Lincecum Is Human! Cubs Chase Giants Ace, Hang On For 8-6 Win
by Al Yellon on Aug 11, 2010 8:30 AM CDT
in Chicago Cubs Recaps
Email
PrintSAN FRANCISCO -- Thank heavens for Mike Fontenot, or this might be a recap of another jaw-dropping loss.
The forgotten Fontenot, who has started only five games since July 1, smacked a pinch-hit, two-run double in the eighth inning, which gave the Cubs an 8-4 lead. Inexplicably, the Giants had a fairly long meeting on the mound as Fontenot stood ready to pinch-hit; a lefthander was warming up in their left-field bullpen. Had Bruce Bochy brought him in, Alan Trammell would certainly have made the reflexive move and sent Xavier Nady up to bat for Fontenot. That likely would have been a better matchup for the Giants.
The Cubs nearly needed every one of those runs in an 8-6 win over the Giants on a San Francisco night much more suited to NFL football than baseball. Hot chocolate vendors came by in the [Phone Holding Company] Park seats seemingly every two or three minutes and they did a brisk business. Maybe Carlos Marmol should have ordered one, because he was ice-cold (rather than his usual lights out) when brought into the game in a non-save situation.
As is sometimes the case with Marmol, he stubbornly stuck with his slider even when it was clear it wasn't working. Unfortunately, his fastball didn't work very well either; four of the first five Giants got hits in the ninth inning and when Pablo Sandoval scooted a ball up the middle, scoring Buster Posey, it brought the winning run to the plate, with a very small remnant of the 35,389 remaining in the house.
Fortunately, Marmol then bore down and struck out Juan Uribe and got Travis Ishikawa to ground to Micah Hoffpauir to end the game. That last event wasn't a no-brainer; either. I've kind of started at the end of the story, so follow me past the jump for the beginning.
Tim Lincecum has been a good pitcher this year, but not the Cy Young Award winner he's been the last two seasons. His WHIP is way up and so is his ERA; he's been hittable and the Cubs had fun with him in the very first inning. Kosuke Fukudome capped a four-run first inning by smacking the first pitch he saw for a two-run homer that took one bounce into McCovey Cove. This tweet from Carrie is interesting:
#Cubs Kosuke Fukudome is batting .415 (17-for-41) when putting 1st pitch in play, including 1st inning 2-run HR Tue nite
So why doesn't he do this more often? I realize Fukudome is generally a patient hitter and his ability to draw walks is useful, but maybe if he changed his approach somewhat, this might help him raise his batting average, too.
Anyway, the Cubs did their best to try to give the lead back with shoddy defense; Blake DeWitt booted what looked like a sure inning-ending DP ball in the first inning, leading to an unearned run. The Cubs eventually did get out of that inning with an actual double play, but Hoffpauir committed the Cubs' second error in the very next inning. That didn't lead to any more scoring, but the Giants had already put a run across in the second.
Thankfully, Ryan Dempster settled down after that, retiring 12 of 15 hitters from the third to the sixth innings, allowing only three harmless singles, as a mist began to fall over the ballpark. It's bizarre to think that you could be a player for the Giants, play in San Francisco all summer and it never, ever gets warm -- the players here must really look forward to day games, where you can at least stay warm in the sun. That is, when it's not foggy.
Anyway, the Cubs tacked on a pair of runs during that time and were leading 6-2 when Dempster left the game with two out in the seventh. Andrew Cashner gave up a long fly ball that should have ended that inning; Tyler Colvin chased it down... and then dropped it. The local official scorer charitably gave Buster Posey a double and two RBI; a major league center fielder has to make that play.
I note that in the game preview last night, the question was raised regarding why Koyie Hill would be starting with Welington Castillo called up. For one thing, Hoffpauir and Castillo missed a connecting flight in Minneapolis and arrived late; second, Castillo has never caught Dempster and you want him to just dive in there with no preparation? Castillo is expected to start tonight, but it wouldn't have been fair to him or the team to simply slot him in as a starter last night. Hill, for his part, had only his second two-hit game of the season and also scored twice.
307 comments
|
2 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Not surprised they missed a connecting flgiht here.
I was setting a shoot in a 40th floor space in DT Minneapolis and watched the early storm (happened late morning) roll in – a very violent thunderstorm with an incredible deluge of rain.
Must have done quite a job screwing up schedules at MSP.
Glad to see a win last night.
My GF drove back to Fargo from the Cities through that one
Not. Happy.
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
Hearing the last few innings while getting ready for, and driving to, work was a wonderful way to start the day!
The AtBat app is wonderful…
If the Cubs still have a chance, no matter how small, it’s still Go Cubs, damn the math and pass the KoolAid.
I hope I'm not being too contrarian...
… and I know I’ve spoken out on the “against” side a lot lately, but RE: the Fukudome comment, I’m not sure it’s a matter of changing his form. That stat may be a function of how many hittable pitches he sees as the first pitch, and not necessarily driven by his approach at the plate.
Here's what Fukudome said about it.
quoted in Carrie Muskat’s summary from earlier this morning:
“I may be just lucky, but the first pitch is something the batter has the advantage with because the count is not deep and I can aggressively swing the bat,” Fukudome said.
One of Lee Elia's 15%
by waiting4cubs on Aug 11, 2010 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Also, it's "when putting the first pitch in play".
Obviously, he’s occasionally swinging and missing, fouling stuff off, and so on. Everyone’s batting average on balls in play seems pretty good when examined in a vacuum, regardless of the pitch number. .417 is better than average for BABIP, but it’s not absurd – especially given the really small sample size.
I wonder what the league BABIP is for first-pitches.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
You know who else had "good" numbers putting the first ball in play?
Ryan Theriot. BABIP as D98 noted does have a lot to do with it, as your BABIP will always be better than your BA. Especially for a hitter who struggles to make contact like Dome does. Just because you have good numbers on the first pitch doesn’t mean you should always be swinging.
by JSB on Aug 11, 2010 9:57 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Who is this Ryan Theriot you speak of?
Steve Swisher - 1976 NL All-Star Catcher
by Dan Serafini on Aug 11, 2010 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions
I think he is some scrappy kid for the dodgers.
I heard he is an amazing baserunner.
Also, being patient helps
If the pitcher knows you are patient he is more likely to give you a first pitch strike. So if Fukudome chooses his spots correctly then he can find a nice get-me-over fastball to drive into right field.
If he starts hacking more then the pitchers will take notice and this approach would probably be useless in about a week.
As mentioned, this stat also says nothing about his helicopter swing and misses.
Defense
This teams defense is about as putrid as I’ve seen from a Cubs team. And that’s saying something, since I’ve been watching since 1960. Is DeWitt really this shoddy a fielder? Is someone working with Castro to hold the ball once in a while? Is Lee the only guy we have that can come up with a low throw? Hill seemed to have trouble all night handling pitches.
"It's a funny old world. Man's lucky if he gets out of it alive." W.C. Fields
A few things...
I can’t recall ever seeing Marmol allow 4 hits in an inning, at least as a reliever. If he has before, its been a rare occurrence. He should have been out of that inning on the Sandoval infield hit. Trammel had the infield in with one out and Prince Fielder’s Clone up to bat. Had they been playing at double-play depth, the probably get it. Or at least get the runner at 2nd.
You really think Nady bats for Fontenot if Bochy goes to the lefty? I say Byrd.
If Hoffpauir’s error didn’t do any damage, why mention it?
I know we discussed this yesterday Al, but you’re right about Colvin in the OF, he takes poor routes and drops way to many balls. That ball in the 7th inning should have been caught. I’m not advocating for the Cubs to try him at first, yet. But he definitely needs some more practice in the OF. I still say he’s a LF long-term.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
You really think Nady bats for Fontenot if Bochy goes to the lefty? I say Byrd.
Maybe. That might have been a better matchup for the Cubs, but it worked out.
If Hoffpauir’s error didn’t do any damage, why mention it?
Because it was all part of having shoddy defense. Also, the error then forces Dempster to throw to another hitter, meaning he threw more pitches.
Agreed re: Colvin. He’s a good athlete and I think will be a good — not great — major league hitter. But he’s not a great outfielder.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Totally agree about detailing errors.
The errors in the first two innings were scary and symptomatic of a year that has seen a lot of one run games lost due to bad fundamentals, including sloppy defense. This one looked like it was headed that way, too. How many outs did the Cubs give the Giants in those two innings alone? It’s as if Dempster actually pitched the equivalent of a complete game.
One of Lee Elia's 15%
by waiting4cubs on Aug 11, 2010 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions
Point taken about the defense.
Castro almost threw one away in the 9th too, on the Sandoval infield single. He should have held onto that one.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
It sure looks to me ...
hits better when it’s colder outside or when he’s playing inside.
Fukudome?
If so, I complete agree, and thought the same thing watching the game last night. That would also explain why he plays better earlier in the season and fades as it warms up.
Teams we could potentially trade him to: Tampa, Seattle, San Francisco. GETITDONEJIM!
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Seriously.
This isn’t a bad idea. Maybe not now, but in the offseason, something like this can be sold to one of those clubs. He’d likely fit in well in Seattle.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Perhaps,
I actually could see Tampa taking him. But we’d almost definitely have to eat all of the contract. They are going to lose Crawford, Fukudome could be a fit there, as a 4th outfielder. However, my guess would be he’d get destroyed in the AL East.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Pitchers like Petite and Sabathia would own Fukudome
No way Tampa takes him unless they can pay him the MLB minimum.
He'd likely never face those guys, as he'd
be best utilized in a platoon role. If the Cubs traded him to Tampa and paid for most of or all of his salary, Tampa may do it. He plays solid defense, runs well, has a high OBP, works counts. He seems like he’d be a fit for a Joe Maddon managed ball club.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
OK - but what would he really be worth to TB?
On a team with front line talent and a $50M-$60M payroll, they are not likely to pay more than about $1M or so a year for what Fukudome could do. I doubt the Cubs are willing to eat $12M+ of his 2011 salary to move him.
I'd still do it if I were the Cubs.
Sometimes, you just gotta bite the bullet. Maybe if Tampa throws in a low-level prospect. We need to clear space in the OF for prospects and current players. The Cubs have no need for Fukudome and other teams know this. Seattle is not gonna want him, if they do, they’ll probably try to trade us back Milton Bradley. Perhaps we could swap a bad contract with Toronto or San Francisco? But if Tampa isn’t looking to add payroll, then Arizona and Houston are out too.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
I'm pretty sure Seattle wouldn't try to trade us back MB.
Though I LOL’d at your comment.
I think the Cubs’ willingness to bite the bullet on Kosuke will relate to how much they have to bite the bullet on Z. I don’t see the Cubs taking a huge bath on both guys in one offseason.
Another possibility could be KC.
Especially if the Cubs make a play for Greinke…Say we offer them a package of Cashner, H.J. Lee, a lower rated prospect (maybe Dolis) and Fukudome (as the throw-in/major league ready player to “help” them now). But KC would have to pay most of Fukudome’s contract KC may just be dumb enough to do that.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
They may be dumb enough but are certainly not rich enough
Moore’s 2009-2010 offseason flyers were $2M-$3M/year guys, not $7M-$8M.
True, but they just released Guillen
and traded away Ankiel. I have absolutely no knowledge of KC’s farm system, but they may need a veteran OF.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
More likely they need a young OF to learn on the job
It’s not like they are poised to contend in 2011. I don’t see anything KC would gain from Fukudome.
Its not Fukudome.
They’d be getting a potential front end starter in Cashner (I don’t see it, but its possible), a potential starting SS in Lee (who is supposed to be better than Castro), and Dolis, who projects to be a set-up man or closer down the road. That’s a good haul for KC.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
If he traded Greinke now, Moore would have to get an unlisted phone, move to an undisclosed address, and arrive at the stadium in disguise
Hard to be GM under those constraints.
Seriously, it would be signing his own firing papers.
He should have been fired 100 times over
at this point. This offseason for example, he signed: Jason Kendall, Scott Podsednik, Rick Ankiel, and Kyle Farnsworth.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
You are absolutely right
But trading Greinke would really get out the hate patrol in KC. It would be like the Twins trading Maurer – no matter what they got, it wouldn’t be enough.
Are we really going back down the path of leveraging our future for the present?
Greinke is very good, yes. He’ll be around for 2011 and 2012 at a good price (13.5MM). Do you honestly believe that if the Cubs get Greinke it will be worth it? They most likely wont be competing in 2011 and when they may be ready to really pick it up in 2012, he’s already in the last year of his contract.
Greinke shouldn’t even be on our radar.
Sure...
Greinke is 26! He will be 29 in October of 2012. He’d still be in his prime, I see no reason why the Cubs couldn’t resign him after 2012 or give him an extension before he hit the open market. He’s a legit ace and a former Cy, start building for 2012 now by getting your future ace.
Leveraging our future? Cashner is a nice prospect, but I’m not convinced he’s a front-end of the rotation starter, I think he’ll be a reliever/closer (but let KC figure that out). Lee is expendable, we have Castro at SS. Dolis is a nice arm, but is expendable IMO.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Why not just sign him in 2012 when he's a FA then?
Why do you need to trade for him for 2 years where he realistically isn’t going to be enough to fix the Cubs?
Cashner is projected by many to be a solid #3 – he’s still young and was REALLY starting to figure things out in AAA before the Cubs called him up to shove him in the bullpen. Give him one more year in AAA and he will be ready to help this team.
Hak-Ju Lee is a legit lead off prospect who has incredible speed and is very very good defensively. He’s so good defensively that he would likely push Castro to 2B. He is still raw and most likely 3 years away, so we haven’t even begun to see what he may be capable of.
The entire point is, Cashner and Lee have the potential to help our team about the time we’ll really be ready to move forward. You want to give that up to watch Greinke pitch for 2 years when it may not matter at all. Sign him in 2013, great, get it done – but don’t trade for him now for 2 years of production on a team that isn’t competing for a WS.
I think the team can compete in 2012.
As long as they come away with a power-hitting first-baseman (Fielder, Gonzalez, and Pujols) after 2011 and Greinke.
I’m not convinced Cashner will be a starter. He never was one, until this year. He has one pitch. I agree that Lee is a phenomenal prospect, but he’s not a slam dunk. Sometimes, to get quality, you need to give quality.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Also,
take the Red Sox as an example: after 2005, they traded away Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, and 2 other prospects for Josh Beckett (as well as Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota).
The key pieces in that trade were Beckett and Ramirez. The Sox were not ready to contend for a WS in 2006, but they made the trade and gave up a hell of a prospect in Ramirez to get it done. Then in 2007, they were ready to compete and did win a WS thanks in large part to Beckett.
Also, Lee can only hope to be as good as Ramirez. I’m sure the Red Sox would love to have him still, but I’m sure they’re content with their WS in 2007.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
You're comparing a prospect with one of the best SS in the game.
And even if we can possibly compete in 2012, I’m not willing to risk 2013 and beyond for a rental that’s useful for 1 year – I’m just not.
No I'm not.
Hanley Ramirez in 2005 WAS A PROSPECT!
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
No, you were...
Also, Lee can only hope to be as good as Ramirez.
As I said, of course Lee can only hope to be as good as one of the best SS in the game. It’s a crazy comparison at this point.
I said lee can only
hope to be as good as Ramirez, yes. That is a good goal for any prospect. That’s the point he’s a prospect! Just like Ramirez was in 2005, when the Red Sox traded him. He was their future at SS too. I’m sure they’d rather have him than Scutaro right now.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Tricky balance there
Hanley is definitely superior to Scutaro and will be for a long time. But the Red Sox DO have a “2007 World Champions” banner hanging in their park. I’d give up a whole farm system of HOF candidates and all of Tom Ricketts’ descendants for one of those.
Acquiring Greinke is not leveraging future for present
This would be akin to the Tigers acquiring Miguel Cabrera then signing him to a long extension. A great way to lock up an elite talent just as he is about to enter his prime. If the Cubs were to acquire Greinke without losing anyone off the MLB roster, they would be much closer to contending in 2011 or 2012. No guarantees, but also no guarantee that the prospects ever develop.
by JSB on Aug 11, 2010 10:44 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
You're assuming they WOULD sign him to an extension.
That is no gaurantee. What if they make those trades and he ends up elsewhere in 2013?
Don't be obtuse
Of course that is under the assumption that you sign him to an extension. You don’t make the trade without a reasonable assurance that he would sign an extension. This isn’t rocket science. Look at the players in a similar situation to Greinke: Johan Santana, Cabrera etc. They all signed extensions. There is no reason to assume that Greinke wouldn’t do the same.
I am all for rebuilding, but we don’t have a pitcher with even the potential to be a Greinke in the system right now. If you can get him, you do. Elite pitchers like Greinke in their prime don’t come on the market very often.
And you're assuming
the Cubs can compete in 2013 with prospects and a rotation of what exactly?
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Exactly
The strength of our system appears to be up-middle and 3-5 rotation prospects. If you can trade from a position of strength for something you are lacking, you do it. I don’t know if Cashner or Lee + _ would get it done, but if they would then you have to do it.
The other thing to consider is that if the Royals put Greinke on the trading block, he isn’t getting to free agency in 2012. Plus, then you will have to bid against the Yankees, Red Sox etc. and Greinke’s price-tag only goes up.
Exactly.
The Cubs probably get outbid if he hits free agency then we’re stuck with an unknown rotation.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Id much prefer signing Cliff Lee to a 5 year deal
This offseason and keeping prospects.
Well,
by your logic, what is the point of signing Lee if we can’t compete until 2013? Since we’ll be wasting 2011 and 2012 seasons from Lee.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
I didn't say we'd be wasting 2012.
I said we’d waste 2011 and possibly compete in 2012. Yes, you waste 1 year with Lee on the roster most likely, but then you get 4 good years out of him instead of only 1. At the same time, you aren’t giving up any prospects to do that.
Lee has risks too.
Who knows what he’ll bring us? He’s been fairly overworked the last few seasons, say he gets hurt and we’re on the hook for another $100M, think Jason Schmidt and the Giants. Plus Lee is 6 years older than Greinke. Both are risky. For what its worth, I’ll take Greinke.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
I agree
I think prospects are worth giving up to acquire an elite player entering their prime. Especially prospects that don’t have elite ceilings. The only prospect in our system that seems to have an elite ceiling is BJackson, and maybe Vitters.
It depends on years/money
If we could sign Lee to a somewhat reasonable deal: 5 years/100 million, I would be in favor of it. But if we are talking 6 years 130 or something like that, I am not sure I would prefer that to acquiring Greinke. The obvious plus to building through free agency is that you don’t give up prospects. The minus is that you get older players and often pay more than you would if you gave an extension to a player already under team control.
That's the risk you take
But Hendry has a track record of keeping the players he wants to keep and getting contract extensions worked out for usually less than market value. He didn’t let DLee, Rami, BigZ, or Dempster walk.
The Cubs don’t know yet whether Cashner will be a starter or a reliever, he needs to work on his command for his secondary pitches before he can even sniff a starting rotation, Lou and Hendry on several recent occasions have intimated that Cashner is better suited to be a reliever. Outside of Castro, BJackson, and CArcher, the Cubs lack high-end stars in the minors, most of our prospects read like middle of the rotation starters, relievers, and toolsy types of players. Read some of the minor league recaps and posts by Josh77 and toonster (sp?).
I’d be okay with trading any of these guys, Cashner, Colvin, Vitters, et al. if it can bring a known commodity like Greinke to the team. Plus trading for Greinke would still allow the Cubs to sign Adam Dunn. Just those two guys would make the Cubs a contender in 2011. With even more money coming off the books after 2011, the Cubs could also be significant players in the FA market after the 2011 season and contend for a WS in 2012.
If I was Hendry, the biggest moves of the off-season for me would be to sign Adam Dunn, trade for Greinke, and trade Fukudome to which ever team will take him.
I'm well aware of the farm system we have...
And I think that the only way you trade for someone like Greinke is if you are able to work out an extension before the deal, otherwise it’s a waste.
Hendry's got the track record of doing just that
The point I was trying to make is that we could trade a bunch of question mark prospects for someone that isn’t a question mark. Then let Hendry work out an extension. Its very rare for a traded player to give the team he’s being traded to a window to work out an extension, especially with 2 years remaining on Greinke’s contract. I think this happened with JSantana and the Mets and maybe Halladay and the Philles.
There’ll be plenty of time for Hendry to hammer out an extension with Greinke’s agent
And I'll argue my opinion
That if you don’t get that window, you don’t make the trade. I don’t care about Hendry’s track record, i’m not risking 3 of our top 10 prospects on it.
I'd rather the Cubs use the Yankees model with prospects
Unless you know they are going to be elite players (like Cano, Jeter, Posada, for us Geo, Castro, Marmol, hopefully BJackson an CArcher), trade them for elite, high-salary guys. In my opinion, Cashner, Colvin, and some of the other guys in the system aren’t elite prospects, they are just middle of the pack and if the Cubs maintain payroll, they can absorb the contracts of these elite players
I know some believe Cashner is an elite prospect, I’m not so certain having watched him over the last couple of months. If the Cubs only view him as a reliever, trade him away
I guess we’ll just agree to disagree about this
I should also add
that if Hendry traded for Greinke, I would like to believe it would be under the assumption, that a contract extension would have to be worked out.
I'd argue that Cashner has a higher ceiling than Jay Jackson.
I don’t like the fact that they made him a reliever as he was making huge strides forward this year. I wouldn’t call him elite, but probably our 2nd best pitching prospect.
Colvin I completely agree with you on, he’s fine but nothing special.
We can’t take the Yankees model because they spend $220 million or more – it’s much easier for them to do that. We are sitting on some bad contracts through 2014 and need to play smart for a bit.
Obviously, the Cubs can't have a $220million payroll
But they could absorbs Greinke’s salary and sign Adam Dunn if they maintain the $145-150million payroll the Cubs have in 2010.
Use the Yankees model within a Cubs/Mets/RedSox type of budget.
I'd say the Red Sox use the same model as the Yankees
just on a more limited budget that is conducive to their market size.
They are faster to move off players as they age
Like shipping off Manny and downgrading Varitek’s role/cost.
They also are more farm system oriented
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
agree with you about Cashner
I’m also pissed at the Cubs for using him as a reliever. I’d much rather see him develop command of his secondary pitches as a starter. I’d leave him in AAA and let him start all of next season….
What bad contracts do we have through 2014?
The only bad contract we have that extends that far is Soriano’s, and that looks like it will only be a waste of $6-8 million/year. Dome is done in 2011, Rami is done in 2011, Z is done in 2012. We really are only hamstrung on payroll in 2011.
I just said bad contracts through 2014
I understand that Soriano will be the last one standing that year. I’d argue that Zambrano through 2012 will be annoying as well since we will want a front line starter to come on board.
Hendry sure doesn't have a track record of resinging for less than full market value
It’s probably been his biggest detraction as a GM.
He is a testicle-less negotiator.
Player options,NTC,No Arbitration,Voidable years
Add into it that every vet on the roster is making 15-35% ABOVE market. And it really points to a change needing to be made.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
Not exactly,
he got Dempster for less than he’d have likely gotten in the FA market after 2008. Same for Ramirez a few years back.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Ramirez I'll give you
Except he threw in a NTC,Void-able year AND a one way player option.
Dempster’s contract set the market for the rest of the free agent class. It wasn’t any kind of hometown discount.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
Hendry's been terrible with singing FAs from other teams
But he’s been great at locking up the Cubs own FAs that Hendry wants to keep at below-market value
Agree with this
That’s why I think Fukudome is the one that gets shipped out, he has less money remaining on his contract than BigZ. I can’t see the Ricketts eating $35+ million of Z’s contract, eating $9-11million of Fukudome’s contract would seem to be much more palatable, and could still save the Cubs a few million bucks.
Z’s got a lot of work to do before the Cubs would be able to trade him without having to eat 99.5% of his salary
Seems like an extreme "Sell Low" in both cases
I hope the Cubs don’t feel the need to move these guys. Productive overpaid players are still useful and productive. Knee jerk salary dumping is seldom a productive venture.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
Don't tell that to the Miami Heat.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Are they playing baseball now?
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
No, not that I'm aware of.
This was a response to: “Knee jerk salary dumping is seldom a productive venture”.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
apples and oranges
NBA is a salary cap league.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
In a way maybe.
But operators running a pro-sports franchise are not all that different….The Cubs or any team in baseball don’t have a salary-cap, but most teams do have a de-facto salary cap set by ownership and management.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
true, but
If not for the salary cap restraints. I doubt that Miami gives away Beasley,Cook and a 1st round draft pick for no return.
In MLB Miami would have been able to keep all 3 of those assets.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
I agree it is unfortunately sell low in both cases
If the Cubs can get some team to take Fukudome + $9-10 million bucks, they should do it. That would give them a few million bucks of salary relief + Colvin is making the league minimum, so we have low-salary guy who can step in and provide equivalent or superior production than Fukudome.
I guess it would be easiest to view RF as Colvin + a few million bucks =s Fukudome in 2011
If they cubs could trade Kfuk
And only have to chip in 5-6 Million its one thing.
Paying all but 1-2 million is crazy to me. You couldn’t get an .360-380 OBP 4th outfielder who can play all 3 positions for that.
Cubs need to look at replacement costs, and weigh it against possible Colvin regression to his ML track record.
Colvin,Byrd,Soriano AREN’T starting 162×3 games next year.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
That is wy Al's scenario of finding a way to get him back to Japan may be the best hope
He may have more value there and save the Cubs more money. How it could get done is the stickly part.
We will still need a 4th outfielder and Colvin insurance
Fukudome sure isn’t worth 13.5.
But it sure seems shortsighted to pay 12.5 to trade him away, only to turn around and look to sign another free agent to take his place?
Tyler Colvin was a sub 800 OPS minor league guy. His OBP is sinking closer to the 300 territory.
I’m not sold.
Chances are high that Colvin is a 4th outfielder, just like Fukudome is.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
I never suggested signing a FA outfielder?
Yes Colvin has been struggling, but he’s a rookie, who spent most of last season in AA and really wasn’t on the Cubs’ radar to be in the majors before spring training. He’s made extraordinary progress this season and I think he deserves a shot next year in RF.
Bring up Brett Jackson, LaHair, or Fuld to be the extra outfielder, or in Jackson’s case a starter. 2011 is going to be a rebuilding year, there is really no reason not to give Colvin a shot.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Also,
the Cubs dumped Sosa for Fontenot. Was that shortsighted?
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Teams don't often dump the face of the franchise.
And there were a TON of extenuating circumstances surrounding Sosa. I’ll give Hendry a pass on that one.
Don't be stupid
Sosa still had an OPS of .911 in 2003 and .849 in 2004. I can’t even imagine the outcry if Hendry had tried to dump Sosa in the 2003-2—4 offseason when the club was looking to contend for a World Series. Sosa was still a premier OF up until when the Cubs dumped him. To suggest anything else is simply revisionist history.
Or it's asking our GM to be clairvoyant.
Anyway, Sosa had a clause in his contract that would have guaranteed him another year after being traded (IIRC). He waived that to get the hell out of Chicago, but I doubt he would have in, say, June 2004.
Clairwoyance would be good
How do we hire front office staff who have it.
Time travel would also help….
Even trading him in 2004 would have been stupid
You don’t trade the best (or one of the best hitters) on a team that is trying to win the World Series. Sosa didn’t turn into dog crap as a player until he left Chicago. He was still a productive player in 2004.
but he burnt a lot
of bridges at the end of 2004…then he tried to get away from black but it didnt work…
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
by hansman1982 on Aug 11, 2010 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Agree
Unless the Cubs pick up nearly the whole salary Tampa Bay will have no interest. They need the salary room to keep their current players. I can’t see them spending much for someone who isn’t part of their long-term future.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
4th Outfielder
If we’re going to eat all of the contract – I’d just as soon keep him as our 4th outfielder for another year until his contract runs out. We’re probably not going to recoup much if any of his 2011 salary, and we certainly have had much much worse 4th outfielders on the team in the past. Fukudome has a decent bad and would provide very good late inning defense. I think we would be better off keeping him than dumping him for nothing. Otherwise we’ll just be overspending (again) on a Nady-type in the offseason.
exactly
Colvin insurance anyway.
Allow Brett Jackson to spend all of 2011 in AAA.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
ding ding ding
+1 to you and John – no need to spend $12 million to save $13 million if you are going to have to pay someone ~$500K roughly to play the same role about as well…
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
by hansman1982 on Aug 11, 2010 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions
So, let's see ...
Toronto, Tampa Bay, Seattle, San Fran, Houston, Arizona, Milwaukee.
Also, any idea if Kosuke hits better at night?
I've tried to figure out Fukudome and I've come to one conclusion...
…he’s just not that good. It’s not being in America, it’s not cold vs. hot, it’s not day vs. night. He’s simply overmatched.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
I don't think it's THAT simple.
Kosuke is NOT that good. His contract is a joke, and Hendry made a huge mistake signing him. I know, I know Al (and others) — Hendry wasn’t the only stupid GM in this case. Which is hardly a defense …
But I digress. Anyway, I think it’s possible that Kosuke would play better in a dome stadium with more night games.
That's possible.
But it’s up to Hendry to try to make other teams think the improvement would be MORE than marginal.
What would you suggest?
Ask Lou to only play him in dome stadiums and at night? It’s worth a shot I suppose.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
Nah.
The Cubs won’t play in enough domes between now and the end of the season. I think this is a situation where Hendry throws a lot of numbers at opposing GMs, and hope they buy his act.
Here's the plan:
Hope that MLB wants to expand and add two more teams, one in Montreal (dome) and a team in San Antonio (dome) and make Fukudome available in the expansion draft.
I’m joking, but I can dream.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
You don't sell the steak...
…you sell the sizzle.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
:: Bada Boom ::
If the Cubs still have a chance, no matter how small, it’s still Go Cubs, damn the math and pass the KoolAid.
Colvin should be a good outfielder.
Just need to keep him out of CF going forward.
I love that Fontenot came through, I always liked this guy. I know he isn’t what we need, or all that good for that matter, but I would like to see him get a decent shot with another team.
As far as Kosuke goes, I’m just glad he hasn’t dug himself into the ground with that swing yet.
Fontenot has actually been
a pretty solid PH this season. He’s got a lot to play for the remainder of the season too, like finding a job elsewhere next season.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Still don't understand why he has been left on the bench to die
Did he shoot Lou’s dog?
DeWitt may be a better 3B than Fotenot, but right now it looks like the rating at 2B is up for grabs and I don’t recall Fotenot kicking as many balls. If the team already had a LH hitting 2B, should they have asked for someone different in the Lilly/Theriot trade?
I agree with you.
Fontenot has gotten a bad deal this season. Lou seems unwilling to forgive Fontenot for his poor performance last season, yet starts and bats DLee every day in the 3-spot, despite the fact that his BA has been lower than his body weight for the majority of the season.
I’m not sure why they wanted DeWitt either, it seems the organization is infatuated with his swing. Which looks OK, but doesn’t produce most of the time. My guess is they are prepared to let Fontenot walk after this season. He should catch on somewhere as a lefty-bat who can play a few positions (one really) coming off the bench.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
And when he got a full-time shot last year,
he sucked.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 11, 2010 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions
So?
Lee sucks, Ramirez sucks, Fukudome sucks every year, Soto sucked last year, Dempster sucked in the past, Theriot sucked. I could go on and on. Fontenot wasn’t the reason the Cubs fell off the map last season. And Aaron Miles played way too much at 2B as well.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
As did Theriot
Who couldn’t be blasted out of the lineup with dynamite. And DeWitt may only become the next Joe Morgan if he goes on to become an obnoxious broadcaster.
So why did one guy who sucked get left to rot while Lou trotted out 3-4 of them every day?
Maybe because those other guys
don’t have a history of sucking?
And maybe because some players are better when utilized to their strengths?
by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 11, 2010 9:27 AM CDT up reply actions
History means squat
When you are sucking now, how you are played should reflect that. A guy should not be able to spend two flaming months batting .160 in cleaup or three months with an OBP of .315 in leadoff – there is no excuse for a manager doing that when there are other guys doing better. If you stop sucking, you should be played differently, but guys in slumps are what the 7-8 spots are for.
But hey, I get it
It’s another cudgel to bash Lou, so feel free. I think the heartbreak of psoriasis is his fault, too.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 11, 2010 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions
NBF ...
you honestly think that playing Theriot almost exclusively over Fontenot (earlier in the season) was a good idea? And don’t equivocate by saying it wouldn’t have mattered based on what other Cubs were doing.
Yep
Look at what Fontenot did last season when he was exposed.
I sense more revisionist history here, eg.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 11, 2010 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions
I sense that you're just digging in to defend Lou, NBF.
I was a big-time critic of Fontenot in 2009. But he was showing signs of improvement early this year — notably, he was hitting the ball to left field a lot.
Anyway, Fontenot was overexposed in 2009 because he had to play third and because he had to face lefties. I’m not saying he should have been asked to do either of those things regularly, but a straight platoon with Theriot at second — or at least a start here or there — would have made a ton of sense.
FWIW, Bruce ...
I think Lou doesn’t get enough credit for the managing job he did in 2009. He made a few head-scratching decisions, but considering all the problems last year (Soriano, Aramis, MB, Soto, Gregg), it’s pretty amazing that the Cubs won 83 games and were in the race until late in the year. I’m not in the camp that criticizes Lou for the offseason moves after 2008, because we don’t know how much of a role he played there.
That said, I think Lou’s done a TERRIBLE job this year.
NOT Bruce and I agree that Lou is a great manager and can do no wrong!
Of course all of the players having down years should play! They had a good season at some time in the past! Like Lou!
Yeah, just more of the 2010 Mystery of Lou
Not making batting orders that reflect actual performance, misusng the bench, 1 inning limits on bullpen pitchers. No matter how many games he has “won,” he sure didn’t win any this year.
I did and I got the answer
I believe that at the end of his story, Anna Karenina threw herself in front of the train…
What is baseball season weather like in Japan?
If it’s cool, maybe Fukudome would be a perfect candidate for SF (hope, hope).
And just to mess with your sense of appropriate seasons, football season is warm and the vendors probably do big business in iced beverages.
“The coldest winter I ever spent was one summer in San Francisco.” – Samuel Clemens
@Cooliogirl47: Golden Lady message in the game thread for you
If the Cubs still have a chance, no matter how small, it’s still Go Cubs, damn the math and pass the KoolAid.
So the Cubs have...
…recent victories when facing Lincecum, Carpenter, and Halladay, yet we can’t beat the Pirates and Astros? What a frustrating season!!!
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
or is our scouting dept bad?
do they not focus on anyone but the top guys which can be seen on ESPN multiple times a week?
by cozmotaylor123 on Aug 11, 2010 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions
Of course
Why is it Cubs fans always look for an ulterior motive?
by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 11, 2010 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions
Said it last night, but I'll repeat it:
[Last night’s] game should quiet down those who clamor for Hoffpauir as the Opening Day 1B in 2011. He’s a great AAAA player and doesn’t belong in a team that wants to sell the image of “contender” as we all expect the Cubs to sell their product next year.
Was there ANYONE
Seriously suggesting Hoff for 1B next year? Are you sure you did not fall for one of TJ’s posts?
I would say there is an under 5% chance Hoff could be on the BENCH next year and that is being generous.
"Lou Piniella's been a great manager for a long time and I stand by him completely"
Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Aug 11, 2010 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions
For once, we agree.
But I’ll lower your number. There is a 0% chance that Hoffpauir will be on the 2011 Cubs.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Depends how cheap and desperate the Cubs are
so I am not willing to write it off totally.
"Lou Piniella's been a great manager for a long time and I stand by him completely"
Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Aug 11, 2010 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions
I like Hoff but do not see any way he is the starter next year....
It is a spot where the Cubs can really improve the offense (Dunn)…
More like 0%.
I like Hoffpauir, but he’s not a big-leaguer. He’s here for awhile to help the Cubs while Lee is on leave, that’s why Hoff is in the organization. As soon as Lee is back, he’ll get sent back to Iowa and help them compete for a championship.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
That was last year after Hoff hit .400 in spring training
"Any player who gets the opportunity to play at Wrigley should welcome it"
No. People suggested it this summer.
But whatever. I’m glad we’re all in agreement he’s not MLB-capable.
If anyone is "clamoring" for Hoffpauir...
… they need to check his age. He will be 31 before Opening Day. He ought to go play in Japan.
He’ll be sent back to Iowa as soon as Derrek Lee is back. He’s only here to fill a temporary roster spot, nothing more.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I'd waive Nady first
There is a 0.01% chance of Hoffpaiur being useful in 2011. There is a 0.00% chance of Nady being useful. 0.01% > 0.00%….
Hoffpauir
acutally might be able to be OK in Japan.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 11, 2010 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions
Sorry but he is no Matt Murton
"Lou Piniella's been a great manager for a long time and I stand by him completely"
Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Aug 11, 2010 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Actually, he probably is, at least as a hitter.
That uppercut swing of his is perfect for the smaller Japanese parks.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
In the Trib today is says that Nady and Fontenot were almost traded to the Giants....
I wonder which team pulled the plug?
From what I heard, the Giants did.
The Cubs very much wanted to make that deal.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I was waiting for us to blow this game
Thanks for failing at losing, Cubs.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).
The tension gets to be too much, doesn't it?
You find yourself not breathing for extended periods. God, I love this team – they make the everyday frustations of real life seem much more bearable!
Castro
Maybe it’s because the Cubs are out of it but Starlin Castro really doesn’t get enough appreciation. The kid’s hitting over .310 while playing shortstop. It seems like people don’t care. I mean we have a potential franchise player for the first time since a roided up sammy. When you go to Wrigley you don’t even see his jersey that much. I don’t get it
by LouPiniellaIsRetiring on Aug 11, 2010 10:29 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Actually, I think it's kinda great.
Castro has been so good and so controversy-free that he’s flying under the radar. Considering the flameouts diet flameouts and star rookies becoming only serviceable major leaguers this franchise has had in the past few years — Prior, Kevin Orie, Wood, Pie, Patterson — a good rookie who is succeeding without too much hype is refreshing.
Castro is acting like he’s been there before. I don’t know exactly why or how it’s happening, but I think we should let it happen.
Yeah - I am thrilled by his play
In the black hole that 2010 has become, Castro is the one ray of light that has managed to escape.
His play has been great.
But I think the lack of hype will be a big plus for his development.
Not to mention
Soto showing Rookie season wasn’t a fluke, and Colvin showing he can hit the cover off the ball. So maybe one ray of light and 2 shimmers?
OK - and if you blinked, you missed them all
I would feel better about Colvin if his BA hadn’t been steadily declining – he clearly has some adjustments to make. And whoever is manager has to remember how hard catching is on the body – try to play Soto for more than 115-120 games in a year and the cumulative wear and tear will catch up to him.
Valid points.
The best part about Colvin is that he’s good enough and cost-controlled to prevent the Cubs from spending $5 million on someone like Jacque Jones or Jeromy Burnitz. I don’t think Tyler will ever be an All-Star — just a good, No. 5 hitter with some pop.
My guess is that Soto gets some time off down the stretch. It will mean less wear and tear AND possibly lower his value as an arb-eligible player.
A left-handed
Ryan Ludwick?
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Actually ...
Colvin is kinda like what Ryan Theriot WAS. Theriot (in 2007 and 2008) was a cheap option at short whose flaws were forgivable because of the cost (also, because he was a better baserunner and cared more about OBP).
The difference being that Colvin
is considered to be a better prospect than Theriot was. He was a former #1 pick. TJ surgery set him back a few seasons ago, but he appears to have rebounded nicely.
Although I still say he’s a left-handed Ludwick: low average, low OBP, nice power, average at best defensive OF. Solid #6 hitter, maybe a #5. Looking at Ludwick’s career, Colvin is off to a far better start. I never knew Ludwick was such a journeyman…His 2008 w/ STL was outstanding and if we ever get anything near that from Colvin, I will run on the field and give him a high 5.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
You're probably right.
I was mostly referring to Colvin being a good option for the Cubs because his flaws can be ignored while he’s young and cheap — like Theriot.
I like the Ludwick comp as far as skill set.
But I think Colvin is more like Ludwick lite. He’ll never hit as well, but he’s a useful player who’s a good platoon player, serviceable starter, and excellent 4th outfielder who can play all three positions.
by cubsforever on Aug 11, 2010 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions
I wouldn't go that far
Ludwick didn’t break out until his late 20s. Colvin is already way ahead of that. There is no reason that Colvin can’t tighten up his approach at the plate, and he will continue to get bigger. Colvin could easily become a 30-hr a year hitter, but he also could become a 4th outfielder.
Quite possible that Colvin is producing over his head right now
Guy is slugging almost 70 points what he has in the minors. The on base is still horrible. And he has hit sub .250 since the end of May.
Colvin will have value as a 4th outfielder who can play all 3 positions (Just like Fukudome). However I doubt he could outproduce Matt Murton over a full season at the plate.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
Haha,
that’s the funniest thing I’ve read today!
The guy is a ROOKIE! He’ll be 25 in a few weeks. I think he needs more time to develop.
Plenty of good major league players have had very nice careers and have had worse rookie seasons than Colvin is having.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
In fact,
Colvin is on pace to surpass Murton’s career-best season of 2006 in categories such as HR, SLG, OPS, and OPS+. He may also catch him in doubles and RBIs. Colvin as of right now has had 298 AB, Murton had just over 500 in 2006.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
When Murton saw full time PT
He put up an 820 OPS.
Colvin is right there today, but has been trending downwards.
Murton was the better hitter/on base guy. Colvin looks to have more power.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
His career high OPS was .809.
Colvin is at .828 now and has been slumping lately. I think he’ll rebound somewhat.
Murton was hot-garbage and was worse defensively and on the base paths.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
He put up an over 900 OPS as a 23 year old in 2005
When he got starting PT in 2005-2006 he was sitting at 820.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/murtoma01.shtml
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
Too bad you didn't read that full stat line.
Yes he had a .908 OPS in 2005, but it was in 51 games and 140 AB’s that doesn’t even qualify as full season, not even close. Far too small of a sample size to be considered a full season.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
His career statline after 2006 was an 820 OPS
Stats count from day 1. The don’t self destruct in 20 seconds if you didn’t have enough to qualify.
Just as Colvin’s 785 Minor League OPS counts.
Maybe he bucks the trend and turns into Ted Williams? Point is that guys like Murton or Colvin pop up each year and outperform their ML track records.
Usually those guys regress into what they were. (see Rhodes,Tuffy: Smith, Dwight: Walton, Jerome)
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
You are placing way too much
stock on minor league performance with Colvin. His past season there he was recovering from TJ surgery and prior to that he was still seen as a very raw talent.
Murton’s career OPS: .788.
Look at a player like Gary Gaetti and his stats from when he was a rookie and a younger player, very similar, if not worse than both Murton and Colvin. He developed into a solid MLB 3B for almost 2 decades.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Can we name 1 player in history
That became a MLB star after putting up such meager Minor League numbers?
Ronny Cedeno hit much better than Colvin as a minor league player.
Not saying it’s impossible. Just saying that track records DO mean something. And Murton,Rhodes,Smith,Walton and Brant Brown all started off playing above their heads as Cubs.
Each one of them eventually settled back into what their track records told that they would be.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
I don't have access to minor league stats.
But Colvin has arguably out-performed each one of those players you named with the exception of Smith.
Look at Major league numbers, he has some…I’ve been looking for former players with similar numbers to Colvin at his age and this early in their careers, Paul O’Neill is one such player, but I’m not expecting Colvin to be the next Paul O’Neill.
But minor league numbers don’t really mean shit in the grand scheme of things, if they did Micah Hoffpauir would be on his way to the Hall of Fame.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
If Colvin was a 19 year old kid out of HS or Latin America I could buy this
However this is a 25 year old kid who came from a major Division 1 program.
.785 OPS for a corner OFer is not acceptable in ANY league.
I’ll root for the kid to buck the trend. Expecting it seems wishful,and expecting it is setting up for failure IMHO.
We shall see
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
These are just a few examples:
But Ryne Sandberg had a career minor league OPS of .749, Paul O’Neill .727, Robin Ventura .669, Gary Gaetti .793.
Don’t place too much stock in minor league numbers.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Murton was a one-tool player
Murton was only an OBP guy. He lacked the power to play a corner spot and he was mediocre to bad defensively. Also didn’t have an arm. All of Colvin’s tools are better except for OBP (contact). Colvin is a much better prospect and can actually even play a little bit of CF.
Agreed
At the very least Colvin will have some level of value even if its as a 4th Outfielder who can defend all 3 positions.
It’’s the same value that Fukudome has in MLB.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
Its completely different than Fukudome.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
He's 25,
Fukudome is 33.
Colvin will make around $500K next season, Fukudome will make $13.5M.
It is more likely that Colvin will hit more HR, drive in more runs, hit more doubles, triples, slug a higher percentage, have a higher OPS. Those are things you want from a corner OF. Fukudome hits like light-hitting shortstop from the 80s.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
I'm not talking about who is the better value
I’m talking actual on field production and worth.
Colvin will be useful even if as a 4th outfielder who can defend all 3 spots. The same thing that Fukudome is useful for.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
Still, Colvin is going to give you
better production and is worth more because he is younger and makes less money.
Are you sure you’re not confused with cost?
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Better production remains to be seen
I hope you are right. I hope Colvin turns into everything you think he will.
I’m just not completely sold yet.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
Neither am I.
But I’ve seen enough of Fukudome to know that the bar hasn’t been set that high. I’m in no way assuming that Colvin is a future all-star, but I think he is currently and will continue to be a better player than Fukudome.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
I agree with you completely here
I love Fukudome’s approach at the plate, I’m a huge fan of taking a lot of pitches. I love OBP, but only when it is combined with a decentish SLG, and the Fuke just doesn’t have it. I’d like the Fuke more if he wasn’t going to be making $14million next season
Colvin gives you excellent SLG and low OBP, but his total OPS is likely to be higher than the Fuke next season
I'd say three rays of light.
This is part of the reason why I don’t think 2011 will be that bad. We have three good young players set in the lineup every day (Castro, Soto, Colvin), three serviceable veterans (Soriano, Byrd and probably Ramirez) and a decent, cost-controlled guy at second (DeWitt).
We don’t have a legit ace, and the bullpen other than Marmol, Marshall and Cashner is terrible. But I can see why Hendry thinks three or four good moves could put this team back into the realm of contention.
Still, I think the upside to next year’s team is about 85 wins, which isn’t always enough for the postseason. But the right free-agent signings/trades in the offseason will make 2011 brighter than this awful season, and it could put the team in the position to spend more and be really good in 2012.
I would agree with all of this.
Scratch that, I will agree with all of this. I look at the guys we are going to have in the field next year, and I honestly see a pretty good lineup. Not great. Add a good 1B bat, and we can have a solid lineup. Obviously bullpen needs work, not including Grabow I hope. I’m actually fairly comfortable with the rotation depth we have, just still missing an ace. Good enough to be in a playoff race later in the year IMO
I wouldn't bet money on the Cubs making the posteason next year.
But I wouldn’t rule it out. Some key moves need to be made, Ramirez needs to bounce back and the young guys absolutely can’t regress.
But … if all that happens, who knows?
Exactly.
Like I said, IMO, we could be good enough to be in the race for a majority of the year, which will be good for ticket sales and keeping the interest. Then, 2012 can be our first opportunity to really make something happen. I wouldn’t mind that, as long as there are still young guys getting chances to get on the field.
The other way to ensure the fans keep coming ...
is to sign a big-name FA who will be there in 2011 and who can help the team when it really gets good in 2012. That’s one of the reasons I’m an advocate of exploring a deal with Cliff Lee.
And if that doesn’t work, I think a lot of fans would be interested in the return of Ted Lilly AND the idea of Adam Dunn hitting 50 HRs at Wrigley.
I'm sure.
I live in Virginia, but I would definitely have to fly out to see either scenario. I, like most of us, also see this offseason as the first test for the Ricketts family. Are they willing to keep the payroll and spend some money to keep the product enticing.
And if that doesn’t work, I think a lot of fans would be interested in the return of Ted Lilly AND the idea of Adam Dunn hitting 50 HRs at Wrigley.
I’m coming around to the idea of signing Adam Dunn and Ted Lilly. With Lilly, I wouldn’t want to do it if he was a type A FA and the Dodgers offer him arbitration because Dunn is certain to be a type A and then we’ll lose both our 2nd and 3rd round picks in next year’s draft. The 1st round pick should be protected because we should be picking in the top 15. That’s a double-edged sword though because next year’s draft is supposed to be deep with high-ceiling prospects
Again, eg, I agree
I don’t think next year is as hopeless as many others claim, for the same reasons you cite. Of course, considering how this team has been playing, it’s going to look bleak to some.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 11, 2010 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Colvin
I am still not sold on Colvin as more than a 4th OF on a contender. He strikes out way too much and doesn’t walk enough. I think he should get 500 ABs in 2011, to see where he fits, but I would put him in a different category than Soto or Castro.
I agree that he doesn't walk enough.
But as a rookie, that’s something I think will develop. I’m interested in the HR capability though. Definitely too early to really tell, but hey, I’m allowed to be optimistic.
Yes
Colvin has vastly exceeded expectations this year. At the least it will prevent Hendry from throwing money at a stop-gap this off-season.
Never underestimate Hendry
And his primal need to overspend on complete mediocrity……
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
That reminds me - I need to send him my resume...
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
He's got confidence.
Something Pie and Patterson seemed to lack. Castro is still a free swinger and very raw, the fact that he’s hitting .310 is amazing. Wait til he learns some plate discipline.
But…he was the second best rookie on the field last night, Buster Posey looks like the goods.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
I get that but I mean When Derrek Lee’s name is announced he gets louder applause than Castro which makes no sense.
by LouPiniellaIsRetiring on Aug 11, 2010 10:38 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
That may be a good sign for Ricketts
If people aren’t paying attention, they may keep buying tickets even if the 2011 team struggles.
Yeah
I went last week and it’s all the same old jerseys like Lee and Ramierez.
by LouPiniellaIsRetiring on Aug 11, 2010 10:48 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah Sandberg and Santo are fine but seriously Zambrano jersey?
by LouPiniellaIsRetiring on Aug 11, 2010 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions
Those damn things are expensive
Once you have one, it’s a major financial commitment to jump to another.
Seriously.
My parents almost bought be a Nomar jersey back in 2004. I’m sure glad they didn’t.
That's why i'm getting
a Castro one. You know he’s going to be here for at least 5 years.
by LouPiniellaIsRetiring on Aug 11, 2010 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions
Exactly
I never buy Cubs stuff with anything other than “Cubs” on it. You never know who’s going to be in or out of favor, and who’s going to be on the team from one month to the next.
My nephew’s Zambrano shirt might look pretty stupid in another six months.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 11, 2010 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions
I suppose, NBF, that means you didn't buy a DeRosa shirt.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
In Wrigleyville ...
you can go into the shops and buy discounted jerseys of guys who have left in the offseason. I almost bought an Edmonds jersey post-2008.
I never bothered asking how cheap the MB jerseys were.
Last time I was in there
… Bradley jerseys were $50.
On sale at very low prices: Lee, Lilly, Fukudome… and Zambrano.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
You can haggle...
…My friend spotted a Karros jersey down there around 2005 and asked for the price, it was something like $50, he offered $25 and wore it home.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
I remember in college ...
when a friend of my ironically bought a LaTrell Sprewell jersey (this was after the choking incident). Sadly, I’m not a big enough fan of irony to buy something with MB’s name on the back.
You could buy the MB jersey...
…. and buy the letters “C O V I N”, take the “L” off the back of the MB jersey, take it to your local tailor, pay maybe $20 and voila! For about $80 or $90 (depending on the cost of the letters) you have a Colvin jersey.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Sticking with my #31
But I also have a game-worn #51 from 1997 – Terry Adams. Bought it at the sidewalk sale at the end of the 1998 season.
I’m feeling it might be appropriate to wear it this year.
"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas
by RiskyBusiness on Aug 11, 2010 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
That's a sweet pickup.
And I’m referring to the Adams jersey.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
It's the Grey road jersey
It does have the patch for retiring #42 for Jackie Robinson on it.
Best part. I came home with the jersey and a green $7 “Beware of Foul Balls” t-shirt for my wife. I got crap for that…
"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas
by RiskyBusiness on Aug 11, 2010 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
those are the only ones you can buy at a Wal-Mart type store, Soriano too
"Well-behaved women seldom make History"---Laurel Thatcher Ulrich
by cooliogirl47 on Aug 11, 2010 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Derrek Lee is a recognizable name and a guy who's had good seasons for better teams.
Castro is a great rookie on a terrible team. The attention has been on Z, Lou, and general ineptitude. And the Cubs are being somewhat overshadowed by the White Sox.
Castro, quietly, is having a great rookie year. The pressure has been minimal - compared with someone like Felix Pie, who wilted under the pressure of the ’07‘08 teams. I think it’s a good thing (in a weird way) for the Cubs and for Castro.
I don't think the pressure is the difference
Castro is much more prepared to hit at the MLB level than Pie ever was. Hell, even this year, when Pie is 25 he isn’t hitting as well as Castro. That being said, so sad that we gave him up for Heilman.
Really?
He was considered a 5-tool player…And was untouchable to JH. I think he was considered to be about equal. But who knows?
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Castro has the advantage of being a SS.
If both guys were outfielders, of course Pie would have had more upside.
I don't know about that
Castro’s ability to make contact and his approach at the plate are much better than Pie’s. Pie at age 20 spent the entire year in AA. Castro also ranked higher on the BA prospect list (#16) at age 20 than Pie ever did (peak of #27 at age 21). Think about how high Castro would rank on the prospect list if he had spent the entire season raking at AA this year. Probably top 5.
You might be right.
I don’t claim any expertise on the Cubs minor-league system.
Well he is no longer a prospect
I was just making the point that Castro is accomplishing in the MLB what Pie accomplished in AA at the same age.
CF is a premium position too,
at least it is to me…Maybe he wasn’t as highly regarded as Castro, but he was pretty close.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Pie's hype was more about tools than actual production
That was the scout in Jim Hendry all over again. He acts like he’s assembling a track and field team instead of a baseball team. Ditto for Tim Wilken so far.
Still not a legitimate mid order hitter in the pipeline.
Hasn’t been one since???? Palmeiro?
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
Vitters and Jackson
Jackson is demonstrating this year that he can be a middle of the order hitter. Vitters has the potential to develop into one. I know many are writing him off already, but he was only 20 and in AA. Far too soon to write him off.
I'd trade Vitters as part of a package to get Greinke
The only minor league guys I don’t want to see the Cubs trade is BJackson and CArcher. I’d like to hold on to HLee as well, but I wouldn’t cry if he were traded to KC.
Cashner, Colvin, Vitters, JJackson, and all the rest should be available in trades for elite players like Greinke, Fielder, AGon, etc….
royals wouldnt need him
they have moose, gordon, butler, and kila
by jesus christos on Aug 11, 2010 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Jackson is an intriguing prospect
I keep hearing a Mike Cameron comp.
Useful yes, but if Mike Cameron is your cleanup hitter. You aren’t likely an offensive juggernaut.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
I think Jackson is looking at more of a 5 spot
He’ll develop probably 15-20 HR power and hopefully some good OBP skills with good speed (but probably not a huge SB threat). I’d hope that we can find better production for our 3 and 4 hitters by the time he is ready.
There aren't many championship-level 4 hitters in the minors
That just isn’t a typical projection, those guys are oh so difficult to find.
Exactly...
And being a major market club like the Cubs, you can get players like that via free-agency: see 2011 offseason and Fielder/Gonazalez/Pujols. And surround them with pieces you develop through your farm system like Brett Jackson, or Colvin, or Soto, Castro, Szczur, etc…
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Good points, eg
If it ain’t broken, don’t fix it.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 11, 2010 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions
Wow!
not one mention of Starlin Castro (one of the best Cubs players at the moment) and his 2 hit, 3 RBI performance in the recap. This kid is going to be a star! He plays excellent defense and can swing the bat.
For some reason Castro's defense
Which has actually been a plus so far (despite the errors) has gotten more publicity than the fact that a 20-year SS has a .800 OPS from the proprietor of this site. Things that make you go, hmmm.
The kid makes errors
Making errors does not mean you aren’t good at defense. He gets to balls that a lot of shortstops do not (i.e., he covers more ground). I think part of the high number of errors is related to his amazing range. Two things I think he’ll get better with as gains more experience is 1) to hold on to the ball rather than trying to throw the ball when there’s no play to be made and 2) he double clutches sometimes, which has cost him some easy outs at 1st and 2nd, but he also makes up for that most of the time with his cannon arm.
I need to go out and buy a Castro jersey!
oh god
not double-clutching…
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
by hansman1982 on Aug 11, 2010 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions
You're right.
Castro had an excellent game. He’s a keeper.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
San Fran Ball Park
First time visiting this ball park and overall it was a good experience especially since the Cubs got the victory. One question, is there a box score anywhere in the stadium? I was sitting in the bleachers and arrived just after the DeWitt error but couldn’t find the box score anywhere from my vantage point. I really liked the pitch count and radar display on both the left and right field bleachers. But, man is there a LOT of advertisements in the park. I really didn’t like them hocking credit cards across the banner strip on the second deck but that’s just the Dave Ramsey fan in me. Also, Al is right…. it’s absolutely FREEZING in their!! But everyone I talked to said that Candlestick was worse due to more swirling winds. Also, there were quite a few small fights that broke out and appeared that alcohol had a lot to do with it. I will give credit to their security for stopping them quickly, in fact they even took down one fans name just for yelling at a cubs fan and told him he got loud again he would find his way out of the park. Anyway, just my thoughts.
Al, sorry I didn’t get over to your section. Maybe tomorrow’s game. I did meet a Cubs fan on the bart and told him to check out BCB for everything Cubs related!!
Thanks for passing the word!
I’m in the 200 level today. Haven’t bought tix for Thursday yet… got to see if it’s going to be sunny, in which case I may opt for bleachers.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
The bleachers
were really cold last night. I tried to come over to your section for a visit, but couldn’t get in w/out a ticket for club level. Enjoy the rest of your stay. On an unrelated topic- saw Cowboy Joe West sing on Friday at the Golddust on Powell.
"Chicago Cubs fans are ninety percent scar tissue." - George F. Will
saw Cowboy Joe West sing on Friday at the Golddust on Powell.
You lost a bet, I presume?
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Felt like it
I guess he shows up and sings on occasion- he was a better singer than ump.
"Chicago Cubs fans are ninety percent scar tissue." - George F. Will
Actually...
… last night I was in 132 on the main level. It was cold.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Am I correct
that they don’t have the box score within the ballpark? or could i just not see it from the bleachers?
by cubbiefanTN on Aug 11, 2010 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
They do have the lineups posted on the scoreboard...
… with current averages.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Fun game to watch but why
must they make it so intense in the last innings?
A lovely story:
One day, long, long ago, there lived a woman who didn't whine, nag or bitch. That would be me....
But that was a long time ago and it was just that one day.
The end
Few reported how the Cubs scored their first two runs
Single….stolen base, run scored
…single then stolen base and another single….run scored
Done by two rookies, memories of Denier and Sandburg
Actually reading the expert analysis on Colvin and Castro in this thread I think another season of development and see what we have is in order.
Colvin has some deficiencies on the edges but they can be developed where he can become a genuine B+ player, possibly an all star for a year or two.
Castro is still very raw, especially in the field but he too can develop much more. His quick hands at the plate is pure talent…development like Sandburg was developed will come when he understands when to hit for power.
but there are so many other positions….As for trading Vitters, that is nuts….develop him and he will be at 3B in 2012. Jackson might be playing the OF next year, possibly in place of Byrd or hope but it won’t happen Soriano, Next year starting pitching will have to be retooled as well.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Think "City Lights" books, in SF
1967, The summer of love……I finally understand Ivy Walls’ prose.
by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Aug 11, 2010 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions
luckily
we had THE STICK. mike fontenot that is. this guy is a good hitter.a shame he gets very little play im hoping he stays with the team next year but if he can be traded to a team that will appreciate him more thats ok too..
i loved
the remark by brenly when the cubs were plaing aggressive ball in the first. WHO ARE THESE GUYS. great stuff.
Game time today is 4:14 AM local for me, I hope to catch the last couple innings between 6 and 7 in the morning.
GO CUBS !!!
If the Cubs still have a chance, no matter how small, it’s still Go Cubs, damn the math and pass the KoolAid.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
Cubs By The Numbers
Cubs By The Numbers is a history of the ballclub by uniform number, but the biographies help trace the history of our beloved team in a new way. For everyone who's a Cubs fan, anyone who ever wore the uniform is like family. Cubs By The Numbers reintroduces readers to some of their long-lost ancestors, even ones they think they already know.
Click here to order your copy, available now!
Recent Stories in History
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Marlins agree to unretire No. 5 for Logan Morrison, who will honor his father’s favorite player
- Weatherman Derek Holland does Dallas TV
- Ask Alex: Will Julio Teheran or Matt Moore win rookie of the year?
- Ku Klux Klan, umpires and bowling: Why the minor leagues tossed out Jim Evans academy
- The Cardinals Hall of Fame can now be found at Bill Clinton’s library in Arkansas (Huh?)
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
