The Cubs Should Sign Yu Darvish
by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2011 9:00 AM CST
in Chicago Cubs Essays
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PrintYes, you read that headline right. The Cubs should absolutely, positively bid whatever it takes to get Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish via posting fee, then sign him to a five-year deal.
Like that isn't going to stir up controversy around here, right?
I know, I know. You're still a little leery of all Japanese players after the Kosuke Fukudome experience. That was a lot of money, and didn't work out so well. And you're thinking that Theo Epstein would be cautious about this sort of thing after he spent $100 million plus on Dasiuke Matsuzaka, hoping they'd have a dominant starting pitcher, and instead getting John Maine (Maine is Dice-K's most similar pitcher, according to his baseball-reference page).
And you're also thinking: Japanese pitchers rarely work out the way they're supposed to. Only one Japanese pitcher who has made 100 or more MLB starts has posted a career ERA under 4.00 -- that's Hiroki Kuroda, who the Cubs have been linked to in various rumors. But Kuroda will be 37 in February; there's risk in signing him at that age. Only one Japanese pitcher has managed to make more than 200 starts in the major leagues -- Hideo Nomo -- and even then, Nomo had some spectacular failures and had to reinvent himself a couple of times.
Darvish is different. Follow me past the jump to find out why.
Here are Darvish's career stats in NPB, via his Wikipedia page:
| Nippon Professional Baseball | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Age | Team | W | L | W% | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | ERA | WHIP | league ERA |
| 2005 | 18 | Nippon Ham | 5 | 5 | .500 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 94.1 | 97 | 37 | 37 | 7 | 48 | 52 | 3.53 | 1.54 | 4.06 |
| 2006 | 19 | 12 | 5 | .706 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 149.2 | 128 | 55 | 48 | 12 | 64 | 115 | 2.89 | 1.28 | 3.62 | |
| 2007 | 20 | 15 | 5 | .750 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 207.2 | 123 | 48 | 42 | 9 | 49 | 210 | 1.82 | 0.83 | 3.57 | |
| 2008 | 21 | 16 | 4 | .800 | 24 | 10 | 2 | 200.2 | 136 | 44 | 42 | 11 | 44 | 208 | 1.88 | 0.90 | 3.90 | |
| 2009 | 22 | 15 | 5 | .750 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 182 | 118 | 36 | 35 | 9 | 45 | 167 | 1.73 | 0.90 | 4.03 | |
| 2010 | 23 | 12 | 8 | .600 | 25 | 10 | 2 | 202 | 158 | 48 | 40 | 5 | 47 | 222 | 1.78 | 1.01 | 3.94 | |
| 2011 | 24 | 18 | 6 | .750 | 28 | 10 | 6 | 232 | 156 | 42 | 37 | 5 | 36 | 276 | 1.44 | 0.83 | 2.95 | |
| Career | 93 | 38 | .710 | 164 | 55 | 18 | 1268.1 | 916 | 310 | 281 | 58 | 333 | 1259 | 1.99 | 0.98 |
|
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First of all, Darvish is 25. He doesn't turn 26 until next August. The overwhelming majority of players that have come to North America from NPB are in their early 30s -- thus assuring that the MLB teams signing them are not getting their peak years. This appears to be the case with Fukudome, who turned 31 about a month after his Cubs debut. Same for Kazuhiro Sasaki, who posted 129 saves for the Mariners from 2000-2003 -- 32 when he came to the USA. Tadahito Iguchi, the second baseman for the 2005 World Champion White Sox? 30 during that year; he had a couple of decent seasons, then tailed off.
I could go on, but you get the point. The only Japanese players who have truly succeeded for an extended period of time are Ichiro Suzuki -- who came to MLB at age 27 -- and Hideki Matsui, who made the transition at 29. Nomo, who had a mid-career slide mostly due to injuries, first pitched for the Dodgers at age 26.
So being posted at 25 is exactly right. Whoever signs Darvish will be getting his prime years.
Now, check out the numbers he has already posted in NPB. He doesn't walk people. He doesn't give up many hits or runs -- he has posted ERAs under 2.00 for five consecutive seasons, and almost had WHIPs under 1.00 all five of those years, barely going over that mark at 1.01 in 2010. Even if you think NPB competition isn't quite what MLB is, that is absolute dominance. No other Japanese pitcher currently in NPB is anywhere close to those kind of numbers. Look, for example, at his ERA compared to the league. There aren't a ton of innings on his arm, either; over that five-year period of dominance he has averaged about 204 innings, not an extraordinary total.
Note that he has never made 30 starts in a season, but has thrown about the number of innings a 34-start MLB starter would, in several of the years. The reason for this is pretty clear -- his total of complete games. But MLB managers don't use starters that way; exactly two MLB pitchers have had 10 or more CG in a season since 2000: CC Sabathia, 10 in 2008, and James Shields, 11 in 2011. If the Cubs do wind up signing Darvish, there's no way Dale Sveum makes him throw that many CG. Nor would any one of us want him to, either.
Darvish is also a very different physical specimen than most Japanese athletes, who tend to be of average size. His baseball-reference bullpen page lists him at 6-5, 215. That's big enough to look pretty scary on a major league mound. By comparison, he is about the same size as Kerry Wood, who is listed at 6-5, 210.
If you have not seen this video, check him out striking out former Cub Matt Murton:
Murton was a decent major league player and is a star in NPB. Darvish made him look silly. But also check out Darvish's mound presence in that video. It's clear that he has a plan out there, even from this single at-bat; he's got an excellent selection of pitches and isn't afraid to use them.
One of the biggest problems with the 2011 Cubs was starting pitching, as you well know. While the Cubs are likely not going to contend in 2012, that is no reason that it isn't the right time to put some of the building blocks in place to contend in the future. With Darvish and Matt Garza at the top of the Cubs' rotation, backed up by Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells, the Cubs suddenly have a solid one-through-four. (Yes, I deliberately left Carlos Zambrano off this list. I have no idea what's going to happen with him and I still think the team is better off if they deal him.)
I've written before about the awful pitchers paraded through the Cubs' rotation in 2011 and the fact that with even league-average performance instead of James Russell, Doug Davis, Casey Coleman, Rodrigo Lopez and Ramon Ortiz, the Cubs could have been a .500 team in 2011. Now, add a potential top pitcher like Darvish... and things could turn around quickly.
It's been speculated that the posting fee for Darvish will be around $30 million -- quite a bit of money, but less than the $51,111,111.11 posted by Theo's Red Sox for Dice-K. Take that and add a five-year deal for around $60 million and the Cubs will have a top starter in his prime years. And if they don't come to a contract agreement, the Cubs get the posting fee back. This ESPN Dallas article explains how it works:
* Teams have until next Wednesday to submit a sealed bid to MLB. Clubs won't have any idea what the other teams are bidding, but the team with the highest bid will be sent to the Fighters.
* They then have four business days to determine if they accept the bid.
* If they do, the MLB club then has 30 days to negotiate with Darvish and hammer out a deal.
* If no deal is reached, the MLB club does not pay the posting fee and Darvish returns to play in Japan for another year.
Go get him, Theo & Jed. This is the splash the Cubs need to make.
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I'd be all for it ...
if this was simply giving him a large contract. But that posting fee would pretty much eat up every dollar in savings from contracts coming off the books to say nothing of the actual contract for Darvish.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
by elgato on Dec 9, 2011 9:12 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Personally, I think he'd be worth it.
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You realize ...
that going this route pretty much ensures that Bryan LaHair is our starting first baseman next year? The Cubs would have to move a ton of money around through trades, and Soriano has no market and Marmol’s market is thinner without San Diego or Toronto.
And I’m not sure who else (who has a big contract) could be dealt, other than Garza.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
The Cubs can win with pitching.
As I noted, they could have been a .500 team last year with decent starting pitching. Darvish makes the starting rotation lots better.
With Ian Stewart likely penciled in at 3B, I guess I’d have to live with LaHair at 1B.
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That doesn't make sense.
The Cubs aren’t bringing back to key run producers in Ramirez and Pena. Do you really think Stewart and LaHair would equal their production? Instead of having a mediocre lineup and bad pitching, we’d have a bad lineup and mediocre pitching.
That’s the problem with Darvish. He might be a fine pitcher. But the posting fee means he pretty much rules out the Cubs acquiring him AND a much needed bat through free agency.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Hee hee. You guys are killing me!
“LaHair.”
C’mon, is his name really Jones or something?
"It's all in the game, yo"
I must be missing the joke.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
He's male so I assume it's LeHair
If the Cubs still have a chance, no matter how small, it’s still Go Cubs, damn the math and pass the KoolAid. I'm a Sheeple and proud of it!
Spelling and grammar errors are included for creative and artistic reasons.
you hopefully could make up some production
with Dejesus in right. And Jackson producing for the team. Soto most likely will have a better year too.
But that's not the stated direction
Pitching, defense, and more athletic on the bases. And getting younger. The Cubs knew they were not bringing back Ramirez, and Pena was at most a one year stop-gap.
If you’re thinking about 2012 only, no Darvish will probably not lead the Cubs to the post-season. But if he works out, he is a SP that you can build around. So he fits with the Cubs stated direction.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 9, 2011 10:21 AM CST up reply actions
That's a general outline.
The Cubs just traded Tyler Colvin and DJL for an older player. They signed a 32-year-old to play right.
The point is, a guy like Fielder has enough pluses (youth, OBP) that he might still fit under TheoJed’s loose plan.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
You could say the same thing about Darvish.
Youth, dominant fastball, control.
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Fielder is a known commodity.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Yes, he is.
I would argue that Darvish is, as well, because of his dominance in NPB.
One thing you can’t teach is control. Look at those WHIP figures. Awesome, IMO.
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Come on Al...
Dominance in NPB is not the strongest indicator of MLB success.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 10:56 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
True in many cases.
I happen to believe that Darvish is the exception to that.
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Obviously you believe that...
some of us are just trying to understand why you believe it.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 10:59 AM CST up reply actions
And getting Matt Murton out isn't really convincing.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
A projection on Darvish from Baseball Forecaster 2011
At worst, an above-average ML #3 SP. At best, Randy Johnson, only better looking.
That was before this year. Given that he’s continued his dominance, I can only imagine that he’ll be a capable #2 SP.
That's what I figure him to be
A very good #2 pitcher. Kind of like Cole Hamels. (just in value. He’s got a different arsenal.)
by Josh Timmers on Dec 9, 2011 12:39 PM CST up reply actions
See, I read this...
…and can come around a little to Al’s way of thinking. If he could come to the Cubs and put up the kind of value Hamels has for the Phillies over the last five years, the money would be well-spent.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
I hate the IF's in all of this talk
That is what we did the past two years If Soriano Does OK and if Zambrano doesn’t throw a fit we could contend. This guy is going to cost way too much. I voted yes but I want that vote back.
Well, there are IFs with every player.
But if Darvish could pitch to Cole Hamels’ level, he could bring back enough value to justify the cost. I do agree it’s a tough decision.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Well, I can imagine the he could also be not that good...
and given how much $ will be involved in getting him, I’m not in the camp of people who think the risk is worth taking.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 12:47 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Fair enough.
Agree to disagree on this one.
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Ok...
and I’ll even step out in front, here and now, and say that even IF Theo/Jed decide to try and get him…I think it’s the wrong thing to do.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 2:37 PM CST up reply actions
Fair enough too.
You think it’s wrong. I think it’s right. We’ll find out, because he’s going to sign with someone. I hope it’s the Cubs.
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Allright. Arguement postponed upon hindsight.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 2:38 PM CST up reply actions
Wait.
Did you two just agree to disagree amicably?
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
No...
just wait until I get to use the “hindsight”.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 2:44 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
If you do, I'll whine and complain that hindsight is 20/20.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 5:14 PM CST up reply actions
Of course you will.
I’d expect nothing less.
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STOP AGREEING WITH MY UNREASONABLE COMMENTS.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 5:19 PM CST up reply actions
No.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 5:42 PM CST up reply actions
They are impressive...
…but I wonder how they would change if MLB hitters start fouling off his breaking stuff and hitting his fastballs for line drives. Again, it’s just hard to say with any certainty how any of those stats would translate.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
I would argue that Darvish is, as well, because of his dominance in NPB.
Then you would be arguing a falsehood.
by Nunyabidness on Dec 9, 2011 11:13 AM CST up reply actions
gotta disagree
Darvish is much closer to the definition of ‘unknown’ than ‘known’ commodity.
Might be a risk, an uknown, but...
Given what we have in our minors system, with Cashner (health, RP or SP?) and Coleman (bad ‘11 SP) and McNutt (injury, mechanical issues), what’s the harm in trying for someone who has “pro” experience and great upside?
Ian Stewart is 26
Tyler Colvin is 25. Not exactly an “older player”. And they signed a 32 year-old who is known to play good defense and runs well to only a 2-year deal.
If the Cubs got Fielder, I’m fine with that. They will decide what their risk tolerance is for a Fielder/Pujols like contract given where the Cubs are at this point in time.
But the Cubs should consider Darvish and Cespedes as well.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 9, 2011 10:39 AM CST up reply actions
I don't see Cespedes having a position.
My only point earlier was that I doubt TheoJed have any problem expanding their strategy, at the right price for the right player.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Shoulda just gone after CJ Wilson
Yah, he’s older than Darvish but he was cheaper (five-year, $77.5 million), left-handed, and most importantly a proven commodity.
I'm wet nurse to a last-place, dead-to-the-neck-up ball club, and I'm choking to death!
"Proven"?
As in two years’ worth of starting pitching?
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In terms of MLB experience
Plus, you need to figure-in the reduced mileage on CJ’s arm
I'm wet nurse to a last-place, dead-to-the-neck-up ball club, and I'm choking to death!
I believe Wilson was set on going to LA
Marlins offered more money and years.
all of your "Cubs should sign"
so and so has been completely wrong. you sound like the typical sign big names Cubs fan. So sad that this is exactly what has been wrong with this team. Good job with the “blog”
by Cold Hotdogs and Warm Beer on Dec 11, 2011 7:27 PM CST up reply actions
That's not even close to being accurate
So sad that this is exactly what has been wrong with this team.
Jim Hendry didn’t go after the elite free agents for the most part. He went after second-tier free agents and gave them close to top-tier money. That was a big problem. He had no plan and was reactive.
Step Two: Develop an organizational plan
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 11, 2011 7:43 PM CST up reply actions
Please enlighten us to what is "right"
Since you are obviously in the know.
Agreed.
You make a good argument, Al. I’ll admit that my inclination against signing him had to do with the posting fee, the Fukudome experience and the frustrations with past Japanese pitchers. This video though was pretty impressive; consistently humming pitches in there between 95-97 and the fact that he is only going to be 26 next year. And, yeah I say let the Yankees or some other bidder snag Kuroda.
Inspiring the Kicking of Tires Since November 2011...
Savings for who?
It’s not my money. Baseball has no cap, so I could not possibly care less what the Cubs have to spend.
Only in salary cap leagues do I worry about salaries.
I’m not familiar with Darvish’s work enough to have a super strong opinion of this, only to say that anything that eases the way for Zambrano to leave is fine with me.
"It's all in the game, yo"
We know the the Cubs payroll will not change much from last year.
We know how much money is coming off the books. It’s about $30 million.
If Ricketts is giving Theo the go ahead to increase that to get Darvish, then I withdraw my objection. But we have no reason to think that as of now.
In other words, spending $30 million on a posting fee and then giving Darvish, say $10 million pretty much means we can’t make any other moves this offseason.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I thought since the CBA changed the plan of Theo/Cubs that the checks were left "blank"
According to Bruce Levine (this is from, I believe 2 weeks ago):
Todd (Kansas city)
What Minor league prospects do you see making an apperance next year for the Cubs? I like getting the Cuban prospect much more than Darvish – given the high cost. Thoughts?
Bruce Levine
(1:31 PM)
Again, the Cubs will go after the best young talent available, weither via trade or international — they won’t be afraid to spend money. The wallet is open and Theo has been given the go-ahead to spend as he sees fit. There are lots of ways to get good young talent and they will check all those avenues.
"Beisbol been berry berry good to me." -Tony Oliva
Red flags:
—Rock star ego
—Most all players from Japanese league have not translated well in MLB
—Huge financial commitment for a player that has thrown 0 innings in MLB or MLB-related leagues
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Dec 9, 2011 9:17 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
The rock star ego is exactly what has made Ichiro a success in MLB
I’ve noted some of the reasons why Japanese players have not succeeded in MLB — Darvish is quite different from those who have preceded them.
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Would you say the same
about Bryce Harper? If he was magically declared a free agent tomorrow, would you want the Cubs to pass on him?
And saying Bryce Harper has a “rock star ego” is an insult to rock stars.
by Josh Timmers on Dec 9, 2011 11:15 AM CST up reply actions
Bryce Harper is much more of a known quantity than Darvish.
There’s also the fact that we wouldn’t have to pay Bryce Harper $30 million just to talk to him
by Nunyabidness on Dec 9, 2011 11:18 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with the second part
but the first part (known quantity) isn’t correct.
The level of competition in the JPB is certainly higher than that of a US high school or JC.
Might be getting closer with A+ to AA ball. Harper dominated in A+, but not when he moved up to AA.
Now, I’m not arguing at all that Darvish will be better than Harper. But based on where they have competed and how they have fared…. either both are known quantities or both are unknown quantities, depending on your standards.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
That's not true
Darvish has been scouted a lot longer than Harper has. He’s only a “known quantity” to fans who don’t follow the international game.
As far as paying the money just to talk to Darvish, you do understand that if you don’t sign Darvish, you pay nothing? It’s not a fee to sign the player. It’s a pre-arranged sale price.
by Josh Timmers on Dec 9, 2011 11:44 AM CST up reply actions
Not a fee to talk to the player
Man, I should just keep to myself today. And proofread better.
by Josh Timmers on Dec 9, 2011 11:45 AM CST up reply actions
Yes
but it’s not “just to talk to him.” It’s a pre-arranged sale price. And it gives you exclusive negotiating rights, so you don’t have to worry about anyone else bidding for him.
They are paying money on top of a contract
Since you’re advocating SIGNING him, that money would be part of it right?
I get you think you proved me “wrong” because of my wording, but the point still stands, he’d be expensive.
Well, you're right.
And so is Josh. It IS money on top of a contract. But if you can’t agree to the contract, you don’t lose the money.
If you do agree, yes, it costs you more than just the contract. Presumably, teams factor that into what they are going to bid in the posting process, and what they are going to offer contractually.
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But what people are not realizing
is that money gives you EXCLUSIVE (I guess you can’t make a point around here without capitalizing a key word these days) and that exclusivity lowers the actual value of the contract.
It’s like dealing with a draft pick. He can’t take your offer to the Yankees and say “Can you beat that?” If Darvish wants to play MLB, then he has to take the offer from the team that wins the bid. The posting fee LOWERS the amount of money that he can COMMAND in the MARKET.
Sure, it "lowers the actual value of the contract",
but you’re still paying a premium in overall dollar value to sign the guy. If we had two identical players, and were to offer identical contracts to them, one from the Japanese league and one not, the former would cost more thanks to the posting fee.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
He's still young. You can't assume it's going to lower his value, because he could say
“alright, I’m going to go back to Japan, I’ll see what people are willing to pay me next year.”
No matter how you want to slice this Josh, you are paying more money.
Look, argue that Darvish is well worth the money we would be paying him
and we can agree to disagree.
Claim that Darvish isn’t REALLY going to be expensive and I have to call bullshit
by Nunyabidness on Dec 9, 2011 7:33 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
But is it lowered by more than the posting fee? If so, then congrats - you've got a bargain.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I didn't say that Harper had a "rock star ego"
and no, I wouldn’t pass on Bryce Harper. I posted below that I feel that the American game is different than the Japanese and Korean game and that’s why I think that they don’t succeed nearly as much as the high-profile players developed in the MLB minor league system
BEAR DOWN!
Sveum Game '12
No, I did
Harper’s ego is off the charts. You said Darvish’s ego was a reason not to sign him. Is that not a reason not to sign Harper?
by Josh Timmers on Dec 9, 2011 11:46 AM CST up reply actions
I have no idea why you think I said that
Dan said he had the rock star ego and I just responded to something Al said.
BEAR DOWN!
Sveum Game '12
Wow.
Josh said it. Josh said that Josh said it. Josh did not say that you said it.
Josh was using that as an example.
You: “Ego is a reason not to sign Darvish”
Josh: “Harper also has an ego. Would you not sign Harper?”
You: “I would sign Harper”
No offense intended, really, but the fact that you needed that spelled out probably is an indication that you don’t see the inconsistency in your argument.
Step Two: Develop an organizational plan
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 13, 2011 9:33 AM CST up reply actions
really? i thought it was his ability to hit a baseball and catch a baseball, very very very well.
i have a rockstar ego….i now declare my self a free agent.
So i you can give you can take it.
Cripes.
Of course it’s the baseball talent. But beyond that, Ichiro had the right type of personality to make it in MLB — something Fukudome didn’t.
Darvish has that. It matters.
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The right kind of personality?
You’re saying that was Kosuke’s problem — and that you know that Darvish won’t have the same one?
To HUGE guesses, Al.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Yes, guesses.
Based on what I’ve heard about Darvish, and what we know about Fukudome.
Kosuke never seemed comfortable in MLB. Contrast that with Ichiro, or even Hideki Matsui.
No, that’s not measurable. It’s an opinion. Yours may differ.
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Let's address Kosuke:
The Kosuke’s-not-comfortable argument worked for a year. Maybe two. The sad fact is that after 2007, Kosuke Fukudome was just supremely overrated by the Cubs and a few other teams. The Cubs (who still misjudged him) were unlucky enough to win the bidding. For the following four years, the Cubs had to keep trotting him out there in hopes that maybe, one day, he’d be as good as everyone thought he was going to be. THAT was his problem.
As for Darvish … I’m not sure you can assume someone’s comfort level based on things you’ve heard. Maybe you can.
I’d be more worried that Darvish will cost a TON of money (at a time when we don’t have much to spare) and we’ll have another Kosuke (or another Daisuke).
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
by elgato on Dec 9, 2011 10:10 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
When I say "not comfortable"
… it has nothing to do with the time spent here. It has to do with his personality; it didn’t really seem to ever fit in.
Now, about the talent level, I’d agree, he was probably overrated. I don’t see that issue with Darvish, who completely dominates his league.
AND he’s 25, not 30.
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Kosuke was pretty dominant in Japan, too.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Not to the extent that Darvish is.
It could be that Kosuke’s injury took away the power he had in Japan. Also, only one player (Hideki Matsui) has been able to translate power in Japan to MLB.
Pitchers have had more success coming over, especially younger ones like Nomo.
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Dome won every damn award you could possibly win in Japan!
He won MVPs, batting titles, Olympic medals and WBC medals, Gold Gloves, played short, third, outfield, hit for power and average. He won every. single. award. you. could. possibly. win.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Right.
My point is that Dome was about as successful a player in the Japanese league as one could ask for. Like, exactly ask for.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Sure
but he was also coming off an injury that cost him almost an entire season and was on the wrong side of 30.
Despite that, he still produced at a MLB league average level. He is a decent MLB player. Just overpaid.
by Josh Timmers on Dec 9, 2011 11:50 AM CST up reply actions
That seems like a prerequisite for players from the Japanese leagues.
You’re going to have to overpay for them because nobody is actually sure of their production translation and some people like to roll the dice.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
But he never had his Cubs Teammates over for a BBQ Dan....
hell, they guy never even bothered to bring in any of his wife’s extra brownies to the clubhouse. He was an outsider, like Pony Boy.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 10:51 AM CST up reply actions
I heard he refused also to carry the pink Hello Kitty backpack.
"Fast Don't Lie"
by Sandberg's evil twin on Dec 9, 2011 11:05 AM CST up reply actions
That's a cultural no-no.
Everybody knows you gotta carry the HK backpack.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Do you mean he never seemed to fit in...
…in the clubhouse? Or on the field? He seemed to get along with everyone quite well. He just never really found much consistency at the plate.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
To be fair to Dome,
he had decent value in getting on-base and defensive skills. Problem was, neither of those were very helpful when the rest of his team sucked.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
And when his contract was so lucrative ...
that it prohibited other movies.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
*moves
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Well, for a corner outfielder,
I don’t really care too much about getting on-base. I would have rather had a power hitter.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
What do you mean?
The Cubs had movie night last October!
:-)
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wait...so i cant be a rockstar in the MLB now?
my emotions…quit playing with them.
So i you can give you can take it.
"Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet emoooooooooooooooooootion...."
You talk about things that nobody cares
You’re wearing out things that nobody wears
You’re calling my name but I gotta make clear
I can’t say baby where I’ll be in a year…
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
From everything I've read over the decade or so,
Ichiro hasn’t really cared about acclimating himself to his American team and/or fansbase. Not that he is a bad teammate, but his life is clearly elsewhere.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
this site is wild sometimes man, i think what Al is alluding to is "moxy"
you hear about it every sunday, “that qb has moxy” etc. guys who dont fail. see: david carr. guys who do, have a higher chance of succes, see: cam newton.
its about having that attitude about you that gives you an opportunity to roll with the punches.
So you're telling me Tim Tebow is going to be our starting pitcher?
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
"Winning!"
Odd how he and Charlie Sheen seem to have that phrase in common…
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I wouldn't call what Milledge had "moxy".
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Ugh.
USS Mariner, probably one of the best sources for stuff like this, talked about it in 2008.
“I just can’t believe the number of guys who really dislike him,” said one clubhouse insider. “It got to a point early on when I thought they were going to get together and go after him.”
If Ichiro was on my team, I’d kick him off.
Alright Al, you like backing up facts, your turn.
Dan
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Dec 9, 2011 10:28 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Hmmm.
I’ll have to look around. You could be right.
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That's an interesting pair of web pages you used there
There’s the Seattle Times link with a credible reporter and an unnamed clubhouse source.
Then there’s the “If Ichiro was on my team, I’d kick him off.” line. Which is just from some guy on a web page named “Alex”. And that’s just his opinion. And in the same article the guy says “It’s not that I don’t like Ichiro. I don’t know him, so honestly, who am I to judge?”
So, no facts from you here. Maybe one credible report out of the 3.
The amazing thing to me is how theses bad teammate reports crop up at the end of his career.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 9, 2011 11:11 AM CST up reply actions
Correct me if I'm wrong, but USSM was created by Dave Cameron.
And a newspaper publication is pretty damn authoritative to me, especially when it took me all of 11 seconds to find dozens of these reports. If it was one report, then I’d be concerned. This isn’t a new thing, Ichiro being a sketchy teammate. From my uderstanding it’s pretty widely known in the Seattle area.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
I'm not much for the - If Ichiro was on my team, I’d kick him off.
That looks like it’s just from some guy on the web.
And since the Cubs aren’t signing Ichiro, his relationship to his teammates is not that significant.
If you want to generalize, I think players do tend to be closer to teammates from their own country or who at least speak the same language. Latin players probably have it better than Japanese players just due to the volume of Latin players in MLB.
As for rock stars, I think anyone posting for Darvish will probably have assessed his adaptability as a teammate in MLB and in the US. if he’s had previous American teammates, they probably have gotten some calls.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 9, 2011 11:29 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah, that last quote is definitely from some guy on the web that owns a website.
…
However, the other two are more than legit. My point wasn’t to question the credibility of the source, it was to show that at all three levels: a newspaper, a top-tier blog (Dave Cameron!) and po-dunk website, this issue has been discussed. It’s not some hidden topic.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
I don't think that's true at all
Ichiro appears to be quite Americanized. I believe he spends most of the offseason here. Even though he doesn’t do it in media interviews, he speaks perfect English.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Dec 10, 2011 1:01 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I dunno the guy.
Just some reports and articles I’ve read throughout the years. You may be right.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
What is with all this Fukudome bashing?
He’s been a major league average hitter for the past four seasons. No, he hasn’t justified his contract, but to say that he hasn’t made it in MLB is just wrong.
by Josh Timmers on Dec 9, 2011 11:48 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I think the point is ...
that we don’t even want to overpay for another Japanese player who is decent but not THAT good.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
by elgato on Dec 9, 2011 11:49 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
THIS
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 11:52 AM CST up reply actions
FTFY....
What is with all this Fukudome CONTRACT bashing?
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 11:53 AM CST up reply actions
Wow, you're exactly right.
As of right now, Kosuke’s OPS+ and wRC+ are both precisely 100. Perfectly league average.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Are you arguing just to argue now?
No, he hasn’t justified his contract
You KNOW that is what most people are concerned about. Never mind that he is mediocre.
Add
- Nearly 1,300 competitive innings on his arm during his formative years;
- Impending personal problems that are a wild card;
- Assimilation to U.S. culture is never easy;
- Paying a significant premium for a guy used to getting out failed MLB’s like Matt Murton and random countrymen
Pass.
What is the nature of these impending personal problems?
And his assimilation to U.S. culture may be easier than usual because he’s already spent a significant amount of time here. I’d agree that the other two items you mention are cause for skepticism.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Yes, he's getting divorced.
But these are not “pending” problems. What I read is that he was waiting until the divorce was, essentially, final until deciding whether to post or not.
Further to the US culture thing, his parents met at a US college (Eckerd). I presume they’re quite familiar with American culture and so is their son.
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Yes
He has the advantage that both of his parents speak English. I don’t know how good his is: I’m sure he studied it in school like all Japanese kids, but they don’t always learn to speak it.
Darvish is a bit of a rock star in Japan. Tabloid fodder, too. He would probably like the relative anonymity that he’d get in the US, although I’m sure the Japanese press will follow him here.
Where/who is the speculation coming from on the $30M posting fee?
I have a hard time believing that it’s going to be $20M less than what Dice-K went for. You’ve done a very good job of outlining why going after Darvish makes sense, even if you’re leery because of what happened with Dice-K. Why then would the posting fee be that much less?
If “everyone” is saying $30M, you can almost guarantee someone is going to come in higher. If Theo thinks Darvish is the real deal, then he better pony up big-time on the posting fee. You can always try to recoup some of that in the contract negotiations (or not), but the posting fee is a one-shot deal.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I do feel like the projected posting fees have been low-balled.
Regardless, I am confident that if Darvish is worth it, we have the front office that knows how to get him.
Inspiring the Kicking of Tires Since November 2011...
Agreed
The posting will be at least $40 million. Might not hit $50 though.
by Josh Timmers on Dec 9, 2011 11:53 AM CST up reply actions
Is Darvish considered better or worse than Dice-K?
The posting fee for Dice-K was $51.1MM
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 9, 2011 12:39 PM CST up reply actions
His stats are better.
He dominated more than Dice-K in the Japan league. I think Darvish’s posting fee will be a bit less given teams’ reluctance. Maybe he’ll get more salary for himself, though, if teams can save on the posting fee.
Not if the Yankees are in
And they’re starved for pitching as much as anyone. I wouldn’t be so sure they wouldn’t bid $50+ million
And the Angels weren't in on Pujols
I wouldn’t count the Yankees out of anything
Darvish is considered better than Matsuzaka
but the winning bid for Dice-K was $15 million more than the second place bid. After Matsuzaka, I think teams will be reluctant to break the $50 million barrier.
Murton was a decent major league player and is a star in NPB. Darvish made him look silly
Lots of pitchers made Murton look silly. If they hadn’t he’d still be here.
I’m not sure how Darvish striking out an INCREDIBLY mediocre player is supposed to convince me we need him.
I don't think Al was implying that he was Nolan Ryan because he struck out Murton.
Inspiring the Kicking of Tires Since November 2011...
I don't Nunya was implying that.
But I bet we could find instances where David Patton struck out good hitters, too. Showing the results of one at-bat is pretty meaningless.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
All I see when I read David Patton is Pujole breaking the Big Mac sign at Busch...
"Beisbol been berry berry good to me." -Tony Oliva
No,
but in the MLB he’s going to have to do more than just throw high fastballs until they miss one. I would’ve been more impressed seeing him work in and out of the strike zone and mixing up his pitches.
The low walk rate is great, but not sustainable imo. Unless he is more unhittable in the zone than any pitcher in the majors, he won’t be able to survive pitching in the zone that often. He is going to have to pitch outside the zone or get crushed routinely here. He may be able to make the Matt Murton’s of the world miss his fastball, but that’s why Murton is a star there and couldn’t hold a bench spot here.
The fact that Murton is a star there makes me even more leery of signing Darvish to a huge contract. I get that he’s different than many of the other Japanese players who have come over, and I get wanting to find a star at less than retail value—I just think it is an enormous gamble. I’d rather spend the money on an enormous player, like Fielder, and trade for someone like Trevor Cahill, who is also young and we know can pitch in America.
Not to mention
both times he went up and out of the zone, the catcher was set up in a completely different location, low and away.
What if Darvish were a Nazgûl, riding a winged horse while slaying Murton (and his unicorn) with just a wave of his hand
and completely obliterating every rainbow and puppy in sight?
Oh, and rendered Woo-woo mute in the process?
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Dec 9, 2011 9:31 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Well, that last part would get me on his side no matter what else he did.
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I think there might be similarities to Gollum and Woo-woo-wooooooooo
"Fast Don't Lie"
by Sandberg's evil twin on Dec 9, 2011 10:51 AM CST up reply actions
I'm thinking Crane Kenney as Saruman and Woo-woo as Grima Wormtongue ;-)
Hey, this could be fun…
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I remember a few years back seeing a video that Iguchi had compiled to showcase his highlights for MLB teams to view before he was signed from Japan
With the right production, I would LOVE to see a similar/parody video for Darvish following your script… :)
I work with his uncle...
the family has all kinds of talent among themselves. Yu’s cousin is a great soccer pro (I dont know where, just know about what I was told) When I talked to Joe, (Yu’s uncle), he stated that he is a well grounded kid and his parents very protective about his behavior. So I think we should take a stab at him. He’s got great character and upbringing and buttloads of talent. He just needs to add some weight, IMO.
Can't wait for the Cubs in '08!!!
by fuzzycubfan on Dec 9, 2011 9:26 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
WHY?????
Yes, I read your arguments.
You seriously advocate that the Cubs spend $90 million on ONE person, who plays, at best, every 5 days when there are SO MANY other holes on the team?
Can he play 1st, 2nd or 3rd on his days off or when Ian still hasn’t hit above .200 by July?
For a team going nowhere, and not making any moves that counter that statement, it simply makes no sense to spend that kind of money on someone with absolutely no proven track record in MLB.
$90 million wouldn't all be spent in one year, you know.
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Absolutely agree with Al...
…with the available dollars, Cubs need pitching first, pitching second, defense third, speed fourth, and occasional Sheffield Avenue moonballs last.
by jtcitrus on Dec 9, 2011 9:45 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Available Dollars?
I’ve yet to read anything that indicates what the Cubs want to spend in payroll for 2012. If I have missed something, please inform me. Otherwise i don’t think any of us can make assumptions as to how many dollars are actually available/
"We gotta circle the bandwagons." - Devin Hester
by Jose's Eyelid on Dec 9, 2011 10:03 AM CST up reply actions
You probably haven't seen it
because Theo expressly stated in his introductory news conference that he would not discuss the team’s payroll in the media, as he feels it gives some information to competitors that he would rather they not have.
The projections for “available dollars” are, of course, rough estimates. And they’re based off of last year’s “baseball expenses” (payroll, draft, IFA, front office)… and having that figure remain fairly flat this year.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
I recall that from the introductory press conference
So I kind of thought maybe this off-season the Cubs would be big spenders. Maybe they still will be, but so far there has been little indication of it. But I do wonder if maybe the financial situation is really not as good as we think, and they want to trim the payroll by 20 or 30 million for ’12 and ’13.
"We gotta circle the bandwagons." - Devin Hester
by Jose's Eyelid on Dec 9, 2011 10:56 AM CST up reply actions
Could be, but I think it is unlikely.
IMO, I doubt Theo would come here if Ricketts intended to hack ~15% off the baseball operations budget.
Again… off-season is early. Maybe they spend on Fielder. Maybe on Darvish. Maybe on Cespedes. Maybe on Soler. (Various levels of “spend”, obviously.) Maybe something we don’t even know about yet (extension for Garza? club friendly / Longoria-ish contract for Castro?). Let’s just see how the rest of the off-season plays out.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Good advice indeed
And really, I have no problem with not signing anyone if Theo and Co think the available talent is over-priced.
At this point, I am more concerned about getting whoever is on the roster playing hard every play, and playing fundamentally.
"We gotta circle the bandwagons." - Devin Hester
by Jose's Eyelid on Dec 9, 2011 12:30 PM CST up reply actions
Of course not
merely 42 Million, assuming the 30 to bid and 1st year of the contract with the 12 million a year you speculate.
How the money is broken up is wholly insignificant. The fact of the matter is that you’re attempting to put really expensive deck chairs on the Titanic after it has sunk.
He still only pitches. There’s no promise that he’ll be successful at this level, and the Cubs have glaring holes to fill at many positions.
The competition in the Japanese league absolutely and without a doubt pales in comparison to the talent in the MLB. That’s why mediocre players and spare parts at best can be stars in their league.
If he throws a straight fastball at 95-97 to MLB hitters, then they’ll just go back the other way even faster.
The league he is in is likely something like a AAAA league would be here.
Also, you’re massively discounting the importance of pitching – The game starts and ends with pitching.
You claim the titanic sunk? Then I guess this year is a different ship, and you don’t avoid putting chairs on it just because the last ship sunk. Living in fear isn’t living at all.
I'm not discounting the importance of pitching at all.
Please show me anywhere that I said that.
It’s not a claim that the Titanic sunk. It’s at the bottom of the sea. It happened. The Cubs were HORRIBLE last year and lost the 2 best power hitters from their team. Those holes, as of now, are filled with stopgap measures and there’s no help coming in the near future from the minor leagues, with a possible exception of Jackson. Soriano is a butcher in the field. Byrd is gone after this year and DeJesus is 32 already. There’s Stewart to play 3B and his futility is well documented in other posts. You have Castro…decent player. Barney for 2B? Yippie! Nothing special at all. LaHair at 1B, who should have a field day with throws from Castro and inconsistent Soto behind the plate. Yeah…pitching is all that’s needed, right?
Apparently, Cub fans have learned NOTHING from the horrible deals that have been given out over the last decade that stopped the team from being able to trade or acquire players. Yet, you’re fine with handing out another 90 million to a guy that’s NEVER SHOWN HE CAN GET MAJOR LEAGUE HITTERS OUT, other than retreads that are playing in Japan after not being able to make an MLB team.
This isn’t living in fear, this is living in reality. The Cubs have a ton of holes to fill and spending that type of money on a guy that has shown nothing in the MLB and comes from a league where there have been outliers that have been successful, but for the most part are riddled with MLB failure is not the best way for the team to spend their resources.
It’s really that simple.
So you'd rather spend the money
on a guy who hadn’t hit less than 38 home runs a year over the past seven season—like the White Sox did with Adam Dunn last year?
All big contracts are gambles.
I'm sorry Josh
but that’s a silly comment.
Yes, big contracts are gambles.
Not all gambles are equal.
If we were playing poker and I had a flush, and I bet a lot of money, there’s a chance that a higher hand will beat me, but it’s slim. But knowing the odds, I make the bet.
The odds here are: Darvish is a guy who’s had success in a league that has imported high price-low production players to the MLB. His most harrowing competition in that league has been guys that couldn’t hack it in MLB as regular players. And, he will have an impact on approximately 35 games a year out of 162.
So, would I prefer that the Cubs spend 90 million over the next 5 years on Darvish or use the same money to fill gaping holes in the field and lineup with guys that play every day? Which is the smarter bet, Josh?
If you choose to go all in on a pair of freaking 5’s, then we should play poker sometime.
In poker you don't bet your hand...
I don’t care if I have a nut flush, if it’s not the absolute best hand possible that’s showing on the table, I play my hand off of what others have done and what they may hold. If you sit around waiting for a can’t lose hand in poker you’ll just be blinded out. If you wait until a can’t miss bet in baseball, you’ll never make a move.
Darvish has the potential to come in and absolutely dominate the league. You’re acting as if the league he is in is the equivalent of A+ ball or something, it certainly is not. It’s about half a step below MLB, and above AAA.
You’re completely discounting the value of pitchers again… Let’s change it around. A pitcher starting 35 games and throwing 100 pitches on average per start is involved in 3500 “plays.” That’s far more than any other position player will be responsible for. Pitchers can completely and totally dominate a game.
He also has the potential to be MASSIVELY overpaid
You’re acting like there’s zero chance he could under achieve. For the kind of money the team would have to spend to get him, it’s not ridiculous to advocate against it.
I'm not saying it's ridiculous to advocate against it at all
If I come across that way I apologize. I’m actually on the fence about signing him for a lot of the reasons stated here.
As Josh states as well, however, every major free agent has a chance to be massively overpaid. It’s one of the risks of FA.
As Josh states as well, however, every major free agent has a chance to be massively overpaid. It’s one of the risks of FA.
But that’s a false equivalency. There are degrees of risk. Sure, Albert Pujols might bottom out over the length of his contract but he’s probably going to do better than if say, I was signed as a free agent. Darvish comes with more risk because he’s faced no one that is currently in the major leagues.
False equivalency?
According to you.
Who were the top four free agents last year? Crawford, Dunn, Beltre and Werth. That’s about one for four. Throw in Ryan Howard, who got bought out of free agency, and it’s one for five.
But you still look at your cards and evaluate
if you have the best hand or not. Then, you have to make an educated guess if you don’t, based on the things you stated.
You’re advocating betting on someone that HAS NEVER THROWN A MAJOR LEAGUE PITCH. The repeated failures of Japanese league imports shows that an overwhelming majority DO NOT DOMINATE the MLB. That has to be part of your educated guess.
I’m not suggesting that the Cubs wait for a can’t miss bet…simply that they have SOME INFORMATION before they bet.
AAAA players can’t cut it in MLB all the time. And you’re essentially saying that is what the Japanese league is, all a bunch of AAAA players. The Cubs have had plenty of AAAA players that never made the jump to the majors with sustained success.
If you had a player in AAA that was posting an ERA under 2 with an 13.5 K% and 1.7 BB%
You’d have the #1 prospect in baseball – Matt Moore. Who by the way, just signed a contract for $40 million, when the team already controlled his rights for 6 years. If he was a free agent this offseason, he’d be the #1 pitcher available and would’ve easily passed CJ Wilson’s contract offer.
Well, I guess you're right
because Moore got that contract after never having pitched in the Majors and proving that his success in the minors was no fluke.
Oh….wait..no…he didn’t.
You're going to argue that 19.1 innings really made THAT big of a difference?
Mmkay. We’ll just agree to disagree on this whole thing.
Yep
He’d give Darvish $40 million if he’d just have pitched 9 innings in the majors. That proves everything.
Yeah
Because an unrestricted FA is exactly the same as someone under team control for 5 years.
Huh?
An unrestricted free agent has more control over his surroundings. The Rays didn’t have to give Moore diddly-poo. They’re trying to buy out his arb contract.
I think you’re arguing against yourself here.
The fact that you capitalized those words
just convinced me. You’re absolutely right. I certainly can’t argue with someone who all-caps.
by Josh Timmers on Dec 9, 2011 3:44 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Poor NOMAR would have no chance against Scott
Step Two: Develop an organizational plan
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 9, 2011 4:35 PM CST up reply actions
That's fine
You can be pompous ass in your response. Doesn’t change the fact that you didn’t actually address any of the points that I made.
And it doesn’t change that Darvish has never thrown one single pitch in the majors or faced the quality of hitters that he’ll see in MLB.
I may be wrong. He may be superduperhappyfuntimeexcellent, and I’ll be happy to admit that I’m wrong.
It’s a 90million dollar gamble that I’d rather not see the Cubs take with their previous history of horrible gambles and the relative few true successes from Japan to MLB play.
The "former gambles" are irrelevant.
This is different management. They may decide not to do it. If they do, I trust their reasoning.
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I laughed.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 5:19 PM CST up reply actions
How is that relevant to his argument?
Does overpaying for Japanese pitchers guarantee you a World Series trophy?
Matsuzaka helped win a WS...
I’m sure as much as he didn’t live up to the contract, it was worth it for the WS win.
Right.
Which is what we would have said if the Cubs had won in 2008, about Soriano. That contract would still be just as bad. But a WS win would have made it more palatable.
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If they don't, do you trust their assessment?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Alright, I don't want to sign the guy either, but this isn't the way to go about voicing that opinion.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Who?
Prince “Fat Cow” Fielder? Who looks for all the world like the next Mo Vaughn? (Except Vaughn won one more MVP award) Edwin Jackson? The guy who never lives up to his promise?
You talk about “we should spend the money elsewhere” but there is no where else to spend the money. You can’t toss it back into the draft anymore. You can’t toss it into Dominican signings.
Do you think Hiroki Kuroda has succeeded in the majors? His line in Japan is pretty much the same as it is in the US.
And I’m sorry, that line “he will have an impact on approximately 35 games a year out of 162.” is completely silly. A starting pitcher in the major leagues will face approximately the same number of batters that a starting hitter does. Do you not think that the starting pitcher has a far, far greater impact on the outcome of a game than even the best hitter? Come back to me when Albert Pujols gets to bat 25 times a game. Why should we spend crap on a hitter who only gets to bat four times?
Exactly right on the "35 games" thing.
If anyone feels that way, the Cubs should never sign for or trade for a big-name pitcher.
Of course you do it, if you feel he’s worth it.
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This rings true...
but the only catch is that as of Dec 2011, Darvish can’t be considered a “big-name pitcher” at the ML level. He COULD be great, but betting an enormous posting fee on top of the contract you have to sign him to only makes it riskier to actually find out.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 5:23 PM CST up reply actions
That's assinine
You spend the money on a big name pitcher who’s proven that they have some dang success against MLB hitters.
You want to propose that the Cubs should have gone full court press on Cliff Lee? Fine, I’ll agree with you.
Should CC have opted out and you proposed that all Cub fans send money to 1060 Addison to help pay for his contract, I’d have put a letter with some cash in the mail.
To spend it on someone that is completely unproven against this sort of talent when there are so many every day holes to fill is not a smart way to spend money.
The simple fact of the matter again is this: Swap the Cubs starting staff with the Phillies or the new Angel’s staff or San Francisco’s staff and the Cubs are still under .500 because they can’t hit, field or score.
Deal with the basics and then add the pitching.
The thing is, you're spending what likely amounts to 65-75% of the cost of a CC
For someone with that type of a ceiling. No, he hasn’t done it in the MLB, but that’s why he’s not getting a CC like deal.
Because that completely discounts the importance of defense in the field
but I guess that doesn’t matter, either.
I’m sure you were never one that gave Pena any credit for saving some of Castro’s throws last year. And that you never thought Grace saved Dunston’s poor throws. Or that a player like Ellsbury can’t change a game with their speed. Because, really, all an everyday player does is hit, I guess.
The Cubs could have gone after the Marlin targets that were signed. They could have gone after Wilson. They could still go for someone like Willingham. They didn’t.
The team needs to figure out where they’re going. If they’re going to break it down and rebuild, fine. Trade Garza and any other moveable pieces that bring back something of value.
Reyes would have been a great addition. Rollins could be okay, but I wouldn’t want a ton of money spent on him, either.
I don’t have a problem with the Cubs spending money. Just show me that you’re spending it wisely. 90 million for someone that hasn’t thrown a single pitch in the majors isn’t wise, in my eyes.
Now you're the one being silly
So the two put outs a game that a left fielder makes makes all the difference, huh?
I take this as discounting the importance of a guy that can dominate every start
You seriously advocate that the Cubs spend $90 million on ONE person, who plays, at best, every 5 days
My “claim the titanic sunk” was quite clearly a metaphor for the Cubs… as you made that metaphor I figured you could follow it through.. guess not.
Where did I ever say that pitching was the ONLY thing the Cubs need? Guess what happens when you try and fill every single hole you have in one offseason with free agents? 2006 happens, and then 2010 and 2011 happen. You take the gamble on a dominant 25 year old pitcher for 5 years when he clearly has ace potential. You fill in the other holes with trades, next offseason, the offseason of 2013, etc. Baseball is always evolving, if you wait until the perfect storm in one offseason, you’ll be the Pirates.
The deals of the past have absolutely nothing to do with the deals of the future. You still look at those and feel burned so you freak out about the potential of that happening again – that is living in fear of big contracts.
You’re not giving a lot of players the credit they deserve either. Calling Castro a “decent player” is a joke an insult to his ability. Siting one weakness of each player does not make them all useless.
You’re against this signing, and that’s fine, but your rationale for being against this signing is ridiculous; and it really is that simple.
Whatever guy
Yes, I’m against spending that kind of money on an unproven player. No where did I say that pitching isn’t important. Starting pitchers play every 5 days. Yes, Darvish may dominate. He may also be Dice-K.
If you switch the Angels starting staff with the Cubs starting staff and left the other 19 players the same, you’d still have a team that can’t hit or field or score runs.
If one possibly dominating starting pitcher was all the Cubs lacked in making a run, then I’d say sure, spend the money on Darvish. But it’s not.
And if my rationale for not signing an unproven Darvish and committing 90 million to him is ridiculous, your presumption that he is going to come over and be an ace is equally ridiculous. There’s simply no proof that he can be successful against major league talent.
I’d also be against signing Neftali Feliz to a 90 million dollar contract as a starter, because he hasn’t proven he can do it. He has the potential, sure, but he hasn’t actually done it. And he was a starter in the minors, which is about equal to the Japanese league.
So, why not fill the every day holes now and then worry about pitching holes in 2013?
Aside from Castro, who did I call out that you would like to defend? Castro has some upside with the bat, and I hope he makes strides with his defense. Until he does, I’ll say he’s a decent player. Do you want to sign him for 90 million right now?
I'm not saying you're claiming pitchers aren't important at all, I'm saying you're undervaluing their importance... this is not the same thing.
If one possibly dominating starting pitcher was all the Cubs lacked in making a run, then I’d say sure, spend the money on Darvish. But it’s not.
No one player is going to make the Cubs a WS competitor. By your logic, you never sign anyone because they aren’t the one stop answer to fixing the Cubs. Baseball signings are fluid, and you need to start somewhere. A potential ace is a pretty decent place to start.
I’m not claiming that he will be an ace, but many scouts have claimed he would be AT WORST a strong #3 starter. Would that mean we had overpaid at 18 million a year? Yep, but that’s a gamble big market teams take. Because if he does become a 7-8 WAR pitcher, you just got a 5 year steal.
How do you fill the every day holes right now? There are no simple solutions to improving every position that you’re bringing up. Do you sign Fielder? Fine, that’s okay with me as well. Then what? Does Fielder fix our pitching? Does he fix our problems at 3B? In the OF? See where I’m going with this?
I’m not going to get in an argument over every single player you mentioned, but DeJesus is likely a 3 WAR improvement over our RF last year, Stewart was a #3 prospect in all of baseball and has some potential to say the least, Barney is what he is, a light hitting, great defending 2B. No one is saying these guys are all stars, but it’s not like we’re fielding league worsts at every single position, which it seem your tone tries to imply.
You’re still way low on Castro, and I wont even bother getting into that. Do I want to sign Castro for 90 million? We already have Castro, so that’s a pointless comparison. Will I bet that in 5 years we hope we could sign him for 5/90? Sure.
by bdlugz on Dec 9, 2011 2:35 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Wow...you really like taking things completely out of context
and then morph them into something that attempts to prove your point.
There is no one player that will make the Cubs a WS competitor. That’s true and you and I agree on that.
If fact, EVERYTHING I’VE FREAKING SAID has been about that point exactly. There are way too many EVERYDAY holes to fill to worry about taking a crazy ass gamble on an unproven player that can only contribute every 5 days.
Rather than worry about what my tone implies, why not just read what I wrote. The Cubs have a team that struggles to hit, score runs and play defense. Are they the worst at every position? No. And I never said they were. Whatever you choose to read into the words that I write is of your own making.
And your entire argument centers around your opinion that Darvish has the potential to be an ace. My argument centers around my opinion that he has the potential to be a bust.
You are basing your opinion off of numbers he’s put up in an inferior league and what scouts project.
I’m basing my opinion off of what Japanese prospects have ACTUALLY DONE in MLB, despite what the scouts projected. And, beating a dead horse, the vast majority of Japanese players in MLB have been average at best or busts.
If you don't want people to imply things from your writing, you may want to clear up how you write...
All I’ll say to this is comparing Darvish to past failures from Japan is an exercise in futility.
I’m done with this whole thing though, it’s pointless.
Personally, I prefer the Cuban outfielder
Hitters in general are safer bets than pitchers (especially Japanese pitchers, which have a dubious track record), plus Cespedes would likely be cheaper since there is no posting fee.
In a few years our outfield would likely be Cespedes, B Jack, and Matt S (even at the end of this year the OF could be Cespedes, B Jack, DDJ, not too shabby). That is a very athletic outfield, and should be very strong defensively, which will help any of the pitchers that happen to be on the staff at the time.
I also question the idea that Cubs “need” to make a splash. I think the Theo / Jed hirings were the splash that was needed.
"We gotta circle the bandwagons." - Devin Hester
Have a feeling the BoSox will be suitors once again.
Bobby V has praised Darvish after seeing him first hand overseas.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
Speculation alert!
This article, ahem, speculates that it could cost more than $100 million to sign Darvish. I still think this is a ridiculously huge gamble to take on a young player who’s never faced MLB hitters nor ever dealt with the 162-game season over here.
Al’s points about his age and physical make-up are well taken. But this gamble is just too rich for my blood. I can’t support a “whatever it takes” approach to Darvish — and it’s not just about the fact that he’s Japanese (or half-Japanese, as it were). Signing any pitcher to a long-term deal at that price is a huge risk that shouldn’t involve a bidding war.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Your hesitations do have some validity to them.
I believe this is a risk worth taking.
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I wish I could feel that certain about it...
…because I’d honestly like to get really excited about some, any player acquisition at this point. But I’ll be honest enough to admit that the Fukudome signing has left me much more wary of whether and how Japanese players can transition their skills to MLB.
Of course, that’s not a perfect comparison with Kosuke being a position player and Darvish a pitcher. And I’ll even go one better to point out that it seems like Japanese pitchers have had more success here than position players. But at such a high price, I’d be worried the Cubs would never get enough value in return for those dollars.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Fukudome was nearly six years older than Darvish.
That’s a big difference.
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It is a big factor.
I did mostly settle on the belief that Fukudome’s biggest downside was probably his age. But Darvish is a starting pitcher. He’s only going to be on the field facing major league batters once every five days. It just seems like his margin for error is so much thinner.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
With all due respect
It did not stop you from saying he was going to be a great player and the key to the Cubs problems at the time.
I would have preferred to spend the same money on Wilson.
The bottom is loaded with nice people, Albert. Only cream and bastards rise
by Doggie Stalker on Dec 9, 2011 10:15 AM CST up reply actions
Wilson will end up being a hugely overpaid No. 3 starter.
But at least he doesn’t cost an additional $30 million just to start hammering out a contract.
If I were TheoJed, I’d take the remaining money we have, sign Fielder and work hard to trade (in order of most preferable to least preferable) Soriano, Marmol or Soto to scrape enough money together to trade for Danks or sign Maholm (or somebody similar).
Lineup: DeJesus, Jackson, Castro, Fielder, Stewart, Byrd, Catcher, Barney
Rotation: Garza, Dempster, Danks/Maholm, Zambrano, Wells
Then, after 2012, use the money saved from Zambrano/Dempster to add a TOR starter.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
by elgato on Dec 9, 2011 10:22 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Matt Cain, perchance.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Or Cole Hamels.
Two guys without posting fees.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
That deserves a rec, Nunya!
Rec it! Rec it!
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I have a feeling that if you and I only discuss this topic today
there might be some on here who think we’ve eloped.
by Nunyabidness on Dec 9, 2011 11:10 AM CST up reply actions
Ha.
Don’t tell my wife.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
GET A ROOM
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 11:15 AM CST up reply actions
We're gonna use a couch in the soup club's treehouse and I'm not telling you which one
by Nunyabidness on Dec 9, 2011 11:16 AM CST up reply actions
We haven't used that treehouse since before shoe joined soup club.
So have at it, but my only advice would be to steer clear of the loveseat with the grapes and pheasant print…Dan lost a bet on that one, it’s not safe.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 11:22 AM CST up reply actions
GET A ROOM, YOU TWO!
Author at Acme Packing Company, SB Nation's Green Bay Packers blog.
State high point count: 4/50
If you are grouchy, irritable, or just plain mean, there will be a $10 charge for putting up with you.
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Dec 9, 2011 11:23 AM CST up reply actions
How bad would it be with LaHair hitting fourth?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I did say that, yes.
I wasn’t the only one saying that, either. Clearly, we were wrong about Fukudome.
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I think almost all of us were excited about Kosuke.
It’s just that that experience has tempered our expectations on Japanese players more than it has yours, Al.
BTW, I’d be more on board with this if the numbers were different — if I thought we could get Darvish and keep LaHair out of the starting lineup.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I realize the Kosuke experience has people here leery.
It shouldn’t. Darvish isn’t Kosuke. Two different players, two different people.
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Clearly.
One costs twice as much to acquire.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
by elgato on Dec 9, 2011 10:33 AM CST up reply actions 4 recs
And one could be twice as valuable.
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Or twice as disappointing.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 10:57 AM CST up reply actions
Or just as disappointing.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
by elgato on Dec 9, 2011 10:58 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
'Could' is a conditional.
My point is a certainty.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
"Could be" =/= "Will be".
Author at Acme Packing Company, SB Nation's Green Bay Packers blog.
State high point count: 4/50
If you are grouchy, irritable, or just plain mean, there will be a $10 charge for putting up with you.
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Dec 9, 2011 11:03 AM CST up reply actions
How about the myriad of other Japanese players who have come over here and stunk it up?
Should they make people leery?
Yes, they are all different people, but at some point you have to admit it may be a pattern, with a few outliers. Right now the ones who were good are the outliers.
by Nunyabidness on Dec 9, 2011 11:10 AM CST up reply actions
And even if they don't stink it up ...
they’re almost ALWAYS overpaid.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Fun article on “Young Yu Darvish” at FanGraphs
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Lots of innings?
I know he’s averaged just over 200 innings per season, but hasn’t he logged much more in postseason and other tourneys? IOr is it probably no more than an average teenage prospect in the states?
Does anyone know if he’s had any injury concerns in the past? Seems to be what derailed Dice-K
random thoughts aplenty: @crouch17
I don't think Darvish
threw as much in HS as Matsuzaka did. I don’t know that for sure though.
by Josh Timmers on Dec 9, 2011 11:56 AM CST up reply actions
It's easy to say bid whatever it takes
But when you don’t know what anyone else is bidding, that’s easier said than done. The Cubs may feel $40 or $50 million is what it takes, but then if we find out the Rangers or someone else bid $52 million, there’s nothing that can be done about it and we’re out of luck.
I think they should just do an e-bay auction and we can all watch the bids come in. It would be great to see all the GMs at their computers waiting for the last 30 seconds of the auction to make their bids, and see the reaction of someone that made the high bid only to find out someone else outbid them with 2 seconds left.
Harry Caray: Marshall is going back to LA to get cocaine for his injured foot.
Steve Stone: Harry, that’s Novocaine.
by Julio Zuleta's Voodoo on Dec 9, 2011 9:46 AM CST reply actions
I swear I saw this 5 years ago
only it said Fukudome. No thanks. These things work out maybe one in five times. Basically the is the same stuff that was said about both Dome & Dice-K
The bottom is loaded with nice people, Albert. Only cream and bastards rise
Except that Darvish is five years younger.
And far more dominant.
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And far more expensive.
Like, twice the price, at least.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Here's your lineup next year if you do this:
DeJesus, Barney, Castro, Stewart, Byrd, LaHair, Soriano, Soto
Even if we have Darvish, Garza, Dempster, Zambrano Wells, we’ll still be no better than we were last year.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
But isn't this...
we’ll still be no better than we were last year.
…the likely outcome regardless of what moves are made? There just aren’t enough fixes / band-aids to plug all the holes.
I’m fine if the Cubs go all in on Fielder. But then there’s likely no $ left to sign Maholm and, IMO, KW won’t Danks across town for any package that doesn’t start with at least Brett Jackson.
So… the pitching will stink again this year. As you noted early in the thread… the “and death is not an option” choices, in all likelihood, appear to be “mediocre line-up and bad pitching” or “bad line-up and mediocre pitching”. Al’s (essentially) advocating the latter… you’re (essentially) advocating the former. I’m not sure who is “right”.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
In a situation like this:
I’d rather take the guy who has been a consistent major league player for several years, rather than a Japanese pitcher who might be the next Daisuke.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I would lean that way, too.
My point was, even if both of you are right on player evaluation (i.e., Darvish turns out well for Al or Fielder anchors the Cub line-up)… there still isn’t enough Spackle to fill the holes this year.
So, while I would rather we spend the cash on Fielder… I don’t think Al’s argumentation on building the club is wrong if he/we/they are confident Darvish can live up to the hype. That’s obviously a big “if” and Fielder is far more certain to produce.
Basically, I’d rather sign Fielder, but I don’t think Al’s idea/preference is crazy as some seem to be suggesting (not necessarily you), either.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Fair enough.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Daisuke Matsuzaka ... oh man.
Red Sox fans were acting like he was the best thing in baseball since sliced bread, and then, when Daisuke became a bust, they were left scratching their heads.
The only Japanese player who may have exceeded Red Sox fans’ expectations is Hideki Okajima.
Author at Acme Packing Company, SB Nation's Green Bay Packers blog.
State high point count: 4/50
If you are grouchy, irritable, or just plain mean, there will be a $10 charge for putting up with you.
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Dec 9, 2011 11:40 AM CST up reply actions
And OT-ish
Don’t you kind of smile at least a little thinking of SenorGato’s head exploding somewhere?? Trading DJLM and banter about trading Garza!!
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Nah.
I wish SenorGato nothing but the best. ;)
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I wish he was here, I'd love to see what he would say about all that has gone on
by Nunyabidness on Dec 9, 2011 11:12 AM CST up reply actions
Whatever he'd say, it'd probably have to be deleted
Step Two: Develop an organizational plan
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 9, 2011 11:12 AM CST up reply actions
well, yeah but it would be entertaining for about five minutes
by Nunyabidness on Dec 9, 2011 11:15 AM CST up reply actions
He'd say ...
that Hendry actually was a good GM after all, because his farm system provided fodder to acquire Stewart and Weathers.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
And then after I cleaned the soda off my screen, I'd calmly explain why his prozac clearly wasn't getting the job done
by Nunyabidness on Dec 9, 2011 11:17 AM CST up reply actions
The more I think about it ...
the more I think that’s exactly what he would say.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Yep, I think el nailed it
Step Two: Develop an organizational plan
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 9, 2011 11:45 AM CST up reply actions
Isn't this the part ...
in the movie where there’s a thunderclap, and SG appears after a long absence?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
So you hope the Cubs part ways with Garza, DJLM, and DeWitt?
Author at Acme Packing Company, SB Nation's Green Bay Packers blog.
State high point count: 4/50
If you are grouchy, irritable, or just plain mean, there will be a $10 charge for putting up with you.
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Dec 9, 2011 11:42 AM CST up reply actions
DeWitt hasn't been moved yet
Step Two: Develop an organizational plan
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 9, 2011 11:08 AM CST up reply actions
That would complete the circle for SG.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Just the phrase, "Matt Murton is a star in NPB," makes me wonder about all those great pitching stats.
I agree with those who would want to take a flier were it not for the posting fee. No thanks.
Pass
No thanks. These arguments are starting to be made in a seeming financial vacuum, as if to say “why not, this player will make the team better.” Yes, most likely Darvish would make the team better, as it does not look like the Cubs can do much else with the money beyond Fielder. But the fee is enormous, and it is a gigantic gamble to pay for what could be an ace, or someone that could end up as a back of the rotation starter. We have no idea.
And if making Murton look foolish is the barometer, well then he will have a fine time disposing of 7-9 hitters in major league lineups, but as far as getting anyone else out, who knows?
Ofcourse he's not going to be putting up sub 2.00 eras
but the league is usually considered triple A talent. If he was throwing 95 mph with his control, and pitch selection in triple A he would be a number 1 prospect.
I figure that Velocity, his control, and pitch repertoire will translate in any league.
NO.
I understand your arguments, Al. I really do. But the bottom line, in my opinion, is that the game is just a different game in Japan and Korea than it is over here in the States. That’s why you don’t see a lot of success from pitchers or hitters over here, with the obvious exception of Ichiro and Hideki Matsui’s few good years. It’s too risky, and with the bad contracts that the Cubs already have to worry about, it’s a risk that just isn’t worth it.
BEAR DOWN!
Sveum Game '12
Yeah! C'mon, DeRomantics!
Throw down!
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
up to 100 million reasons
The bottom is loaded with nice people, Albert. Only cream and bastards rise
by Doggie Stalker on Dec 9, 2011 10:10 AM CST up reply actions
OK?
This isn’t the unreasonable TJ we all know and love…have you given up?
"Fast Don't Lie"
by Sandberg's evil twin on Dec 9, 2011 12:36 PM CST up reply actions
$30 mill posting fee, and 5 year $60 million contract = $18M per year pitcher
I doubt he’s worth that. I think you have the posting fee about right, but the contract is a little high. He’d probably take less than that so long as he’s still being paid significantly more than he can make in the NBP.
Is it just me, or does anyone else have the feeling that signing pitchers from that league is a little like reaching back in time and signing a star pitcher from the early 20th century? They put a ton of mileage on their arms each year (starting in high school or earlier), and have stats that are inflated by the competition they’re pitching against. So yeah, he’s big, strong, very talented, has command and power, and undoubtedly can make a splash for whichever team signs him. But for how long before the arm gives out?
He's 25.
If he were 30, I’d be real hesitant.
But like Nomo and Ichiro, he’d be coming here right at the start of his peak years.
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I think that is a terrible reason
I don’t see a huge difference between 25 and 30 for a dominating starting pitcher. The difference in a 5 year contract between ages 25 and 30 and 30 and 35 does not worry me in the least. Few dominating pitchers are going to be in some kind of big decline at age 35 which one assumes would be the final year of 5 year contract with a pitcher of 30. The fact that he is "only’ 25 gives me no extra confidence that he is worth 100 million.
The bottom is loaded with nice people, Albert. Only cream and bastards rise
by Doggie Stalker on Dec 9, 2011 10:42 AM CST up reply actions
Really?
I see that as a HUGE difference. Again, Darvish should be entering his prime years — as Hideo Nomo was.
That’s not the case for a pitcher who’s already 30.
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Why is it a huge difference for someone you think is totally dominating?
I don’t see a huge decline in great pitchers from 30-35. We are not talking 35 to 40 here. Truly dominating pitchers generally have a good decade plus of great stuff often starting around 25 but not like they go bad at 30. If Verlander where a free agent at 30 which would be next season (2013) would you say nope he is 30 so not worth paying big money to as he would just be in decline ( assuming a 5 year contract). Cliff Lee had his first great season at 30 and was almost as great last year at the old age of 33.30-35 should be great years for great players. I believe it has been said that MLB players peek around 29 so there certainly is no HUGE difference for a healthy player between those two 5 year periods. Age is a real factor here, if he can dominate in the MLB is
question and I am not willing to take 100 million dollar risk,
The bottom is loaded with nice people, Albert. Only cream and bastards rise
by Doggie Stalker on Dec 9, 2011 11:43 AM CST up reply actions
The difference is he may not have even reached his peak yet.
That’s a major difference. Pay for future performance, not for past.
Except that this is a unique case.
Paying for future performance comes with a $30 million additional charge.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I'm aware of that.
I was just point out that the pay-for-future-performance-not-success argument is different here because the price for future performance is unusually high.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Contract length
The good news is that once he posts, we get exclusive rights to negotiate, and the standard for international players has been capping out at 5 years at reasonable amounts of $12 a year or so. So if he does fall apart like Matsuzaka, it’s over sooner than a contract with a guy like Hampton or Zito.
-- Jerome Horwitz
by KO Stradivarius on Dec 9, 2011 10:30 AM CST up reply actions
So we are only out 100 million instead of 130 million?
I doubt the Red Sox see it that way with Dice-K
The bottom is loaded with nice people, Albert. Only cream and bastards rise
by Doggie Stalker on Dec 9, 2011 10:43 AM CST up reply actions
Hm, well, by that amount...
…Darvish might be worth it. He’d have to be a roughly 4 WAR pitcher each year of his deal, which would seem somewhat feasible if he could transition effectively. He would have to pitch about how well Greinke did for the Brewers this past season.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Don't you still have control of the pitcher after the 5 years? Not sure how service time works with japanese players.
Also I really think you don’t need to give him 14 million. I think 10 million per year would be enough and maybe add high value options. Maybe 30 for posting and 5 years for 50 million with options and incentives to push the value higher. I think an innings incentives would be a good idea. Dice K would been good if he hadn’t been so injury prone.
For 16 million a year he would need to be a solid #2. Most think he is at worst a Dice K who was a solid #3 when healthy. i
ABSOLUTELY 100% YES!!!
Look, Darvish has shown dazzling talent for several years now. MLB scouts have been drooling over him since he was a kid.
The Cubs need an ace, and they don’t have one in their system. Garza is no ace. Neither was CJ Wilson, and look, he got $75 million.
I think the Cubs can and should pony up the $50-60 million posting fee it would take to outbid everyone. This kid is special, and I mean special. You cannot win playoff games without an ace, and we desperately need one. Real aces like Sabathia and Lincecum and Verlander are going to cost $150 and 8 years, carrying them into their down years – now that’s something we don’t need, but we’ll be faced with in the next couple of years, because we don’t really have any aces coming up any time soon.
-- Jerome Horwitz
by KO Stradivarius on Dec 9, 2011 10:22 AM CST reply actions
What the hell Al? Pay whatever it costs to get to negotiate and then pay a metric ass-load more to sign a pitcher that hasn't never even pitched in MLB?
You know we have Front Office guys who give a shit about value/cost now right?
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 10:37 AM CST reply actions
Yes, that's what I'm saying.
And if it happens, those “Front office guys who give a shit about value/cost” would have made that analysis.
Right?
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by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2011 10:56 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Heh you got Al to say a bad word.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
I WIN!
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 10:58 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
The site moderator is gonna get him now!
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 9, 2011 11:43 AM CST up reply actions
Can you send a warning to yourself?
"Fast Don't Lie"
by Sandberg's evil twin on Dec 9, 2011 12:43 PM CST up reply actions
That would be sooo epic.
"Fast Don't Lie"
by Sandberg's evil twin on Dec 9, 2011 12:43 PM CST up reply actions
It's his first offense
I’m sure he’ll get off with only a one week banishment.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 9, 2011 1:01 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I tried that excuse too in 4th grade...
still got my mouth washed out with soap.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 2:37 PM CST up reply actions
...
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 2:42 PM CST up reply actions
my Dad use to put tabasco on our tounges
Never told him it didn’t bother me
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Cubs win....what a lucky break!!" ---Harry
O . O
Al? Really?
"Fast Don't Lie"
by Sandberg's evil twin on Dec 9, 2011 11:01 AM CST up reply actions
I want Darvish on this team.
Badly. But it all depends on 2 things:
1. Will there be added revenue from the Japanese market to offset some of the initial posting fee cost?; and
2. How much doesn Darvish want per year?
As for #1, I would most undoubtedly believe that there will be. Darvish is the most popular player in Japan. ( I would imagine he’s the most popular player in Iran as well, but I have no basis for that). I believe he will have the media following that Dice-K had in Boston. Just looking at the payroll numbers, it appears the posting fee for Dice-K had zero affect on payroll. One could assume that means that the money came from elsewhere, and should not be considered part of the player’s salary.
For #2, I’ve seen a report that he wants $20 million per. That’s pretty steep, IMO. Still, if we aren’t going to go all out for a big time 1B, the money is most definately there, and will only continue to be there in future years. This is where the FO will have to trust its scouting department.
$20 million is worth it....but only if he's the type of pitcher that can get batters like Matt Murton out..
Someone go check Darvish’s head to head stats with Matt.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 10:39 AM CST up reply actions
It's the red hair.
A novelty in Japan. Darvish probably thinks Murton is a dragon.
"Fast Don't Lie"
by Sandberg's evil twin on Dec 9, 2011 10:57 AM CST up reply actions
You know your name looks like Roto Rooter, right?
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Alright, this concludes my questioning. Thank you.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
He prides himself on unclogging...
…many of the common misconceptions about baseball.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
He'll never get along with Dusty Baker, then.
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Wow I really like how we brought that full circle.
Good job group.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
The whole stinking thread went down the toilet.
"Fast Don't Lie"
by Sandberg's evil twin on Dec 9, 2011 11:03 AM CST up reply actions
Pretty comical
Ryno Rooter is the most informed Cub fan on this site. Knows the system better than anyone else and wants us to win
Ryno Rooter
Didn’t know if that came across correctly. But I agree with you 100% Revenue streams have increased 15 percent since the Epstien hiring and the posting fee in negligible.
I don't think
Kosuke added much direct revenue to the Cubs, and he was the most popular player over there when he left.
As for number 2, it doesn’t matter much. He is going to cost 10 mil per year over 5 years (as a posting fee) minimum, before we ever negotiate a salary with him. He isn’t going to take less than Dice-K took when, as Al points out, he is younger and more dominant. I think Dice-k got 9 or 10 mil a year in salary AFTER the posting fee. So the floor for his cost to the team is roughly 20 mil per year.
I don’t think there are more than 5 pitchers in baseball worth that. He certainly hasn’t given any indication he is among them.
Kosuke was never the most popular player in Japan
Darvish is easily the most popular since Ichiro or Godzilla. No comparison there.
And once again, you are including the posting fee into his salary. It’s unknown if you should be doing that. Let’s look at Boston’s payroll before and after Dice-K:
2006 – Roughly $120 million
2007 – Roughly $143 million
The addition of $23 million includes a $7 million raise to Papi, the signing of Drew for $14.4 million, the signing of Piniero for $4 million, the siging of Lugo for $8.25 million, the signing of Dice-K for $6.33 million and others; while a few players were let go. The numbers come out that ONLY the $6.33 million was considered part of the payroll.
I would like to point out that we have the same guy running the team that the Red Sox had back then. I’m sure Theo knows where to get the money from for a posting fee, without it affecting payroll, as he has already done so previously in the Dice-K deal. Yes, the money comes from somewhere, but it isn’t likely to come from the payroll budget and shouldn’t be described as such.
WHAT?!
I’m sure Theo knows where to get the money from for a posting fee, without it affecting payroll, as he has already done so previously in the Dice-K deal.
How does this work? Where does Theo get the money from? Magical elves? Who cares if it’s not part of the payroll budget? Do you think Tom Ricketts will care?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
by elgato on Dec 9, 2011 12:05 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm curious about this, too.
And even if the money doesn’t formally come from the Cubs payroll, does it really lower the risk? That’s still a huge number of dollars being paid by the team to a player who much bring back a reasonable amount of value for that compensation.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
RynoRooter's statement ...
sounds like Enron-style accounting, to me.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I have no idea about the accounting of it.
I do think that the Red Sox and the Yankees had an almost unlimited budget to work with when they wanted a player. It is not the case here. I don’t think Ricketts will be willing to go there, but I sure hope I’m wrong about that soon. Hiring Epstein was great but unless he is given freedom to pursue genuinely top tier players he will be wasted for the time being.
"Fast Don't Lie"
by Sandberg's evil twin on Dec 9, 2011 12:12 PM CST up reply actions
Yes, it does lower the risk
If a good deal of the money comes back from the Japanese market. You would essentially only be paying him his salary.
If we had the detailed income/expenses spreadsheet for the Red Sox organization for 2006 and 2007, we could know for sure.
How do you know a 'good deal of the money' will come back?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Moreover ...
could you draw any definite conclusions that make this situation similar to the one with Daisuke?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
OK, so you said 'if'.
Big deal.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
The "IF" set the whole tone for the statement
The risk would be greatly lowered, contingent upon a good deal of money coming back from the Japanese market. We have no idea how to quantify that, so there is as little evidence to support the contributions from a Japanese market as there is against it.
I’m not speaking in absolutes here, which apparently you aren’t understanding. Note that I said “My guess” would be that the money comes from the Japanese market. The only “Fact” we have is that only Dice-K’s $6.33 million was included for payroll purposed in 2007 for the Red Sox. His posting fee wasn’t. It’s completely open for speculation as to where the money came from.
You still have no idea ...
how to quantify this. You’re hinging your whole argument on the fact that the posting fee for Daisuke wasn’t included in Boston’s payroll.
Everything else is just nebulous guesswork.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Correct
Nobody does. That’s why I have used phrases like “Once could assume” , “My guess” , and “I imagine”. This is simply my take on things. There isn’t one person who could be definitive one way or the other without looking directly at the budget breakdown of the Red Sox for Dice-K.
Correct
Which is why using the Japanese audience argument to justify this signing is flimsy, at best.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
It's as concrete as the argument against him
if a person is including his posting fee as part of his salary. Neither side has any clue.
Sigh.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
At least it would be in a court room
Circumstancial evidence is better than no evidence at all. But whatever.
It's no circumstantial evidence.
It’s just circumstantial.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I hate to tell you this, but if you were arguing this case in court
The judge would have you thrown out.
Moot point
Discovery would have been done, thus no need for only circumstantial evidence. We would know the exacts of the Red Sox dealings with Dice-K. That would take a ton of the guess-work out of this.
You have to ask him about that
The obvious guess would be that the money comes from the Japanese market. Or at least the vast majority of it does. The novelty of Darvish will sell some more tickets for his starts as well.
People trying to compare Fukudome’s Japanese market appeal (and likely his ultimate Japanese market contributions) to Darvish’s are way off base. It’s as bad as comparing Darvish as a pitcher to Dice-K. There was little to no Japanese fanfare when Fukudome came over here. Go look at the Japanese media when Ichiro came over. Or even Dice-K for that matter. There were 20 Japanese reporters and at least a few broadcasters at every game. Were there even 5 for Fukudome’s games? I would say no.
You must be sore after all that stretching.
The same argument was made over the past four years to try to justify why Kosuke wasn’t really a bad signing. Defenders of the deal tried to say that his eventual promise and Japanese appeal would make the contract look better. There were some other justifications (Kosuke made the Cubs more patient!). But let’s focus on the first two.
Kosuke didn’t ever get that much better, but the Japanese appeal argument had the same hole then that it does now regarding Darvish. It’s all but impossible to quantify — even if it’s true that Darvish is much more popular in Japan than Kosuke was.
If the Cubs end up doing what you and Al are advocating, they’d better be DAMN sure that Darvish is worth the money (or very, very near worth the money) without any nebulous side benefits — because I VERY much doubt that the Ricketts family will be down for investing $30 million to make the Cubs more popular in Japan.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Hmmmm...
…I seem to recall there was a fairly large contingent of Japanese reporters following Kosuke during spring training and the first few months of his debut season with the Cubs. They eventually started to dwindle right along with his batting average and number of plate appearances later that year.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Novelty sales will not cover the posting cost
Even I can’t go there.
And forget the jersey sales. They’ll get knock-offs from Shanghai for $10 US.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 9, 2011 12:35 PM CST up reply actions
It's in addition to whatever revenue is generated by the Japanese market
I would never imply that the novelty of Darvish could make up $50 million.
Do you mean increased ticket sales?
Higher TV ratings? More Internet traffic?
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Rights to broadcast his starts on Japanese TV,
on Japanese Radio, etc. Money to be made there.
And what will that bring in?
What kind of money?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Beats me.
I could tell you if I was privy to the 2007 Red Sox income/expenses.
No, you couldn't.
Different teams. Different years. Different players.
Apples and oranges, at best.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
No exacts, obviously, but an educated guess could be easily deduced
While it’s entirely possible the teams and years could have a slight effect, the players are pretty dang similar. At least in terms of overall Japanese popularity. Darvish is actually more popular than Dice-k was.
Seriously dude, if your response to questions like
“Where does this money you’re arguing we’re going to get is going to come from?”
is “I have no idea” then you probably shouldn’t posit the theory in the first place.
I'm sorry. I though I was on an internet message board.
You know, a place where people post ideas and then discuss them. I now remember why this board has such a bad reputation outside of a few of the members on here. Hopefully you stay out of the minor league and prospect threads, as those will most undoubtedly be the only places I visit on here.
If you cared to pay attention, I stated several places that my theory is that the Japanese market would provide a good amount of money to help offset the posting fee. It’s well-documented above. I didn’t make some open statement like, “The posting fee shouldn’t be considered part of payroll, but I have no ideas as to why, but I believe it, so there.” My stance was well-known. I apologize if you have reading comprehension difficulties.
Knowing what your stance is, isn't the same thing as being able to back it up
But whatever, get challenged and bitch that people are being mean to you if you like. I’m good either way.
You're asking the impossible
Unless you are willing to accept very circumstancial evidence. It would be like me asking you to back up the claim that zero additional money will come from the Japanese market if we brought in Darvish. It can’t be done based on what we know.
Either you believe additional revenue will be gained from TV and radio agreements with the Japanese media, or you don’t.
It would be like me asking you to back up the claim that zero additional money will come from the Japanese market if we brought in Darvish.
Except that I never made that claim. You are the one making claims you can’t back up. Which was my original point. If you have zero evidence to back up your claims, don’t make them. Especially when you have a problem with them getting challenged
What specifically is the Japanese market?
TV revenue that goes directly to the Cubs (and not MLB)?
Ticket sales – Don’t think this will matter with the Cubs selling at 85+% of capacity.
I wouldn’t try to link the expense side (posting cost and contract) with the revenue side. Theo and Jed don’t care about the incremental revenue at all. They only care about if it’s a good baseball hire.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 9, 2011 12:56 PM CST up reply actions
Well, they'll be available, but not everyone travels there.
They’ll get knock-offs from Shanghai for $10 US.
And now that the RMB is floating a little bit, it’s more like $15.
Step Two: Develop an organizational plan
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 9, 2011 12:49 PM CST up reply actions
By the way, they aren't all knock-offs
My 1969 Santo and Banks jerseys are the same quality as what you’d get from M&N
Step Two: Develop an organizational plan
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 9, 2011 12:50 PM CST up reply actions
I know a flight attendant or two
And by knock-off, I mean not-official. The quality can be great.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 9, 2011 12:57 PM CST up reply actions
I've gotten some that are official
Or damn fine copies. Not everything in the markets is a knock-off. Some things, I suspect, are “fall off”, as in fall off the truck or assembly line into someone’s bag.
Step Two: Develop an organizational plan
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 9, 2011 1:28 PM CST up reply actions
Oh, god.
I’m having flashbacks to hours-long debates about Kosuke’s impossible-to-quantify value as someone who would increase the Cubs’ popularity in Japan.
I almost don’t want Darvish so I can avoid repeats of those arguments.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
In a Fielder/Darvish choice, I have to go for Fielder
Known ability in MLB, makes a difference in every game, and there should be proven, relatively young MLB pitchers available in the next FA class.
Agreed.
But if we miss Fielder, I think a gamble on Darvish is ok.
I have a gut feeling we get Fielder though. I’ll pose it this way; would he rather go the AL, and follow Pujols as the 2nd best hitter in that league (or even AL West – TEX), or stay in the NL and be thee best slugger in our league?
A gamble is picking up Stewart in trade
You take on more salary than you give up in the players you send and you hope he’ll come back to the mean a bit and be worth it.
Committing 90 million dollars to someone who has not made one single pitch in American baseball against much better competition, when it’s been proven that Japanese stars equal mid-level or lower players in the MLB is simply silly.
If Theo does it, it proves to me that he learned nothing from Dice-K and that he was the wrong choice for the job by the Cubs owners.
The Stewart trade is like a $5 chip at the $100 black-jack table
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 9, 2011 12:49 PM CST up reply actions
There will be a lot more options for Fielder than just the AL.
Like Albert he won’t ignore money from any team however. I hope we sign him but thinking he will avoid any team offering a lot of money is ludicrous to me.
"Fast Don't Lie"
by Sandberg's evil twin on Dec 9, 2011 12:04 PM CST up reply actions
Sure, the money will be the primary factor.
But if its all even and secondary factors come into play, I think it leans to our advantage.
Well I sure hope so.
It does sadly remind me of the Albert signing though. So many sportswriters here in STL and all over the nation really thought staying at home on a proven winner would make him sign for less money than elsewhere. Some idiots in the STL media even thought a statue at his local restaurant erected this year would be a factor. Albert never cared much about living here. And when LaRussa left I’m sure the pull to stay was even less. I don’t know what would motivate Fielder now but until I hear his family wants to live in a certain market I have to believe money can and will be the overriding factor.
"Fast Don't Lie"
by Sandberg's evil twin on Dec 9, 2011 12:40 PM CST up reply actions
Didn't STL have a chance to avoid this a few years ago?
I think the seed for him leaving was planted then. So now in FA he finds himself in between two similar offers. STL is a little less, and MIA wouldn’t allow the NTC. Suddenly the mystery Angels show up, add 30mil and the NTC, plus offer the insurance of a DH role down the road. Although money looms large, these ancillary reasons do play a role IMO.
So Fielder can now cash in too. I’m just saying the opportunity to be the baddest mofo with a bat in the NL Central could play to his ego. Plus he gets paid. Just sayin’.
Yeah, Fielder should be #1...
But I think if Theo wants to prove something he needs to go after Darvish if the Cubs won’t be getting Prince.
THEO!
by wrigleyrocker12 on Dec 9, 2011 2:59 PM CST up reply actions
Why?
Why wouldn’t going after the second-best slugger available “prove something”?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Yeah...
I can’t really tell if Theo is really pushing for Fielder or not. If he’s not, it needs to be Darvish.
BTW, if anyone hasn’t seen Joel Sherman thinks the Cubs are getting Prince, and leading the category in things that mean nothing, the fan poll on MLBTR has the Cubs getting Prince.
THEO!
by wrigleyrocker12 on Dec 9, 2011 3:07 PM CST up reply actions
I've seen nothing
indicating that the Cubs are going after Fielder. Now I must confess I heard nothing about the Angels going after Pujols until 48 hours before he signed there.
What do you consider "indicating"
Because over the last 48 hours I’ve seen literally dozens of reports saying we are.
I don't know about "dozens"
… but I have seen some. Not sure I believe them. TheoJed play things VERY close to the vest.
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I wouldn't be surprised ...
if TheoJed are working toward acquiring both players, to see which one makes more sense in the end. But I doubt they’ll get both.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Hell ...
if not for this posting fee business, I might be with you and Josh. But $30 million isn’t something you can just chalk up to a promotional expense — no matter how much we’d like Theo to Enron up the books.
The Cubs can afford Fielder right now, and if they get creative, they might be able to shoehorn in a John Danks, too. Darvish seems like he would pretty much be our entire offseason, if we signed him.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Fielder will cost more than Darvish.
So how do you figure that?
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Not in 2012, when you factor in the posting fee.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
When you say "afford"
… you have to include the total price of the contract. Just pushing all of it into 2012 doesn’t make sense. You don’t know how the Cubs would have to amortize the posting fee, and neither do I.
Join us for complete MLB coverage at SB Nation's Baseball Nation
It's still $30 million (possibly more) that would have to be paid soon.
There’s no argument there. You can’t just say, “Well, the Cubs payroll is going to remain constant — but they can take $30 million out of the fund formerly slated for Mark Riggins’ mustache maintenance.”
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Perhaps 30 million...
that will no longer be available to spend on the draft.
D98 mistaken, a hyperbole as in a funny or revisionism as in trying to make a new fact to confirm a prejudice
Just listened to Weis' press conference.
Man he’s gonna excite the fanbase. I dunno if he’s any less of a bully than Mangino, and he’ll probably be gone in two years, but it’s definitely going to be a shock to KU.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Good pickup for the Jayhawks...
I think that the best thing unsuccessful programs lacking in tradition can do is to just hire a big name and hope for the best. It’s somewhat of a rarity what Snyder did 90 miles away and create relevance for a college lacking any football identity.
You bring in a big name, hope it draws other top assistants and decent recruits, and maybe the program can take another step when he moves on (which he will).
D98 mistaken, a hyperbole as in a funny or revisionism as in trying to make a new fact to confirm a prejudice
You don't know what kind of payment agreement they'll come to...
I highly doubt the team assumes 30 million will be paid in one lump sum. It may be a deal to be paid out over the course of his agreement with the major league team.
Has anybody mentioned...
anything about potential revenue streams he could create?
It might be a bit overstated, but international successes could create different markets to help contribute to that posting fee.
D98 mistaken, a hyperbole as in a funny or revisionism as in trying to make a new fact to confirm a prejudice
It really doesn't work that way...
most revenue streams that come from Japan are spread out among all the teams. No team gets more because they’re actually employing and paying a Japanese player. I agree this is kinda unfair, but it’s a myth that’s been debunked here in Seattle about Ichiro’s impact and whether his salary has been revenue-neutral regardless of his on-field performance. The Cubs would definitely have a benefit… and more if Darvish succeeds… but it’s much less than most assume.
--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Dec 10, 2011 1:14 PM CST up reply actions
The non-tender deadline is Monday, right?
Given the financial obligations made in Orange County yesterday, my guess is the Cubs will wait to do anything until Monday’s non-tender deadline. If Morales is out there, the Cubs might give him a deal that would pale in comparison to one for Fielder.
If THAT happened … maybe there’s enough money to get Darvish. It would still be a potential mistake, but it would go from a 9 to a 5, IMO.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
I agree
I’d be all for the gamble on Morales’s health. Gives the team much more financial flexibility.
They're not non-tendering Morales
The Angels are in the process of finalizing the third-highest TV contract int he game. They aren’t hurting for money and Morales is an asset.
by Josh Timmers on Dec 9, 2011 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
Are you saying they'd just keep him and make him a bench player?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
No
They’d DH him. They may trade him. Or they may trade Abreu or Trumbo.
But there is no way they’re just cutting him.
by Josh Timmers on Dec 9, 2011 12:41 PM CST up reply actions
Just think. HWSNBN can start the chant:
Cubs! Yu! Cubs! Yu! Cubs! Yu!
(Sorry. It was set up on the tee. I had to hit away…)
There are 108 beads in a Catholic rosary and there are 108 stitches in a baseball. Who says baseball isn't a religion? (Now #8452 in the Cubs Season Ticket Wait List...)
Oh, the horror. The horror.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
For the first time, I might feel the need to be armed at the Friendly Confines.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 9, 2011 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
I'm dreading the ...
“Yu ought to know” headlines, personally.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Isn't it ironic?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Don't you think?
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
His agent was overheard to mumble at local Tokyo multiplex theater:
“Yu oughta be in pictures.”
There are 108 beads in a Catholic rosary and there are 108 stitches in a baseball. Who says baseball isn't a religion? (Now #8452 in the Cubs Season Ticket Wait List...)
I guess it is a safe bet Theo will put a bid in.
We will never know the amount unless the Cubs win the lottery. Interesting to see what moves are made. Fielder?, Darvish? , Bid for one of the Cuba players? I just hope the hell Theo/Jed are not done shopping.
Yes
I can’t believe he wouldn’t bid. Costs nothing. The issue is whether he’ll go all out and put in the kind of bid that landed Matsuzaka.
by Josh Timmers on Dec 9, 2011 12:43 PM CST up reply actions
So what's the post winter mtg order
Monday = Non-tender deadline
Wednesday = Bids are due for Darvish
Fielder? Cespedes?
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 9, 2011 12:48 PM CST up reply actions
Cespedes
hasn’t even been declared a free agent yet and we have no idea when he will be. There is a lot of paperwork that goes into something like Cespedes. I don’t think he signs anywhere until late-January,
Fielder is whenever Boras gets a bid he and Prince like. I think the problem for him is that the teams that want him (Washington, Baltimore and Seattle) are not the teams he wants to play for. I think they’re waiting for the Rangers or Cubs to get involved.
Hokkaido has four days after the bid are in to decide whether they want to accept the winning bid. There’s no chance they turn it down, but they may sit on it a few days for unknown reasons. Then you have 30 days to work out a contract.
by Josh Timmers on Dec 9, 2011 12:59 PM CST up reply actions
Thanks
Has any posted player not signed with an MLB team? I’m think that MLB teams know the ballpark of the deal before they bid. Or they feel almost compelled to sign the Japanese player given the posting cost.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 9, 2011 1:12 PM CST up reply actions
Yes
Last year. The Athletics won the big for Hisashi Iwakuma, but they could not come to terms with him and he was returned to Japan.
But there was no claim that the Athletics were negotiating in bad faith. They just had a different opinion of Iwakuma’s value than he did.
I should add
that Iwakuma thought he deserved a contract similar to Barry Zito’s. That’s why no one thought the A’s were negotiating in bad faith when they didn’t come to terms.
I 'm surprised you're advocating this Al
and Matt Murton looks like he’d fit right in with this current Cubs roster
He's a free agent
maybe he could ride in on a white horse and save the day at Wrigley.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 9, 2011 1:13 PM CST up reply actions
And that is the slowest developing 6-4-3 inning-ending double-play ever
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 9, 2011 2:46 PM CST up reply actions
No he has re-signed with his team in Japan.
The bottom is loaded with nice people, Albert. Only cream and bastards rise
by Doggie Stalker on Dec 9, 2011 4:49 PM CST up reply actions
Here's an interesting question
Say the Angels are convinced the Rangers are going to go all out to sign Darvish, which may actually be true. The Angels don’t have the money left over to sign him themselves, but they want to make sure the Rangers don’t get him, so they submit a ridiculous bid like $80 million, then offer Darvish a ridiculously low offer, knowing he won’t accept it and will stay in Japan, which the Angels prefer to him joining their division rival, and the Angels get their $80 million back. What’s to prevent something like this from happening? I could almost see the Yanks or Red Sox pulling a stunt like this to keep the other from getting someone they really want.
Harry Caray: Marshall is going back to LA to get cocaine for his injured foot.
Steve Stone: Harry, that’s Novocaine.
by Julio Zuleta's Voodoo on Dec 9, 2011 12:46 PM CST via iPhone app reply actions
This has been discussed before
The assumption is that the commissioner would step in and award negotiating rights with the #2 bid if it didn’t look like the winner was negotiating in good faith.
That's what I was assuming
Thanks.
Harry Caray: Marshall is going back to LA to get cocaine for his injured foot.
Steve Stone: Harry, that’s Novocaine.
by Julio Zuleta's Voodoo on Dec 9, 2011 1:05 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
Trivia
Would he be the first person of Iranian descent (Iranian father; Japanese mother) to make the majors?
"It's all in the game, yo"
I believe so
Might be someone with some distant Persian great grandfather sometime, but certainly no one who has an Iranian parent.
I would rather sign Darvish than Cespedes and we do need pitching. But, considering that Theo wants to make small deals I don’t see the Cubs spending big money on any of the free agents including Fielder, Cespedes, or Darvish.
I don't think he just wants to make small deals
I think he doesn’t want to mortgage the future with players who won’t be good or won’t be Cubs by the time the Cubs are in a position to contend.
The issue is whether or not you think Darvish is the kind of guy you could build a franchise around. If you think he’s just a short term play, then you need to pass.
I'll
pass. There is a man on third base in the video. If he is that good that should not happen.
by wild bill on Dec 9, 2011 1:51 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
Not sure if this has been mentioned....
but my god he takes forever between pitches.
What MLB pitcher doesn't these days?
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Steve Traschel was speedy...
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 9, 2011 2:48 PM CST up reply actions
Mark Buehrle
And that’s why the Cubs didn’t make a stronger bid. They didn’t think they could afford the hit to concession sales.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
From Danny Knobler via Twitter
“Cubs claim Jeff Bianchi off waivers from Royals”
Recycling Pujols money
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
Never heard of him.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Pretty much another recycled prospect...
Who does Theo think will turn these guys around?
THEO!
by wrigleyrocker12 on Dec 9, 2011 3:01 PM CST up reply actions
Who does Theo think will turn these guys around?
The people he’s put in place to do just that would be my guess.
Well why couldn't they turn Colvin around?
THEO!
by wrigleyrocker12 on Dec 9, 2011 3:07 PM CST up reply actions
You do know Dale Sveum rides a Harley, right?
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Sell the naming rights to the stadium
and buy everybody
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Cubs win....what a lucky break!!" ---Harry
its already a corporate name
so what would be the difference?
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
"Toyota Presents Wrigley Field"
or something like that
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Cubs win....what a lucky break!!" ---Harry
ha
yeah, I suppose that’d be a bit worse
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
More likely, they will sell naming rights to the triangle building...
… once it is built. Those naming rights have the advantage of being plastered in front of traffic on Clark St. 365 days a year.
I’d imagine McDonalds would like to have that.
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Huh? They already do - right across the street. Them golden arches light up real good at night.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Sure.
But a huge corporate logo on a six-story building would be a little more impressive.
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Something else to consider - there's always the chance Darvish could learn a thing or two about pitching once he's over here
Given his dominance of the NPB, I’d think it’s possible that he still has some potential to get better that he hasn’t tapped into yet, because frankly, he hasn’t needed to. If he gets challenged and/or roughed up a bit over here, maybe he reaches back and steps up his game.
And/or maybe under the tutelage of a skilled pitching coach, he can improve/fix certain areas. Have no idea if Bosio is capable in that regard, but somebody like Duncan, Peterson or Miller would probably be able to cut through the language/culture barrier and help him improve his game. And yeah, Maddux too were he still around.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
WTF is all this about?
I mean, really. Al, how much did you grouse over how much money was being spent by Hendry on unknowns or guys clearly not worth the money. We just got rid of a GM who ran this team like he was at a Four Winds craps table. That cannot continue going forward. Sorry, the reward isn’t worth the risk, especially when the starting rotation can be built for cheaper than what it would cost to sign this one unknown.
www.facebook.com/craighudak
by Craig in South Bend on Dec 9, 2011 3:30 PM CST reply actions
Hendry probably would've thrown $60 million at Kuroda
At least Theo looks to younger players. Hendry always gave too much money at too late an age. I’m not saying I’m 100% on board with what Darvish will cost, but I wouldn’t say Theo is Hendry in this regard.
Don't want him
Theo and Jed should be using the club’s money to go after the best player in the league and our generation, Albert Pujols. Oh wait..
Viva la Cubs Révolution!!!
all i know is that my gut says maybe
THEOOOOOOOOO (and Hoyer)
by jesus christos on Dec 9, 2011 4:11 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I'm in that camp too.
I think he’ll be better than most people think. But will he be worth the contract? I can’t say.
Theo! Good job, Tommy Boy!
Has there ever been a team that posted insane money just so a rival doesn't get the player?
From what I understand, you win the bid, you get exclusive rights to get a contract or else the player heads back to Japan. If this is correct, what’s to stop a team like the Royal’s from bidding 55MM and just stalling the negotiations and then let him go back to Japan just so a team like the White Sox/Yankee’s/Red Sox don’t win? Are there rules that expressively say it can’t be done?
No, but that would pretty much destroy the posting system.
No Japanese player would go through it again.
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Good, then maybe they'll let their players become actual free agents and we can stop this modified version of extortion.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 5:45 PM CST up reply actions 6 recs
Rec'd.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Go ahead and rec it, but that would probably destroy NPB.
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Matt Murton is currently a star in NPB....
I don’t think they will ever run out of average ML talent to have in their league.
They should either let players become real free-agents after some minimum mandatory service time or decide on some SET LEVEL of compensation instead of this “Posting Fee” nonsense.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 5:53 PM CST up reply actions
Why not extract the maximum willingness to pay of MLB clubs? It’d be stupid for them to leave money on the table when ML teams take their players.
It IS extracting the maximum...
it’s just that the ACTUAL PLAYER doesn’t get the maximum….and after a players contract is up…why are they still “their players”? I thought the labor battles of the past 100 years were fought to help end this kind of thinking.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 6:41 PM CST up reply actions
You sure about that?
Let’s say Darvish doesn’t agree to a ML contract with whoever wins the posting fee contest. So he goes back and plays in NPB in 2012.
Wouldn’t he then be a free agent in 2013? Free to sign with anyone anywhere and his old NPB team doesn’t get anything?
That’s how I thought it was set up.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I believe
… NPB players can’t be free agents until they’ve played nine full seasons there.
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For some reason, I thought it was something like six until they can be posted, and then free after seven
But nine sounds more in line with a repressive system worthy of SWL’s rabble-rousing, so you’re probably right.
I did read this the other day about the SS on whom the Yankees won the posting fee contest… the scuttlebutt in Boston is that he’s not going to sign with NY, he’ll go back and play in Japan 2012 and then sign with RedSox as a FA in 2013.
Wishful thinking or a viable strategy, I don’t know, but if 2011 was his 8th season, then everything makes sense.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I know that Kosuke Fukudome had to wait until he had nine full seasons
… then he signed with the Cubs as a free agent.
The posting system was designed to prevent mass exodus from NPB which could destroy the league. It’s not a perfect system, obviously.
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Yep - looks like nine is the magic number. From Wikipedia...
The system only applies to players currently under contract with a Japanese team, although players who have nine or more years of playing service with NPB are exempt.17 It does not apply to free agents, or to amateur players who have never played in NPB.18
They don’t come right out and say it but I think you can infer it takes 9 seasons to be a FA.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Wikipedia links
Here’s link to entry about the Nippon Professional Baseball league and the posting system.
Interesting stuff. Tie games are considered a “draw” after 12 innings (in regular season), replayed after 15 innings in postseason. Pacific League uses DH, Central League does not. Ball is slightly smaller and wound tighter. Central League’s version of the NLCS to determine who goes to the Japan Series is called the Climax Series. Man, Harry Caray would have loved broadcasting that… :-)
Also talks about FA loopholes that Nomo and Irabu used to avoid the posting process. And then there’s this little gem about Soriano (my bold)…
The final incident occurred in 1998, when Alfonso Soriano was unable to leave the Hiroshima Toyo Carp due to contract restrictions. Soriano disliked the intense Japanese practice schedule, and the Carp denied him a salary increase from $45,000 (the league’s minimum) to $180,000 per year.
I didn’t realize TJ was a Wikipedia author… :-)
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Like the Royals??
What are they? The Midwest Evil Empire?
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 10, 2011 12:48 PM CST up reply actions
Much too risky
I would be happy to invest $50-60M for him, even for only 3 years, but there’s no way that happens. The possibility of him busting is much, much more than most every $100M player. I think you have to look at Darvish similarly to a rookie. What rookies would you want to invest $100M into before he ever played a game.
I think this is a foolish way to spend money. I would be much more happy to pocket the money and go after the boon market after next season. Darvish is simply too risky.
by jerry morales rules on Dec 9, 2011 5:42 PM CST reply actions
GOIN TO SEE THE MUPPETS
TOTALLY STOKED
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Let's make a FanPost out of your Movie Review.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 5:58 PM CST up reply actions
ALRIGHT!
WORF IS ROWLF!
YOU’RE MISS PIGGY!
JOSH IS BEAKER!
AL IS MONSTER!
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Hiiiiiiii-YAW!!!!
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 9, 2011 6:06 PM CST up reply actions
Saw it on Opening Day.
Surprisingly enjoyable.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
I fell asleep.
Getting old sucks.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Agreed.
Josh is right. Back up your position vehemently.
Stop the namecalling and profanity.
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I say go for it
You’re looking at a potential #2 for what, 12 million a year? In a year when a Buerhle makes almost 15? There’s almost nothing out there not named Prince Fielder in free agency that’s worth holding the posting fee for, certainly nothing in starting pitching.
Year after year after year I watch the Cubs and their fans worry about putting guys on the field who can all hit three run bombs and watch them fail year after year after year because the other guy has solid starters one through four or five and quality relievers falling out their backsides. Whatever you want to say about Darvish, he’s been scouted to a fare-thee-well by at least more than half of MLB and been found worthy of dishing out that kind of money for. Get this done yesterday or you can sit around and enjoy another season of Rodrigo Lopez. I know which one I’m pulling for.
[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."
Get this done yesterday or you can sit around and enjoy another season of Rodrigo Lopez. I know which one I’m pulling for.
This.
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those are the only choices? Overpay for Darvish, or resign Lopez?
by Nunyabidness on Dec 9, 2011 9:34 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
You could also, I guess, sign about a dozen guys worse than Lopez for the money
I hear John Grabow is available.
[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."
by NobodySpecial on Dec 9, 2011 10:02 PM CST up reply actions
Man, some of you are coming up with REALLY odd arguments now
by Nunyabidness on Dec 10, 2011 1:48 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
You're the one with the either/or fetish
I’m simply saying
There’s almost nothing out there not named Prince Fielder in free agency that’s worth holding the posting fee for, certainly nothing in starting pitching.
Now, if you want to argue with that premise, throw out some names and stop randomly sniping. Put us all on the next Cubs rotation that would look better than Dempster/Wells/Garza/Darvish/Cashner and come cheaply enough to put the Cubs in playoff contention in 2012…
..because if you’re not worried about playoff contention in 2012, then all that money saved is wasted.
[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."
by NobodySpecial on Dec 10, 2011 10:13 AM CST up reply actions
Question
Why does everyone assume the payroll will remain the same as this past season. Haven’t heard this from ownership or the front office. With an additional 40 mil coming of the books after this coming yr I can see us jumping into the 150 mil range for the right players. Fielder and Darvish fit into Theo’s stated objective moving forward, I don’t buy the like father/like son future for Fielder as far as falling of the map after age 30. We need both of these guy’s and I believe that we’ll get it done. But what happens when we get into it with Iran.
This is great.
But what happens when we get into it with Iran.
I just hope the Japan side of him remembers WWII
You have nothing to back this up.
With an additional 40 mil coming of the books after this coming yr I can see us jumping into the 150 mil range for the right players.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
We need to back up opinions on this site now?
Tough crowd.
Wut?
I believe that the moon is made of spare ribs. I don’t have anything to back up that statement, but it’s my opinion so shutup!
by Nunyabidness on Dec 10, 2011 8:54 AM CST up reply actions
Okay, I'm not going to get into a full fledged argument over this, because I think you're just arguing to argue (if that made any sense....)
Two major differences:
1. The OP wasn’t pushing an obviously false opinion, it is something that could very well be feasible.
2. The OP wasn’t pushing their opinion off as fact or trying to convince anyone else to believe in their opinion.
The OP was speculating.
Period.
Where have you gone, Kiko Calero. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Of course they were! Jeebus, where did I ever infer they were not?
My entire last post is about the fact that they were speculating…
When people speculate, they are still generally to be speculating on something they can back up
instead of “the numbers will probably back me up, but we’ll never know”
by Nunyabidness on Dec 11, 2011 3:44 PM CST up reply actions
They were clearly not trying to push it off as anything more than their opinion.
They also never said the numbers would “back them up.” All they said was they wouldn’t be shocked if we increased payroll this year with so much coming off the books next year. That’s an opinion and they aren’t even attempting to push that opinion onto others.
I’m all for needing to back up statements, and am happy to admit I ask for links quite a lot when people make claims, but I also understand the difference of making a claim and stating a possibility as an opinion.
I’ve spent way too much time on this, I’m done – if we don’t agree then we don’t agree, so be it.
Al do you think we can win the bidding war for him.
The Yankee’s and Ranger’s are bidding for him. I think it might be over 30 mil just to chat with him.
There's no "bidding war".
Interested teams submit the posting fee they are willing to pay. Other clubs do not know what you bid. The top bid goes to Japan for exclusive negotiating rights.
So the “real” question would be: do you think the Cubs will submit a higher posting fee than the Yankees or Rangers (or others)?
And the answer is obviously…….. we don’t know.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
When the Red Sox paid $51,111,111.11
… (yes, that’s right) … for the rights to talk to Dice-K, there were stories — never proven, because the other bids were not revealed — that the Mets, who supposedly had the next highest bid, had been outbid by over $10 million.
We don’t know what any team will bid. Neither do the teams.
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I am absolutely against this
NPB stats do not translate to MLB stats. We may get a great player, but we are more likely to get a dud. No thanks.
RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010) and Ron Santo (February 25, 1940-December 2, 2010).
If you disagree with me in any way, you are wrong.
Japanese pitchers
start every 7th day vs MLB 5th day. Darvish typically threw up in the 130+ innings per game. He actually threw 150 and 156 pitches in back to back starts. If those numbers don’t spell DANGER!!!!
If it wasn't for the injuries, we'd be printing WS tickets right now.
If he can throw 130+ innings per game I say sign him now.
Realistically, he would throw fewer pitches per game here, but would pitch in more games. And even though they start every fifth game, there is often a day off thrown in.
130 innings in a game? ? Damn!
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Dec 10, 2011 9:39 AM CST up reply actions
So if a pitcher has thrown a lot of pitches and pitched a lot of innings
Is he more or less like to get a shoulder or elbow injury?
There is a school of thought that the best way to avoid arm injuries is to throw more and build up more arm strength. I think the Braves believed in this with Leo Mazzone.
Another factor should be the pitches he throws and how stressful those pitches are on his elbow or shoulder. Throwing a lot of fastballs is not considered to be stressful. It’s the breaking pitches that cause the stress.
I don’t think Kerry Wood had his elbow injury from throwing too many pitches. But instead from 1) not be in good enough shape and 2) throwing a very stressful slurve pitch.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 10, 2011 1:06 PM CST up reply actions
Nolan Ryan is another believer in throwing more not less
pitchers are coddled too much starting in little league. Teach them how to throw correctly, and then let them throw often and build strength.
As for KWood’s injuries, mechanics were the cause IMO. The overuse in high school exaggerated the problems in his mechanics. If he had better mechanics, the overuse may have not mattered.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Dec 10, 2011 2:13 PM CST up reply actions
I think you're right on the mechanics
It may have been a case of “Look what he can do” instead of “Look how he’s doing it”.
"Just shut up and play" - Matt Garza
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is an option." - Dale Sveum
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 10, 2011 2:17 PM CST up reply actions
yep
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Dec 11, 2011 10:29 AM CST up reply actions
Impossible to say what will convince other people to sign with the Cubs.
Making the team more competitive most likely can’t hurt though.
Sure. In the future...
…if he lives up to the hype.
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
Since starting pitching is more valuable than power
Darvish would be priority #1 … Fielder would be #1a.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
not
when you have to pay 30 mill for the right to sign him.what a fantasy world these players live him.in my lifetime time i wont make what the lowliest mlb player will make in a year.
I hope you make more than that in your lifetime.
$414, 500 divided by 45 years comes to $9211 and change a year. Of course that is last years minimum.
YES!
starting pitching needs to be our priority right now and Yu Darvish is where we need to start
Captain of the Darwin Barney Bandwagon. FUTURE HOF!!!!
by chcubsdomination on Dec 12, 2011 9:32 AM CST reply actions
And the new suggestion -- Rogers in the Trib:
Yu and Saunders? Now, at least there are possibilities. They won’t come close, but solid progress would look like this.
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