Yu Darvish

I'm about to post a 2 year plan for the Cubs but I have been thinking on Yu Darvish. Before I make that post I would like to generate some thoughts on Darvish. Anyone not familiar with Darvish, he is widely considered the best pitcher not in the U.S.A. From what I'm reading he may be posted by Nippon this off season. Posting means that his controling team may offer him to the highest american bidder. Many Japenesse players have went through this porocess including but not limited to Ichiro, Hideo Nomo, and, Dice-K. Dice-k, I believe, holds the highest posting at 50 million. This posting amount is not an actuall contract offer but just the right to negotiate with said player. I think all told Matsuzakas total amount to aquire him by the Red Sox was roughly 100 million.

Let's start with the book on Yu Darvish. Darvish has been an elite propsect since junior high. He was his high school's top pitcher by 15. Without getting to much into his H.S. years by the time he was done he was considered among the top ametuer players for the 2004 draft. His professional career has been outstanding. By the tender age of 20 he was his profesional teams best pitcher. At this point let's take a look at what he has to offer repertiore wise.

Darvish does resemble Matsuzaka in some ways especially considering his wide variety of pitches he throws. A string bean when he began his career as a 18 year old, Darvish, has since added weight to his 6'4 frame now weighing a stout but athletic 220 pounds. Throwing from a high three quarters arm slot with a drop and drive motion that I like. To start his four seam FB sits 91-94 and can touch 97. His "slurve" sits 77-80 with hard bite and break. I've heard and I'm saying I have not seen this personally, but 1 guy I talked to says it would rival the pre TJS Kerry Wood slurve circa 1998.
 

Note: Woods slurve, especially, the Astros game when he 1 hit 20 k, is probably the the most devastating pitch I have ever seen from any pitcher. Flat out unhittable. I don't think that Darvish has this pitch but I'm just putting it out there. At the least the pitch is a swing and miss pitch that is considered plus (widely thought) to plus-plus (have heard this also).

Darvish also throws a good sinker and cutter. He aslo offers a solid CB, splitter and CU. I have not read anything on his command/control but his numbers in Japan pro ball indicate that he has solid to plus control. He spots his pitches well, does not walk many, and has an excelent K/BB rate. Darvishs numbers in Japan are SICK.

My personal thought: My only chance to see Darvish pitch was in the 2009 WBC.I do not claim to be a scout but this was what I came away with. I had the  feeling that he was a good maybe really good pitcher. His stuff was solid to good and he mixed his pitches well but I did not see that elite type stuff nor the command that was hyped. Now mind you this was only 3 games and on a really big stage for the 1st time in his career. I liked him though but his movement on his FB was just slightly better then ML average. Like I said above this was an extremely small smaple size but this is my only  chance to see him pitch live against good competition.

Analysis: Now many scouts consider Darvish an elite prospect and feel his stuff is much better then what I have noted. The scouts are probably closer to reality then my small take but I still feel he may be at least slightly overhyped. Mind you this is a guy I own in many fantasy leagues where owning this type of IFA is legal. I do like Darvish very much and he will just be entering his prime once (IF) he enters ML baseball this year. 1 major thing to be noted the Japnesses ball is slightly smaller then the ML baseball. While this will not add velocity imho it does allow for more break/bite/movement on pitches.

The thing is Junichi Tazawa was given a 3.3 million dollar ML contract by the Red Sox to sign after Japanesse college (forgoing the Japanesse draft). Now the intial reports out of Japan on his SL was that it was above average. After seeing 4 minor league games and 2 Ml games his SL, was imho, just ML average at it's best.

Discusion: 1st off Darvish is going to be posted via bidding. The guy is so hyped I could see some team, namely the Yankees or Red Sox offering something in the neigborhood of 70-80 million ( I would not rule out a 100 million dollar offer by the pitching starved and cash flush Yankees). That is just for the rights to negotiate with Darvish. I would imagine he would want more then the 5 year 60 million Matsuzaka got. I'm thinking 150-170 million total to aquire Darvish. I admit the Cubs have not been linked to him and that ownships conservative style probably means this is not plausible, but.................................................. If we went after Fielder we would need some SP.

So anyone interested and be mindfull that I am more conservative of players that I consider "unknown" such as Darvish.

Is this something we should persue?

Is the price worth the potential?

How much should we be willing to pay?

How good do you think Darvish can be? (anything you can add to my post)