FanPost

Why I'm optimistic about Garza.

 

This is just a crude group of stats that I’ve put together to look at the Garza trade.  I’m basing this on AL East to NL Central move from Ted Lilly and applying it to Garza.  I know this won’t accurate, but it helps me believe the Garza trade will turn out alright.

Ted Lilly from ‘04-’06

IP

BABIP

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR

‘04

197.1

0.27

35.10%

10.00%

4.06

4.5

4.6

3.3

‘05

126.1

0.30

36.70%

13.90%

5.56

5.32

4.74

0.7

‘06

181.2

0.30

37.70%

12.10%

4.31

4.79

4.52

2.3

AVG

168.1

0.29

36.50%

12.00%

4.64

4.87

4.62

2.10

 

This is Garza from ‘08-’10

IP

BABIP

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR

‘08

184.2

0.278

41.70%

8.40%

3.7

4.14

4.48

2.9

‘09

203

0.284

39.70%

10.20%

3.95

4.17

4.21

3.2

‘10

204.2

0.279

35.80%

10.00%

3.91

4.42

4.51

1.8

AVG

197.1

0.28

39.07%

9.53%

3.85

4.24

4.40

2.63

 

This part is where I take the AVGs of both players and compare stats prior to the move to the NL.  The last line is to show the percentage of Garza over Lilly.

Player

IP

BABIP

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR

Lilly

168.13

0.29

0.37

0.12

4.64

4.87

4.62

2.10

Garza

197.13

0.28

0.39

0.10

3.85

4.24

4.40

2.63

%

117.25

96.33

107.03

79.44

82.99

87.13

95.24

125.40

 

These are the totals for Ted Lilly for his time with the Cubs and Dodgers at ages 31-34.

IP

BABIP

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR

‘07

207

0.272

33.70%

9.70%

3.83

4.16

4.31

3.6

‘08

204.2

0.283

33.60%

12.10%

4.09

4.41

4.14

2.8

‘09

177

0.27

31.90%

8.70%

3.1

3.65

3.98

3.8

‘10

193.2

0.259

29.50%

11.10%

3.62

4.27

4.16

2.3

AVG

195.1

0.27

32.18%

10.40%

3.66

4.12

4.15

3.13

 

This is the AVG gain moving from AL East to NL Central for Ted Lilly.

IP

BABIP

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR

116.19%

93.13%

88.15%

86.67%

78.82%

84.65%

89.77%

148.81%

 

Using basic math I now use Garza/Lilly to project against Lilly’s Cubs/Dodgers stats to find what Garza would be based on this.  This is what I come up with to what Garza could be on the Cubs.  Also, remember that Garza will be 27 on opening day entering his prime whereas Lilly was 31 on opening day in '07.

IP

BABIP

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR

‘11+?

229

0.26

34.44%

8.26%

3.04

3.59

3.95

3.92

 

Now keep in mind, this is very crude on my behalf just using percentages and what not.  If anybody can do a much better job, please do so.  Please go easy on me!! :)

 

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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