Opportunity Costs And The Sean Marshall Trade

Let's assume you have fifty bucks burning a hole in your pocket. You could go buy some Cubs gear, use it for your next obligation (rent/utilities, etc), enjoy a night on the town, or put it in a savings/retirement account. All have their merits. Most importantly, you can only spend it once. If you get that new Castro replica jersey, there goes your chance at tickets to watch (The Strokes/The Symphony).

When Theo Epstein decided to #OccupyWrigley, he knew he had some decisions to make. Between Zambrano, Soriano, Marmol, and others, he had some hefty contracts. While the talent pipeline had some ability, most of the splash was years away. Epstein and his crew would have to find a way to represent for the next few years until they could become pennant contenders.

To do this, he would need to get something nearing maximum value for the talent on his roster. He would also need to add pieces at 'below market value' to compete, particularly in the 'beyond 2012' portion of his tenure. Some talent evaluation was needed, in a hurry. David DeJesus was added 'on the cheap' to man RF. DJ LeMahieu and Tyler Colvin were sent to Colorado for Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers. But still, some players had to be decided upon. Geo Soto, keeper, or bait? Matt Garza, #1 or #1 available SP for trade?

Sean Marshall had a very workmanlike tenure with the team. A Sixth Round Pick in 2003, he was the source of a few blogposts when with the Cubs. Should he start? Should he be a lefty specialist? It turns out he was a very effective set-up reliever. I don't remember anyone on the board ever 'hating' Sean Marshall. That is a credit in itself, either to his pitching or my bad memory.

Troupe Theo had to decide what to do with Marshall. While Sean Marshall at 3 mil a year is a nice value, he would have been a 2013 free agent. When committing to the future, paying full value is not preferable. So, Marshall could stick at 3 mil, or he could be used as bait. To say that it looks like a good trade is as much about baseball macro-economics as his ability to pitch a scoreless eighth inning.

A person whose opinion I value considers the two pitchers very similar. His opinion may be wrong. Perhaps I should learn to analyze f(X) data myself, but it isn't happening this week. So, what I'm seeing is this. The Cubs dealt a 3 million dollar reliever staring down free agency for a very similar pitcher, near minimum rate, and under team control until 2017. The Cubs will also get a couple minor leaguer for their efforts.

Cincinnati wants to overtake St. Louis and Milwaukee in 2012. They think Marshall will help them do so. In the Cubs situation (50/50 to pass Pittsburgh in 2012 for 4th), saving money to add a salary-controlled starter option plus bait is a good thing. When teams are willing to 'pay a Premium' for Cubs pieces, the offers should be considered seriously.

To be honest, Travis Wood (2005 Draft, 2nd Round) struggled last season. He may whiff as a 4th starter, but Theo must like him, or the trigger wouldn't have been pulled. For the shot at a starter for the next 5 years or so (and prospects), the allure of one more season of Sean Marshall being a solid pen arm was too much.

Loyalty to years through the system will no longer be a prime focus in the Cubs organization. When guys I've followed get dumped for players I'm not sold on may hurt. Sean Marshall was a quality Cub, and I will miss him. My GM crew dealt him for a LHSP and two prospects. Theo was not brought in to keep all our prospects until they lose their value. The goal is now pennants, not Third Place in the NL Central. I wish Sean Marshall well, and look forward to seeing Travis Wood pitch as a Cub, and learning who the other players incoming are.