Cage Match: Archer v. McNutt
by cubsfan1 on Aug 28, 2010 7:14 AM CDT
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Earleir this month I took a look at our pitching depth and rated our pitchers. In that post I gave McNutt the #1 slot and taking out Cashner because he lost his prospect status Archer was the defacto #2. There was a poll and Archer garnered 40% of the votes as our best pitching prospect to McNutt's meager 16%. This surprised me some and left me wondering if I should take a closer look at both. Here is a complete breakdown of each player.
The Numbers:
W-L ERA WHIP IP H BB K K/9 BB/9 H/9 HRA GO/AO BAA
Archer 15-2 2.26 1.15 135.33 95 61 143 9.5 4.0 6.3 6 1.44 .196
McNutt 10-1 2.31 1.08 105.33 79 35 124 10.6 3.0 6.7 3 0.94 .206
Pretty similar overall. Both are having outstanding seasons and not much difference in any 1 spot.
Edge: Draw
BUILD: McNutt has big, strong, and athletic frame standing 6'4 205. This is a classic pitchers frame with a strong lower half that screams of a innings eating stud. Archer is a slim 6'3 180 and have not heard anything about durability concerning his slight frame.
Edge: McNutt . While I'm not necessarily knocking Arch, if you had to pick a frame you'd definately take McNutt's classic power pitcher build.
FASTBALL: Archer sits 91-93 and tops out at 96 with some sink and armside run. His FB splinters bats generating groundballs and limiting HR. The draw back with his over the top delivery is the FB can get straight at times if he does not stay on top of it. McNutt throws 92-94 reaching back and hitting 96 when needed. The pitch has outstanding late riding life exploding onto hitters.
Edge: Draw. For the sake of this piece I'm not gonna haggle over either ones. Both are above average to plus pitches.
CURVEBALL: McNutt has a true hammer curve that is a swing and miss pitch. Archer's curve is also a hard breaking pitch. This along with the FB helps him generate an above average grounball rate. He does struggle to command this pitch and can get slurvy/sloppy at times.
Edge: Draw. Again I'm not gonna nit pick. Both grade out as above average to plus pitches.
CHANGEUP: McNutt has a solid current CU with makings to be at least ML average with the potential to be above average. I'm confident this should give him 3 solid to above average pitches. Archer CU is below average and he rarley uses the pitch not trusting it. Archer needs to work to refine this pitch and use it more to offset his hard stuff to be an effective ML SP
Edge: McNutt
COMMAND: Archer seemed to really be making big strides in this area at the start of the season. The knock on him has always been command. In 2008 and 2009 Archer posted a disgusting 6.0 BB/9 over 224 1/3 IP. Sarting this year in high A he seemed to have made huge strides posting a respectable 3.2 BB/9 over 72.33 IP. Unfourtunately this has since regressed since stepping up to AA to the trune of 5.0 BB/9. McNutt also had questions concerning his command coming into this year and while he is a full walk better per 9 then Archer I'm not ready to say McNutt has turned the corner. His BB/9 rate has improved of late but as Archer has found out the step up to AA and more advanced hitters can be tough.
Edge: Draw because I want to see how McNutt handles more advanced hitters in this respect. and if he can continue to show post a respectable walk rate.
OVERALL: Both have had dominant seasons but the edge overall goes clearly to McNutt in my mind. The frame combined with a better CU and 3 pitch mix give him an excellent chance to be a long term starter. Archer probably profiles more as a 3 or 4, if he does start in the ML, because of command and lack of CU. He needs to trust his stuff and stop nibbling and attack hitters while learning to trust his CU. There has always been questions concerning Archers ability to remain a starter and still hasn't answered them outstanding season or not. McNutt right now has a ceiling of an above average #2 on a 1st division team and may by mid season next year could up that to potentially an ace.
If you really look into the numbers outside of the high win total and lower era the peripherals are pretty much the same as what Archer did last year. I just don't see the step forward that some think. I will again post a poll to see if anyone has been persuaded to change their vote. If your still going Archer I'd love to get some discusion going in this thread on why you think this.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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2 cents/thoughts
a) Been hearing that Archer has sat more consistently in the mid-90’s this summer, and has been able to touch high 90’s.
b) Your a bit higher on McNutt’s changeup than what I’ve heard. I’ve heard that both McNutt and Archer basically have decent, developing changeups. Archer’s isn’t bad …
c) I don’t know if McNutt’s curve is classified as one of the elite breaking balls in the minors. A lot of people are putting Archer’s breaking ball as one of the tops in the minors. Btw, even Archer has noted in interviews that he uses a slider, just for clarification purposes (you list him with a curve).
I have to admit, I’ve pondered McNutt over Archer myself, and I may yet push towards that conclusion when I do a final list in the winter. The last few starts could change my mind. As of now, I tend to still lean towards Archer. I think McNutt’s command/control is a touch better, but I’m hard pressed to think it is significantly better yet. I’m not sure McNutt’s changeup is that much better than Archer’s. I’ve heard that Archer gets decent fade on his change, but he just doesn’t go to it much.
What should be said about both is that neither guy is a lock to be a starter. Archer has to work on consistency/command, to go with his changeup, and McNutt likely has to do the same. Archer will likely head to Iowa next spring, with McNutt in Tennessee. Going to be interesting how they develop. Both are solid top 5 prospects in the system right now (at least for me), though.
this is why development of talent is the next system's hurdle
talent appears to be not the obstacle anymore. Maybe Maddux has some ideas on this. To me the amount of $ used on established MLB talent that is not refined tells me that greater investment in individual development of players would bear greater dividends…
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
btw
if it wasn’t clear, I’m voting for Archer because I think his stuff is just that small tick better right now. If he can really go mid-90’s as a starter, as some reports have suggested, while getting good downward movement, well, that’s superb. And I believe in his slider more than I believe in McNutt’s curve, although both are good pitches.
Response
a) had not heard about the jump in velo being consistent. If you have a link to the article I’d love to see it. Even so I hope this is right.
b) McNutt uses his CU in games. My problem w/ Archers is he does not use it in games or trust it. I said McNutts is solid meaning average w/ potential. Archers may be on the same plane but I have yet to see or hear of it being used it in games. My buddy seen McNutt twice this year and said he used his a couple times in game play to get outta a couple tough spots.
c)BA and BP both say Archer uses a CB. He may be using a slurve I guess. If Arch says it’s a SL can’t really contest that thought. Thanks for clarifiying that. I’ve seen video of McNutt from this year but I’ll admit I’m going on 2nd hand info of ppl seeing Archer. McNutt does have a power curve that flashes plus and easily is above average. Like I said I wasn’t gonna nit pick but i you say it’s elite I’ll go w/ that.
i feel much safer about McNutt being a SP based on the ability to use his change in game giving him 3 solid pitches w/ 2 being above average to plus as well as his frame. Archer is basically still having command problems while McNutt has seemed to get better while Archer has regressed. I admit let’s see how McNutt’s control holds up in AA now. As always great to hear you weigh in toons.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
I voted for Archer...
… but only because he’s closer to major league ready than McNutt, who is only 20. Archer could actually have a shot at the major league rotation next year.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Because he has exactly 2 starts at high AA
"Lou Piniella's been a great manager for a long time and I stand by him completely"
Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Aug 28, 2010 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions
And he's going to the Arizona Fall League.
I’m sure the Cubs don’t want him throwing too many more innings before the AFL season.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
What makes you think that Archer has a chance to win a rotation spot?
He’s still only 21 years old. Seems like all of Shark, Chris Carpenter, and Jay Jackson would have to completely flop for Archer to get a rotation spot. I realize that Archer has a higher ceiling than those guys, but I don’t see the Cubs rushing Archer with older options ahead of him.
Archer will be 22 next month.
He has dominated every level he’s been at. Not just done well, but DOMINATED. The others you mention, regardless of age, have not done that.
He’ll certainly be added to the 40-man roster this offseason and I believe given a chance to make the 2011 rotation.
There should be plenty of space on the 40-man after some of the deadwood relievers are cleared off. I don’t see any reason for the Cubs to keep Schlitter, Mateo, Gray, Parker, Stevens or Gaub on the 40-man after this season.
Start fresh.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
he'll definitely be on the 40 man
and he’ll definitely be there in the spring, but barring tremendous improvement on command, consistency, and change, it’s really hard for me to imagine that he’ll win a rotation spot. Dempster/Wells probably have spots locked up. Ideally, Cashner would get one spot (it’s easy for folks to forget, but Cashner has better fb/breaking ball than Archer). There’s still Z/Silva hanging around, along with Gorzelanny. With work to do, I’m hard pressed to see Archer make the leap into solid rotation spot.
Exactly
Archer still has too much work to do (5 BB/9 in AA is concerning) and there are too many other options for it to be likely that Archer wins (or even is given an opportunity to win) a rotation spot. No need to rush Archer. Let’s take our time on him.
Ok, so you are making a wild guess
One that is probably wrong. Just wanted confirmation that you had no source on this information.
Thanks for the slam.
In fact, I do have some information about this. Expect it to happen.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Deep Goat?
Well, considering the Cubs have mishandled several pitching prospects in recent memory that isn’t too surprising. I really hope Archer starts in AAA next season and has a chance to work out the kinks in his command.
Everything I've heard
suggests that their plan is to start him in AAA. From folks I’ve talked to, I’ve even heard some suggest that they may keep him in AA to start 2011 (barring a surprise, he won’t be headed up to AAA to end the year). that said, Archer will be invited to spring, barring a stunner (such as a trade involving him). If he improves his command and change enough, sure, they might ponder bringing him as the 5th starter. Nothing’s impossible for a team that’s rebuilding. I just don’t think it’s that likely right now.
I think it’s more likely that, if he does break camp, that they might bring him as a pen arm. That’d be horrible mishandling, but I think that’s a touch more likely at this moment in time. That said, let’s wait and see what happens in the fall. Rafael Dolis secured a 40 man spot on account of one start at Instructs, by most accounts.
You're probably right.
However, I understand that everyone in the organization loves Archer and could be fast-tracking him. What he does in the AFL may have an impact.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
My sources
Are extremely high on Archer as well. Higher than on McNutt.
by Josh Timmers on Aug 28, 2010 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions
McNutt just turned 21...
… and this is only his second pro season. Archer has made 95 minor league starts and has been in pro ball since 2006. That’s quite a bit more experience for Archer.
I believe he’ll get a shot at the major league rotation next year. We’ll see how he does in the AFL.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
If he improves as much next season
as he did this season, I think it’s possible.
by Josh Timmers on Aug 29, 2010 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Does he have to be added to the 40-man roster? If not, then why the rush?
I’m a bit fuzzy on the details, but I know that after x number of years, you have to be on the 40-man roster or be subjected to Rule 5 draft, right? I don’t imagine Archer fits into that category so why would he be added to 40-man roster?
I also realize that in order to make the big league club, i.e. the 25-man roster, you have to be on the 40-man as well, so obviously if he makes the 2011 rotation, he’ll be added, but why take that action before you have to? Wouldn’t the club be better off by keeping the maximum amount of flexibility?
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
IIRC it's 5 years after you're drafted
Not sure how it works for non drafted players or international players. And I don’t know when Archer was drafted
But if he’s ready, why not call him up i.e. Castro?
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
Not quite
It’s four years after you were drafted you have to be put on the 40 man or five years if you signed at 18 or younger.
Archer signed at 17 and is in his fifth minor league season, so he will have to be added to the 40 man.
McNutt signed at 19, but is only finishing up his second minor league season, so he does not need to be added.
by Josh Timmers on Aug 30, 2010 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions
ahh.... ok, that makes sense then.
Thanks for the insight and followup, Josh.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Al I agree
But I think you should hold onto a guy like Mateo who can throw 95+ and if he gets some command down could still be a serviceable reliever
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
Big IFs for a guy who is going to be 27 next year.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I've never figured out
the Cubs love of Mateo. Maybe they’re just trying to make sure they got something of value for Buck Coates.
by Josh Timmers on Aug 30, 2010 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions
I voted Archer
I’ve heard Archer’s curve is better than McNutt’s, at least when he gets it over. He’s also been better at a higher level as Al pointed out.
But the bottom line is that they’re both great prospects who could be dominating starters in 2012. Even if only one of them pans out, that’s good news for the Cubs.
Voted Archer
Success at AA is pretty key in my book. Unless McNutt had a significantly greater upside, I will take the guy that has already had success at a higher level.
Archer>McNutt
Flaherty>>>LeMahieu
Nah, just kidding. Sometimes it’s fun to poke the bear.
Somebody take Aramis' bat off the restricted list, please.
Ultimately it's all about command
Shark, Coleman, Cashner, Diamond and everyone of our young pitchers have had high BB averages. If there is anything to be learned it is that we must develop pitchers that can throw strikes and have some movement on their FB. Even if we have to teach them to take a little off the pitch rather than onstantly fall behind batters. Until Archer brings his BB rate down, I’ll have to consider McNutt over Archer. However, I did hear that Archer was one of the finalists for Minor League something or other of the year.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
Baseball America
named him as one of their finalists for Minor League Player of the Year.
by Josh Timmers on Aug 28, 2010 10:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Couple Thoughts
1. PPL are still being swayed by Archers numbers. Overall his 2010 season, when looking into the peripherals, K/9, BB/9, H/9, it’s basically a carbon copy of 2009. Aside from the large W total and slightly lower ERA . While I’m not a huge believer in FIP, Archer, has posted a 3.44 FIP in AA this year.
2. Ok I’ll buy into Archers breaking pitch being better then McNutts. I’ll even say I agree it’s a good deal better. The problem is Archer still cannot consistently command it. I don’t care how good it is if he cannot spot it will be far less effective on the ML level.
3. Even if Archers CU is as good as McNutts the simple fact is McNutt uses his and uses it effectively in game play. Archer MUST uses his to offset his hard stuff in the ML. He still has yet to show he will use it oin game play. Thus the questions about his ability to start long term.
4. McNutt’s command is currently better. i do want to see what he does against AA comp but even in a small sample size he still is roughly the same BB/9 as what he has posted in lower levels. Also McNutt has gotten better as this year has wore on command wise.
i still cannot see how ppl are far higher on Archer. Great he’s 1 of BA’s pticher of the year candidates but the simple act is Archer still has every question he had coming into this year. I’m glad to see Archer pitching well. The problem is right now as in today unless he makes a large stride in command and using/trusting his CU the simple fact is he profiles as releiver.
McNutt has a usable 3rd pitch in his CU giving him 2 above average pitches and a solid average 3rd. His command is at this point much better. Combine in that frame and McNutt is a pretty safe bet to be a ML SP. I’ll go as far as to say Archers FB/SL is much better then McNutts but the the profile of MiLB players that show plus hard stuff but lack a CU/command is numerous and either leaves them in the pen or busts.
i like both players and hope both pan out no doubt. i have been “prospecting” since I was a kid in the 80’s long before it was vogue to be a prospect hound. the number of guys I’ve seen w/ Archs exact profile in the last 20+ years is far to many to list. The simple fact is as we sit today, right now, w/ what we know Archer is probably a #4 or a bullpen arm. I’ll take a guy who has a slightly worse FB/CB combo but better command and usable CU over a player who has even plus-plus FB/SL combo.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
I'd also like to point out....
McNutts FIP this year by level:
low A – 2.16
high A – 2.57
AA (granted only 9 2/3 IP) – 2.34
Like I said i am not 1 of those folks who over use FIP or LOB%. I look at both stats and feel that far 2 many ppl use them as a be all end all stat. That said Archers FIP is 3.44 or almost 2 full runs above his AA era. Also he is posting a strand rate of 83.8% or roughly 12% better then the norm. For those who don’t understand this usually someone posting even a few pts better will adjust back to the norm over a full year and someone posting 12% is ridiculous and screams a jump in ERA.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
With those walks, he's going to suffer...
…when those rates come back to the norm.
Proud recipient of a hot dog shot from the Iowa Cubs hot dog gun.
Nevermind...
thought you were talking about Archer. meh
Proud recipient of a hot dog shot from the Iowa Cubs hot dog gun.
I voted McNutt...
Until Archer gets a handle on his atrocious walk rate, he’s going to suffer at the MLB level, in my uninformed and uninspired opinion.
Proud recipient of a hot dog shot from the Iowa Cubs hot dog gun.
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