Pictures Of Lilly: Lefthander Solid, But Cashner Blasted In 6-1 Cubs Loss
by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 7:30 AM CDT
in Chicago Cubs Recaps
Email
PrintIf this really was Ted Lilly's final appearance in a Cubs uniform (and I'm betting it's not), at least he leaves us with something good to remember him by.
Ted matched Brett Myers for the first 5.2 innings but had to leave after reaching 113 pitches in the last of the sixth. Andrew Cashner finished off that inning... but then blew up in an ugly seventh that "featured" two hit batters, a squeeze bunt, and the final indignity, a grand slam from Lance Berkman.
The Cubs lost 6-1 to the Astros Tuesday night, and were spared the indignity of a shutout by Brett Myers because Tyler Colvin led off the ninth inning with a solo home run, his 16th. One more and he'll tie Mel Hall for the most by a Cubs lefthanded rookie batter since Hall hit 17 in 1983.
Lilly threw well enough, but if I were one of the many scouts in attendance last night in Houston, I'd go back to my GM and recommend acquiring Brett Myers, who was dominant and shut down the Cubs on two hits before Colvin's HR. Myers threw his second complete game of the season and lowered his ERA to 3.10, 12th in the National League.
More interesting last night was this tantalizing tweet from ESPN's Buster Olney:
Heard this: The Cubs have made it clear to other teams that they are ready to move Carlos Zambrano, if anyone is interested. #trades
... which is already being discussed in this FanShot, but I wanted to mention it here as well. As I posted there, I wrote about a possible "out there" type of deal for Z on SB Nation Chicago, sending him to the White Sox in exchange for the risk that Jake Peavy will never pitch again.
Commenter fsuapollo brought up this:
So, if you’re Kenny Williams, to make this deal you have to believe: a) you can "fix" Z, b) you can "control" Z, c) Z’s plummeting K rate somehow plays well at the South Side little league launching pad, d) this set of circumstances culminates immediately in order to help your club, and e) PV will never again be fully healthy.
That's a lot of "if"s, and this response is kind of too long to put in a comment in the FanShot, so let's take them one by one here.
a) "fix" Z -- the Sox are probably the one team that can do this, because of Ozzie Guillen's close personal relationship with Z. He's the one manager in baseball who actually has the chance of understanding why Z goes off the deep end -- likely, because Ozzie does that himself from time to time.
b) "controlling" Z -- see the point above.
c) the plummeting K rate -- this isn't really true; Z has 53 strikeouts in 55.2 major league innings this year. But Z is really most effective when he has his heavy sinker working, rather than trying to be a strikeout pitcher. Also, "little league" was a little over the top, but the Cell is definitely a launching pad, one reason Ted Lilly wouldn't do well there. Z would have to become more of a sinkerballer to succeed there.
d) "immediate" success -- Kenny Williams took on Alex Rios' contract via waivers last year. People laughed. Kenny got the last laugh. Obviously, he can't wait a year this time -- but then, the Sox aren't where they were last year. This would be a roll-the-dice type of move, no doubt, because the Sox need pitching help. It could pay off big-time.
e) PV never being fully healthy -- that would be the risk for both teams, right? The Sox can wait for spring training and hope he's healthy, but if they don't make the deal, they lose out on a postseason spot AND Peavy isn't healthy, they lose on all three counts. Z might help them to the postseason, which would allow the Sox to tweak the Cubs and Cubs fans again. Normally, I wouldn't be for that but the relationship between Z and the Cubs seems irreparably broken, especially now that the Cubs have gone public with their desire to trade him.
Get it done, Jim. Seriously. And if not to the White Sox, then to someone else (Omar Minaya, are you answering your phone?) in a bad-contract exchange.
Beyond all this, the Cubs will try to win the series in Houston this afternoon. The game preview thread will post at 11:30 am CDT.
330 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Zambrano for...
… Linebrink and possibly Teahen with the Cubs eating the difference in salary.
"Don’t belittle entire fanbases or neighborhoods…simply because they are within proximity to some people who don’t operate (or look) the same way you do." - AndrewJStone 6/29/2010
No thanks.
If that’s your best offer I’d rather send him to the Mets for Oliver Perez.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I'll take my chances with Peavy rather...
… than gamble on Zambrano being a good pitcher AND being a good team member.
"Don’t belittle entire fanbases or neighborhoods…simply because they are within proximity to some people who don’t operate (or look) the same way you do." - AndrewJStone 6/29/2010
You don't think having Ozzie with him would help him?
Ozzie is likely the one manager who could deal with Z.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Yes I think it would help.
And the Sox have a history of players with a history of trouble settling in with them (Carl Everett being one I immediately think of). Plus Zambrano has repeatedly stated that he is a Sox fan, grew up as such (one level-headed decision of his). On the other hand there still is a question of whether Zambrano can be an effective major league pitcher and that is indeed the major question.
Peavy may not pitch effectively again but he’ll always be a good teammate. Zambrano may not pitch effectively again and there is a serious question about his being a good teammate.
"Don’t belittle entire fanbases or neighborhoods…simply because they are within proximity to some people who don’t operate (or look) the same way you do." - AndrewJStone 6/29/2010
I agree with most of what you say here.
I mainly suggested it because of Ozzie’s relationship with Z, and the fact that Kenny Williams will often roll the dice on deals like this (which he did when he acquired Peavy in the first place).
Might be worth a shot.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
And another thing.
(The White Sox) have played almost two hours and they’re in the top of the fifth. The pace of AL games can be glacial. - by Al Yellon on Jul 24, 2010 4:56 PM
2010 Game times up to and including 7/25/2010:
- Cubs 166.2 minutes
- Sox 161.7 minutes
In the 2 games since then?
7/26
180 mins Cubs
150 mins Sox
7/27
162 mins Cubs
124 mins Sox
"Don’t belittle entire fanbases or neighborhoods…simply because they are within proximity to some people who don’t operate (or look) the same way you do." - AndrewJStone 6/29/2010
So it wasn't enough to email this to me?
We both cited anecdotal evidence.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Repetition for emphasis
I cited facts though.
"Don’t belittle entire fanbases or neighborhoods…simply because they are within proximity to some people who don’t operate (or look) the same way you do." - AndrewJStone 6/29/2010
as Uncle Buck said
get the pole out of your keester and we’ll get along fine
Linus: Life is rarely all one way, Charlie Brown. You win some, you lose some. Charlie Brown: Really? Gee, that'd be neat.
by CyberCyclist on Jul 28, 2010 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions
When confronted with facts that...
… prove your impression is wrong, some people candidly admit their impression was wrong. Some say thanks for the info. Then some ignore the facts staring them in the face and then get a dig at the person.
"Don’t belittle entire fanbases or neighborhoods…simply because they are within proximity to some people who don’t operate (or look) the same way you do." - AndrewJStone 6/29/2010
I didn't say...
… that all Sox games, or all AL games, have a “glacial” pace. I said “some”, which is undeniably true.
You didn’t, as I emailed you, include the interminable Yankees/Red Sox games in your calculations. Perhaps you’d come up with a different result if you did.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Ok
But I don’t recall where you said “some.”
I could say the same thing then about a random Cubs game and make a statement about NL games if I follow your reasoning.
The point is though that you were watching a Sox game and commented about the length/pace of that game. And the point is that Sox games are shorter this year than Cubs games.
Is that true of the Yankees/Red Sox and the AL/NL in general? I’d like to see that info.
"Don’t belittle entire fanbases or neighborhoods…simply because they are within proximity to some people who don’t operate (or look) the same way you do." - AndrewJStone 6/29/2010
OK, I didn't say "some". I said "can be".
Which is another qualifier.
The particular Sox game I was talking about was, in fact, a long game. That is undeniable, and commenting on the pace of the game, I said AL games “can be” glacially-paced. This is also undeniable.
Since you brought it up, why don’t you do some research into AL/NL game times and report back to us. I made an offhand remark. You made it a big deal.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
point, counter point.
Is that what discussion boards are all about? You made a point and I posted counter facts. Hardly a big deal.
We’ve corresponded frequently in the past via email. So when you never acknowledged or responded to my email it’s hardly a big deal to post that information here.
"Don’t belittle entire fanbases or neighborhoods…simply because they are within proximity to some people who don’t operate (or look) the same way you do." - AndrewJStone 6/29/2010
Oddly enough..
…. I do have an email in my sent folder that I sent to you yesterday morning. I have no idea why you never received it.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Me neither.
I’ve checked both my Gmail and Mac accounts and could not find a recent email from you.
"Don’t belittle entire fanbases or neighborhoods…simply because they are within proximity to some people who don’t operate (or look) the same way you do." - AndrewJStone 6/29/2010
Sox game time
On the other hand, the Sox played a game a couple weeks ago that took just 1:50. Not sure when the Cubs last had a game that short.
"They found a delivery in my flaw." - Dan Quisenberry
Let it die, Crawdad.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
RUN FOR THE HILLS!
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Yep.
www.facebook.com/craighudak
by Craig in South Bend on Jul 28, 2010 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions
I guess you missed...
… any of the umpteen scintillating discussions about Ken The Hawk Harrelson here.
"Don’t belittle entire fanbases or neighborhoods…simply because they are within proximity to some people who don’t operate (or look) the same way you do." - AndrewJStone 6/29/2010
Don't you think you could find something better to take issue with?
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Mount Washington conquered July 5, 2010
State high point count: 3/50
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Jul 28, 2010 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah...
… why bother discussing baseball related matters here. And one that Al mentioned.
"Don’t belittle entire fanbases or neighborhoods…simply because they are within proximity to some people who don’t operate (or look) the same way you do." - AndrewJStone 6/29/2010
I wouldn't want a Reebok Pump shoe with swiss cheese holes in it for Oliver Perez.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
The Cubs should avoid Perez
I live in NJ, and the Mets are always on here, obviously. Perez is as much, if not more, of a cancer than Z. Everybody on that team hates him. It really says something when a player outright rejects the minor leagues. Perez is also, if you can believe it, worse as a pitcher than Z.
by Mulhollandmania on Jul 28, 2010 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
If this really was Ted Lilly's final appearance in a Cub's uniform...
I’d be very happy for him. I’d be sad for me, but he deserves better.
"Fasten those seatbelts!"-Pat Hughes
sad but true
"Lou Piniella's been a great manager for a long time and I stand by him completely"
Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Jul 28, 2010 7:54 AM CDT up reply actions
I kind of feel this way too.
But the selfish part of me wants him to stay.
A lovely story:
One day, long, long ago, there lived a woman who didn't whine, nag or bitch. That would be me....
But that was a long time ago and it was just that one day.
The end
Oh believe me,
I would rather he stay too.
"Fasten those seatbelts!"-Pat Hughes
by katie casey on Jul 28, 2010 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions
Ted's got all the lady love!
"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas
by RiskyBusiness on Jul 28, 2010 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions
I think youre right
Lilly stays Z goes…otherwise at least we didnt lose a game on the Cards last night. Colvin deserves mad props for RoY – 16 HR’s so far with limited playing time? Hopefulyl the Cubs at least do something by the deadline but I dont see much happening, certaintly not a blowing up of the team that many people on here have called for – fire sale’s only work when you have cheap players.
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
wow my comment contracdicts
I think if something does happen it will be Z – but I see nothing happening
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
Why?
Why would it be easy (or easier) to trade a guy with $40-plus million left on his deal, who’s had a terrible season and who hasn’t been right since 2008 than an effective, relatively cheap left-hander who’s been the model of consistency?
There’s no question that trading Z would be better than trading Lilly as far as the Cubs’ best interests. But as a practical matter, the chances of Z going and Lilly staying are incredibly remote.
I think that the return
might be better (even as a B FA) if we offer arbitration and he walks – if not then we have Lilly back for one more year
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
I would LOVE to know the answer
to that question.
by Damen Jackson on Jul 28, 2010 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions
do I repeat what I just said
or say it differently…I think (and so therefore I am hoping that Jimbo is thinking the same thing) that if we keep Lilly the return might be better down the road. So therefore he might be putting more effort into moving Z – now I have absolutely nothing to base this off of and am often wrong so take it at that….
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
Well, you didn't address Z in the previous post.
Your theory is based on the collective energy devoted to trading Z. That’s supposition, as you pointed out, and Lilly is so much more tradable it’s not even funny.
it could also be that there
is more interest from the Cubs side to be done with Z – we saw what happened when the club wanted to be done with Bradley…Is it just me or is the team playing better since Z was booted? I absolutely agree that Lilly is a much more tradeable asset, just a matter of doing what is best for the team and hope you can clear $10 mil a year of Z’s salary – he has 3 years left – so potentially $30 million? Or at least get someone who wont throw hissy fits in the dugout and then lash out at media members when leaving the stadium.
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
But hans ...
you can’t say one rumored trade is more likely than another just because one is more in the best interests of the Cubs.
I can say that
doesnt mean its going to happen – just making a prediction based on what I would do – keep Lilly for his intangibles to be passed along to the upstarts this September and see if he will re-sign this offseason for the south side of $10 million, otherwise thank him for his time and wave bye bye.
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
I wasn't picking on you
that was really more a open question to the room, so to speak.
by Damen Jackson on Jul 28, 2010 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Of course you can SAY that.
But do you honestly think that?
honestly
and you are going to hate me for this – I can see Lilly being dealt – but only for the right price which might include us eating some salary or involving a third team to move someone else such as Fukudome (quite frankly I dont care about moving Nady, Theriot, or Lee – they are all potentially gone after this year)…or if a thrid team and Fukudome cant be dealt then Hendry moving in on moving Z – I dont think Fukudome gets dealt, he is clearly a Japanese league player who has ok defense…
so – in summation – that I think Fukudome is undealable is what leads me to believe Z will be dealt before Lilly…
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
and the best interest
is why I would trade Z before Lilly…see my other comment for why I think Jim will trade Z before Lilly…
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
I know what you're saying.
But you’re talking about priorities, not likelihoods.
Of course...
…the Cubs are motivated to move Z, who wouldn’t be.
The questions becomes this; who would be motivated to take him and at what price?
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
who would be motivated to take Bradley?
this is why I was and still am against firing Hendry – he can trade like no-ones business.
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
If trades...
…were the dominant factor in building a good baseball organization, I may agree with you.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
ya
I think he is an above-average GM – he has given us success and 3 winning seasons in a row – has he made mistakes, absolutely, so has Theo Epstein – but all in all I like him and his ability to trade puts me ino the camp that wants to keep him…
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
Well...
…I disagree.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
and thats about the best that
can happen with any discussion involving Hendry’s employment status…
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
Welcome to the club, hans
All of us are just pulling stuff out of our butts and pretending that we know what it takes to be a big league GM.
It’s the internets!
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
oh ya
all of us sitting here claiming to be able to do a better job of GM, Owner, Manager, Pitcher, Fielder, Batter, Baserunner, etc… than the guys who are there…
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
I someone told Hendry...
…if you could only trade one player who would it be, he would jump at the chance to make that Zambrano (especially if they didn’t have to eat a lot of dough).
In reality, I don’t see that happening.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Not without eating some $, unless....
… they can get someone else’s bad contract in return. It worked with MB. It could work again.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I owe you a Big Gulp, Al.
Lilly wasn’t traded before last night’s game. I think I was being overly hopeful of a deal, because I’m ready for the Cubs to become sellers after Sunday — and a Lilly deal would signal that they don’t have any thoughts on trying to make a run/keeping what few decent trading chips they have.
But Al, I think you’re doing the same thing I did — you’re hoping in your predictions about Z and Lilly as opposed to sizing things up logically. You’re done with Z (understandably) and you obviously like and respect Lilly (understandably).
We have TONS of reports in recent weeks that would indicate Lilly will be dealt soon, and trading him is a helluva lot easier considering his recent performance, his contract and his lack of emotional issues. Maybe you’re hearing from Deep Goat than you’re telling here. But if you’re not, Lilly is MUCH more likely to be dealt this week than Z is.
If I were a scout at last night's game...
… as I wrote, I’d be telling my GM to go get Brett Myers, not Lilly.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I would too
When he is healthy and pitching well, Brett Myers has been a very good pitcher. However, Houston can ask for more since Myers also is signed next season for a reasonable amount.
That was the irony of the game alst night
both were auditioning for a trade, and both did well.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 28, 2010 8:23 AM CDT up reply actions
Come on.
There are 29 other teams in the majors. Just because Brett Myers pitched well (are the Astros even making him available?) doesn’t mean Lilly won’t be dealt.
It's possible a deal won't come together.
But unless you know more from inside sources than I do, I’d say the odds of Lilly getting traded are lower than Myers or Zambrano.
did you mean to say higher here?
Or are you doing a complete 180 from yesterday?
Honest question.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
It's more likely that Lilly will be traded than Myers and Z.
Sorry, if I was imprecise in my writing. But my position since yesterday hasn’t changed.
That's what I figured.
Thanks
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
There's more to making a deal...
… than just saying, “Well, we’re out of the race, this player’s contract is up and he’s leaving after the season, let’s dump him!”
There has to be a decent return. Otherwise, you keep the player and offer him arbitration. If he declines, you get a draft pick (or, IIRC, two in Lilly’s case) who could be BETTER than any return in trade.
If he accepts, he stays for (at least) one more year.
And, you have to find a trading partner who matches up with you.
None of this is easy to do.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Come on, Al.
I’m guessing Archie and everybody else is aware of the pluses and minuses of trading Lilly, and how difficult it can be to pull off a trade.
What I can’t figure is why you think that trading Z would be easier than trading Ted Lilly. And saying that the Cubs should be more motivated to trade Z than Lilly isn’t enough of an argument. It takes two to tango.
It really looks like you’re digging in for digging in’s sake.
I'm not saying it would be easier to trade Z.
Obviously, it wouldn’t. But the Cubs have put the “for sale” sign on him — and I don’t think this was necessarily expected (though many of us here speculated they might have to).
It definitely takes two to tango. You’re right about that. I think the Cubs make a minor deal, maybe two, before Saturday, and Ted Lilly starts on Monday at Milwaukee.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I think you're letting sentiment get in the way of your judgment, Al.
No disrespect intended.
I admit I'd like to see Ted stay.
I do think there’s a fair chance he will.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
It's very possible a deal won't work out before 7/31.
And having Lilly back for one season on a reasonable deal would be acceptable. Draft picks would be, too.
In a way, none of these options are terrible.
Can I ask a question?
Under what circumstance do you see Ted Lilly agreeing to a one-year deal with the Cubs? And on a deal that you would consider “reasonable”?
So, a 35 year-old Ted Lilly should pass on years and dollars if offered the chance to play for the Cubs? I don’t get it.
by Damen Jackson on Jul 28, 2010 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions
He could agree to a 1-year deal through arbitration, right?
That’s the only way it could work.
Why would he do that...
…if he can get the security of a multi year deal on the open market?
He may blow out his arm next year and be out a boatload of dough.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Would you...
…if you were in his shoes?
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Well, here's the thing:
If I’m incredibly loyal to the Chicago Cubs, I might consider it. And Al seems to think he’s pretty loyal.
But I don’t disagree with you, mainly because I wouldn’t ASSUME his loyalty is more important than tens of millions of dollars.
unless
he gets assurances that regardless of what happens he has some sort of income stream for the Cubs in the future, whether it is a front office gig or otherwise
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
How is that income...
…going to make up for what he would make on a multi year deal?
You guys are really reaching now.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Better than a one year deal...
…but I’ll bet he gets 3 on the open market.
What we don’t know, is whether spending 10-12 mil per year is where the Cubs want to put their resources with a pitcher of Lilly’s age.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
He'll be 35 in January....
… I don’t consider that to be “old” in this case, especially since he’s a lefthander.
I might even do two years with makeable incentives for a third year.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Again...
…we don’t know whether they want to dedicate that type of money for this particular situation.
If I was a GM and felt I was one reliable pitcher away from winning, I would consider giving Lilly 3 years at the right price, but I’m not sure the Cubs are looking at it that way, we’ll see.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
the main logic
behind my statement is if he is as loyal to the cubs he may be willing to make certain concessions on his contract
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
by hansman1982 on Jul 28, 2010 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions
same boat Rami is in
do you take less money next year and potentially the year after for more money over the next 4-5 years? and the money the year after is far from guarranteed
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
Apples and oranges.
Lilly has had a decent year. Ramirez has had a decent July after an AWFUL first half.
Not at all the same boat as Ramirez...
because unlike Ramirez, Lilly is having a pretty solid year and has been really healthy. Ramirez has had major injuries the last few years and really stunk early this year.
So Ramirez probably needs a year to prove he can be healthy and productive to get that last big contract.
ok the same boat I was referring to
was having to decide between short term money with a team you love to play for or longer term money for another team
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
by hansman1982 on Jul 28, 2010 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
The difference is in the amount of money
Lilly will likely get offered substantial money on the free agent market. Ramirez might not.
So for Lilly, the difference between short-term money to stay and long-term money to leave might be a substantial sum. For Ramirez, the difference might be minimal.
Hence the statement that it’s not really the same boat at all.
by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions
he might
I would, but then again being a Cubs fan who isnt in that situation might skew me…
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
And there's a fair chance that he will be gone...
I think your presentation of this doesn’t acknowledge that possibility.
Is it a foregone conclusion that he’s gone? Absolutely not. Is it a foregone conclusion that he stays? Absolutely not. Which is more likely? Hard/impossible for any of us to say.
Just like elgato is probably letting his hopes sway his opinion on the probability, I think you’re maybe letting your hopes sway your opinion in the other direction.
Trading Lilly would be the responsible thing to do
The Cubs aren’t winning this year. Lilly’s salary would be off the books and available for next year. The Cubs don’t need to resign him because there are several in house, cheaper options that deserve a shot at the starting rotation in 2011.
All signs point to Lilly being dealt, most likely by Saturday, and if not in August for sure…..
If you can get more than the value of two compensatory picks...
then you should make a deal – no question. Then, you’ve already gotten all the value you’d get from offering him arbitration and him declining.
And then, if both sides are really serious about having him on the team next year, you can always go back and negotiate a free-agent deal in the offseason.
The only question I see is whether they can get more value than two compensatory picks for Lilly right now.
It'll be tough to get the same value
as the 2 compensation picks because the Cubs seem to want the other team to pick up all of Ted’s remaining 2010 salary.
Depends on how motivated the other team is to win...
there’s only about $4 million left on Lilly’s deal. If the team is in the pennant race, they may be very willing to pay that kind of money for Lilly’s services.
And remember – two compensation picks isn’t necessarily all that much compared with AA and AAA prospects, who are much closer to major league ready.
It will be by...
…Saturday, because I doubt he clears waivers.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
why would the Cubs put him on the Waiver wire
if he is in such high demand why wouldnt you scoop him up for free-ish?
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
Hahaha!!
He wouldn’t make it pass Pittsburgh. Even a few crummy teams would be happy to pay six weeks salary to get access to a couple of high-round draft picks.
by Damen Jackson on Jul 28, 2010 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions
Really?
What teams have done this in recent years, other than the White Sox?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Honestly,
I can’t think of another instance where an in demand free-agent to-be wasn’t traded before the deadline, then tried to clear waivers.
by Damen Jackson on Jul 28, 2010 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Right...
… and my point was, small-market, low-budget teams aren’t going to claim expensive players just to get draft picks.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Thos draft picks
are worth more than Lilly’s salary for the last month or two, so I think you’re wrong. I think it’s possible that guys like that get claimed all the time and pulled back.
DEJESUS!!!
Agree...
…but I have a feeling Ricketts has instructed Hendry to deal what he can to acquire prospects if the deal is reasonable and doesn’t involve eating gobs of money.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I've read that he is available but not cheaply
Obviously the Astros would rather move Oswalt. I bet Myers won’t be traded.
This Comment
Would have relevance if there could be only one trade for a starting pitcher…both starters from last night’s game will be dealt by Saturday afternoon.
It's much more likely
actually. I don’t think people are appreciating some of the Myers dynamics, especially as compared to Lilly.
by Damen Jackson on Jul 28, 2010 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions
I think you're right about that...
They’re equal by any stretch, and I do agree Myers is probably under valued here and elsewhere. His deal will net the Astros considerably more for a few reasons; but at this point, he’s one of the most attractive starters available.
I agree...
…but that doesn’t mean Lilly will not be traded.
I think its an 80% chance Lilly is gone as well as possibly some lessor names; Theriot, Nady etc.. The rest of the guys; Lee, Fukudome and Zambrano are going to be very very difficult to move.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Well, it doesn't.
It just matches the name (sort of) and “pictures” could be memories.
Or something like that. The song just came into my head this morning and I decided to use it as a headline.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Well it was a tease.
I was hoping there would be pictures of Lilly after the jump.
"Fasten those seatbelts!"-Pat Hughes
Do you remember the lyrics, though?
You may be saying a lot more with that headline than you intended…
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
What are the chances we trade Lilly and resign him in the off season?
I really think Ted can pitch until he’s 40 and be very effective. I’m not sure if he’s looking for a big payday but I think it’s well worth it to state to him that we’re going to trade you now but you will have a home here next season. It sounds as though Ted would rather stay and if that’s true, bring him back.
This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).
What are the chances we trade Lilly and resign him in the off season?
Always possible, though you are risking him signing an extension with whatever team he’s traded to.
One thing I know about Ted: unlike a lot of current players, he actually has bought a house in Chicago — within walking distance of Wrigley Field. I know he likes it here and would love to finish his career here.
We’ll see.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Al, don't you think Ted can pitch effectively until he's 40?
As far as getting younger and Marshall into rotation…..get younger with position players and Marshall has found a niche as a set up guy. We don’t have anyone else for that role, I say he’ll stay in that role.
This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).
has there been any talk
of contract extension at any point in 2010 with Ted?
by cozmotaylor123 on Jul 28, 2010 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions
There's no rule against it...
but considering the team’s financial obligations and theoretical depth in the rotation (they could use Marshall and Gorzellany as the lefty starters), it may not be feasible.
And as Al said, the risk is that he finds his trade destination more enjoyable and re-signs there. Or that some other team really wows him in the offseason.
a better question
why would the Cubs want to re-sign him? The Cubs need to get younger and better, Lilly will do neither in 2011.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 28, 2010 8:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Correction.
The Cubs need to get better. Ted Lilly could be part of that.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Lilly could make us better...
the question is whether the resources necessary to re-sign Lilly could be better used to fill other positions, considering that Gorzellany and Marshall could fill the lefty starting roles at much lower cost (and probably a bit lower quality).
That’s not a decision any of us can answer right now until we know what is available (and at what price), and what our budget looks like (lots of questions about where Fukudome and Zambrano will be).
That's dead on.
And the Cubs already have three good starters on the roster for next year — Dempster, Wells, Gorzo. Given that, I think filling holes at second and first would be a higher priority.
Honestly,
I hope that the Cubs are not looking at filling holes for next year. I think that the window has closed for right now. They need to be looking to build for 2-4 years from now. Filling a hole for next year is the way that mediocre teams stay mediocre.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
I don't really disagree with that.
I think the Cubs could be good enough in 2011 to sneak into the WC picture. But there will be big voids at first and second, and acquiring someone to be a middle-order bat and play first on a three-year contract isn’t out of bounds in my mind.
If everything breaks perfectly
and everyone has career years, they might sneak into the WC. I’m not optimistic for next year though. 2012 is the next potential window IMHO. But only if the team plays its cards towards that. Otherwise, it might be 2013 or later.
I would be happy with a Darwin Barney, Fontenot platoon at 2b next year so that we could make a run in 2012. I REALLY don’t want a pricey free agent on the tail end of his productive career signed to play first or second next year.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
I'm fine with that plan at second.
And I’m not advocating a “pricey free agent on the tail end of his productive career.” But the Cubs will save more than $25 million with the departures of Lee and Lilly (not to mention Nady, Theriot, etc.). A good first baseman making $10 million to $13 million over three years makes a LOT of sense.
For the right guy
I’m all with you on that.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
How about Prince Fielder or Pujols
for $4 million a year?
A guy can dream, can’t he? :)
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Defensive issues acknowledged ...
I’m very interested to see what happens with Adam Dunn this winter
That makes two of us.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
I thought that when doing research
Marshall’s effectiveness the 2nd time through a lineup is greatly diminished?
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
I don't think we have a reasonable sample of that for Marshall...
The guy has only started 16 games in the last three years, and those starts were as a guy being shuffled in and out of the bullpen. So one would expect his in-game stamina to be poor compared to a regular starter. And I’m not sure it’s fair to assume that he’s the same pitcher at 27-28 as he was at 23-24 (when he was last a regular starter). In fact, I’d suggest he’s likely a much different pitcher now than he was way back then.
In thinking about this
you need to realize that re-signing Ted Lilly this offseason likely costs you your first round draft pick. If we can get something for him in the trade that we would give up a 1st rounder for, then good. But you better get something good in a trade knowing that you are giving up a first round pick AND a sandwich pick in next year’s draft to let Lilly go.
Everyone seems to forget about this.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
I think 40 is a stretch...
…for Lilly to be effective.
If he was a Jamie Moyer type, it would be a different story, but Lilly relies on his fastball much more to keep hitters honest. Once he loses 2-3 mph on his heater (and that is sooner rather than later), he wil become much more hittable. I think he has 2 maybe 3 productive years left in him.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Why couldn't Lilly become a Moyer type?
Not suggesting he could pitch till he’s 47, but he’s got a nice curveball and mixes his breaking stuff in well. 2-3 productive years? Sure. Why shouldn’t the Cubs have those years?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Moyer and Lilly's pitching styles are different
Not saying that Lilly couldn’t become a Moyer type, but he relies on his FB much more than Moyer ever did. The speed on the FB is what typically declines with age (unless you are juicing ala Clemens.) I think that Lilly certainly could become a Moyer type pitcher, but he would have to change his pitching style a good bit.
He certainly is capable of doing that, though. Looking at him right now…I wouldn’t think that he will pitch 5-7 more productive years, but he may.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
You'd really pay $20 million to $25 million
… for two years of a pitcher entering his late 30s AND given the Cubs’ payroll logjam and the team’s other needs?
If Lilly wants to stay, he needs to give the Cubs a HUGE hometown discount.
Here's what I think has happened in recent days.
I think Lilly and Hendry met to discuss the deadline and next year. Hendry told him that a trade is possible, and that Lilly will be gone with the right return (i.e. more than draft picks).
Hendry probably also told Lilly that if that happens, they’d like the chance to talk to Lilly about signing for 2011, while stressing the current state of the team’s budget/implying a hometown discount might be necessary.
That would make sense as an organization...
And it seems like the M.O. of Hendry to be very honest with his players and maintain a good relationship.
Actually,
Not to put too fine a point on it, but the Randy Wolf contract (3/30) is probably an accurate comp for Lilly. Maybe you don’t mind that if you can find a soft (and by that I mean little cash eaten) landing spot for Zambrano, but I suspect that the timing is not going to be on the Cubs side here.
by Damen Jackson on Jul 28, 2010 9:03 AM CDT up reply actions
And that's a big "NO" for me.
And I think for the Cubs.
That is my opinion as well
And offering him arbitration. Why? So I can pay him $15 million next season. Or take a couple of high picks that they may or may not want to commit dollars to signing next season. Pass.
I love Ted. Always have. But unless I have a gentleman’s agreement that he is willing to take a team-friendly contract at the end of the season, then he needs to go. And now, not at the end of the season, where the Cubs risk finding out he’s dropped to a Type B free agent, or worse, comes up lame. If he’s leaving, the Cubs would do well to make sure that they get back a projectable, near-ready player back, not messing around with compensatory picks.
by Damen Jackson on Jul 28, 2010 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree with all of this.
I’d also add that if Ted Lilly could be packaged with someone like Fukudome, I really wouldn’t care about the return. Lilly’s value as a trade chip could also be a way for the Cubs to move an unproductive contract.
I'd like to think loyalty matters in sports these days,
but after seeing what Boozer did to Cleveland a few years ago with a “gentleman’s agreement”, I really have a hard time believe stuff like this anymore in sports. Gotta protect your arse.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
If I'm Hendry ...
I trade Lilly now and try to get him back next season at the hometown discount.
unless Lilly says
keep me here all year and Ill give you discount in off season..trade me and its fair game….
by cozmotaylor123 on Jul 28, 2010 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't think loyalty can be assumed...
but I don’t think Boozer’s example should completely invalidate the idea that a player (or a team) could be loyal.
Agreed...
Lilly has been a fantastic pitcher for us. And he’s been a standup guy and seemingly a good clubhouse guy. But if he’s going to command $10 million per year to be re-signed, then that money may be better spent elsewhere.
If he’s willing to take a hometown discount, it might be worth considering. And of course if the Cubs can save some dough in any sort of trade of Fukudome and/or Zambrano, it makes re-signing him a bit more palatable.
On the other hand,
I think that I would do $10mm in a one year deal that he would get through arb.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
That would be a pay cut.
As DJ pointed out, Lilly could end up earning $15 million through arb!
That's possible.
I might still do that. I don’t think that Lilly will pass up the chance that he would have at the end of the season to get his likely last long term deal. He could probably get a 3-4 year deal on the open market. 1 year deals are almost always good for the club and you are going to have to pay a premium to have a player at a one year deal. I don’t think there is much risk at all to Lilly accepting arbitration. Even if he does, though. Lilly for one more year is still a great trading chip next year.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
He could, but...
… given the relationship between the team and the player, they would likely settle for less than that.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
He couldn't settle for $10 million though...
If the Cubs offer arbitration, it will be for at least $10.4 million (80% of his current $13 million).
Sure. My point was only with regard to the arbitration discussion
The Cubs’ arbitration offer has to be $10.4 million or more by rule. The team can agree to more in an extension, but on a one-year deal, it would have to be for at least $10.4 million if the Cubs offer arbitration.
If Lilly stays, you have to offer arbitration
The Cubs make this mistake time and time again. You have to offer some of these FAs arbitration. Lilly is not going to settle for a one year deal at his age. Wolf’s 3/30million deal is what Lilly is going to be likely looking for. He’s a type A FA right now and he’ll likely end the season as a type A.
Those two draft picks will be extremely useful, and what makes you say that the Cubs won’t commit the dollars to signing players they draft with those picks. The Cubs have a pretty solid track record of signing their draft picks.
I didn't say they won't
I’m simply not going to take it as a given.
by Damen Jackson on Jul 28, 2010 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions
Then what exactly is that positon based on?
The Cubs just went over slot (or are about to pay over slot) for Golden, their 2nd round pick in 2010. I’ll take it as a given, because there are few (if any) instances in which the Cubs did not sign their draft picks (at least in recent years)
I believe the Cubs have a history of not offering arbitration to players they don't intend to re-sign
See Kerry Wood for example.
They didn't offer Kerry arbitration because he would have accepted
Ditto for Harden (that why he should have been traded to Minny last July). That why you don’t offer arb to DLee (because he’ll likely accept). Lilly on the other hand is having a solid season and I’m sure he knows that he could sign a 3 year / 30-36 million deal this off-season, as long as he continues to pitch well and stay healthy.
Its a calculated gamble for sure, but the Cubs are likely to win this bet in that Lilly is probably going to get a multiyear/multimillion dollar contract this offseason.
+1
Wood would have gotten more than he was worth in arbitration, as the arbitrator would have ignored his injury risk. Whatever team Lilly finished 2010 with WILL offer arbitration, and if he accepts, he would get a reasonable 1 year deal. Magicblue is right, Lilly will get a multi year deal from somebody.
by holy mackeral on Jul 28, 2010 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Anything is possible...
…but it’s highly unlikely.
Moyer became the type of pitcher he is at a much younger age than Lilly and that will make it much tougher. Lilly will challenge hitters much more than Moyer ever did, and his fastball is “sneaky quick” which allows him to pitch inside a lot. Moyer also has one of the best change ups in all of baseball. Lilly’s change is pretty good, but when you are in your 30’s, it’s a lot to ask for someone to develop a great one.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Right... Lilly would have to drastically change his approach to be like Moyer
Moyer at one time had a fastball like Lilly’s. However, he learned to not rely on the fastball by his early-30s and figured out a system that worked for him.
There’s nothing absolutely preventing Lilly from changing his approach as he ages and thus remaining fairly effective. But obviously Moyer is a VERY rare case. Most guys don’t have the late-career success that Moyer has had.
I'm not saying...
…they wouldn’t benefit from those 2-3 years, but I have a feeling their priority will be to get younger and I’m not certain Ricketts is willing to pay a pitcher Lilly’s age the dough he would make on the open market.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Lilly at 37
will still be a good pitcher. I don’t see him being a Jamie Moyer and still pitching at 47.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
I don't either.
But you could definitely give him two or three years.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I think Gorz is a pretty similar pitcher
I don’t think they would need to.
"Get up or GET OUT THE WAY!"
~Stacy King
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 28, 2010 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Typical summary of the 2010 Cub's season
Great starting pitching but poor AB’s for our 3 and 4 hitters. I wonder how many AB’s our 3 and 4 hitters get themselves into 0-2 counts.
How long does it take to make a deal?
With all those scouts there, I assumed there was no deal yet. If it’s at all like buying a house, and it will be much more expensive for someone than buying most houses, it will take some time won’t it? More than three and a half days? I think Lilly pitches for the Cubs Monday.
One of Lee Elia's 15%
If someone wants to make a deal
it doesn’t really take that long. Can be done in a few hours with motivated GMs. This is, after all, what they do.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Thanks. Well, maybe the Cubs aren't so motivated to move Lilly just to move him before the deadline. I certainly hope not.
One of Lee Elia's 15%
by waiting4cubs on Jul 28, 2010 8:44 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree with you that Lilly will stay.
Not necessarily for the timing aspect, but for the fact that you have to have a trading partner who matches up with you AND offers you a decent return — better than you would get by keeping him and offering arbitration after the season.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
And because ...
Jim Hendry doesn’t negotiate in the media (as you often point out) we can’t honestly say what the return would be.
I think that's what I was trying to get at when I asked how long would it take. Finding the right trading partner etc.
All that stuff has to take some time and it doesn’t seem like three days is enough. And, again, I sure hope not!
One of Lee Elia's 15%
by waiting4cubs on Jul 28, 2010 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions
Well, yeah
but they are not starting this process today. It has likely been going on for 2-3 weeks already. Hendry is probably in talks with 3-4 clubs right now seeing if the “right” return can be had. There is no guarantee that it will, but the process is going on.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Correct...
….there are probably 4-5 clubs that have scouted his last 3-4 starts and now it just depends on what they are willing to give up.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Right... there's no way Hendry has just now started discussions...
I’d expect that he’s been in talks (about lots of players) for weeks. And with Lilly, I’m guessing that talks have been more substantive, probably with at least a few teams.
Uhh, the Royals game was fun?
We lost 11-2. That makes for 30-3 last two games, or 42-9 last three games. ROYALS BASEBALL: FEEL THE EXCITEMENT!
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
I was a HUGE Royals fan when I was a little kid
along with my Cubs and still have a soft spot in my heart for them. It really is a bummer that with MLB the way it is set up, the Royals have absolutely NO chance to compete.
Oh for the days of Frank White, Claudell Washington, Willie Wilson, Paul Splittorff, Vida Blue, Dan Quisenberry, Onix Conception, U.L Washington and George Brett.
There, that was fun. All from the memory of a 8 year old kid.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Arrgh
How could I forget Hal McRae?
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
It's pretty damn depressing.
The Royals have one of the top 3 farm systems in baseball, but their idiot GM is really ruining things. If I was the GM, I’d work my ass off to have a team that was at least somewhat competitive in 2012, the year KC hosts the all-star game.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Yup
The stars would have to align for the Royals to compete, but they will never align with the GM that they have running the shop right now…
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Cashner has amazing stuff... but he occasionally struggles with command.
And that’s what happened last night. Growing pains…
When he locates that fastball… it’s a very tough pitch to get around on.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
You guys are so cute.
Why don’t you all admit you haven’t got a clue what’s going to happen by the deadline?
"Fasten those seatbelts!"-Pat Hughes
NEVER
I KNOW ALL without have a credible source to speak of
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
Deadline? What deadline?
One of Lee Elia's 15%
by waiting4cubs on Jul 28, 2010 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions
(Sarcasm) What Do You Mean?
Just because I live over 500 miles from Chicago and don’t know anybody in Cubs management, you think I don’t know what’s going to happen by the deadline?
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
I hope Z goes to the south side
Here’s how it will go…
Z is traded to the White Sox; their fans reaction:
“Oh God noooooooooooooooo, not [bleepin’] Zambrano!” He’s gonna bring the curse with him! Ahhhhhhh!"
Z pitches lights out, and propels them into the postseason, or at least a few games away from clinching a spot; Sox fans reaction:
“Yeah! We knew it! It took Ozzie and the right team in town to get him straight! We’re gonna win it all, again! In your face Flub (or Scrub, or Chub, or whatever lame nickname is popular that day) fans!”
Z implodes, on the mound, and in the clubhouse, costing the Sox from advancing in the playoffs, or missing them all together; Sox fans reaction:
“Damn you Zambrano! It’s all your fault! You brought your north side curse with you! I knew we shouldn’t have trusted a former Scrub! Gaaaaaaah! (then incoherent blather about the curse, Cubs suck, blah blah blah, Wrigley is a stupid stadium, usual Cubs-related crap talk, etc etc etc)”
"What the hell, let's review it." - Dale Tallon
"They are!" - Pat Foley
"What a farce." - Dale Tallon
I'm probably one of the few here that likes Zambrano
I like the intensity he brings to the mound. When he focuses it, he’s one of the best in the game. He’s no ace of a staff and until this year, he was doing rather well. If he has to go somewhere else, I’ll wish him all the best and root for him as long as he’s not pitching for the Cardinals or against the Cubs.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).
Koyie Hill was the goat of this game
I don’t blame this one so much on Cashner, but he shares part of the blame. When Cashner has to be the first to field a bunt right in front of home plate, you know your team has completely failed at fundamentals. What good is a catcher if he can’t handle his position?
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).
Twins and Dodgers look to be frontrunners. Levine says Lilly almost certain to be dealt.
by LouPiniellaIsRetiring on Jul 28, 2010 9:57 AM CDT reply actions
Lilly deserves better than what he's been getting
I wish him the best.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).
Levine says Lilly almost certain to be dealt.
Where in Levine’s article does it say that? It says:
Lilly has told the Cubs he’d like to stay, however it appears by this weekend’s deadline for non-waiver trades that he’ll be wearing another uniform.
“it appears” does not equal “almost certain”. The article goes on to repeat the teams that are interested:
Sources tell ESPNChicago.com that the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Dodgers are two teams in hot pursuit of the Cubs starter. The Detroit Tigers and the New York Mets are also interested.
Yeah, well, I’m in hot pursuit of a winning lottery ticket. Doesn’t mean I’ll get one.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Ummm "it appears by this weekend’s deadline for non-waiver trades that he’ll be wearing another uniform".
by LouPiniellaIsRetiring on Jul 28, 2010 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions
My point was...
… I think people read too much into Levine’s article, which didn’t really have any new information.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Sure sounded ...
like your point was that deciding to trade Lilly would be as random at stopping at a gas station and buying a lottery ticket.
No, you misunderstood me.
I meant that “interest” or “hot pursuit” does not equate to “gone”.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I know the Twins have Wilson Ramos but I'm not sure who the Dodgers' big prospect is
by LouPiniellaIsRetiring on Jul 28, 2010 10:01 AM CDT reply actions
I wouldn't expect we'd get their top prospect...
My guess is that he’d land a couple of solid AA prospects. But that’s purely speculation.
by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't know
because Lilly’s a type A. You know some desperate team like the Mets (Omar trying to save his job) is going to give something pretty good
by LouPiniellaIsRetiring on Jul 28, 2010 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions
Your top prospect is worth more than two compensatory picks...
Teams aren’t going to deal their top prospect for two picks that will be several years from the big leagues (and may not turn out as good as the prospect you traded).
That’s why I’d expect it to be for lesser prospects. Then you’re putting more risk on that side of the trade, too.
by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions
Excellent column by David Haugh as to why the Cubs should NOT trade Lilly
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
That's terrible
The idea of signing a 35 year old who’s velocity is in decline is a bad idea. This team isn’t going to compete next year you can move Cashner to rotation.
by LouPiniellaIsRetiring on Jul 28, 2010 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions
Ted Lilly is someone who can win without being a "velocity" pitcher.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
He has never been a velocity pitcher...
…but what he can’t afford to do is lose any velocity and he will and probably already is to a small degree.
He pitches inside and when he loses a couple MPH on his heater, those pitches will start to be hit off the fat part of the bat.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
And if you look at xFIP he's been the worst Cubs pitcher this year
by LouPiniellaIsRetiring on Jul 28, 2010 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions
What the heck is xFIP?
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
It's an attempt at isolating pitching performance from "unlucky" HR rates...
If a pitcher has an abnormally lucky (or unlucky) year due to low (or high) HR/FB rate, their ERA will be lower (or higher) than it would otherwise be. So xFIP corrects for this “luck,” in an attempt to better predict future ERA.
Of course, as with any stat, you have to be cautious to see if the HR/FB rate is really due to luck or if there is some other underlying cause.
by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions
Right...
Lilly would have to completely change his approach if his fastball declines to the mid-80s. That’s not saying he can’t do that – just that I wouldn’t confidently say he can continue to be successful with a loss in velocity.
by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Liked the column a lot.
One of Lee Elia's 15%
by waiting4cubs on Jul 28, 2010 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Me too.
"Fasten those seatbelts!"-Pat Hughes
by katie casey on Jul 28, 2010 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions
In fairness Al, I'd say that's a pretty poor article
1. It ignores the idea that starting pitching might be the easiest place for us to retool (given our depth there – especially in LH starters), and that Lilly’s money might be more valuable spent elsewhere.
2. He states the possibility that Lilly could develop a bond during a pennant race and not want to re-sign with the Cubs. Well, you don’t think he’s developed a bond over the last 3.5 years?
I’m not saying that keeping Lilly is necessarily a bad idea. One can make an argument for keeping Lilly. I’m just saying is a pretty myopic article.
by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
I disagree with a key assertion:
“If Lilly walks, what will the Cubs’ top priority in free agency become? A veteran starter who can eat innings, keep his team in ballgames and exhibit the type of mental toughness that rubs off on teammates. "
There’s just so much wrong with that point.
The Cubs’ top priority will be replacing Derrek Lee — either when it comes to his place in the lineup or at first. And Haugh doesn’t acknowledge that the budget is tight and that spending $10 million to $15 million on an innings eater might be a terrible idea.
If the Cubs are going to spend $10 million to $15 million on a pitcher, I’d rather spend $20 million and sign Cliff Lee.
If the Cubs are going to spend $10 million to $15 million on a pitcher, I’d rather spend $20 million and sign Cliff Lee.
$10 million here, $10 million there, pretty soon you’re talking about real money.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
You're really reaching today.
Lilly will make more than $10 million next year. Even if he loses in arbitration, he’ll make more than $10 million. You can’t honestly believe otherwise.
And, of course we’re talking about real money! But would you rather spend around $40 million over three years for an innings eater/fourth starter or $100 million over five years on one of the best pitchers in the game?
The Cubs are in their current predicament, partly, because they overspent on second-tier players. I’d rather sack up and pay more top dollar for a Cy Young candidate than overpay for a fourth starter.
Sure, I'd love Cliff Lee.
But the Cubs are going to have to move OTHER contracts (Fukudome, Zambrano) before they can think about that.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
although
he is looking for a NTC and that is Jimbo’s specialty
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
by hansman1982 on Jul 28, 2010 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions
A no-trade-clause would be basically irrelevant in any long-term deal for Lilly
He’ll have 10/5 rights after next year, so he’d have trade veto power anyway.
by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions
ONLY if he stayed with the Cubs.
But hansman is right about Cliff Lee. Lee has been on four teams in the last year. He’ll certainly be looking for a full NTC.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Right...
I think the debate is more realistically between two things:
1. Is the money that would go to Lilly better spent on filling other holes (bullpen, 1B, etc) with Marshall (or someone else) as the rotation replacement, and/or
2. Is the trade return (and any decrease in chance of re-signing Lilly as a free agent if we do want to have him next year) worth more than the compensatory picks he’d net us.
by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions
Well, not necessarily.
Letting Lilly, Lee, Theriot and Nady walk saves the Cubs around $30 million in next year’s payroll. Some guys (Marshall, Marmol, Gorzo, Wells) will get raises, but the Cubs will have money to spend if the team wants to maintain its current payroll level (a big if).
I understand what you’re saying about Kosuke and Z. But there’s a lot of money coming off the books. I don’t think we’ll sign Cliff Lee, but I’d rather spend $20 million on him than $13 on Lilly.
I would guess...
…the Cubs payroll next year will not be above 130 mil
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Then Lilly HAS to go.
Because re-signing him would eat all payroll flexibility (before any Z/Kosuke salary dumps).
That might be tough to accomplish
They’re on the books for ~$105 million for only 9 players. And Marmol, Marshall, Gorzellany, and Soto are likely to make substantially more than the $4.5 million combined that they got last year.
I could see us as over $120 million without signing ANY free agents.
by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions
If the overall payroll drops, the discussion becomes different, but...
All Cubs contract info according to Cot’s, of course and are in millions.
ARam actually takes a $1.1 pay cut in 2011.
Dome gets a $0.5 raise.
Demp gets a $1 raise.
Thanks to Mariners’ contributions, Silva’s salary is actually a net $2 less for Cubs in 2011.
Byrd $2.5 raise.
Grabow $2.1 raise (vomit).
All other long term guys (Z, Sori, Shark) have same salary.
Net: only $3M in raises.
Raises TBD: Marmol, Fontenot?, Baker?, Marshall, Guzman?, Gorz, Soto, Wells
Don’t resign Lee: “save” $13.
Don’t resign Lilly: “save” $12.
Don’t resign Nady: “save” $3.3.
Don’t resign Theriot: “save” $2.6.
Net: “save” $30.9M.
So that is a net “savings” of $27.9M, pending the raises to the arb guys.
If you sign Cliff Lee (let’s call it $20M/year… leaves ~$8M left, pending arb raises), replace Theriot with Barney (MLB minimum), and Nady with Fuld (MLB minimum)… then 1B is the only spot that isn’t filled.
If you trade Dome and/or Z and get any salary relief (and/or get “Eric Karros” in return), there is the $ for your stop gag 1B (to go after a big boy in 2011, when ARam and surely Dome are off the books).
And BTW… Lou makes roughly $3M a year… if you promote Sandberg, you likely save on that cost (and no, that is not the correct reason for choosing a manager… but if Ryno is the choice, it should help financially).
So there surely is real money… but that money might work, especially with other tweaks possible.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
Those arbitration raises for Marmol, Marshall, Gorzellany, and Soto...
are likely to be substantial (like $5-10 million).
I think the key to any big offseason moves will be how much savings they can get for Zambrano and Fukudome, and whether they re-sign Lilly. The rest (not re-signing Nady, Theriot, and Lee) I’d take as almost a given.
by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions
That total could be the case...
but I was kind of accounting for that.
And FWIW, I believe Gorz and Soto are still a year away (after this upcoming contract) from their first real bump.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
My point was that the ~$8 million is going to be gone and then some
For the record, Gorzellany will be in his second arb year – Soto in his first. But Soto will get a big first-year raise based on his stats.
Guesstimates of ranges:
Marmol: $2-3 million more
Marshal: $1-2 million more
Gorzellany: $1-2 million more
Soto: $2-3 million more.
So those guys alone are a $6-9 million in raises. So in your “sign Lee” scenario, that leaves no money for a free agent 1B unless we can save money in a trade of Fukudome or Zambrano, or get a 1B in that trade.
In other words, my point is that it would be somewhat tricky to sign Lee AND get a 1B.
by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
IMO, a bit high on Soto.
Even with his stats, he just doesn’t get much leverage as first year arb.
Ryan Howard made 900K in ’07 coming off 58 HR 149 RBI.
But we’ll see.
And I recognize that my scenario makes things a bit tight. I guess I assume that in a deal for Dome and/or Z, the Cubs get some flexibility. If they deal both and only save $2M on each, that is a $4M 1B. Not a stud, but likely a serviceable player (Jorge Cantu?).
It is also possible that you might get Lee for ~$18M or be able to backload (gulp) the contract with a lower first year salary (something like 16, 20, 21, 22??) to allow the Cubs other cumbersome contracts to roll off the books.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
Howard was in a different case
He was a player with less than 2 years experience. Soto will have 3 years of experience.
By comparison, Marmol made $2.1 million this year as a middle reliever. Jimmy Rollins made $2.4 million in his first arb year. I’d think that Soto, playing a premium position and putting up great stats for that position, will get a raise of around $2 million.
So revise that down a bit from $6-9 to $5-8 million. The reality is the same.
If you’re assuming only a $3-5 million per year option at 1B (or whatever comes via trade, which would be similar in value), then I’m in agreement. That’s still a tricky proposition (requires finding the right trade).
by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions
OK
And agreed… making a lot of assumptions here.
If they don’t go after Lee and instead replace Lilly internally, it seems there’s enough $ to go after a decent FA 1B. Some of those options are in another thread… though I can’t same I’m enamored by any of them.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
Exactly...
Haugh completely overlooks that starting pitching is potentially a place where we have good depth. It would be 1B (where we’ve been killed offensively this year) where we’d most need to upgrade.
Lilly could be potentially replaced with Marshall for peanuts, which clears space for a relatively cheap bullpen arm and an option at 1B.
by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm not against the idea of Marshall moving into the rotation next year
even if we do somehow retain Lilly.
I spent 90% of my money on women and drink. The rest I wasted - George Best
The Keep Ted Lilly Rooters Club
thanks you for the fine job you are doing.
"Fasten those seatbelts!"-Pat Hughes
by katie casey on Jul 28, 2010 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions
Did you get me resume? I would like to apply.
One of Lee Elia's 15%
by waiting4cubs on Jul 28, 2010 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions
"My" resume. I'm Irish, but not that Irish.
One of Lee Elia's 15%
by waiting4cubs on Jul 28, 2010 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes-You're VP.
Sorry if I forgot to tell you.
"Fasten those seatbelts!"-Pat Hughes
by katie casey on Jul 28, 2010 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions
He makes good points about keeping Ted
but the last paragraph is pretty stupid:
But the Cubs only will become contenders again if they get the type of quality starting pitching, say, the White Sox have received this season.
Correction, David…the Cubs only will become contenders again if they get the type of quality starting pitching, say, the CUBS have received this season:
Cubs starters: 63 QS / 3.91 ERA
Sox starters: 61 QS / 4.05 ERA
Or perhaps he could correct it with…the Cubs only will become contenders again if they don’t, for example, hit .246 with RISP, unlike, say the White Sox who hit almost 30 points higher at .274…but then it would have zero relevance in a Ted Lilly-themed article. So, I give the article a “meh” rating. David’s trying, I’ll give him that.
"What the hell, let's review it." - Dale Tallon
"They are!" - Pat Foley
"What a farce." - Dale Tallon
I think
a lot of people need to separate rooting for the guy and thinking he’s in the best long-term interests of the club.
There was less hand-wringing when Maddux was sent to LA than now, and Maddux was a historically amazing pitcher, and brought just as much to the team in the dugout (by reports) as Lilly.
I don’t think the fact that the girls think he’s dreamy and the guys think he’s a bad-ass should over-rode whether it’s a good baseball decision to keep him around. In my mind, it’s CLEARLY the best baseball decision to trade him now if you can get solid value.
DEJESUS!!!
There was less hand-wringing when Maddux was sent to LA than now, and Maddux was a historically amazing pitcher, and brought just as much to the team in the dugout (by reports) as Lilly.
Because Maddux was 40 years old and I think everyone knew he was just about to retire — never thought he’d pitch two more years — and was likely to not be re-signed. Jim Hendry did a favor to a future Hall of Famer in that deal.
Those conditions do not exist with Ted Lilly.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Re: your first sentence, al
I’ll always remember him by the way he carried the cubs to the playoffs in 07 and 08 going a combined 32-17 and plowing through Yadier Molina in September, 08.
Sure hope he sticks around.
A-well-a Byrd, Byrd, Byrd, well the Byrd is the word.
My new blog/ebay auction site: http://mikessportscards.weebly.com/
by mikegncb34 on Jul 28, 2010 10:26 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
The crux of the keep Ted crowd today:
Sentiment.
by elgato on Jul 28, 2010 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nevertheless...
… having Ted Lilly on your team adds value. Jim Hendry has to decide whether that value exceeds the value of whatever prospects they can get.
I believe it does. I also believe that they could offer arb, if he turns it down, they get two draft picks.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Lilly's value - Lilly's cost needs to be compared to the value of those draft picks
If we sign him for 3/$30 and he’s worth about $30m over those 3 years, the picks would be the better choice for a team with no shortage of starting pitchers.
If we could find a new home for Z, that would help the case to keep Lilly.
And that value also needs to be compared with the possible return in a trade...
two compensatory picks are nice, but not necessarily as nice as a couple of solid AA prospects (or one very solid prospect and some A-ball prospects).
And yes, any decision to try to keep Lilly beyond this year may depend upon how much money can be saved via trades of Zambrano and/or Fukudome.
by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions
You can't say that the value of him being on the team exceeds the value of prospects ...
when you don’t know how much he’ll get in his next contract.
I know that the Cubs are somewhat covered by the arbitration option, but to say that Lilly’s value is unequivocally higher without knowing what he’ll be paid (even if you think he’ll grant a hometown discount) doesn’t make sense.
I confess that is true for me.
"Fasten those seatbelts!"-Pat Hughes
by katie casey on Jul 28, 2010 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions
Yep, time to part ways with sentiment and get down to business
If you can get a good deal for Ted, take it!! If not, keep him and offer Arb and get the picks.
"Any player who gets the opportunity to play at Wrigley should welcome it"
Reluctantly, I agree.
And I sure hope Cubs management isn’t worried about sentiment.
The thing is…the Cubs haven’t given me much this year to go on besides sentiment. If they get rid of my favorite player it will be like kicking me when I’m down. I reserve the right to be upset if they trade him.
"Fasten those seatbelts!"-Pat Hughes
by katie casey on Jul 28, 2010 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Yep, no one likes to see a good man traded
especially one that gave his all everyday. Hope it all works out and we end up better down the road.
"Any player who gets the opportunity to play at Wrigley should welcome it"
Lilly
has proved to be one of Hendry’s best signings. Aside from his playoff meltdown, he lived up to the contract, and now offfers the Cubs on opportunity to move him for prospects. Baseball is business, and too often the Cubs hold players beyond their value. This is a perfect opportunity to buck that trend. What to do w/ Big Z? By moving Lilly, the Cubs and Z can save some face, and move him back into the rotation. For what they owe him, they have to find out if he can still start. The remainder of this season is that opportunity. Love Lilly… time to let him go.
"Chicago Cubs fans are ninety percent scar tissue." - George F. Will
Theriot batting leadoff today??
WTF?? Just send Lou’s ass to Florida now!
"Any player who gets the opportunity to play at Wrigley should welcome it"
Lineup:
Theriot 2B, Castro SS, Colvin CF, Ramirez 3B, Nady LF, Fukudome RF, Baker 1B, Hill C, Wells P What a joke! Tomorrow’s an off day, they can rest then. Guess the towel has been thrown in!
"Any player who gets the opportunity to play at Wrigley should welcome it"
although colvin 3rd
solves alot of people’s gripes around here…
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
by hansman1982 on Jul 28, 2010 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Soto is having an issue with his toe
So it isn’t about “rest” for him.
Lots of people have been calling for Lee to take a day off.
So the only guy “resting” is Byrd… and giving a guy two days in a row is a fairly common practice.
Given what the Cubs have to work with, I guess that line-up “makes sense” (though I always hate Theriot in the top spot).
Shut up Joe Morgan.
Who cares what people are calling for? Are you trying to win or not?
It’s common practice for a team on top, not one trying for one last run. I guess it’s football time now, scalpers will be getting $5 a ticket in Sept. and Theriot will still be playing every day! Thank God that Lou gets to stay around the rest of the year…..
"Any player who gets the opportunity to play at Wrigley should welcome it"
The Theriot issue is a dead horse... there's just nothing to see here anymore.
So essentially you’re saying if DLee was in there, you’d have no other problem with the lineup (again, outside of Theriot)?
Soto is hurt… and there’s nothing wrong with Byrd getting A DAY off.
The “regular” line-up hasn’t really worked…
And of course they have thrown in the towel… they would need to play .750 baseball the rest of the way to even have a shot.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
I don't ever want to see Fukudome or Nady start again, ever.
They better be showcasing them today. Please let them get hits so some sucker team will take them off our hands!!!
"Any player who gets the opportunity to play at Wrigley should welcome it"
You can't "showcase" players who can't actually, you know, play.
A team interested in a “veteran RH PH” might go after Nady… but today’s efforts will play no role.
Some team might take a flyer on Dome, if we pay 2/3 of the freight.
I’m not “defending” Lou’s line-up… with the season functionally over, I’m just over the angst regarding his choices.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
Exactly...
Realistically speaking, we aren’t going to win this division or the Wild Card (our playoff chances are like 1 in 250 at this point). So while it’s not even close to the best lineup, I’m not terribly worried about it.
I’m just watching at this point to see how guys like Colvin, Castro, Baker, Cashner, etc do anyway. And if anything, getting a look at Colvin in the #3 spot isn’t the worst thing in the world (as I don’t think he’s our leadoff hitter next year).
by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions
So you're letting him off the hook ...
for an obvious strategic error?
What's the point of putting him "on the hook"?
He’s retiring and fairly clearly doesn’t really care any more.
I mean, seriously, what is the point of getting bent out of shape over Lou’s line-up “strategy” at this point?
We all know his choices make little strategic sense.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
I'm not letting him off the hook...
I completely agree that it’s not a good lineup. I’m just not all that concerned with the decision at this point. He’s not coming back and he’s not going to be fired. And we’re not winning the division anyway. So I don’t much care about how good Piniella’s strategy is (or isn’t) – as long as the young guys are getting experience.
by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions
All that's great stuff
But I’m interested in winning games until we’re mathematically eliminated. And to throw a brick at anyone who thinks it’s ok for Old Lou to be still managing this team.
"Any player who gets the opportunity to play at Wrigley should welcome it"
I wouldn't call this lineup decision "managing."
That is, unless something odd happened, like an injury to Lee or Soriano.
For the record...
I don’t think it is okay Lou is still managing. I’ve just come to accept that as reality.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
They appear to be resting Soriano...
as Nady is in LF.
by SouthernCub on Jul 28, 2010 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions
It's appalling ...
that Lou didn’t rest Lee last night and Soriano today (or vice versa) — especially if Soto can’t play. What the hell is he thinking?
Neither Lee nor Soriano got hits last night.
Maybe that’s why.
"Fasten those seatbelts!"-Pat Hughes
by katie casey on Jul 28, 2010 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions
They go hitless, so Lou opts for Nady and Baker?
Not to mention Fukudome?
I didn't say it made sense.
I was just trying to come up with a possibility for the “what the hell is he thinking?”
"Fasten those seatbelts!"-Pat Hughes
by katie casey on Jul 28, 2010 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
I am no longer appalled by Lou's choices.
I am resigned to them.
Though I will say this… it reminds me a bit of fantasy football strategy. That is, there is some logic to stacking all of your byes on one week, basically conceding that one week… while leaving your line-up at full strength the rest of the time.
This as opposed to splitting all your byes and rarely/never playing at “full strength”.
Again… not defending the choices, but this (giving lots of regulars the day off the same day) was a fairly common managerial practice in the “old days”.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
Guess the towel has been thrown in!
You don’t expect to win against the mighty Astros, do you?
"Fasten those seatbelts!"-Pat Hughes
by katie casey on Jul 28, 2010 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions
This lineup defies belief.
Other than 2-4, this is just ridiculous. If Soriano and Lee need rests, why not rest one last night and one today?
Are you bleeping kidding me????
I could construct a better lineup asleep.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Mount Washington conquered July 5, 2010
State high point count: 3/50
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Jul 28, 2010 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Isn't this the trade lineup?
Surprised that Fontenot isn’t playing SS.
It is the showcase showdown of MLB. We are putting all the trade pieces out there for the world to see.
"It was a perfect situation for the Brewers," Hill said. "They had a guy up there at the plate [in Counsell] who takes a lot of pride in what he does and he practices those situations, so when it does come up, he gets the bunt down to the right side of the field. They have the perfect guy on first base [in Gomez], who is one of the fastest guys in the league, and they had one of the worst fundamental teams on the field, so it was a perfect situation for them."
by louslovechild on Jul 28, 2010 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions
A bit flattered you would pull out my comment, Al
Here’s some retort from your reply.
a) “fix” Z — the Sox are probably the one team that can do this, because of Ozzie Guillen’s close personal relationship with Z. He’s the one manager in baseball who actually has the chance of understanding why Z goes off the deep end — likely, because Ozzie does that himself from time to time.
Z isn’t the same pitcher we always wanted him to be. I’m not sure having a manager who “understands him” fixes Z’s mechanical issues or the drop in his stuff.
b) “controlling” Z — see the point above.
Entirely possible… but I don’t see any reason to think it is MORE likely that Z and Ozzie will get along than it is to believe that their combustible personalities will clash. They are countrymen… fine. They are also both hotheads. You think they’ll be humming the Venezuelan national anthem the first time Z goes 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 BB, 3K and beats up a Gatorade cooler?
c) the plummeting K rate — this isn’t really true; Z has 53 strikeouts in 55.2 major league innings this year. But Z is really most effective when he has his heavy sinker working, rather than trying to be a strikeout pitcher. Also, “little league” was a little over the top, but the Cell is definitely a launching pad, one reason Ted Lilly wouldn’t do well there. Z would have to become more of a sinkerballer to succeed there.
“Got me” a bit here as I didn’t check my stats… but I don’t think you’ll find anyone who thinks Z’s stuff hasn’t fallen off, which was really my point. IF that sinker is working, Z can be effective playing literally on a little league field. But that stuff just isn’t there very often. And Lilly would also be a poor fit on the south side.
d) “immediate” success — Kenny Williams took on Alex Rios’ contract via waivers last year. People laughed. Kenny got the last laugh. Obviously, he can’t wait a year this time — but then, the Sox aren’t where they were last year. This would be a roll-the-dice type of move, no doubt, because the Sox need pitching help. It could pay off big-time.
But the Sox were essentially out of the race when they picked up Rios last year… that move was definitely about the future. My assumption is KW is trying to make a move(s?) to help RIGHT NOW… and I don’t see how Z really does that. In that case, KW could evaluate this in the offseason, when they can evaluate PV’s progress.
e) PV never being fully healthy — that would be the risk for both teams, right? The Sox can wait for spring training and hope he’s healthy, but if they don’t make the deal, they lose out on a postseason spot AND Peavy isn’t healthy, they lose on all three counts. Z might help them to the postseason, which would allow the Sox to tweak the Cubs and Cubs fans again. Normally, I wouldn’t be for that but the relationship between Z and the Cubs seems irreparably broken, especially now that the Cubs have gone public with their desire to trade him.
Again, I’m not sure how Z helps them get to the post season. He’s three weeks away from being ready to start in the MLB… and with questionable stuff.
And the first part of this quote is really speculative. It seems to suggest that they either make a deal now or roll the dice on PV. What about the option of simply acquiring another P in the offseason?
There sure is risk in PV… but that is, in a weird way, the “upside” of him.
Heck… I’d go as far as to say the best case scenario for the Cubs would be to trade Z straight up for PV… and have PV never pitch again so the insurance covers the salary.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
HA!
You think they’ll be humming the Venezuelan national anthem the first time Z goes 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 BB, 3K and beats up a Gatorade cooler?
I enjoyed this. Bravo.
"What the hell, let's review it." - Dale Tallon
"They are!" - Pat Foley
"What a farce." - Dale Tallon
I don’t see any reason to think it is MORE likely that Z and Ozzie will get along than it is to believe that their combustible personalities will clash. They are countrymen… fine. They are also both hotheads.
They are more than countrymen. They are close personal friends. I trust you can see the difference.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Certainly.
But does that friendship erase the fact that Z acts like a child? Or that Ozzie will call players out in the media?
If anything, I would think being friends might make that more difficult.
When Lou or Hendry “calls out” Z, Carlos can blow it off… “they are just my bosses” or “they just don’t understand me” card. Well, that goes out the window when the manager is your “close personal friend”.
Maybe it would work… maybe even in spades. And, again, I am ALL FOR Hendry dumping Z on Kenny and Ozzie.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
Ted Lilly—pitcher of no record in a 6—2 defeat
If I was Lou Piniella I would never have pulled Lilly. No offense to support Lilly, and a rookie who gave the game away in the seventh.
by Marvin Ferguson on Jul 28, 2010 6:51 PM CDT reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Cubs By The Numbers
Cubs By The Numbers is a history of the ballclub by uniform number, but the biographies help trace the history of our beloved team in a new way. For everyone who's a Cubs fan, anyone who ever wore the uniform is like family. Cubs By The Numbers reintroduces readers to some of their long-lost ancestors, even ones they think they already know.
Click here to order your copy, available now!