Payroll in 2011: Is contending possible?

oh my god. History will repeat itself if that’s what we do. That’s the kind of thinking that got us into this mess. By backloading a bunch of 30 year old players deals to contend for 2 years. why would you want to do this?? This helps us next year but not down the road. If we do this we’re essentially going to be a team like we’re right now.

I am not sure I can advocate a strategy of throwing huge contracts at guys like Dunn who are not quite superstars, but are the best available player at a position of desperation. This line of thinking is what got the Cubs hamstrung with the massive budget they have now.

I see two additional flaws in your logic: Lee isn’t going to want to come to Chicago. He is going to want to go to a contender AND he is going to want a no trade guarantee. If your plan fails, or if Lee fizzles, the Cubs are stuck with yet another massive contract. Second – what can the Cubs give up for Grienke? They aren’t going to get him for free.

This isn’t popular with the “win now, we deserve it” crowd, but I would like to see the Cubs play the youth, take their lumps and build from within. As to whether or not the team can contend? That depends upon the guys on the field.

aren’t going to outbid the Yankees for Cliff Lee and I don’t know that I want them too. I’d rather play the young guys and spend in 2012 getting Gonzalez or Fielder. We should let the young guys battle it out for the two open rotation spots out of ST and see who does best. If Cashner doesn’t make the rotation, then I don’t want him in the bullpen. I’m not ready to give up on him being a starter. I’d send him down to AAA. I’d rather see guys like Brett Jackson, Jeff Samardzija, and whoever wins the 5th spot( Archer, Jackson, Cashner, Carpenter). I just don’t think it’s wise to spend big next offseason. We need to develop from the inside.

Even if some disagree with the strategy you suggest. These are the kinds of discussions that should be interesting on BCB.

As I imply in my post above, I think this idea is something we should at least explore, so long as that exploration is responsible.

I would not go to a 4th year on Dunn because, while I think many here undervalue him, he has “old” baseball skills and at some point will likely regress quickly. So if I’m offering him a 4th year, it has to be a strict club option.

I love the idea of acquiring Cliff Lee. I think many here are completely undervaluing him. In particular, he does something that would immediately improve a Cubs’ sore spot. In addition to being a damn fine pitcher, he goes deep almost EVERY game. That has a domino effect of improving the bullpen by basically keeping them off the field once every 5 days.

IMO, “aces” are also undervalued in general. Quality SP depth is really important, but I look at it another way. If you have an “ace” who can pitch to the point that the club wins 2/3 of his starts (for ease of math, let’s call that 22-10 in 32 starts), and the club goes exactly .500 in the other games (doesn’t seem that challenging for most decent, i.e. non-Cub teams, right?)… that gets you to 87 wins. In other words, fringe contention.

So I would go hard after Cliff Lee, but I would try and sell him on a 5-year contract, even if it costs more per year (similar to what the OP suggests)… and then simply find a way to make other money go away.

One last thing… you have Sori @ $19M. Cot’s shows him @ $18M annually from 2010-2014. So that is an extra $1M to play with.

the main being Adam Dunn. Players of his skill set (huge, slow homer hitters) do not age very well, and I could give numerous examples. Dunn turns 31 in November. While he certainly wants a 4 year contract, I don’t think anybody will give him more than 2 years. That is why he hasn’t re-signed with Washington. Dunn was FA after 2008 at age 29, and he could only get a 2 year deal then. If I am correct about no 4 year offers, I am all for the Cubs showing Dunn the money for 2 years.

I also see Lilly as a more realistic option than CLee. Not being sentimental-Lilly is much more affordable.

Thank you for not mentioning Baker, Hoffpaur or Nady in the same sentence as 2011.

Contending in 2011 is definitely possible. Unlikely, but possible.

Finally, this sucks that we are discussing this in August. This should be a winter discussion, and we should be discussing the current pennant race, but such is life when you are 23 games under .500:(

Though I don’t agree. What we need to do is play the waiting game. No matter what its gonna be 1-2 more seasons before we see if Colvin and Castro are legit Big Leaguers. Its also gonna be 1-2 more seasons before we shed more bad contracts.

 Our bullpen is awful, we need 1-3 more starters. We need a 1st baseman. We have a 3rd baseman who is near toast. We have minor leaguers like the Jackson that are still a bit off.

 Season ticket sales are just gonna have to be bad and were just gonna have to suffer it out. It’s time to build a brick foundation. We have patched holes long enough.

Cliff Lee is simply not realistic given our payroll situation. We can improve our rotation more cheaply than simply going after Cliff Lee. We do, however, need power in the lineup. Adam Dunn provides that and we conveniently have an opening at first base. I believe Jim Hendry is trying to find a way to get someone to take Fukudome’s contract to give the team some financial flexibility in the offseason.

As far as free agency goes for pitchers, that’s anyone’s guess. The crown jewel of the free agent market will be Cliff Lee. He probably will be in Yankee pinstripes next year. Other than Lee, the other big name pitchers on the free agent market will be Andy Pettitte (actually was having a good season before his injury) and Ted Lilly. That isn’t exactly an encouraging free agent market all things being considered.

Pettitte has been signing one-year deals with the Yankees since he returned to the Yankees following the 2006 season. Given the year he’s had, he might be able to get more money out of Cashman and tie up some of Yankee payroll. Lilly is an interesting possibility if we could get him to return, but I’m convinced we should look for cheaper alternatives to fix the rotation while we try to trust what’s in our system. Spending money isn’t going to win games for you unless you spend it wisely. I’m sure the Cubs will try to get in on the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, but it will mostly be for show.

for 2010 was $133mil, with some money coming off the books for 2011….Lee, and possible trades, the belief by some in the organization is that Ricketts will want to keep the payroll at around $124mil. Don’t expect a lot of action this off season. If Colvin isn’t worked out at first, expect Nady at 1B. Expect to see many of the same faces, including Ramirez and Z. Hate to say it but the Cubs are screwed at least until the end of 2012.

will get a big chance to be a starter next season with him being out of options.

now positive on the idea of having Dunn for next year I think many fans are going to be disappointed. The Cubs have shown, this year, that their only interest is in moving contracts and shedding salary. I think going forward that the Cubs payroll will probably flutter between $100 and $125 million depending on prospects.

Lee isnt going to be a Cub anytime soon and the same is with Dunn. Even if McNutt, Archer and the rest of the minor league pitchers have a ceiling of #2 it would be nice to have 2 #2’s 2 #3’s and a Wells type in the rotation, that would be a rotation that on any given day can give you an Ace type start and we wouldnt need to rely on one guy being the stop gap.

Also looking forward I wouldnt mind seeing a team made up of 5-6 guys who can hit 17-27 home runs a year and not have a true blue 40+ homer guy and a 30+ homer guy. This way if one guy goes down to injury the rest of the team wont feel that the team is done or that they have to single handedly carry the team (see 2009). This is the way the Twins and Rays do it – fill the team with a bunch of above average guys and hope that one has a career year even if a couple guys wont be average that year.

…that there’s a good chance the Cubs will have a $140+ million dollar payroll and we’re wondering if, maybe, they’ll even contend.

Yikes.

The 2011 commitments are certainly real and given the amount of debt the Ricketts family has to pay off ($175M is due by 2013), so is the salary budget.

That said, I do see some issues with your roster.
1) There is some real back loading in the deals you propose for Dunn and Lee. Aside from the question of whether they would accept that structure, that limits the team’s financial flexiblity in 2012 and beyond. Just like now, the salary commitments will limit the ability to refresh the roster as players like Soriano run out of gas but are still owed a lot of money.
2) The roster is heavily dependent on young players producing and any regression will pretty much kill the idea of contending. Including DeWitt, there are 10 players making $500K or less, and many of them do not have a full MLB season under their belts. I understand that is necessary to stay under the payroll constraint, but there is a risk there.
3) There is a real exposure to older players who may experience real age-related regression or have recently been underperformers. Not only do Dunn and Lee have to continue to play well, so do Soriano, Ramirez, and Z. That has been a pretty chancy proposition.

I think your proposal may well be as good as it gets for building a 2011 contender. The risks indicate that contending in 2011 may just not be realistically possible.

Who’s the next Andres Torres? Mark DeRosa? Let’s look for pitchers like Brett Meyers who can offer a year or more of solid production for $3-4 million. Then we can continue to give playing time to guys in our system who deserve a shot.

The Xavier Nady deal is a good example of the Cubs going after lightning in a bottle. Too bad they chose someone like Nady instead of Coco Crisp or Mike Cameron.

We really don’t have much to lose by looking for guys that we can sign for 1-2 year deals.

Instead of going after Lee, we offered two year deals to both Ted Lilly AND Tim Hudson with a 3rd year option?

But to contend in the National League….perhaps throwing bazillions of dollars at players isn’t the answer anymore.

Doesn’t it appear that most of the recent successful franchises (the Phillies are the exception) over the past few years do not have mammoth payrolls?

The biggest payroll teams — Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Giants have only had minor successes. (I guess we could throw the Brewers, possibly the Astros into this mix.)

The AL, with the Yankees — calls for a different strategy. (The Rays are the exception) That’s an arms race in that league. There’s little hope if you don’t spend. Even if you throw out cash, you could be the 2010 Mariners/Angels, two teams that have crashed and burned.

Just a quick thought. Major market teams, such as the Cubs need to spend. However, a better blend of homegrown players and specific FA’s, sounds like a better strategy in today’s NL.

I think the Cubs should finally get serious about a rebuild. Not a reload. Rebuild. I think Adam Dunn would be a better fit in the American League because he’s a DH waiting to happen. I’d rather the Cubs try Colvin at first or pursue Adam LaRoche because LaRoche is a better defensive first baseman than Dunn. Dunn would look great on the Red Sox IMHO and he could replace Big Papi as DH.

If Ryne Sandberg gets the manager job, I expect that he and his coaches will make defense a priority. Defense is something the Cubs have lacked in the past couple of seasons. The Cubs could move DeWitt to third base and platoon him with Josh Vitters if Aramis gets moved. Then they could pursue a second baseman via free agency like Orlando Hudson who is excellent defensively or pick someone from the minor leagues.