Fantasy 411 Projections are In

by subtle on Feb 19, 2011 2:55 PM CST

They are high on Pena and not so keen on Soto

Fantasy 411, which is affiliated with the MLB Network, has released their player projections for 2011. They are projecting 32 dingers for Carlos Pena with a .233/.353/.473 line. They are predicting a pretty big regression for Geovany Soto with a .268/.343/.460 line. This is probably due to the fact that Soto's 2009 season was so bad that it throws off any attempt at statistical projections for him.

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/archives/2011/02/2011_composite_projections_10.html

Here is the rest of the Cubs projected starting lineup:

Kosuke Fukudome: .258/.365/.406 11 HR
Alfonso Soriano: .257/.319/.464 23 HR
Tyler Colvin: .255/.309/.459 17 HR
Aramis Ramirez: .275/.342/.474 24 HR
Marlon Byrd: .283/.338/.425
Starlin Castro: .290/.337/.388
Blake DeWitt: .260/.332/.375

II think, or hope, Colvin will at least match his .OBP from last year. Byrd is due for a regression. I agree with Ramirez coming in under his career averages, since he's getting older, but he will be much better than last year.

Poll

Will Geovany Soto regress in 2011?

Yes, but only slightly.

24 votes

Yes, he will fall back to 2009 levels of production.

0 votes

No, he will improve on 2010.

64 votes

No, he will have his best season ever.

12 votes

100 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Comments

Blake DeWitt, leadoff candidate...

I firmly believe in Soto’s ability to repeat last year’s level of production. His counting numbers could look a good bit better if he can stay healthy, get more playing time, and bat higher in the lineup. There are a lot of explanations for his poor 2009 performance: poor conditioning, bad luck (.246 BABIP), and shoulder and hand injuries. If Soto is healthy and in shape, I expect another big season.

by Bradsbeard on Feb 19, 2011 3:40 PM CST reply actions

DeWitt...

if DeWitt can put about 12 dingers and 50+ RBIs with those numbers, I’d be happy…just NOT leading off.

"I think part of a best friend's job should be to immediately clear your computer history if you die." - Anonymous

by Easy Ed on Feb 20, 2011 12:10 AM CST reply actions

Agree.

DeWitt should bat 8th.

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by Al Yellon on Feb 20, 2011 8:13 AM CST up reply actions

I'd prefer not DeWitt not batting at all.

I Heart Barney.

Regarding fantasy projections, do they have a formula where they just end up deducting a certain pecentage of every batter’s HR totals? I don’t seem to recall them predicting a hitter will hit more HRs the following season.

"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman

by BucknerKongCardenal on Feb 20, 2011 3:57 PM CST up reply actions

I expect Soto to be pretty productive when in the lineup

I just don’t expect him to be in the lineup enough

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Feb 20, 2011 9:10 AM CST reply actions

my question is...

why won’t the Cubs used him in a way that other teams use their offensively talented catchers? Guys like Mauer and McCann average 140 games a year…why won’t the Cubs run Geo out that often? They did that in 2008 and he had his best year. I know injuries, pot and fatness played a part in some of it in ‘09 and ’10, but I think it would be silly for him to be given a lot of days off this season if healthy and in shape. And by all accounts he’s both of those…It just seems like a lot of people here don’t believe they’ll run him out there enough. Has there been any indication that Quade is planning on sitting him a lot?

by Lows05 on Feb 22, 2011 9:40 AM CST up reply actions