Season in Review: Hak-Ju Lee
by cubsfan1 on Sep 11, 2010 6:50 AM CDT
Email
PrintSigned out of Jeonju, South Korea for $725,000, Hak-Ju Lee, is the most celebrated Korean sign the Cubs have made yet. Before making it stateside scouting reports varied from very favorable with some comparing him to Derek Jeter (ridiculous) but 1 noted international scout said " he is nothing more then a slap hitter who's hand's and arm are questionable for a shortstop".
So far the results have been encouraging. From what I've read he has outstanding range, good arm, and soft hands so he seems to have answered some of the defensive questions the above international scout voiced. In 2009, Lee, posted a .330/.399/.420 triple slash line at Bosie and ranked as the #1 prospect in the Northwest League.
In 2010 the Cubs sent him off to low A in the pitcher friendly Midwest League. He started slowly but anyone from around the Midwest League territory can attest to it's a dificult enviornment early in the year because of the cold weather. Doing a quick run down of the league it was a very stacked year in terms of big time prospects. Lee would not rate top 5 only because of uber-prospects Mike Trout, Wil Myers, Aaron Hicks, Alexander Colome, and Nick Franklin are ahead of him . This is not a knock on Lee considering all 5 could rank in BA's top 25(all 5 probably won't but each will be in the discusion imho) in all of baseball. I would say he should come in somwhere between 6-12 for the league.
How good was Lee's season as a 19 year old in his 1st full year in pro ball? Well it's pretty much everything the Cubs could have asked for. I've used Elvis Andrus as a comp and I think it fits nicely. While it would be unfair to compare their seasons at low A ball because Andrus was almost 2 full years younger I'd say they both showed roughly the same things. The profile/scouting reports of the 2 are almost identical with Andrus grading out as better power wise.
After starting the year hitting .253 over the 1st 2 months of the season he heated up with the weather posting a .300 AVG in 303 ABs over the final 3 1/2 half months of the season. 32 SB in 39 attempts 82% success rate showing he knows how to use his plus-plus speed. 49 BB 8.9% walk rate shows the plate discpline you want to see out of a speedster. Lee hit lefties and righties equally well .285 v. lefties and .282 v. righties. Lee had a very consistent season showing everything you'd want from a potential above average ML lead-off hitter. He has a great hit tool, good PD, plus-plus speed, and plus D all wraped into a skinny 6'2 170 frame.
The 34 errors posted this year is not nearly as bad as it sounds. It's actually pretty darn good for a 19 year old kid with his range. It will get better as he gains expierence so nothing to worry about there. As Castro fills out he may be pushed to 2B by Lee that's how good his D is. The K rate is a bit high 17.7% 86 K in 486 ABs but I look for this to improve because he has an excelent eye and was facing really good compition some being as much as 3 years older. The E and K rate is nothing to concerning for me but what does stick out like a sore thumb is .068 ISO. Now power will never be his calling and as a top of the order hitter he won't need much but he does need some "show me power". His frame suggests he could fill out some and add some power. At the very least he needs gap-to-gap power and with only 22 2B and 4 3B I don't think he's really showed that yet.
Overall a fantastic season that shows promise and was everything the Cubs could have reasonably asked for from him. He will move up to Daytona high A in 2011 in a warmer more hitter friendly enviornment. Lee is on track and has showed just about everything you would want to see from a player of this profile. With the probable graduations of Bjax, Archer, and maybe McNutt he may rank as the Cubs #1 prospect by the end of the year.
P.S. On a side note the 725K we paid for him is a discount considering a Latin player with these tools probably would have cost us twice that.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
88 comments
|
3 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Thanks
for the writeup, you, Josh77 & toonsterwu are excellent sources of info on the Cubs minorleaguers. What do you think his ETA will be, and do you think the Cubs will be as aggressive in promoting him as they were with Castro? It would be pretty sweet to see the Cubs 1-2-3 hitters as Lee-Jackson-Castro in 2013. Will Lee make an AFL appearance?
On a side note, what are some good resources to look at what is available on the international FA market? Minorleagueball & mlbbonusbaby restrict themselves to signed players & american draftees respectively. I’m hoping the Cubs can continue to make strong international signings along the Zambrano, Marmol, Castro, Lee vein.
ETA
ETA is tough but probably late 2012 to mid 2013. he should spend all year at high A next year then depending on what he does in 2012 at AA will dictate when he gets the call. lee will not make an AFL apperance this year wouldn’t be surprised to see him next year though.
The best reasorce on IFA’s is probably baseball america but for most of that you have to have a subscription. If you google sometimes you can find good articles.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
Baseball America is well worth subscribing to.
If you subscribe to the print edition you get full access to their website, which has tons of great info.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Encouraging report
I know the overall stat line isn’t mind blowing, but the fact that he only improved as the season went on shows that he is learning and growing as a hitter. Realistically, a .282/.354/.351 slash line is not bad for a 19 year old with room to put on some muscle and drive the ball more.
I personally am more excited about Lee than any Cubs prospect except for maybe Brett Jackson, because he is absolutely the type of player the Cubs have needed for a long time. If Lee turns out to be a plus defender at SS who can lead off, get on base, and steal 30+ bases, I’ll be happy, even without much power.
Lee still has a high bust chance in my opinion
He has the potential to be a top leadoff hitter, but I still think he has a long ways to go as far as his hitting goes. It doesn’t look like he ever is going to hit for power (.068 ISO compare to Ryan Theriot career .074), but with his speed and defense if he gets on base enough he could be a nice player. He really needs to bring down his Ks (17.9% this year) and bring up his walk rate (8.9%) if he is going to get on base enough to be a good MLB player.
He's only 19 years old...
… is playing far from his home in an alien culture and barely speaks the language. He has played one short-season year and one full year in Low A.
Analyzing his numbers based on that and saying he won’t “ever” improve is just silly.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Who the hell said that?
Nobody said he can’t improve. All I said was that he needs to improve. As far as the power, if you want to make a case that Lee has 15 hr potential, be my guest. But you are going to be pretty lonely on that island.
As far as the alien culture and barely speaks the language crap, there are plenty of latin players that have the same issues and dominate. In fact, one that is only twenty-years old is doing it on the North Side this season. I have no idea why you are so in love with Lee.
Latino players have plenty of teammates who speak their language.
Koreans, not so much.
Geez, the kid is 19 years old. I’ve hardly anointed him as anything nor said I am “in love” with him, only that at his age, he can improve.
Your rejection of him is just as ridiculous as something you claim I have done, which I haven’t.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Ugh
I never rejected him. I just don’t think he is a top prospect, as in someone to get really excited about. And I would say talking repeatedly about moving a guy in the Majors who is 20 off of his position in favor of a 19-year old in low A ball, is pretty darn close to being in love with him.
Lee has Koreans on his team
Su Min-Jung (P) and Jae-Hoon Ha are both Korean. I am not cutting Lee any slack based on his nationality. Either he produces or he doesn’t.
If Koreans have such a hard time adjusting to playing baseball in the U.S. because of their culture and nationality, then the Cubs shouldn’t be giving them $700k bonuses and should spend that money on players from regions that have more of a track record of success in MLB. Lee had a fine season this year, and is a fine prospect. But, he does need to improve in some areas.
Of course he needs to improve.
He’s 19!
You seem to be claiming he won’t do this. At 19, saying a kid has a “high bust chance” doesn’t seem right.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I don't see what's wrong with saying that
Vitters also has a high bust chance. Lot’s of good prospects have high bust potential. It doesn’t mean Lee is garbage, it just means that I think there is a good chance that he doesn’t become a productive major leaguer.
Vitters has twice as many professional seasons...
… and twice as many minor league PA than Lee does. There’s a larger body of work to evaluate for Vitters.
I just don’t think Lee has done enough that you can claim “bust” when he’s never played above Low-A.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
re:
not to get involved in your little discussion here, but
a) All prospects in the low levels have a high bust chance. A statement like that will simply put, be right more often than not, and when you factor in his questionable offensive capabilities, it is certainly a fair comment to make. If the question is whether or not Lee has a high bust chance, I’d say yes.
In saying that …
b) Lee, for a player at his age, is probably safer than some because he plays a position where offensive production isn’t as significant and defensive capability is valued more, and after this season, there is no doubt that the defensive ability is there. That said, he has to develop some offensive capability to threaten, moreso than he is doing now, to have a shot at being a starter, and obviously, he needs more consistency, offensively and defensively.
Al please stop misconstruing what I am saying
First, I never said he couldn’t improve, as you claimed I did. Second, saying someone has a high chance of being a bust is not saying that he will be a bust. Lee is far away from the majors. Let’s leave it at that.
as the OP notes, Elvis Andrus is a good comp
Andrus first two seasons
8.6% BB Rate
15.9% K Rate
.071 ISO
average WAR/season – 2.4
2.4 WAR is a pretty good baseball player, especially when its cost controlled. I don’t think he needs to improve his peripherals at all to be good. To be GREAT, yes he’ll need to improve, but you can succeed as a great glove SS with those offensive skills
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Sep 11, 2010 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Fair point
2.4 WAR is a decent enough player. But, don’t forget that is basically what Theriot was for two seasons. I would like to see more players that have a 4.0 WAR upside in the Cubs system. I just don’t see Lee as an impact guy.
This isn’t really a comp (because of age, defense, speed), but in 2009 Theriot was at 7.5 BB%, 15.9 K% and a 2.4 WAR. Now, a team can win with 2009 Ryan Theriot + better speed and defense at shortstop; but that team will need to have other impact players. I don’t see those players in the Cubs system right now.
I am in the minority here, but I am just not that excited about Lee. He is a nice prospect, but he is probably currently our 2nd or 3rd best positional prospect. I would hope a team that should be trying to rebuild through the farm system would have more prospects whose upside is beyond a slap-hitting defensive middle infielder.
Re: Andrus
It’s also worth pointing out that Andrus posted a .295 /350 /.367 in AA at age 19. Basically identical numbers to what Lee is posting at 19 in low A .282/.354/.351 He was also Baseball America prospect #61, 65, 19, and 37 in 2006 to 2009. He was always a better prospect than Lee is right now. Not to say that Lee can’t become what Elvis Andrus is now, but I have my doubts.
also VERY young for their ages
you’re comparing Theriot in his peak years to guys like Andrus age 21 in the bigs. While Lee might not be an exact replication of Andrus as he’s one level behind, if he’s able to produce say a 2.4 at age 22-23 in the bigs, (same development pace as Andrus just a year behind), we’ll be talking about adding a little power as he matures and maybe becoming a low 3’s WAR player in his prime years
That’s extremely valuable during cost control
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Sep 13, 2010 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions
young for their ages doesn't make sense
should be young for their levels…
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Sep 13, 2010 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions
immature?
Chronologically inept since 2060
"I could be writing this crap!" -- Crow T. Robot
Me: Q: I can run but not walk. Wherever I go, thought follows close behind. What am I?
Wrigster A: Theriot
I wasn't comparing Theriot and Lee or Andrus
I specifically said that in my post. I totally understand it’s stupid to compare Theriot vs those other legitimate prospects. You seem to be agreeing with me though that if Lee is to become an impact player with apparently limited power potential he is going to have to push that BB% over 10%.
not agreeing with that
he can be an impact player in his prime years if he’s +12 runs defensively and his ISO jumps to over .100
as a 22-23 year old posting a sub.100 ISO, yeah its going to be tough to be a star
but how many stars are there at that age?
You’re judging his power when he’s young for his league and applying it to when he’ll reach the majors (when he’ll also be young). The power will develop (even mildly) in his prime years
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Sep 14, 2010 9:08 AM CDT up reply actions
+12 for a SS is great
If he can be +12 consisntently as a SS of course he will have a place in the league. That seems a little optimistic to me. As far as developing power, I haven’t read anything that projects him to develop power as he ages. Being a sub .100 ISO player even in his prime years seems a realistic projection. There is nothing wrong with Lee. I think he is a nice pospect that could be a very useful player. But, he isn’t the type of impact prospect I think this team needs. I want at least 1 Longoria/Votto/Bruce/Rasmus/Braun etc type prospect in the system and I don’t see any.
by JSB on Sep 14, 2010 12:06 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
This report
styles Lee as “more than a slap-and-slash hitter” who “has the raw power to hit around 10 home runs annually at the big-league level.” That may be a little generous, but we really don’t need him to hit 10 home runs a year. If Lee has the gap power the writer talks about, then he should hit plenty of doubles and triples considering his plus plus speed.
The home run is not going to be Lee’s game. However, he showed me some surprising pop to the gaps. Lee likes the fastball up, and if he gets a mistake pitch he can drive the ball with authority to right-center field. There’s not a lot of loft in his swing, but he’s going to rack up the doubles and triples. He has the raw power to hit around 10 home runs annually at the big-league level.
That's a very encouraging report
That might be the most optimistic scouting report I have read on Lee. And it’s from a guy that has decent credentials. Good to read. Hopefully Lee develops into that type of player.
by JSB on Sep 14, 2010 5:24 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't care if he ever develops power.
If he can get on base at a good clip, and run really really fast, and play good middle infield defense, we have an open spot for him.
In fact, even if his upside is “good field, decent slap-hitting speedy SS”, then he’s useful as an insurance policy against Castro’s glove at SS.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Agree
I don’t care if he ever develops power as long as he does those things you state. But, we should be aware of what we have here. He is a nice prospect, not a high-impact potential superstar.
How does he not have high-impact potential??
He has the potential to hit for a high average, get on base at a very good clip, steal 40+ bags with an 85% success rate and play GG caliber defense at SS….
And you’re not sold that he could be considered an elite SS? Just because he’ll likely top out with an ISO between .070-.090? You don’t need to hit 10+ HR to be considered a superstar.
Which SS in the bigs is a superstar with an ISO between .070 and .090?
If Lee does everything you say, he is a really good player, but not a superstar.
Active?
Don’t know your definition of “superstar,” but Ozzie Smith had a career ISO of .066. I think he qualifies as a superstar by anyone’s definition.
Omar Vizquel is active and has a career ISO of .081. Don’t know if you’d call him a superstar, but a lot of people (not me) think he should be in the Hall of Fame.
by Josh Timmers on Sep 14, 2010 1:09 AM CDT up reply actions
How good is Lee's defense?
I don’t think it is realistic to project Lee to be Ozzie Smith. He is probably the greatest speed/OBP/defense SS of all time. If Lee can even be Omar Vizquel, nobody will complain. But, is Lee’s defense really that good? Are we talking HOF level defensive potential? If that is true, then his bat doesn’t need to be nearly as good as I am asking it to be.
re: Defensive ability
Lee’s defensive potential does rank quite high, and higher than Castro’s (and it’s easy to forget that Castro’s defensive potential ranked high as well). HOF-level? Don’t know about that. He does have all the necessary athleticism and lateral movement needed to play short. He has a strong arm. It’s a matter of consistency.
that made me really curious to find out
how many shortstops that qualified (in terms of AB’s) actually had an iso below 0.090. Never pondered it before.
So far, in 2010, only 5 guys that qualify have below a 0.090 iso – (in order of higher to lower iso’s – data from fangraphs) – Orlando Cabrera, Erick Aybar, Yunel Escobar, Cesar Izturis, Elvis Andrus. this year, Escobar, Cabrera, and to a lesser extent, Izturis, have been good enough with the glove to compensate for their offensive limitations. Of course, the Orioles will probably spend another offseason pondering an upgrade from Izturis. the odd name in the list is Escobar, whose ISO was almost twice as high last year.
In 2009, only 2 qualified shortstops had an iso below 0.090 – Edgar Renteria and Theriot. In 08, that number was 3 – Ryan Theriot, Marco Scutaro, and Orlando Cabrera. In 2007, that numbers was 5 – Tony Pena, Mark Loretta, Rafael Furcal, Ryan Theriot, Omar Vizquel. Orlando Cabrera and Jason Bartlett were both close.
That said, in Lee’s defense, he should add a bit more power from simple development.
Atta boy Hakky!
Here be a video of Lee and Ha singing!
http://www.youtube.com/user/PeoriaChiefs#p/u/10/DFrmao2uILk
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
That's great
That whole “Hak-Ju Lee sings Superstar” thing started in Boise last year and the video kind of took off. Good to see Peoria continuing the tradition.
by Josh Timmers on Sep 11, 2010 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions
fufilling the defense up the middle as a strength is a path to WS contending
My question is could his ceiling be Vizquel or Ozzie Smith? There are many more ways to win than simply power and offense.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
and if his ceiling is that strong than
I could see moving Castro to 2B next year and establishing him there, because Castro is a strong offensive player and a good defender, not great…good.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Premature
What if Lee regresses or doesn’t hit enough to be an MLB-starting SS? Now you have wasted a year or two where Castro could have developed as a SS. Castro isn’t so bad that he can’t play SS in MLB. Let him continue to learn the position next year. 2B is down the defensive spectrum from SS, so you aren’t really hurting his development as a 2B by waiting to see if Lee will make him move off SS.
Lee is only in Low A right now. Still a very long ways to go.
yeah, of course
It seems like Lee has the defensive potential to move Castro over to second. I still really like Castro’s glove.
Could he?
Yes. He has that potential. Such lofty comps rarely come true, however.
Before he signed, he got hyped as “The Korean Derek Jeter.” All I can think of was that Jeter was the only American shortstop they could name, because that comp makes no sense. Once I got to see him play, I said he was nothing like Jeter and a lot like Omar Vizquel, so you and I are thinking alike.
by Josh Timmers on Sep 11, 2010 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions
+1
Vizquel is a name that kept coming to mind. Andrus and Lee’s scouting reports are so eerily similar.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
I think Andrus
is the better comp. That’s actually kind of a good thing, since Vizquel wasn’t really an effective base stealer until he was almost 30
by Josh Timmers on Sep 11, 2010 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't know Andrus but I do know defense and speed
The key to WS contending is always defense up the middle, not adequate defense but takeaway defense, consistent defense where you take away on base percentage. Castor is adequate defense but his game appears to be offense and 2B he could be the best in the game at that position. Lee if you say that he is that much ceiling defensively he could be that takeaway force on the infield. Byrd is adequate for now but to complete the triangle Cubs will need a real complete player out there with Colvin & Jackson on the wings, they could something, that and a better backstop.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Jackson
will likely have every chance to own CF.
Lee has a huge ceiling defensively, but he has a lot of work to do to get there.
work at producing results is the only path
IF Jackson at CF and he has the range, glove and smarts, than good…I trust Toons, Josh and Midget’s thoughts….I can only see the prospects once a year in Colorado and at the AAA level.
Next year again it will be early in May…bad weather and mid week.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
No...he actually...
does athletically resemble a very young Jeter. I made the comparison before I even heard the comparison was popular based on the little bit of video I’ve seen on Lee. He’s got the same kind of approach and mannerisms at the plate…It’s kind of the reason I’m a big fan of Lee. He’s a potentially very exciting talent.
Middle IF Being Settled
With Lee & Castro likely occupying the middle of the diamond, what are the chances that one of Vitters, Flaherty, or LeMahieu can successfully occupy 3b by ’12? In the likely event that Aram is gone after next season, it will be tough to replace him via trade/FA.
by Mmurton on Sep 11, 2010 11:39 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Vitters is a big question mark
He’s shown flashes of brilliance, but he seem very slow to adapt when pitchers change their approach or when he gets promoted. The injury that caused him to miss the second half of the season just throws another question mark on it. But it is possible if he comes back strong next season he could be playing 3B in 2012. I don’t know how likely that is, but it’s possible. I think Vitters long-term future is at first base, however.
LeMaheiu is a middle-infielder/utility guy. He’s got next-to-zero power. I don’t think you’d want him starting at 3B. Flaherty has a tiny chance, but his star has dimmed quite a bit this season.
by Josh Timmers on Sep 12, 2010 12:06 AM CDT up reply actions
Let's not write Lee in just yet
Let him iron out his defensive issues, along with trying to become more consistent offensively before penciling him in.
Don’t forget about Junior Lake, who could be shifted to 2nd or 3rd, and has the power to be viewed as solid at those spots if he becomes more consistent.
Junior Lake
Would love to see him translate his strong second half this year into a strong full season next year. I think I’ve read that at one time he and Castro were viewed as having similar upside, so maybe there is something more there that might come out. Wouldn’t mind having a 3B with a little speed too.
Answer at 3rd?
It would be very nice to see him fill the coming hole at 3rd, since Vitters seems to be more than a season away. When can we expect Lake to be ready for a callup?
by neifiisgreat on Sep 12, 2010 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions
I wouldn't expect a callup
before late 2012 unless he has a huge breakout. He should be in AA next year. This is the scouting report I read on him before. Sounds like he has lots of tools, but still needs lots of work, especially with strikeouts and base running. He was caught steeling in almost half his attempts this year.
Lake and callup?
Earliest is probably late 2012, but let’s wait and see on the AA transition first. Right now, I’d guess, for a best case scenario, of 2013.
to be fair
Lake’s upside was viewed as being higher than Castro’s.
That said, I simply want to see some consistency out of Lake. too lazy to go check out his numbers right now, but off the top, he had one hot month that propped up his numbers a bit. Some more consistency in performance would be a nice first step.
Lake had 3 pretty good months
.279/413/410 june
302/364/602 july
290/321/390 august
And while i’m not sitting here saying those are outstanding months aside from july he looked a heck of a lot better then he did the 1st 2 months. next year will really tell if those strides are for real.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
I really really like Lee.
Therefore I want the Jeter comparisons to be true.
2013 starting team...
3B – Vitters
SS – Lee
2B – Castro
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
RF – Tyler Colvin
CF – Brett Jackson
LF – Alfonso Soriano
Vitters hits like Ryan Braun, Lee plays like 1996 Jeter, Castro is a top 2B and Adrian Gonzalez is the monster bat. Colvin is Shawn Green. Jackson is somewhere between Sizmore and Edmonds. Soriano probably is still a good 5-6 hitter.
I think this is pretty obviously in the works.
When did Soriano become a good 5-6 hitter?
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
The Cubs aren't getting Adrian Gonzalez.
This isn’t a fantasy league.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
What?
Why the summary dismissal? He will be a free agent for 2012, the Cubs could certainly lay the cash out for him. Whether or not its a good investment is another issue.
by neifiisgreat on Sep 12, 2010 8:34 AM CDT up reply actions
Let me lay this out again.
The Padres have become a good team — if they make the playoffs this year, they will sell a lot more season tickets NEXT year.
Gonzalez is the face of their franchise and a big part of marketing their team to the Mexican part of their market. He’s a SD native. He will likely take a hometown discount to stay there.
My belief is that he’s not going anywhere and will sign an extension to stay in San Diego.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
so
Adrian is going to take, what, 30 million less than what he could get on the open market? I’m not sold on that at all. Maybe you are right. Maybe he is that much of a hometown boy. He may like being home, but unless the Padres come up with some cash, it’s going to be hard for them to be in the bidding.
And the reality, as the rumors have suggested, is that if Padres fall out of the race next year before the trading deadline, Adrian will probably be dealt, which would further diminish his chances of sticking around.
I don't think it's a sure thing
that Gonzalez stays with SD. He’s made no indications that he’ll take a discount to stay there.
The Padres have said they will not trade him this off-season, but might mid-season if they’re not in the playoff hunt next year.
Clearly, if he’ll take a hometown discount, he’s staying in SD. But I’m hearing he wants Teixeira money.
The problem for the Cubs is that the Red Sox want him really badly. I don’t know how we could outbid the Sox on the open market. Sure, we might be able to match them in a contract offer, but the Sox could offer more wins and national exposure.
by Josh Timmers on Sep 12, 2010 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions
He’s made no indications that he’ll take a discount to stay there.
Nor has he made any indication that he wants to leave.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I think he wants to stay
But I also think he wants Teixeira money. Something’s got to give.
by Josh Timmers on Sep 12, 2010 11:00 PM CDT up reply actions
I live just north of SD and listen to a fair amount of Padres
pre-game and post-game and the announcers have said repeatedly that he will NOT give a hometown discount. This may just be posturing to get the highest amount he can from the Pads but only he and his agent really know that. He is from here and is largely the face of the franchise. So who knows in the end as it is a business and money talks…
I suspect a lot depends...
…. on how he views the Padres playoff chances over the next few years.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
WOW...first Gonzalez is going to be 30 years old and 2, NL and DH
My thinking that projecting the lineup now is a parlor game that has to possess odds.
Yes one can plan…..and one can project based on raw talent and development progression. But it is my observation that MLB stars ascend very quickly, good players to role players come up in an evolution.
Two years ago Vitters was untouchable, now there are those who wonder if he will even get a cup of coffee. Colvin was all but written off as another poor draft choice until he wow’d everyone in spring training.
I like the odds that by 2012 there will be more players who have come up through the system. If I were Ricketts for a day I would invest more in development type coaching now like Jamarillo whom I think will really earn his pay with the young players (see Castro, Colvin and Soto).
And then there is the prospect of the DH coming to the NL in 2012 or 2013. Obviously that is where the Cubs can hide the Soriano issue.
To me again I am going to a place few have interest, defense up the middle. Catching is a problem, Soto is a good offensive catcher but now a minus on the backstop….could he be a better 1B? Would be healthier and hit even more at that position? Cubs do have three catchers who appear to be on the door step.
Josh and Toons say BJax is slated for CF? If DH then move Byrd to LF for his final year? Good plan.
Finally I like the competition at the middle IF, if Lee or Lake great…if Lake is moved to the OF because he is so good offensively great. If either are going to be a star they will be up by 2012 if not sooner.
But the bottom line is develop from within first and then fill in from the outside from a position of strength.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Jeez Al...
You kinda wrote that guy off for this reason…
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
And if not, he will be traded by the 2011 deadline to a team that will sign him to a new contract
So unless the Cubs’ minor league system matches with the Padres’ needs, Gonzalez is unlikely to wind up in Chicago.
The Cubs probably aren't getting
Adrian Gonzalez. There, I added a probably and took out the fantasy league comment so you don’t come across like a jerk.
DEJESUS!!!
Agreed
The Cubs would probably be outbid even if he makes it to the open market (I happen to think he will), but there is no need to be dismissive of people, its not like acquiring Adrian Gonzalez is some ridiculous impossible thing.
by neifiisgreat on Sep 12, 2010 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions
That would be a good team...
Vitters, Lee, Castro, Colvin,and Jackson stuff comes true
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
'I at least hope the Vitters,ect....'
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
Korean Military Service Requirement
One thing to note that I haven’t heard mentioned in regards to Lee, is that all Korean males have to serve I believe one year in the military before age 30. This is an issue that Shin-Soo Choo is trying to get worked out right now. I’m not going to sit here and say that baseball is more important than Lee’s duty to his country, but I would hate to lose him for a year to that. The government has made exemptions for athletes who win gold medals and such, so I wonder if there will be any talk of trying to get Lee playing on the Korean national team before too long.
Lee's got a while
before he has to worry about that. It’s two years. They don’t have to start military service until they are 28 years old, so Lee’s got 8 years to worry about it. Choo has run out of time on that, so that’s why it’s such an issue for him.
I suspect they’ll find some international tournament for him to play in. He’ll have two WBCs to play in. Also, let’s wait to see how the Choo thing is going to work. He’s not going to take two years out of the prime of his playing career for military service. He’s got options, like applying for US Citizenship. The ROK doesn’t want that to happen, so I bet they find some sort of compromise if Korea doesn’t win Gold in the Asian Games this fall.
Whatever happens with Choo will be a precedent for Lee’s situation.
by Josh Timmers on Sep 13, 2010 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Choo's situation certainly bears watching
considering the Cubs’ recent investment in Korean talent. I wonder if the requirement limited bonus sizes for Korean prospects or has scared other teams from investing too heavily in Korean players.
it certainly hasn't limited the Cubs bonuses there
They spent first round money on Jin Yeong Kim. Gave a lot of money to Kyung Min Na last year as well.
I have nothing to add to this discussion...
…besides to say thanks for having it. Really interesting stuff here.
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Bleed Cubbie Blue
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
Cubs By The Numbers
Cubs By The Numbers is a history of the ballclub by uniform number, but the biographies help trace the history of our beloved team in a new way. For everyone who's a Cubs fan, anyone who ever wore the uniform is like family. Cubs By The Numbers reintroduces readers to some of their long-lost ancestors, even ones they think they already know.
Click here to order your copy, available now!
Recent Stories in Chicago Cubs Game Threads
Recent Stories in Ticket Exchanges
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Eric Hosmer redefines the Baltimore chop with infield double (Video)
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
