Derrek Lee's Down Year

An article giving the comparative statistical take on Derrek Lee's season versus the DLee of old...

This season vs. 2009 (in parentheses)
BB%: 11.2% (12.4%)
K%: 23.8% (20.5%)
GB%: 39.0% (35.1%)
FB%: 38.3% (45.7%)
IIFB%: 1.7% (4.6%)
LD%: 22.7% (19.2%)
HR/FB%: 10.0% (17.9%)

Interesting that the author suggests that his down year could be due to bad luck, seeing that his BABIP is down almost 40 points from his career average.

almost 2 years ago IowaCubs- 4 comments 0 recs |

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The problem is that nowadays a lot gets explained by BABIP, probably a lot more than should be. Because current measures are mostly unable to explain BABIP, it assumed to be composed of random variance. I am not sure I’m ready to believe that yet, at least to the degree that is currently suggested.

For example:

Here are Lee’s OPS number for each month of the season (at bats in parenthesis):

April: .679 (88)
May: .733 (105)
June: .706 (93)
July: .757 (96)
August: .635 (25)

What are the probabilities that you take 4 random samples of 90+ at bats from a population of at bats and the player has had horrible luck in each of them? And August is continuing the same trend, so perhaps it will be at least 5 samples.

I don’t know. Maybe I’m completely wrong.

by Luis on Aug 10, 2010 2:39 PM CDT reply actions