Cubs 2011 MLB roster payroll appears to be settling at $130M
With the signing of all the arbitration players except Carlos Marmol whose bid is now at $5.65M (to the Cubs $4.1M counter), along with estimated bonuses and signings of non arbitration eligible players plus a Reed Johnson the 25-man expected roster appears to be around $130M (or a drop of 10% or about $15M, per Sun Times) and a $5M cushion from the published $135M self-imposed budget limit. What does this foretell or indicate going forward?
The season should offer more opportunities for young players as in both Jacksons, maybe McNutt and maybe another dark horse or two?
Fine....what this season really offers is the retirement of 4 significant contracts and 3 others; Aramis Ramirez's $14.6M, the Carlos Silva's (nee Bradley's) $11.5M (minus $5.5M from SEA), Kosuke Fukudome's $13.5M, John Grabow's $4.8M and Jeff Samardzija's $2M. Add in annual stuff like Kerry Wood's $1.5M, Reed Johnson's expected $1M (+/-) All told that is $44-45M....
That would reduce the 2011 expected $130M payroll to $85M or so before any future FA efforts. The map appears obvious, removing liabilities to seek either Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez (if BOS screws up)---meaning they will have the money to play big while seeing what their farm system can produce.They could sign Pujols to $30M and still reduce payroll overall.
Looking forward following 2012 Cubs can retire Marlon Byrd ($6.5M), Carlos Pena ($5M), Ryan Dempster ($14M) and Carlos Zambrano ($18M) or another $43.5M or a total of $87-$88M in two years, leaving only Alfonso Soriano's $18M lump and of course producing system players in arbitration or multi year signings on the payroll through 2014.
What I am seeing is that the Cubs will probably continue to reduce payroll 10% per year as in this year going from $145 to $130M but adding a key player or two as free agents while bringing up the farm system players. Therefore next year look for payroll to be about $115-120M even with a big splash In 2013 they could even sign a big name front of the rotation starter and still drop payroll to $105-110M. And the same holds true for 2014, they find a way to relieve themselves of Soriano, still sign another needed player and drop the payroll to $100M, which is where I think the club is headed towards. The trick will be for the farm system to continue to produce players who ascend up to the big league club and contribute like Soto, Castro and Colvin. The big stars will still have to be acquired but hopefully not the entire roster.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Please don't call up McNutt
in 2011. He won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft in December. Summoning him to the big club would start his Arby clock and keep him sidelined (likely) during the strike of 2012.
While Brett Jackson is ‘in the same boat, his callup may be more excusable. Neither is listed on AZPhil’s list of player’s eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Jay Jackson, fine. Chris Carpenter, okay. BJax, try not to. McNutt, no way.
WTF??
What I am seeing is that the Cubs will probably continue to reduce payroll 10% per year
you cannot come to such a conclusion based on this one off season alone. most of what you write is well done, but that last part saying that this is a sign that the Cubs will do so again and again, sorry, it seems like nothing more than the typical bashing of Hendry / Ricketts as cheap blah blah blah…..
Chronologically inept since 2060
Q: Why did Chuck Norris cross the road?
A: Ditka
I'm
a Hendry basher (usually), and I think Ricketts is more concerned with profits than the success of the baseball team, but I agree it’s ridiculous to extrapolate what next year’s payroll might be based on this year.
DEJESUS!!!
I'm
not a Hendry basher and I think Ricketts is more concerned with paying down the $500+ million in debt that they took on to purchase the team.
"Easy on the words, brother,'' Quade said.
by RiskyBusiness on Jan 24, 2011 10:20 AM CST up reply actions
i think this season he is letting a lot of contracts roll off
so there is a fresh slate to start with
Chronologically inept since 2060
Q: Why did Chuck Norris cross the road?
A: Ditka
It's Ivy Walls...
… he can do whatever he wants. Rarely does the blogosphere see someone like him trying to pen serious that are so inane, and then he never comes back to actually answer the criticisms. Its time to start looking at his work as purely satire.
by dmlichte on Jan 23, 2011 9:19 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
glad you speak so authoritively about the blogosphere
but you can make your points without the personal attacks…of course that might be too much to think through
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Ivy...
we’ve long since past any semblance of legitimate conversation on any of your posts. You create these ridiculous diaries chocked filled with false claims and outrageous assumptions and then you never respond to anything that anyone has to say. Its become a joke… so why not try actually reading some of the comments that people post to your diaries and actually responding to them.
who is we?
and in this post what outrageous assumptions are present …
do you have a position or committee or multiple personality….
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by the multiple personality thing was a joke
seriously….as whenever someone speaks for the many it is their own opinion…it is a joke
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
This would be considered an outrageous assumption
What I am seeing is that the Cubs will probably continue to reduce payroll 10% per year
You are assuming a 10% decrease per year until overall they see about a 33% drop from the 2010 payroll? There is no reason to assume that and no evidence provided to back such a claim
and multiple people pointed this out, with no response from ivy Walls
Chronologically inept since 2060
Q: Why did Chuck Norris cross the road?
A: Ditka
I agree with the sentiment
but it’s always ironic and fun to see someone make grammatical errors while criticizing someone else’s writing.
DEJESUS!!!
Ridiculous.
It’s January, maybe you should wait and see how McNutt performs before you decide when he should get the call. I’m not saying he should be called up at some point in 2011 for sure. But if he has a strong showing at AA/AAA, and the IF the Cubs are in contention late in the season, why not call him up in august or September if he could help the team. I sure hope the Cubs haven’t already decided when they will call up Trey McNutt. As for the rule 5 draft, you don’t have to be added to a MLB roster to avoid being picked, just on the 40 man roster.
by Dcr18 on Jan 22, 2011 6:01 PM CST via mobile reply actions
If we're in contention
then it’s different.. I hope (though I doubt) that to be the case.
And he nor Brett Jackson
will have been in the minors long enough to be Rule 5 eligible. Which is why they shouldn’t be frivolously called up. They are exempt next time around.
I don't think that the Rule 5 draft is really applicable in any case.
There is a lot of fat that could be trimmed from the 40-man with zero repercussions.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
nice take on the key questions of the season..
I think you fire up all the big questions, except for the biggest one – how will the big guys produce this year? This team is built on expected success of guys like Soriano, Ramirez, Zambrano, Fukudome, and Dempster. Before the “they suck” brigade comes out, remember that while they mostly didn’t play up to their contracts, they don’t suck. Dome and Sori both were north of 800 OPS and showed signs of improvement from previous years, Z had the best ERA among SP’s, and ARAM was hurt too much again. The point is that all of these guys are still good MLB baseball players capable of good years, and for good or bad, the 2011 Cubs will go as these guys go. Perhaps they’re overpaid, but they don’t suck
On the payroll front, it’s not just being cheap, but recollecting resources after some bad contracts. If the RIckets don’t spend when they have some room to, we can call them cheap, but reducing payroll and moving from Lilly, Lee, and Gorzo to Garza, Pena, and a new prospect is a net positive.
by DisCUBbobulated on Jan 22, 2011 11:20 PM CST reply actions
my thought is that Cubs have to divest before spending
they spent before because the system couldn’t retool even sub super star players….
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
"Tyler Colvin, if he is healthy may indeed improve in that the trauma of almost losing his career and his life may have kept him focused in the off season."
.
And if he hadn’t had the injury he wouldn’t have been as focused on improving? Huh?
Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team
Pretty goofy comment from Ivy
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jan 23, 2011 9:47 AM CST up reply actions
never know but sophomore slumps do come commonly
just ask Geo and Randy
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
I agree about Castro
"Playoffs?!" -Jim Mora
by Castro Por Presidente on Jan 23, 2011 11:53 AM CST reply actions
Slow clap
The following sentence is truly a masterpiece. Six or 7 thoughts in one.
With the signing of all the arbitration players except Carlos Marmol whose bid is now at $5.65M (to the Cubs $4.1M counter), along with estimated bonuses and signings of non arbitration eligible players plus a Reed Johnson the 25-man expected roster appears to be around $130M (or a drop of 10% or about $15M, per Sun Times) and a $5M cushion from the published $135M self-imposed budget limit.
It runs on and on and on and on...
I couldn’t find the subject for the longest time due to lack of commas.
C'mon now...
There’s a comma hidden in that paragraph/sentence.
Add three more, make sure they're hidden as well, and you know what you'd have?
A Boy George song.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Take another look.
There are two commas in that blockquote.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
It has commas
But the commas don’t separate the subject of the sentence “25-man roster” from the rest of the clauses so it looks like it’s still part of the “along with” portion.
You know it's January...
…when we’re diagramming Ivy Walls’ sentences.
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!
I really don't understand why anyone
thinks we have any kind of chance of signing Pujols. It’s just not happening in this universe. Not. Happening. Ever.
by SouthWabashSoul on Jan 23, 2011 5:23 PM CST reply actions
Best line of the whole missive..
Blue mountains high .. Blue valleys low
I don't know which way we shall go ..
One summer dream .. one summer dream ..
coda
ELO, 1975
"Is Darwin Barney the next coming of Paul Popovich?"
Blue mountains high .. Blue valleys low
I don't know which way we shall go ..
One summer dream .. one summer dream ..
coda
ELO, 1975
The key
to reducing the payroll will be if the minors can produce ML ready players. I think they are on the right track with what they have. But jumping from the minor leagues to the majors and in quanity is a tough nut.
Is it April yet?
precisely that is the reality, only time will tell
but it appears this is the plan, spending money is a reaction to a plan that didn’t work and why the current locked in roster is in place.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
locked in roster?
how about we see who makes it out of ST. the roster is not locked as you state
Chronologically inept since 2060
Q: Why did Chuck Norris cross the road?
A: Ditka
Reading between
the lines, I think IVY means that the Cubs are heavy in contracts that are locked in place. Not the opening day roster, which of course is not locked in place
Is it April yet?
I agree with the substance of this post
which is that large percentages of our current payroll will come off the books in the next two seasons. That coupled with our young contributors and hopeful prospects should combine to give us a lot of flexibility if we want to sign a big free agent or two the next couple of offseasons.
I just want to throw this prediction out there into the blogosphere
After dealing Napoli for Francisco, I think there’s a very good chance Toronto deals Jason Frasor to the Cubs before the season begins. Return would be someone like Grabow, to even out dollars, and a decent Cubs prospect, to even out value.
No one should be untouchable on this roster unless his name is Eliot Ness...or Starlin Castro.
Hm.
Well, much would depend on the identity of the prospect. I wouldn’t want to give up anyone of value for a reliever — though it would be nice to add Frasor. In fact, that would give the Cubs a very strong bullpen.
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!

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