Who Should Be The Cubs' Fifth Starter In 2011?
by Al Yellon on Feb 14, 2011 8:40 AM CST
in Chicago Cubs News
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PrintIn this Tribune article which is mostly about the contract that Carlos Marmol is expected to sign today, manager Mike Quade is quoted as saying that the decision on an Opening Day starter hasn't yet been made:
Quade said he'll "milk" the Opening Day starter decision between Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano and Matt Garza as long as he can.
Personally, I think this start should go to Dempster. He has been consistently solid for the three years he's been in the rotation and has earned the honor. Also, Zambrano often amps himself up too much for an Opening Day start -- he'd probably do better on day two of the season. I think this is one reason Lou Piniella went that way -- Dempster first, Zambrano second -- in the 2008 playoffs. OK, so the series didn't work out. But the choice of starting pitchers, I believe, was correct. Matt Garza is new to the team, and although he's certainly a strong competitor and perhaps even the equal of Demp and Z, an Opening Day start is, in many ways, an honor. That's why I'd choose Dempster.
That probably slots Z second and Garza third. Unless Randy Wells totally botches spring training, he'll likely be the fourth pitcher in the rotation. Even though his overall numbers weren't great last year, once he finally got his head on straight, his last 17 starts produced a 1.34 WHIP and 3.53 ERA, decent enough for a No. 4 starter.
So that leaves the question -- who's No. 5? There are at least nine candidates, and who knows whether some dark horse might not come out of spring training and win this role. After the jump, the candidates. You can also vote in the poll and leave your own comments.
These are in alphabetical order.
Christopher Carpenter: not the Cardinals starter, this Carpenter is a top Cubs prospect. He's also pitched only three games above Double-A; though he has talent, he is likely ticketed for the Iowa rotation this year.
Andrew Cashner: here's the real wild card. Cashner was being groomed for the rotation throughout his minor league tenure -- he made only four relief appearances and 39 starts before being called up last May to the major league bullpen. Outside of two major meltdowns when he allowed six runs in an inning or less, he was quite solid in relief. With the reacquisition of Kerry Wood to take a setup role behind Marmol, Cashner will get a shot at starting. He might be the dark horse candidate to take this slot, even though he did not start after being recalled last year.
Casey Coleman: Coleman had a shaky debut in relief on August 2 against the Brewers. But once he was placed in the rotation on August 18, he posted a 3.33 ERA and allowed only three HR in 48.2 innings, going at least six innings in seven of his eight starts. He's kind of a poor man's Wells: he doesn't have great velocity, but knows how to locate his pitches and doesn't give up the long ball. He's also still young -- won't turn 24 until July.
Thomas Diamond: No. Just no. Diamond was once a top prospect of the Rangers. He struck out 10 in his major league debut as a starter last August -- the only Cub besides Mark Prior who had ever done that (since 1920). But he was pretty awful the rest of the way and he'll be 28 in April, no longer a prospect.
Braden Looper: Looper did not pitch at all last year and in 2009, was one of the worst starters in the National League for the Brewers, allowing a ghastly 39 home runs. He's 36 and like Wellemeyer, is in camp to show if he's got anything left. He probably doesn't, but again, he could wind up starting at Iowa. If not, he'll likely just be released.
James Russell: with the trade of Tom Gorzelanny to the Nationals, the Cubs have no lefthanded starters, which led Quade to say that Russell might get a shot at the rotation. This, in my opinion, would be one of those things that qualifies as a Really Bad Idea. Russell hasn't been a fulltime starter since his 2008 minor league season, and he was pretty bad at that (1.45 WHIP, 5.44 ERA). He's more useful as a LOOGY.
Jeff Samardzija: the Cubs are paying him $2 million on the final year of a five-year deal signed after he was drafted. He's been kind of jerked around between the major league bullpen, major league rotation and Iowa the last two years; it's hard to get consistency out of that. He is out of options, but it is unlikely anyone would claim him if he's waived with that salary, so if he doesn't make the major league rotation this year, he'll likely find himself back at Iowa again. The Shark has talent, but has never been able to consistently throw a third pitch which would allow him to go deep into games.
Carlos Silva: Silva surprised virtually everyone in baseball by going 8-0 with an ERA in the low three's to start the 2010 season, and nearly pitched his way on to the All-Star team. After that, though, he developed arm trouble and then a heart problem, and posted an atrocious 11.12 ERA after the All-Star break in four starts, and pitched only once after August 1. The Cubs are paying him about $6 million this year, so he'll get every chance to win this position.
Todd Wellemeyer: since he was traded away by the Cubs at the end of spring training 2006 for two minor leaguers who never made it, Wellemeyer's baseball odyssey has taken him through Florida, Kansas City, St. Louis, Springfield, Memphis, Fresno and San Francisco. He had a decent year starting for the Cardinals in 2008, but was pretty bad in 2009 and 2010. This is a "see if he's got anything left" signing -- if he does, he's probably headed to Iowa to be an injury-replacement starter.
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Given how good Silva pitched in April last year, i’d think he gets first shot at it unless he struggles mightily in spring training.
A note on Cashner – He only pitched around 120 innings in total last year, so you probably don’t want him to have to throw 200 this year. If he doesn’t get the 5-spot out of spring training, he can ride in the bullpen for a bit and get bumped to the rotation when Silva (or whoever) goes down.
Cashner has trained this winter to go into the season as a starter
If he gets the job, I’m sure he could handle starter innings
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
"My favorite food is Macaroni and Cheese, from the blue box." Geovany Soto
What...
5th starter in baseball has ever thrown 200 innings? I see your concern, but I don’t think it’ll come into play.
Marquis has had 200 inning seasons.
But he wasn’t a “fifth starter” then.
Here’s something I found out the other day. In the last ten years there has been only ONE team that has had even FOUR starters with 200+ innings. Guess which team?
That’s right, the 2003 Cubs: Zambrano, Prior, Wood and Clement all had 200+ inning seasons.
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Lou
still would have carried 12 relievers.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
as long as one can play LF
Chronologically inept since 2060
Q: Why did Chuck Norris cross the road?
A: Ditka
Ditka's mustache can block a Chuck Norris round house
If he's a back up starter
You send him to Iowa to keep his arm strength up
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
by Musicdude10 on Feb 14, 2011 11:18 AM CST up reply actions
Silva
See if he can get off to another good start, and then deal him to whoever’s willing to pick up the highest amount of his remaining salary.
Start Cashner, Carpenter and Coleman at Iowa, call up whoever seems best able to help the club when Silva gets dealt or cut. The 5th starter won’t be needed as much early on. Let the young guys get consistent innings at AAA, or in Cashner’s case, get him used to starting again.
Russell to the pen.
Wellemeyer, Samrdzija, Diamond, Looper…Just no. Please no. Not even for the 5th starter spot at Iowa.
by Southside Steve on Feb 14, 2011 8:57 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
On the same page
Milk Silva for whatever hes worth and then send him along the way. Cashner, Carpenter, and Coleman should all start in Iowa. I actually want Cashner there for most of the season so he can a full season of innings in. If anyone needs to get called up , I would like to first see Carpenter..
I hope Spellcheck puts it together this season. He could really shore up the bullpen .
by BadDecisions on Feb 14, 2011 9:14 AM CST up reply actions
Slight change in the schedule this year...
the Cubs have a slightly smaller number of April off days, so the 5th starter will still be slotted more often than not.
They have “just” 3 off days in April, none of which are spaced enough to allow one full skipping of a turn. Even if they chose to do a modified skip (keeping the top 4 on normal rest and just slotting in the 5th guy only when necessary), the 5th starter will still make a minimum of 4 April starts (nitpick… you could set it up for only 3, but then the 5th guy would have to start on May 1st).
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Yeah, I see what you mean
It’s still a week between starts each time for the 5th guy. In addition, it looks like that of the games for the # 5 guy, one is game 5 and the last two are both early season night games at Wrigley.
Keep the younger guys on a consistent schedule, unless Cashner proves himself to be a beast in ST. Then make Wells the # 5 guy
by Southside Steve on Feb 14, 2011 11:30 AM CST up reply actions
If Silva is right, I think he will win it...But his injuries may have finished him
Cashner or Coleman are probably it with Shark in the pen…
The others are wasting innings in spring training.
I wouldn't say that about Carpenter
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
"My favorite food is Macaroni and Cheese, from the blue box." Geovany Soto
True-I missed that one...He has a future, Wellmeyer and Looper do not.
We saw the best of Diamond last year and it was very exciting!
It takes two to make a deal
I’m sure the Cubs were looking for any suitor to take Silva. There just weren’t any. If the Cubs have a hope to deal him, it would be after some time during the season. Here’s hoping he has a good month or two.
by jerry morales rules on Feb 14, 2011 10:09 AM CST up reply actions
Very true.
I never like to “hope” for injuries, but since they are part of the game… maybe some team has a pitcher go down late in ST and gets desperate enough to make a deal (crosses fingers).
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Don't count on Silva getting traded even if another team has an opening.
He’s too much of an unknown. He did pitch very well for three months last season, but he hardly threw in the second half, and was bad when he did.
PLUS … he was terrible for two years in Seattle.
There's no way the Cubs trade him away for the full salary
They Cubs WILL pay a portion of it, it just depends on how much.
If Silva starts out well and some team that thinks it’s in contention loses a guy or two, would that team be willing to take a $2M gamble on Silva? I dunno. Maybe. I think the Cubs thinking on this is to try to reduce the $6M they owe him as much as they can.
It they can’t, they’ll cut him. One way or the other, I don’t see him on the roster past July 1.
by jerry morales rules on Feb 14, 2011 11:04 AM CST up reply actions
See below.
I agree with your final sentence. But I don’t see any team taking a $2 million gamble on Carlos Silva. It’s possible that some team will sign him to the minimum after he’s released, but other than that …
You are probably right
I think it’s a long shot that anyone will take him for any more than league minimum but the Cubs are $6M down. I don’t mind them taking the chance that maybe something positive might happen with him.
by jerry morales rules on Feb 14, 2011 11:25 AM CST up reply actions
I'm not sure what you're saying.
Are you saying that you don’t see any reason not to be optimistic, or that the Cubs should trot him out there (instead of a younger, more promising pitcher) in hopes that he’ll put together a few good starts and merit a trade?
If you’re saying the second thing, I’d say you’re very, very wrong. The Cubs need to get off to a fast start. If Silva is pitching batting practice every fifth day, that’s gonna be a lot harder to do.
I am saying that the Cubs should trot Silva out
Cashner is going to get his shot at the rotation at least by Opening Day 2012, but now I don’t think that he can throw 200 innings. I’d first like to see him take a 33% jump up to just 160.
But when Silva was in the rotation the first half of the year, it was anything but BP. He was actually good. It’s not talent with him. It’s injuries.
by jerry morales rules on Feb 14, 2011 11:45 AM CST up reply actions
I would rather see Coleman get the start over Silva
Silva has no trade value, even if he get off to a strong start. He will likely be cut before July 1. If Cashner has a strong spring, there is no reason not to put him into the rotation.
I have PMS & a GPS -- which means -- I am a bitch, and I will find you.
by cub in louies nest on Feb 14, 2011 12:02 PM CST up reply actions
What about the fact that Cashner has never thrown more than 120 innings?
Do you think he can handle 33 starts and 200+ innings? I don’t. Do you think the Cubs want to take that chance? I don’t think they do.
Coleman is interesting. I’d like to see a bit more from him in ST before I really form an opinion on him.
by jerry morales rules on Feb 14, 2011 12:11 PM CST up reply actions
5th starters
DO NOT throw 200 innings. If he got 175 and 30 starts that would be significant. A rotation doesn’t line up 1-5, 1-5, 1-5 for the entire year where each starter gets 32.5 starts.
The times they are a-changin'
The Cubs have 3 open days in April this year. The argument that you don’t need a 5th for he first 3 weeks of the season is not valid this year.
Additionally, I think that if one was to stagger his starts,(3 on a regular 4 day rest, skip a start, and then 3 more starts) that would be even worse than starting him every 5th day.
200 innings might be a stretch, but if he’s the 5th starter, he is in there not as a spot starter or as fodder that just fills out the rotation. When he’s ready, he needs to pitch every 5th day.
by jerry morales rules on Feb 14, 2011 1:26 PM CST up reply actions
Dunno - Texas bet $3M on Webb and he will be a mid-season addition at best
Webb was certainly better when healthy than Silva, but he is also even riskier.
At least the fat guy with the bum ticker pitched in 2009 and 2010 and hasn't needed mulitple shoulder surgeries
But neither one would be a GM’s first pick for the rotation if given a choice.
I do think that for Silva to generate any interest, he has to look good in spring training.
I'd like to see how they are in spring training
before deciding.
Ah…I miss the days of a four man rotation.
I wish for Coleman, Cashner, Samardija, Silva and Russell to all make the team.
I’d really like to see what Coleman and Cashner could do in the rotation for a season
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
"My favorite food is Macaroni and Cheese, from the blue box." Geovany Soto
Didn't the Cubs say Spellcheck won't be in the rotation?
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
"My favorite food is Macaroni and Cheese, from the blue box." Geovany Soto
They've come out and said he will be in the pen
Which he isn’t ecstatic about
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
by Musicdude10 on Feb 14, 2011 11:20 AM CST up reply actions
Well then...
that makes everyone even, because, we ain’t ecstatic over him coming outta the pen either.
"I think part of a best friend's job should be to immediately clear your computer history if you die." - Anonymous
Is it just me..
Because I’m really starting to like the possibilities of this rotation and bullpen. WE just may be competitive this year.
My tongue is stained blue
from the Kool-aid, but I do believe the Cubs will surprise more than a few people this year.
I have PMS & a GPS -- which means -- I am a bitch, and I will find you.
by cub in louies nest on Feb 14, 2011 12:05 PM CST up reply actions
Hopefully Quade summons Lou Brown
“I’m not much for giving inspirational addresses, but I’d just like to point out that every newspaper in the country has picked us to finish last. The local press seems to think that we’d save everyone the time and trouble if we just went out and shot ourselves. Me, I’m for wasting sportswriters’ time. So I figured we ought to hang around for a while and see if we can give ’em all a nice big shitburger to eat!
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one of my favorite quotes from one of my favorite movies. One of these years – I’m betting on 2013 – it’s gonna apply to the Cubs.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Cashner has the highest ceiling
If we wanna have any chance of making the playoffs then Cashner might be that wild card that will have a break out year.
Coleman is my number 2 choice after Cashner. Silva has way to many health concerns and i think hes a bullpen guy from now on.
Haven't reviewed schedule in detail, but assuming the 5th starter will be spot-starting most of April...
…I’d rather not put Cashner in a position where there’s potential to be jerked around between starting and long-relief. If he’s being groomed as starter, better to get him in steady rhythm in Iowa to start the season.
If Silva shows anything in ST, I’d say give it to him at least for April. He’s a veteran, knows the score, had early season success last year and most important of all (to put it in Rambo terms), he’s expendable.
But I’d feel equally comfortable putting Coleman in there as well, assuming he pitches decent in ST. He’s pretty much the opposite of Silva in terms of criteria previously listed, but I like his makeup. He may not have the best stuff, but he’s not going to get rattled. I think he can deal with the hassles of being a early-season 5th starter and it won’t bother him nor be a detriment to his development.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
See above... 5th starter won't be able to be skipped much this April.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
thanks for the schedule analysis
I’d still like to keep Cashner at Iowa – let him (hopefully) dominate there and be ready for a callup whenever the Cubs need it.
If Wells is looking good and the consensus amongst coaching staff is the Silva is pretty much done, then I’d be willing to roll dice on Coleman iin 5th spot.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
My prediction is Randy Wells gets sent to Iowa.
Just seems the Cubs are really down on him.
Hey, it's a new century!
I don't think Wells has options left.
He’d surely be claimed on waivers. Plus, he had a good second half.
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I'm pretty sure he has at least 1 option year left,
but maybe he has enough service time to block being sent down.
Baseball is back!!
by cowsarecool220 on Feb 14, 2011 10:07 AM CST up reply actions
I still think Wells makes the team...
… unless he has a terrible spring.
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My vote was Coleman
But really I’d like to see Coleman or some equivalent to start the year with Cashner taking over mid-season (to keep his IP under control). At that point, Coleman could to to the bullpen.
Cashner
for now and the future, he is the best #5. Skip him with days off keeping his starts to around 28. Keep his innings sub 165-170 (about 5 to 6 innings per start). He could be the #2 or #3 in 2012.
It clearly was a game in Chicago.
Cashner is wearing a Cubs home uniform, and you can see an Angels uniform in the background. It’s from the series last year in June.
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It does kind of look like a spring training photo
With the tarp blocking the wall.
by Shanghai Badger on Feb 14, 2011 10:36 AM CST up reply actions
It's just the angle of the photo...
… you don’t see any of the Wrigley brick wall in there, so it looks like a ST photo. But it’s not.
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I voted for Cashner.
But because the Cubs are paying Silva so much $, if he shows anything decent in spring training, he’ll probably get it.
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No.
I don’t understand the Soriano hate here. He actually had a pretty decent year in 2010.
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I guess not.
There are players I don’t care for. But I don’t “hate” any of them.
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I put 'hate' in quotes.
It just seems like whenever people are criticizing a player, you say:
I don’t understand the _______ hate here
Soriano, Hill… I’m sure there are others going back.
And TBH, I don’t see what’s confusing about the Soriano ‘hate’. Obviously he didn’t sign himself to that contract, but the expectations are there. Add in the perceived laziness, the mental blunders (not running out balls that hit 1/3 the way up the wall), the injuries, the continued flailing at curve balls landing in the left hand batters box… it’s pretty easy to see why so many people are down on him.
To be fair Al, a lot of times you're the one putting the 'hate' label on it
There might be a series of negative posts about a player without the word ‘hate’ ever being used. Then you or someone else will come along and post “I don’t understand the [insert player name] hate here”. Which is okay, in that I think we all understand the point being made. But it’s a stretch to say that just because negative comments are written about a player means he is “hated”. Maybe all the comments are coming from folks who just don’t care for that particular player – just like you don’t care for other players.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I don't think anybody hates Soriano.
He seems like a pretty good guy, and injuries after he signed the deal really changed him as a player. That said, he’s 35, and he’s due to earn $18 million a season for FOUR more years. He’s not a terrible player, but his contract and his deficiencies as a player really hem the Cubs in.
I didn't say anything about hating Soriano....
I just think .250 with 24 HR and 70 something RBI can be had by many journeyman OF out there.
Add in what Schwa said about bad fielding and laziness and thus the comments…
Colvin and Soriano had similar stats last year…..Lets say we had a solid RF, and we had to pick between the 2. If they made the same money, you would think Colvin would start ahead of Soriano because he bats LH and is a MUCH better fielder. But since Soriano makes 18-19 Million a year it seems he would start.
Well ...
that’s kind of interesting. But Colvin is far from a sure bet.
We know what Soriano is....
pretty much an average OF with fielding problems that strikes out to much. But has 2 hot streaks a year when he is the best hitter in baseball that inflate his stats for the year.
I am saying that if he made a normal salary, he may have already been gone…
Problem is, we have 3 'average' outfielders
I could handle a veteran average more/less on his way down (Soriano) and a young average w/ potential to go up (Colvin), if they were sandwiched around a stud outfielder like Crawford, Kemp, etc. But we’ve got Byrd in the middle, who I like, but I’d also have to say is pretty average.
Swap out any one of them for a stud and I think we’d be alright.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Soraino had a fast start in 2010 and dragged his way through the summer
To be fair, both Byrd and Colvin also declined as the season progressed, probably for different reasons. For any of the three, I would live with their average production from 2010, but would rather see that production spread evenly through the year.
I voted for Cashner as well.
It would be great if Silva got off to the same start as last yr but I dont see that happening.
#10 You will be missed.
by Bricks and Ivy on Feb 14, 2011 10:06 AM CST up reply actions
"Decent for a 4th starter"?
Even though his overall numbers weren’t great last year, once he finally got his head on straight, his last 17 starts produced a 1.34 WHIP and 3.53 ERA, decent enough for a No. 4 starter.
Those are very good numbers for a 4th starter. Outside of elite teams like Philly, you aren’t going to find better 4th starters. Hell, even the Yankees would kill for a 4th starter like that for this upcoming season. Wells had a couple of really bad outings last year in big spots. But he generally pitched well last season. As a second year pitcher, anyone that is giving up on him needs to have their head examined. He doesn’t have the best arm on the team, but his performance has been good since he arrived in MLB.
The disrespect that Randy Wells gets here (and from the Cubs) on a regular basis is pretty surprising.
by JSB on Feb 14, 2011 9:58 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
No disrespect meant.
I like Randy Wells. As long as he keeps his focus, he’s a solid mid-rotation MLB starter.
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I don't think anybody disagrees there.
But Wells was better than decent based on the numbers you provided for his final starts.
The problem is
if you look below (and in basically every Garza inspired thread), there ARE people who disagree. Now, they are wrong… but they do exist.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Fair enough.
FWIW, I think Randy Wells will bounce back — and I bet Quade, in his heart of hearts, expects Randy to be the fourth starter. He just doesn’t want Randy to rest on his past success again.
Which is a good idea.
And Wells himself said he is going in as if he doesn’t have a guaranteed job, which is the right attitude.
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Wells doesn't need to bounce back
FWIW, I think Randy Wells will bounce back
His 2009 and 2010 were practically identical. He just got more good luck in 2009. His DIPS numbers were actually improved in 2010. If Wells repeats his 2010 performance, the Cubs will have a good 4th starter.
Dude, you're being too much of a nitpicker on this.
I am bullish on Randy Wells. But if Randy Wells says Randy Wells needs a bounceback year …
Randy Wells is saying what the Cubs want him to say
He also like most athletes probably expects more out of himself than he should.
Why are you being so argumentative on this, JSB?
Wells, by his own admission, didn’t focus enough last year. I agree that he should and probably will be in the rotation. I agree that the criticism of him was too harsh around here and that he was a victim of bad luck in 2010.
But he has said he’s not happy with the year he had and that he wants to get better. Saying that he will bounce back is hardly groundbreaking.
I'm pushing back on the idea that Wells was bad in 2010
It annoyed me all season long. And I don’t want to hear about how improved he is this season if he puts up basically the same numbers with a slightly improved ERA.
Well, push against somebody else.
I’m bullish on Wells, for crying out loud. And if HE says he needs a bounceback year, I’ll take him at his word.
The disrespect is warranted
He was inconsistant last year and admitted his head wasn’t totally on baseball, hence the “Wild Thing” analogy him gave himself. He needs to prove himself this year.
by BadDecisions on Feb 14, 2011 10:09 AM CST up reply actions
Questioning Wells dedication is warranted, based on his own admissions.
JSB’s point is that Wells’ “struggles” last year are a bit overstated. He had a couple of very, very bad games… no doubt.
But he was largely effective. Check out his game log.
A sometimes overrated stat, but he made 18 quality starts last year (with one start missing by 1/3 of an inning and another start where he pitched 5 shutout innings on two days rest after his awful zero out performance a couple days prior). That’s the exact same number of the SP we acquired this offseason.
Wells’ peripherals also largely were not much different than the previous year.
We’d all like him to get better, and I’m sure he would, too. But if he put up the exact same season as last year… that’s still a very, very above average line for a 4th starter.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
by fsuapollo on Feb 14, 2011 10:20 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
The disrespect isn't warranted
He shouldn’t have to “earn” his job in spring training. Despite your claimed “inconsistency” last year, he was still the Cubs second most valuable pitcher after Ryan Dempster.
by JSB on Feb 14, 2011 10:21 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Well, Ted Lilly was more consistent...
… before he was traded.
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No.
But you weren’t talking about this year. You were talking about last year.
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My statement was factually accurate
Wells was the second most valuable pitcher the Cubs had last year. Neither Lilly nor Z threw enough innings to beat out Wells’ quantity.
The idea that Wells is fighting for a rotation spot in spring training is laughable. Particularly when they gave up 4 prospects to acquire a pitcher that is just a bit better.
I agree regarding some comments about Wells. He had a couple of freakish
games where he couldn’t get out of the first or second inning, but other than that was pretty solid. And your comment about the Yankees is a solid point. If it looks as though the Cubs have an excess of starting pitching coming out of spring training (if there is such a thing), a guy like wells could be a pretty good trade chip.
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
I would vote for combo Silva/Cashner
Start Cashner in AAA so that he has routine work. Let Silva get skipped here and there the first few months, and when Silva’s health eventually deteriorates so much that he can’t pitch, bring up Cashner (assuming he is handling AAA fine, if not, bring up Coleman).
And I think it’s been stated that Samardzija is going to be a reliever.
if cubs are ever going to get any return on the investment
that has been made in smardzija, this must be the year. if the shark has even a halfway decent spring, then, were it it up to me, i would plug him in to the 5 spot & keep him there.
It's a sunk cost
Giving him the #5 slot based on his past contract and nothing else merely compounds the mistake.
by Shanghai Badger on Feb 14, 2011 10:45 AM CST up reply actions
Assuming the Cot's number (see fsuapollo's post below) is right, I think this would qualify as a "stunk" cost.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Question on Shark's contract.
I keep seeing it repeated that Shark is making ~$2M this year.
Cot’s has him at $3.5M, which of course only makes it worse. Is this a mistake in Cot’s spreadsheet… or is something else missing??
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
It may be that there's a signing bonus that's part of this year's deal.
Anyone know?
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$3M was for 2010.
The spreadsheet I linked shows the 2011 obligations, which lists $3.5M for Shark.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
With the news about Silva ...
and Shark’s ineffectiveness, it’s very possible that the Cubs could have close to $10 million in pitching on the DL, released or in Iowa on April 1.
I thought the consensus from the Cub brass was that Cashner is the 4th starter.
Screw the haters. It's Cutler time.
How will the loss of Larry Rothschild impact the pitching performance?
The Cubs rotation has performed very consistently during his tenure as coach. Is it talent, or coaching… or both? We’ll find out soon enough.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
If/when the Cubs try (emphasis on "try") to move Silva...
…it’ll be telling if the Yankees are interested or not, given that Rothschild is now their pitching coach.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Even though his overall numbers weren’t great last year, once he finally got his head on straight, his last 17 starts produced a 1.34 WHIP and 3.53 ERA, decent enough for a No. 4 starter.
A 3.53 ERA is good enough to be a 2 or 3 starter. Wells is a 4 starter at best, but he had a pretty solid last part of the season
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
I continue to be stunned by the optimism surrounding Carlos Silva.
Nothing personal against the guy, but I think we’re all forgetting that he had been TERRIBLE for two years before coming to Chicago. Best case scenario in my mind is that he starts for two months, pitches decently and loses his job to Cashner (or somebody else in June).
But I think a trade — even if the Cubs pay most of his salary — is almost impossible. Overweight pitches with arm problems, heart problems, attitude problems (through the years) and only ONE good half of baseball since 2007 just aren’t that coveted — even if they only cost $1 million or so.
Optimish surrounding Silva...
from who? I haven’t seen anyone talk about him potentially being good. I think everyone realizes that the first half was a fluke. Silva sucks. If he weren’t owed 6M this year, he wouldn’t be invited to camp.
Look at the polls results.
More than a third of the voters think Silva will be the Cubs opening day starter. Others think he could be traded.
I think
many, myself included, are voting on who they think will be the 5th starter and not who should be.
by Southside Steve on Feb 14, 2011 11:36 AM CST up reply actions
That's a fair point.
Still, I doubt he pitches well enough/stays healthy enough to warrant the fifth starter spot — especially considering all the competition.
I'm in the "hope against hope that he could be traded" camp
But if he isn’t healthy or got more out of shape over the winter, the waiver wire would be the least bad outcome for Silva.
Yabbut
It wasn’t just one or two starts in regards to Silva. He was solid until the injuries sidelined him. Those 2 years with Seattle were also injury plagued.
While it is difficult to imagine that Silva remain healthy, it does seem that that, as opposed to lack of talent, it is what most effects him.
by jerry morales rules on Feb 14, 2011 11:29 AM CST up reply actions
But you can't ignore his health issues ...
when you’re making a prediction about him. Sure, he’s been better when healthy, but he hasn’t been very healthy or even very good (outside of the first half last season) since 2007.
True
But last year the White Sox took a $4M gamble on one month of Manny Ramirez. I thought that was a good move for them in the situation they were in. I just don’t see it impossible for, say, a team to take a $2M gamble for 4 months of Silva if he has a start like he did last season.
Injuries can’t be taken out of the equation. That’s why he’d be so relatively cheap as he is now.
by jerry morales rules on Feb 14, 2011 11:55 AM CST up reply actions
Apples and oranges.
Sorry, we’re gonna have to agree to disagree. You seem to think that his injury history will only work as a caveat to his performance — i.e. teams will say he’s worth a flyer because he was good last year when he was healthy.
That seems completely counter to what will actually happen, IMO.
Not entirely a caveat
If it were solely a caveat, the Cubs wouldn’t have an issue dealing him for the full $6M. The haircut that they will have to take on him is because of his health concern.
by jerry morales rules on Feb 14, 2011 12:59 PM CST up reply actions
You're making too much out of one good first half.
Remember, he sucked in 2009 and 2010. Yes, he was injured, but he wasn’t even good in those years when he was healthy (unless there were nagging injuries that we don’t know about).
And given the news today, I’d say his attitude issues aren’t exactly something another team would ignore.
Chances are
we’re probably getting way too into semantics here. I do think I’m taking all of that into account and thats why he’s as cheap as he is. Even if someone were to spend $2M on him, that’s 1/6th of the amount that he originally signed for. It’s not as if the first half of 2010 was his only success in major league ball. 3 of the 4 years in Minn were also good.
by jerry morales rules on Feb 14, 2011 1:19 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed
And Carl Pavano’s last good season prior to 2010 was 2004.
by jerry morales rules on Feb 14, 2011 1:28 PM CST up reply actions
Pavano was OK in 2009 and he made 33 starts.
For that season, he earned a $1.5 million base salary. His contract was laden with incentives.
He got $7 million for 2010 (probably) because he could eat innings. There’s no proof that Silva can do that now. Was there proof that Pavano could before 2009? Not really — but Pavano also wasn’t overweight and coming off a heart condition.
Citing Pavano was sort of interesting. But I’m still not convinced.
Exactly
In 2009, he got a $1.5M base plus incentives. If another team were to deal for Silva, there would be no additional incentives. I don’t think another team rolling the dice at $2M is that impossible.
While Pavano did eat innings in ‘09, he also had an ERA over 5 and he still got a $7M contract. I’d venture to guess that the $7M was because he could eat innings and not the $1.5.
by jerry morales rules on Feb 14, 2011 1:44 PM CST up reply actions
You're making some good points.
But Pavano STILL didn’t have heart problems and a history (and present) of being out of shape.
What does it matter? If Silva flames out, you can adjust. Precious Casey Coleman isn’t going anywhere. And he doesn’t NEED to eat innings to have value. Silva was worth two wins last year in 113 injury-shortened innings.
Start with him and adjust as needed. There’s no logical argument to start with Coleman or anyone else. Cashner PROBABLY isn’t ready yet. If he is, great.
You're really putting words in my mouth.
Who said Casey Coleman is ‘precious’?
My objection is to handing the starting job to Silva without considering performance in ST. What’s so wrong with that?
A small sample ...
is Silva’s first half last year. A larger sample are the 2008 and 2009 seasons, in which Silva was either hurt or completely ineffective.
Actually those were injury-shortened small samples as well … so that’s ironic. Not to mention: he was pretty effective in both of those season and just had absolutely terrible luck (ie. the Mariners fielders).
He made 28 starts in 2008.
So he’s an effective pitcher when he’s not injured or really unlucky. Got it.
That's quite true
Certainly, it’s a stretch but I do think there is a fair amount of risk taking that teams in desperate times would be willing to take. You don’t have to convince a majority of GM’s to do it, just one.
by jerry morales rules on Feb 14, 2011 2:00 PM CST up reply actions
I have to disagree to a point.
If he’s healthy in spring training, you don’t NOT give him the job (if the results warrant, of course) because he has a history of being injured and might (okay, will) get hurt.
If he pitches well enough, you run him out there until he gets hurt or is ineffective and then you replace him.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
If Silva outpitches everybody else, sure.
I’m not saying he shouldn’t get the job if he pitches better than the rest of the field. I’m saying I doubt that he will, and I’m amazed that so many BCBers are so bullish.
I’m also worried that he’ll get the spot even if he doesn’t pitch as well as the young guys in ST — because of his salary and because the Cubs think they might be able to find a taker after a month of good starts. That, to me, would be a big mistake.
Bullish?
If “He might get 8 or nine starts before being axed”, yeah.
As long as he throws strikes when the wind is blowing in, he’ll be okay. For a fifth starter.
More than a third of the voters on this poll think he'll be the fifth starter.
Now, as someone else said, that might be what some voters think will happen — not what they want to happen. But still …
What's not to be bullish about?
Silva was a very solid back end guy last year. 6.37 K/9, 1.91 BB/9, 3.75 FIP? The guy was really good. His only real issue was his health, which has been an issue his entire career. But that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t go with him until he gets hurt. He’s the fifth best starter in this organization in 2011. Period.
That's just ridiculous.
So if Cashner, Coleman or somebody else outpitches Silva this ST — or severely outpitches him — it doesn’t matter?
Of course it does … but that hasn’t happened yet, so people can’t vote as if it has. Cashner will likely start in AAA to work as a starter, and I’m totally fine with that. Especially given how well Silva performed when healthy last season.
We're making predictions.
So unless there are ground rules that nobody told me about, I can take stock in Coleman’s starts down the stretch or Cashner’s high ceiling over a guy who’s had ONE good half since 2007.
Well...
Actually what we’re doing is saying who will be the 5th starter out of spring training. But yeah, I guess your argument is that guys who have 100 > career MLB innings under their belt have proven they’re better than a guy who had a sub-4 FIP last year? Really?
We’re talking about Casey Coleman, right? The guy who nearly had a 1/1 K/BB ratio last year? Yeah he’s just AWESOME man. SIGN. HIM. UP. Make him the ace. Good call.
Right. Because I said Coleman should be the ace.
Coleman is intriguing, but Cashner’s the real prize. I’d hate for Silva to block either of them.
Now, if Silva clearly outpitches them in ST, then yes, Silva should get the rotation spot.
Agreed: Cashner is the prize. What I want is what is best for Andrew Cashner, and I think that’s PROBABLY starting in AAA as the #1, and getting the ball there as much as possible.
If he’s the 5 on the Cubs he’s going to get skipped. And he has zero experience starting in the Majors. There’s no reason whatsoever to rush him, especially if Silva can do a capable job as the No. 5 until he’s ready (which he certainly can).
And THAT's the assumption that I think is in error.
Silva is so capable that the Mariners shipped him and $12 million to the Cubs for Milton Bradley! I think a lot of people are looking at one good half-season and forgetting Silva’s previous struggles, his health issues and the attitude problems he reportedly had in Seattle.
He was also the most unlucky pitcher in baseball those two years. The difference between his ERA and his fielding independent numbers are ENORMOUS. Not his fault. The guy he was last year is completely supported by his underlying statistics.
Not acceptable.
You can have a discussion with someone where you disagree. Saying “calling out your ignorance” — not acceptable, especially with someone as well respected here as elgato.
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Also, dude
Voting that he’ll be the fifth starter isn’t exactly a “bullish” statement. You’re making an assumption that just isn’t logically there.
All people are saying with that vote is that Carlos Silva will be better than the kids (Cashner and Carpenter) who have ZERO MLB track record as starters and the other human garbage in that poll.
Did you vote for him? Are you bullish on Silva?
I realize that not everybody who voted for Silva wants him to start. But enough people have been bullish about Silva in other posts (and in this thread).
I lean toward Silva
because he was fantastic pre-injury last year. So, if he is healthy and not terrible, then, IMO, he should get the spot to start the season.
I don’t want the Cubs putting too much stock in 25 ST innings, most of which are against AA, AAA, and AAAA players.
Right or wrong (I lean toward the latter) the Cubs believe they will compete this year. Thus they will go with the veteran arm unless he is hurt and/or severely out-pitched by one of the other candidates. And I am fine with that.
But I also completely understand the perspective of those who aren’t. Ideally, dollars wouldn’t matter… but they do. So they’ll try to get something out Silva until/unless he proves he can’t go (or is dealt).
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
And my point is ...
Silva shouldn’t have to be SEVERELY outpitched to not get a shot in the rotation. But we’ll agree to disagree.
Just so I understand
If Casey Coleman has an ERA of 3.20 this spring and Silva has an ERA of 4.00… based on a sample of roughly 25 innings against mostly minor leaguers… then the spot should go to Coleman?
Based on who I’d “want”… sure. But it’s not going to happen. We all hate that it does, but money matters… and it isn’t going to change.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
There is a distinction between should and will here that's getting lost.
I don’t think Silva will get the rotation spot because I doubt he does anything of consequence this ST. I bet his innings are really limited based on his health.
I also think Coleman SHOULD get the spot in the scenario outlined above, though I understand how money does talk in these situations.
I guess a big part of the difference is the assumption about health.
If Silva can’t pitch more than 15 innings, then he certainly won’t get (nor deserve) the 5th spot. And I don’t think anyone on here, including those who are “defending” Silva would say he should.
Let’s all hope Silva shapes up… so they can ship him out.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
More likely
Silva would be barged out. Silva has never shown any evidence he’s willing to get in professional shape. To me that means it’s not a matter of if he’ll break down but rather when.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
He was a better pitcher ...
until he got hurt and hardly pitched in the season’s second half. And he was one of the worst players in baseball in 2008 and 2009.
Assuming that he’ll be early 2010 Silva is wrong.
So they shouldn’t start with him because he got hurt in the middle of last season? Where’s the logic in that? This is a new year. You have to presume he’s healthy until we hear otherwise.
And why is that assumption wrong? Can you support your argument with facts? Or do you have merely opinions?
Here's what I don't get.
If he was so good (but unlucky) in 2008 and 2009, why were the Mariners so desperate to get rid of him?
That’s hardly a valid argument. Teams make all sorts of decisions all the time. Some are wise, some are not. The fact that the Mariners made a decision (traded him for Bradley) doesn’t really mean anything.
Also you’re assuming they were desperate to get rid of him. It’s entirely possible they saw Milton Bradley as an underrated asset and thought getting him and unloading Silva’s contract would benefit their organization. So be it. That clearly didn’t turn out to be the case, though, so I wouldn’t put a ton of stock in “what the Mariners decided to do.”
Oh, come on.
The Cubs were in a complete bind, and the Mariners acquired Bradley AND paid a good deal of Silva’s salary. The trade was an exchange of toxic assets.
The Cubs were in a PR bind. Bradley had played his way out of favor with the fans, and little of that had to do with actual on field performance. It was entirely possible they were getting an asset that could help them (remember, they had a terrible lineup then, too) and unloading a contract they could not afford.
The Cubs were in such a PR bind ...
that the Mariners paid them $12 million
I mean … this really has NOTHING to do with the actual discussion here: who should start for the 2011 Chicago Cubs.
It was an exchange of toxic assets in which both teams thought they’d be better off (as is what happens when teams trade). Cubs thought they could salvage some value from Silva, whose stats indicate he was extremely unlucky in Seattle, and the Mariners thought they could do the same with Bradley.
Anyway, can we talk about the real issue here? What the Mariners decided doesn’t hold any real weight in this discussion.
We have been talking about the issue.
You think, unless Silva is outpitched by a mile or hurt, that he should be a starter for the Cubs. I think he needs to pitch better than the other fifth-starter candidates.
We clearly disagree. I’m not sure what else there is to say.
Assuming that he’ll be early 2010 Silva is wrong.
But so is assuming that 6 starts during September call-ups and 25 innings against minor leaguers would indicate how someone would perform during a full season.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Totally agree.
But Silva shouldn’t just be handed the job. He needs to win it in ST.
No. No he does not. Evaluating players based on a handful of meaningless spring training performances is EXACTLY what teams SHOULD NOT DO. We have plenty of valuable evidence about Carlos Silva to make a judgement about his entire body of work without putting a ton of stock into a small sample size.
He showed last year when he was healthy he can be very effective. Until he gets hurt, he’s your guy.
So, if he's healthy ...
but gets absolutely shelled in ST, you hand him the job over everybody in the mix — even if Cashner or Coleman are lights out this ST?
If Cashner’s lights out, I give him the job. If Coleman is … I don’t care. There’s plenty of evidence showing that he is not very good at baseball.
So if Coleman is good, and Silva is shelled ...
you give Silva the job? Really?
Wow....
That is just wrong about Coleman
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
"My favorite food is Macaroni and Cheese, from the blue box." Geovany Soto
I don't think he should be handed the job...
but he should be the incumbent.
Which is why, IMO, he should have to be severely outpitched (or be hurt, of course) to be beaten out.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Well, then we just disagree.
I think he needs to win the job. It shouldn’t be his if he is only slightly worse than another candidate.
Yeah I mean … I don’t think the Cubs are a playoff team either way. I’d rather develop Cashner properly than throwing him into the fire. And Coleman is perfectly suited for a relief role. Nothing more, no matter what kind of small sample size succes he puts up in ST>
If we are developing people, Silva is not worth pitching unless he is completely healthy and effective.
Anything else is a waste of a roster spot.
I suppose we do.
If the difference is slight, I don’t want decisions made on limited ST innings against lousy competition.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
I don't buy the he-was-good-when-healthy argument as a defense.
To me, that means it’s likely that he’ll get hurt and cost the Cubs games.
I will say this: If the competition is between Silva and Cashner, and it’s close … I could see sending Cashner to Iowa for more work.
That’s … insane. So basically you’re saying “We shouldn’t use Asset A because Asset A might get hurt and then we won’t get to use him, which will hurt the team.”
That logic is making my brain bleed. Silva is an effective pitcher. When he’s healthy enough to do so, the Cubs should have him pitch. They aren’t going to lose out on any of their current assets by rolling with him come April. Those guys will still be there. Coleman will still probably be walking as many dudes as he strikes out. Cashner will still probably need more seasoning.
You know what? Tyler Colvin got hurt last year. So the Cubs shouldn’t use him this year. Because then he might get hurt, and the Cubs would be without him, which would cost them games.
That's not what I was saying at all.
I’m saying Silva could pitch through slight injuries or minor ones and not be very good. And the Colvin comparison makes no sense — Colvin got hit by a broken bat. Silva has RECURRING arm and weight problems and had an irregular heartbeat.
Also, if Silva is effective when healthy, why was he 4-15 with an ERA over 6 in 2008 when he made 28 starts or 11-15 with an ERA of 5.94 in 2006 when he made 31?
That’s an assumption. And it’s not supported by anything other than your own idea, really. If he pitches through injuries and is ineffective that’s on the Cubs.
2008 = He pitched well and had a laughably high .342 batting average on balls in play (which studies have shown pitchers have very little control over). In short, he got really unlucky because the guys behind him couldn’t field worth a lick. His ERA was 6.46 and his fielding independent ERA was 4.63. A full two-run difference. If he had a 4.63 ERA would you feel this way? Probably not. You’re holding his bad fielders against him, unjustly.
Ah but I did! He was somewhat unlucky in balls in play (.313) and he had a career high hr/fb ratio. So be it. Whether or not you think he had control over that will color how you feel about it, but really? 2006 is your argument here? You’re all over the map, and mostly because your “arguments” keep getting blasted away.
See below.
And you didn’t immediately respond about 2006.
2006 = he wasn’t very good. That was also a full five years ago. I’m inclined to put a lot more weight in his numbers post 2006. Arguing he shouldn’t get the ball in 2011 because of what happened in 2006 is a real stretch.
So, let me get this all straight.
2006 = too long ago to consider (but he sucked)
2007 = decent (I’ll agree there)
2008 = incredibly unlucky (despite setting a career high in HR/9 and WHIP)
2009 = new career high in WHIP; demoted to the bullpen amid injuries
2010 = good first half; ineffective and injured in the second half
All of that makes you want to hand him a rotation job?
2006 = a long, long time ago. It matters, but not nearly as much as his most recent 4 years.
2007 = about the same pitcher he’s always been, just with average luck.
2008 = Yeah, incredibly unlucky. He got slaughtered in almost every advanced metric that pertains to luck (batting average in balls in play, strand rate, slightly unlucky in HR/FB)
2009 = Started 6 games, and ended up hurt. That small of a sample makes it tough to put a lot of stock in this season. Definitely counts that he missed so much time, though. If we were talking about handing him an entirely new contract it would be another discussion entirely. We’re not. He’s already under contract. The question is what to do with that contract.
2010 = He was really good. Walks were low, Ks were decent, his luck bounced back and he had a sub-4 fielding independent ERA. Great pickup by the Cubs, and one that can very servicably fill that #5 role.
Any other questions? I’m happy to help.
First of all, tone down the snark. Seriously.
Please point to where I said Coleman or Cashner earned anything. I want the fifth starter job to be filled with whoever has the best spring. I don’t want Silva to get the job if he’s outpitched.
Your devotion to the guy is frankly stunning. If he has a good spring, I’m happy with him as the fifth starter.
Snark is who I am!
And in all seriousness, this is just in good fun. I sincerely apologize if you’re taking offense. We’re just talking baseball here, in February. Ain’t no thang.
Nevertheless.
There are site rules here. And you’ve violated a whole bunch of ‘em, and you’re new. Go read the site rules and then come back and talk.
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I'd be curious ...
about the last time you didn’t take offense at being called ‘ignorant,’ jack.
If you took offense to that, again, I apologize. Didn’t mean anything by it. If you’d like to respond to the many, many points I have made and substantiated with fact, I’d be happy to debate.
I think in particular, the fact that he’s throwing 20-30% fewer fastballs is a big key that a lot of people gloss over. He wasn’t that bad in Seattle, and he’s changed his game significantly since then as well.
Funny way of apologizing.
You’re also saying, I guess, that you can say anything about anyone, and as long as you’re not accusing that person of a CRIME it’s cool.
But then, I’m just pointing out your ignor … eh, forget it. What’s the point.
I apologized and explained where I was coming from. I don’t think ‘ignorance’ is necessarily a an insult. You do, clearly, and I apologize for offending you (third time).
I think it’s clear you aren’t that up on advanced metrics (which is totally fine), and therefore you put more stock in Silva’s awful 2008 and 2009 ERA than need be. That’s what I’m trying to explain.
My point is this: it’s not devotion, and it’s not stunning. It’s looking at his career profile in great depth and with a clear mind. EVERYONE made snap judgements about the guy from his ugly ERA in Seattle in 2008 and 2009 and I get that. But a deeper digging into his stats shows he wasn’t really that bad, and he actually was quite good last year. Unless Cashner absolutely destroys spring training, Silva’s the guy for now. That’s subject to change, as everything is.
Him getting demoted to the pen is meaningless. Obviously the Mariners used him terribly, and signed him to a contract that was far richer than he was worth. If your argument is AGAIN “but but but the Mariners did THIS” then I think you’re grasping at nothing.
The Mariners are the same team that had him throwing fastballs 83% of the time when it was one of the worst pitches in Major League Baseball and he had two superior offerings to give. What the Mariners did or did not do is immaterial. We’re smart enough to decide for ourselves what to do with him based on the metrics at hand. We don’t need to ring up Bill Bivasi circa 2009 to see what the scoop is on Carlos Silva.
Also, Silva underwent a MAJOR change when he came to Chicago. He stopped throwing his terrible fastball 75% of the time (as he was doing in his Seattle days) and threw it only 54% of the time last year.
He threw his slider and changeup (his best pitches) more and held back on tossing that terrible fastball over 3/4s of the time. The result was a remarkably different pitcher from the one who you’re referring to, and one who was VERY effective.
There was a very significant
split in his results depending on the catcher and whether it was at Wrigley or away. Small sample size but a very noticeable differential.
In the end, it all depends on Silva. If he feels his career is likely over and he comes to camp overweight and out of shape, he’ll just be taking up space on the bus.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
I'd like to see Cash in there.
Or Silva.
Quite honestly, had we not signed Kerry Wood then I would rather have had Cash in the ’pen and Silva in the rotation. Only problem with having Cash in the rotation is: what do you do with Silva?
Keep that Q Train rollin' in '11. Let's win it for Ronnie.
I like Ryan Dempster
tremendously as a fighter, terrific person, and a solid pitcher.
But this: …OK, so the series didn’t work out. But the choice of starting pitchers, I believe, was correct.
I cannot agree. The start in the 2008 series, culminating in the Loney Grand Slam, was just a terrible exhibition of pitching when the team needed him most to come through.
He has not “earned” anything really from me, except tremendous respect for the way he has conducted his life during incredible family trauma.
by The E-Man on Feb 14, 2011 11:23 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Lilly in Game 1, 2 and 3
Ted Lilly in relief and Ted Lilly pinch hitting also. Ted Lilly managing, coaching and announcing.
I don’t think Dempster was the wrong choice., but Lou should have pulled him after the 3rd or 4th inning when it was apparent to EVERBODY that Demp just didn’t have it that night.
by Southside Steve on Feb 14, 2011 11:47 AM CST up reply actions
I completely agree with this post.
I am still pissed at Dempster for his performance in this game. If memory serves me he walked 7 batters trying to get them to bite on a pitch that you could tell they were aware was coming and they were not biting on. You can’t walk 7 batters in any game let alone the playoffs!
Dallas Green!
Lilly in Game 1, 2 and 3
Ted Lilly in relief and Ted Lilly pinch hitting also. Ted Lilly managing, coaching and announcing.
I don’t think Dempster was the wrong choice., but Lou should have pulled him after the 3rd or 4th inning when it was apparent to EVERBODY that Demp just didn’t have it that night.
by Southside Steve on Feb 14, 2011 11:46 AM CST reply actions
Who voted for Wellemeyer, Diamond and Looper?
Seriously.
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answer: Wellemeyer, Diamond and Looper
they’re lurking on BCB between workouts…
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Must be a lot of family members of theirs, too.
They all have more than one vote.
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Somehow ...
I wouldn’t be shocked if Looper makes the rotation. I have no confidence in Carlos Silva, if Shark or Russell make the team, they’ll be in the pen, Coleman is no sure thing and the Cubs might want to stretch Cashner out in Iowa. Diamond and Wellemyer don’t have a prayer and Carpenter will start in the minors.
That could allow Looper to sneak in. I’m not saying he’ll be good, but if he outpitches Coleman …
See below...
the first item on your list (no confidence in Silva) is looking pretty accurate.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
Well, it is Valentine's Day
Maybe Mrs. Wellemeyer, Diamond and Looper.
Let them get their love, just this one day of teh year.
by Southside Steve on Feb 14, 2011 12:08 PM CST up reply actions
Silva
According to David Schuster of WSCR, Silva has been pulled from his workouts today with 102 degree fever. Schuster also reported that Silva seemingly is more overweight than he was last year.
DL here he comes!
I’ll wager that somehow Silva starts the year on the DL.
by tom veryzer on Feb 14, 2011 12:31 PM CST up reply actions
That's really shocking.
You’d think, after his health issues of last year, he’d have tried to get in better shape — for, you know, staying alive, never mind playing baseball.
It seems very likely, as noted above, that he may start the year on the DL.
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How is it POSSIBLY acceptable to show up even more overweight?
I can’t even think of a workplace analogy, because it would be like actively doing something to make you less prepared. Like unlearning Excel.
For the amount of money he’s getting paid, it’s nothing short of insulting to show up to camp overweight and out of shape. When you can easily afford trainers, chefs, and/or dietitians, you have ZERO excuse.
If I’m Hendry/Quade (and maybe even TR), I’d be livid.
Silva's character got some spit and polish last spring ...
but he’s never been known as a high-character guy. That’s another reason why no one should have expected much from him going into 2011.
Of course, gaining MORE weight is downright amazing.
Not disagreeing with you
but when someone has the issues that Silva has, it is really hard to lose the weight and get in shape. You really have to be motivated. Considering the millions he is making, Silva doesn’t seem to have much motivation. He comes to camp, goes to the DL (potentially for the entire year) and collects his millions. He can then retire after this year and live his remaining years very wealthy.
Compare this to Gil Meche who felt he couldn’t come back and walked away from $10 million.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
...
He comes to camp, goes to the DL (potentially for the entire year) and collects his millions. He can then retire after this year and live his remaining years very wealthy.
And if that’s the case, Cubs management should, as I said, be absolutely livid.
No, they should just treat it as "lesson learned"...
… because had they not made the [name redacted] signing, Carlos Silva would not be a Cub today.
Just resolve never to make deals like that one again.
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I don't know if it's that simple.
The Cubs clearly shouldn’t sign somebody like MB ever again. But the other lesson to be learned is that the Cubs should make sure that a $6 million starting pitcher with heart problems and other injuries stays in shape during the offseason.
There’s more than one lesson to be learned here.
But what can they do?
If Silva’s contract does not have a weight clause or something like that, they are limited on what they can do. He also has the heart condition to fall back on. How could he work out if he was recovering from a heart problem?
I’m more than willing to blame Hendry and the Cubs for dumb things but I’m not sure there is much they can do here.
This sort of thing happens in all sports. See Albert Haynesworth for example.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
Yeah, you might be right.
Do MLB teams have any authority over players during the offseason? It seems like they should, but if not …
I'm sure there are general clauses about keeping in shape, etc.
but the player’s union would strongly fight if the Cubs tried to hold back money. Also the heart condition makes it tougher. As I mentioned earlier, he could claim his workouts had to be limited based on the heart condition. Just cutting him might be the best option.
Hendry can think off it as the final bill for his dinner two and a half years ago.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
Exactly.
For those who think I never criticize Cubs players, Silva just HAS to be in shape. If he’s out of shape and leaning on the heart condition and saying he can’t work out because of it — well then, he’s not in shape to play major league baseball. Maybe the Cubs can get out of some of the deal based on that.
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Oh come on.
1) As elgato noted above, it’s not that simple.
2) They did make that signing, and as a result, Carlos Silva IS a Cub today. The Cubs are paying him $6 million. For him to show up overweight and out of shape is a slap in the face. He’s basically saying, ‘You have to pay me millions of dollars whether or not I’m terrible, so why should I care about pitching well?’
3) I wouldn’t want this type of attitude anywhere near my young players. I wonder if they’d consider just cutting him? I know there’s the whole ‘well we’re already paying him, so we might as well try and get our money’s worth’ argument… but sometimes that just compounds the problem. Like it’s not enough that Samardzija is getting paid, but we have to let him suck it up at the ML level, too?
Or Andy Petite
who was honest that he wasnt gonna be 100% committed.
Let's pull back the reigns a little bit here.
If Silva is sick… that could be any number of common one to three day ailments.
And we have one guy reporting that Silva is “seemingly” more overweight, which would directly contradict most of the reports from the Cubs Convention. Silva’s never going to look good in a uniform.
This just seems like a whole lot of jumping to conclusions for a first half of a first day of workouts. If Silva eats his way to the DL… then let’s fire away.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
What reports from the Cubs convention?
I heard just the opposite — that Silva looked heavier.
Someone in this thread made a mention.
And I thought I remembered one of the Bruces saying he looked a little better.
But I certainly could be wrong and/or misremembering.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
Well, completely misread that post. Apologies... and retraction.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
No problem.
I didn’t see Silva, for the record. But some report I read or heard said he looked bigger.
Well I'm not at Spring Training.
So all I can do right now is go off the reports from people in Mesa.
What's your point?
People are getting completely bent out of shape by ONE radio report (not reports, plural) and a fever.
Like I said… if he gained 12 pounds of blubber and pulls his hamstring tying his shoes… fire away.
I guess this is just the way people (over) react in a Tweet culture.
"Stuff like this is why they should shut off the internet."
by Orval Overall on Dec 17, 2010 1:19 PM CST
All I've been saying is that IF he is out of shape, Cubs management should be pissed.
My entire ‘argument’ is based on this report. If it turns out to be false, then ignore what I said about him.
You'd think his contract would require him to stay in decent shape.
If he’s fatter than last year, that’s awfully fat. I thought the heart scare would have motivated him to drop some weight.
"I always tell the truth -- Even when I lie" -- Tony Montana
Why do players
who are paid millions to play baseball show up out of shape? I’ve never understood that.
A lovely story:
One day, long, long ago, there lived a woman who didn't whine, nag or bitch. That would be me....
But that was a long time ago and it was just that one day.
The end
Well that's true
but I guess I would have enough respect for my employer who is paying me millions to show up in shape ready to work.
A lovely story:
One day, long, long ago, there lived a woman who didn't whine, nag or bitch. That would be me....
But that was a long time ago and it was just that one day.
The end
For Astros fans and conspiracy theorist
Today on my Cubs Daily Calendar:
On September 14, 2008, Cubs pitcher Carlos Zambrano pitched a no-hitter against the Houston Astros at Milwaukee’s Miller Park. It was the first-ever neutral-site no-hitter, as the Astros were forced to relocate the game due to Hurricane Ike.
And I love a sentence with back-to-back-to-back hyphens in it!
"Easy on the words, brother,'' Quade said.
Tom Gorzellany
Oh yeah…forgot.
"I think part of a best friend's job should be to immediately clear your computer history if you die." - Anonymous
Silva is not helping his cause
According to a Carrie Muskat tweet, he left early today because he is sick
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
See above.
This is already being discussed in this thread.
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Yeah I noticed
Figured that’s why people weren’t responding :)
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
Cashner needs the ball every fifth day
to work on being a Starting Pitcher. Results on any given day shouldn’t deny him getting the ball the next time around.
This should be done in Iowa.
I picked Coleman
I like Cashner in mid-relief and also I think Silva will not be healthy enough to come back in a major role for the Cubs. I think it was hard for any of our pitchers last year to show their best stuff. Our manager was not in the game and caused the team to not be in the game till the end of the season when Quade took over….IMHO.
"Well-behaved women seldom make History"---Laurel Thatcher Ulrich
But why not let Cashner get a try at starting?
At least in Iowa. If he pitches well he could be called up fairly quick, I’m not to confident in Silva holding down a rotation spot for too long…..
I picked Coleman.
Now that he’s tweeting, he’s my new favorite player. So, you see, my Cubs player allegiance can be bought with a simple twitter account.
Baseball is back!!
^-^ I hope he sees this
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
"My favorite food is Macaroni and Cheese, from the blue box." Geovany Soto
Working backwards
Marmol, Wood, and Marshall in the 9th, 8th and 7th. Where does that leave Cashner? I can’t see his value as a long man. If he’s the 5th starter, that moves Silva to a permanent DL or waiver. Is Hendry willing to face that issue?
I presume Coleman goes to Iowa along with Carpenter, Looper, Wellemeyer and Diamond. I’d think the team starts Cashner in Iowa for a few months and uses Coleman to see if his stuff will be good enough. Short leash but it allows Cashner time to get into starting shape and work on that additional pitch. Shark and Russel in the pen.
If a quality pitching start is 3 runs and 6 innings, then a quality hitting day is 1 for 4.
Good question, Al, and great conservation, BCBers.
My answer:
Silva earned the spot. But if he (or another) start to fail, plug in a rookie. Don’t yank them between starter and closer (didn’t we do that with Marshall & Hill??), put them in the starter’s role and let them keep it. This isn’t the year to be screwing with youngsters’ minds; this is the year to prepare for 2012.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Feb 14, 2011 5:07 PM CST reply actions 3 recs
It's nice to know that we're all in favor of conservation.
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Coleman
I just like the make up of the kid. He appears to have more knowledge on how to pitch than Russell, Shark and Cashner. Silva will have a roster spot and most likely will be spending the majority of it on the DL.
i wonder
about randy wells status and the silva situation. those 2 might push cashner back to the pen. i would like to see cashner get a shot. and samarzja should be considered a failed experiment. and im sure i spelled his name wrong too.
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