Should the Cubs sign Prince Fielder?
Yeah, I know that this topic has been batted around plenty. But, its a slow day, and I am tired of thinking about PEDs, MVPs, and a list of very unexciting non-tenders.
Let me start by saying I want the Cubs to sign Fielder. Not in a well thought out kinda way, but in the it is December and that would "feel like a win" kind of way, you know the very reason that I am glad that I am not the GM.
Anyway, to try to get a better, more statistical grasp on this question, I looked up Prince Fielder on baseball reference and looked at the most similar players by age. The list is:
- Eddie Murray (912) *
- Juan Gonzalez (908)
- Jose Canseco (901)
- Mark Teixeira (892)
- Greg Luzinski (892)
- Darryl Strawberry (887)
- Kent Hrbek (885)
- Boog Powell (885)
- Jim Rice (884) *
- Orlando Cepeda (883) *
I am interested to see how this lot fared for the 7 seasons from their age 28-34 seasons. From that list, I am ignoring Gonzalez and Canseco, for obvious reasons. I am also ignoring Darryl Strawberry for equally obvious reasons.
Through last season, Fielder has averaged an OPS + of 143. So, let's run down the list.
- Eddie Murray, averaged an OPS+ of 142 through his age 27 season. He then averaged an OPS+ of 138 for his next 7 seasons. That would be great!
- Luzinski averaged 138 by age 27, and 118 over the next 6 years, but was out of baseball by 35
- Hrbek averaged 129 by age 27, and 124 from 27-34, again, pretty good.
- Powell averaged 133 by age 27, and 132 from 27-34, again, pretty good.
- Rice averaged 138 by age 27, and 120 from 27-34, again, pretty good.
- Cepeda averaged 140 by age 27, and 126 from 27-34, again, pretty good.
- Teixera averaged 130 through age 27, and has averaged 133 since, though only through age 31, and his last two years have showed decline.
On average, this group (including the three I excluded) averaged an OPS+ of 133 through their age 34 season, which is only a drop of 4 points from their average through their age 27 season. Is that an indicator of what Fielder would do?
If so, would that be worth the $20M+ per season that Fielder would demand? What about his defense? Is his physique a unique negative influence when compared to this peer group?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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My response is in the post I wrote two weeks ago
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I just like hearing Eddie Murray's name
I LOVED to watch that guy play.
And while I’ve had to bend my brain a little to think about Prince in a Cub uniform, I’m in favor of it. We desperately need a scary hitter and he should be one for a while.
"It's cold in April and nobody likes hard stuff in April. You go right after them and get in on their hands and get them unexpected, and it's a lot of fun." -- Matt Garza, 3/2011
by CaughtInTheVines on Dec 13, 2011 9:54 PM CST reply actions
agreed
Chronologically inept since 2060
Q: Why did Chuck Norris cross the road?
A: Ditka
Ditka's mustache can kill two stones with one bird
It is better to spend money like there's no tomorrow than to spend tonight like there's no money! - Irish toast.
So, essentially trade Ramirez for Fielder?


"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
I do hope we sign him. Why pass on this talent if we have the resources?
He’s in shape. Round is a shape.
by Tat14 on Dec 13, 2011 9:57 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
Duh
But he is going to get way more than 7/140M.
Maybe not.
This Morosi article does a good job of breaking down the team’s likely in the bidding for Fielder, and the author suggests Prince could agree to a shorter deal if the contract’s AAV is higher than what Pujols got. He even speculates (<— there’s that word!) that Prince could accept a four-year deal, which would allow him to hit free agency again at the same age Albert just did.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Yes.
The Cubs need a centerpiece offensive player. They have more to lose than gain by not signing him. Something like a 6 year 156million deal with a club option for a 7th year should suffice. maybe a 4M buyout to make it a 160M guarentee.
Yup
though I’m interested in what the Mets want for Ike Davis and what the Angels want for Morales
"For small creatures such as we the vastness is bearable only through love." Carl Sagan
Certainly sign Fielder...I'd like Darvish as well...
…It’s an assload of coin for both, but, signing Darvish AND Fielder would definitely set in place the foundation for the next 6 or 7 years, I’d think/hope.
Happy Holidays to all BCBers...be safe.
Yes
I know Jed/Theo would hate to give up a draft pick but its Prince freaking Fielder.

"Keep pushin' til' it's understood. And these badlands start treating us good."
by AussieCub on Dec 13, 2011 11:16 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
could think of it as trading
Rami + Draft Pick for Fielder + Draft Pick
Chronologically inept since 2060
Q: Why did Chuck Norris cross the road?
A: Ditka
Ditka's mustache can kill two stones with one bird
It is better to spend money like there's no tomorrow than to spend tonight like there's no money! - Irish toast.
I think it would work out to
Rami + 2nd round pick + Supplemental round Draft Pick for Fielder + Supplemental round Draft Pick.
It would be the Cubs 1st round pick, but the Cubs are picking 6th so the pick is protected.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 14, 2011 10:51 AM CST up reply actions
All the more reason to sign a big FA this year
The value of a supplemental pick is $3-4M less than that of a non-protected compensation pick. So signing a Type A this year costs us that much less (effectively) than if we end up in the non-protected tier next season.
It’s not a ton of money, but it is value.
Seriously thuogh, how can they NOT sign him?
I mean, I know Theo is a big deal, but fans aren’t gonna come to Wrigley for Theo (not that I care about attendance, but the Cubs sure as hell do). As currently constructed, the Cubs might have the worst offense in baseball. They don’t have one middle of the order bat. Wrigley is gonna be abysmal if they don’t sign him.
I’m cool with rebuilding, and by no means do I expect them to be world beaters next year, but I don’t think they have to hit rock bottom like some in the media are making it seem. You can rebuild and remain competitive without abandoning any of the principles that Theo has been preaching.
Sooner or later they’ve got to get a big bat for the middle of the lineup, now might be their best shot. Fielder would instantly become one of the biggest stars in the city.
(also, I’m not digging the other current FA options. Darvish and Cespedes are not the type of gambles that they should be taking on imo. Particularly Darvish.)
Recovering...
He's...just...so...fat.
If he was less fat I would like him more. Then again, that goes for most things, sans the sumo culture.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
I LIKE BIG BATS...
…AND I CAN NOT LIE
YOU OTHER CUBS FANS CAN DENY
THAT WHEN PRINCE STEPS IN WITH HIS OVERSIZED WAIST
AND PUTS THE ROUND THING IN THE SEATS
YOU GET SPRUNG
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
by daver on Dec 14, 2011 9:49 AM CST up reply actions 8 recs
I'm going to go ahead and rec this
Even though you forgot ♫ ♪
Of course, Sir Mix-a-lot may not actually BE music, so maybe your way is correct.
Step Two: Develop an organizational plan
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 14, 2011 9:51 AM CST up reply actions
Thanks!
I’ve gotten a bit lazy with the musical notes, I guess. And I was going to do the whole song but, uh, I should really get to work here…
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
I rec'd it.
But I felt dirty doing so.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
MY ANACONDA DON'T WANT NONE UNLESS YOU GOT RUNS SON!
You can do side-bends or sit-ups, but please don’t lose that WOBA
‘Cuz your WAR is long, and your VAR is kickin’
And I’m thinkin’ ‘bout stickin’
To $20M/year until you can’t play anymore at age 35, which is two years after your dad retired for being fat.
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
SO FELLAS (YEAH?), FELLAS (YEAH?)
DOES PRINCE FIELDER HAVE THE BAT (HELL YEAH!)
THEN SIGN HIM (SIGN HIM!) SIGN HIM (SIGN HIM!)
SIGN HIS HEALTHY BUTT
FIELDER’S GOT BAT
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
by daver on Dec 16, 2011 10:15 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
The correct answer is, "Of course."
by Bad Dogs on Dec 14, 2011 5:28 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Thanks for running the comparisons
That was interesting. Luzinski and Hrbek weren’t exactly Adonises either.
...formerly known as zambranofan
Just drove by Wrigley - coulda swore I heard this Christmas carol over the PA system...
Darvish Yu a Merry Christmas, Darvish Yu a Merry Christmas
Darvish Yu a Merry Christmas, and a Happy New Prince!
Good signings we bring, can’t wait until spring
Darvish Yu a Merry Christmas, and a Happy New Prince!
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Dec 14, 2011 7:46 AM CST reply actions 3 recs
But I'm not rec'ing it
because I don’t think Darvish is worth the money.
If it were my money, I'd be willing to gamble on a market value contract...
…but it’s that posting fee that would probably keep my wallet shut.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Depends on what the fee is, and then what the subsequent contract is.
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I've softened on this issue a bit.
Mainly because I keep reminding myself of how few good starting pitching prospects the Cubs have who are anywhere near MLB ready. I mean, it’s Trey McNutt and …? And even he seems to profile as a middle-of-the-rotation guy if all goes well.
The posting fee is still hard for me to get comfortable with. But the team would be essentially buying themselves an elite pitching prospect, so…I’ll understand and be fairly excited if the Cubs surprise everyone and win the bidding.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
you were right the first time
it’s far too much money to commit to a prospect, even one that is supposedly elite, it should be pretty clear at this point that the level of competition in japan is mediocre at best making projections rather difficult.
by circuitclout on Dec 15, 2011 8:44 AM CST up reply actions
I'm still going back and forth on it.
But I’m not sure we should judge Darvish only on the level of competition. There’s still his raw stuff/velocity/pitching mechanics — all aspects that can be judged and assessed by good scouting. If the scouts are saying they’re a go, then I can understand why a team would want to invest in him.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Don't forget, there are 5+ WAR pitchers who can hit FA after the 2012 season
Paying a lot more for Darvish than Cain or Hamels would cost is a pretty big gamble.
no guarantee either
Make it to free agency
Come on Lisa, I'm trying to impress people here. You don't win friends with salad. ~ Homer J. Simpson
by TheBeerBaron on Dec 16, 2011 6:35 AM CST up reply actions
Well, the higher the fee, the lower below market-value the contract would need to be
IOW, I wouldn’t mind paying him what I’d expect to pay for any other FA stud-to-be would command on the open market. But if you add the posting fee on top of that (upwards of $50M), then sorry but no. I’d rather wait a year and see if Hamels makes it to FA. Or go after Cain, King Felix, etc.
Now if I can pay less than market value on that contract, with the difference making up the vast majority of the posting fee, then that’s a different story and I could be persuaded. But I get the sense Yu’s not going to sign for peanuts, and anything less than a substantial offer, he’s perfectly okay with staying in Japan for another year.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I don't think
we should sign him. Mostly because he would sell tickets. I only want to sell tickets in 3 years when we have a successful home-grown team.
Wut
Step Two: Develop an organizational plan
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 14, 2011 9:52 AM CST up reply actions
I would be really surprised if Fielder isn't a Cub very soon.
The moves so far this offseason (Stewart and DeJesus) aren’t that satisfying because they both involve secondary (maybe tertiary) pieces. However, TheoJed filled two spots with guys who, put together, will make no more than $7 million. That, in my mind, sets things up for some major acquisitions going forward because the Cubs have a good bit of money to play with.
I think a fairly safe bet is that the Cubs get ONE of Fielder and Darvish. I think it’s a longshot that they’ll get both (for reasons that were debated endlessly on Monday). But given that Fielder’s a surer thing with no posting fee — and that the next best first base option might not be that much better than Bryan LaHair — I think we’ll see Fielder agree to terms with the Cubs in the next few weeks.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Before or after the New Year??
I hope before….
THE FONZ HAS ARRIVED!
i agree
especially because Levine and Muskatt keep saying how the Cubs ARE NOT in the Fielder hunt, that makes me think more so they are. if that makes sense. just Seems like a Theo thing to do, put it out there we arent in and then boom, big sign. or maybe im just hoping haha
6/150
i think is how we sign him
and i think its a great move at 6 years
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 14, 2011 9:10 AM CST up reply actions
Give him an option for the seventh year ...
and do it.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Agreed.
In fact, that’s the deal I’ve been predicting/suggesting/expecting — six years with a team (or maybe mutual) option for a seventh. The only wild card is, as I noted above, if Prince wants to take another run at a big free agent deal later in his career, he may actually agree to a four (seems doubtful) or five-year deal. In fact, it would make a certain amount of sense for him to, say, sign a five-year deal with the Cubs now, and then move to an AL team after that so he can transition to DH late in his career.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
problem is will that offer be there?
I’m not sure the Cubs offer 5/150 (30 mill annually) instead of 6/150
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 14, 2011 10:02 AM CST up reply actions
Or give him an out claus after four years.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
the out clauses and player options
are a bad thing for us though… because they ONLY get exercised if the player is out-performing. It’s all downside for us.
I cant remember a time Theo/Jed have negotiated a contract that included an opt out clause and I dont think they’ll allow that structure in this deal
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 14, 2011 10:15 AM CST up reply actions
Good points.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Yeah, that is a problem
I’d have my doubts that Prince could consistently provide $30 million a year in value. Maybe they could build in incentives? Not sure. That’s why the 6/150 amount you cited (with a possible option) does seem the most realistic offer.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Honestly ...
DeJesus, Jackson, Castro, Fielder, Stewart, Soto, Soriano, Barney is kind of intriguing. A lot hinges on Stewart bouncing back, but that lineup could make some noise in the Central.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Yeah, I would be relatively excited about that lineup...
…going into the season. The best part about it is six of the eight batters are under 30. Geo could have a much better year. Maybe Stewart will finally find himself. Batting Brett Jackson second would be putting him under a lot of pressure, but there aren’t many good options there.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
You could swap Jackson and Barney.
But hitting Jackson in front of the pitcher seems like a bad idea.
The real question is, what would the Cubs do if they don’t get Fielder? Try to upgrade at second?
Fielder’s sort of a lynchpin, IMO. With him hitting cleanup, Castro might get enough good pitches to hit third. Fielder hitting fourth makes Stewart hitting fifth a little more acceptable.
Without Fielder, you might not have anybody in the lineup who you can justify hitting 3, 4 or 5.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Kinda like a cocktail I had once.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Cespedes and FIelder would be a good offseason
Two young guys that you can build around in a couple years. Cespedes and FIelder might end up being 35 million year. Then i would think about adding Edwin Jackson for maybe 9-10 million. You probably wouldn’t have a playoff team but you would have guys all in their prime for the next 3-4 years to build around.
I don't think he should get much more than Matt Kemp
YES, I want the Cubs to sign Fielder, but only at the right price. Matt Kemp got eight years, 160 million……I’d much rather have a total stud like Matt Kemp, who also steals 40 bases a year and owns center field, than Fielder.
Fielder is not worth more than that, you have to draw a line somewhere or then it’s just bad buisness.
The difference is
Matt Kemp had 1 more year before free agency. Kemp made $6.95M in 2011.
Fielder made $15.5M in 2011. So I don’t think $20M will get it done for Fielder.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 15, 2011 12:58 PM CST up reply actions
Yes, sign him yesterday
There is nothing about signing Fielder that runs against the Theo/Jed philosophy, no matter how many people in the media try to make it so.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Dec 14, 2011 11:26 AM CST reply actions
Well, there is one thing.
He’s not rated well defensively. But I think Theo & Jed may have to give on that particular point.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
To me, it's this simple:
Impact bats like this don’t come available too often. When you consider the fact that teams who would normally be players (Red Sox, Yankees) aren’t going to be in the bidding, you HAVE to sign Prince Fielder. He fits a position of need, he’s incredibly durable, and it doesn’t hurt that he hits left-handed.
Prince is an elite talent and we have very minimal competition. Sign the man!
I'd like to say
That if theo and Jed decide he is not a good option, I would have total faith in them. But this is such an obvious fit and such a desperate need that I will be disappointed in the new regime if they don’t make it happen.
Also, I would much rather see us go the trade route for another starter. I can’t imagine there aren’t a whole slew if prospects in the system that the new guys don’t like that we could move for a solid number 2 starter, such as Danks or Gio.
Adding Fielder would give us a competitive lineup. But the rotation is still bad, and I don’t think we can afford to risk that kind of money that Darvish will be the savior. To me, he makes more sense for a pitching rich team like the Phillies. Maybe they trade Hamels for a huge haul and have Darvish replace him. There would be less pressure on Yu if he was amongst those other brilliant pitchers. Here, we would be desperate to have him be our number 1 or 2.
by tomas21 on Dec 14, 2011 1:09 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Trades are fine, but the Cubs don't have much to trade
Mostly bad contracts to dump. You don’t get much for that except salary relief.
they could just
Send a large package of mediocre.
I’m sure Vitters and McNutt land the Cubs either.
Come on Lisa, I'm trying to impress people here. You don't win friends with salad. ~ Homer J. Simpson
by TheBeerBaron on Dec 16, 2011 6:37 AM CST up reply actions
Yes. It is almost a no brainer.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
Interesting Clubhouse Confidential breakdown yesterday
They listed out the teams which have a spot for Fielder at 1st, available cash, and are poised to win. As I recall, the only real option was the Rangers. The Cubs were dismissed as being 3-4 years away from contention. All other teams had a strong 1st baseman already on the team under contract or could not afford the likely contract.
I thought they were 2-3 years away
But I think that the new CBA has them thinking differently.
To me, a rotation of:
Darvish
Garza
Dempster
Zambrano,
Wells
With a lineup of:
Castro
DeJesus
Soto
Fielder
Jackson
Soriano
Stewart
Barney
Could be an 80-85 win team. Not world beaters, but maybe fringe contenders in the NLC.
Step Two: Develop an organizational plan
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 15, 2011 1:30 PM CST up reply actions
While I agree with some of this ...
that lineup isn’t right, Shanghai. Geovany Soto will not be hitting third, DeJesus won’t be hitting second (it’s been stated that the Cubs will use him as a leadoff hitter). This is closer to what you’d see.
DeJesus, Jackson, Castro, Fielder, Soto, Soriano, Stewart, Barney or
DeJesus, Jackson, Castro, Fielder, Stewart, Soriano, Soto, Barney
I know Soto has some offensive pluses, very few catchers hit that high in the lineup because they need more rest than other players. Also, why would anybody pitch to Fielder if the guy behind him in the lineup is an unproven rookie?
I know Castro hit better leading off last year, but that was when Ramirez (pre-ASB) was hitting behind him. With Fielder coming up, Castro should get some good pitches. As should Jackson in front of him. And if Jackson bombs out, it would be pretty easy to switch him and Barney.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Yours is closer to reality
It’s just, as I started going through it, I realized they’re still one hitter short…
Step Two: Develop an organizational plan
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 15, 2011 3:40 PM CST up reply actions
Not if Castro continues to develop.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
The lineup could be decent
Castro and Jackson need to live up to their hype. Then Soto, Dejesus, and Stewart need to bounce back.
Theo seems like a guy who would get an extra piece if the Cubs were close to playoff contention at the All star break.
If you can get Prince for 7/$140 million
You jump on that. If it takes 8/$200 million, as has been reported, you walk away.
He'll get more than $20 million per.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Most definately
But the OP put a poll up and asked if the Cubs should sign Fielder to a 7 year deal, worth $20 million per.
it's very twmpting he's a great bat.
my biggest concerns would be the weight, if the numbers are accurate then 5’11", 275, is weight that’s out of control. I’d be concerned about what happens after he signs the mega deal. most likely it will take an injury for him to get control of his weight.
The other concern is whether the size of the contract then becomes the controlling factor for everything else budget wise. if it does not then it’s not an issue. So long as this does not set our max, all-in budget.

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