Cubs openly shopping Carlos Zambrano

Not a surprise at all. It sounds like they'll trade him for a bag of balls at this point.

over 1 year ago LouPiniellaIsRetiring 37 comments 0 recs |

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The "if anyone is interested"

part of Olney’s tweet is the key part.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jul 27, 2010 7:30 PM CDT reply actions

Fine.

But no eating 80% of his salary or anything like that. Don’t need to demand a lot in return, but salary relief better be the starting point of a Z trade.

Official MCM Pessimist.

Oh, I'm sorry; did I poke a hole in the echo chamber?

by The Jade Scorpion on Jul 27, 2010 8:32 PM CDT reply actions

Wishful thinking.

Z’s salary:
2010 remaining: ~$8M
2011: ~$18M
2012: $18M
2013: unlikely to reach vesting option

To move Z, the Cubs will be on the hook for the rest of this season and probably 2/3 of each of the next two seasons. With the “quality” of Z’s pitching and the tractor-trailer full of baggage, nobody else is taking more than a $6M annual risk on this guy.

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Jul 27, 2010 9:46 PM CDT up reply actions

As I mentioned at SB Nation Chicago...

… the money situation could be evened out by trading Z to the Sox for Peavy.

Before you laugh, read the post, if you haven’t already.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 27, 2010 10:11 PM CDT up reply actions

That would be incredible for the Cubs

And might work for the White Sox as well. It sure would beat trading Z for Aaron Cook or someon like that.

"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman

by BucknerKongCardenal on Jul 27, 2010 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions

Look at you, pushing traffic....

Couple issues with this potential deal. You ask

So why not roll the dice on Carlos Zambrano?

First, it really doesn’t do the White Sox any good this year. There’s really no reason to think of Z as a difference maker as a starter. If Z pitches as well as he possibly can, then he can be a difference maker. But what are really the chances he pitches at that level. You’re much more likely getting the 5-6 inning, average pitcher with a temper (we’ve heard the “this time it will be different” speech before). In other words, I’m not sure why I would think Z will be a better starter the rest of the year than Hudson.

The other issue is PV’s health. Within a matter of lines, you build a case that there’s no reason PV won’t be ready by February… then say if he isn’t ready, insurance covers the cost. Either way… that seems like an asset the CHWS would be interested in.

So, if you’re Kenny Williams, to make this deal you have to believe: a) you can “fix” Z, b) you can “control” Z, c) Z’s plummeting K rate somehow plays well at the South Side little league launching pad, d) this set of circumstances culminates immediately in order to help your club, and e) PV will never again be fully healthy.

So while I don’t find the suggestion laughable, I find myself hard pressed to see Kenny talking himself into this. But let’s certainly hope it happens… it would be a boost for the Cubs, whatever they end up with in PV.

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Jul 28, 2010 12:54 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

and really

if you are an embattled gm working with new ownership like jim hendry how does it help your job security to trade a “healthy” (i’m assuming) but unstable zambrano for a pitcher coming off a major injury and surgery in his throwing shoulder?

by circuitclout on Jul 28, 2010 8:50 AM CDT up reply actions

It definitely helps you, because...

… with Z, you are taking the risk that he’ll blow up again, which you definitely do not want.

Peavy, at least, you know will be a good teammate, presuming he can pitch.

The fact that the Cubs have apparently put the “for sale” sign on Z means that ownership has likely signed off on dealing him somewhere.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 8:52 AM CDT up reply actions

that's interesting logic

so you definitely don’t want a pitcher that can pitch but might be mean, so you’d rather have a pitcher that might not be able to pitch but is a nice guy?

i also wonder about the insurance angle on peavy. do insurance policies on contracts transfer or would the cubs have to take out a new policy upon acquiring peavy, if a deal were to happen? i’d imagine it would be hard to get an insurance policy on peavy after an injury that requires surgery. i don’t know anything about the subject though. any insight?

by circuitclout on Jul 28, 2010 9:08 AM CDT up reply actions

Good question about the insurance...

… I honestly don’t know. I assumed such insurance is transferred when a player is traded. Remember, Peavy has already been traded once while on the DL.

I’m not so sure Z can ever pitch again for the Cubs. Too many bridges have been burned. I think he has to go elsewhere to have any success.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions

One of the issues though

is whether Z really can pitch anymore.

Even before Z got sent to the pen, which turned into a disaster, he was pitching at a #3 starter level.

So the choice to acquire Z isn’t as straight forward as you’ve presented.

The choice Al has presented Kenny Williams with is more like this:

Do you trade a probably injury prone starter with more upside and the chance that insurance may cover some of his salary for a guy with Randy Wells like ability who is paid like a true ace and may be a “clubhouse cancer”.

Neither Z or PV is a good asset right now… and that’s the point of this deal… but IMO, PV has more “value” than Z.

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Jul 28, 2010 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions

You may be right.

I suggested this deal because of Ozzie’s connection with Z and Kenny Williams’ tendency to roll the dice and make deals no other GM would touch.

Sometimes they pay off big time for him — as did that Carl Everett deal in 2005, and getting Alex Rios last year.

It just might work for them. Or it could blow up in their faces. Point is, Williams is the GM who takes risks like this. If I’m Jim Hendry, I give him a call.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions

We agree on this part.

If I’m Hendry, I absolutely make that call (and FWIW, I added more in the game recap thread near the bottom).

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Jul 28, 2010 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions

define value

i think you are undervaluing zambrano/wells and overvaluing peavy, given the current situation.

based on ERA+, most years there are only 60-70 qualified starters that post a league average or better line (ops+ = 100+). Wells has been one of those guys the last two years and until this year zambrano has as well. my math says that makes both a #2 starter or a very good #3 for most teams. i’d venture to guess that randy wells’ trade value would be immense as he would be able to help just about any team in baseball depending on where they can slot him and is under team control for a while yet. even if zambrano’s upside is only the pitcher he’s been from 2007-09 he’s still an asset, just a grossly overpaid one.

given what we know about peavy right now it’s very unlikely he can return to his cy young-caliber level with the possibility that he cannot pitch at all. there isn’t much “value” there, just wishful thinking.

by circuitclout on Jul 28, 2010 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions

IMO, you are misreading

My point wasn’t to pick on Wells, at all. I like Wells… and totally agree he would have solid trade value.

The point was that the Cubs are paying Z like an ace and he is pitching more like a middle of the rotation starter (e.g., Randy Wells). That certainly has value… everyone needs solid mid-rotation starters.

My issue is that value (mid-rotation starter) isn’t worth the salary and headaches you get with Z.

With PV on the other hand… I’m not aware of any “clubhouse” issues with him. The doctor performing the surgery seemed to think he would have a positive recovery.

So, IMO, even if PV only recovers to be a mid-rotation starter… that is an upgrade on Z if for no other reason than you are subtracting the headaches.

And actually, if PV never pitches again, that has some value because insurance would apparently cover his salary. That would have essentially the effect of wiping that obligation nearly off the books, which would be a great thing for the Cubs.

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Jul 28, 2010 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions

the insurance

i guess is the key question. i certainly don’t know how it works and would love to know if Peavy’s contract (or Zambrano’s for that matter) are or could be covered by insurance and whether that insurance is transferable.

by circuitclout on Jul 28, 2010 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions

The one thing that may interest the White Sox is value this year

They are contending, and Peavy won’t help that. Zambrano mignt. That plus the Ozzie angle could get them in the market.

by ClarkFan on Jul 28, 2010 5:18 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm sure they've at least thought about it.

But that’s a heckuva risk on a maybe. If they were getting 2006/7 Carlos, that would be one thing. This version? Eh……..

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Jul 28, 2010 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions

Peavy may have thrown his last pitch in MLB

Or, it could be the next one.

by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Jul 28, 2010 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions

The money may even out but the risk doesn't

If Peavy is never healthy again, the White Sox wouldn’t be on the hook for the full sum owed, as a large part of the money owed to him will presumably be covered by insurance.

If Zambrano is never good again, the Sox would be stuck paying all of what’s owed.

The White Sox would incur increased financial risk by taking on this deal. The Cubs may not benefit either, as I’m not sure they’d be able to insure Peavy’s contract given his current condition.

There’s a reason DL trades are extremely rare and usually involve guys due to come off soon.

by Wreckard on Jul 28, 2010 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Does insurance like that transfer from team to team?

Because the Sox took a similar (granted, not as much) risk last year when they traded for Peavy. At the time they got him, there was no guarantee he’d come back until this year.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions

I have no idea.

I would assume not. It’s hard to find info on this stuff, it only pops up in the bizarre cases like Albert Bell and Jeff Bagwell.

by Wreckard on Jul 28, 2010 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions

i did some searching

cause i had nothing better to do today and there isn’t a lot of info on the subject out there on the internets. according to published reports the padres did take out an insurance policy on peavy but i couldn’t find any info on whether that policy could (or did) transfer to the white sox when he was traded.

in general, it seems that insurance policies:

only cover the first three years of a contract
require a player to miss at least 45 days of a season to injury, sometimes more
cover 50-80% of a player’s salary
often exclude injuries to a pitcher’s shoulder and/or elbow

so even if peavy’s contract is insured there is still considerable financial risk, somewhere between $10.6 mil and $20.5 million in team commitment, even if he never throws another pitch. of course, if he can pitch you’re on the hook for the full $37 million.

also, keep in mind that peavy signed his extension in December 2007 but the contract started with the 2010 season. That two-season gap between the contract being signed and the insurance policy starting probably hints at either a very expensive policy or very minimal coverage. i’d imagine we will know more about this soon. since peavy will spend the last 88 days (i think) of the season on the DL if there is insurance the white sox should be able to file a claim for a portion of peavy’s 2010 salary.

by circuitclout on Jul 28, 2010 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions

Thank you for doing this research.

I really had no idea how this kind of thing worked. It may be true that such insurance doesn’t transfer when a player is traded.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions

this is sound suggestion

Although I recall back a few years ago there was much discussion regarding Z dropping his arm angle where he went from a dominant ace with 93 MPH moving heavy two seam fastball and a rising 4-seam 95-98 MPH fastball to something now, a hittable 88-91 two seamer and occasionally 92 MPH four seamer. His problem is he does not have command to move his ball up/down, in/out.

Now I compare him to Bartelo Colon with issues…Peavy might be toast in a shoulder.

In both cases for the GM the risk is low….Z will probably give you innings for certain but effective is in question unless he has a brain transplant…Peavy might not pitch more than 50 innings in the next two years but if he heals might be a good pitcher like Carpenter.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Jul 29, 2010 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions