What to do with Sean Marshall?
by WGNstatic on Dec 20, 2011 11:35 AM CST
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The Cubs certainly need to develop a plan for Sean Marshall. To me, he is the most intriguing asset the Cubs have. I see four options:
1) Keep him in his current role.
2) Move him to closer.
3) Move him to the starting rotation.
4) Trade him
To me #1 makes the LEAST sense, although it is the easiest route. As a pending free agent he will soon be a pretty expensive set-up man, a luxury that I don’t see the Cubs splurging on in the next couple of years.
As a free agent reliever, he will be on the market as a closer, albeit a largely untested closer. If Theo and Jed really do believe that he is the best lefty reliever in baseball, then put that to the test and see if he can handle the closing responsibilities this year. Of course that means moving Marmol, which, although I like the idea of in general, there might be some argument that he’d best moved later when he, hopefully, has built his value back up a bit. Furthermore, if there is one area the Cubs seem to have good organizational depth it is with potential closers.
The option that most intrigues me is moving him to the rotation. It is nice to dream of a CJ Wilson type of transition for him. There are no indications that this is being pursued though, and I’d think that Marshall would need/want to know soon with regards to his off season training.
This of course leaves the trade possibility. Certainly possible. That said, it will be very interesting to see how the trade market for middle relievers develops. Yes, an in season trade will not bring back draft pick compensation. However, holes in the bullpen are the types of things that many teams go into the season hoping (justifiably) that young internal guys can handle the job, then, in July when the team is desperate and sees the weakness they spend on at the deadline (as both the Cardinals and Rangers did this season in a big way.)
So, would Marshall make a successful jump to the rotation? I compared him to CJ Wilson to get a better idea. Yes, there are good reasons to not simply compare two players (can you say bad statistics!) but, what the heck.
1) First and foremost, it is certainly arguable that Marshall is a better reliever than CJ Wilson was. In Wilson's best and last year as a reliever he was valued as a 2.0 WAR pitcher, Marshall has exceeded that each of the last two years with WAR values of 2.2 and 2.8.
2) Wilson relied heavily on his fastball as a reliever, throwing more than 73% fastballs (including 2-seamers). This is notable since his average fastball velocity dropped from about 93mph to 90mph with his move to the rotation. Because Marshall is less dependent on his velocity, any vulnerability due to decreased FB velocity is less than what Wilson faced.
3) Wilson threw his slider 18% of the time as a closer (along with his 73% fastballs), making him a pretty classic fastball/slider power reliever. Marshall, on the other hand threw his fastball (~30%), slider (~40%), and curve (~30%) almost equally in 2011, interestingly dropping his cutter which had made up about 10% of his pitches in 2010 and 20% in 2009.
So, Marshall is arguably a better pitcher, with more good pitches in his arsenal, who is less dependent on his velocity. Furthermore, he came up as a starter so he has a history of throwing more pitches in a season. Are there arguments against? Sure, but that's what you all get to fill in.This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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I dig it right where he's at.
He’s one of the few players we have that are actually great in their role. Why mess with that?
That being said, I’d probably like him as a closer. Occasionally used as a LOOGY in certain key situations, but normally closing out games.
I think he’s found himself and is comfortable with his major league identity. But I’m just a fan, not a doctor, dammit Jim!
Keep Him In A Set-Up Role
Marshall’s never been a reliable starter. I could see him as a swingman, if you will. That’s somebody who could make a spot start, when the Cubs are playing 20 days in a row, or somebody that could make an emergency start, if a starter suddenly comes up injured. The bulk of Marshall’s work should be out of the bullpen as a set-up guy.
Good things come to those who wait... and wait....and wait.
Reliable starter
He hasn’t been tried as a starter consistently since 2007, when he was 24/25 years old. He was a 6th starter in 08 and 09 and full time in the pen since then.
Eamus Ursuli!
in 2009 he had the Cubs only complete game
ina rain shortened game IIRC
Chronologically inept since 2060
Q: Why did Chuck Norris cross the road?
A: Ditka
Ditka's mustache can kill two stones with one bird
It is better to spend money like there's no tomorrow than to spend tonight like there's no money! - Irish toast.
Marshall did have a CG in a rain shortened game in 2009.
But the Cubs had two others that year, both in September, one from Dempster, one from Zambrano.
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Put Marmol in a trade for Rizzo
Move Marshall to closer.
Trade him at the deadline when his value is at its peek.
This thing needs to be torn down completely and rebuilt with a proper foundation.
"We gotta circle the bandwagons." - Devin Hester
but don't other teams exist for the purpose of taking the cubs trash?
Screw you, Jon Daniels
by jesus christos on Dec 20, 2011 1:45 PM CST up reply actions
and giving us their good players
Chronologically inept since 2060
Q: Why did Chuck Norris cross the road?
A: Ditka
Ditka's mustache can kill two stones with one bird
It is better to spend money like there's no tomorrow than to spend tonight like there's no money! - Irish toast.
True, probably have to move Marmol or Garza
to a team for prospect the Pads do want to get Rizzo.
If we do swing a trade for Rizzo, I imagine either Garza or Marmol (or both) would be in it, and we would receive additional prospects besides Rizzo.
I could see Theo / Jed spinning Garza/Marmol for three of four top-notch almost-ready prospects.
"We gotta circle the bandwagons." - Devin Hester
by Jose's Eyelid on Dec 20, 2011 1:55 PM CST up reply actions
leave him alone
if it isnt broke, dont fix it. think LaTroy Hawkins who said over and over he hated the 9th inning and loved the 8th. he was forced into the closer role and bombed, left and went back to the set up role and has been successful since.
Chronologically inept since 2060
Q: Why did Chuck Norris cross the road?
A: Ditka
Ditka's mustache can kill two stones with one bird
It is better to spend money like there's no tomorrow than to spend tonight like there's no money! - Irish toast.
I agree with this.
Plus, if you move Marshall out of his current role, who do you put there?
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Why not James Russell
who was very effective… as a reliever… last season. Then you just use Maine/Bellvieu as the 2nd LH in the pen.
Sure you suffer a drop off in your middle/set-up relief… but if it stays that way, that means Marshall is “working” in the rotation, which is an overall gain for the club (as you’ve noted on the 4th/5th starter WAR discussions).
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
True, Russell was very effective in relief last year.
I’m just leery of Marshall in the rotation. He’s never really had the stuff or stamina to do that before.
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Same here.
Marshall tends to pitch backwards, which I think keeps batters off-balance late in games and in short appearances. But if he tries going through the lineup several times with that approach, I just don’t think it’s as effective. Maybe I’m oversimplifying, though.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
I can definitely understand that.
I just see a guy who is a far different, and better, pitcher than he was when he was a SP. Some of that may certainly be reliever related (go all out for a short stint, don’t face a line-up twice)… but some of it also surely translates to being a starter (far better command, sharper stuff, better idea of how to get big league hitters out).
And I guess I just don’t really see any downside in giving it a try. If it’s not working, he just goes back to the pen… and he doesn’t strike me as a guy who would mentally fall apart if starting didn’t work out since he’s had so much success in the pen.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
I agree with you re: Marshall's mental makeup.
If anyone could make this transition, he could.
I suppose it might be worth a shot. I still think he’s more valuable in the pen.
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Risk/Reward
If the Cubs had 5 starters, or, were otherwise on the brink of contention, I would agree. However, they are not. If Marshall moves to the rotation and succeeds, the Cubs have a far more valuable asset. If he moves to the rotation and is no better than a #5 starter (I find it highly unlikely that he would bomb out), then he could be moved back to the pen.
The question I have is this: How logical is it to have one of your best assets be a middle reliever on a team that has major improvements needed to contend, especially when middle relief is one, if not the only one, area of strength and depth?
Eamus Ursuli!
Because that role is where he has been an asset.
I am over-simplifying this but for example; just because Castro had 200+ hits last season doesn’t mean he should hit 3rd next year. Just because Reed Johnson is dynamic off the bench, doesn’t mean he should start in the OF.
I think its very logical to keep Marshall doing what he has done the best for the Cubs.
Crying over spilled milk, they could’ve tried Sean in the rotation last year during the “what if” days of September. But they didn’t. I’d pencil in Marshall as my set up guy and work the rest of the roster.
What about after 2011?
His looming free agency concerns me. After next year he could easily be looking at a contract nearing $10M per season as a premier reliever. That would put him around the 2nd or 3rd highest paid player currently on the Cubs roster. I just don’t see that type of commitment to a set up man being a reasonable use of resources.
So, if he really is best served as a 8th inning guy, should he be traded while he still can be?
Eamus Ursuli!
Rafael Soriano got some nutso contract
But, no, Marshall won’t get $10M per season… unless it’s as a SP or a closer (which seems unlikely).
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Agreed. People here are overvaluing Marshall.
He is not a lights-out type reliever.
The year before Soriano got his Yankees contract, his numbers were 62 innings with 36 hits and 14 walks. The contract he got was “nutso” and Marshall is not in his class.
Personally I don’t see Marshall as a great closer. I’d give him a shot as a starter. Russell can take the LH setup role.
John Grabow - Who will pay you $4.8 million in 2012?
Wait.. not in the same class?
You do realize that comparing Marshall’s 2011 to Soriano’s 2010, Marshall has the better stats?
Marshall: 75.2 IP, 9.40 K%, 2.02 BB%, 0.12 HR%, 57.5 GB%, 2% HR/FB, 2.26 ERA, 1.86 FIP, 2.50 xFIP on a .313 BABIP (slightly unlucky)
Soriano: 62.1 IP, 8.23 K%, 2.02 BB%, 0.58 HR%, 32.5 GB%, 4.8% HR/FB, 1.73 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 3.63 xFIP on a .199 BABIP (incredibly lucky)
At worst you can say they had similar peak seasons, at best you can make a claim that Marshall is better in just about every category but luck; but to claim they are not in the same class is completely incorrect.
There's a couple of differences that have more to do with his price than anything
1) He was a closer, so the Yankees had to overpay to get him to take a non-closing role
2) The Yankees massively overpaid and even at the time people thought that was a dumb contract
I'm in no way advocating a similar contract.
I’m simply arguing that as far as skills and stats go, Marshall is on par with Soriano.
I doubt he'd even get that as either of those
He’d have to be pretty amazing in 2012 to earn that kind of payday after just one year of rotation duty or closing.
Franscisco Rodriguez is about to
But I realize that’s not the same situation.
Step Two: Develop an organizational plan
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 20, 2011 3:35 PM CST up reply actions
Dolis? Carpenter? Cashner? Smardja?
Lots of candidates, none as good as Marshall. But if you can get some good prospects for him, I would move him. Not too many fifth place teams really need set-up guys (or closers for that matter)
"We gotta circle the bandwagons." - Devin Hester
by Jose's Eyelid on Dec 20, 2011 2:00 PM CST up reply actions
Samardzija, Wood, Russell, Carpenter/Beliveau/Dolis.
We have a lot of relief pitching depth and plenty of 8th inning candidates. Not saying I want him in the rotation, but it isn’t like we don’t have suitable replacements for him.
You laid out a pretty strong case, IMO.
I believe the Cubs should absolutely try him as a SP… because the other three choices are still options if it doesn’t work.
It seems he has developed as a pitcher a whole lot since his last trip to the rotation. So I would go that route.
I’m not sure he is strong enough as a closer, but it’s fine if the Cubs used him in that role in what is probably a “transition” season.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
I've advocated leaving Marshall right where he is at for awhile now.
But, take a look at the Rangers right now. They’ve had an incredible amount of success moving great relievers into a starting role. Two seasons ago, Wilson; last season, Ogando; this season, Feliz. Sure Ogando wore down last season (and is now moving back to the pen) and we don’t know how Feliz will do, but I think the Rangers are on to something.
Marshall was pretty average as a SP before, but I wouldn’t mind trying him there again. This team is in dire need of starting pitching help and an outstanding set-up man is a luxury. They only have him another year anyway.
Best case scenario: Marshall becomes an outstanding SP, increases value, and the Cubs trade him for a big haul at the trade deadline in July.
Worst case scenario: Marshall is a league average SP like last time, Cubs either move him back to the pen or trade him for decent value
Leave him in the set up role where he has had success
He is effective there because he rarely has to face a hitter twice in the same game.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
Why move him?
Keep him where he is at. He is one of the finest in what he does. Geez why screw this up. Cubs have enough issues, why make the 7th/8th innings one.
Keep him in same spot
Don’t break what works. Marshall is fantastic and is being paid only a small salary. If you’re re-building a team, you don’t get rid of the cheap parts that work and having someone effective in the bullpen is going to help this team more than any trade he’s involved in.
seems like a good guy. do him a favor
trade him
by daily2b on Dec 20, 2011 4:03 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
would be sad to see him go ....
but this may be the time to sell while he is that good . first i would try to see if he would bight on a three year , 4.5 million each deal and if he is looking for more , then trade him .
Trade him now at peak value and build for the future.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
This is a tough question.
Valid points on all sides. Hate to say it, but you almost have to field trade offers for a reliever who’s coming off two straight seasons of insanely good numbers. If Theo & Jed could find a taker for Marmol, I’d consider making Marshall the closer. He’d be a nontraditional choice without power stuff. But I think he has the mindset for it. Otherwise, I’d just assume leave him in his set-up role. As noted above, I fear his stuff — as good as it is in short bursts — just wouldn’t hold up several times through a lineup.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
It is not about Marshall, it is about what one gets in return from all the options
Marshall as a starter (productivity/risk) plus current and future cost
Marshall as a closer (productivity/risk) plus current and future cost
Marshall in trade (productivity/risk of those gained in return) plus current and future cost
as to what is best for the plan that Epstein and Hoyer have.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
There's several problems with leaving him where he's at right now
Trade value is higher now for a full season of him, so if you’re going to trade him, now is the time. This is even more important because this season’s performance can only hurt him. If you wait to trade him at the trade deadline, a good year won’t raise his stock all that much, but a bad year could really kill you.
If you keep him where’s he’s at and he has a decent, but not great, year, the potential haul for a trade goes way, way down.
I’m not crazy about making him the closer, I guess it depends on what you could get for Marmol.
I say trade him now or give him a shot in the rotation. Those are the only moves that potentially maximize his long-term value.
The sun is up. They sky is blue. It's beautiful, and so are you. Dear Prudence, won't you come out to play? ~Lennon & McCartney
by SouthWabashSoul on Dec 20, 2011 6:29 PM CST reply actions
Compensation
Also, if traded mid year, he would no longer bring the receiving team draft pick compensation if he left as a free agent. So, he value would go down for that reason alone.
Eamus Ursuli!
My preference would be to
trade Marmol, move Marshall to closer, and give Shark a chance in the rotation. Time for Shark to sink or swim…I have a hunch that he’ll do pretty well this time around with more pitches and additional experience.
I enjoy this website because it's so interesting to see folks pole vaulting over mouse turds.
No to Shark
He simply doesn’t have the command or pitch arsenal to be effective in the rotation. He’s just not a guy who would be successful the second time through a line-up.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
See the front page for discussion of this topic.
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Uncanny Coincidence that trade talk for Marshall on same day as this post
Next post should be What to do with Soriano and Marmol?
by Mitchener on Dec 21, 2011 1:51 AM CST reply actions 3 recs
"You have nothing to lose, only your waste cost"
… is kind of the reason you can’t do that with Soriano and Marmol.
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5 Innings
is what you get out of Marshall, I thought the Cubs figured this out about 4 years ago and that is why he is remaining in the Bullpen? If I’m wrong can someone inform me.
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