Matt Kemp wants a trade
Matt Kemp's agent says he thinks Kemp should be traded.
I still wonder whether a deal of Kemp for Marlon Byrd and a good prospect would make sense. Salary-wise, I think they are close enough to be ok for the Dodgers financial situation. The prospect would have to be significant for the Dodgers to sell the deal to fans, but Byrd is outperforming Kemp this year and the organization/fans seemed to have soured on Kemp this year, and Byrd would be very popular out there (as he'd be anywhere, since he's awesome).
Broxton is struggling as well, but as a courtesy to Al I'll hold off on any Byrd/Marmol for Kemp/Broxton suggestions.
almost 2 years ago
tomas21
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I like cheese with my hash browns
As far as the trade idea goes? I absolutely do not want.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).
Byrd/Marmol for Kemp/Broxton really IS a fantasy league type deal...
… where you trade your OF you don’t want and swap players at identical positions to make it somewhat “even”.
Byrd for Kemp? I dunno. I’m not sure the Dodgers would want Byrd. They might be looking for young pitching in return, in which case the Cubs would have, again, too many outfielders.
Would they be interested in Fukudome? Is there a bad Dodger contract the Cubs could take in return, along with Kemp and giving them that young pitching?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
The advantage of Byrd is that he's a much
more valuable asset, he plays the same position Kemp does, he is a more productive player right now than Kemp, he’s under contract for 2 more years at a similar salary to Kemp.
If we traded them Fukudome, we’d have to eat most of his contract AND throw in a much, much better prospect.
DEJESUS!!!
This meme of calling everything a fantasy league type deal
is REALLY old.
Byrd/Marmol for Kemp/Broxton is a reasonable number of players, takes into account salary and performance, and doesn’t leave huge questions hanging like “So who would they get to replace so-and-so?” In what sense does this bear any resemblance to a fantasy deal? Besides, nobody in fantasy leagues ever trades, anyway.
Trying to interest the Dodgers in Fukudome, on the other hand, is just silly.
Somebody take Aramis' bat off the restricted list, please.
Except...
… why would you trade Marmol for Broxton? I wouldn’t, except in a fantasy league.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
+1
why give up a pretty good closer, period?
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
If you get another one back?
I agree with Al’s point, trading basically equivalent players doesn’t often happen.
I agree with you
I should have said – why give up Marmol, Period.
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
still think you want broxton for marmol?
This article might want to have a word with you…not looking good as of late
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
Comparison
Age: Kemp: not quite 26 Byrd: 33
BABIP: Kemp: .314 Byrd: .342
wOBA: Kemp: .329 Byrd: .368
WAR: Kemp: .6 Byrd: 4.3
Even though Byrd for the moment is an upgrade, because of his age its highly doubtful the Dodgers would even consider it.
We have, right now
a surplus of quality mid-late rotation starters at the big league level and coming up in the minors. I think we could relatively painlessly send one of them to make the deal more palatable to the Dodgers.
DEJESUS!!!
Both are only under team control for the next two years
It’s their expected performance and cost in that period that matters, not age.
Besides, the Dodger coaches thinks Kemp dogs it, so his potential to be better is not guaranteed by being younger or even more talented.
Somebody take Aramis' bat off the restricted list, please.
That is a really good point
At first, I thought the trade idea was totally unrealistic, but if the Dodgers don’t want to sign Kemp to a long-term extension, it’s fairly reasonable. The pitching prospect we would have to give up might not even be Cashner/Archer/McNutt.
Even if it is one of those guys I would do the deal in a heartbeat
And it could make some sense for the Dodgers too. Kind of a “both sides could win, but the Cubs probably win a little bit more” sort of swap.
byrd
has a great attitude and gives 100.percent always. i hope he stays with the cubs a long time.
No no no no.
Four no andwers:
1. Kemp only has a two year deal, so there is no cost control for 2012.
2. Byrd is likely to have less variance in his 2011 numbers than Kemp. This team needs stability in production given the struggles of their top dollar guys (Z, Soriano, A-Ram), not more variance
3. If the criticism of Kemp is true, he’ll get roasted by the fans playing in Wrigley vs. the more laid-back LA.
4. He has a famous girlfriend, and she won’t be moving to Chicago… talk about a distraction.
It's a simple question, Doctor: would you eat the moon if it were made of ribs??
I don't see how you think that Kemp is less likely to have variance in his 2011 numbers than Byrd
Kemp’s WAR and ages:
23 1.7
24 3.2
25 5.1
26 0.6 (mostly due to a -15.3 in the field)
Byrd’s WAR and ages:
30 2.1
31 3.0
32 1.8
33 4.3
Given his previous career norms, I think it is safe to say that Byrd is likely to post between a 2 and a 3 WAR next year. Before this year, Kemp was on a natural progression to being a 5-6 WAR player annually. Kemp is the better player, and it’s not really close.
by JSB on Aug 13, 2010 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Because of a 4.5 win drop in one season!
I think there is an 80% chance of Byrd having a WAR between 2 and 3, and a 95% chance of having a WAR between 1.5 and 4.
What do you think the likely 80% and 95% range for Kemp’s 2011 is going to be? I think if he’s mopey because he misses his girlfriend and the Cubs won’t extend his contract, that it’s 80% between 1.5 and 3.7, and 95% between 0 and 6.
Thus, I think Byrd has less variance, even though Kemp has the higher expected value if you got to play the 2011 season 100 times.
It's a simple question, Doctor: would you eat the moon if it were made of ribs??
by Invalid User on Aug 13, 2010 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Well
I don’t really like to speculate on things like “missing his girlfriend” or “mopey because the Cubs won’t extend his contract”, so I think a reasonable projection of him in 2011 is 4-5 WAR. Sure, the intangibles make this a risk, but a young talent like Kemp isn’t available without some negatives attached.
I think his point
which is valid, is that there is a wider range of possible productions from Kemp. But that’s the point of the deal. Kemp could give you anything from mediocre to superstar. Byrd is going to give you something between average Cfer to above average CFer. The Dodgers are trading the unknown in Kemp, who has personal issues with the Dodgers and vice versa, for the known in Byrd.
DEJESUS!!!
I usually don't either
But if you read the LA Times article, one of the main themes is that his head is not in the game. Even with that, I don’t dispute at all that Kemp’s 2012-2014 production is a desirable thing to have in either CF or more likely RF.
If I thought the Cubs had a serious chance to win in 2011, or if Kemp was cost-controlled for 2012, I’d pursue this. Since I don’t and he isn’t, I’m not sure it make sense for them.
It's a simple question, Doctor: would you eat the moon if it were made of ribs??
by Invalid User on Aug 13, 2010 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions
You have to do this deal
Kemp is a potential superstar. Byrd is a nice player. We are talking about a CF that was a 3-win player in his age 24 season and a 5 win player in his age 25 season. He has slumped this year, but the potential is still there. I am not sure which arm it would take, but I think you have to do it.
The one question
is whether the Kemp attitude issues are real or not. You’d need inside info on that. Of course since Hendry thought Bradley was changed, I’m not sure I’d want him making that decision.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
Matt Kemp is 26 years old, elite, and under team control for 2 more years
The idea that we could get him for a 33 year old center fielder signed to a market value deal plus a prospect is beyond far-fetched.
Think about what Texiera fetched in trade as a starting point. He too was young, elite at his position, and under team control for >1 season.
Intangibles
On the surface I agree with you. My first thought when I saw the post was that it was pure folly. But, he is having a terrible season (0.6 WAR), and has butted heads with the Dodgers. Ned Colleti is not in my opinion a sharp GM, so I could see him comparing their seasons this year and the fact that both players are under contract for 2 more years and think about the deal with extra sweetener thrown in.
His year isn't as bad as it looks
He’s been unlucky (his BABIP is 40 points lower than his career norms) and his WAR is drug down by his bad UZR, which could be real and it could be noise – it’s hard to say.
I agree
I usually look at WAR in tandem w/ RC+ to see how much noise there is in the UZR. WAR makes it look like Crawford is playing on another level than his previous years, but really his UZR is just outrageous right now (36.6 UZR/150).
Like I said before, my initial reaction was the same as yours, and I was going to post a comment making fun of the trade idea. But, Byrd might have a little more value than you are giving him credit for here.
But, Byrd might have a little more value than you are giving him credit for here.
I would be more inclined to agree with that if he hadn’t just signed a deal in free agency. I believe he’s undervalued, and always have, but I’m not convinced that this season will have changed his perceived value among other teams. For whatever reason, he suffers from Mike Cameron disease – year after year of excellent play in CF without really ever getting noticed or appreciated within the sport.
Granted he’s having a career year if you look at WAR – but that’s largely propped up by 1) his positional adjustment (this is his first season since 2003 starting every game in CF) and 2) an unusual spike in his UZR/150 to go along with that.
Hitting-wise he’s having a very good year, but not all that out of his career norms.
Good point
If nobody wanted to sign him before 2010 for more than $5 million/year without giving anything up, why would a season that isn’t that far out of line w/ his recent history lead a team to give up a valuable property like Matt Kemp?
I would argue that playing in Chicago and playing the All-Star game have increased his visibility significantly, but in the end you are probably right. On the off-chance that Ned Colletti is brain-dead, it is probably not worth discussing a Byrd-Kemp deal.
His defense has been Terrible the last years. In fact for a 26 year old “elite” player his defense should be improving not declining.
by LouPiniellaIsRetiring on Aug 13, 2010 1:03 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Tell that to Carl Crawford
Crawford:
2005 12.7
2006 10.2
2007 -2.5
2008 15.8
2009 17.5
2010 19.1
Kemp is probably nowhere close to as bad defensively as his defensive metrics indicate. Sometimes outliers happen.
UZR is a really unstable stat
I wouldn’t rush to judgment based on a single-season decline.
Even if he has to move to a corner outfield spot he’s still a phenomenal player having a single down year.
He's not elite this year
and the organization and fan base have soured on him supposedly.
DEJESUS!!!
The Dodgers souring on him doesn't really lower his trade value
All that means it that now there are 29 teams in baseball that would want Kemp, instead of 30.
Sure
Would the Dodgers rather have Marlon Byrd or Curtis Granderson? Don’t underestimate the Dodgers being cheap and/or stupid. Not likely, but not totally out of the question. This is after all the team that traded Santana for Blake so they didn’t have to pay Blake’s contract.
If you're going to bring in Granderson
…then you can’t ignore the fact that Granderson, a worse player than Kemp, got more back in trade than you guys are suggesting Kemp would get here.
Different situation
Granderson has always been considered a great “clubhouse guy.” Kemp would only be available because the Dodgers think Kemp is a cancer. Also, any deal would be relying on the Dodgers being short-sighted/stupid. Sure, probably unrealistic and I would put about 5:1 odds on Kemp even being traded period, but I don’t think this is out of the realm of possibilities.
So just to make sure we're clear here
This is dependent on:
1) All the teams in competition for Kemp vastly overvaluing team chemistry except for the Cubs, who will give up a “good clubhouse guy” for a “cancer”
2) Ned Colletti being incompetent at his job
and
3) Only the Cubs knowing Ned Colletti’s phone number
I don’t think this is out of the realm of possibilities.
Yeah, that’s where we differ.
While I think it’s 100% possible that Kemp could become available, and that the Cubs could trade for him, I haven’t seen anything in this thread that’s even remotely realistic. It would take Colvin / Jackson + Cashner / the other Jackson + another solid prospect or arm.
I don't think the Dodgers would want prospects
Aren’t they still in win-now mode? Byrd has a lot of surplus value left in his contract if you think that he can come close to repeating this year. I think you are ignoring the fact that Kemp is only a bargain for two more years (the exact same amount as Byrd). It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Kemp and Byrd close to equivalent WAR over the rest of their respective contracts.
Look, whenever you talk about trades in order to come up with one that is favorable to the Cubs, you have to assume the other team makes a mistake. Generally I think it is a waste of time. Kemp is out of favor, you think Byrd for Kemp + prospect is laughable. I am not so sure. Could another team trump this offer? Of course.
The Dodgers are in a "win now, pay later" mode due to the divorce
Not sure if it makes trade ideas possible, but it puts a twist in team motivation.
Kemp is certainly worth looking to get
The skills are there and he will probably get better.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Aug 14, 2010 9:23 AM CDT up reply actions
I can see some parallels to the Alex Gonzalez/Yunel Escobar deal.
Talented player who has fallen out of favor with his current team but would probably clean up his act and play to potential in a new situation. With all the drama and whatnot the Dodgers have to deal with, I could see them wanting a good citizen/effort guy like Marlon Byrd to kind of settle things down and get rid of distractions. So, actually I think a Byrd + Casher for Kemp deal is not all that unrealistic, and, as much as I love Byrd, that would be a fantastic deal for the Cubs. Remember, Ned Colletti once traded Carlos Santana for Casey Blake, so there is precedent for this sort of deal. It might be a long shot but I’d sure like to see Hendry try.
That's a decent comparison
If you had said to me that the Braves were going to make that trade I would have laughed at you. But, they did. I should note that Santana was not a top prospect when he was traded for Blake, although your point about Colleti not being a great GM is valid.
Interestingly the Dodgers got pretty good value out of the Santana trade.
Blake has been excellent for them. So it’s not unrealistic to that that they might want to try the same thing again.
Pretty damn close to excellent
WAR since acquired by the Dodgers:
2008 1.0
2009 6.1
2010 1.6
Total: 8.7
Santana will probably get more than 8.7 WAR while under team control in CLE, but Blake has well outperformed expectations in LA.
Are you kidding?
Casey Blake’s a nice player but Carlos Santana is the face ofvthe Indians’ franchise.Think how good Santana would look overvthe terrible Russell Martin.
by LouPiniellaIsRetiring on Aug 13, 2010 1:16 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
This.
"Get up or GET OUT THE WAY!"
~Stacy King
by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 13, 2010 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Santana for Blake
That trade was a prospect for vet bat in a playoff race. Kemp for Byrd would be an entirely different type of deal. I suspect some team will offer the Dodgers something more enticing.
Starting to wonder if Kemp had a fling with Mrs. McCourt…
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Aug 13, 2010 11:39 PM CDT up reply actions
When?
the dodgers are 9.5 back in the west and 6.5 back in the wild card so trading kemp for an upgrade in CF this year doesn’t make much sense. on the filp, depending on what happens in 2012 kemp would either be due a huge raise in 2012 (big 2011) or become a nontender candidate (unlikely, but possible with a bad year). i like kemp’s upside but i’d just as soon hold onto byrd (and prospects) and let him keep brett jackson’s spot warm for at least another half season.
wasnt there a Matt Kemp
a couple years ago that was an infielder with issues?
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
You're thinking of Matt Bush.
Who has spent this year, at age 24, trying to reinvent himself as a pitcher in the Rays organization.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Not a chance in Hell would I trade for Matt Kemp
He’s evolved into a head case, and the criticisms about him re: fundamentals are dead on. He’s decided not to listen to anyone, whether it is Joe Torre, Bob Schaefer, Larry Bowa, Torii Hunter, or even his own damn family. He truly thinks his crap doesn’t stink, and he’s become a distraction on the Dodgers. The Cubs do not want or need that.
How do I know these things? I know his family. Long story, but his uncle used to work with my wife. His uncle, who isn’t even 40 yet, and is rather accomplished in his own field, prevailed upon Hunter to spend time with Kemp, which he did over the All Star Break. Hunter tried to impress upon him how to act like a responsible big leaguer and basically how to not end up like Roy Hobbs. Didn’t work, and Hunter gave it a large effort. If anything, Kemp got worse in the Dodger clubhouse. Colletti tried to trade him before the deadline, but word is apparently out and no team is willing to do an even trade. Teams will take him, but for no where near his perceived value. Think offering a bad contract and a minor leaguer for him. So far, those are the only offers the Dodgers have gotten.
But it’s a sucker’s bet. For the foreseeable future, he’s likely to be a world class prima donna. At least so says the people who know him.
"When they signed Fukudome, I knew they were trying to get me fired". - Ron Santo, January, 2008
misleading title
Kemp wanting a trade is different than his agent suggesting it may be best
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 14, 2010 11:03 AM CDT reply actions
Yes
I’m sure Kemp is happy as a clam in LA and his agent just came up with this crazy idea on his own.
DEJESUS!!!
not saying he's happy as a clam
but the agent saying “I’m almost to the point of thinking this isn’t going to work” isn’t Kemp wanting a trade, it isn’t even Kemp “almost” wanting a trade
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 14, 2010 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions
He does want out
It’s Kemp’s chickenshit way of getting it out there- let Dave Stewart take the heat. I’d rather have Dave Stewart than Kemp.
"When they signed Fukudome, I knew they were trying to get me fired". - Ron Santo, January, 2008
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