t reluctant to move from the lead off spot. When asked, he always said he’d bat where Piniella put him. Whether there was another message behind the scenes is a different matter, but at least publically, Soriano said all the right things.

by jerry morales rules on Jul 27, 2010 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Colvin + Castro at #1 + #2

Have led to more runs per game. Even in many of their losses they have scored more than the usual runs we’ve come to expect in the last few months.

Oh and currently they are 12-10 for the month with the potential of going 16-10. That would be the first month the Cubs had a winning record. Yes I know there are other factors such as Ramirez finally hitting.

It might not seem like it’s working…but if they are playing better this month…

by ak123 on Jul 27, 2010 4:45 PM CDT reply actions  

Agreed

But alteast its an improvement over April and May.

I really want this team to finish above .500 and I think they can if they continue playing like they have since the ASG.

by ak123 on Jul 27, 2010 6:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think it's fair to say Soriano is comfortable and hitting well hitting where he does now.

Why mess with that. The better question would be why is Tyler Colvin leading off. And to that I say, well there hasn’t been a better alternative…at least of those put in there so far this year. I’m sure you can come up with stats to support a lot of guys at leadoff, but I don’t think you could say Riot or Dome who have been in there this year worked out well.

Starlin Castro singles on a pop up to catcher Jason LaRue.
Ryan Theriot scores. Two out -Gameday 7/23/10

by Sandberg's evil twin on Jul 27, 2010 6:21 PM CDT reply actions  

Colvin should be batting 4th

Finally the lefty bat to split Lee and Ramirez and instead he’s batting first. For the rest of this season I think Byrd, although he is not the prototypical lead-off hitter either, should be batting first. Byrd-Castro-Lee-Colvin-Ramirez-Soriano-Soto-Fontenot.

"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman

by BucknerKongCardenal on Jul 27, 2010 10:29 PM CDT reply actions  

Seriously, Colvin = Soriano

 I don not think Colvin is the ideal lead off hitter, but Soriano has not been playing the game the right way for awhile. He doesn’t hustle down the line on ground balls, watches his big shots that sometimes don’t leave the park, fails to take extra bases when the situation arises, won’t even try to steal, and looks like he has the same fire that Colvin does. Just my opinion (and quite few others that I talk to) and I if we could get trade him, I would be all for it.
 Now I am pretty sure the numbers do not show any of this so I guess you have to leave up to people who notice the little things like Lou.

by GHCF2314 on Jul 27, 2010 11:08 PM CDT reply actions  

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