Fangraphs on Geo's 2010 campaign and Lou's lou-sy use of him
Looks like fangraphs has picked up a familiar BCB theme. Why doesn't Geo play more.
over 1 year ago
KyCubsFan
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I'd love to hear
what Geo thinks about the way Lou has used/not used him this year.
A lovely story:
One day, long, long ago, there lived a woman who didn't whine, nag or bitch. That would be me....
But that was a long time ago and it was just that one day.
The end
Great article on Soto
and so true. Other than his stint on the DL and with his recent knee issue, there was absolutely no reason not to give Soto more playing time. Move him up in the line-up damn it. His numbers state the case. There is no rule that I know where a catcher can’t bat higher in the order. Look at the Twins with Mauer.
What they said is all true. Soto is so clearly the best offensive catcher in the game right now, it’s not even really that close. It’s amazing how far he’s come.
Then again, It was pretty obvious why he was primed to bounced back, he maintained his walk rate from last year, the strikeouts weren’t bad, and he got really unlucky in HR/FB%. You could easily see this happening.
The Cubs
finally develop stars in Castro & Soto at key positions and they sit on in favor of Koyie Hill and bench the other for making a rookie mistake…..@ the age of 20.
Even when things go right we find a way to mess it up.
woohoo! lets beat this topic to death some more!
by jesus christos on Sep 8, 2010 9:40 PM CDT up reply actions
next
time I’ll make sure you get your permission before I post.
I haven't been watching much - did they bench Castro permanently?
Seriously, what is wrong with teaching a young player to be better?
by Shanghai Badger on Sep 8, 2010 10:53 PM CDT up reply actions
When comparing "injustices", I don't even see how sitting Castro for 2 games
is anywhere near the sitting Soto for 2+ games a week he’s experienced this season. I don’t even think the Castro thing is an injustice at all, actually.
It isn't an injustice
And I can’t for the life of me figure why people think it is. Or why it’s abhorrent. Or stupid. They aren’t in any kind of a race, so what’s the big deal with sitting their “hottest hitter” for two games against an also ran?
by Shanghai Badger on Sep 9, 2010 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions
It was only two games.
A lovely story:
One day, long, long ago, there lived a woman who didn't whine, nag or bitch. That would be me....
But that was a long time ago and it was just that one day.
The end
I'm still wondering when "giving Castro a two-day mental health break"..
for forgetting the outs after playing 100 straight games or so became
“CASTRO BENCHED BY QUADE!”
Media hype, I imagine.. but I remember this was a minor ‘game note’ item when it happened.
by The Deputy Mayor of Rush Street on Sep 9, 2010 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions
Good article.
And the Cubs should be very pleased with his development.
We should’ve seen some of this coming before with last year’s subpar BABIP… but on the same plane, it would be reasonable to expect a small regression next year, based on this (from the original article):
His BABIP this year is a solid .320, 11 points above his career mark and 22 above the league average.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
League average should never be mentioned when talking about BABIP
11 points above career mark . . . he’s still young-ish and on the upswing of his career. Plus its only 11 points. I don’t know if I’d expect much of a regression based on that alone.
I'm not talking about falling off a cliff.
But they note his higher than ideal K rate and the slight kick in his BABIP. So if that falls just a tad, you still have a really, really good offensive catcher. Just maybe not the best offensive catcher “by far”.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
Lou's Gone, Right?
Just checking.
"When they signed Fukudome, I knew they were trying to get me fired". - Ron Santo, January, 2008
There are really 2 issues with the use of Soto
One is playing Hill too much earlier in the year, but that is a little mixed. A catcher really can’t play more than 120 games a year or his offense starts to slide – both in that season and over the arc of his career. No matter what the performance difference is, a backup catcher is likely to start 40-50 games a year.
But hitting a guy who is having the most productive offensive year on the team 8th while the 3rd hitter is batting .220 and the 4th hitter is batting .160? That is simply unexcuseable – almost like Lou deliberately didn’t look at the team’s performance stats when he made up lineups. And keeping Soto in 7th-8th doesn’t speak well for Quade as a manager.
You could understand batting Soto down in the order early in the season..
coming off last year, even a hot start would be weighed against ‘small sample size’. But to keep hitting him 8th after May, given Lee and Rami stinkin’ up the joint for two months? It was Lou giving deference to veterans (I think most of us would agree too much).
Quade had Lee already off the team, and is supposed to be more of a moneyball/statistics manager. Yet he’s had Nady and his .397 slugging pct. hitting cleanup as much as anyone in his brief tenure. Like Lou left a note in the desk about the first baseman has to hit cleanup rule.
by The Deputy Mayor of Rush Street on Sep 9, 2010 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions
Agreed on the batting order slots.
At the same time, Geo walks so much that batting him in front of a run producer would be a fine idea.
Also, Geo has started 91 games this year. He’ll probably wind up with 110 or so. Given the time he spent on the DL, this isn’t that low. 120-125 is about right for a starting catcher.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Quade's use of Soto is also baffling
On Monday, Soto hit cleanup. Coincidentally, that day he hit the game-winning HR in the 8th inning. The next day (a night game after a day game), Hill played. On Wednesday, Soto batted 6th, with Nady hitting cleanup.
Putting Soto cleanup (admittedly a very small sample size) paid instant dividends. Why not stick with it for a while?
by Jody Jody Davis on Sep 10, 2010 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions
So happy to see that stats back up
Hopefully next years manager will realize these things!
''"I always thought I was the most competitive person out there. I never thought I'd find anybody more competitive until I met him.'' Ryan Dempster talking about Ted Lilly
If he's truly
not great at calling a game (supposedly Lou’s reason for using Hill so much) maybe Soto could be moved to first.
DEJESUS!!!
As has been noted before...
… Soto’s offense is good-to-great for a catcher. At 1B he would be average or below.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I am not in favor of moving Soto, but he would be an above-average hitting 1B
Soto has a .395 wOBA this season. That would rank him 7th among full-time first basemen in MLB this year. The guys ahead of him: Votto, Cabrera, Pujols, Fielder, Konerko, Youkilis. Any way you slice it, Soto is having an outstanding season.
His defense at C is more than adequate to keep him there, and only enhances his value. However, to get him in the lineup more (assuming we don’t acquire a superstar 1B in the off-season) there would be nothing wrong with giving him some time there in spring training to see if he can hack it.
and we can erode all his value...
as keith law noted in his chat yesterday with regards to Buster Posey
michael (sf, ca)
theoretical question for you on the extra value scouts may add to a player due to positional value. i always hear about how SS, C, 2B, and CF are the most difficult positions to play. for instance, if the giants wanted to move buster posey off of C to 2B, would he still be as valuable to the team?
Klaw
(2:39 PM)
Less valuable, but still valuable. Playing him at first is like pointing a loaded AK-47 at your own foot.
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/34223
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Sep 10, 2010 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
DCF
The problem with your post…..
Is you are trying to use logic to explain why he should stay a catcher :) Where as it’s now popular to take every player and ponder if he could be at first
''"I always thought I was the most competitive person out there. I never thought I'd find anybody more competitive until I met him.'' Ryan Dempster talking about Ted Lilly
by Madison Cub Fan on Sep 11, 2010 8:59 AM CDT up reply actions
Three Issues
There really are three separate issues here.
(1) Soto’s starts: Soto has started 74.1% of games when he was on the roster this year. That really is about what you would want out of your starting catcher. Any more than that and the starter begins to wear down. Mauer has started 84% of games this season and a number of those are at DH.
(2) Soto’s place in the batting order: there is no doubt that Soto needs to be hitting higher in the batting order. I forget the exact number, but each spot higher in the batting order is worth something like 20 extra plate appearances over the course of a 162 game season. Batting Soto 4th instead of 8th would be the equivalent of giving him 20 more starts.
(3) Back-up Catcher: The Cubs need to have a better back-up catcher than Koyie Hill. Hill is really a terrible player. He is one of the worst offensive players in MLB and his glove is overrated. Wellington Castillo or Robinson Chirinos could be that guy, but unfortunately we will probably have to wait until next season to find that out.
That's particularly interesting about his playing time percentage.
So Lou gets the last laugh after all…?
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!
What the hell?
Was Lou playing some percentage game? This stinks as much as his obsession with left-handedness.
I think that any laughter from Lou at this point would be of the maniacal variety.
"Wait, are you saying I'm a sunshine-pumping, koolaid-drinking, Soriano-loving, rainbow-rising, unicorn-riding, double-clutching, Sweet Lou-backing, Hendry-supporting, hey hey whaddya saying, Cubs are going all the waying, glass is overflowing, Rothschild is all-knowing, Cubs fan? - ballhawk
wow!
one of the things that irked me about Lou was how he played Soto….after reading this, especially #2,
(if no one has any kind of rebuttal—-cause I sure don’t)) I am certainly feeling differently about that. thanks for the info, JSB
"Well-behaved women seldom make History"---Laurel Thatcher Ulrich
by cooliogirl47 on Sep 11, 2010 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Trying to understand Lou's reasoning.
I don’t buy the Lou-didn’t-care, or Lou-was-stupid arguments. Lou was clearly wrong, but I can’t believe he didn’t have some logic to his decision — even if it was bad logic.
I’m guessing Lou decided that Geo’s aptitude for taking walks with runners in scoring position was a detriment and/or he decided Geo couldn’t come through in the clutch. I’m deriving this from the comments on the FanGraphs story (not sure if Lou really said some of the stuff mentioned there) AND the fact that Lou seemed to take issue with MB taking walks instead of driving runners in.
Another mitigating factor: Lou might have figured that without turnarounds from Lee and Ramirez, the team was doomed, and both guys had better chances at turnarounds higher in the order. Meanwhile, Lou didn’t want to move Byrd (who was the team’s best offensive player in the first half) or Soriano (whom Lou pretty much concluded was too mentally fragile to move around in the order and produce).
All of that meant Soto couldn’t hit anywhere from 1 to 6 in the order, because Geo was never going to lead off or hit second. That left 7 or 8, and Lou would occasionally put a lefty bat (Fontenot) in the seventh spot.
Again, none of this is a justification of Lou’s horrible lineup management. But I wouldn’t be surprised if I’ve tapped into some of Lou’s strange and misguided thinking.
I’m guessing Lou decided that Geo’s aptitude for taking walks with runners in scoring position was a detriment
that didnt stop lou from using that guy that played RF in the 5 spot for most of last year
by jesus christos on Sep 10, 2010 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Actually ...
MB was hitting second a lot late in the year, especially after the blowup on the South Side, where Lou called him out for not being a baseball player. It’s possible it took Lou that long to come to his conclusion about MB.





















