Junior Lake is killing it in the AFL

AFL stats have been described as "less than irrelevant" but it is still good to see some Cubs succeeding somewhere. Lake has put up a .379/.438/.707 line so far in the AFL.

I have not been able to find any scouting reports saying anything other than he is just hot right now. This is a guy who struck out 109 times between A+ and AA ball last season and was buoyed by a .384 BABIP at A+ ball. He has struck out 14 times while walking only 4 times this fall so it doesn't appear that much has changed in his approach at the plate.

7 months ago subtle 20 comments 0 recs |

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Wonder how he will look in a Red Sox uniform?

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either

by Doggie Stalker on Oct 24, 2011 9:16 AM CDT reply actions

reason why not to believe AFL stats

Kevin Goldstein on Junior Lake

@Kevin_Goldstein
Kevin Goldstein

Into someone who tries pitching at some point. RT @Alan2000XL @Kevin_Goldstein how do you see Junior Lake developing?

http://twitter.com/#!/Kevin_Goldstein/status/127773921037660161

@Kevin_Goldstein
Kevin Goldstein

Little bit of both, really. RT @tioy11: @Kevin_Goldstein Is Lake’s bat really that bad, or his arm really that good?

http://twitter.com/#!/Kevin_Goldstein/status/127775627553144832

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by kaseyi on Oct 24, 2011 9:50 AM CDT reply actions

I don't always agree with Goldstein

but in this case, I do. Lake doing well in the AFL is nice, but there are very, very few real pitching prospects there. The ones that are there are usually working on a new pitch or coming back from injuries.

Lake struck out 109 times this season. He walked 19 times. If he’s putting up those kinds of numbers in High-A/Double-A, I’m not real optimistic that he’s going to succeed against major league pitching.

The power is real. The speed is real. But I can’t see him making enough contact to succeed.

by Josh Timmers on Oct 24, 2011 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions

I don't disagree

But it’s worth pointing out that Lake isn’t just putting up a league-average OPS that merely looks huge because the entire league has inflated offensive numbers. He’s putting up the BEST OPS in the league for anyone with more than 40 at bats (he has 58).

As for the High-A/Double-A issues you note, they’re legit. But he was also just 21.

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by Brett Taylor on Oct 24, 2011 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions

I don't put any faith in the AFL stats

It’s such a small sample size and the AFL rosters are littered with pitchers who are just there to fill out the rotations and bullpens. I didn’t know Lake had an arm that might lend itself to pitching so that could be really interesting considering the black hole that is the roster of Cubs pitching prospects.

by subtle on Oct 25, 2011 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions

Those Goldstein comments

are probably the consensus on Lake, but for what it’s worth, I do remember one of the writers over at Fangraphs (either Matt Klaasen or Dave Cameron) commenting that Lake was the most interesting Cubs prospect he saw while scouting the Southern League championship series, over Viters and McNutt, who he wasn’t too thrilled by.

by cmhosin on Oct 24, 2011 10:57 AM CDT reply actions

Lake would be interesting trade bait

Not saying I want him dealt, but (to some teams) he has value.

I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.

by timh815 on Oct 24, 2011 1:17 PM CDT reply actions

Interesting to see DJ LeMahieu taking walks in the AFL

He’s walked 9 times in 15 games so far. He walked just 26 times in 145 games this season. Given his lack of power, he’s going to have to take walks to be a useful regular. He’s also stolen 7 bases thus far.

by Bradsbeard on Oct 24, 2011 3:49 PM CDT reply actions

Yep.

This Fangraphs article has DJ’s hot shot debut on their AFL leaderboard.

Baseball is pitching, offensive production, baserunning and defense.

by daver on Oct 24, 2011 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Agreed.

I thought of him as more of a utility player, but if he can have a decent walk rate he could be a solid regular.

by Dcr18 on Oct 24, 2011 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions

We dont need these guys, we have Blake DeWitt!

by TJ11 on Oct 25, 2011 6:44 AM CDT reply actions

Goodness it never ends.

Crack me up.

by Grockcubs on Oct 25, 2011 7:48 AM CDT up reply actions

As long as Quade is still here, all jokes still apply.....

by TJ11 on Oct 25, 2011 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions

It's still Blakey.

Or Franchise.

I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.

by timh815 on Oct 25, 2011 8:15 AM CDT up reply actions

And if Lake and DJL are lucky

they will have as good a career as DeWitt.

John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?

by rlpete on Oct 25, 2011 8:26 AM CDT up reply actions

I think both could surpass Blakey

by TJ11 on Oct 25, 2011 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions

Career WAR of 3.0

A lot of guys in our system ‘could’ pull that.

Many of them won’t, but quite a few will.

I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.

by timh815 on Oct 25, 2011 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions

Could yes but not a guarantee.

I have my doubts with Lake’s plate discipline.

DeWitt is a cheap backup infielder who slugged over .400 last year. He can be a useful piece. Better than signing an Aaron Miles type to a 2 year deal. DeWitt had a higher slugging percentage than Byrd. He also outslugged Colvin who many still want to see since he is one of the “kids” even though Colvin and DeWitt are close to the same age.

John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?

by rlpete on Oct 25, 2011 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions

Lake could.

DJL should.

by Dcr18 on Oct 25, 2011 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions

I think Junior has a little Hanley in him

H-Ram always had better plate discipline, but what I mean is that Lake seems to play better and focus more when there’s more at stake. Ramirez dogged it somewhat before making it to the majors. Now, Lake’s ceiling is more likely a guy who starts for a few years while he’s cheap then may become a platoon player. But I don’t know that we’ve seen his best effort.

...formerly known as zambranofan

by cubzfan on Oct 25, 2011 9:11 PM CDT reply actions