Selling to restock, but buying again?
by B.Bruce on Nov 28, 2011 8:28 AM CST
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PrintWith the Cubs wanting to restock their farm system would it make sense to start dealing guys who have deals or are going to make a lot through abirtration? What would be done is trading the likes of Geovany Soto, Carlos Marmol and Marlon Byrd. Some want to trade Garza, but the only way Theo moves him is for a monster package from the Yankees or Rangers.
Soto- He's under team control for 2 more years and is considered to be a top offensive catcher while healthy. Because of his age and his cost a team would probably pay a pretty penny for him. Teams like the Angels, Red Sox, and Mets make sense for me.
Marmol- His value is low right now, but people in baseball acknowledge that ability to miss bats on a constant basis, and he is still seen as a closer so a team like the Mets, Blue Jays, Marlins, Padres, Diamondbacks, Orioles, and Red Sox could all be possible landing spots for him.
Byrd- Not the greatest player, but they could get a nice prospect or two from a team like the Nationals who need a center-fielder.
Now since you have probably traded off about (rough estimate) 20 million, that was going towards your next payroll, you can buy again going after the likes of Jackson, Buehrle, Fielder and ect. Trade proposals I leave to you.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Trade Soto?
No, not while he is cost controlled.
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I agree
I don’t think it’s wise to trade something so difficult to replace. I wouldn’t hate trading Garza if we got a huge haul for him, because you can always find more starters, even if you have to pay retail for him. But finding a catcher with the bat Soto (sometimes) has is exceedingly difficult. Maybe Castillo could be that guy, but I’d rather trade him to someone who thinks he is the next Soto than trade Soto himself.
We are trying to cut payroll, but guys like Soto are not the ones eating into the total number.
Also
… and this is strictly anecdotal, Soto appears to have a strong alternate-year performance plan going.
He’s been very good in even numbered years, not so good in odd numbered years.
If this holds, he should be in line to have a good year in 2012.
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Al....
….sometimes you just have to let go. If you can get a high end SP prospect and another piece for Soto, you have to pull the trigger, especially when Wellington might be able to deliver 75%+ of the offensive performance as Soto (his game calling will improve).
The unfortunate reality is that the Cubs are so devoid of SP (both in the MLB and high minors), they have to look outside the organization for help, and I’m not talking about signing one free agent. That staff needs an almost complete over haul. Wells, Dempster, Zambrano are all not long term answers. That leaves you with Garza and keeping your fingers crossed with Cashner, McNutt or the other randoms.
You're making a major assumption that "his game calling will improve".
I’d rather see Soto stick around with Clevenger as his backup.
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On a team with awful SP...
…does it really matter anyhow?
I’d also rather Castillo learn the ropes at the MLB level now and be ready to rock and roll when this team is ready to really compete.
There’s also a good chance Soto is awful again this year, which would destroy is value to the point of no return. Just another reason why I think you trade him now while he has value.
In the end you are assuming Soto will have another serious bounce back year, and I am assuming Castillo will continue to improve as he gets more experience. I see little difference in the depth of our assumptions.
At the very least, Soto should teach Castillo next year
It’s got two major benefits. You can see if Castillo has the ability to stick at the big leagues without going all in on him, and you give Soto the opportunity to rebuild his value in a year when he wont cost any more than 5 million. Best case, Castillo proves he’s able to replace Soto and you trade Soto at the deadline or in the offseason with 1 or 1.5 years of arbitration left. Worst case, Castillo fails as a major leaguer and Soto remains your starter for 2013 and possibly beyond.
I don't, Soto's is replaceable his WAR in '11 was 2.1
Meaning his reputation and love by the Cub fandom is greater than his actual value, he seemed to have peaked in ’08 with a solid 3.7 but then fell in ’09 rebounding to a degree in ’10 to 3.1.
His value appears to be the highest where a club can control him for two years in salary arbitration but last year I saw too many defensive problems, passed balls and throwing errors on top of his game calling.
I say sign free agent Hernandez, (36 yrs old) to a one year deal, bring up Castillo who is ready and platoon them, let a real experienced and capable catcher tutor Castillo. If Clevenger or Robinson continue to develop then trade Hernandez in August.
Soto could bring a pair of good prospects, pitcher or two.
Time to move on and incrementally improve the organization, especially in an area of strength. Same goes for Marmol and Byrd possibly one of the young second baseman—-maybe even Marshall as well.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
No thanks on Soto...
…for ~$10M per year after this year. He’d basically have to achieve a career year every year to be worth that.
If you average the good and bad years (eg his career average), he’s a career .260/.350/.800 hitter with 15-20 HR power. Good numbers and all, but I think people continue to think of his value during his good years, while mostly ignoring his off years.
I get what people are saying, but If he repeats a bad year this year, all value is lost. And even if he plays well this year, he isn’t a value in 2012 at a close to $10M arbitration number.
Agree with Ivy Walls
No idea why you assume his final year of arb would be anywhere near 10M...
As this year is likely to remain around 5M, that would put his 2013 value at around 6.8 – 7.2M depending on the year he has. Look at similar cases of arb to get a better understanding of the value.
By receiving 3M in arb in 2011, the Cubs are showing they believe his fair market value to be around 7.5-8.5 million. I don’t see where this 10M number came from, outside of randomly choosing it because it fits why you don’t want him.
I figured that if...
…he had the year others on this thread thinks he’s going to have (2008, 2010), that he would be deemed a top 5 catcher in baseball and that his 3rd year arbitration number would reflect that.
You think it will really only increase ~$2M if that happens?
Yeah, it was random, but not really to fit my argument, as I wouldn’t want to pay a guy who is liable for a .230/.310/.710 (has happened 2x in the past 3 years) split $7-8M either.
I’d rather explore what I can get back for him now in the case that year happens again.
If the Cubs keep him, I really hope he succeeds. I just think given the competitive makeup of the team, that exploring trade options where you can get SP back in return is far from a bad idea.
It's not.
But Soto might have more trade value after a bounceback year.
Now, if he has another rough year in 2012, you could conceivably nontender him. But I think it’s worth one more shot at seeing if he can repeat 2008, or 2010.
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It's that sometimes that scares me
Catcher is a brutal, taxing position and offensive production can quickly be affected by it. If you’re ephasizing pitching, defense, and better base running, then an on-again/off-again offensive catcher is not an untouchable.
But I don’t think other teams are asking much about Soto.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Nov 28, 2011 10:34 AM CST up reply actions
I wouldn't categorically reject the idea.
But the haul would have to be pretty huge.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
My feelings as well
I would be on board with dealing anyone, assuming the price is right. I’d trade Castro in a heartbeat if it meant that we got Mike Stanton in return.
I have to disagree, to a point.
While catchers are hard to replace, Soto is about to get rather expensive ($5-6M this year, probably $8-9M the following year). He also turns 29 in January… and 30 seems to be a magic number for most catchers. He’s spent time on the DL each of the last three seasons and has played a full year at the ML level once.
I like Soto. I’m glad the Cubs have a solid catcher who is excellent in even numbered years (hooray 2012!). So it may make sense to hold onto him for one more year.
On the other hand, as with all players… if another club wanted to make a very strong offer that made the Cubs better overall, the Cubs have to strongly consider the deal.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
He also turns 29 in January… and 30 seems to be a magic number for most catchers.
Point taken. But $5-$6m is not THAT expensive. If he has a good year in 2012, THEN you could deal him from a position of strength, especially if Clevenger proves a capable backup. Then Clevenger could move in as the starter in 2013.
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Clevenger/Castillo
It seems pretty widely accepted in the scouting community that Castillo is the better long-term option at C than Clevenger.
As far as Soto, even if he has a big yr , his value will be finished by his increase price tag, as he inches up the arb ladder. Given the tastes of Theo & Jed, I’d be surprised if Soto isn’t moved this offseason.
by Mmurton on Nov 28, 2011 11:28 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Correction
I meant diminished , not finished.
by Mmurton on Nov 28, 2011 11:29 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
That's not what I've heard re: Clevenger and Castillo.
Quite the reverse, in fact.
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Castillo has much greater upside.
Clevenger plays decent defense with solid contact ability and could be a good backup, but Castillo has a strong arm and plus power.
Castillo's pitch calling abilities have been questioned in the past.
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He's only 24...
…so that will improve with experience and coaching.
Literally....
….every single opinion on almost every single “what should the Cubs do during the off-season” conversation is a maybe.
Some people think Soto is going to bounce back, some don’t. Some think Castillo is better than Clevenger, some don’t.
Unless they guy is a total blockhead, I personally think expecting improvements at game calling are well within reason for a 24 year old.. Its not like there are physical limitations holding him back.
by mmontice on Nov 28, 2011 1:40 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
I wouldn't even mind seeing some sort of Soto/LaHair/Castillo
combination between 1b and C, if they aren’t going after one of the big free agents. Maybe there are some available young 1B out there that I’m not aware of, but I think they’d be able to get the same production out of LaHair and Soto that Pena would provide, albeit with a dropoff in defense.
But instead of paying Pena $10mm, and Soto $5-6mm, you could pay Soto his money, then league minimum for LaHair, Castillo, and a backup C. Soto would likely stay healthier, and you could put the extra $$ into a starter
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
Intriguing idea.
Try to get Soto to rebuild value, give Castillo a shot to prove himself, and see what LaHair can do all at the same time. Put money towards Cespedes/Soler/pitching? Fielder is still my top option, but this would be my plan B.
Actually, I think Theo & Jed's tastes increase the chances of Soto returning.
Soto is the one player to come through the Cubs system (seemingly, since Mark Grace) who knows how to take a walk. That could mean he’s back — it also means I’m not discounting Pena’s return.
That said, I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s moved, either. The only two Cubs whom I’m confident will be back next year are Castro and Wood.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I agree that hanging on to him another year might be the best move.
I was just stating, generally, that I would be more than willing to listen on Soto.
Though there’s also a part of me that wonders if the Cubs aren’t best served just having Castillo and Clevenger be the catching tandem in 2012… best guy gets the most playing time. Rookie catchers are dangerous, but I would roll the dice on 2012 in the hopes of identifying a guy who can be counted on as the catcher for the next 5-6 years. I don’t think it is a wise idea to bank on Soto in 2013 (age, price, & wear and tear)… so perhaps a little on the job training this year for the “kids” might be in the Cubs best long-term interests.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Wow
Not being snarky but referring to $5-$6m “is not THAT expensive” is funny. I think Ryno was signed to his big contract for $7m/yr wasn’t he. At the same time that Bonds was signed in San Fran for slightly more? In any case I don’t think I ever see that amount in my life for doing anything.
by Uncle Fungus on Nov 28, 2011 3:32 PM CST up reply actions
When Ryno signed for $7.1 million in '92 the next highest contract was under $6 million.
Bonds was still a Pirate and wouldn’t get more than Sandberg for several more seasons. The worst thing about Sandberg’s contract from is that he still had a year to go. He announced that he would like a new deal through his agent and it was a Tribune exec (Stanton Cook?) who worked with Ryno’s agent, not Larry Himes. Himes might have been a bad GM but jumping from under $6 million to over $7 million in one contract shows how bad it was to have Trib execs involved in baseball matters.
Working and don’t have time to look up every fact, this is just the way I remember it. Corrections appreciated.
That's exactly correct, the way I remember it.
And yes, in real life that IS a lot of $. In 2012 baseball terms, it’s not.
Remember that Sandberg’s deal was signed 20 years ago.
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You have to listen.
Because Soto could bring a good return and you have another good option in Castillo.
by Dcr18 on Nov 28, 2011 11:59 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
It seems like the only reason not to consider dealing Soto
Is if you categorically believe Castillo, Clevenger, or another option (FA/trade) can’t handle the job, at all. I’m not saying “can’t match Soto’s production,” mind you – because there’s an assumption in dealing a valuable piece like Soto that there will be a downgrade.
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by Brett Taylor on Nov 28, 2011 3:25 PM CST up reply actions
This is accurate.
Soto isn’t SO good or SO inexpensive that he’s irreplaceable. The only guy on the team who even comes close to that is Starlin Castro, and that’s because he’s still so cheap and so young. But if, say,
Now, Al and others who are pretty deadset against dealing Geo might think that any return that the Cubs could hope to get will be too low. But we do have a new regime. I’d argue that Hendry — whose best trades occurred circa 2003-04 — would not have been able to get enough for Soto. But Theo and Jed might.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
by elgato on Nov 28, 2011 4:04 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
hopefully Marmol comes into camp in shape
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Cubs win....what a lucky break!!" ---Harry
all the soto love?
why all the love for soto? at best average defensively, not much power since the testing started.
by notcubbiewubbie on Nov 28, 2011 12:39 PM CST reply actions
"Not much power"?
.455 career SLG. That’s pretty good power.
Let’s stay away from unfounded accusations.
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Hasn't his entire career taken place
“since the testing started”? I’m pretty sure they tested for steroids in 2008 when he had a big year, and in 2010 when he did so again.
Soto’s problem has more to do with cheetos than ’roids.
by Orval Overall on Nov 28, 2011 1:44 PM CST up reply actions
don't forget odd numbers
THEOOOOOOOOO (and Hoyer)
by jesus christos on Nov 28, 2011 4:39 PM CST up reply actions
With
the train wreck we have witnessed for the past two years, NO ONE should be safe to stay on this roster.
by wild bill on Nov 28, 2011 12:39 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Marshall is probably a guy you would want to trade
Didn’t Texas pay quite a bit for MIke Adams? Relievers are usually up an down. After this year he probably will want a big contract.
And you shouldn't give big contracts to relievers, with the possible exception of closers.
But I believe Marshall should be tried again as a SP. It could make such a huge difference for the Cubs with nothing to lose (he fails… back to the pen).
He’s developed so much since he last started that I think it is at least worth a shot.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Hard to say.
Is he the next Ryan Dempster, or the next Aaron Heilman?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I never understood
Hendry’s fascination with Heilman. You could just watch that guy and know he had no chance as a SP… and is a shaky at best reliever.
I would have to think Marshall would be closer to Dempster than Heilman. Either way, I really don’t see the harm in giving it a try.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Oh, it's the if-it-ain't-broke school of thought.
Marshall has been a bright spot for the Cubs the past two years, and he was never that good as a starter. IIRC, managers used to pull him early — almost like they could tell that he didn’t have it in him to go more than about six innings.
If Marshall is a Cub next year, and if they don’t try him as a starter, I expect they never will. My guess is that the Hendry regime made it’s decision on Marshall sometime in 2009, and felt validated by the results. Theo and Jed will need to evaluate Marshall to see if they come to the same conclusions.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Marshall may be the most valuable Cub for a trade next July
His fangraphs WAR tied for 4th on the team in 2011 and he’s a free agent after 2012.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Nov 28, 2011 6:08 PM CST up reply actions
Here's hoping the Cubs
don’t have to consider that option.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Nov 29, 2011 11:30 AM CST up reply actions
Hear hear
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Nov 29, 2011 7:07 PM CST up reply actions
If they give Marshall a shot to start then I would like to hold onto him a little longer
His 2 walks per 9 innings and 57% ground ball rate give me confidence that he will better at starting this time around.
Also his fastball has increased to 91.3 mph. I am not sure how much it will drop if he starts hopefully it would be close to 90.
Overall the Cubs need to get younger, more athletic and deeper
This means unless a player on the current 25/40 and top 20 prospect list don’t match up with the above objective the aim should be to incrementally improve the organization and product on the field that is all about the above.
Epstein/Hoyer have said, pitching, defense and the Cubs way. So if/when Soto can be traded for something that brings pitching and more….do it and don’t look back. Cubs have three good catching prospects and they can go out and get a mentoring catcher. There is Hernandez but also IRod, and even Varitek among others who can school Castillo and Clevenger and/or Robinson.
The same goes for Marmol, Cubs have strength in numbers with Carpenter, Cashner and Dolis. The thing is get something of real value in return. The same goes for Marshall, Cubs have lefties who can fill the roles, but then again what is brought in return?
Finally Byrd, the most disappointing thing is when you hang on to a veteran one season too long. Byrd has some value now, trade him to a team that needs a role player…get something and make a future.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
The Cubs way?
What did they say about that? Pitching and defense? Did Theo have a presser I missed? Not that he doesn’t value those attributes, but did he outright say that?
I sure hope Cubs way has not been mentioned. There is no Cubs way. There hasn’t been. There might be one developing though.
D98 mistaken, a hyperbole as in a funny or revisionism as in trying to make a new fact to confirm a prejudice
Yes, he did mention there being a new "Cubs way"
They are coming up with a manual for all players and coaches in the Cubs system and supposedly putting a much greater focus on team defense and fundamentals.
It will be interesting to see how things change moving forward.
No one should be considered off limits.
Theo & Jed should be willing to listen to all offers. The Cubs are missing too many pieces. I do not think you deal Castro or Garza unless you are blown away by the offer. Others like Marshall and Soto could bring a decent return that strengthens the team. The wear and tear of the catching position will catch up with Soto. Why not deal him before it does?
I don’t want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it.
by cub in louies nest on Nov 28, 2011 4:07 PM CST reply actions
One of the major reasons we were so frustrated with Hendry & company
Is that we really don’t know what we have. We don’t know if Castillo or Clevenger can handle the jump to the Chicago staff because they refused to play them after they were called up.
I don’t want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it.
by cub in louies nest on Nov 28, 2011 4:27 PM CST up reply actions
I'm thinkin' I'd hang on to Soto...
…until around the trade deadline. Hopefully he’ll have solid enough numbers that he could be moved for a decent return. But, if he has really good numbers, then just keep him.
"Keep looking into the past and you'll keep repeating the past" - Some Smart Guy
What if the return for him now is really amazing?
Making timeframe decisions doesn’t make a lot of sense when we don’t know what (if anything) is being offered right now to the Cubs.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
This is true
I’m just thinking that “contenders” are more apt to ravish their farm system at a dire time like the trading deadline.
You’re right tho…if someone knocks Hoyer’s socks off with a deal for Soto, then they should probably let him go.
"Keep looking into the past and you'll keep repeating the past" - Some Smart Guy
"Ravish" may be wrong word...
…how about “reach into their”?
"Keep looking into the past and you'll keep repeating the past" - Some Smart Guy
Still inappropriate on a first date.
Baseball is pitching, offensive production, baserunning and defense.
Generally true, but
I wonder if it is slightly different for catchers, given that they need to learn a pitching staff? It would seem more advantageous to make a move in the offseason.
Of course, that doesn’t preclude an in-season deal… just another consideration.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
But if he has really good numbers, maybe they should trade him and get a haul back.
Of course that depends on the direction of the team and how well Castillo is doing.
Deal him now for good young arms is my vote.
The Pirates have no money, but a wealth of young arms. And Doumit is showing age.
"Hey Hey, Holy mackerel, no doubt about it,!"
Soto (him) above
"Hey Hey, Holy mackerel, no doubt about it,!"
by scottsdalecubs on Nov 28, 2011 9:56 PM CST up reply actions
ok, let's try this again. Doumit is a twin as of 11/18.
"Hey Hey, Holy mackerel, no doubt about it,!"
by scottsdalecubs on Nov 28, 2011 9:59 PM CST up reply actions
hate
to start trading players that can help the team win some games to restock.if theo trades anybody he needs to get mlb ready talent in exchange.
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