In the previous PECOTA thread, there were some numbers that listed the projected standings for 2011, but they were actually old data from last season. The actual numbers have just been released and they're a combination of good news and bad news.
St. Louis 87-75
Cincinnati 82-80 [EDIT: now 81-81]
CUBS 79-83 [EDIT: now 80-82]
The bad news is obvious: 79 wins and fourth place. I think a lot of us would agree with this. The good news is that there isn't a powerhouse in the division and that only eight games separate the top four teams.
These numbers are saying "We've got a lot of work to do, but don't give up. It's still possible."