FanPost

Should the Cubs sign Prince Fielder?



Yeah, I know that this topic has been batted around plenty. But, its a slow day, and I am tired of thinking about PEDs, MVPs, and a list of very unexciting non-tenders.

Let me start by saying I want the Cubs to sign Fielder. Not in a well thought out kinda way, but in the it is December and that would "feel like a win" kind of way, you know the very reason that I am glad that I am not the GM.

Anyway, to try to get a better, more statistical grasp on this question, I looked up Prince Fielder on baseball reference and looked at the most similar players by age. The list is:

  1. Eddie Murray (912) *
  2. Juan Gonzalez (908)
  3. Jose Canseco (901)
  4. Mark Teixeira (892)
  5. Greg Luzinski (892)
  6. Darryl Strawberry (887)
  7. Kent Hrbek (885)
  8. Boog Powell (885)
  9. Jim Rice (884) *
  10. Orlando Cepeda (883) *

I am interested to see how this lot fared for the 7 seasons from their age 28-34 seasons. From that list, I am ignoring Gonzalez and Canseco, for obvious reasons. I am also ignoring Darryl Strawberry for equally obvious reasons.
Through last season, Fielder has averaged an OPS + of 143. So, let's run down the list.
  • Eddie Murray, averaged an OPS+ of 142 through his age 27 season. He then averaged an OPS+ of 138 for his next 7 seasons. That would be great!
  • Luzinski averaged 138 by age 27, and 118 over the next 6 years, but was out of baseball by 35
  • Hrbek averaged 129 by age 27, and 124 from 27-34, again, pretty good.
  • Powell averaged 133 by age 27, and 132 from 27-34, again, pretty good.
  • Rice averaged 138 by age 27, and 120 from 27-34, again, pretty good.
  • Cepeda averaged 140 by age 27, and 126 from 27-34, again, pretty good.
  • Teixera averaged 130 through age 27, and has averaged 133 since, though only through age 31, and his last two years have showed decline.

On average, this group (including the three I excluded) averaged an OPS+ of 133 through their age 34 season, which is only a drop of 4 points from their average through their age 27 season. Is that an indicator of what Fielder would do?
If so, would that be worth the $20M+ per season that Fielder would demand? What about his defense? Is his physique a unique negative influence when compared to this peer group?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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