The Inevitability of Adam Dunn: A Cautionary Tale

Hey, Cub Fans. This is my first post here (just joined) and I wanted to further talk about a pretty controversial topic. I used to write a very sabermetric based baseball blog, so I thought I’d write an article with some of that mixed in. This seemed like a pretty interesting study or case. It involves two players: Adam Dunn and Tom Brunansky.

Let me start off by saying this: Adam Dunn is a really good offensive player. There is no doubt about that part. He is money in the bank for wOBA’s of over .350 and hitting forty home runs. Over the past few weeks it seems like there is a pretty strong chance that Adam Dunn will become a Chicago Cub next year. I’m not opposed to this, but I'm very worried about it.

Adam Dunn has what Bill James coined as  "old player skills". These players tend to age faster and their production can fall off at any moment. These "old player skills" usually contain five traits:

1.Bad Body (overweight)

2.Power

3.Good walk rate

4. High strikeout rate

5.Over 30

The thing that scares me is that Adam Dunn fits all of that criteria.  Bill James in his abstract points it out better:

For a pitcher, there is virtually no relationship between outstanding performance as a rookie and eventually attaining star status.

 

 

In trying to figure out how much a player will develop, probably the one most important factor to consider, other than the player's ability, is his age.

 

 

Most major league players reach the majors at age 22 or later. The great majority of major stars reach the majors at age 22 or earlier.

 

Furthermore, as a player ages. . .

 

. . .his skills undergo certain predictable changes. All players lose speed as they age; thus, speed-related skills are young player's skills.

 

 

. . .power increases as a percentage of value, not in every case but in most. Thus, power is an old player's skill.

 

 

. . .he will tend in most cases to draw more walks. Thus, drawing walks is an old player's skill.

 

 

. . .his batting average will almost always decrease. Thus, hitting for average is a young player's skill.

 

 

. . .he tends to drive in more runs and score fewer. Thus, runs scored are a young player's skill, and RBI are an old player's skill.

 

As a result, "the further along in this progression the player is (regardless of age), the closer he is to the end of his career (or, conversely, the earlier he is in this progression, the longer he can be expected to play)."

Many players, perhaps most players, are driven out of the major leagues indirectly because they lose their speed. If you can create seven runs a game if doesn't matter how fast you are; you can play first base or DH. But as a player loses speed as he ages, he loses the ability to play the positions (center field, shortstop, second base) at which offensive ability is scarce, and thus loses the ability to stay in the majors without creating seven runs a game.

 

Link

When I was thinking of a player I should compare Dunn with, which is harder than you think, a couple names came to mind: Richie Sexson, Mo Vaughn, and Tom Brunansky. Out of that list Brunansky seemed like the most comparable. 

Brunansky was a power hitting right fielder (usually). He played for several teams including the Red Sox. Brunansky always had the power. He usually always had over 20 home runs. But, did he have the dreaded "old player skills?"

Let’s go throught the "old player skills list. Here's a quick look:

Brunansky had the dreaded "old player skills." He struck out a lot, he hit home runs, and he walked a fair amount of times.

Now, the strikeouts are down because Burnansky couldn't stay on the field, injuries and badness limited his playing time. But this gives you a quick look at Brunansky's skills. Now, the home run column doesn't really tell the story. Prior to his age 28 season here was Brunansky's home run totals:

Brunansky Home Run Totals

As you can see Tom was a prodigious home run hitter. Every year he  was putting up 20 plus home runs until the age 29 season. And that's where the "old players skills"  kicked in. We all age, some fast, some slow, some gracefully. But one thing distinguishes baseball players, and that's their skill set. Every player has different skill set. Some are fast, some are slow, some are high average, some are low on base. But as I've mention before the skill set that ages less gracefully is the High Walk/High Home Run type players. It's been proven that these types of players age less gracefully. Adam Dunn is not exactly like Tom Brunansky, but he's very similar from a skill set standpoint.

Dunn has what we described earlier as "old player skills." Everyone knows Adam Dunn's prodigious power. But all we can do in baseball is take an educated guess based on past performance. 

I'm not even going to give you the stats here. We know Adam Dunn will strike out a lot. When I was reading this same blog earlier I saw a lot of you guys saying that. But you just can't deny Adam Dunn's power or patience. Right now Adam Dunn has a .291 ISO. That's the highest ISO since 2005  and that was in an extreme hitter friendly ballpark. The D.C. park is more of a fair park. That's amazing to produce your highest ISO in five years.

If you go to one of my favorite sites (Fangraphs), they let you display players side by side, so I can show you a Adam Dunn and Tom Brunansky comparison . Now we know both are very good home run hitters. As evidenced by their ISO's.

Dunn is only getting better as the years go on. I. So, we know both are pretty good power hitters, there's nothing to worry about, right? Wrong. 

Here is when the risk of decline sets in.

This graph illustrates  Adam Dunn and Tom Brunansky's Walk rate (by age, not year)

via www.fangraphs.com

Dunn has always been more prone to walking than Brunansky, but both have been abouve average for almost all of their respective careers. But the huge decline in Dunn's walk rate tells me two things: 

1.  He's changed his approach

2.  He's starting to decline

I'm more inclined to believe number two. I'm trying to be objective; and almost a ten point drop in walk rate scares me. But also it could show Dunn has tried to be more aggressive at the plate. I'm not sure I agree with him, but hey, anything can work.

The next and last illustration I'll bore you with is the K/BB. I think K to walk ratio will give a better idea of a hitter. 

via www.fangraphs.com

This is the big one. This is the one reason why I'm wary of signing the Big Donkey. That K/BB has been declining for almost three years now. I really see no reason why this will continue or improve. This is the thing with the Donkey; what if that big body breaks down, what if it can't hit for power anymore. What if Pitchers realize his power is off and start attacking him more. Those are my concerns. Think about it from a pitcher standpoint (this is what like a pitching coach would say)

Alright <insert name of pitcher here>, Dunn really doesn't have the power he once had. If you bust him inside he won't be able to catch up, his bat speed is gone. Even if you miss your spot, since his power's gone, you'll be able to get away with it. Attack him inside.

I can easily see that happening. Yes, right now Adam Dunn is great, but what if he loses just a little bit of bat speed?  With those kinds of skills he won't be able to age gracefully, just like Tom Brunansky. For a team that seems like it's on it's way for another 90 plus loss season in 2011, this doesn't seem like a wise investment. One thing I think people don't realize too is that the first base crop in 2012 is excellent. Why not go after Adrian Gonzalez? Instead of spending money for risky player like Dunn, hey, why not take a chance at Adrain, who has a much better shot at being excellent for years to come. Again, the point of this was not to say Adam Dunn is a bad player, don't sign him, it was to show how much of a risk Jim Hendry would be taking. There's no doubt in my mind Dunn could excel at Wrigley Field. My god, he could hit 50 home runs in that ballpark. But for a team that doesn't seem to be going anywhere why take that risk?

The thing is: I haven't even brought up his defense. Yes, right now he has a mediocre UZR, but five months of UZR really doesn't tell us anything. Dunn was annually a bad defender, not only with the metrics but the eye test. That even worries me more.

The thing that also scares me is that you see this all the time. Mo Vaughn, Richie sexson. The examples are endless and this is really bothersome. Of course Adam Dunn could get in great shape and be even better, but it doesn't  seem likely. But the again if Jim Hendry signs Dunn to a 3 year deal, hey, good for him. But that probably won't happen. You just don't find forty home run guys every day. That's just my take on the situation. This is my first post here so hopefully it's not too bad ( I looked at other recommended posts to get a good idea). All thoughts would be appreciated.  Go Cubs.