Hendry vs. Epstein Drafts
by FTLOTC on Oct 16, 2011 8:56 AM CDT
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PrintJim Hendry and Theo Estpein oversaw the Cubs and Red Sox amateur drafts, respectively, from 2003-2011.
The drafted players acquired by Hendry over this period combined to accumulate 11.6 WAR in the majors. The top five WAR totals were produced by Sean Marshall (6.6), Casey McGehee (3.7), Sam Fuld (2.1), Tony Campana (1.4), and Darwin Barney (1.3).
Epstein’s draft haul over his tenure with the Red Sox amassed a total of 85.9 WAR, led by Dustin Pedroia (24.5), Jonathan Papelbon (17.1), Jacoby Ellsbury (13.6), Clay Buchholz (8.9), and Justin Masterson (6.3).
It must be taken into account that Epstein likely spent more than twice as much as Hendry on the draft (having trouble finding this data), but Hendry likely had similar resources at his disposal if he chose to allocate them towards the draft. Even so, Theo clearly got much more bang for his buck. I think this was obvious to us, but seeing the actual numbers makes the contrast even starker. See the WAR totals for every major leaguer from their drafts in this spreadsheet (I tried to delete all non-signed players that were later drafted and signed by other teams.) I'd also be interested in seeing a comparison of international free agent signings and MLB free agent signings if any one feels up to the task.
(Data from Baseball-reference.com)
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Bingo
nice post
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
Casey McGehee WAR
Checked fangraphs and they say Casey’s WAR is 5.7…. Didn’t double check others.
Adding in international signings would def be interesting.
by otherones on Oct 16, 2011 12:45 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Baseball-reference vs fangraphs
What is the reason for the different AR numbers between te two sites?
by otherones on Oct 16, 2011 12:46 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
That's a good question.
I have wondered that myself.
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the easiest way to explain it
Fangraphs WAR normalizes things that are considered out of the players control in order to get an estimate of their “neutralized value”
Baseball Reference just takes into account the raw production
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 16, 2011 8:24 PM CDT up reply actions
One wonders why the two couldn't agree...
… so there could simply be one value.
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Because there's a pretty big philosophical difference between them
bWAR attempts to capture total value, i.e. what was the total value of that player last year
fWAR attempts to capture total value when context is removed, i.e. what would the total value have been for that player if everyone’s environment were equal (ballpark, defense, etc)
WAR differences
Here’s an article that highlights the main differences between bref WAR and fangraphs WAR. Basically, bref WAR uses TotalZone as their defensive metric while fangraphs WAR uses UZR. I believe they both incorporate baserunning now. There are also differences for pitchers laid out in the article.
If it's significant, hardly any of that was with the Cubs.
feet firmly nailed to the floor of the Tyler Colvin bandwagon...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Oct 16, 2011 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Wow....interesting....
….and a little sad! Thanks for posting.
"It's cold in April and nobody likes hard stuff in April. You go right after them and get in on their hands and get them unexpected, and it's a lot of fun." -- Matt Garza, 3/2011
by CaughtInTheVines on Oct 16, 2011 12:50 PM CDT reply actions
i knew hendry sucked at drafting but damn
THEOOOOOOOOO
by jesus christos on Oct 16, 2011 12:54 PM CDT reply actions 4 recs
(shaking head)
scoutingthesally.com scouting service $17.95. Very cool service check it out.
It will be interesting how this years draft shakes out.
The Cubs at least paid out more money, only time will tell if it was well spent.
Presuming they continue to spend like that in the draft...
… you should see excellent results in 4-5 years, maybe sooner.
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by Al Yellon on Oct 16, 2011 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed Al
If you can stock up on 3-4 drafts, spend the money, and run your guys through the system rather than stock your triple A team with retreads and future players in Japan, we’ll have something. You look at all of the teams in the playoffs this year, and previous years, and the glue to those teams are always homemade talent.
by rbarnold2626 on Oct 16, 2011 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree, the key to long term consistent success is a strong farm system.
We have not had that and we see the result. Let’s hope that Theo can do something in the interim so we don’t have to wait for 4-5 years.
While the additional dollars
will have a positive impact, our development must be significantly improved. That, I believe, will be the measure of Epstein. Hopefully, in the future, we’ll be able to talk about the Cubs way of playing baseball. Hitters who understand the strike zone and pitchers who throw strike 1.
Theo should also benefit from the Dominican Academy where there is no draft, only money buying the best prospects. He’ll have an incredible opportunity to put the good old boy Hendry era to rest. Interesting to watch will be the drafts of Wilken under the guidance of our new GM.
If it wasn't for the injuries, we'd be printing WS tickets right now.
There's a lot up for debate in the next CBA...
It’ll be interesting to see how it goes down.
OMG
There are to many ways to count how flawed this post is.
1st off – Hendry does not run the draft! While Hendry may have had some say the drafts were run by Wilken. And this is not a knock on Wilken. See below.
2nd – The Tribune company hamstrung us because of the money we were allowed to spend on the draft.
3rd – The Red Sox spent huge amounts of money in the draft. We on the other hand were always among the lowest amount spent especially the last years we were under the Tribune’s control.
To compare the Red Sox and Cubs recent drafts is like comparing apples and air craft carriers. Further more look what we did once we were allowed to spend some money on the draft. $11.2 million and a very Red Sox esque feel this year.
And just to touch on Hendry you don’t know how many of desicions were based on what upper management was telling him he had to do. Just like when Frank Wren (Atlantas GM) traded Javier Vazquez to the Yankees for Arydoys Vizcaino, Mike Dunn, and Melky Cabrera. Wren got ripped for the deal because Vazquez just posted a career year. The thing is and at the time it didn’t come out until later Wren was told to cut payroll. Vazquez was to become a FA at the end of the year also.
Look at what Atlanta got, a potential frontline SP in Vizcaino (who may end up as a power arm out of the pen), Dunn (since traded to Florida to help aquire Dan Uggla) check out his numbers he posted some real good numbers out of the Florida pen this year, and Cabrera didn’ play well last year in Atlanta last year check out his numbers in KC this year.
All this for a guy who went out and posted a 5.32 era in 2010.
I have to go to work and don’t have the time to get into every move made by Hendry but as not nearly as bad as ppl on this site try and make him out to be. Furthermore Epstien has his share of stinkers.
I un rec this post.
scoutingthesally.com scouting service $17.95. Very cool service check it out.
by cubsfan1 on Oct 17, 2011 6:14 AM CDT reply actions 4 recs
Just to clarify
The Trib absolutley set the draft budget AND what type of players (low ceiling high floor college palyers) we to take w/ our 1st rd.
Just like with Tyler Colvin. While he was Wilkens guy he was Wilkens guy because of the parameters the Trib gave him, a college product who will help us sooner rather then later and will sign for slot. Who knows who Wilken would have choosen had he had say, well the Red Sox budget and reign.
scoutingthesally.com scouting service $17.95. Very cool service check it out.
Not always
but in recent drafts.
scoutingthesally.com scouting service $17.95. Very cool service check it out.
out of curiosity
how are you certain that the tribune company told Wilken what types of players to draft? I’ll give you the budgetary restrictions and a lot of the other reasons these comparisons are poor ones (cubs gave away a lot of picks thru FA signings), but Wilken’s always had a propensity to draft low-ceiling/high-floor college types. He did it in Toronto as well
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 18, 2011 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Sorry!
No such thing as the de-rec button!
SBNation spends 1-58 months in product development and refuses to implement it.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
What nonsense are you talking about?
You don’t see the De-Rec button?!
by ubercubsfan on Oct 17, 2011 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Not to be argumentative...
but how do you know this for sure? Was this reported somewhere, and if so, can you post a link? Or was this speculation, possibly on your part, or someone else’s that you heard? Or did you have DIRECT contact with a person involved in the draft?
If the Tribune did actually dictate what type of players the Cubs drafted,, that’s absolutely ridiculous and just another example of why this organization continually lost. As far as the budget, the Tribune can absolutely set that, as that’s perfectly understandable. But to then go out and ALSO say which TYPE of players were to be drafted, that’s like Hendry telling Tribune staff which lap top to buy, or which type of gasoline to fuel up the Tribune trucks with. College players are ok to focus on also, but the low ceiling high floor, they have no business in that.
This is what drives me absolutely insane. What type of business model was this? Well,besides a piss-poor one. Drafting exceptional players is part of the cost of doing business. If it’s too rich for your blood, get out of the business. (I understand that’s what they eventually did).
MAKE THE ADJUSTMENT ALREADY. THIS GAME IS ABOUT ADJUSTMENTS.
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