Cubs Minor League Wrap: August 26
by Josh Timmers on Aug 27, 2010 12:44 AM CDT
in Minor Leagues
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The Iowa Cubs hung on to beat the Omaha Royals, 7-6.
Jeff Samardzija improved his record in Iowa to 11-2 with a 5.2 inning start tonight. Samardzija allowed four runs (three earned) on five hits. He walked four and struck out three.
Jeff Stevens was shaky, but he collected his sixth save. He entered the game with one out in the ninth after Justin Berg had already allowed one run and had two men on. Stevens allowed an inherited run on a single and then walked the bases loaded before getting a foul out and a strikeout with the bases loaded to end the game.
DH Jason Dubois hit a grand slam in the fifth inning. It was his 13th homer on the year. Dubois was 2 for 4 with a walk. He scored twice and had the four RBI.
Third baseman Marquez Smith hit a solo home run in the first inning. It was Smith's 14th home run. Smith was 1 for 5 on the night.
Memphis also won, so Iowa retains a 1.5 game lead in the division. Iowa's magic number is now 11.
Tennessee Smokies
The Tennessee Smokies battered the Birmingham Barons, 4-3 in 11 innings.
Chris Archer had another great outing tonight, going seven innings and allowing two runs on five hits. Archer only walked two and struck out nine.
Marco Carillo blew the save in the ninth when he allowed a solo home run, but he stayed in the game and got the win. Carrillo pitched three innings and gave up four hits, including the homer. He walked one and struck out two.
Russ Canzler scored the winning run on a wild pitch in the 11th. (I refuse to call it a "Walk-off wild pitch") Canzler was 1 for 3 with a double and two walks. He had two RBI and scored that winning run.
Huntsville lost, so the Smokies lead in the division increased to eight games. Their magic number is now three and their third straight divisional half-season title looks assured.
Daytona Cubs
The Cubs game against Clearwater was rained out. They'll play a double-header sometime next week.
Peoria Chiefs
The Peoria Chiefs shucked the Cedar Rapids Kernels, 1-0.
Starter Francisco Batista got the Chiefs off to a great start, going six innings and allowing only two hits. He walked one and struck out three.
Daniel Keefe got the win with two innings of relief. He allowed one hit. He walked one and struck out two.
Corey Martin got his fifth save by pitching the ninth. He gave up a leadoff single, who got to third base after a bunt and a wild pitch. But Hak-Ju Lee gunned the runner out at the plate trying to score on a ground ball with one out. Martin did not have a strikeout or issue a walk.
Second baseman Logan Watkins was 2 for 3 with a walk. DH Jae-Hoon Ha was 2 for 3.
Boise Hawks
The Boise Hawks were blown away by the Tri-City Dust Devils, 6-3.
Juan Yasser Serrano took the loss after getting knocked around for five runs on eight hits over four innings. At least he didn't walk anyone or allow a home run. Serrano struck out three.
First baseman Richard Jones had a double in a 3 for 4 night. He scored once.
AZL Cubs
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Pitcher batting in Boise
PITCHER Cam Greathouse had one at-bat for Boise (I tried to get a video but hit the wrong button on my phone), grounding out weakly to short. After Ramirez got ejected (he spiked his helmet after getting thrown out at first: he had lined the ball at the pitcher and slowed down out of the batter’s box; the ball rebounded away from the pitcher and Ramirez tried to get to first but the pitcher recovered well and barely threw him out; I think Ramirez would have been safe if he’d been hustling all the way), Jody Davis moved DH Chris Huseby into RF. That lost the DH spot, and Greathouse batted the only time the leadoff position came around in the order. He didn’t throw a single pitch, either.
Welcome back Josh - I missed your minor league news.
If the Cubs still have a chance, no matter how small, it’s still Go Cubs, damn the math and pass the KoolAid.
Archer breezed through the first 6 innings
He had a shutout and had thrown 85 pitches. He hit a bump in the 7th on at least one freak hit and a wild pitch. He only gave up two singles in the inning one of which deflected off the first baseman, but in the end 2 runs scored. Two bad they could not have held the lead for him.
"Lou Piniella's been a great manager for a long time and I stand by him completely"
Jim Hendry
Archer is one to watch very closely in the Arizona Fall League.
I think he will have a real shot at the 2011 rotation — and could be REAL good.
We will have the benefit of hindsight if it happens, but if he is, that obviously makes the DeRosa deal look a lot better.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Interesting re: 2011 rotation.
Any thoughts on what I was typing below as you posted this?
If you think Archer has real shot, are you assuming Z is traded? Or Silva will be hurt/traded/shipped to pen? No FA signing? Otherwise… who gets bumped? Demp, Gorz, and Wells seem like locks, to me, and I assume Z and Silva will be back.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
I don't think it matters if Z is traded.
I think Archer gets a shot anyway.
Maybe they can deal Silva if he throws well in September. His 2011 contract isn’t too large, given that the Mariners are paying about half of it.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Wells is no lock for the 2011 rotation
He’s been pretty terrible this year, extremely inconsistent – a couple of great starts followed by a couple of disaster starts followed by a couple of great starts and so on. He has a 4.6 ERA
I’d think the locks for the rotation in 2011 are Dempster, Gorz, BigZ (assuming he isn’t stupidly traded), and that’s it. I could see both Wells and Silva in the bullpen if they are still on the team. I think the last 2 rotation spots will be for an FA and 1 in house candidate or two in house candidates.
Wells peripherals have all improved.
To those who are sabermetrically inclined, that means he has been a whole lot of “unlucky”. In many ways, this kind of balances out him being “lucky” the year before (“outperforming” his peripherals).
That means the “true” Randy probably lies somewhere between ’09 and ’10. In that case, that is a pitcher who should have a spot locked in the rotation, particularly given that he is cost controlled.
One thing of note for Wells is he’s had a lot of trouble from the stretch. If that gets ironed out, he improves in a big way.
BTW… kind of interesting you think trading Z would be stupid (or perhaps you’re just opposed to trading him in a stupid manner, such as eating 75% of the contract) while seemingly giving up on Wells. If you look at all the peripherals, Z and Wells are fairly similar pitchers at very dissimilar salaries.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
I think its stupid to trade Z in any manner. Eating 75% of his contract or not.
But BigZ’s salary makes him a more certain member of the 2011 rotation than Wells. Now that Lou is gone, I believe we will see the Z we saw last year, the one that had a 3.7 ERA and was worth 3 WAR It will also be the same one we’ve seen this year minus a couple of bad starts (opening day + WSox).
I also think Z is a better pitcher than Randy Wells and the numbers back me up
Big Z in 2009 ERA/FIP = 3.77/3.61
Wells in 2009 ERA/FIP = 3.05/3.88
Big Z in 2010 = 4.64/4.04
Wells in 2010 = 4.56/4.06
Pretty even in 2010, except for the fact that Wells wasn’t jerked around from starter > BP > starter > anger management > BP > starter like BigZ
And if you think Wells has been “unlucky” in 2010 (BABIP = .326, + 0.32 higher than 2009), then Big Z (BABIP = .353, +0.45 higher than 2009) would like to have a word with you……
Wait a minute.
Why do we excuse Z’s bad starts, but not Randy’s (as you noted above)?
Z has made 13 starts. He has pitched into the 7th inning 3 times. Three. Now, he can get a tiny bit of slack for needing to build up arm strength, but we should surely be expecting more out of our expensive “ace”.
Z has just 6 “quality starts”, one of which I would actually call a bad start (hard to let him off the hook for unearned runs when he gave up 10 base runners and 5 runs in 6 innings). Of those, I think you can really only say 4 of them are GOOD starts. He has three starts giving up 1 run or less. He has zero starts giving up zero runs.
Z’s WHIP is 1.68, which is at best mediocre. Even if BABIP says Z is more unlucky… he makes even more bad luck for himself. He has walked 45 batters in just 83 innings.
Wells has 26 starts. He has pitched into the 7th 12 times.
14 of them were quality starts (plus a 5 shutout inning start 3 days after being shelled by the Cards).
Of those 14, 9 times he has given up 1 run or less. 4 times he has not allowed a run in a start. The point here is that when Randy is good, he is very, very good. When he is bad, he is very, very bad. Z on the other hand is largely just mediocre the vast majority of the time.
Randy’s WHIP is 1.42 and he has allowed 50 walks in 154 IP. That’s right…. Z is about to catch Randy in walks in basically half as many starts and IP.
As you noted, overall they’ve been very similar pitchers this year. So I guess what seems most odd to me is why you would try to keep Zambrano and bump Wells to the bullpen.
If they’re basically the same pitcher, why not trade Zambrano for some salary relief (~$8M?) that you could use on another position? Doesn’t that make the team better than just moving Wells to the pen (if a starter needs to be bumped)?
Shut up Joe Morgan.
I'd say
there is a significant difference in their stuff, if not their results this season. Sometimes you do need to look at their stuff. If someone has great stuff but bad results, that could be fixable. If their stuff is mediocre and the results are poor, there isn’t much hope.
However, I’d have to see Zambrano’s stuff some more before I’d make a final decision on that. He seems to have lost something.
But I don’t see this as an either/or proposition. Zambrano isn’t likely to go anywhere without eating a major part of their contract. Wells would be movable because he doesn’t make much.
by Josh Timmers on Aug 27, 2010 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I would have to say at this point
Archer would have a shot at the rotation next year, Yes?
Barring any free agent signings, he would get a outside shot.
“Z”, Demp. Gorzo., Silva, Wells and Archer getting a chance to push Wells.
I don’t know the guy has pitched well all season, lets hope this carries forward to 2011.
Camp invite for sure.
But probably a more outside shot at the rotation.
He’ll have ~ half year of experience above A+. And his peripherals, while still good, aren’t as dominant as his record or ERA. That suggests there’s still a little sharpening to do.
So I hope he starts in AA or AAA next year (depending on where the Cubs prefer to have a top prospect)… and then maybe get a call-up after the ASB if everything is still progressing.
I would say Silva is most vulnerable in the rotation, if for no other reason than health. IMO, I don’t see anybody pushing Wells out unless he regresses. He’s been fine. If an injury or a trade opens up a spot in the rotation (and assuming we don’t pick up a FA starter), I would be fine with starting the year with the winner of a competition between Coleman, Atkins, Shark, Jackson, Diamond, or maybe Carpenter. Give Archer time to sharpen those skills… so when you bring him up, it is for good.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
What you said
I think Archer needs a little more time in the minors. The AFL will tell us more, but I think he needs to work on going deeper into games and being more consistent in getting that curveball over.
by Josh Timmers on Aug 27, 2010 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions
Agree on Wells
His LD rate is a bit concerning this year, but his control and K rate suggest he will be a very seviceable pitcher. I agree with what you said above about Z. Fact is that Z is really just an average pitcher now no matter how you slice it. With his velocity down, he is really going to have to improve his command to get anywhere close to where be used to be.
by JSB on Aug 27, 2010 11:06 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Last year Well dominated RHB
they hit .221 with an OPS of only .575. This year those same RHB are at .281/.788. He’s also had the same large spike in his numbers when he’s got anyone on base. So we have to hope Rothschild can get him to locate better next year or really improve his pitching out of the stretch.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
It's nice to have some pitching depth...
…it might not make it necessary to sign someone risky like Brandon Webb to a one year deal.
Proud recipient of a hot dog shot from the Iowa Cubs hot dog gun.
Archer looks like the real deal
but I really don’t want him rushed. Did not work for Cashner or Shark.
"Lou Piniella's been a great manager for a long time and I stand by him completely"
Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Aug 27, 2010 11:04 AM CDT reply actions
Shark
could be in the rotation next April. His walk totals still scare me, but he’s pitched well otherwise this season.
by Josh Timmers on Aug 27, 2010 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions
I assume they will give him a Sept. call up with Lou gone.
I think he can fight for a spot next year. Honestly beyond Gorzo & Demp nothing is certain in the rotation.
"Lou Piniella's been a great manager for a long time and I stand by him completely"
Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Aug 27, 2010 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions
I really don't think he's ready
He can’t go deep in the game because his control is spotty. And I don’t know if he has effected a 3rd pitch. But most of all, I want to see movement on his FB. Every time he’s pitching in the bigs, it seems there is very little action on the ball. That might work in the minors, but it’s death in the bigs. He’s still young, give him another full year at AAA.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
"Young"?
Shark will be 26 in January. That’s not “young”.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
He's 25 now
He’s given up 60 BB in 100 innings this year. He isn’t ready yet. Make him earn his way this time instead of annointing him.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
More of a "minor" issue (no pun intended)
But WTF is up with Stevens? He wasn’t having any issue with AAA hitters before coming to Chicago, but he seems to have fallen off a cliff since returning to Iowa.
I liked him and had hoped he would find “it” so he could be a serviceable middle reliever.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
Stevens...
… will be 27 in a couple of weeks. He’s already been traded twice (he was the PTBNL sent to Cleveland from the Reds in the Brandon Phillips deal).
At this point, he appears to be a Quad-A player.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Then he should be in the majors with Lou gone
And you misspelled our new manager’s name.
by Josh Timmers on Aug 27, 2010 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not saying he'll be a stud.
But why can’t he be a usable middle reliever?
Since he’s 27, couldn’t we expect him to get slightly better in the next couple of years since he’s just entering his “prime”?
I don’t care how many times he’s been traded. Cliff Lee has been traded 4 times. There’s obviously a very large talent differential there, but I just don’t see how Stevens being traded twice is at all relevant to whether he could be a major league middle reliever.
He also had some success during his stints with Chicago, after being very good in Iowa. That’s why I asked what’s going on with him at this point.
I have no misconception that he’ll eventually be the closer. But why couldn’t he be a middle-class man’s Michael Wuertz?
Shut up Joe Morgan.
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