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Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse says he has heard the deal is Lilly for Happ.

over 1 year ago Potato-head-a_tiny kaseyi 72 comments 0 recs  | 

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sigh

i should’ve prepared myself that something that makes absolutely no sense could be entertained by jim hendry

ja happ is about the worst realistic return i could see hendry netting us

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 28, 2010 3:56 PM CDT reply actions  

That doesn't make sense for the Phillies, either.

CBP is a home run heaven. Ted has a lifetime 7.16 ERA there — granted, small sample size, 16.2 innings, but 4 HR allowed in those innings.

Why is Happ a “worst” return?

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

reasons to dislike Happ

1) its an asset we have abundance of “mid-rotation starters” – Gorzelanny, Randy Wells, Carlos Silva. and provides an excess spot to not allow room for the potential movement of Cashner back to the rotation or promotions of guys like Jay Jackson, Thomas Diamond, Chris Carpenter, etc

2) Happ’s about to get more expensive, he has 1 year left of cost control before he gets into his arb years

3) its taking the one viable trade asset we have and getting nothing of high end ceiling or need in return. That’s a bad trade

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 28, 2010 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Points taken.

I don’t think this is a realistic deal, either.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't know quite what to think of this

I don’t hate the idea, but it’s not at all exciting.

He may be nearing his arbitration years, but his cost is not an issue. He’ll still be underpaid relative to his performance for several seasons.

He’s pretty similar to Gorz, so I don’t get what we’d be doing with him. He’s not a front of the rotation starter—he’s more of a 3 or 4, but we have plenty of those. He’s too good to stuff away in the minors, but not good enough to make the big league club much better.

The best part of this is that we have a juicy rumor to digest.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jul 28, 2010 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

not expensive per se

to us in terms of overall budget, but expensive for redundancy. How much money and roster spots do we want to have tied up in mid-rotation/back-rotation guys?

its tough to develop a contender when you dont have any roster spots open to develop young guys because you’re bludgeoning the roster with low-ceiling veterans

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 28, 2010 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

He's

not expensive, period, for a starter.

He is redundant, but that’s a different issue. I agree that he’s similar to Wells, Gorz, etc in ceiling. If Lilly is leaving, however, and Z is leaving or going to the pen permanently, then getting an effective starter out of an exiting Lilly isn’t the worst thing that could happen.

FWIW, Philly fans HATE this deal. They don’t want Happ leaving for anything short of an Ace-type pitcher.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jul 28, 2010 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

so you think cost

is only measurable in terms of dollars and not opportunity?

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 28, 2010 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sigh

you are shifting the argument.

“Happ’s about to get more expensive, he has 1 year left of cost control before he gets into his arb years”

You weren’t talking about opportunity cost there, you were clearly talking about dollars. All I’m saying is his dollars are insignificant. He has 1.5 years of cost control, plus his arbitration years, most of which generally pay well below open market value.

The monetary obligations have nothing to do with whether or not we should acquire him. He isn’t and won’t be owed significant dollars for several years.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jul 28, 2010 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

not shifting the argument at all

cost can be measured in a combination of dollars and opportunity. When the dollars are increasing in a significant fashion (going from cost controlled to arb is a matter of multiples) and being allocated to a repetitive resource it IS expensive to a club both in terms of dollars and opportunity

but you’d much rather try to lean on one sentence in an argument and try to prove yourself right than actually debate the topic in its entirety

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 28, 2010 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

As i said

above, I’m not entirely for or against the move. Mostly I don’t understand it. I agreed with most of the points you made. i agree he would be redundant. But 1/3 of your argument is that he’s about to get expensive, and that’s factually incorrect.

You had 3 points. One was that he was redundant (I agree—this is where you alluded to the opportunity cost). One was that he was about to get expensive (this is the part I disagree with). The last was that they were using a valuable trade asset and not getting something of greater need or high ceiling in return (I agree).

"Happ’s about to get more expensive, he has 1 year left of cost control before he gets into his arb years"

All I was pointing out is that your second point isn’t right. His contract status does not make this a bad deal. That’s the best part of the deal.

I didn’t make it a big deal. I didn’t “lean on” one sentence. I just pointed out part of your argument was wrong. If you can’t accept that, then maybe you should post opinions.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jul 28, 2010 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

and i'm pointing out

that your singular interpretation is wrong

perhaps you can’t accept that either

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 28, 2010 8:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

It's plainly obvious

what you were saying. You are backtracking now, and I’m not sure why. Maybe it’s narcissism. But whatever, I’m not talking about it any further, because I care about you being wrong much less than you do.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jul 28, 2010 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

isn't the old adage

you can never have enough pitching. i get where you are going with the opportunity cost thing but i’m not sure how acquiring a youngerish, cost-controlled pitcher that has had major league success is going to hurt or is inherently a bad idea. given the number of large contracts the cubs would like to unload (zambrano, fukudome, grabow) having young major-league ready pitching to package with those contracts could be helpful in moving some money.

i understand the concerns about happ and the role that luck may have played in his 2009 season, still if getting happ allows the cubs to save the remaining money owed to lilly and the cubs can package one of gorz/happ/marshall to move a big contract i’d think that, overall, it would be a good deal for the cubs.

by circuitclout on Jul 28, 2010 9:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't like this...

He is 27 about to be 28. Not much potenial to be a front end starter, i’d rather recieve some prospects.

by Ryno G on Jul 28, 2010 4:15 PM CDT reply actions  

So he's...

going into his prime?

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jul 28, 2010 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

Jayson Stark debunks this rumor on Twitter:

As for those Lilly-for-J.A. Happ rumors, as I said on our Trade Deadline Live http://es.pn/bXrIsR #Phillies won’t deal Happ for rent-an-arm

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 4:31 PM CDT reply actions  

He didn't

“debunk” it. His sources gave him different information than Price’s sources gave him.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jul 28, 2010 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

Phillies won’t deal Happ for rent-an-arm

How is this not debunking?

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

Is he the Phillies GM?

Debunking to me is proving something isn’t true. Unless the Phillies GM directly tells him what he will or won’t do, then he is using sources, just like Price. Some sources are better than others. We don’t know which guys sources are right, since they are telling us directly contraditory things.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jul 28, 2010 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

It's not really Semantics

Debunking something is quite different from having an opposing opinion

by HuskerCorner on Jul 28, 2010 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

are you trying to be ironic?

by arguing about the definition of the word ‘semantics’? if so, that’s really funny. but i’m guessing you’re not quite there.

semantics: “the meaning or interpretation of a word”
or
semantics: exactly what tomas did.

by neifi on Jul 28, 2010 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

When someone says

another is arguing semantics, the connotation is that one is splitting hairs over a trivial difference in meaning.

Al said the Stark “debunked” the rumor, when Stark did nothing of the sort. Al has been running around quashing anyone proposing rumors, and applauding anyone who suggests we keep players or linking rumors that we might not do anything. I was merely pointing out the Al was overstating what Stark’s report meant.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jul 28, 2010 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

•The market for Lilly has picked up, according to Stark (on Twitter). The Tigers are involved, and so are the Dodgers, Twins and Phillies.

by Ryno G on Jul 28, 2010 4:43 PM CDT reply actions  

Well than release Nady & Howry

Not like they can trade them. If anyone but Lou were managing I would suggest dumping Baker too even though it is not really his fault Lou forgot he exists. The one position player who deserves a look now is Barney but bringing him up to sit on the bench is probably a bad idea.

"Lou Piniella's been a great manager for a long time and I stand by him completely"
Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Jul 28, 2010 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well than release Nady & Howry

Not like they can trade them. If anyone but Lou were managing I would suggest dumping Baker too even though it is not really his fault Lou forgot he exists. The one position player who deserves a look now is Barney but bringing him up to sit on the bench is probably a bad idea.

"Lou Piniella's been a great manager for a long time and I stand by him completely"
Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Jul 28, 2010 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

If Nady can't be traded...

… before the deadline, he’ll be waived. Someone might claim him, so they don’t have to give up a prospect to get him, and take the rest of the contract.

Howry should be thanked and given his gold watch.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

since Hendry and Lou like Howry, they will pretend he is injured

and let him spend August on the DL, bring him back in September, and then give him his gold watch. just a prediction, and yes, this is pretty irrelevant, as this guy clearly is finished.

by holy mackeral on Jul 28, 2010 8:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

He could spend the rest of the year on the DL

… and not even come back at all.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 8:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

what would be so bad in that

our biggest trading piece can be offered arbitration this offseason and get a couple good draft picks…not alot of the other guys are going to be deadline dealable…as I have said before – Lilly stays

I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119

by hansman1982 on Jul 29, 2010 6:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

For those with knowledge of the minors, who on the teams mentions would be

realistic/interesting prospects in return?

"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin

by davidalanu on Jul 28, 2010 5:02 PM CDT reply actions  

I posted

it once, but Al got really agitated so I’m not going to do it again. Someone with a better knowledge of searching the site could probably find it.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jul 28, 2010 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Agitated?

Hardly. If you want to post possible prospects, go ahead, but remember it’s not likely any of them are coming here.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

Why do you run a blog?

Discussing what it possible for the future of the Cubs is half of why many people like coming here. If it doesn’t interest you, fine, but there is no reason to be such a jerk about it when it comes up. And yes, you are a jerk about it often.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jul 28, 2010 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Knock off the namecalling.

If you don’t like what I do here, you are free to leave.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

I didn't call you a name

I described your behavior.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jul 28, 2010 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

Same thing.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 8:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

Let me go at it another way

Guys that likely are unavailable in a Lilly deal (just guesses on my part):

Tigers: Casey Crosby, Jacob Turner.

Andy Oliver has graduated and Rick Porcello isn’t a prospect, but neither guy is likely available. This doesn’t mean everything else is possible, as they may want to hold on a guy like Daniel Fields, but it’s hard for me to imagine that there’s anyone else in the system that can’t’ at least be discussed. I’ve indicated my preferences before – landing a young arm like Brayan Villareal would be a nice get, IMO, as part of a package. Sizemore/Villareal wouldn’t be bad, but not sure they’d do it. I’d be fine with pen type arms like Weinhardt, although the deal wouldn’t excite me.

Dodgers: Dee Gordon, Ethan Martin, Chris Withrow, Aaron Miller, Garrett Gould, Allen Webster.

The Dodgers are a unique case due to their financial situation. In giving up Elisaul Pimentel and Lucas May for Scott Podsednik, though, they seem to be giving a sign that they’ll try, and you’d like to squeeze them if possible. Their system is a bit weaker from it’s peak several years ago, but it’s still go some good pieces, particularly on the arm side. That said, it’s hard for me to imagine them giving up potentially elite arms like Martin and Withrow. Aaron Miller is too much value, and hard for me to see them deal youngters Gould and Webster. Of the guys above, Webster is the one I’m least sure on. Gordon is off-limits. There’s still enough here, though. Taking a gamble on Josh Lindblom as a power pen arm might be interesting. Seeing if Scott Elbert is available is a thought. A gamble on a guy like Pedro Baez – perhaps. There’s some raw low level arms to ponder.

Twins: Aaron Hicks, Ben Revere, Wilson Ramos, Kyle Gibson, Miguel Sano.

This is a system that you could put together a lot of combinations to come up with a deal … as they have a lot of 2nd tier arms. There’s guys like Glen Perkins or David Bromberg, both mildly interesting. There’s some raw young arms like Tootle, who is on the DL. Strike throwing young Aussie Liam Hendriks does intrigue me a bit, I’d ask on Revere, but I doubt it.

Leaving Philly out as they are closing in on an Oswalt deal.

by toonsterwu on Jul 29, 2010 2:48 AM CDT up reply actions  

I would further say

that if there is any truth to the Happ rumor, it could be that Hendry os focused on getting someone on an MLB roster already. We may be speculating about prospects, but he may be looking at someone’s young back of the rotation guy.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jul 29, 2010 6:43 AM CDT up reply actions  

it may

or may not be true that the deal is being discussed. If it is, they would approach Ted and say, “Hey Ted, would you be willing to go to Philly for the last 2 months of the season?” He could say yes or no. Maybe there are places he doesn’t want to play for extended periods, but is willing to go for a month or two.

Maybe for some baseball players the chance at a ring or playing meaningful baseball is more important than the city they play in for a couple months at the end of the contract. Maybe some baseball players appreciate the tens of millions of dollars an organization paid them, and is willing to move around a bit for a couple months to help the team that paid them all those dollars.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jul 28, 2010 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

Keeping Lilly and offering him arbitration

makes the most sense to me. He has been an effective starter for 4 yrs. If he leaves, then draft picks would probably be better compensation than what he could yiel din an rent an arm trade.

by perseman on Jul 28, 2010 6:44 PM CDT reply actions  

Offering Lilly arbitration would be a terrible idea

He’ll probably accept it and the cubs will be screwed.

by LouPiniellaIsRetiring on Jul 28, 2010 6:53 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

How are they "screwed"

by having Lilly accept a one-year deal at something similar to his current salary?

Ted may or may not be in the future plans… but if he is a Cub for another year, I don’t see how that “screws” the Cubs.

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Jul 28, 2010 7:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

Cubs wouldnt be screwed in arbitration, but should listen to offers for Lilly

Maybe Happ is in the same category as Gorz, Wells, and Silva, but you cant count on all of them being good next year. One of them will slip or get injured, so having a surplus is necessary. I would take Happ (he is worth more than a draft pick) , and spend the Lilly money on somebody else this winter.

by holy mackeral on Jul 28, 2010 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

But if you don’t get the right kind of return for Lilly now, I see very little downside to offering him arbitration.

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Jul 28, 2010 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

Thirded.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

And that's less than he's making now.

I don’t have a problem with that.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Jul 28, 2010 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

Lilly for 8 mill in 2011....

SOunds good for a one year deal. He is a gamer, apparently a good clubhouse presence and competes. The Cubs payroll problems are not because of Lilly.

by perseman on Jul 28, 2010 8:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

It will probably be more than 8 million.

And what really is the point of having a 35 year old pitcher on a 8mil plus contract. There are so many different options the Cubs have that I would rather see: Cashner, Jay Jackson, diamond

by LouPiniellaIsRetiring on Jul 28, 2010 8:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

Given his performance, I doubt Ted would get a pay cut from an arbitrator.

Certainly he has the option to agree to a lower salary… but I don’t see that as terribly likely for a very solid LH SP, even in this market.

If you get “stuck” with Ted, the Cubs are still ok salary-wise with Lee, Theriot (likely), and Nady coming off the books.

Even with the raises due to other players, the Cubs have the room for Ted’s salary. The question is whether the Cubs’ brass wants to “go another direction” with that $.

And if you aren’t going to offer him arbitration… then they should literally trade him for whatever they can get. That makes more sense than letting him just walk when he is still seen as a valuable commodity.

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Jul 28, 2010 8:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Cubs better not trade lily for nuttin

Lily has been a very good pitcher for the last 4 yrs..U better get some good prospects for him or a good second baseman thats sittin on some bench with no room to play..I hate seeing these dumb rumors for 2 has been minor leaugurs or we cant get a t op minor leaguor if we cant get him we keep him.

by tazz34 on Jul 28, 2010 9:56 PM CDT reply actions  

you tell the powers that be

that they better get a Strasburg type for 2 months of Lilly…

I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119

by hansman1982 on Jul 29, 2010 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

Happ + Prospects to HOU for Oswalt.

Dodged a bullet there

------ TheRiot Squad ------

by RightFieldSucks on Jul 29, 2010 4:04 PM CDT reply actions  

Yep the "rumor" was definitely wrong now.

Houston was lucky enough to get the soft tosser and pay 11 million to Philly for Oswalt to pitch there. Can’t imagine how this made sense to Houston….I guess they wanted him off the team so much they were willing to do so no matter what.

Starlin Castro singles on a pop up to catcher Jason LaRue.
Ryan Theriot scores. Two out -Gameday 7/23/10

by Sandberg's evil twin on Jul 30, 2010 12:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

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