MLBTR evaluates Cubs 2011 rotation
I don't really agree with much of this. Zambrano, if he continues to pitch well for the rest of the season, could end up as the No. 3 starter -- behind Dempster and Gorzo. It's been debated around here, but I think the Cubs are better off rolling the dice with Z than taking on another team's problem child (e.g. Oliver Perez). Anyway, if the Cubs trade anybody to dump salary, they'll trade Fukudome to open a spot for Colvin. At least, that's what I would do.
Meanwhile, I also don't see Wells and Silva as sure bets. Wells is no more than a decent No. 4 starter and I bet Silva ends up in the bullpen because of his conditioning/health issues.
If Z somehow returns to old form and finally grows up ... it could be one key to fringe contention for the Cubs in 2011.
over 1 year ago
elgato
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This rotation is a huge question mark for next year.
OK, Dempster is a sure bet. Z, for better or worse, is probably there. Gorzo is probably there. After that, I don’t know. Randy Wells is looking more and more like Frank Castillo every time out. Flashes of brilliance as a young guy to make you believe he’s the real deal, then gets shelled in his next two starts. He seems like a guy who has worked hard, but the league has simply figured him out. Since he’s not overpowering, if he can’t make some adjustments and really start locating and changing speeds better, he’s going to be gone. Silva started out winning 6 or 7 games without a loss. Since then, he’s come back to Earth big time. In my book, he’s not a rotation candidate for next year. Shark, very doubtful. Cashner, another huge question mark. Seems better suited as a right-handed setup guy to me. Not out of the question as a starter, but a long shot. Jackson, might make it, might not. Performed badly in a big game, high pressure situation the other day.
In my book, we need an ace (yeah, I know, who doesn’t?) badly. A true, reliable guy who you know is going to bring his A-game every fifth day. And we need some reliable options for the back end of the rotation. Not stars, but guys you can rely on. The Cubs need to acquire at least two quality starting pitchers this offseason, and that’s not even touching the whole bullpen mess, which needs to be completely rebuilt around Marmol and Marshall. And this isn’t even touching the offense, which has been, for lack of a better word, pathetic. Nor is it even touching the defense, which is one of the worst, if not THE worst, in the Major Leagues.
It’s really disheartening, when you really sit down and break down what we need, how bad this team really is. I try to stay optimistic, I really do. I never want to go into a season thinking the Cubs are incapable of winning the World Series. But I have to tell you, this is one of the most hopeless feelings I have ever had at the end of a season.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
I feel like the rotation isn't in TERRIBLE shape.
I see a #2 in Demp, #3 in Z (Who I am in favor of keeping as well), and #4 in Gorzo. I still think Wells can keep it together enough to be another #4 quality starter. What does that leave, simply your TOR guy. We all keep hearing Cliff Lee, Greinke, etc. Not sure yet how I feel about the legitimate chances of that happening, but I don’t see it happening yet. We have some options for another #5 option, moving Demp, Z and Gorzo up. Could be middle of the pack, IMO. Not what a team needs for fringe contention considering our offense. So do you try to invest in that ace or try and add to the offense?
Well, Cliff Lee likely isn't an option. The Yankees will break the bank to pay him.
So I would spend the money on Dunn (who won’t be THAT expensive), retool the bullpen and see if a decent mid-rotation starter could be had at the right price. If a LOT of things go right, maybe the team sneaks into contention with 85 or so wins.
Agreed.
Pretty sure I read Lee likes the idea of going and playing with CC again. I think you hit on something a lot of people underrate, and that’s the retooling of the bullpen. If we were to get a decent bullpen together with legitimate ML guys, we wouldn’t have to continue plugging holes with minor league guys that should still be in the minors continuing to develop. In a perfect world, we could have the rotation fixed had we kept Cashner, Shark, etc. in the minors starting.
I haven't really had time to build a hypothetical that I really want
Off the top, considering the high cost/improbability of adding a top of the rotation arm, if the intent is to try and scrape by and be competitive in 2011, I think
- I’d try to add a good, strong, innings eating arm as one of my top two priorities. Cub starters have averaged 5.88 IP/GS. For all the problems with the pen, the rotation’s inability to work deep into games has been as big an issue, IMO. Now, can’t be end of the rotation type. Otherwise, you hand Cashner or someone the keys and let them develop.
- I’d try my dang best to find a leadoff guy. One of the better scenarios I’ve been able to come up with is to see if Tampa will shop Ben Zobrist (not saying Zobrist is great, but he could potentially fill RF while providing leadoff ability). Problem is, that forces Tampa to potentially have to replace 2 corner OF spots (Crawford seems to be all but out the door), along with their closer’s role and 1st base. I don’t think Tampa is too willing to do that, unless they have some sort of incentive, such as someone taking a contract off their hands to give them some flexibility, someone like Matt Garza, who could potentially fill a pitching need.
Those would be my top two priorities. Of course, easier said than done, particularly in regards to finding a leadoff guy. 3rd on my list would be a big bat, followed by a setup arm. I think better pen usage, along with increased innings from our SP’s, would make the pen that much better (for example, minimize Russell’s usage against righties), and I would wait until late in the offseason, when there usually is an arm or two hanging around, before making a move for a pen arm. I wouldn’t attack the market looking for a guy.
Getting Zobrist ...
would add to our crowded outfield, especially now that Colvin doesn’t appear to be headed toward first base. I think the Cubs have to punt on getting a legit leadoff guy unless they can find someone to fill the role who can play second, making DeWitt a supersub.
I also hope the Cubs don’t overspend on mediocre relievers — though firming up the bullpen is an absolute must.
Hmm. I didn't know that.
Well, then, this is something the Cubs ought to explore. He’s coming off a down year, and he’s signed through 2013, due to earn $4.5 million, in 2011-12 and $5.5 million in 2013.
That’s remarkably similar money to what is due to one Kosuke Fukudome, and it’s spread out over three years. I wonder if Tampa would take Kosuke, some salary relief and maybe Randy Wells for Zobrist.
they don't have any need for Wells
With hellickson, McGee, Moore and others in the system.
Look, I was just coming up with a hypothetical, so I don’t want people to think that this possibility really exists. All that said, I don’t see them moving Zobrist (talking to people, some folks believe that he’ll find a balance in his power from 2009 and what minimal power he has shown this year) unless there’s a real good reason, such as clearing contract space that allows them maneuverability this offseason. My guess is that they would be more interested in doing something like Zobrist and Garza for prospects.
Again, just want to reemphasize, this is just a hypothetical. Nothing to support that this idea is even possible.
I know you were just spitballing.
But it was a good suggestion, IMO.
Well, the Zobrist idea isn't something I have thought of before,
But I would lean towards not getting him. He can play all over the field however, including 2B. From what I have seen, he has had a much tougher year compared to last, which could be taken as a warning sign or that he is taking his lumps now and will improve. Lastly, the Rays seem to have other options they are okay with playing, including Matt Joyce and Jennings in the OF, while Reid Brignac brings depth to their infield, so one could argue Zobrist is somewhat expendable. I would vote nay, but could see an argument made either way.
The fact that Zobrist is expendable is a GOOD thing.
And the fact that he’s having a bad year should lower his price tag.
Obviously this years performance helps some,
But the Rays are smart, and they know that Zobrist is very valuable to them as he can play everywhere, and still hits the ball well. I doubt the above package comes close to getting it done, and going much further scares me some. I may be being slightly biased though, as I don’t see Zobrist as a lead-off hitter, and that was how I read it above. Obviously, I’d love his bat for the right price, but I doubt we get that.
I'm curious why you don't see him as possible leadoff hitter
First off, he’s been the leadoff hitter in Tampa a decent amount this year (99 AB’s). He sees pitches (4+) per AB. He takes walks (14% this year, 15.2% last year). He will strike out a decent amount (20%) but you can sort of live with that (particularly since the roster currently doesn’t have great top of the order options). He runs the bases fairly well.
Last year was probably a fluke year in regards to power, but the rest of the skills are similar to the scouting report on him coming up in Houston. He also plays a solid RF. Not ideal for his bat in RF, but if you keep Marlon in Cf, then you somewhat compensate for the power, and if Ben untaps a bit more power next year, then it’s an added bonus.
I was getting that this is hypothetical, but definitely worth a good conversation.
Personally, I still want a real speed guy at the top of the order. Someone that can really put pressure on the pitcher as a constant threat to steal. I know they don’t grow on trees, and I know some people aren’t big fans of speedy guys that don’t bring too much else to the table, but I think Zobrist would be much more useful outside the leadoff spot. I think his power is going to be there, and he can be much more useful with some more RBI opportunities. Just my thoughts of course.
I understand
the sentiment, but if the organization doesn’t get a better top of the order guy, I just don’t think there’s a real legitimate chance of believing that this team can really push for a playoff spot in 2011. The makeup of the team, IMO, makes it urgent, if the team is intent on competing in 2011, that the organization find a way to “create” offense on a more consistent basis, for lack of a better term.
Now, those were my priorities. I mean, if it’s me and the intent is to compete in 2011, and I have to shop Colvin, so be it. He’s not that good to make me hesitate.
All that said, if you are asking me what the organization will do, I’d say that early money is on adding a big bat and a pen arm, as you suggest.
I like your idea a lot, actually. I just didn't know Zobrist could play second.
I agree with you on Colvin — if the team is dead set on competing in 2011. But that’s not what I think they should focus on.
I want the Cubs to make a couple precision moves that will make next year’s team better, more fun to watch and possibly a fringe contender. An 85-win season and a team that’s in the hunt until late in the year could do a lot to keep the stands full. But I want the precision moves to also set the table for 2012. Zobrist would fall under that umbrella so would (IMO) signing Adam Dunn for a reasonable deal.
The Cubs should keep Colvin because he’ll be a cost-controlled, No. 5 or No. 6 hitter who plays right and hits left for a few seasons. I doubt he’ll ever be an All-Star, but under team control, he’ll be worth keeping for a few years.
And I didn't realize Zobrist was going to be 30 next year.
Maybe not worth acquiring. Could be another Chad Tracy.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Zobrist's age might be a concern.
But Tracy hadn’t been good for several years, whereas Zobrist appears to be 1 year departed from solid numbers. I don’t think the comparison is on target.
thing is
if we did make this hypothetical move, i wouldn’t be hoping for power. I’d be looking for his discipline and base running capability. The former has been a part of his scouting report since forever, and it’s not something I’d be concerned with. He doesn’t have great wheels, so speed may be a concern, but I think he should be solid enough. Power would only be an added benefit if it came back.
Wait, I thought you said this deal was a certainty! Where's this hypothetical talk coming from?
Just kidding. I think it’s funny that you keep couching this as a hypothetical, toonster. :)
it is a certainty
don’t you know?
in all seriousness, i know you know, but i’ve had enough experiences on sports boards to know that there’s a chance someone is going to misread things.
toying around with my "it's definitely going to happen" idea
So, the Rays need to cut costs, but they also aren’t likely to “rebuild”, so they will be looking to fill holes. Their areas of concern would be OF and 1st, along with middle of the order power. Desmond Jennings will probably be given every chance to take a spot. If we’re trying to pry Zobrist from them, that means BJ Upton is likely to stay put for another year, as there’s no way they would consider replacing 3 starting OF’s. (Now, might they ponder trying to shop BJ to try and keep Carl, while giving Desmond the CF job? That might be something to ponder if they can create enough flexibility, although it doesn’t really impact the discussion here at the moment).
They can trim some costs by removing some pen arms, but that probably won’t trim enough to allow them the flexibility to make other moves. Their likely contracts to move would be someone like the aforementioned BJ Upton (could see him at around 6 mil next year) or Matt Garza (estimated have him around 5-7 mil next year as well).
This would open up another hole, but just spitballing something like,
Marlon Byrd (scary to think he’ll be 34 next year) and prospects (say, Jay Jackson and Welington Castillo)
For Matt Garza and Ben Zobrist
Just spitballing. Again, you only make this type of move if you are trying to compete in 2011, otherwise there’s no point.
For the Cubs – Garza, IMO, is overhyped, but he’s a solid mid-rotation arm who chews up innings. A rotation with Dempster, Z, Garza, Gorzelanny and one looks fairly solid. Zobrist becomes a possible leadoff bat to take over in RF. The Cubs add anywhere from 2.5 (quite unlikely to be this low) to 6.5 mil to their payroll, but for the short term, they are markedly improved, IMO. They should have enough to make a run at an Adam Dunn type (they can also trim some more, by non-tendering some guys). May make it difficult to add pen help, but you wait and hope for a bargain. Giving up Jay Jackson would hurt, but you have enough upper level arms to take that hit, and a good organization has to know when to take a chance. They may ask for Chirinos instead of Castillo, but you can probably take that hit and add a Clevenger onto the 40 if you wanted to. Seems like a lot to give up, and on performance for 2010, it is, but young arms are overvalued, and Byrd is going to be 34. Does open a hole in CF, though.
For the Rays – Garza and Zobrist will likely cost around 8-12 million (Garza being an arb guy makes this unknown at the moment, Zobrist comes in at 4.5 million for 2011). Thus, they save money with the swap. They have Hellickson to step up and join Shields, Niemann, Davis, Price, giving them a heck of a solid rotation. This gives the Rays a stopgap OF in Byrd, while as noted, they have the arms to step in. If they clear a pen contract or two, that gives them enough to make a run at some sort of decent-solid first baseman and to go after a cheap closer. The middle of the lineup is improved with Byrd in it as well. If their system has a big hole, it’s at catcher, where Luke Bailey struggled. Adding an upper level catcher could allow them to cut Dioner Navarro, giving them more flexibility. I could see them go after Chirinos, who has a better shot of profiling as a starter, but I’d hold firm. Jay Jackson offers them a good, upper level young arm that might be able to compete for a pen job, and may be someone that could be a late inning arm for them.
I say the Cubs go after Zobrist, but not Garza.
Assuming Zobrist isn’t on the decline, he’s somebody who can help the Cubs in 2011 and beyond.
thing is
I don’t think the Rays will move Zobrist unless they get some additional benefit out of it, such as clearing significant enough salary to allow them to make other moves.
side notes
I think I’ve expressed this before, but I believe a full rebuilding year would be best, but I don’t believe that will happen. Now, I don’t know if this will be a full bore, go after it push. I wouldn’t be all that stunned if they made cursory moves to sell the idea that they weren’t giving up on 2011, but in the back of their minds, was planning for 2012. After all, all indications are that Hendry sold Ricketts on a plan for the future, as much as for the present.
What do I mean by this? I could see a situation where they target a 2nd tier first base bat, a couple pen additions, and a middle-tier arm. It wouldn’t break the bank, but it’s enough to say that, with a little luck, with Aramis healthy, that the organization might be able to sell the potential of being competitive without giving out big money/long term deals.
For example, instead of Adam Dunn, maybe they go after a Carlos Pena, Lance Berkman, or Lyle Overbay.
Ben Zobrist came up as a shortstop in the Astros system. He probably had a chance to stick at short in a slightly better than Theriot way, but the Rays acquired him (along with the since traded Mitch Talbot) for Aubrey Huff and didn’t need him there. He’s got a fairly strong arm and has filled out a bit, but he can probably still go into the middle infield if need be.
For example, instead of Adam Dunn, maybe they go after a Carlos Pena, Lance Berkman, or Lyle Overbay.
What a colossal waste of time and money that would be. If you’re going after those three, might as well keep Xavier Nady. Pena, Berkman and Overbay are all awful.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
i don't disagree
i’m just saying that I think there’s a chance that they make moves to not make moves, for lack of a better way of saying it. We know, or at least, there has been speculation, that Hendry sold Ricketts on the future, on the farm. I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up avoiding long term and/or big commitments this offseason.
I think you're saying ...
that they would be wastes of money at the price tags that you expect, and that they’d expect. And you might be right. But with those three, Dunn, Konerko and possibly Derrek Lee on the market — and with many teams locked in at first — maybe somebody like Berkman could be had for a song?
A song is more than Berkman is worth
He’ll be 35 and his power numbers have fallen off the table. He’s done.
colvin a 5 hitter?
He’ll be a 6 hitter in his best season in my opinion.
by cubsforever on Sep 17, 2010 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
Curious as to the interest in Zobrist
You note a couple of the peripherals that give him some potential as a lead-off guy, but what about his career numbers??
Part of what made Zobrist “fun” last year was just how out of the blue his performance was. He’s still an okay player, but it kind of looks like this season is closer to the “real Zobrist” than last season was.
I’m by no means saying he’s a terrible player or acquiring him would be a disaster. I also kind of wonder where he plays… unless you use his versatility to play him as a DeRo-like “super sub”, giving him 3 or 4 starts a week in RF (necessitating a move of Fukudome or Colvin), and another 1-2 at 2B/3B/1B.
If you’re going to leave RF open as a possibility and want a lead-off guy, why not make a run/splash at Carl Crawford?? He could play CF or RF (and live with the limitations of his arm) with Byrd in the other spot. I realize he’ll probably go to NY or LAA, but I’d make a run at the elite guys like Crawford and Cliff Lee before exploring these other possibilities.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
On this hypothetical
Just to restate, I’d only ponder this if the intent is to try and compete in 2011. Otherwise, there’s no point in giving up prospects.
His performance was out of the blue last year, and talking to folks, no one really expects that type of power again, although some do expect his power numbers to bounce back a bit. I strongly believe that, if the Cubs want to try and contemplate competing in 2011, then they need a leadoff hitter more than a middle of the order bat. They need both, actually, but they need the ability to create/manufacture runs.
I know his career numbers, and I wouldn’t trade for him expecting power. Ever since he was drafted and in the Astros system, Zobrist’s discipline has always been considered a positive. There have been some changes, but if I deal for him, it would be because of that discipline, something which I don’t think is leaving anytime soon. That discipline was still there this year. I’d put him in RF (arm is solid there) and let him be there for the most part.
This isn’t an ideal move, but if we want to add a top of the order hitter, it’s going to have to be in the OF. Trading for DeWitt took away the only other open option to find a leadoff hitter.
If the Cubs have the ability to go after Crawford, then by all means, go for it, and don’t make a trade. I can live with the bad arm in RF. I have long been a big Crawford fan, but I do worry that Crawford is one of those guys whose productivity will drop off rather fast, and I would be cautious about the years and how much money is committed.
Oh I saw that it was just hypothetical.
But you did note that you thought it was one of the better options… which makes the potential lead-off hitter pool rather bleak.
I really like Crawford… but he is showing some signs of wear and tear. Four years is the furthest I would consider going and that probably won’t get it done.
Any other trading possibilities that intrigue you?
Any chance of shifting ARam to 1B, DeWitt to 3B, and finding a 2B to lead-off? Then you could go with something like this: ____ 2B, Castro SS, Byrd CF / Colvin RF, ARam 1B, Byrd/Colvin, Soto C, Soriano LF, DeWitt 3B, P. Not intimidating… but not bad.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
As noted below
I can’t really come up with any other great leadoff options for the OF that might be available to us. Part of the problem is that we really only have one spot to place a leadoff hitter, and that’s either CF or RF.
On Crawford – I don’t think, me personally, that I’d give him 4 years straight. But as you note, it’s likely going to take 4, if not 5, to get it done. I’d be more willing to do a 3 year deal with a higher AAV, but this is probably Crawford’s only chance to nab a huge deal, so he probably will want security.
I’m not against pondering other ideas such as shifting DeWitt to 3rd and Aram at first, considering DeWitt is a more natural 3rd baseman, but
a) Don’t think Aram is going to receptive to that.
b) I really don’t see the Cubs going with DeWitt’s bat at 3rd
c) Who do you go after at 2nd?
I don't have any other great ideas either.
Which is of course the problem. The Cubs have just about bottled up all the spots for a lead-off hitter.
I was only kicking around the ARam shift since DeWitt’s D at second is shaky (more of a nature 3B, I believe) and I don’t know if he can keep up what he’s done with the Cubs.
The team probably wouldn’t go for DeWitt at 3B, but I’ve never bought into this “you need power at the corners” thing. You need power somewhere, sure, but it shouldn’t be tied to positions. If DeWitt were at 3B and you had “lead-off guy” at 2B, you’d still have power at all 3 OF spots, 1B, and C. That should be enough, I would think… especially with DeWitt and Castro not being totally devoid of pop.
But I don’t think ARam would move anyway, so it is probably a moot point.
The Cubs will probably have to go with a non-traditional lead-off hitter for yet another year.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
I still wonder
if the best route for the Cubs to take, relative to the lineup, for 2011, is to simply stay with the status quo and revisit Colvin to first base. Colvin at first isn’t ideal, but Fukudome in RF isn’t the worst idea out there this offseason. I don’t really think Fukudome/DeWitt are top of the order guys, but really, it’s not like there are a lot of great options out there. Fukudome does have a pretty low BABIP out of the leadoff spot, IIRC, for this year, and his K rate, in the leadoff spot, wasn’t that bad, I think (not great either, 17% or 18%). Find a “timeshare” guy (don’t want to say straight platoon) for Colvin/Fukudome (now let’s see … Kosuke has some trouble against lefties, that Jeff Baker fellow hits lefties fairly well) and rotate Tyler to some OF duty.
It isn’t pretty, but I’m not sure it’s nearly as bad as the chorus of boos that would probably happen if the team did follow that route with the lineup, and I’m not sure that the team has the flexibility to make moves to create a lineup that much better than this. The added benefit is that we wouldn’t be committing money long term, something any FA addition would likely cause (even if it’s only for 2012).
I agree.
That may well be the best path. I just don’t see anyway the Cubs would do that… because they will of course feel the need to “do something” or make a “splash” in the shadow of this dreadful season.
I’m quietly hoping the Cubs will go get Cliff Lee as their big addition and more or less stand pat for one year with the offense.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
They won't.
There’s no way they give Cliff Lee that kind of money.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Which is too bad.
Because the other “make a splash” options are probably bad ideas.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
wow
over at mlbtr, they indicate that Peter Gammons noted today that he thinks Crawford will get 7 years, 140 million. If Gammons is right, pass. I like Crawford, but heck no on a 20 mil AAV and 7 years. Let some other team take that hit. IMO, that’d be a Soriano-ish contract in it’s idiocy. Give me James Adducci (I’m kidding) instead. Geesh, that would be ridiculous. 7/140? No wonder talk in Tampa is that they have no interest in really pushing hard after him.
If the Yankees go after him, that might make Brett Gardner available. I would loathe the idea of going after Gardner (still don’t believe he’s that much better than Fuld, if at all), but it would be a fit and fill a need. That said, my guess is that the Yankees pursue Cliff Lee hard first, before pondering OF options.
Yeah.
That sure better be a “no” from the Cubs if it is 7/140. No way.
If he’d bite, would you go 3/45 with a team option for another year at 15?
Shut up Joe Morgan.
me personally
if the Cubs can free up the budget, and that is somehow his best offer, yeah I’d ponder it, if the intent is to compete in 2011 (if not, then don’t even bother with a contract that could cause problems down the line, just as contracts are starting end). I doubt he’d agree to a straight team option, though. I’d have to know what the payroll is to be able to determine yes or no. Maybe he’d ask for some trigger clause. 4/60 for him just sounds like it could be a bad idea, perhaps as soon as 2012.
Realistically, assuming Gammons is wrong, I’d think that it would at least take a 4 year deal with an easily attainable fifth year.
guess i didn't really answer the question
or maybe this is just an add-on, but the reason I brought Zobrist up is that I haven’t been able to come up with a semi-known quantity that could potentially fill the leadoff role that seems like a possible acquisition. There might be a surprise or two that pops free, but the list is fairly short on semi-known quantities that could potentially leadoff that might be attainable, IMO. Now, maybe you go after someone and they have a lucky season, which is possible, or the Cubs gamble on a youngster, which I don’t see.
Early morning thoughts
I think Wells is fairly safe. There were definitely some positive signs this year. Looking at the numbers on fangraphs, his slider was sharp and strong this year, which probably explains the increased K rate this year, while his fastball and changeup had issues, the former probably explaining his increased BB rate, particularly as the season went on. I have no idea what happened, but his bread and butter was supposed to the 2-seamer, so maybe an offseason of work will help out. A cheap arm that can give you around 6 innings each start (20/29 starts he went 6 or more, only 3 starts less than 5 innings, with one glaring one that skews his IP/GS from 6.11 to 5.90) and be fairly solid at it is tough to give up unless it is as a part of a trade.
I’d still like to see Silva get moved. Granted, he’s not that much older than Wells, so Wells being a cheaper guy may be easier to move, but I’d like to open up one rotation spot, whether it is for a youngster or an outside addition. That said, Z is going to be hard to move, Dempster probably isn’t going anywhere. Unless they go out and add a lefty starter, Gorzelanny is probably fairly safe. Silva only has 8 million left (2 million buyout in 2012), but teams may want to check the medical reports on him. I think some teams may still have some doubts as to whether or not he can repeat his performance this year, but if the medical reports check out, I think there should be some interest, particularly if the Cubs pick up a couple million.
Most importantly, whoever the pitching coach is, whether it is Larry Rothschild or someone else, needs to figure out a way to tighten our guys control. We’re tied for last in terms of BB/9, at 3.75 (tied with our lovable division rivals in Houston and Milwaukee). The SP walk rate is at 3.32, while the pen walk rate is next to last at 4.75. Thankfully, they can K some guys, otherwise our season would be far more painful than it already is (3rd best K rate in the bigs, granted, a huge chunk of that is Marmol, but the SP are tied for the 4th best K rate). If the SP’s tighten up their walk rate a bit, that lets them work deeper, which will ease the pen burdens. It’s somewhat disappointing to see that out of the 8 arms that have worked as starters this year (sure feels like more), only 2 had a BB rate below 3, and one of them is the departed Ted Lilly. Heck, only 3 of them have below a 3.5 BB/9 rate. If Dempster/Zambrano/Gorzelanny can tighten it up a tiny bit, we’d be that much better off.
Re: Silva
I kinda doubt any team will take him. His medical problems happened late in the year, and we’re not just talking about a strain or a pulled muscle. The time to deal Silva was probably in July, and now I think we’re stuck with him.
Re: Re: Silva
I am not so sure that Silva isn’t a tradable commodity. He is owed “just” $8M more from the Cubs. Let’s imagine that Hendry was willing to throw in $2-4M in the deal, that brings him into a very reasonable price range with the Cubs eating a manageable amount of money.
Eamus Ursuli!
your probably right
which probably means Wells gets shopped. That said, I don’t think it’s impossible, although it might be unlikely. Really comes down to what the medical reports look like.
Silva's contract
Pretty sure this is what you meant, but just to clarify for others…
Silva’s base in 2011 is $11.5M. Seattle is paying $5.5M of that, leaving $6M due. In 2012 he has a $12M base or a $2M buyout.
So the total due is indeed $8M, but when the money gets spent is a tiny bit more spread out (that buyout doesn’t come until after the 2011 season).
But I agree… I’d send $2-3M with Silva and send him on his way.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
Yep.
And IF he pitches well the last 3-4 starts, a team like the Padres or Mets might be interested.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I'm not sure I take that bet.
I think he could be dealable, and I think the Cubs will try. But it’s no guarantee.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
He'd probably do well in a place like Petco
but financially, I’m not sure the Padres make that move if they bring back Jon Garland, and I’ll be a bit surprised if Garland tests the market (unless the Cubs make this a no-brainer move for them, say, eat 4 million or more). Granted, it is a mutual option, so you never know. That said, the market’s going to be inflated with a lot of end of the rotation types this offseason, at least, from early indications.
Nats could maybe use a bookend to Livan Hernandez
But I feel the Cubs will have to eat more than half of the guaranteed money from Silva’s contract if they want to move him.
And speaking of Garland, how about bringing him back if the Cubs are unable to make the huge splash? Dempster-Z-Garland-Gorz-Wells with Shark and Archer in the wings? Also can we bring back Kerry Wood to mix with Cashner at the end of the bullpen? He seems to have gotten it together since joining the Yankees.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Sep 15, 2010 10:49 PM CDT up reply actions
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