Questions: trade candidates

by nickler on Oct 25, 2011 4:43 PM CDT

Once again, thank you in advance for your wisdom

1. What is the current scouting report on Carlos Zambrano? Is he pretty much done? Clearly, it is unlikely that he will return to the Cubs for non-baseball reasons. The question is whether or not he has anything left to be a useful starter in the majors.

I did read a Chicago Tribune article from July which noted that he "failed to impress" during a workout in Iowa. Do you think the guy simply has thrown too many innings and was worn out, or that his stuff is gone. Does he even project as a middle-bottom of the order starter at this juncture?

2. Although I am never crazy about mindless, unfounded speculation, I was wondering if a trade of Zambrano for Cleveland's Matt LaPorta would make sense. The Cubs would likely have to pay pretty much the entire salary for this to work. Cleveland is trying to go for it next year, and need another serviceable starter. They have been pretty disappointed with LaPorta's low OBP and high K rate despite his touted prospect status.

A small market team like the Indians would potentially fill a need for a 3-4 starter essentially for free since there are real questions as to whether LaPorta fits in their future. It would be possible that the Cubs would possibly have to take on another contract, or else give in another low level prospect, to make up for the fact that, at the very least, LaPorta is young and has upside.

So I guess the question is whether or not Zambrano even projects as a fourth starter at this point. If so, it may be a win win for both sides, especially if LaPorta eventually grows as hoped.

3. Is there a way of projecting if Soriano's production would improve if he did not have to field, i.e., if he moved to DH? If so, how does he compare to other DH's in the league?

I doubt any team would want him to play any position but DH given his fielding problems. I wonder if he still has value as a DH, or if he should be kept on the team and, if he does not produce, cut.

4. Is there any word on how Cashner is progressing? After his injury he pretty much disappeared for the rest of the year. Is he expected to be back next year to compete for a starting spot? Or is he out for longer?

Thanks again

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Comments

I would like to know what it takes to get David Wright.

That would do wonders IMO. He definitely needs a change of scenery. That might save the Cubs money from not having to resign Aramis, and he is, from my guessing, a pretty decent clubhouse leader.

THEO!

by wrigleyrocker12 on Oct 25, 2011 5:41 PM CDT reply actions

The Mets could be cutting salary.

Worth investigating, for sure.

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by Al Yellon on Oct 25, 2011 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions

Wright is one guy

we should inquire on. Don’t know what the Mets would want and they’d certainly be selling low. But it’s at least worth asking.

by Josh Timmers on Oct 25, 2011 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions

Wright is interesting

But I don’t see the Cubs trading and giving up prospects for a bat. If we want a bat we can do that in free agency. I feel like the only way we trade for a big name is if it’s a SP.

by Lweb23 on Oct 25, 2011 9:46 PM CDT up reply actions

Depends on what they want

and how Theo et al like him.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Oct 25, 2011 9:57 PM CDT up reply actions

Wright only has one year left on his contract

with a team option with a cheap $1 million option. Whether than makes the Mets more or less likely to trade him, I don’t know.

It’s hard to know what’s going on with the Mets these days. I’d like to get him for a year, but I wouldn’t offer a Garza-like package for him.

by Josh Timmers on Oct 25, 2011 10:35 PM CDT up reply actions

Good Lord

The Mets owe $40 million in 2012 alone to just Johan Santana and Jason Bay.

If they re-sign Reyes, that’s a ton of money to just three players, only one of which would be expected to do anything.

by Josh Timmers on Oct 25, 2011 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions

And Minaya

may get another GM job.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Oct 25, 2011 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions

Maybe we can package Soto, Marmol, and some prospects

This might be a 3 team trade I don’t think the Mets want to replace their younger catcher and might not want Marmol’s contract.

by Mitchener on Oct 25, 2011 11:27 PM CDT up reply actions

$1MM buyout, $16MM option for 2013.

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by D98 on Oct 26, 2011 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions

Keep in mind that option voids if he's traded.

So it’s now or never when it comes to trading him from the Mets perspective. He’s also a potential 1-year rental for the Cubs in that case, so since we’re pretty iffy to content in 2012 I just don’t see the point in giving up talent to get him.

by Wreckard on Oct 26, 2011 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions

Worth investigating but

with Reyes leaving and Beltran already gone, they have saved a lot of money already. I’d be surprised if Wright is traded. They have to keep someone.

John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?

by rlpete on Oct 25, 2011 6:51 PM CDT up reply actions

Cubs already

dont’ have to resign Aramis

I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.

by timh815 on Oct 25, 2011 6:00 PM CDT up reply actions

* don't

I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.

by timh815 on Oct 25, 2011 7:09 PM CDT up reply actions

How's his back?

Is that likely to make him see some serious time on the DL?

"Hit a home run - put your head down, drop the bat, run around the bases, because the name on the front is more - a lot more important than the name on the back" - Ryne Sandberg

by Rocket666 on Oct 25, 2011 8:29 PM CDT up reply actions

Now that Jed Hoyer is joining the Cubs

Chase Headley might be interesting option. He is a pretty good hitter when he’s not playing at Petco.

Hoyer and Epstein both have links to the Padres too.

by Mitchener on Oct 28, 2011 2:05 AM CDT up reply actions

I'd actually consider this.

Career on the road for Headley, in 1117 plate appearances: .303/.364/.441. He is, however, just 8-for-44 lifetime at Wrigley Field.

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by Al Yellon on Oct 28, 2011 8:05 AM CDT up reply actions

SSS

I’m not worried about his ability to hit over time at Wrigley. If he can he had at a fair price, he would likely be my top possible option (as I know we wont like what Wright costs us, plus coming off an injury like that is nasty).

by bdlugz on Oct 28, 2011 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions

44 AB is a pretty small sample size

and he looks like an above average defender at the hot corner.
My guess is that Epstien and co. would value an above average defender entering his prime over a below average defender/ good hitter on the decline IE. Aramis

by Hookers or Cake on Oct 29, 2011 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions

IMO

I still think Z goes to Miami.

You asked about LaPorta, but then argued against it. Why would we need a low OBP guy that isn’t meeting his speculated potential? Adding players and eating money too? Hopefully not; not for that guy.

I agree that Soriano could be a good fit as a DH somewhere. I’d be happy to see it for two reasons. No mo’ Sori talk. An open LF for someone better.

IIRC, Cashner was active at the end of the season. I imagine the bullpen v starter discussions will be at full speed by the time pitchers and catchers report.

by Tat14 on Oct 25, 2011 6:02 PM CDT reply actions

He did hint that Z might be back

Theo stated that wanted to get the most out of each player before moving on. He said he thinks Z is talented. Maybe it’s just him being polite but he might weigh whether Z has more value on this team or whether salary relief from trading him can get us a better piece.

by Mitchener on Oct 25, 2011 11:19 PM CDT up reply actions

Or...

Maybe he realizes that disparaging someone isn’t likely to encourage anyone else to take him – at any price.

by MN exile on Oct 26, 2011 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions

We may well have a few teams wanting

or needing another starter. A good way to create trade bait is to parade it about as a regular ballplayer. Maybe someone will bite.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Oct 26, 2011 8:51 AM CDT up reply actions

I'm afraid that "was talented" is the story on Z

He has lost a lot from his fastball, and was a 1.44 WHIP/4.82 ERA pitcher in 2011. You don’t see a lot of teams rushing to add those kinds of numbers to their rotation.

Maybe if Ozzie loves him a lot and Logan Morrison is deep in Loria’s outhouse pit, there is a deal with Miami that includes the Cubs shipping Z to Florida with enough money for naming rights on the new stadium.

by ClarkFan on Oct 26, 2011 8:59 AM CDT up reply actions

Sorry, almost forgot

Random Pro-Sandberg Sentiment

(bait set)

by Tat14 on Oct 25, 2011 6:02 PM CDT reply actions

Regarding trade candidates

A key is finding people you have that others like more than you do. I don’t see Theo casting final judgment on our minor leaguers for awhile, but prospect-niks far more committed than I think the Cubs have quite a few guys in the pipeline that will make the bigs. Some say, more prospects than any other team. As TE et al learn their games, some will make quality bait.

I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.

by timh815 on Oct 25, 2011 6:36 PM CDT reply actions

Finishing that thought....

Yes, the Cubs have lots of prospects but few that are projected as All-Star type players (ignoring 2011 signings). I think it is going to take time for Epstein and crew to get this team where they want it.

John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?

by rlpete on Oct 25, 2011 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions

Yes

Accurate on all 3 counts. Limited draft budgets over 50-plus years will do that.

I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.

by timh815 on Oct 25, 2011 7:09 PM CDT up reply actions

Well, the guys Wrigley drafted wouldn't be prospects any more, anyway....

by ClarkFan on Oct 26, 2011 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions

In my opinion

I think the Cubs should go after some young, cost-controlled pitching without giving up the farm. Ask the Rays to see what it would take to get James Shields for example. I truely believe Theo will want to upgrade the Cubs defense and pitching. That was his motto in Boston.

by bazfan1234 on Oct 25, 2011 7:10 PM CDT reply actions

Hint

Rays liked Shields more than Garza. Do the math.

I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.

by timh815 on Oct 25, 2011 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah but maybe the new GM\Theo

will have better luck at trades than JH. I am not saying it must be Shields, I was just throwing him out as an example but I see them wanting to greatly increase defense and pitching.

by bazfan1234 on Oct 25, 2011 7:27 PM CDT up reply actions

Any early success

will be from hitting on some minor FA pickups. I don’t see Theo ‘having a book’ on our prospects until the deadline or just before.

I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.

by timh815 on Oct 25, 2011 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions

Agreed....

I see him concentrating on pitching/defense, not some huge FA splash slugger (Pujols).

by bazfan1234 on Oct 25, 2011 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions

Not much pitching, though

There will be a legit offer for Fielder.

I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.

by timh815 on Oct 25, 2011 7:52 PM CDT up reply actions

I would probably be willing to do this

I just wonder if we have a package, not including Brett Jackson, that could appeal to them enough. Shields will be 30 this next year, and has very reasonable team options left on his contract that would take him through the 2014 season. Essentially, he has a 3 year, $28 million contract, with some award voting bonuses and such. He was over 6 bWAR this past year and would immediately slot in as the staff ace. 5 straight years of 200+ IP.

I wonder if a Szczur/McNutt/Lake/Dolis package would get the job done.

by RynoRooter on Oct 26, 2011 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions

I think the Rays will be wanting an impact who is major league ready

particularly a 1b, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. I doubt the Cubs have anything to offer after the Garza trade. Sorry to burst bubbles, but I just don’t see a match. Maybe they can grab Wandy or some other pitcher who’s on the block instead.

Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!

by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Oct 27, 2011 11:02 PM CDT up reply actions

You couldn't get Shields without" giving up the farm" (minus 2011 draft picks)

by Dcr18 on Oct 25, 2011 9:35 PM CDT up reply actions

yup

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Oct 25, 2011 9:44 PM CDT up reply actions

Young, cost-controlled, GOOD pitchers = give up the farm

The Garza swap is about the going price.

by ClarkFan on Oct 26, 2011 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions

Votto

I would have to imagine he’s gonna get too expensive for them soon, plus they have Alonso waiting in the wings

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 25, 2011 7:20 PM CDT reply actions

Why give up BJax and friends

when we can go get Pujols/Fielder and only give up our 2012 second rounder?

by Dcr18 on Oct 25, 2011 9:37 PM CDT up reply actions

yup

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Oct 25, 2011 9:44 PM CDT up reply actions

Agreed.

Good year to sign a big Type A guy since our pick is protected. Reduces the opportunity cost, giving us an advantage over our competition.

by Wreckard on Oct 26, 2011 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions

and many of the big $$ teams won't be in the bidding

Who are the big market teams looking for a 1B?

by Hookers or Cake on Oct 29, 2011 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions

I would love to get BJ Upton

His name was brought up alot at the deadline. Also with all the Byrd trade talk also. And just throwing this out there not to go crazy ha, but what if somehow we did get rid of Soriano however its done, and moved Byrd to left and put Upton in center could Byrd handle left?

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by Eric16 on Oct 25, 2011 8:43 PM CDT reply actions

Fair enough,

cost depending.

I'm a Cubs fan. The Jaded Bitterness comes as a Standard Feature.

by timh815 on Oct 25, 2011 8:47 PM CDT up reply actions

It is the Rays so the cost will be young players.

John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?

by rlpete on Oct 25, 2011 8:59 PM CDT up reply actions

what are the chances we see some moves with the Red Sox and Padres

since we now have their inside men (based on Hoyer coming) who know their players and prospects possibly better than the guys now in their seats?

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by Cubbie-Tim on Oct 25, 2011 9:35 PM CDT reply actions

solid

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Oct 25, 2011 9:44 PM CDT up reply actions

Maybe San Diego in that scenario, not Boston

Cherington isn’t a new hire – he probably knows their system as well as Epstein.

by ClarkFan on Oct 26, 2011 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions

But they both

have differing opinions on some of their prospects.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Oct 26, 2011 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions

Same can be said with Byrnes in San Diego.

by bdlugz on Oct 26, 2011 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions

Just blow it up Theo!

Step one: Move Z…anywhere any how.

Step two: Sign a bunch of one year contracts who you can trade at deadline then trade them with Marmol and dempster. You should be able to bring in some AA or above talent .

Step three:
Sign King Felix and a Ted Lilly kind of pitcher in 2013.

Step four:
Figure out if there is enough offense to get in the playoffs. If not the move Soto and either garza or cashner for AAA talent.

Step 5: Get through 2013. Sign a big bat (Joey Votto?).

Step 6: Cubs are a power house in 2014. AA talent acquired in 2012 should be ready. AAA talent acquired in 2013 should be ready. The talent signed in 2011 draft should be in AAA and could help too.

Step 7: The Cubs have a steady stream of talent come through the minors and are able to buy one major super star a year from 2015-2017. This will be the best chance for them to win the series.

Step 8: After Cubs have 4-5 year good years no one remembers the cubs had a crappy 2012.

by BrewCrew'sPrinceofDarkness on Oct 26, 2011 12:50 AM CDT reply actions

Or

Keep drafting well for the next eight seasons.. We will start slow, but get better by the season.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Oct 26, 2011 5:36 AM CDT up reply actions

Like Theo said yesterday

Developing from within and building a competing major league club are parallel efforts. When you have as much money as we do they are not mutually exclusive.

by Wreckard on Oct 26, 2011 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions

Felix Hernandez is signed for the 2013 and 2014 seasons.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Oct 26, 2011 8:32 AM CDT up reply actions

Fine. Then how about hamels and Cain?

by BrewCrew'sPrinceofDarkness on Oct 26, 2011 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions

I bet Hamels gets signed.

John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?

by rlpete on Oct 26, 2011 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions

He's up this offseason - I expect he'll get locked down for a couple of years.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Oct 27, 2011 9:20 AM CDT up reply actions

Why wait to trade Marmol

Closer is the most overrated position in the game, id get rid of him now

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 26, 2011 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions

If Marmol bounces back and has a 2010 like season

A team in the playoff race will likely overpay for Marmol.

by Mitchener on Oct 26, 2011 8:21 PM CDT up reply actions

I think now you hold on to him and hope he's going good at trade deadline.

Obviously, the time to trade him would have been precisely when Hendry was labeling him as untouchable before last season. A highly payed closer for a non-contender is about the biggest waste of money in sports.

by the nth on Oct 26, 2011 9:08 PM CDT up reply actions

Fingers crossed

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 27, 2011 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions

Think Matt Capps

Holy crap, that was quite the trade for Washington.

Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!

by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Oct 27, 2011 11:05 PM CDT up reply actions

Capps was a pending free agent.

Of course, the Twins then went and surprising resigned him.

I agree that you trade Marmol if you can but he is owed $9.8 million in2013.

John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?

by rlpete on Oct 28, 2011 8:06 AM CDT up reply actions

no GM with any brain will want Marmol as a closer

if his goal is to truly win the World Series. Could you imagine the house fire that is Marmol when you need to win 11 post season games with his control? There’s no chance you could trust him to close games with that kind of pressure when he walks the ballpark.

Marmol’s contract was Hendry’s final nuclear bomb to the Cubs organization.

by MikeJW on Oct 28, 2011 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions

Should have traded him at the deadline last year.

That salary is going to be a thorn in Theo’s side if Marmol can’t actually close effectively. And the early returns would indicate that he can’t.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Oct 27, 2011 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions

The Cubs weren't moving him without eating a lot of salary.

Texas picked up Adams because he was cheap. Marmol is due over 16 million for 2012 and 2013. No one was picking that one up.

John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?

by rlpete on Oct 28, 2011 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions

responses

1. I don’t think Zambrano is done. He’s just not likely to ever be elite again. He’s more like a mid/back of the rotation starter. If it weren’t for his emotional issues, he’d be a certainty in the 2012 rotation for the Cubs.

2. I don’t see that trade happening at all, from either side.

3. Sure. Simply take his numbers and assume the same thing at DH. I don’t see a reason to assume his production at the plate would differ substantially between playing LF and DH.

As a DH, he was below average offensively this year. If we paid most of his salary, maybe someone would take him off our hands. But I don’t think there’ll be too many teams clamoring to get him to be their DH. Soriano would be better suited as a DH, but it still wouldn’t make him a team’s best choice as their DH.

4. Not sure where you’ve been, but Cashner came back in September and pitched 6 relief appearances (5.1 IP). He’s currently pitching in the Arizona Fall League. I don’t think anyone has made a decision about whether or not he’ll be in the rotation next year. That’ll be a decision for the new front office and (likely) new manager.

by SouthernCub on Oct 26, 2011 7:21 AM CDT reply actions

Thank you all for your responses.

I guess my thought with the LaPorta business is that Cleveland has a small window of opportunity to win, as they have to try and win before their cost-controlled players become free agents that they cannot afford. They can’t wait for LaPorta to develop. They’ll likely need to find a free agent 1B to help them compete. They already gave up a huge amount to get Ubaldo Jimenez.

I would think that the Cubs would want SOMETHING for Zambrano. LaPorta was at least a very highly touted prospect who could end up “figuring things out”. If he does while with the Cubs that could potentially be a huge windfall, and he could be the 1B of the future.

If not, well, we would have gotten rid of Zambrano anyway. Realistically, he won’t be back after next season when his contract runs out, and we are unlikely to compete next season. This way the Cubs get at least something that might be of value in the future, when they have a chance to compete.

Of note, LaPorta is not out of options and could start in the minors to continue developing.

Just a thought. Do you think there would be better offers for Zambrano elsewhere?

by nickler on Oct 26, 2011 7:42 AM CDT up reply actions

On Zambrano

I don’t think he dramatically improves Cleveland’s chances of winning next year. And he’d be a free agent after that. It’d be a bad, short-sighted move on their part.

I also don’t think Zambrano’s trade value will be very high anyway, so I don’t think there will be better offers elsewhere. I don’t even think LaPorta would be offered to us for Zambrano.

I’m sure the Cubs would love to get something for Zambrano. But I think it’ll be more along the lines of a minor league “prospect” and a little bit of cash relief.

by SouthernCub on Oct 26, 2011 8:47 AM CDT up reply actions

Clevelands window is not small,

The Indians window shouldn’t even have been opening this past season. They just called up their future 2nd and 3rd baseman (kipnis and chisenhall) mid season, there future star catcher is cost controlled for the forseeable future, as is there ace from this past season (masterson), and there closer (Perez). Choo and asdurbral Cabrera are still under team control for reasonable price tags and they have options until the end of ‘14 for ubaldo. Picking up a head case like zambrano would be a real bad message to send a young team like the Indians. I can’t see any team outside of the marlins wanting big z.

by highvoltagerob on Oct 26, 2011 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

When looking at people

that Theo might trade for I would try not to look at guys with low OBP and high K rates. He might trade for a guy like that for a specific reason but he would definitely not be targeting guys like that.

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by Section 312 on Oct 26, 2011 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions

Zambrano is at best a #4 starter now

I posted most of this back when Z “retired” but I think it’s worth posting again. I looked at Z’s comps at Baseball Reference before the 2011 season. They were a bit startling. Z’s #1 comp through age 28 was JR Richard, but that was mainly because Richard’s last year was aborted due to his injury.

The remaining comps were: Ramon Martinez, Ray Culp, Barry Zito, Mickey Lolich, Dan Petry, Mike Hampton, Jim Maloney, Kevin Appier, Jose Rijo, Tom Glavine

Martinez, Culp, Petry, Maloney, and Rijo were all basically done by age 31 or 32. Lolich had his great seasons at age 30/31, Appier had one good year for a bad Mets team in his earlier 30s, Zito and Hampton are two of the worst contracts in major league history, and Glavine is Glavine.

Another year has added Tommy Bridges, Jack McDowell, and Andy Benes to the list, while dropping Appier and Glavine.

There is no reason to assume that Z will be anything more than a #4 going forward. Pay the money, send him to Miami, let him go eat innings where it won’t matter.

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by Invalid User on Oct 26, 2011 5:15 PM CDT reply actions

Z's arm...

…has lost some life and you can see the decline over the last 3-4 years. His fastball used to be much harder for hitters to put the fat part of the bat on, but that is not the case any longer.

I agree, Z is no better than a number 4 starter.

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by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2011 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions