The Chicago Cubs 2011 Draft: Strategy, Player Profiles, and , My Thoughts.

I know SenorGato made a post for the 2011 draft but I felt I wanted to get more in depth with a post since the college season will be getting started soon. We hold the #9 overall pick and a 2nd rounder that should land somewhere around 70 in an extraordinaryly deep draft. So 2 of the top 100 players should land in our system. The Cubs took a step in the right direction in an underrated 2010 draft. With our 2nd rounder we went after a 1st round talent (Golden) and a couple of late round (7th and 12th) H.S. pitchers who were considered tough signs but with considerable talent. Wells and Reed cost us a mere 650K.

This is a trend that needs to continue especially after losing 4 of our top prospects. The byproduct of holding the #9 overall pick alone should finally push the Cubs over the 5 million mark for dollars spent in the draft. While many have critized the Ricketts thus far for being cheap, I applaud the restrant shown in not trying to throw around a lot of money on FA just for the sake of it. They have said they will put more money in player development. The 2010 draft budget may very well have been already set so I give them a pass there.

They did give Szczur 1.5 million to buy him out of playing football so that is very encoraging.(Update: The Cubs also just spent 1.5 million on 2 Cuban defectors). So while some are already passing judgement on ownership I will hold my opinions untill I see what is spent on the 2011 draft. As stated above we should break the 5 million mark if for nothing else then holding the 9th pick so I will be looking for us to spend 6 million. If we break the 7 or 8 million mark I will dance a jig.  The Phillies top 3 prospects were picked as follows; Dom Brown 20th rd. (200k), Johnathan Singleton 8th rd. (200K), and Brody Colvin 7th rd. (900K). So for a mere 1.3 million dollar investment in late round tough signs they netted 3 elite prospect. We would be wise to follow this blueprint.

Now I am very intrigued by Daniel Norris, a lefty with a 92-96 mph FB, power CB that may be plus, and an advanced CU for H.S. arm. This is a high end arm that would also fill a need, TOR LH SP. Many say that taking H.S. arms is to much of a gamble.  While I agree it is slightly higher of a gamble it's not what many make it out to be especially considering when you hit with high end H.S. player it can payoff big. I will say with a good senior season he may be asking for a 5.5 million dollar bonus ala Jacob Turner circa 2009 and if we don't want to put all of our eggs in 1 basket per say I can see the prudence in this.

Now if we don't want to take the risk to spend this type of money on a 1st rd. H.S. arm I can see the argument. What we need to do then is target 3, 4, 5, 6-10, round H.S. arms. The T.B. Rays have shown a blueprint for this. The Rays have drafted as follows: Wade Davis (3rd 2004), Jeremy Hellickson (4th 2005), Jake McGee (5th 2004), Nick Barnese (3rd 2007),  Matt Moore (8th 2007), and Joe Cruz (30th 2007) to name just a few. Add in James Shields and that's 3/5 of their 2011 staff (Davis and Hellickson), future closer (McGee), an elite prospect who should join the rotation by 2012 (Moore) and 2 excellent prospects (barnese and Cruz). This is just to name some. This again is a blueprint we would be wise to follow.

Some feel that H.S. arms are 2 volitile but if you take a H.S. arm like these there are some benfiits. To start you can limit their IP early, get them on your oprganizations throwing programs, and maybe the biggest is to start teaching them the CU which even at the college level is normally lagging.

 As it stands now, baring injury,  Rendon, Purke, Cole, and Springer (now Goodwin) will surely go before the Cubs pick at 9. I touched on Norris above so that's 5 maybe 6 of the 8 picks before the Cubs. Now of coarse things could change from now until the draft but I'm not even sure a poor 2011 for the 4 (5) college kids would drop them much considering past performances and tools.

The teams drafting ahead of the Cubs like the Royals, O's, Pirates, and Nats have been agressive in the draft and have shown they will throw a ton of money into the draft. With the Dbacks holding the #3 and #7 overall may see them take a less talented player with the 7 because of the price to sign 2 high picks. So potnetially we should land 1 of the top 8 players in the draft.

I pieced these scouting reports together from 2 years of Cape Code reports (PG), BA Cape Code reports (2010), and a variety of other things I've read on the web. Please note that I've done the best I can at finding accurate SR and am in no way saying this is the final book on these players. Also note that it was much harder to find scouting reports on the H.S. talent thus why they are slimmer in content and aslo considering they don't fit Wilkens 1st rd. profile so I spent less time on them.

College

OF. Jackie Bradley - S. Carolina -

Switch hitter who fits Wilkens mold of safe college bat and may be the pick. His most impressive tool is his near 80 arm (on the standard 20-80 scouting scale). Has good CF range but may profile better as a RF. Not a true burner but has above average speed and was 10-13  in SBO in 2009 on the Cape. Has good bat speed and makes consistent contact. Has yet to show anything more then gap-gap power but a wrist injury in 2010 may have sapped his power potential. May develop power in 2011. Has 1 of the best combinations of tools and performance. This polished college bat should move fast and would combine with BJax to form 2/3 of a really well rounded OF for the Cubs.

LHP. Jed Bradley - Georgia Tech -

While many are advocating RHPs like Gray, Jungman, and,  Barnes we already own many RH power pitches in the system. While we have some interesting LHP in the system none imo profile as long term SP options as of yet. Bradley would fix this and should move fast. Has a good body, 6'3 205, and was said to be 1 of the most impressive arms on the Cape in 2010. According to PG he had the best command on the Cape, sporting a K/BB ratio of 44/8 in 41 IP and leading the Cape in SO. FB sits 88-92 and peaks at 95. Compliments his FB with a hard-80s slider and effective to plus CU depending on what report you read.

OF. Brian Goodwin - Miami Dade CC -

Would not have been eligable for the 2011 draft until suspended from UNC and transfered to a CC. Maybe should have been included with the 4 college kids I specified would for sure go before the Cubs pick since I've heard he may be the 3rd best player on the board now. Goodwin has impressive tools but is very raw right now. Maybe the most impressive set of tools in the draft starting with raw power and speed both grading as plus to plus-plus. Was rated as the 2nd best athlete and fastest baserunner on the Cape in 2010. With more expierence combined with his top end speed should be able to stick in CF and has the arm for RF. Made significant strides with strength and swing in his 1 year out of H.S. As I wirite this Goodwin probably replaces Springer as 1 of the 4 sure fire players to go ahead of the Cubs. The reason I profile Goodwin here is being a CC player does give him ectra leverage and his tools probably will see him asking for a huge bonus which may scare some teams off, doubtful someone doesn;t take a chacne but  still..............maybe it's me just dreaming lol.

RHP. Sonny Gray - Vanderbilt -

This is many on the BCBs favriote for the Cubs choice at 9. Gray is smallish, 6'0 195, but the Cubs drafted him in the 27th rd. in '08 and already have shown they are not afraid to take pitchers of this stature i.e. Hayden Simpson. Gray has frontline stuff and is a excellent athlete. He sits in the low 90s with his FB late into games and his whip like arm can touch the mid 90s. He also features a mid 80s slider that is unhittable when on. He's a bulldog on the mound and may well go before the Cubs pick at 9. While we already have numerous players who priofile like him I would not be disapointed if he were our pick. You can never have to much pitching.

OF. George Springer - UConn -

Above I said that Springer was probably gonna go before the Cubs pick at 9 but with Goodwin now being draft eligable this may change things. I figure Rendon, Purke, Cole, and Goodwin a safe bet to go in the top 4 picks, at least 1 or 2 of Gray/Jungmann possibly Barnes/Armstrong, 1 or 2 of the top H.S. arms (Norris/Bradley/Bundy) and the fact that the Dbacks own 2 picks in the top 7 and probably take a lesser easier sign talent @ 7 potentially pushes Springer to us. While I say this is unlikely it is possible. Springer is a 5 tool talent who if fell to us @ 9 would/should be the pick and instantly becomes the #1 prospect in the system. On the Cape in 2010, according to PG, he was rated as the best athlete and 2nd best power. At  6'3 200 with explosive bat speed generating plus raw power. Also features plus arm and speed and is a fine defender in CF.

Overview -

As of right now I'm gonna pass on profiling any H.S. players that ma be available and worthy of the #9 pick considering Wilkens recent 1st round picks. This draft is deep and should land us a high end talent. After spending another 1.5 million on a couple of Cuban defectors gives me even more hope on what may be spent on the 2011 draft. It's not just the #9 pick which is key for us it's the fact that so much high end H.S. talent will be available in the later rounds that we need to tap into. Hopefully we will. I know it's early for this but I love doing this and find it very fun. I will continue to follow the draft and update things. I did my 2010 work on wrigleybound.com but since the site is debunk now I will now do this on the BCB if this is somehting that interests the community.