More reason to think Dunn will be a Cub
Interesting stuff. Sounds like Colvin won't be getting time at first, after all. And it sounds like Dunn is very high on becoming a Cub.
almost 2 years ago
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Dunn will be expensive, unless he takes less $ to become a Cub.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Considering that Kila from KC doesn't appear to be an option ...
whom would you suggest, Al?
I "Dunn"o.
Seriously, I suppose you could still try to trade some pitching to KC for Kila.
But Dunn may be the best option.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Defensively at 1B
He seems to be decent, not good, but decent.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
From the article Al posted in a FanShot, Rosenthal:
The Brewers will not have an easy time trading first baseman Prince Fielder this offseason.
Plenty of clubs need a slugger such as Fielder. But plenty of free agents will be available at first base:
* Left-handed hitters (like Prince): Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena, Adam LaRoche, Aubrey Huff, Lyle Overbay, Russell Branyan.
* Right-handed hitters: Paul Konerko, Derrek Lee, Jorge Cantu.
* Switch-hitter: Lance Berkman.
by The Deputy Mayor of Rush Street on Aug 24, 2010 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions
If the Cubs make a move for Greinke,
which I think they should, maybe they could expand the trade to include Kila. I saw him play the other day against the Sox, wasn’t very impressive.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
so clean out the
minors then?
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
Nobody.
Find a stop-gap and wait til class of 2012. It is like what the Bulls had to do to have a chance at Wade/Lebron (I know, different sport). The Cubs need to at least put themselves in the position to have the chance to land Pujols or Gonzalez after 2011, but will most likely settle for Fielder. I personally prefer Fielder to Dunn.
Pick up Aubry Huff for next season.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Huff is having a really good year.
He might be just as expensive as Dunn.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Even Aramis says in
the article it will take a lot of money to get Dunn. He doesn’t know if the club will spend that kind of money.
A lovely story:
One day, long, long ago, there lived a woman who didn't whine, nag or bitch. That would be me....
But that was a long time ago and it was just that one day.
The end
Aramis isn't privy to the Cubs' budget.
So his statement doesn’t mean much.
Neither he or I said he did know.
He said he*doesn’t* know if the club will spend that kind of money. None of us know what he is privy to.
A lovely story:
One day, long, long ago, there lived a woman who didn't whine, nag or bitch. That would be me....
But that was a long time ago and it was just that one day.
The end
You think Hendry and Aramis spend time before games going over the books?
I’m just saying Aramis making comments about the team’s budget for FA strategy is next to meaningless, Sue.
But of course
I bet Aramis has the honor of putting the ledger book back in the safe behind the picture in Hendry’s office! Salvation lies within.
"Ask Dad. He'll know. And on the off chance he doesn't, he'll make something up"
I'm going to ask you to do
the same for me that you asked circuit to do to your comments. I never said Aramis knew anything. It was his opinion and if it was meaningless to you well goody. Just stop commenting on my posts.
A lovely story:
One day, long, long ago, there lived a woman who didn't whine, nag or bitch. That would be me....
But that was a long time ago and it was just that one day.
The end
So Aramis is in the same boat as the rest of us?
That says a lot about a lot of posts here.
"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas
by RiskyBusiness on Aug 24, 2010 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd think
something around 3/36 would be fair to both sides.
Adding Dunn and trading for Greinke , while dropping some of Fukudome’s contract, would be a pretty successful start to the off-season. Streghtening the bullpen would finish things off and make the Cubs a reasonable contender for the Central, without hurting too much of the Cubs long-term chances for success.
I’d rather trade for Gonzalez, to be sure, but Dunn would be a heck of a consolation prize. I’d rather have Dunn than Fielder, I don’t think Pujols will leave St Louis, and it’s looking more and more like San Diego will make A-Gon a Padre for life (as they should).
DEJESUS!!!
i could handle 3/36
i’m scared of 4/60, 5/75
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
we have a GM
who dabbles in shocking contracts
we gave kosuke 4/48 and he was entering his age 31 season with no ml track record
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions
However, if we hadn't signed him, the Sox or somebody else would've signed him for more.
Todd Hollandsworth; "So, Starlin, do you like hitting in the two-hole?"
Starlin Castro; "Yeah, I hit second."
The Face of the Chicago Cubs.
by Ryno Runner on Aug 24, 2010 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions
i dont get this line of thinking....
the asset’s production does not change based on how much you pay it or how much someone else is willing to pay for it
Thus you should set your price for where the asset is valuable and then walk away at any price that the asset is no longer valuable. Just because someone else is willing to make a mistake means we should
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions
that should finish with a question mark
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions
I understand what you mean...
…however, scouts/players/GM’s/yadda yadda galore were saying how good he was going to be and how well his skills would transfer over to MLB. Hendry trusted his scouts and made the offer, which Kosuke accepted. The money he was offered was acceptable for the production the Cubs, and everybody else was expecting.
Todd Hollandsworth; "So, Starlin, do you like hitting in the two-hole?"
Starlin Castro; "Yeah, I hit second."
The Face of the Chicago Cubs.
by Ryno Runner on Aug 24, 2010 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions
i think most were comfortable with the money
uncomfortable with the years
this is a common mistake the Cubs brass has made in the past. They’re willing to “trump” other clubs offers by going an extra year
its why we’re often left trying to dispose of a contract with 1-2 yrs left that no one wants
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions
I'll give you that.
But at the time, it still was considered a good signing.
Todd Hollandsworth; "So, Starlin, do you like hitting in the two-hole?"
Starlin Castro; "Yeah, I hit second."
The Face of the Chicago Cubs.
by Ryno Runner on Aug 24, 2010 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
for some
but not all, i was disappointed in the 4th year
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2007/12/11/23212/619#2057433
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions
at the time
it was reported that fukudome didn’t accept the largest offer and that the cubs weren’t the only team that offered four years. he obviously hasn’t been the player a lot of teams, including the cubs, thought he would be. but if they hedged their offer and got “stuck” with him anyway, that should alleviate some of the blame for that signing, but not all of it. here’s what hendry said at the time:
“We think we have the whole package,” Hendry said. "We feel we have a high-average player, a high-on-base-percentage player. He certainly has enough power, and he can hit the ball out of the ballpark. He’s a Gold Glove-caliber defender with a tremendous arm in right field, and he can steal bases. All the things we felt or we hear about on a regular basis that we might have lacked — on-base percentage, more speed, better defense in the outfield — he fits the bill for all of us. We’re not worried about the transition.
yikes
by circuitclout on Aug 24, 2010 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Hindsight, again.
Every single scout reported exactly the same thing. At least two teams were ready to pay Fukudome more money than the Cubs were.
In 2010 the signing doesn’t look good. In December 2007, the overwhelming majority of fans, pundits and baseball people thought the Cubs got a good deal.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
which makes you wonder what baseball scouts actually do
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions
exactly
they should be able to see clearly and accurately into the future like everyone else
by circuitclout on Aug 24, 2010 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions
I like you, you're like me.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions
do you like soup?
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions
too bad, we could have been friends.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions
we'll have to agree to disagree
or so i’ve been told…
by circuitclout on Aug 24, 2010 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions
DID SOMEBODY SAY...
SOUP???
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
The stolen base part is pretty amazing
Did anyone put a stopwatch on him? Or measure how far “out of the park” meant? Based on how he performed almost immediately in MLB, those scouts should have their eyes checked.
Like everyone else on here
You should keep your day job
as i expect Hill to take a step forward this year (he was already one of the 15 best starters in the NL last year) and Lilly to take a slight step back (his early season control was a bit atypical of Ted)
"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas
by RiskyBusiness on Aug 24, 2010 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions
anyone else
getting a weird security message if they try to open DCF’s link above? i wanna see what, if anything, i said but it keeps warning me of bad things….
by circuitclout on Aug 24, 2010 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions
No, that link is fine
"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas
by RiskyBusiness on Aug 24, 2010 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions
never said i was perfect
but i would guess if you go back and look at my history (and i’m more than willing to be accountable on this), i’ll be more right than wrong
here were some of my other comments:
The other news of course is this team is committed to Zambrano, Lilly, DLee, Aramis, Soriano, Fukudome with 10+ Million dollar contracts over the next 3 years
This core is largely just on the wrong end of 30, so it will be a race to win before their decline becomes too significant.
As currently constructed are the Cubs good enough to win a title with this core and assuming little financial flexibility to make more moves?
That’s the question. I think we’re still a #1 starter short of it, so Bedard might be the appropriate target, but if he comes at the cost of Rich Hill then I think we’re still 1 pitcher short of being there
take out that last sentence in identifying who the #1 would be and I was pretty spot on. As with anyone trying to prognosticate I won’t be right all the time, but judge my track record and i’ll bet you find a whole lot more on the right side of the ledger than the wrong side
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions
the last sentence
is the only part of that clip where you prognosticate anything.
by circuitclout on Aug 24, 2010 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions
i think saying
its a race to win before the decline becomes steep is a prognostication
perhaps you think its broad, but at that point in a number of other posts i noted it was a 3 year window
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions
it was a valid point
but predicting that the cubs players would get older and more expensive over time isn’t exactly going to get you a job as a soothsayer.
by circuitclout on Aug 24, 2010 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions
thats fair
i make a lot of projections on players, teams, etc so there will certainly be a lot to choose from in times that i make good calls and bad calls
my overriding point is that i think if riskybusiness is interested in judging me you’ll find more good than bad over the long haul
and you’ll also find lots of opportunities to criticize me for being wrong because i put myself out there a lot, both with the Cubs (and with fantasy sports where i write and project for a partial living)
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions
I probably should have stated this to begin with
If you wanted Fukudome, but were disappointed about the 4th year, you should not have wanted 3 years. You should have wanted zero years. I think 4 years was the minimum that Fukudome was signing for in the fall of 2007. I know he turned down the white sox, who offered 4/50, to be the Cubs first Japanese postion player. And I remember that the Dodgers and SD were in the mix as well.
"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas
by RiskyBusiness on Aug 24, 2010 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions
then i guess i didnt want him
i dont know what to say, but years and price matter when considering a potential acquisition
I don’t want Adam Dunn at 5, but i can handle him at 2. if you say that means i dont want him because it will cost 5 to get him, then i suppose you’re accurate and you can put me in the group that didn’t think fukudome made sense
the truth is i thought he made sense at 3/30, but not 4/48, so if i was GM i wouldn’t have gone to that point to get him
i’ve stated before in this thread i believe you draw a line on the value you place on a guy and don’t go significantly beyond it
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 5:58 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree
I would like to see more discipline in the Cubs free agent signings. time for dinner.
"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas
by RiskyBusiness on Aug 24, 2010 6:23 PM CDT up reply actions
As long as it's not..
…. dinner between Jim Hendry and a free agent. The free agent always seems to get more money after those.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Maybe
Jim has a few too many cocktails at those dinners.
DEJESUS!!!
And brings a contract in his jacket
"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas
by RiskyBusiness on Aug 24, 2010 10:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Well you still weren't really right
Fukudome would still have been a bad signing at 3/30. He ended up being an atrocious signing at 4/48.
3/30
according to Fangraphs he produced $24.7 million worth of value so far in 2 2/3 years, pretty close to fair value
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3263&position=OF#value
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 25, 2010 8:47 AM CDT up reply actions
I think if a player is truly key to your success
then you should be willing to overpay. For example, the Cubs weren’t willing to pay a little more than they wanted for Rafael Furcal. That, in hindsight, was very costly, as it forced the Cubs to pay bad money to Neifi and send solid prospects for Pierre. The ended up chasing that one mised move for years.
I agree that generally you need to decide what you think a player is worth and stick to it, but if a player is a real key to your future you might have to throw that number out the window.
DEJESUS!!!
I agree
A team using DCF’s strategy would likely whiff on FAs most of the time as there is usually at least one team that is desperate for an elite (or near elite) free agent that they will pay more than they would in a vacuum.
In this off-season, the Cubs should probably use discipline because they aren’t one major piece away from WS contention. However, that isn’t always the case.
More than that....
….failing to sign Furcal cost us a season of Derrek Lee in his absolute prime.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
how was it costly?
for the three years in question, 2006-2008, furcal had one good year (2006) at the plate, one bad year (2007) and missed most of 2008 with an injury, though he was very good in limited action that year. UZR/150 says he wasn’t all that great defensively during that time (-8.1 in 2006, -0.5, -11.2).
all told, furcal got paid $39 million on that contract and provided 7.7 WAR. from 2006-2008, ryan theriot gave the cubs 6.2 WAR while earning close to the league minimum.
by circuitclout on Aug 25, 2010 8:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Because he wound up standing in the way of D. Lee in May 2006
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
a player's worth to a team
can go beyond his production on the field
in the situation you mention if a player was that key to a team, than yes you’d be willing to “overpay” his production
but that doesn’t mean you go beyond the set value YOU set for what he’s worth to your team
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 25, 2010 8:49 AM CDT up reply actions
that all depends
on whether your assessment of a player’s value is realistic in the first place.
by circuitclout on Aug 25, 2010 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions
agreed
it’s not an exact science. i certainly thought rich hill was going to have a much longer/better career and though i’d have taken bedard at the time i was wary of trading hill to get him.
i just thought it was odd that you cited from a post with a lot of bad calls in it (in hindsight, of course) as an example of how you get it right most of the time.
by circuitclout on Aug 24, 2010 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions
wrong side of 30
That is an old baseball addage.
Probably the best reason to not sign Adam Dunn. Save the money and put it in player development.
"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas
by RiskyBusiness on Aug 24, 2010 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't doubt that it's possible, it would still be shocking
My worst fear was 5/55. 5/75 would tell me this team still has absolutely no clue how to build a winning organization.
little shocks me after the 2006 offseason
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions
everything shocks me when I shuffle across the carpet in my socks
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
5/75 sounds like a jail term
and it would be.
"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas
by RiskyBusiness on Aug 24, 2010 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions
it would fit right in then!
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions
I sit in the right field corner, terrace reserve
I will need for every game he plays. If he gets out in front of one, he could reach my seats with a foul ball.
"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas
by RiskyBusiness on Aug 24, 2010 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm with you on this.
If we could get him for $3/36, that would be solid. I’m fearful he’ll command more.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Fukudome was 4/48
and while the market has changed dramatically, I’m not sure that Dunn would command less than Fukudome did.
"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas
by RiskyBusiness on Aug 24, 2010 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
I think the economy ensures he'll get less than 4/48.
I don’t want 4/anything. Unless we get the DH in the NL, I do not want to see Dunn in a Cubs uniform past 2013. I’d rather give him 3/42 than 4/48.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
And Milton was 3/30...
…Dunn is a better player, but I think 3 years is the way to go with Dunn. He’ll get more $ than MB though. If Dunn wants more years, he can sign elsewhere.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
neck tattoos....they scare us.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Plus Fielder has that Speedo endorsement, so, he'd be missing the Cubs Convention every year to do his calendar shoot.
Joe Girardi...2011 Chicago Cubs Manager...Book it!!
Holy crap that's a
vision I can’t get out of my head. :(
A lovely story:
One day, long, long ago, there lived a woman who didn't whine, nag or bitch. That would be me....
But that was a long time ago and it was just that one day.
The end
What I mean is I'd rather have
Dunn at 3/36 than Fielder at a Texiera contract. I have serious concerns about Fielder’s ability to hold up long-term, particularly in the NL.
DEJESUS!!!
I wrote the same thing several months ago
I agree. The question is can Dunn actually be had at 3/36? If Fielder is competing against AGonz and Pujols on the open market he might not be able to get Teixeira money.
The other thing to consider is the idea that a bird in hand beats two in the bush. If Dunn can be had this off-season for a reasonable price, it seems foolish to not pull the trigger in hopes that Fielder can be acquired next year given the uncertainty involved in that proposition.
How expensive do you think he will be?
He can’t play defense worth his salt, and refuses to go to the AL.
That means there’s really only a handful of teams that can even take him (most of the big-spending NL teams are set at first base).
The last time he was a free agent, no one really wanted him and he settled for a short-term deal with a terrible team. Nothing has really changed since then.
I’m not saying I want Dunn necessarily, I just don’t think he’ll be that expensive.
If that's the case...
… then Hendry needs to not bid against himself, as he has done in the past.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Or take him out to dinner....
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Why the infatuation with Dunn?
Has everyone forgotten that Dunn is a terrible first baseman? Really, the guy has no range, is a bad fielder, and will not be the difference maker on the 2011 Cubs.
Just because the Cubs have a vacancy at 1b does not mean they should sink their money into a long term contract for a guy on the wrong side of 30. They have been down this road before and are reaping what was sown then.
The Cubs don’t need and shouldn’t want Dunn. This rebuilding is going to take some time, but if they don’t do it the right way, we are going to be looking back in a year or so wondering what happened, bitching about why the Cubs aren’t contending again, and ranting about the ludicrous signing of Adam Dunn to a 3, 4, or 5 year deal.
I think I speak for everyone here when I say, "Wait, what the hell are you talking about?"
by Ross on Aug 24, 2010 11:42 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
3 years is "long term"? You seem to be making more out of this than is necessary.
Nobody wants Dunn signed for more than 3 years, and nobody is wanting him for his defense.
Adam Dunn Career OBP .381
Tony Gwynn Career OBP .388
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions
there are reasons for concern
most notably:
Adam Dunn 2010 OBP: .354
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions
yes, he's fallen off a bit with BB this year....
which should give the Cubs some leverage when they negotiate his contract, no?
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
i'm not sure the cubs understand leverage
they gave jason marquis 3 yrs and 21 million dollars after posting a 6.02 ERA in 190+ innings with the Cardinals
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions
that's besides the point
regarding leverage and contract negotiation
Marquis had no suitors that offseason and the Cubs guaranteed him 21 million and 3 yrs (and if you remember needed to ship his salary off to make room for other players in his final year)
turned out to be a good decision, but could’ve been a much less expensive one
in addition you’re numbers are misleading because 17.1 million of that production was with the Rockies
The Cubs paid Marquis 12 million and took on an additional 4 million of vizcaino for 15.1 million produced by marquis and 0 produced by Vizacaino
that was a net loss of 0.9 million over 3 years
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Perhaps Hendry saw a what he thought was a market inefficiency
…in a player whose stats made him look worse than he was.
Given the way the market was trending at that time, he may have been trying to lock up a pitcher he saw as undervalued.
And if they had given him a 1-year deal, he probably would have cost much more for the next 2.
Though if Hendry did see a market inefficiency...
wouldn’t that imply that the market wasn’t seeing the same thing? I.e. he could pay less without fear of competition…
(I’m not arguing about the wisdom of getting Marquis; I’m just saying that a market inefficiency implies that you can get value without competition driving up a cost. Hendry seems like he sometimes bids against himself)
by CubsWin!Oregon on Aug 24, 2010 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions
then use team options
and again… a lesser salary
much better ways to exploit market inefficiencies than committing guaranteed years and serious money
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions
How do you know all this?
I question whether Marquis had no other suitors. He had three consecutive years of 200+ IP. Granted his last year was terrible, but he had proven to be a competent back of the rotation starter in the past.
Among Hendry’s bad deals, I consider signing Marquis to a 3-year deal to be pretty low on the list. That he later made a dumb trade to get rid of some of that money is irrelevant in my book.
basing it off of information flow
that offseason was a wild one and information flow was pretty good for all the other FA’s signed about who was interested in who. The only team ever tied to Marquis was the Cubs, no one else.
Is it some speculation? Sure.
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree that one of Hendry's biggest flaws...
… has been bidding against himself for free agents. He did it with Marquis and Bradley, as well as Miles and Grabow.
If he can stop doing this, the payroll problems will soon vanish.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I don't know if they'll soon vanish, Al.
But the problem will certainly improve. There have been many instances where Hendry “won” the bidding for players who don’t appear to be worth their contracts, notably Soriano, Kosuke and Z.
I’ll give Hendry a pass on Z, because young pitching is always in demand, and Hendry probably figured Z would chill the hell down at some point. But with Soriano and Kosuke, Hendry outbid a handful of other GMs who were also willing to pay too much. I’ve said this before — and you and others disagree — but I don’t let Hendry off the hook just because other GMs were equally wrong, or more wrong, in the case of the GMs willing to pay more for Kosuke.
And I know all the qualifiers (Soriano was signed partly for PR, Kosuke made the Cubs more popular in Japan, etc.).
Anyway, all this is a roundabout way of saying that Hendry’s got more problems than occasionally bidding against himself.
True.
But if he could stop that, it would help. Bidding against himself for Bradley alone caused untold problems.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Totally agree.
I also wonder why the Cubs felt the need to give Marquis three years.
Yep
Furthermore, the other contracts mentioned above by Al weren’t so bad because of the $$ and years (Hendry bidding against himself) but were bad because the players were not properly evaluated. Even at lower $$ and years they still would not have been good signings.
And improper evaluation ...
would also lead to overpay for guys whom other teams are bidding on — like Soriano and Kosuke.
In Hendry's defense ...
he has gotten a few of them right, too.
And we wished we'd kept him too.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
if we didn't pay him so much
we could have….
marquis was shipped out to clear payroll not because of performance
which gets back to the ignoring of leverage and over-paying that Hendry did that eventually cost him
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions
3 years/42 mill with a club option for a 4th...Ok...1B is set...next!
Joe Girardi...2011 Chicago Cubs Manager...Book it!!
He's gonna want a NTC, cuz, he don't wanna go to AL.
Joe Girardi...2011 Chicago Cubs Manager...Book it!!
I don't blame him...he wants to play baseball.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions
not putting Colvin
over there tells me the Lou thing was not orchestrated and that it probably did just pop up over the past few days.
by cozmotaylor123 on Aug 24, 2010 12:06 PM CDT reply actions
As long as it isn't >3 years.
Todd Hollandsworth; "So, Starlin, do you like hitting in the two-hole?"
Starlin Castro; "Yeah, I hit second."
The Face of the Chicago Cubs.
I wouldn't bank...
…on any FA signings that would involve double digit millions per year for 2011.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
What would we lose
in terms of draft picks if he is tendered an offer?
2nd rd pick
assuming he’s offered arb
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions
The guy has never been on a over .500 team
With the exception to being traded to the Diamondbacks.
If we’re going to make an investment, how about on a guy who is a proven winner?
No I don't
I just don’t think Dunn is a worthy investment for 2011.
Oh for the love of......
are you being serious?
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Dead serious
I don’t think Dunn is a good match for the Cubs in 2011.
The Proven Winning Firstbasemen of the last 3 years.
2009
Mark Teixeira
Ryan Howard
Kendry Morales
James Loney
Justin Morneau
Kevin Youkilis
Todd Helton
Albert Pujols
2008
Ryan Howard
Carlos Pena
James Loney
Kevin Youkilis
Casey Kotchman
Derrek Lee
Paul Konerko
Prince Fielder
2007
Kevin Youkilis
Todd Helton
Ryan Garko
Conor Jackson
Derrek Lee
Ryan Howard
Casey Kotchman
(the 4 headed 1Bmen for the Yankees of Mientkiewicz, Phillips, Cairo, Phelps)
one of these guys?
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions
He's been around for a long time
A lot longer than a lot of the guys mentioned.
Whatever, I’m not getting into this debate. I’d prefer Dunn was not a Cub.
Yeah, don't get into a debate over a subject you commented on with weak logic.
And now you’ve shifted gears to argue that Dunn is “too old”?
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Age is an issue yes
But I meant, he’s played for quite a while and has no track record of being on a winning team. Not just division winner but even being above .500. I personally don’t think Adam Dunn coming to the Cubs for anything extended amount of time will help them reach a division title.
I’d love to be proven wrong though if he signs this winter.
stop...just....please....stop this silly argument.
…he’s played for quite a while and has no track record of being on a winning team.
I can’t….I mean…wow.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions
hey
Lee was a proven winner and that worked very well for the Cubs and our non-stop WS winning ways
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
Look at it this way
and then perhaps you’ll understand SWL’s consternation with the fallacy of your argument.
The best players in baseball are worth something less than around 10 wins above replacement player. If you add “Player X”, who makes his team ten wins better than a replacement player, to a bad team (say a 70 win team), the team will still be bad. Is it his fault? Absolutely not, he improved the team by 10 wins. But it’s a team game, and if the players around you are bad (as has been the case for Adam Dunn throughout his career), there is nothing you can do to turn them into a winner.
DEJESUS!!!
Ernie Banks
was never on a proven winner. Would you be willing to sign him if he was 30 right now?
DEJESUS!!!
Not if you told me he would never win a WS
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Aug 25, 2010 12:58 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, sign Lonnie Smith! He's a proven winner!
This argument never ceases to amaze me.
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2010 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions
That arguement never ceases to be stupid.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions
BY THAT LOGIC,
WE SHOULD SIGN DAVID ECKSTEIN
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
to play first base?
Ah hell, why not…OK.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree
When trying to build a championship team, it is always wise to surround yourself with as many players as possible who have never won before.
Wait, I mean I disagree.
And considering all the ABs the Cubs gave Theriot, they probably should have signed Eckstein.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Aug 25, 2010 12:58 AM CDT up reply actions
Translation
‘’[Wrigley Field’s] obviously one of my favorite parks to hit in,‘’ said Dunn, second in the National League with 31 home runs. ’’I’ve always really enjoyed playing there. The atmosphere is great there for any player. The fans are always hard on the other team, which makes it fun.’’
Dunn – “I hear the Cubs pay really, really well.”
"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas
And...
…hand out No-Trades like they were M&M’s and back-load contracts like a SOB, for those lean. depression-leaning years. Then only trade you to a team you prefer.
He would be a monster in Wrigley. And really there are few players like him in MLB. Might be a way to put fans in the seats at the very least.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Aug 25, 2010 12:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Why would we give Dunn a contract for more than a year...
knowing that Pujols/Gonzalez will be free agents the year after?
(If you’re answer is “Because Dunn won’t sign for only a year” then your answer shouldn’t be: Give Dunn a longer contract. It should be: Don’t sign Dunn.)
Pujols has said he won't come to the Cubs.
And the Cubs want to compete next year. I’m not saying that’s necessarily the right strategy, but Gonzalez won’t be available in 2011, and Dunn will.
Maybe Pujols is just posturing
Trying to get a bigger offer from the Cubs?
I'll go to my grave believing Armando Galarraga tossed the 21st perfect game in MLB history.
Pujols has said he won’t come to the Cubs.
When did he say this?
Also, for all those waiting for Adrian Gonzalez, he’s not going anywhere.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Did SD give him an extension?
I'll go to my grave believing Armando Galarraga tossed the 21st perfect game in MLB history.
He's on a good team in a weak division that looks to be on top for the next few years...
San Diego is his hometown. Yes his contract is up in the air, but you honestly think he wants to leave the situation he’s in right now to come to Chicago and participate in this vaudeville act we call a baseball organization?
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions
For the right price, yes.
I'll go to my grave believing Armando Galarraga tossed the 21st perfect game in MLB history.
the right price = assload more $ and years than what the Padres offer
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions
An assload? Is that more or less than a sh*tload?
Joe Girardi...2011 Chicago Cubs Manager...Book it!!
more...seveal shitloads can be contained inside an assload.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm pretty sure he said something ...
earlier this year when asked. He said he didn’t like the weight rooms/facilities at Wrigley.
I’ll try to find a link (I don’t think I imagined this). Anybody else remember this?
Here it is:
Sorry, I think I heard a radio report that made this sound more definite. But based on the comments, I highly doubt Pujols will be wearing blue pinstripes anytime soon:
Everyone has flipped out over Soriano's contract...
you think Ricketts will allow another 10 year contract worth even MORE than Soriano’s to be handed out?
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions
in Albert's case - and ONLY Albert's case - I hope he does
I'll go to my grave believing Armando Galarraga tossed the 21st perfect game in MLB history.
gag me
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
TWSS
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions
just like
Derrek Lee and Ted Lilly?
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 24, 2010 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Good...
it will cripple the Cardinals financally. They have stated over and over again that they won’t top 100mil in annual payroll. There farm system is in shambles. They will have so much invested in Holliday and Pujols, they won’t have the ability to make up for their weak farm system….Sound Familiar
"All I want is food and creative love" - Rusted Root
by TheRiot Police on Aug 25, 2010 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions
we won't get any of them then.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions
good freekin god
get off the crazy train that Pujols will be a Cub. the 25-30 million he will get (probably closer to 30) is not something that I want and Pujols is not going to ruin his reputation in St. Louis in an even worse way than LeBron did in Cleveland. Big Al is either a Red Bird or going to the AL where, when he is 36+, he can be a DH
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
I sure as hell dont hate him
I think he is arguably the best hitter of the generation who hasnt dropped off significantly since the end of the steroids era
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
Dunn's power has remained consistent
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 24, 2010 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions
and the same is with Pujols
a two year dip to 32 and 37 but then 40’s last year and should hit 40 this year – I was covering my ass with my statement since I hadnt actually looked at his HR totals that way…
I Love Larry - Brick are you looking at random things around the room and saying that you love them - I Love Larry
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
There's a lot of certainty in your comment..
given that none of us know. A lot can happen in two years time.
And anyway, Pujols isn’t the only FA worth looking into. My whole point is that the FA class in two years is far superior to this upcoming year. Why the hell would we waste spending $$ on a big contract for a mediocre pick-up and thus take us out of contention should any developments go in our favor in two years time? Opportunity costs matter.
There’s simply no reason to spend big money at 1B for next year; not least of all because the Cubs aren’t going to contend anyway.
by CubsWin!Oregon on Aug 25, 2010 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions
I want Adam Dunn on this team more than just about any other guy that's gonna be available.
But I think it’s futile to go after any big name players. We aren’t gonna be good in 2011, not even close. And we aren’t gonna be fantastically good in 2012, either, methinks. To spend monies on a player for those two or three years seems like a waste when it could get invited in the farm system.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Possible Counterargument
I am inclined to agree with you. But, for argument’s sake even if the Cubs don’t win a WS or even make the playoffs couldn’t Dunn pay for himself (thus not hurting farm system development) if the Cubs are near contenders during 2011 and 2012 as compared to being close to the cellar?
If people go to the park to see Dunn hit HR's...
…especially in September, even if they aren’t in contention, this seems somewhat possible.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Aug 25, 2010 1:04 AM CDT up reply actions
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