The Bill James 2012 Handbook and the Cubs
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 28, 2011 1:11 AM CST
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PrintFor Christmas this year, I got myself the Bill James 2012 Handbook. It is $16.47 at Amazon, contains 549 pages and weighs almost two pounds of numbers. Lots of numbers.
Some Cubs 2011 nuggets
The 2011 Cubs were middle of the pack for Offense (8th in Runs scored), but 14th in Pitching (Runs allowed). You could have success with the middle of the pack offense - the Cubs were between NL East Division winner Philadelphia and near Wild Card winner Atlanta. But the pitching gap was obviously too big - from the Cubs to the top NL team (Phillies) was 227 Runs allowed.
A component of the Cubs near last pitching was their Fielding; Dead Last. The Handbook ranks Team Fielding by Fielding Percentage, and while not the best measurement, in this case it is telling. The Cubs were the only NL team with a Fielding Percentage of less than .980 (.978). The Cubs were also the team with the most errors, 134. No other NL team even reached 120.
New for the 2012 Handbook is Team Defense - Defensive Runs Saved by Position and Team. Everyone knows that Third Base was a defensive problem for the Cubs. But it was not the only problem; just the most egregious. While Cubs Third Basemen posted a -17 Runs Saved, the Shortstops had a -15. Individually, Aramis Ramirez was -12 Run Saved and Starlin Castro was -16. I was surprised to see Castro at -16 and next to the biggest trailer, Derek Jeter (-18). If there is going to be an emphasis on defense, Castro's defense must improve or he will need to shift to second base.
Looking Forward to 2012
David DeJesus: How good is he defensively? DeJesus had 13 Defensive Runs Saved and a Plus/Minus of +21. For Right Fielders, DeJesus was near the top of both categories with Jason Heyward and Torii Hunter leading at 15 Runs Saved and a +30 Plus/Minus.
4th and 5th Outfielders:
|
Outfielder |
2012 RC |
RC/27 outs |
2011 Runs Saved |
|
16 |
4.16 |
+9 |
|
|
30 |
3.92 |
-5 |
|
|
18 |
5.44 |
+3 |
The 2012 projections are up for Sappelt but flat for Campana. Sappelt is projected to double his Run Created on the same at-bats as 2011, while Campana actually slips by one.
Starting Pitching Depth: There has been some discussion over Jeff Francis vs. Paul Maholm vs. Joe Saunders. Some of their 2012 projections are surprisingly similar.
|
Pitcher |
2012 Age |
Innings |
ERA |
|
Jeff Francis |
31 |
162 |
4.22 |
|
Paul Maholm |
30 |
161 |
4.22 |
|
Joe Saunders |
31 |
212 |
4.20 |
Travis Wood projects for 72 innings and a 3.75 ERA. I think we can expect more innings after the trade to the Cubs.
The Tyler Colvin for Ian Stewart trade: Before the Hitter Projections there is a narrative review of the 2011 Projections - what they got right and what they got wrong. Colvin and Stewart were together in the category of "There are, finally, the players who do not get the playing time that we project for them because frankly, they suck." Here's hoping they both have bounce back seasons.
On Wrigley Field
I previously purchased the Bill James 2010 Handbook and I noticed that Wrigley Field was favorable to Left Handed Bat Home Runs (LHB HR).
|
Index year(s) |
Runs |
LHB HR |
RHB HR |
|
2007 - 2009 |
113 (3rd) |
126 |
103 |
|
2009 |
115 (3rd) |
139 |
86 |
I expected similar results in the 2012 Handbook, benefitting Prince Fielder if he signed with the Cubs. But both power indices are down.
|
Index year(s) |
Runs |
LHB HR |
RHB HR |
|
2009 - 2011 |
108 (3rd) |
111 |
99 |
|
2011 |
93 (12th) |
101 |
97 |
Basically Wrigley Field was park neutral for power in 2011. Did the early season cool weather impact home runs that much?
But what has remained consistent? The Wrigley Field ballpark index for Infield Errors (E-Inf).
|
Index year(s) |
Runs |
E |
E-Inf |
|
2007 - 2009 |
113 (3rd) |
105 |
117 |
|
2009 |
115 (3rd) |
100 |
119 |
|
2009 - 2011 |
108 (3rd) |
110 |
123 |
|
2011 |
93 (12th) |
112 |
121 |
Why do 20% more Infield Errors occur at Wrigley Field than the average ballpark? Does the scorer at Wrigley Field affect this? I would think to only a small degree. Or is it just a 5 year run of bad bounces?
I highly recommend the Bill James 2012 Handbook. The numbers (and narratives) are engrossing and enlightening.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Just to clarify
Were the team statistics broken up into leagues (AL and NL) and the individual statistics mixed together?
I like the projections for Wood. Hopefully Colvin and Stewart can rise above expectations.
"Keep pushin' til' it's understood. And these badlands start treating us good."
Yes, there are overall Team stats
For Batting, Pitching, and Fielding.
And then they added Team Defense this year which is a matrix with positions on top and teams down the left hand side. Their example is “You’ll be able to look at Yankee shortstops and see that they’re over 50 runs worse than the best shortstops in baseball, who play in Tampa Bay.”
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 28, 2011 10:18 AM CST up reply actions
Bill's from down here in Kansas.
I met him a few years ago, had him autograph his handbook, got a few photos with him, and asked him about the Cubs. The next Sunday the 60 Minutes interview with him aired.
Good post, recommended.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
What would I be sarcastic about?
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Wrigley Field Being Power Neutral
It’s amazing how Wrigley Field and Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium were once considered to be the two best hitter’s parks in the National League. Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium is no more, but Wrigley Field hasn’t changed much. There have so many new ballparks built in the last 15 years or so that are more hitter-friendly than Wrigley is. Of course, how hitter or pitcher friendly Wrigley is literally depends on which way the wind blows. Still, It’s something to think that Wrigley overall is not considered to be in the top tier of hitter’s park anymore. At that, I still think that Wrigley with the wind blowing a gale out to Waveland is the best hitter’s park in the National League. It seems as if that only happens the minority of the time.
Good things come to those who wait... and wait....and wait.
Yep
It’s really badly affected the way we think about putting teams together, too. We’re all aware of the Kingman/Schmidt duel and 22-21, and we remember Roidin’ Sammy and his tape measure home runs and assume we’ve got to build for the three run homer without a lot of team speed, and play Earl Weaver style all the time at Wrigley. That really hamstrings us when we have high strikeout producers running in the power spots and in RBI situations.
[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."
by NobodySpecial on Dec 28, 2011 4:10 PM CST up reply actions
...and watching catchable flies
2-hopping the wall for bases-clearing doubles.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
Remember 2004?
That had to be one of the best examples of what Theo has already stated; “Wrigley is like two different ballparks during a season”
The 04 club would score 20+ runs in a three game stretch and than 2 runs over the next 3 games and the primary reason was wind direction. That club was build with a very one dimensional offense, which you simply can’t do in Wrigley if you want consistant success (see 03 club which didn’t have the boppers, but had good balance).
There is no question that Theo figured this out very quickly and it’s too bad the previous regime experienced the success of 03 and than went in a different direction in the following years.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
The 2003 team did have some boppers - Alou + picking up Aramis at the deadline
But they got Lofton’s OBP/small ball play at the same time they picked up Ramirez. I’ve thought that one of the problems the 2007/2008 teams had in the playoffs was that they couldn’t play to squeeze out a run here and there.
Agree...
…and despite how good Prior and Wood were, the 03 club doesn’t win the division and put itself in terrific position to get in the WS without Lofton.
My point is; you would think Hendry would have recognized this, but apparently he didn’t, because for the next 5-6 years, they never had this piece in place.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Yeah - I thought it was really, really stupid when the team let Lofton walk at the end of 2003
He signed a very affordable contract for 2004 (about $1.5M, I think) and remained an effective player, while the Cubs went all in on Patterson…..:-(
The bit about infield errors...
…reminded me that, either this past season or the season before, Albert Pujols made a brief but telling disparaging remark about the playing conditions at Wrigley while being interviewed by Dave Kaplan. (I remember because I asked Kap on Twitter why he didn’t pursue the issue further and he replied back saying he didn’t have time.)
I know the grounds crew at Wrigley works really hard, so I don’t want to jump all over them. But could the field conditions at the Friendly Confines somehow be substandard when compared with those of other parks? Should the Cubs switch “soil vendors”? Do we have a “soil vendor”?
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
I wondered the same thing and somewhat surprised Wrigley produced so many errors.
One thing that comes to mind in the wind and certainly cold weather days. Would playing more day games produce more errors with the sun in the eyes. Just speculating here but after a total re-do of the playing surface you would think Wrigley would play better now. If anyone knows exactly why this is please post.
We'll miss you Big Boy. #10 is going into the Hall of Fame!!
Yeah, the cold weather factor could be important as well.
It would be interesting to see how other, open-air cold-weather baseball stadiums “performed” in terms of infield errors.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
I think Pujols' remark...
… was made after one of the concerts tore up the field pretty good.
Last year after the McCartney concerts, the field was in good shape.
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Ah, that would explain it.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Busch After U2 Concert
Wasn’t there some complaining about the field conditions at Busch following a U2 concert in St. Louis?
Good things come to those who wait... and wait....and wait.
For just the NL in 2011
Wrigley Field was not the most Infield Error prone. That title belonged to the Reds home park at 138. The Mets and the Pirates home parks were at 116 and even the Marlins were at 120.
Retractable roofs/sides: Brewers at 94, D-backs at 74, Astros at 105.
Given the infrequency of errors, outdoor weather conditions could play significant factor.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 28, 2011 1:27 PM CST up reply actions
It seems like the the wind has blown in more at Wrigley
since the Bleachers were re-done.
Is that correct?
If so, I was wondering if that would have anything to do with Wrigley declining as a power park.
Every day is a beautiful day for baseball!!
I don't know about wind direction
But I do believe the new bleacher structure has cut down some on the wind when it blows in.
Ballhawk? What say you?
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Obviously the expanded bleachers has cut down significantly the number of HRs that make it out to the streets...
…but that’s a rant for another day week month. (shakes fist in general direction of Tribune Tower…)
But yeah, I think it’s safe to assume a higher structure will tend to block more of the wind when it’s blowing in. But the impact on home runs will vary depending on the type of ball that’s hit.
High fly balls will still get knocked down, because they’re higher up in the air a longer time, above the level of the bleacher structure and more susceptible to wind blowing in. Long balls hit more on a line have a better chance of going out because they spend less time above the level of the bleacher structure and thus will be less impacted by the wind blowing in.
No data to back this up – just my opinion. I’m a ballhawk, not Tom Skilling.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I would think
that the ballpark dimensions and normal weather patterns should favor Home Runs at Wrigley. But compared to new ballparks designed with at least one short fence for Home Runs, not as much.
Other than that, I blame everything on Gobal Warming and 2012 Apocalypse predictions.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 29, 2011 7:52 PM CST up reply actions
Any Study On How Wind Blows At Night?
Before 1988, it was a non-issue how the wind blew at Wrigley at night. I realize that there could very well be a faulty cause-effect relationship here, but does the wind tend to blow in or out more at night? Is the wind stronger or weaker at night? Does time of day have anything at all to do with how strong the wind is and which way the wind blows?
Good things come to those who wait... and wait....and wait.
Generally, winds die down at night
… unless a front is coming through.
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The new bleachers
would have nothing to do with what wind direction mother nature chooses. But I could see them actually help line drive HR’s when the wind is blowing in. The dynamics with the bleachers probably changed somewhat but with the wind blowing out I would question the removal of the concrete panels as to helping more balls leave the yard.
We'll miss you Big Boy. #10 is going into the Hall of Fame!!
by mrcubsfan on Dec 28, 2011 7:04 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
i found this interesting
Starlin Castro was -16. I was surprised to see Castro at -16 and next to the biggest trailer, Derek Jeter (-18). If there is going to be an emphasis on defense, Castro’s defense must improve or he will need to shift to second base.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
I found it absurdly premature
BTW, has Jeter’s defense prevented the Yankees from being successful?
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Dec 30, 2011 7:59 AM CST up reply actions
His gold gloves say no!
Ugh… still just can’t believe he’s still winning those….
What's premature?
I don’t think a move is required now. I think Castro can improve defensively, but I’m not sure he will.
And will the Cubs also be fielding a $200M payroll around Castro, like Jeter sees?
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 30, 2011 10:56 AM CST up reply actions
I see this Cubs brass not beholden to fan sentimentality
If Castro cannot adequately or even better ably ‘man’ his defensive position than decisions must be made——-esp. in that defensive position.
A friend once told me: "I don't buy the idea that a team learns anything from a loss, the only thing they learn is how to lose games."---Knight
And that's fine...
But trying to make the call that a 21 year old with great range and a great arm that has some mental mistakes and sometimes throws balls he should hold needs to be moved off SS is kind of ridiculous. I personally cannot believe how much it comes up here.
Nobody is making a call yet
But I was surprised that Castro’s Runs Saved was worse that Ramirez’s, yet Ramirez is the one who gets bagged all the time for his defense.
Castro has time to improve and a better defensive team around him could help. But if he doesn’t and you have the opportunity to get a great defensive SS, it should not be off the table.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 30, 2011 12:14 PM CST up reply actions
Life on a cubs blog. Moderation isn’t really a commodity.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Dec 30, 2011 5:23 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
calling for Castroto be moved out of SS is way premature
yet many here keep doing it.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Dec 30, 2011 1:25 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not setting out a deadline or a timeline
Given the Cubs rebuilding mode, this is an excellent time to stick with Castro at SS and make his defense better.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 30, 2011 3:58 PM CST up reply actions
And since he's going to be 22 just before the season starts
… there’s a pretty good chance he can improve.
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I don't remember many 22 year old Gold Glove SS.
Not sayin’ there were none. Whether he gets better will depend on how hard he works on it. He could be quite good, if he wants to be.
Maybe Ozzie?
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run FOR Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Nope
Won his first at age 25. Had 25 errors in his age 23 rookie year. Still had 24 errors at age 25 when he won his first GG. Castro still has lots of time to develop.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run FOR Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Yes, he does.
The people who seem to be writing him off as a SS already need to take a very deep breath.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jan 4, 2012 11:03 AM CST up reply actions
He led the league in assists, putouts, and errors last year.
His fielding average went from .950 to .961. With a similar increase over the next couple of seasons as he matures lets say he gets to a .980 fielding percentage which would put him 4th in the NL, with the most total chances. I think we would all take that.
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