I’d say you’re looking at legit prospects in Chris Archer, Trey McNutt, Jay Jackson (even with a tough year, has strong upside), Carpenter, Brett Jackson, Hak-ju Lee…

You could make cases for players like Dolis and Smith as well (I won’t discount Smiths year due to his age after watching some other “organizational filler” take success to the majors).

Guyer and Smith, IMO, have gotten better, but their long term prognosis is only marginally better.

I still think Guyer, who had a lot of luck in his tremendous 2nd half, is still an Eric Byrnes-ish type. He has a go get it attitude defensively, although he’s not a top defensive player. Good range, solid arm. Some pop, some speed, but not exceptional on either side. Capable of spotting in CF, but not a regular option for CF. Short of it is, an ideal 4th OF, could occasionally start, depending on situation.

I think Marquez Smith is a nice utility option. Mainly a third baseman, he played some 2nd in Peoria (off the top, can’t recall if he did in Daytona). Line drive power. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs asked him to eventually pick up an OF glove. In some respects, he’s similar to Jeff Baker, although not as gifted.

In terms of pushing to legit prospect status, the two guys that obviously emerged into that category are Archer/McNutt. With a decent June and a torrid July, Junior Lake has probably edged himself into top 10 status. He’s a ridiculously toolsy and talented kid, so seeing improvement is nice, but I still have some questions. Along with Hak-ju Lee, Josh Vitters, Brett Jackson, Christopher Carpenter (strong summer to end his AA run), and Jay Jackson (surprisingly solid control this year, problems with long ball that were anticipated have really come back to hit him, have heard his slider hasn’t been as good this year), those eight are typically considered in our top 10 prospect list.
 
Some other names loosely put in a positive and other/negative category:

Positives:

Robert Whitenack and Brooks Raley have had strong 2nd halfs. Both guys profile more as end of the rotation guys if they make it up. I didn’t do an August update to my prospect list yet, so I can’t tell you where I would rank them, but both probably fit within the top 30 and have raised their status IMO.

Chris Rusin is a mid-end of the rotation lefty. He’s had a superb season and I could see him, in a positive scenario, perhaps develop into what Ted Lilly was the last few years, an overachieving lefty with average stuff (of course, that’s a very positive scenario, he could be a dime-a-dozen lefty as well). I want to put him in the top 10 on account of the superb performance, but realistically, I’ll probably slot him in the 12-17 area.

Alberto Cabrera has sort of been forgotten. After a hot start in Daytona, he was bumped to Tennessee. There, he struggled. While reports suggested that he might be slowly turning the corner, they shipped him back to Daytona, where he’s been solid. He still has a mid-90’s fastball and a good breaking ball (slider off the top – org is more of a slider than curve organization.) He’ll be in AA in his age 22/23 season, still very age appropriate, and is someone worth pondering. Probably in that 15-25 area for me. Gut feeling says the kid may be better off in the pen, being groomed as a late inning arm, but you should always give your best arms a chance to start.

Nick Struck was a guy in preseason who I thought could be a breakout guy. He had a solid run in Peoria and was bumped up to Daytona. He had a good July/August as a piggyback arm. I liked the athleticism and potential, although I’m not sure what to think. Mixed reports on velo this year. Some have him mid-80’s, whereas there were reports that pegged him in the high 80’s and touching low 90’s, which was what was expected. There might be a touch more potential in there. Maybe a top 30 guy.

Perhaps this goes under the other category, but Casey Lambert has been working his way back from TJ and has been decent to solid in Daytona. I still believe in his potential to be a pen arm.

Jeff Beliveau/James Leverton/Luke Sommer/Ryan Buchter have all flashed potential lefty pen ability to various degrees this year. Beliveau still has a big time breaking ball and will mow hitters down with it (same with Buchter to a lesser degree), while converted OF Luke Sommer and converted starter (former 2-way player) James Leverton will get their share of groundballs.

Aaron Shafer really put himself back on the map with the transition to the pen. His stuff wasn’t good enough to earn a starting job, but in the pen, he dominated in Daytona. Has had some struggles in Tennessee, but it’s nice to see something happen with a 2nd round pick.

Rafael Dolis hasn’t had a great season, but the ability is still there, although I’m a bit surprised the Cubs haven’t started transitioning him to the pen, where most expect his future to be. I think he’s in that 11-20 range.

LeMahieu/Flaherty have sort of held serve on their status entering the year, IMO, with both hanging around likely in the top 20.

Brenly might have moved it up a touch, showing decent potential to become a backup backstop.

Jae-Hoon Ha is like a better version of Nelson Perez – a ton of tools, but doesn’t strike out a third of the time. That said, for him to have a shot, he has to improve his discipline, but he’s definitely made a statement with his performance in the MWL. He likely fits in the top 30, but not sure where.

Matt Cerda has risen for me. I love the discipline. Shame he couldn’t stick at catcher. I think, with his lack of power, he needs to be able to handle 2nd to have a shot. I might ponder him top 30.

Frank Batista reportedly has a low 90’s fastball and a good slider, which is enough to give him potential as a pen arm, but he might be able to develop into more. Decent 2010, may be a breakout for 2011.

Former 3rd round pick Austin Kirk has really put himself as a guy to watch and could be a possible 2011 breakout. Right now, I think he fits within the top 30, perhaps top 20. Haven’t pondered that much, but he’s a solid potential lefty starting pitcher.

Su-min Jung is someone that cubsfan1 really likes. I see why people are intrigued, and he had a really solid 2nd half, but I’m still in more of a wait and see mode there. Possible top 30, although my guess is that, considering how I feel right now, I’ll probably leave him off.

Jeffry Antigua had a decent enough season in Peoria. Sure, he doesn’t seem to have the upside that was once hoped for, but he still could be a solid lefty arm. I may fit him in the top 30 still.

Russ Canzler has had a monster year in Tennessee, helping to anchor that lineup. Last I checked, his ISOP was around .280 (using the PECOTA formula). Just a monster season. Had some more time at 3rd once Vitters went down, although reports aren’t all that positive (to be expected). Likelihood is that he’s a slugger who could be a backup power bat, but worth pondering just because of his monstrous season at a decently age appropriate year (24).

Steve Clevenger’s bat has really taken off since he started getting regular time. Still a possible backup backstop, and honestly, could be a better fit with Soto since he does offer a lefty bat. That said, the former MI is behind Castillo and Chirinos.

Welington Castillo had himself a solid year, still decent-solid defensively, and showing some pop. He gets somewhat overlooked because Robinson Chirinos has had a monster season, and his status is really rising. Defensively, Chirinos is considered to be very good now. Offensively, he’s made strides. He’s still considered a strong leader. Going to be a nice battle for the backup backstop job.

Brent Ebinger, Dallas Beeler, Cam Greathouse, Aaron Kurcz, Luis Liria, Arismendy Alcantara, Pin-Chieh Chen, Austin Reed, Coliin Richardson, Ryan Hartman, Matt Szczur, Dustin Geiger, Marcos Perez, Wes Darvill (AZL stay) are some of the guys that put up intriguing numbers/performances in the low levels or has gotten a level of pub for their performance in the lower levels. Ebinger’s performance in Boise was solid, and Kurcz looks like he could be a potential fast-track pen arm. Of course, low level performance, positive or negative should be taken with a grain of salt, as these kids are still developing.

Other/Negative:

On the flip side, Dae-Eun Rhee has had his struggles in A+. He’s not as bad as his ERA looks, but there’s still a lot of work to be done. Of bigger concern is the fact that he’s only averaging 4.48 IP/S. People forget that pre-injury, there was some question as to whether or not he had the frame to start.

Chris Huseby fell apart again with his control, and is now playing OF/DH in Boise. The chances of him having much of a future seem rather slim.

Justin Bristow ended 2009 very strong, flashing a mid-90’s fastball at times. Then he got hurt.

Jon Nagel can’t stay healthy. The big sinkerballer has some potential (even if it is Justin Berg potential) but has to stay healthy.

Ryan Searle looked really promising in 2009, but things didn’t click in 2010. The velocity and stuff reports were down.

Alessandro Maestri still has good stuff, but hasn’t been able to find the consistency since returning and his chances to stick may be dwindling as a 25 year old in A+.

Luis Flores was suspended and then demoted to Peoria. Not sure the future is so bright for the former 7th rounder, since the system already has so many possible backup backstops and that was his best case scenario.

Logan Watkins still has prospect value, but he’s had a down season with the bat. The lack of power was expected – the 21% strikeout rate is troubling. The former prep QB will likely be developed as a utility player as he moves up, IMO, particularly if Cerda can take to 2nd (since they are on the same development path/level right now).

Juan Yasser Serrano came over with a decent amount of pub and has been … eh.

Larry Suarez was supposed to take a step forward this year. Folks in the system kept telling us that. The big international signing from several moons ago hasn’t done it yet.

John Gaub and Blake Parker both struggled with command in Iowa. I’m still not sure what really happened to Gaub. Both may have their 40 man spots on the line this winter.

Jordan Latham missed 2009 due to personal issues (DUI). It’s easy to forget the potential he once showed, but he was inconsistent and demoted to Boise.

Conclusion:

As you can see, there’s a lot more news with pitchers than positional players. Where the system ranks might not reflect on the success of the system. There’s been late buzz on serious prospect followers that the Cubs may inch back to the middle of the back on system rankings, if not a tinge higher. I’ve always said that my gut feeling (didn’t have time to seriously follow the entire minors this year) was that the Cubs were a 15-22, middle of the pack system. That said, one must remember the triple C graduations this year, and had 1, or 2, been eligible, the Cubs system might be top 10. Short of it is, it’s been a successful season with the minors, with each full-season level having a measure of success at some point in the season. One small note is that the low levels really don’t look good right now, in terms of potential and talent. Granted, the guys with ability are shifted up, but Boise and AZL were relatively thin this year, compared to years past. Sometimes, these things happen in cycles, and the fact that Golden didn’t play much, and Simpson had mono, along with Wells signing late, didn’t help things.