Andrew Cashner projections
by SenorGato on Jan 24, 2011 1:56 AM CST
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What do you guys think are legitimate projections for Cashner this year?
Some food for thought:
http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails.aspx?playerid=8782&position=P
Fans of other teams projected him to throw for less innings, less K's, slightly more BBs, and both think he'll give up the HR.
CAIRO projections:
http://www.rotochamp.com/players/Player.aspx?PlayerType=Pitcher&MLBAMID=488768
57 IP/48 K's/26 BB's/4.42 ERA/1.44 WHIP/3-3
I think if he wins the 5th spot right out fo ST, which would be awesome, he'll look something like this:
175 IP/170 H/120 K's/65 BB's/1.35 WHIP/20 HR/5.68 FIP
I'd really prefer to see it this way when i think about it, so F doing a "Cashner starts the year in the minors" projection.
Thoughts?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Meh...
Both Latos and Verlander threw over 180 innings the season after their cup of coffee…Cashner and Latos having a bigger cup than Verlander did (11 IP).
But both Latos and Verlander were starting in the minors IIRC
Cashner has been a reliever until earlier this year. That would be a major innings jump from his high.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
A FIP over 5 means he won't get that many innings
I expect him to start the season in extended Spring Training or at Iowa, for a few starts where they can limit his pitches while he works on his changeup. Then, by May, to join the Cubs’ rotation for most of the rest of the year. I also expect him to put up an ERA+ of about 110. As he reaches 150 innings or so, they’ll put him in the bullpen for the rest of the year.
No one should be untouchable on this roster unless his name is Eliot Ness...or Starlin Castro.
As much as I want Cashner in the rotation...
…I can’t help thinking this may be the way to go, too. Get/keep Cashner stretched out as a starter in Iowa, get as much as you can out of Silva and then move Cash Money into his spot when the time is right.
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!
by daver on Jan 24, 2011 9:08 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
This all day.
What I’d like most is a definitive plan.
If he’s going to be a starter… fine. Then he probably needs to start in Iowa to stretch out and get used to relying on his secondary pitches the second and third time through the line-up.
If he’s going to be a reliever… fine. Then he starts in the pen with the big club as the #2 RH set-up (behind Kerry, of course) and needs to focus solely on FB command and sharpening one breaking pitch. At least for now, ditch all the other secondary pitches. And I would hope the projections in the OP would be a bit conservative.
Given the success Cash was having in the minors, I hope they would give him another shot at starting as he is one of the few Cub youngins’ with the raw stuff to be a #1 or 2 starter.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Yeah, I feel the Cubs organization...
…would be doing itself a disservice if it failed to give Cashner a fair opportunity to develop into a starting pitcher — which may mean starting the season at Iowa this year given the logjam at the bottom of their rotation.
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!
It isn't just the logjam, the 2010 edition of Cashner needed at least one and maybe two more pitches to be a MLB starter
I am also in favor of seeing if he can develop those pitches. But if he tries to do that in Chicago, he is going to have a lot of short outings.
bingo
Let Silva, Coleman and Samardzija fight it out for the 5th spot, so there is no need to rush Cashner into the rotation. He has had only 5 starts in AAA, he still has a lot to learn I bet.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jan 25, 2011 7:47 AM CST up reply actions
A Mike Harkey 1990-style year as a starter...
173 IP / 153 H / 94 K / 59 BB / 1.221 WHIP / 14 HR / 12-6 W-L / 3.26 ERA
"Elder White! Look at the talent on those Cubs!" Harry Caray, KMOX Radio, 4/22/62
"And you have to wonder – What's the matter with Broglio?" Harry, KMOX, 5/24/64
Very confused.
You want Cashner to put up a 5+ FIP? How would that be good for his development? As zambranofan points out, if he pitches that poorly, they’d probably demote him to the bullpen — maybe for good.
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!
Yes,
I want Cashner to put up a FIP over 5.
And why’s he pitching poorly? The FIP is the FIP, not his real ERA, and it’d be his first season as an ML starter. He’s still projected, in the same projection, to throw up a 1.35 WHIP and around 6 K/9, 3 BB/9, and 1 HR/9…it’s actually a projection that I thought I was very conservative on since I’m extremely high on Cashner.
i dont think you understand what FIP is...
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 24, 2011 12:51 PM CST up reply actions
Yes, but you don't think I know anything.
I apologize if my comment makes it seem like I don’t value FIP enough. I just used a basic FIP formula with the basic projections I made in the post (though I didn’t project HBP and IBB).
Also again, I went conservative with pretty much everything there…except maybe/probably IPs.
FIP
is basically what the pitchers ERA would be without fielding
hence the acronym: Fielding Independent Pitching
an FIP above 5 would represent a pitcher whose true level of performance is similar to a pitcher with an ERA above 5. Wanting Cashner to have an FIP above 5 would essentially be saying you’d want him to be like… one of the 3 worst SPs in all of baseball.
Last year there were only 3 guys with an FIP above 5
Rodrigo Lopez
Brad Bergesen
Dave Bush
In 2009 there were 4
Braden Looper
Trevor Cahill
Jeremy Guthrie
Joe Saunders
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 24, 2011 1:04 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand again:
I just used a basic FIP formula with the basic projections I made in the post (though I didn’t project HBP and IBB).
Also again, I went conservative with pretty much everything there…except maybe/probably IPs.
I’m sorry if you think I disrespected your little play things, and I fully understand how bad a FIP over 5 looks. I just ran my predictions…that I freely admit to making up…through the basic formula added the usual 3.2 and posted that number. It is nothing more, nothing less. You put the value you want to put on the number I threw out there…I do not hold it in such high regard that I steadfastly believe that reflects the type of pitcher I think Cashner can/will be.
Again, a young pitcher in his first full season who can throw up a 1.35 WHIP over his first full season isn’t someone to sneeze at. I freely admit I went low with the K’s, especially since I think his offspeed stuff has the chance to be outstanding.
Oh, and please try to be more condescending next time. I didn’t quite get enough there.
apologies
if i’m coming off as condescending, i’m trying my hardest not to.
When someone says they want a player to have an FIP over 5, its the equivalent of saying you want a hitter to post a sub .700 OPS or in conventional baseball thinking terms… to hit .230. It shows a lack of understanding of the tool you’re using. I did my best to explain the tool above, so you’d have a better handling on how to use it in the future.
In addition, you calculated the FIP incorrectly….
The formula you picked up, i’m assuming from Hardball Times, is as follows:
(HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)3-K2)/IP, and then add a 3.2 league adjustment on
Using your projections that would give us:
(20*13+(65)3-1202)/175
260+(65)*3-(240)/175
260+195-240/175
1.22857 + 3.2
~ 4.43
not 5.68….
You’re citing WHIP as a good indicator of why you’d be happy with the performance and throwing out the FIP; presumably because you don’t understand how horrific that FIP is, which is what i’m trying to explain to you
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 24, 2011 3:23 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Hmmm....
so I did my math wrong. Thanks for correcting it…4 AM isn’t really the best time for math really….must have subtracted 240 from 195 during step 3. All the better then…4.43 is much more indicative of what I think of his talent level and a very solid number for a first year SP.
I’d love to see where I said I look forward to this 5 FIP or w/e the hell it is you think I said…But first, Kind Sir, I do thank you so very much for resisting all urges to remain non-condescending…I truly am blessed to have you teach me how to know baseball!
look above
Yes,
I want Cashner to put up a FIP over 5.
And why’s he pitching poorly? The FIP is the FIP, not his real ERA,
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 24, 2011 4:19 PM CST up reply actions
Lol.
All these brains and you can’t detect sarcasm? Should I give it some kind of numerical value?
Many good young pitchers will outperform their FIP…or at least it seems that way….It’s not uncommon.
i guess i have a hard time detecting it
when the lack of understanding is consistently embedded in your discussion surrounding the statistic.
like AGAIN with this comment:
Many good young pitchers will outperform their FIP…or at least it seems that way….It’s not uncommon.
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 24, 2011 5:09 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Well...
sucks for you. Maybe you should work on what I’m saying rather than trying so hard to show how everything you say is above and beyond me. It’s funny, but makes me feel like I should have come on less strong…Oh well, I guess I’ll play this role you’re trying to hand me….deeeeeeerrrr wutre statiticss?!??
Not how I was reading DCF at all
For what it’s worth.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Maybe you're being a little too conservative.
With those numbers, I doubt he’d last in the rotation very long. Looking at Fangraphs, however, I do see that his ERA outperformed his FIP last season.
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!
Being too conservative...
in this case I did it to make the season more fun. Everyone seems so down on 2011 I thought I ‘d join the fun…If Cashner got 175 innings I think we’d see more than 120 K’s.
Again, I have a hard time understanding how...
…a pitcher putting up a 5+ FIP would make the season more fun. But, in any case, I think we are in agreement in that we’re both excited by Cashner’s potential and want to see him snag a spot in the Cubs rotation long-term.
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!
But if he pitches like that, he will have a lot of 3-4 inning starts and get pushed into the bullpen
Quade is going to be trying to win games – he is not going to keep a pitcher with a 5-spot in the rotation, “development” or not.
Does anyone else feel
Cashner is underrated? Granted last year was the first time he pitched in the majors, but he pitched awesome right out of the gate. Obviously he will have to develop more than just his fastball if he starts though.
On a side note, I think him and Kerry look very similar…I feel like they easily could be brothers
Did he really pitch that well out of the gate?
I haven’t looked at his gamelogs, but I seem to recall Cashner having a lot of control problems early on in the season and that he settled down a bit toward the end. But maybe that’s just my fuzzy memory at work.
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!
His ERA was really inflated by two really bad games
back to back 6 run games in july made him look worse than he was. Outside of those two game he would have a 2.89 ERA. Once he gets his secondary pitches down with some better control he could be a TOR guy
Yes to the underrated question.
The guy’s got the mos talented arm in the organization right now. He’s got the chance to have the best fastball, breaking ball, and even changeup (eventually if he remains a starter). The size and athleticism are pretty much prototypical to be a SP.
I’m very optimistic on Cashner in the long run.
"Prospect" status
Had he not pitched in Chicago last season he would be more widely praised at this point.
It is funny, there are very few articles or lists generated regarding the players coming off their first or second seasons.
For better or worse, there are prospects writers and there is of course plenty of ink for the established big leaguers.
The Cubs chances in 2011, however remote, will hinge one the success of guys making strides from raw rookie years (Castro and Cashner).
Eamus Ursuli!
Sickels is always good for something on second year players and young guys...
I was reading his Garza piece this morning and surprised at how much one year changed the perception of Garza. Sickels seemed to be a big fan.
I mentioned Cashner amongst the prospect talks this year and got turned down because he’s not really a prospect. He’s a guy who’s more proven in the minor leagues than the major leagues, but he’s got big time major league upside…sounds like a prospect, right?
Completely agreed…2011 is a year of growth for alot of guys on the ML and obviously in the minors…if guys like Cashner show they can do it big at the ML level then this team can really make some noise in 2012 and beyond….I’d say beyond is more likely unless we actually land a 1B.
Let's hope they stretch him out in AAA for a few weeks.
But if the Cubs allow him to throw 150+ innings in the bigs, I see more K’s than you guys are projecting. While I doubt he throws 170 innings, I think he’s capable of punching out 140-160 unlike Harkey. A lot of that will depend on the development of his CU.
by renocubfan on Jan 24, 2011 10:56 AM CST via mobile reply actions
"Stretch him out"
I don’t really get this line of thinking. Isn’t that what ST is for? If Cashner is one of the top 5 starters in ST, he should be in the rotation.
I do agree that the Cubs need to make a decision on his long term role. A late season call up moving a starter to the pen is fine, but if the Cub brass decides he is a starter moving forward, I would hope he doesn’t set foot in the pen before September.
Eamus Ursuli!
The "stretch him out"
is related to building up his arm strength in order to sustain the rigors of being a starting pitcher.
In 2009, Cash set a career high with a total of 100 IP. If the Cubs think his future lies in the rotation, they did him a real disservice by putting him in the pen last year.
Most pitching development people view a yearly increase of 20 innings as the best/safest way to build up arm strength. So relying on Cashner to throw as many as even 160 innings, at the major league level to boot, would be perceived as somewhat “risky” for the health of his arm.
That’s why some of us would like to see Cashner go to Iowa as a SP where there are no W/L consequences to monitoring his innings.
Of course this all comes with the caveat of being a very inexact science.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
nitpick
the yearly increase number is closer to 30-35 that most orgs are comfortable with, kind of built off of the “verducci rule”
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 24, 2011 3:24 PM CST up reply actions
Ugh.
Thanks, DCF.
I didn’t think 20 looked right, but it was the number that was stuck in my head.
Still, he threw 100 innings in 2009 and under 111 last year between three stops. So even getting to 160 innings would be a big jump.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
It would be nice to see a reliever not have a sophomore slump
Other than Marmol, I really can’t think of anyone from our system who was consistent in the bullpen. Even Marshall had ups and downs his first few years.
So you're saying you'd rather see Cashner stay a reliever?
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!
Right now, yes
I know he is meant to start but that still seems logged in 2011. I’m so tired of this team losing so many close games due to the bullpen. So as long as Cashner can be solid as a 7th inning guy I think that would be his strong suit for the year.
The fact is, a rotation is Dempster, Garza, Zambrano leading the way will be enough if the team can score runs this year.
you sacrifice some of the potential to be a starter
which is more valuable than a reliever
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 24, 2011 2:40 PM CST up reply actions
To be a starter in the bigs,
you need to gradually increase your innings pitched in minor league seasons. If the Cubs put AC in the pen in 2011, it becomes doubtful he will ever be a legit full-time big league starter. Certainly, if he pitches less than 150 innings, that pushes back his starting development.
Barring injury or immediate contention by the Cubs in 2011, there seems no need to see him get his innings in Chicago this season. That is, if the desire is for him to be a starting pitcher.
No way he gets 175 IP with a 5.68 FIP
I am hoping he throws a 140 IP between AAA and the MLB club depending on how he does in spring training. I think a FIP in the mid-4s would be nice.
FIP in the mid-4s would be great...
and probably closer to what he actually does.
I’d like to see more than 140 IP on the year. That sounds weak for a 24 year old 1st round pitcher going into his 3rd full pro season, and 4th overall, even though I know he’s not supposed to pitch any more than that or he’ll get injured.
his career high
is 111 IP
instead of thinking it as a 24 year old 1st round pitcher, think of it in terms of what his arm is accustomed to.
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 24, 2011 3:26 PM CST up reply actions
Exactly
I forget exactly what the max innings that you are supposed to increase a young pitcher’s workload, but I think it is around 20 IP a year.
I fear that the Cubs will end up in contention and Cashner will throw too many IP this season.
IIRC
I’ve heard 40 the most…20 is such a weirdly low number when you think about it anyway….Your fear is the same I’m sure Padres fans had for Latos last year until it actually happened….these kids and men are not numbers and really regurgitating numbers from others who STILL came to nothing truly conclusive isn’t all that significant….unless you choose to make it so.
Also, when do you stop adding the 20 innings?
If we work at this rate Cashner becomes a 200 IP starter at 27/28…that’s fine and yet not to me…
Going back to a couple guys I looked at when I made my projects...
Verlander in ‘05, his only MiL season, threw ~130 IP…the next year he jumped into the 180’s.
Latos threw 122 or so innings in ’09….jumped to 180+ in ’10.
Phil Hughes threw over 90 more innings last year than in ’09….
What they’re “supposed” to do vs. what happens is a whole different story, and it’s going to be very hard to limit such a talented arm to 140 innings if you really want to stretch him out and turn him into a real starter.
some guys are exceptions to the rule
Verlander is one of them, and he was considered one of them coming in because of a heavy workload in college and his ability to hold velo late into games
Latos, the Padres were desperately trying to limit his innings last year but fell into contention and then were pressed to start him. He was HORRIFIC after he crossed the 30+ IP jump. Now that could just merely be coincidence but his last 35 IP in Sept was a 5.66 ERA, which was when he surpassed 150, which was the level the Padres originally planned for going into the season
Hughes had thrown 146 IP in the past before (in ’06), so the 176 he threw last yr was in the window of 30-35 IP increase
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 24, 2011 4:28 PM CST up reply actions
What rule?
It’s not even close to a conclusive study….Latos last year did tank in his last 35 IP…but he was still the kid they tossed out in the last game of the season, his stuff was still there, and he a really strong start (9/7) along with 1 reallysolid starts (10/3), and one more pretty solid start (9/28).
The 146 IP Hughes threw 4 years beforehand made it OK to go from 86 IP to 176 in a year? I guess, but I would also argue that no, it doesn’t. Even then, the year he threw 146 was a 60 inning increase from the previous year….
This doesn’t even touch that Cashner has yet to show that he’s not part of the “exception to the rule” group.
The 175 IP was an overprojection for the sake of conversation starter, but I’d like to see Cashner get at least 150 innings this year.
the "rule" is the verducci rule
its been debated about widely and even in some circles has been disproven
however, it is something that most orgs tend to follow. In general most orgs tend to limit the IP increase to 30-35 above their previous high as they believe its a better way to gradually increase arm durability
i’m not saying the rule is hard and fast and that Cashner can’t ascend beyond it. I’m simply stating what most organizations have done in recent years.
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 24, 2011 4:48 PM CST up reply actions
Organizations want to keep their young arms healthy...
and THAT is what the Verducci rule helped promote. Beyond that, it’s just yet another number in the cesspool of numbers we have to play with and ponder over.
As long as Cashner holds up physically I don’t care how many innings he throws. If he’s tired or fatigued in anyway it should be fairly easy to spot, and the Cubs can take the measures they would take for such a situation. Hell, Hughes was moved from the rotation to the bullpen in ’09…maybe the Cubs do something similar but different.
Hughes in '09
that’s exactly what zambranofan suggested above
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 24, 2011 5:00 PM CST up reply actions
Sorry sir,
I’ll credit him right away sir.
Sorry for stealing your idea Zambranofan. There’s so much for little ’ol me to learn!
So anyone who has managed to get over
the FIP projection long enough to make their own projections?
our site hasn't come out with our projections yet publically
so i’ll hold back for now.
i’ll say that i think you’re light on the K’s, light on the BB’s, very heavy on the innings, ballpark on the FIP
In addition any projection on Cashner would be vastly different (not just on innings, but on skill) dependent on role. If he’s in the pen his peripherals should be stronger than if he were starting
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 24, 2011 5:03 PM CST up reply actions
Some more projections
I wanted to launch off of Cashner’s minor league stats. I was surprised to be reminded that he has only pitched in 43 games (!) in the minors. Overall, his walk rate decreased from 2009 to 2010, his K rate increased, and his hits per inning stayed about the same. His claim to fame in the minors was not giving up home runs. As many discussed above, I expect him to get about 20 starts this year, then go into the pen for the end of the season.
As a starter:
20 G, 8-6, 3.85, 122 IP, 107 H, 110 K, 62 BB, 9 HR
As a reliever:
20 G, 1-2, 3.23, 28 IP, 30 H, 34 K, 13 BB, 2 HR
Total: 150 IP at an ERA+ of about 110.
No one should be untouchable on this roster unless his name is Eliot Ness...or Starlin Castro.
The 20 start limit is why I would rather see him start the year in Iowa to keep his innings in check early
What happens if when his 20 starts are up, the Cubs are hanging around in the division race? Will they really send a solid starter to the bullpen and give up on contending? Not a chance. So, if the team is actually good Cashner winds up at 30+ starts and 190+ innings, gradual build-up be damned. Or he falls off in his last 10 starts after too much work, gets bombed and helps the team fall out of contention.
Innings totals count all innings pitched at all levels...
If he has a limit, say, of 150 innings this year, if he pitches 50 in Iowa, that means he’s only available for 100 in the majors. There isn’t anything like a “start limit,” it’s an innings limit to make sure they aren’t putting too much strain on his arm too quickly.
That's exactly what the Yankees did with Hughes.
I assume that’s exactly what the Cubs would do.
I’m sure that’s what the Cubs wished that they’d done the last time they had some good young pitchers.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Very reasonable projections...
I like them better than the ones I gave, and I like the plan better too.
Why make a big deal about innings when its about solid mechanics
Strasburg was babyed but ended up straining his arm. Not saying we should let him rack up 200 innings but i like Nolan Ryans philosophy on pitching.
bullpin and spot starter like yall said break him in slowly
by Starlin_Castro_for_MVP on Jan 30, 2011 7:49 PM CST reply actions
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